2010-2011 BYU Men's Basketball Preview

Frontcourt
The Players
The Fives: Brandon Davies and James Anderson
The Fours: Noah Hartsock, Chris Collinsworth, Logan Magnusson, and Stephen Rogers

The Strengths
This is a great shooting group of big men between 6 and 15 feet.  Stephen Rogers is supposed to a real threat from the outside, but he looked very "raw" against BYU-Hawaii.  This group has speed, relative athleticism, and length.  Several of the Fours are pretty thick/well put together.  It is definitely a hustle group as well.  They draw charges pretty well.

The Weaknesses
None of these guys is a real back-to-the-basket threat, and getting points around the rim is vital for an outside shooting team: there will be off nights shooting the rock.  Rebounding on either end of the court is going to be an issue as well.  Defensively, there are some question marks as well.  Davies is not a physical presence down low and Anderson is uncoordinated and unathletic.  Noah Hartsock is the only one I would call anything close to a shot-blocker.  The rest try to draw charges too much.  Collinsworth will be the wildcard here.

Backcourt
The Players
The Threes: Charles Abouo, Kyle Collinsworth, and Brock Zylstra
The Twos: Jackson Emery (no true backups, but all of the Threes and Ones can play two)
The Ones: Jimmer Fredette, Nick Martineau, and Anson Winder

Strengths
Fredette is legendary at finishing around the rim.  Abouo and Collinsworth both have ability to finish around the rim.  Jackson is a sharp-shooter from the outside.  Winder is the "energy" guy, because of his amazing quickness: like a young Michael Loyd Jr.  And let's just be clear: Jimmer is the most amazing player I have ever seen put on a BYU uniform.  He can shoot, drive, draw contact and defenders, and pass extremely well.  Martineau and Winder will be wildcards for this team.  Whatever contributions they can make will just take the team to an even higher level.

Weaknesses
Too many of these guys are one-dimensional players.  They are either penetrators or shooters, but not both.  They are either perimeter defenders or good down low, but not both.  The Threes are the biggest defensive liability: Abouo can be taken off the dribble, Collinsworth is a freshman (who are notorious for being unpolished defenders), and Zylstra was the 13th man last season for a reason.

Schedule/Opponents
Non-conference opponents
The following games could give BYU some trouble: Utah State, vs. South Florida, at Creighton, vs. Arizona, at UCLA, and at Weber State.  The two trips to New York to take on Vermont in Glens Falls and then later at Buffalo could also prove daunting tasks.  BYU also has a matchup with either Texas Tech or St. Mary's in their Thanksgiving tournament.  If BYU can finish their non-conference schedule at 11-3, they would have done a solid job as far as giving themselves a chance for a single-digit seed in the NCAA Tournament is concerned.  Anything better than that would be gravy.  Anything worse than that and they would need a stellar MWC season to make up for it.  BYU certainly could win each of the games on the schedule, and will probably be favored in at least 12 or 13 of them, if not all of them depending on how things go.

Conference outlook
San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico all look tough on paper.  New Mexico had a lot of lucky bounces (and calls) go their way last year and lost several major contributors, including Roman Martinez who was my clutch performer of the year in the MWC.  They will need to gel quickly for that thing to work in Albuquerque.  Even then, I cannot imagine they will do as well as last season.  I would anticipate BYU to be able to sweep the other 5 teams and go 10-0.  At that point, if BYU can hold serve at home against the other 3 contenders, they would be in prime position for a conference title, even going 0-3 on the road against SDSU, UNLV, and UNM.  UNLV and New Mexico have not gone quietly into the night at the Marriott Center the past two seasons, so even that may prove to be a difficult task.

Fours and Fiv es on the schedule
Since I believe the defense in the post will be the biggest weakness for BYU this season, here is a look at some of the great, experienced post players BYU will see this season: Greg Smith (Fresno State), Tai Wesley and Nate Bendall (Utah State), Jared Famous and Augustus Gilchrist (USF), Kenny Lawson Jr. (Creighton), and Derrick Williams (Arizona).  These are the players BYU will need to hold in check to have a great non-conference season: any of these guys gets a double-double and BYU will struggle to win that game.
In the MWC: Billy White (SDSU), AJ Hardeman (New Mexico), Bryce Massamba (UNLV: marginal, only as good as his offensive rebounding), and David Foster (Utah: marginal, not a great offensive skill set, but he is 7 foot 3 inches tall, that counts for something).  These are the only real "bruisers" in the conference.  I realize there are others at CSU and Wyoming, but those teams don't pose much of a threat, so if the big men get 20-10, it'd still be tough for them to beat BYU.

Predictions
I believe that BYU could get to 26-5 prior to the MWC tournament.  I think they will either be eliminated from the tourney in the semifinals or else win it all, depending on matchups: so they will head into the NCAA tournament at 27-6 or 29-5.  At 27-6, they would be in the 6-8 range as far as seed.  At 29-5, they are probably in the 3-5 range.  If they are seeded 6-8, they will win a game before getting bounced.  If they are seeded 3-5, they can get to the Sweet 16.  And once you get to the Sweet 16, anything can happen.  However, by the Elite Eight, they will certainly have run into a Jacob Pullen, Kyle Singler, or JaJuan Johnson-type (or any dominant center), and will be eliminated.