I said: Wyoming 23, SDSU 20
Actual: SDSU 48, Wyoming 38
Note: I guess I overestimated the defenses. Oh, and I picked the wrong winner.
I said: CSU 34, New Mexico 10
Actual: CSU 38, New Mexico 14
Note: I guess I overestimated red zone defenses here. I figured CSU would score 6 times: 4 TDs and 2 FGs. They got 5 TDs and 1 FG. I figured New Mexico would score twice: 1 TD, 1 FG. They got 2 TDs. I'll try to tighten that up next week.
I said: Utah 27, Air Force 24
Actual: Utah 28, Air Force 23
Note: Utah survived. That is all they needed to do. 5 turnovers for Air Force and they still had a chance to win? Well played by the Falcons.
I said: TCU 45, UNLV 3
Actual: TCU 48, UNLV 6
Note: I am going to stand by my performance on this one. Win by 42, one team in the 40's, the other in single digits. What more do you want, people?
That takes me to 42-5 for the MWC this season. I said that 3 of the unbeaten BCS teams would lose this weekend. Only 2 of them lost. As a result, Boise State will not crack the top 2. TCU gained some ground on the polls, and I don't imagine there will be much change to the computer rankings. It might be enough for TCU to jump Boise in tonight's release of the BCS standings, which I believe will only be a temporary jump, even if both win out. I will explain why Boise State is the best non-AQ chance for a National Championship appearance next week.
Sunday, October 31, 2010
Friday, October 29, 2010
MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Nine
Why it Matters
This is a big weekend for me: my preseason predictions are on the line. I made two sets of predictions, the first right after spring ball ended, and another updated one just after week one. My spring ball predictions look nicer right now, with the exception of UNLV and SDSU. The links to those predictions are below.
Spring ball: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/04/mwc-football-outlook-2010.html
After Week One: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/09/thursday-thoughts.html
San Diego State at Wyoming
After spring ball, I picked Wyoming to win this game. 1 game into the season, I picked SDSU. Right now, SDSU would appear to be the team to go with. SDSU 5-2 on the season, while Wyoming is 2-6. SDSU is scoring points. They are stopping opponents from scoring. Wyoming's offense only managed 10 points against BYU. Their defense allowed BYU to score 25 points. The weather is supposed to be decent for this game on the high plains of Laramie, so there goes one advantage. They still have the altitude though. There is no statistical reason for my selection, but I'm going with my gut. Wyoming beats SDSU, 23-20.
New Mexico at Colorado State
Loser of this game is likely the 9th place finisher in the league. I had New Mexico losing this in both predictions. I see no reason to change that thought-process based on what I have seen. CSU wins big at home, 34-10.
Utah at Air Force
I switched back and forth on this one in my predictions, having Air Force initially, then Utah after week one. Utah looks the better team right now. But if the game is close, Air Force has been more battle-tested. In the midst of those tests, however, they lost the cog of their offense: Jared Tew. TCU blew Air Force out on the road last week. Will a little home-cooking be enough to reverse those fortunes? There will be several thousand Ute fans in the stands for this one in Colorado Springs. Will Air Force benefit from playing Utah a week before the big showdown against TCU? Perhaps Utah is overlooking them. Which side will win the key battle: the #1 rushing offense vs. the #6 rushing defense? I am guessing there will be some give and take: Utah will give up more rushing yards than they are used to, Air Force will probably not rush for as much as they are used to. Air Force probably needs to rush for about 300 yards or force 3 turnovers to have a chance to win this game. Can they do that? History suggests they can do one of those, but not both. However, the games have all been close in the Whittingham era. I do believe that this is probably the best team Utah has had under Whit, and, therefore, has the ability to blow the Falcons out (remember the 2008 team didn't start looking good until mid-November: they were winning games, but they weren't winning them decisively like this year's Utes). I still do not know how to judge this Utah team though against a test like this. They are definitely a very good team, but they'll need to be great to win Saturday in Colorado Springs. I really feel like it is either going to be a blowout win for Utah or Air Force pulls out a close one. Instead, I'll just go with Utah to win: 27-24. Did I cover all of my bases there? Utah, on a late field goal. That's my final answer.
TCU at UNLV
Great team vs. bad team. TCU has not looked as impressive (on either side of the ball) this season as they were last year (statistically speaking it's probably similar though), but they are starting to turn it on at the right time. Even on the road, TCU wins by over 40 points: 45-3.
Bonus Pick
Things will be looking up for Boise State and TCU this weekend. Oregon, Auburn, Michigan State, and Missouri all hit the road this weekend. 3 of them will lose, mark that down! You heard it here first. Boise cracks the top 2 in the BCS on Sunday night. If Utah does win, they may even crack the top 5...maybe.
This is a big weekend for me: my preseason predictions are on the line. I made two sets of predictions, the first right after spring ball ended, and another updated one just after week one. My spring ball predictions look nicer right now, with the exception of UNLV and SDSU. The links to those predictions are below.
Spring ball: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/04/mwc-football-outlook-2010.html
After Week One: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2010/09/thursday-thoughts.html
San Diego State at Wyoming
After spring ball, I picked Wyoming to win this game. 1 game into the season, I picked SDSU. Right now, SDSU would appear to be the team to go with. SDSU 5-2 on the season, while Wyoming is 2-6. SDSU is scoring points. They are stopping opponents from scoring. Wyoming's offense only managed 10 points against BYU. Their defense allowed BYU to score 25 points. The weather is supposed to be decent for this game on the high plains of Laramie, so there goes one advantage. They still have the altitude though. There is no statistical reason for my selection, but I'm going with my gut. Wyoming beats SDSU, 23-20.
New Mexico at Colorado State
Loser of this game is likely the 9th place finisher in the league. I had New Mexico losing this in both predictions. I see no reason to change that thought-process based on what I have seen. CSU wins big at home, 34-10.
Utah at Air Force
I switched back and forth on this one in my predictions, having Air Force initially, then Utah after week one. Utah looks the better team right now. But if the game is close, Air Force has been more battle-tested. In the midst of those tests, however, they lost the cog of their offense: Jared Tew. TCU blew Air Force out on the road last week. Will a little home-cooking be enough to reverse those fortunes? There will be several thousand Ute fans in the stands for this one in Colorado Springs. Will Air Force benefit from playing Utah a week before the big showdown against TCU? Perhaps Utah is overlooking them. Which side will win the key battle: the #1 rushing offense vs. the #6 rushing defense? I am guessing there will be some give and take: Utah will give up more rushing yards than they are used to, Air Force will probably not rush for as much as they are used to. Air Force probably needs to rush for about 300 yards or force 3 turnovers to have a chance to win this game. Can they do that? History suggests they can do one of those, but not both. However, the games have all been close in the Whittingham era. I do believe that this is probably the best team Utah has had under Whit, and, therefore, has the ability to blow the Falcons out (remember the 2008 team didn't start looking good until mid-November: they were winning games, but they weren't winning them decisively like this year's Utes). I still do not know how to judge this Utah team though against a test like this. They are definitely a very good team, but they'll need to be great to win Saturday in Colorado Springs. I really feel like it is either going to be a blowout win for Utah or Air Force pulls out a close one. Instead, I'll just go with Utah to win: 27-24. Did I cover all of my bases there? Utah, on a late field goal. That's my final answer.
TCU at UNLV
Great team vs. bad team. TCU has not looked as impressive (on either side of the ball) this season as they were last year (statistically speaking it's probably similar though), but they are starting to turn it on at the right time. Even on the road, TCU wins by over 40 points: 45-3.
Bonus Pick
Things will be looking up for Boise State and TCU this weekend. Oregon, Auburn, Michigan State, and Missouri all hit the road this weekend. 3 of them will lose, mark that down! You heard it here first. Boise cracks the top 2 in the BCS on Sunday night. If Utah does win, they may even crack the top 5...maybe.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Future BYU Football Schedules
Boomer asked for some stuff on BYU's future schedules as an independent. There are a couple of sites that are good for looking at future schedules, though they do not get updated as frequently as I do! Here are a few links:
http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/mtn-west/byu-cougars.php
http://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/future_schedules/brighamyoung_future.htm
National Schedule
BYU has the freedom to move around the country. They will have nationally interesting games with national broadcasts. They currently have Texas, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Utah, Hawaii, West Virginia, Boise State, Oregon State, and UCF, which would all spark some national interest. I would expect the number of teams like that to grow over the coming months and years. They also have 4-5 current WAC teams on their future schedules the next few years. Boomer, there are your easy wins.
Going East
I am guessing that BYU will try to schedule a Big East or ACC road game for 2013 (assuming conference expansion doesn't completely change the picture between now and then). BYU is making trips east of the Mississippi in 2011, 2012 (two), 2013, 2014 (two), and 2016. It looks like they are trying to get back east/south at least twice a year, wherever possible. After BYU's two basketball games this December in New York, we'll have a better idea of how enthusiastic Cougar fans in New England are about the university. That could spark discussions with Army, Syracuse, or Rutgers for a 2013 game.
Rough September
They will have very difficult September schedules for the foreseeable future. I think that trend will continue: BYU's best chance to get big games is in September since everyone else is in conference play in October and November. They will probably play at least 4 bowl teams every September. If BYU ever starts 4-0, they will have a good shot to run the table! And if they do that, they would have a good argument to belong in the National Championship discussion. Remember, I said "if." Twice.
Holy 2014
2014 looks particularly overwhelming already. BYU only has four games scheduled, but all four are on the road against what figures to be quality opponents. They play at Texas, at Boise State, at UCF, and at Georgia Tech. It is tough to know exactly what those schools will look like 4 years from now, but I cannot imagine that a schedule like that will be anything but extremely tough. Probably add Utah to that as well (2014 would be in Salt Lake City, if the rotation continues). Heaps would graduate in 2013, so BYU will probably (hopefully, that means Heaps stayed healthy and was good...) be breaking in a new QB that season as well. A home game against Notre Dame is also a possibility. The BYU-WAC agreement has not yet extended into 2014, but, if the conference survives, I imagine BYU will add 2-4 schools from there too. Utah State and Hawaii, I imagine, are teams that BYU wants to play each year, that want to play them as well. I would potentially put UTEP, from Conference USA, in that category as well. They have a healthy rivalry that would generate a lot of interest from fanbases. Plus, BYU needs to keep playing in Texas.
http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa/mtn-west/byu-cougars.php
http://www.nationalchamps.net/NCAA/future_schedules/brighamyoung_future.htm
National Schedule
BYU has the freedom to move around the country. They will have nationally interesting games with national broadcasts. They currently have Texas, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Utah, Hawaii, West Virginia, Boise State, Oregon State, and UCF, which would all spark some national interest. I would expect the number of teams like that to grow over the coming months and years. They also have 4-5 current WAC teams on their future schedules the next few years. Boomer, there are your easy wins.
Going East
I am guessing that BYU will try to schedule a Big East or ACC road game for 2013 (assuming conference expansion doesn't completely change the picture between now and then). BYU is making trips east of the Mississippi in 2011, 2012 (two), 2013, 2014 (two), and 2016. It looks like they are trying to get back east/south at least twice a year, wherever possible. After BYU's two basketball games this December in New York, we'll have a better idea of how enthusiastic Cougar fans in New England are about the university. That could spark discussions with Army, Syracuse, or Rutgers for a 2013 game.
Rough September
They will have very difficult September schedules for the foreseeable future. I think that trend will continue: BYU's best chance to get big games is in September since everyone else is in conference play in October and November. They will probably play at least 4 bowl teams every September. If BYU ever starts 4-0, they will have a good shot to run the table! And if they do that, they would have a good argument to belong in the National Championship discussion. Remember, I said "if." Twice.
Holy 2014
2014 looks particularly overwhelming already. BYU only has four games scheduled, but all four are on the road against what figures to be quality opponents. They play at Texas, at Boise State, at UCF, and at Georgia Tech. It is tough to know exactly what those schools will look like 4 years from now, but I cannot imagine that a schedule like that will be anything but extremely tough. Probably add Utah to that as well (2014 would be in Salt Lake City, if the rotation continues). Heaps would graduate in 2013, so BYU will probably (hopefully, that means Heaps stayed healthy and was good...) be breaking in a new QB that season as well. A home game against Notre Dame is also a possibility. The BYU-WAC agreement has not yet extended into 2014, but, if the conference survives, I imagine BYU will add 2-4 schools from there too. Utah State and Hawaii, I imagine, are teams that BYU wants to play each year, that want to play them as well. I would potentially put UTEP, from Conference USA, in that category as well. They have a healthy rivalry that would generate a lot of interest from fanbases. Plus, BYU needs to keep playing in Texas.
Thursday Thoughts, 2010 Week Nine
Bad News for MWC, Good News for BYU
It has been unofficially announced that Nevada and Fresno State will remain in the WAC for the 2011 season. This means that the MWC will only have 8 schools next season, meaning they will play only 7 conference games. Up until this point, MWC schools have always played 8 conference games. That means that all 8 schools will have to scramble to find an extra non-conference game next season. Could that open the door for BYU to find another game or two? Possibly.
SDSU and TCU have both stated that they have no desire to play BYU again. I have said before that I think Air Force and CSU would be the only schools that would be interested in playing BYU. I would probably add Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV to that list now, especially since it is BYU's "turn" to go play them on the road. If BYU could get a home game with Air Force or CSU and add a road game (probably coupled with a 2013 home game) against one of the latter 3 schools, that would put 12 games on BYU's 2011 schedule: 7 home games and 5 road games. At that point the schedule could be full.
BYU could still add a 13th game, probably with an FCS school. I would recommend San Diego, one of their WCC brethren (the only WCC school that still has a football program). Holmoe has said he wouldn't schedule 13 games in 2011 if it didn't make sense: what could make more sense than adding two familiar, regional opponents, and helping one of your conference opponents with a little cash revenue. That makes sense to me.
What the Uribe?
I had Juan Uribe on my fantasy baseball team most of the season. Now, the fantasy season is over, so he's decided to have a phenomenal streak at the plate in the playoffs, the likes of which I didn't see from him all season. I didn't realize I was holding the guy back so much. With my mad fantasy skills of making players continually play below their potential, next year, I'm taking all Yankees! Go Sox!
Game One was Awesome! Encore!
While it wasn't the pitcher's duel everyone expected, it sure was a fun game! 18 runs, 6 errors, 12 pitchers, and all the enthusiasm of a school-yard game. Watching from the safety of my couch, I could tell these guys were excited (and very nervous) about their first time on that big of a stage. I watched 6 of the 9 innings of the game. I picked the wrong 6 innings! I only saw 3 runs scored...I am very much missing my DVR. Nothing beats watching a baseball game on fast-forward: in 45 minutes you get all of the action, without any of the lame commentary by Buck and McCarver!
I Love October
So much going on in the sports world in October. MLB playoffs going on. NFL season in full swing. College football still going strong. NBA kicks off. One of my favorite parts of it: Rockies fans being sad as their late-season push is doomed again by another pathetic start to the season, Bronco fans lamenting yet another poor showing, Thuggets fans getting their hopes up just in time for another crushing playoff defeat, Colorado Avalanche fans getting upset with another overtime loss (23 seconds into the extra period, mind you), and fans of the CU Buffs calling for their current coach to be fired because they still haven't been relevant for 20 years no matter who is at the helm. It's a great time in Denver! We have all the major sports. The fans of those teams blindly cheer for them. And all they can really talk about is the Broncos and Avs teams of the late 90's. Reminds me of the North Side of Chicago (except we're talking about our Bulls of the 90's and the Cubs of the 1890's)!
Elimination Saturday
A lot of teams are facing must win-situations this weekend. That makes for desparation, which makes for good college football. Nebraska must beat Mizzou to stay alive in the Big XII North race. The loser of Florida-Georgia is out of the SEC East race. Stanford must win on the road at Washington to have any chance at the Rose Bowl, and Washington must beat Stanford to have any realistic shot at a bowl game. NC State needs to take out Florida State to keep pace in the ACC Atlantic. West Virginia must win at perennially overrated UConn for a shot at the Big East title. Michigan State at Iowa has huge Big Ten implications (and if Iowa pulls it out, there will be a mammoth logjam at the top of the Big Ten standings with 4 or 5 teams sitting with only 1 loss). BCS #1 Auburn must hit the road for the second time this season (must be nice). Baylor travels to Texas trying to put a stranglehold on the Big XII South top spot. Yes, you read that correctly. Oregon is at USC. Utah at Air Force, ahead of a showdown with TCU next weekend. You read it here first: desparation makes for great Saturdays! There is going to be a lot of desparation the next month! Buckle up and enjoy the ride!
It has been unofficially announced that Nevada and Fresno State will remain in the WAC for the 2011 season. This means that the MWC will only have 8 schools next season, meaning they will play only 7 conference games. Up until this point, MWC schools have always played 8 conference games. That means that all 8 schools will have to scramble to find an extra non-conference game next season. Could that open the door for BYU to find another game or two? Possibly.
SDSU and TCU have both stated that they have no desire to play BYU again. I have said before that I think Air Force and CSU would be the only schools that would be interested in playing BYU. I would probably add Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV to that list now, especially since it is BYU's "turn" to go play them on the road. If BYU could get a home game with Air Force or CSU and add a road game (probably coupled with a 2013 home game) against one of the latter 3 schools, that would put 12 games on BYU's 2011 schedule: 7 home games and 5 road games. At that point the schedule could be full.
BYU could still add a 13th game, probably with an FCS school. I would recommend San Diego, one of their WCC brethren (the only WCC school that still has a football program). Holmoe has said he wouldn't schedule 13 games in 2011 if it didn't make sense: what could make more sense than adding two familiar, regional opponents, and helping one of your conference opponents with a little cash revenue. That makes sense to me.
What the Uribe?
I had Juan Uribe on my fantasy baseball team most of the season. Now, the fantasy season is over, so he's decided to have a phenomenal streak at the plate in the playoffs, the likes of which I didn't see from him all season. I didn't realize I was holding the guy back so much. With my mad fantasy skills of making players continually play below their potential, next year, I'm taking all Yankees! Go Sox!
Game One was Awesome! Encore!
While it wasn't the pitcher's duel everyone expected, it sure was a fun game! 18 runs, 6 errors, 12 pitchers, and all the enthusiasm of a school-yard game. Watching from the safety of my couch, I could tell these guys were excited (and very nervous) about their first time on that big of a stage. I watched 6 of the 9 innings of the game. I picked the wrong 6 innings! I only saw 3 runs scored...I am very much missing my DVR. Nothing beats watching a baseball game on fast-forward: in 45 minutes you get all of the action, without any of the lame commentary by Buck and McCarver!
I Love October
So much going on in the sports world in October. MLB playoffs going on. NFL season in full swing. College football still going strong. NBA kicks off. One of my favorite parts of it: Rockies fans being sad as their late-season push is doomed again by another pathetic start to the season, Bronco fans lamenting yet another poor showing, Thuggets fans getting their hopes up just in time for another crushing playoff defeat, Colorado Avalanche fans getting upset with another overtime loss (23 seconds into the extra period, mind you), and fans of the CU Buffs calling for their current coach to be fired because they still haven't been relevant for 20 years no matter who is at the helm. It's a great time in Denver! We have all the major sports. The fans of those teams blindly cheer for them. And all they can really talk about is the Broncos and Avs teams of the late 90's. Reminds me of the North Side of Chicago (except we're talking about our Bulls of the 90's and the Cubs of the 1890's)!
Elimination Saturday
A lot of teams are facing must win-situations this weekend. That makes for desparation, which makes for good college football. Nebraska must beat Mizzou to stay alive in the Big XII North race. The loser of Florida-Georgia is out of the SEC East race. Stanford must win on the road at Washington to have any chance at the Rose Bowl, and Washington must beat Stanford to have any realistic shot at a bowl game. NC State needs to take out Florida State to keep pace in the ACC Atlantic. West Virginia must win at perennially overrated UConn for a shot at the Big East title. Michigan State at Iowa has huge Big Ten implications (and if Iowa pulls it out, there will be a mammoth logjam at the top of the Big Ten standings with 4 or 5 teams sitting with only 1 loss). BCS #1 Auburn must hit the road for the second time this season (must be nice). Baylor travels to Texas trying to put a stranglehold on the Big XII South top spot. Yes, you read that correctly. Oregon is at USC. Utah at Air Force, ahead of a showdown with TCU next weekend. You read it here first: desparation makes for great Saturdays! There is going to be a lot of desparation the next month! Buckle up and enjoy the ride!
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, 2010, Week Nine
The question a lot of people are asking, outside of some die-hard Utah fans who answer only with their hearts, is: can Utah compete in the Pac 12 immediately, in 2011? The short answer is: it depends. The long answer: keep reading!
The Schedule:
What we know
They will play UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado. They will play 4 of the 6 North schools. The North schools are: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California-Berkeley, and Stanford. The non-conference slate SHOULD include: Montana State, at BYU, and at Pittsburgh. Utah has cancelled non-conference games with Iowa State (home) and Boise State (road).
What we don't know
How many of their 9 conference games will be home vs. road? It will be split 5/4 in some fashion. Which of the 4 North schools will they play and where will they play them? At first glance, Washington State is the only team they should beat, regardless of location, the rest are all tough teams and have great home-field crowds. Where will their bye week fall? If it comes too early or too late, there might be issues: if it is too early, they may finish the season with 6 difficult opponents in a row without a break, if it is too late, they may already be eliminated from contention before they have a chance to catch their breath. Will the most difficult opponents be stacked up or spread out? Playing Washington State, Arizona State, and Colorado in consecutive weeks would be nice, but it'd be better to have them spread between the more powerful teams in the conference to allow somewhat of a "break" for the Utes.
The Roster:
What we know
RBs Matt Asiata and Eric Wide are graduating. So are stud WR Jereme Brooks, dangerous KR/PR Shaky Smithson, experienced backup QB Terrence Cain, and ridiculously accurate K Joe Phillips. 2 of the 5 starting OL will graduate as well. QB Jordan Wynn, WR De'Vonte Christopher, RBs Sausin Shakerin and Tauni Vakapuna, and 3 starting OL will return. Having a big, experienced line, a seasoned QB, and a playmaking WR will be huge, especially given the loss of the thousands of rushing yards from the backfield.
Starting DBs Lamar Chapman and Justin Taplin-Ross, LB Chad Manis, and DE Christian Cox are gone from the defense. But it was a mostly young defense this year, and a lot of guys are playing significant minutes. Assuming no defections to the NFL by eligible juniors and redshirt sophomores, LBs Chaz Walker, Matt Martinez, and Boo Anderson, DBs Brian Blechen and Brandon Burton, and DL Sealver Siliga, Dave Kruger, and Derrick Shelby will be back. That is the start of a very solid defense.
What we don't know
Where will the power running game come from? Vakapuna has shown some promise in gaining the tough yards, but that is mostly in garbage time, and 12 games in a Pac 12 schedule is a tough road to hoe, especially for a RB who is supposed to look for contact. What will happen to the passing game if teams can lock down on De'Vonte Christopher? Young WRs Luke Matthews and Griff McNabb and TE Kendrick Moeai have shown some promise, but not much to show that they can carry the load for a full season. Will they have enough depth to survive a much more difficult schedule? The Utes are already thin at WR and RB: one or two injuries at those positions could be devastating. Will their defensive personnel adjust to playing bigger, faster, stronger offenses? They take a lot of risks in the MWC and get away with it because of their superior athletic ability: they will not have superior athletic ability in the Pac 12.
The Pac 12:
What we know
USC still has sanctions levied against it. Colorado, Arizona State, and Washington State are no good this year, with nothing to make anyone believe they will be any good next season. Arizona and Oregon are very senior-heavy teams this year. But Washington, UCLA, and Stanford will be bringing back a lot from this season's much-improved teams. Cal and Oregon State are always tough. Utah definitely ended up in the weaker division of the two, however. Playing four of the six from the other division mitigates that advantage a little bit, unless Oregon and Stanford are the ones they do not play in 2011.
What we don't know
Will USC be able to be good next year, even with the heavy penalties against them? They still have a lot of very good players. Will UCLA improve as much next year as they did this year? They are miles ahead this year from where they were last year, but they still have miles to go. Who will be coaching at Arizona State and Colorado? All assumptions are that those two schools will be going through coaching changes.
My Predictions
Pac 12
The conference will be much weaker at the top. This year there are 3 great teams: Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. At least two of those teams will probably just be good teams next season. Certainly the South is a winnable division for anyone, except probably Colorado and Arizona State. The winner of the North will be the better team in the Championship Game (and will get home field advantage for the Pac 12 Title Game), but they also probably had a more taxing road to get there. USC's appeal is still undecided, but for now, they cannot play in the postseason in 2011, which would include the conference title game.
Utah
The Utes are taking a good defense and an experienced QB to the Pac 12. Certainly, if there were a year for the Utes to join the Pac 12, this is probably as good a team as any to do it with. It also helps that the Pac 12 South will be ripe for the picking. All Utah needs to do is win the division or finish 2nd behind USC to get a shot at the Pac 12 Title Game.
I do not buy into the "Arizona-Arizona State have stunk since their jump to the Pac 10" argument as a reason why Utah cannot compete: this is a different college football world today. It is impossible to compare the jump made by two teams over 30 years ago to one that a team makes today. If the schedule lines up nicely, if Utah can find some quality WRs and RBs already in their system, and if they can stay healthy, there is no reason they could not win the Pac 12 South immediately. If Utah can get into the Pac 12 Title game, then anything can happen.
Without seeing the schedule or knowing the full roster, I feel confident in saying that Utah will NOT play in the National Championship game next season, regardless of what either of those looks like. Winning the Pac 12 South is a possibility, and, because of that, the Rose Bowl is a possibility. I do not believe they will get there in 2011 (there were way too many if's in the preceding paragraph), but it certainly is possible.
The Schedule:
What we know
They will play UCLA, USC, Arizona, Arizona State, and Colorado. They will play 4 of the 6 North schools. The North schools are: Washington, Washington State, Oregon, Oregon State, California-Berkeley, and Stanford. The non-conference slate SHOULD include: Montana State, at BYU, and at Pittsburgh. Utah has cancelled non-conference games with Iowa State (home) and Boise State (road).
What we don't know
How many of their 9 conference games will be home vs. road? It will be split 5/4 in some fashion. Which of the 4 North schools will they play and where will they play them? At first glance, Washington State is the only team they should beat, regardless of location, the rest are all tough teams and have great home-field crowds. Where will their bye week fall? If it comes too early or too late, there might be issues: if it is too early, they may finish the season with 6 difficult opponents in a row without a break, if it is too late, they may already be eliminated from contention before they have a chance to catch their breath. Will the most difficult opponents be stacked up or spread out? Playing Washington State, Arizona State, and Colorado in consecutive weeks would be nice, but it'd be better to have them spread between the more powerful teams in the conference to allow somewhat of a "break" for the Utes.
The Roster:
What we know
RBs Matt Asiata and Eric Wide are graduating. So are stud WR Jereme Brooks, dangerous KR/PR Shaky Smithson, experienced backup QB Terrence Cain, and ridiculously accurate K Joe Phillips. 2 of the 5 starting OL will graduate as well. QB Jordan Wynn, WR De'Vonte Christopher, RBs Sausin Shakerin and Tauni Vakapuna, and 3 starting OL will return. Having a big, experienced line, a seasoned QB, and a playmaking WR will be huge, especially given the loss of the thousands of rushing yards from the backfield.
Starting DBs Lamar Chapman and Justin Taplin-Ross, LB Chad Manis, and DE Christian Cox are gone from the defense. But it was a mostly young defense this year, and a lot of guys are playing significant minutes. Assuming no defections to the NFL by eligible juniors and redshirt sophomores, LBs Chaz Walker, Matt Martinez, and Boo Anderson, DBs Brian Blechen and Brandon Burton, and DL Sealver Siliga, Dave Kruger, and Derrick Shelby will be back. That is the start of a very solid defense.
What we don't know
Where will the power running game come from? Vakapuna has shown some promise in gaining the tough yards, but that is mostly in garbage time, and 12 games in a Pac 12 schedule is a tough road to hoe, especially for a RB who is supposed to look for contact. What will happen to the passing game if teams can lock down on De'Vonte Christopher? Young WRs Luke Matthews and Griff McNabb and TE Kendrick Moeai have shown some promise, but not much to show that they can carry the load for a full season. Will they have enough depth to survive a much more difficult schedule? The Utes are already thin at WR and RB: one or two injuries at those positions could be devastating. Will their defensive personnel adjust to playing bigger, faster, stronger offenses? They take a lot of risks in the MWC and get away with it because of their superior athletic ability: they will not have superior athletic ability in the Pac 12.
The Pac 12:
What we know
USC still has sanctions levied against it. Colorado, Arizona State, and Washington State are no good this year, with nothing to make anyone believe they will be any good next season. Arizona and Oregon are very senior-heavy teams this year. But Washington, UCLA, and Stanford will be bringing back a lot from this season's much-improved teams. Cal and Oregon State are always tough. Utah definitely ended up in the weaker division of the two, however. Playing four of the six from the other division mitigates that advantage a little bit, unless Oregon and Stanford are the ones they do not play in 2011.
What we don't know
Will USC be able to be good next year, even with the heavy penalties against them? They still have a lot of very good players. Will UCLA improve as much next year as they did this year? They are miles ahead this year from where they were last year, but they still have miles to go. Who will be coaching at Arizona State and Colorado? All assumptions are that those two schools will be going through coaching changes.
My Predictions
Pac 12
The conference will be much weaker at the top. This year there are 3 great teams: Oregon, Stanford, and Arizona. At least two of those teams will probably just be good teams next season. Certainly the South is a winnable division for anyone, except probably Colorado and Arizona State. The winner of the North will be the better team in the Championship Game (and will get home field advantage for the Pac 12 Title Game), but they also probably had a more taxing road to get there. USC's appeal is still undecided, but for now, they cannot play in the postseason in 2011, which would include the conference title game.
Utah
The Utes are taking a good defense and an experienced QB to the Pac 12. Certainly, if there were a year for the Utes to join the Pac 12, this is probably as good a team as any to do it with. It also helps that the Pac 12 South will be ripe for the picking. All Utah needs to do is win the division or finish 2nd behind USC to get a shot at the Pac 12 Title Game.
I do not buy into the "Arizona-Arizona State have stunk since their jump to the Pac 10" argument as a reason why Utah cannot compete: this is a different college football world today. It is impossible to compare the jump made by two teams over 30 years ago to one that a team makes today. If the schedule lines up nicely, if Utah can find some quality WRs and RBs already in their system, and if they can stay healthy, there is no reason they could not win the Pac 12 South immediately. If Utah can get into the Pac 12 Title game, then anything can happen.
Without seeing the schedule or knowing the full roster, I feel confident in saying that Utah will NOT play in the National Championship game next season, regardless of what either of those looks like. Winning the Pac 12 South is a possibility, and, because of that, the Rose Bowl is a possibility. I do not believe they will get there in 2011 (there were way too many if's in the preceding paragraph), but it certainly is possible.
Monday, October 25, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Nine
World Series
I am pumped for this World Series matchup. Giants and Rangers: two underdogs, two longshots, two great TEAMS. All of the games are on Fox, so you do not need cable for viewing. It starts Wednesday night. The schedule for the next week is, as follows: Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. All three weeknight games are at 5:30pm Mountain time. Saturday is a 4:30pm Mountain start. Sunday is at 6pm. Game One: Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum. Money matchup! I encourage all sports fans, even the casual sports fan, to watch! You will not regret it.
Crossing the 50
BYU had 7 possessions on the right side the 50 and ended up with 25 points. This ratio is improving, but against a defense as bad as Wyoming's, I would have thought 35 points was more feasible for 7 trips into Wyoming territory.
Strength of Schedule
BYU's strength of schedule, according to Jeff Sagarin, is now number 11. My very educated guess is that BYU's stay in the top 10 is now finished. It was a bumpy ride through a tough schedule in a rebuilding year, but the end is finally near. The easy games have finally arrived. The "building" part can finally begin. They will need to get working on that building quickly, the first three games next season are daunting: at Oregon State, at Texas, and Utah at home.
18 Attempts, 81 yards
The BYU offense hits a new low. Jake Heaps' 18 attempts and 81 yards are both lows in the Bronco Mendenhall era. In fact, they are both 30-year lows. The last time BYU hit either of those two numbers was in the 1970's, before my older sister who now has 5 kids was born! I would like to see more passing in the middle of the field, maybe some slants from interior receivers about 8-10 yards down the field. Heaps can throw that ball and the WRs/TEs might even be able to do something after the catch, if they don't drop it.
BCS Update
Well, we now have the 2nd week of the BCS standings. We have realistically cut the list of National Championship contenders down to 10 teams. Auburn, Oregon, Boise State, TCU, Michigan State, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin. LSU has a very outside chance and Utah has one even further on the outside beyond that. Ohio State and Nebraska are out at this point.
I do not buy into the fact that TCU will pass Boise State in the BCS standings at the end of the season if both teams win out. TCU has four games left: UNLV (1-6), Utah (7-0), SDSU (5-2), and New Mexico (0-7). Boise State has six games left: Louisiana Tech (3-4), Hawaii (6-2), Idaho (4-3), Fresno State (5-2), Nevada (6-1), and Utah State (2-5). Boise State's final stretch is actually stronger than TCU's. Boise State's average opponent is rated 64, by Jeff Sagarin. TCU's is 99. Different computers will have slightly different ratings, but either way, TCU plays two of the worst teams in the FBS, while playing only one top 10 team. Boise State may not play a top 10 team, but it also isn't playing any bottom 10 teams, where TCU plays two such teams. Plus Boise State will play one game after TCU is done, which is always a good thing, no matter how bad the opponent.
Utah's strength of schedule probably won't be better than Boise State's by the end of the season, plus they have the additional problem of starting so low in the preseason rankings. If the Utes win out, they need everyone ahead of them to lose, plus the 3 teams behind them to lose in order to get into the top 2. 12-0, with a preseason ranking in the 20's and one win against an opponent that will show up in the final BCS standings (at home, at that), isn't going to sneak its way into the top 2. Certainly it won't put them ahead of Boise State.
LSU is in the same boat: they could go on to beat Alabama and win at Arkansas, plus beat South Carolina in the SEC Title game (assuming Auburn loses TWO conference games between now and then) and not even crack the top 5.
I am pumped for this World Series matchup. Giants and Rangers: two underdogs, two longshots, two great TEAMS. All of the games are on Fox, so you do not need cable for viewing. It starts Wednesday night. The schedule for the next week is, as follows: Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. All three weeknight games are at 5:30pm Mountain time. Saturday is a 4:30pm Mountain start. Sunday is at 6pm. Game One: Cliff Lee vs. Tim Lincecum. Money matchup! I encourage all sports fans, even the casual sports fan, to watch! You will not regret it.
Crossing the 50
BYU had 7 possessions on the right side the 50 and ended up with 25 points. This ratio is improving, but against a defense as bad as Wyoming's, I would have thought 35 points was more feasible for 7 trips into Wyoming territory.
Strength of Schedule
BYU's strength of schedule, according to Jeff Sagarin, is now number 11. My very educated guess is that BYU's stay in the top 10 is now finished. It was a bumpy ride through a tough schedule in a rebuilding year, but the end is finally near. The easy games have finally arrived. The "building" part can finally begin. They will need to get working on that building quickly, the first three games next season are daunting: at Oregon State, at Texas, and Utah at home.
18 Attempts, 81 yards
The BYU offense hits a new low. Jake Heaps' 18 attempts and 81 yards are both lows in the Bronco Mendenhall era. In fact, they are both 30-year lows. The last time BYU hit either of those two numbers was in the 1970's, before my older sister who now has 5 kids was born! I would like to see more passing in the middle of the field, maybe some slants from interior receivers about 8-10 yards down the field. Heaps can throw that ball and the WRs/TEs might even be able to do something after the catch, if they don't drop it.
BCS Update
Well, we now have the 2nd week of the BCS standings. We have realistically cut the list of National Championship contenders down to 10 teams. Auburn, Oregon, Boise State, TCU, Michigan State, Missouri, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin. LSU has a very outside chance and Utah has one even further on the outside beyond that. Ohio State and Nebraska are out at this point.
I do not buy into the fact that TCU will pass Boise State in the BCS standings at the end of the season if both teams win out. TCU has four games left: UNLV (1-6), Utah (7-0), SDSU (5-2), and New Mexico (0-7). Boise State has six games left: Louisiana Tech (3-4), Hawaii (6-2), Idaho (4-3), Fresno State (5-2), Nevada (6-1), and Utah State (2-5). Boise State's final stretch is actually stronger than TCU's. Boise State's average opponent is rated 64, by Jeff Sagarin. TCU's is 99. Different computers will have slightly different ratings, but either way, TCU plays two of the worst teams in the FBS, while playing only one top 10 team. Boise State may not play a top 10 team, but it also isn't playing any bottom 10 teams, where TCU plays two such teams. Plus Boise State will play one game after TCU is done, which is always a good thing, no matter how bad the opponent.
Utah's strength of schedule probably won't be better than Boise State's by the end of the season, plus they have the additional problem of starting so low in the preseason rankings. If the Utes win out, they need everyone ahead of them to lose, plus the 3 teams behind them to lose in order to get into the top 2. 12-0, with a preseason ranking in the 20's and one win against an opponent that will show up in the final BCS standings (at home, at that), isn't going to sneak its way into the top 2. Certainly it won't put them ahead of Boise State.
LSU is in the same boat: they could go on to beat Alabama and win at Arkansas, plus beat South Carolina in the SEC Title game (assuming Auburn loses TWO conference games between now and then) and not even crack the top 5.
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010, Week Eight
I said: Utah 34, CSU 13
Actual: Utah 59, CSU 6
Note: CSU is having another one of those years. They stink. Again. Utah's offense is good. Their defense may or may not be good: still unknown. I believe all judgements about Utah must wait until TCU, and their entire season will be judged on that game since they will not have played anybody else all season. The Iowa State game looked a lot better this weekend as the Cyclones were busy beating Texas at Texas...
I said: TCU 34, Air Force 13
Actual: TCU 38, Air Force 7
Note: Air Force struggled running the football without Tew. They were going to struggle anyway, but without him their offense completely sputtered. They will need to figure out how to get creative on offense quickly with Utah coming to Colorado Springs this weekend. In the offseason, I predicted Air Force to win that game and finish second in the MWC. Even if they manage to win this game, they won't finish 2nd thanks to their loss at SDSU. TCU continues to dominate.
I said: SDSU 38, New Mexico 13
Actual: SDSU 30, New Mexico 20
Note: SDSU remains alive in the MWC race, but they haven't played Utah or TCU yet. New Mexico is eliminated from bowl eligibility in the 7th game of the season for the 2nd consecutive season. That is just bad. They were competitive with Rocky Long: why are they not even competitive with Mike Locksley?
Actual: Utah 59, CSU 6
Note: CSU is having another one of those years. They stink. Again. Utah's offense is good. Their defense may or may not be good: still unknown. I believe all judgements about Utah must wait until TCU, and their entire season will be judged on that game since they will not have played anybody else all season. The Iowa State game looked a lot better this weekend as the Cyclones were busy beating Texas at Texas...
I said: TCU 34, Air Force 13
Actual: TCU 38, Air Force 7
Note: Air Force struggled running the football without Tew. They were going to struggle anyway, but without him their offense completely sputtered. They will need to figure out how to get creative on offense quickly with Utah coming to Colorado Springs this weekend. In the offseason, I predicted Air Force to win that game and finish second in the MWC. Even if they manage to win this game, they won't finish 2nd thanks to their loss at SDSU. TCU continues to dominate.
I said: SDSU 38, New Mexico 13
Actual: SDSU 30, New Mexico 20
Note: SDSU remains alive in the MWC race, but they haven't played Utah or TCU yet. New Mexico is eliminated from bowl eligibility in the 7th game of the season for the 2nd consecutive season. That is just bad. They were competitive with Rocky Long: why are they not even competitive with Mike Locksley?
Wyoming-BYU 2010 Recap
Well, BYU won. It sure hasn't felt like it, even when they have pulled them out this season. Here is a position-by-position recap.
Quarterbacks
Jake Heaps had a great drive in the fourth quarter, capped by a 12-yard TD pass to Luke Ashworth, the second of Heaps' career. He also had the worst throw I have seen in my life (and I've played a lot of backyard football) on a third and short with a wide open receiver which resulted in a touchdown for Wyoming. All in all, he finished 10-18 for 81 yards. On that great drive he was 3-3 for 40 yards. That means the other 10 drives he was 7 for 15 for 41 yards. Until we see more good drives each game, BYU will struggle. Some improved playcalling couldn't hurt either. Quarterbacks: C
Running Backs
3 different backs averaged over 4 yards/carry, in a game where the opponent knew BYU was going to run the football. Two backs had over 80 yards (Kariya and DiLuigi), a third had 59 yards (Quezada). However, there was a huge fumble near the end of the first half. There were also a few third and shorts that they did not convert on (partially thanks to bad play-calling...). They were not involved in the passing game, but that is not necessarily their fault. The RBs had 49 carries for 229 yards and 2 TDs. That is fantastic. Running Backs: B+
Wide Receivers
Considering what was on the roster for this game, they played well. With Chambers suspended and Jacobson hurt, it was up to Ashworth and true freshman Cody Hoffman. 7 catches for 64 yards and a TD for that group isn't bad. However, it is bad for a WR group, especially one that was supposed to be a strong suit coming into the season. No fumbles and only 1 or 2 drops is improvement, but there is still no separation from the coverage. Plus, improvement from horrible is merely less horrible. Wide Receivers: C+
Tight Ends
In the aggregate, they did very well blocking in the run game, with Mahina leading the way there. They only had one drop in the passing game, and ended with two catches for 21 yards. If this were a Big Ten offense, they probably get an A. But since this is merely BYU's best attempt at Big Ten football, Tight Ends: B+
Offensive Line
The running game was excellent. The O-Line only gave up 1 sack in 19 attempted pass plays, and it was not necessarily their fault either. But it was a costly sack, either way. They also had way too many penalties in crucial situations. Jason Speredon alone had 3 penalties, and he had a fourth which was retracted. The group needs more consistency, but, all in all, it was a great game upfront. Offensive Line: A-
Defensive Line
They did a phenomenal job eating up blockers AND making plays. They completely shut down the running game, with the one (albeit huge 47-yard leading to a TD) exception. They contained the mobile QB until the final two possessions. They really were the dominant force behind the BYU defense's dominant performance. It was not just one guy. So'oto, Richardson, Manumaleuna, and Putnam all got in on the act. Defensive line: A
Linebackers
The backers were making the plays behind the DL, just as scripted: DL eat up blockers, LBs make plays. Hunter, Ogletree, Jorgensen, and Wagner all got in on the act. Van Noy had a beastly game, though it didn't necessarily show on the stat sheet. He had the big pass break-up that sealed the game, plus he spent a lot of time in the backfield either making plays or turning guys back inside for others to make plays. If he can improve in pass coverage, the guy is going to be an amazing all-around talent at OLB for BYU for years to come. Linebackers: A
Secondary
The secondary didn't really make any big plays throughout the game, partially due to a dominant front 7, partially due to just not making big plays. They didn't make any plays when plays needed to be made. They gave up the late TD. They took bad angles and allowed Wyoming extra yards in the few cases when the front 7 let them get by. They got away with one or two pass interference calls. Uale made a TD-saving hustle play (of course, Wyoming scored two plays later), and the other 3 breakup several passes. Logan dropped an easy pick and blew the coverage that led to the final Wyoming TD. They weren't poor, but nobody is on a game when a defense gives up less than 200 yards. They must play better. Secondary: B-
Special Teams
There were no horrific punts. There was a blocked field goal. There was a holding penalty that negated a big return. Overall though, they did a solid job winning the field position battle for BYU. The kickoff coverage and the blocked field goal were the two negatives that stand out. Special Teams: B+
Coaching
Offense was not as poorly called as some previous games, but there is still room for improvement and variety. The ultra-conservative style is not very BYU-fan friendly. I believe it also inhibits the growth possibilities for Heaps. Bronco did a good job calling the defense, until he went ultra-conservative in the fourth quarter, rushing mostly 3, with an occasional 4th rusher (the 4th rusher is what won the game on the final play!). Bronco and Anae, respectively: A- and C-
Quarterbacks
Jake Heaps had a great drive in the fourth quarter, capped by a 12-yard TD pass to Luke Ashworth, the second of Heaps' career. He also had the worst throw I have seen in my life (and I've played a lot of backyard football) on a third and short with a wide open receiver which resulted in a touchdown for Wyoming. All in all, he finished 10-18 for 81 yards. On that great drive he was 3-3 for 40 yards. That means the other 10 drives he was 7 for 15 for 41 yards. Until we see more good drives each game, BYU will struggle. Some improved playcalling couldn't hurt either. Quarterbacks: C
Running Backs
3 different backs averaged over 4 yards/carry, in a game where the opponent knew BYU was going to run the football. Two backs had over 80 yards (Kariya and DiLuigi), a third had 59 yards (Quezada). However, there was a huge fumble near the end of the first half. There were also a few third and shorts that they did not convert on (partially thanks to bad play-calling...). They were not involved in the passing game, but that is not necessarily their fault. The RBs had 49 carries for 229 yards and 2 TDs. That is fantastic. Running Backs: B+
Wide Receivers
Considering what was on the roster for this game, they played well. With Chambers suspended and Jacobson hurt, it was up to Ashworth and true freshman Cody Hoffman. 7 catches for 64 yards and a TD for that group isn't bad. However, it is bad for a WR group, especially one that was supposed to be a strong suit coming into the season. No fumbles and only 1 or 2 drops is improvement, but there is still no separation from the coverage. Plus, improvement from horrible is merely less horrible. Wide Receivers: C+
Tight Ends
In the aggregate, they did very well blocking in the run game, with Mahina leading the way there. They only had one drop in the passing game, and ended with two catches for 21 yards. If this were a Big Ten offense, they probably get an A. But since this is merely BYU's best attempt at Big Ten football, Tight Ends: B+
Offensive Line
The running game was excellent. The O-Line only gave up 1 sack in 19 attempted pass plays, and it was not necessarily their fault either. But it was a costly sack, either way. They also had way too many penalties in crucial situations. Jason Speredon alone had 3 penalties, and he had a fourth which was retracted. The group needs more consistency, but, all in all, it was a great game upfront. Offensive Line: A-
Defensive Line
They did a phenomenal job eating up blockers AND making plays. They completely shut down the running game, with the one (albeit huge 47-yard leading to a TD) exception. They contained the mobile QB until the final two possessions. They really were the dominant force behind the BYU defense's dominant performance. It was not just one guy. So'oto, Richardson, Manumaleuna, and Putnam all got in on the act. Defensive line: A
Linebackers
The backers were making the plays behind the DL, just as scripted: DL eat up blockers, LBs make plays. Hunter, Ogletree, Jorgensen, and Wagner all got in on the act. Van Noy had a beastly game, though it didn't necessarily show on the stat sheet. He had the big pass break-up that sealed the game, plus he spent a lot of time in the backfield either making plays or turning guys back inside for others to make plays. If he can improve in pass coverage, the guy is going to be an amazing all-around talent at OLB for BYU for years to come. Linebackers: A
Secondary
The secondary didn't really make any big plays throughout the game, partially due to a dominant front 7, partially due to just not making big plays. They didn't make any plays when plays needed to be made. They gave up the late TD. They took bad angles and allowed Wyoming extra yards in the few cases when the front 7 let them get by. They got away with one or two pass interference calls. Uale made a TD-saving hustle play (of course, Wyoming scored two plays later), and the other 3 breakup several passes. Logan dropped an easy pick and blew the coverage that led to the final Wyoming TD. They weren't poor, but nobody is on a game when a defense gives up less than 200 yards. They must play better. Secondary: B-
Special Teams
There were no horrific punts. There was a blocked field goal. There was a holding penalty that negated a big return. Overall though, they did a solid job winning the field position battle for BYU. The kickoff coverage and the blocked field goal were the two negatives that stand out. Special Teams: B+
Coaching
Offense was not as poorly called as some previous games, but there is still room for improvement and variety. The ultra-conservative style is not very BYU-fan friendly. I believe it also inhibits the growth possibilities for Heaps. Bronco did a good job calling the defense, until he went ultra-conservative in the fourth quarter, rushing mostly 3, with an occasional 4th rusher (the 4th rusher is what won the game on the final play!). Bronco and Anae, respectively: A- and C-
Friday, October 22, 2010
Wyoming-BYU Football Preview, 2010
Where The Two Teams Are
Two teams, both sitting at 2-5, both having played ridiculously difficult schedules, and both with chances at bowl games (thanks to easier schedules the rest of the way). Realistically, neither team has looked good, but a lot of that is that both teams have mostly just helped great teams pad their stats. One team will emerge victorious and with a chance at bowl eligibility. One will leave demoralized and be all but eliminated from bowl contention. Really, both teams have not had the success they wanted coming into the season. Whichever team is less deficient in more areas will win this game. BYU fans know this year what it's like to cheer for Wyoming most every year!
BYU O vs. Wyoming D
BYU has had some success running the ball. Wyoming is dead last in the country at run defense. BYU has not been able to get the passing game going much. Wyoming has actually not been pathetically bad at stopping the pass. BYU is scoring under 15 points per game. Wyoming is giving up nearly 31 points. Two under-performing (or performing at their potential and just very, very bad) units face off. Typically in a bad offense vs. bad defense matchup, I would take bad defense. But being 120th in the country in rushing defense against one of the biggest offensive lines is the country is not promising. If BYU cannot score 20 points at home against this team, write the rest of the season off. I believe they will, however.
BYU D vs. Wyoming O
Wyoming has made no strides on offense, even in their easier games against FCS Southern Utah or Toledo. BYU is improving on defense since Jaime Hill's firing. Wyoming ranks in the 100's in Rushing, Passing, Total, and Scoring Offense. They are 120th in total offense and 119th in both rushing and scoring. BYU's defense, after spending much of the year at the bottom in those categories, has improved. They are now 107th in rushing, 41st in passing, 91st in total, and 78th in scoring defense. Their pass defense is getting worse, but the rest are getting better (part of that is Bronco's more aggressive playcalling and risk-taking with the defense). If they can keep Wyoming under 300 passing yards, there should not be much problem containing this offense. 3rd down conversions will be crucial: Wyoming's offense (116th) is as bad as BYU's defense (104th) in 3rd down situations. Red zone scoring is a similar story: BYU's D is 110th, Wyoming's O is 119th. There is a lot of weakness on weakness here. The storyline here is easy: stop big plays in the passing game, stop Wyoming.
Prediction
I have continuously overestimated BYU's offense this season. It just is not very good. Part of it is personnel, though I think, and have stated for a few weeks now, that most of it is coaching. However, I think they should be able to dominate this game at home. They should be able to move the chains. They should be able to control the clock. They should be able to run the ball. They should be able to punch the ball into the end zone. The improving defense should be able to contain Wyoming's offense for the most part. I would expect one or two big plays, but, by and large, the Cowboys should not be able to drive the ball down the field consistently. Realistically, I believe this game goes one of two ways: BYU plays well and wins handily or else BYU plays as they have been playing and lose by 4-10 points. I will go with the home crowd, right before a bye, getting ready for a late-season run. BYU wins, 24-10. I believe that BYU should score more than 24, but I've been giving them too much credit all season, so we'll stick with the mid-20's, even against this abysmal Wyoming defense.
Two teams, both sitting at 2-5, both having played ridiculously difficult schedules, and both with chances at bowl games (thanks to easier schedules the rest of the way). Realistically, neither team has looked good, but a lot of that is that both teams have mostly just helped great teams pad their stats. One team will emerge victorious and with a chance at bowl eligibility. One will leave demoralized and be all but eliminated from bowl contention. Really, both teams have not had the success they wanted coming into the season. Whichever team is less deficient in more areas will win this game. BYU fans know this year what it's like to cheer for Wyoming most every year!
BYU O vs. Wyoming D
BYU has had some success running the ball. Wyoming is dead last in the country at run defense. BYU has not been able to get the passing game going much. Wyoming has actually not been pathetically bad at stopping the pass. BYU is scoring under 15 points per game. Wyoming is giving up nearly 31 points. Two under-performing (or performing at their potential and just very, very bad) units face off. Typically in a bad offense vs. bad defense matchup, I would take bad defense. But being 120th in the country in rushing defense against one of the biggest offensive lines is the country is not promising. If BYU cannot score 20 points at home against this team, write the rest of the season off. I believe they will, however.
BYU D vs. Wyoming O
Wyoming has made no strides on offense, even in their easier games against FCS Southern Utah or Toledo. BYU is improving on defense since Jaime Hill's firing. Wyoming ranks in the 100's in Rushing, Passing, Total, and Scoring Offense. They are 120th in total offense and 119th in both rushing and scoring. BYU's defense, after spending much of the year at the bottom in those categories, has improved. They are now 107th in rushing, 41st in passing, 91st in total, and 78th in scoring defense. Their pass defense is getting worse, but the rest are getting better (part of that is Bronco's more aggressive playcalling and risk-taking with the defense). If they can keep Wyoming under 300 passing yards, there should not be much problem containing this offense. 3rd down conversions will be crucial: Wyoming's offense (116th) is as bad as BYU's defense (104th) in 3rd down situations. Red zone scoring is a similar story: BYU's D is 110th, Wyoming's O is 119th. There is a lot of weakness on weakness here. The storyline here is easy: stop big plays in the passing game, stop Wyoming.
Prediction
I have continuously overestimated BYU's offense this season. It just is not very good. Part of it is personnel, though I think, and have stated for a few weeks now, that most of it is coaching. However, I think they should be able to dominate this game at home. They should be able to move the chains. They should be able to control the clock. They should be able to run the ball. They should be able to punch the ball into the end zone. The improving defense should be able to contain Wyoming's offense for the most part. I would expect one or two big plays, but, by and large, the Cowboys should not be able to drive the ball down the field consistently. Realistically, I believe this game goes one of two ways: BYU plays well and wins handily or else BYU plays as they have been playing and lose by 4-10 points. I will go with the home crowd, right before a bye, getting ready for a late-season run. BYU wins, 24-10. I believe that BYU should score more than 24, but I've been giving them too much credit all season, so we'll stick with the mid-20's, even against this abysmal Wyoming defense.
MWC Predictions, 2010, Week Eight
CSU at Utah
After a really rough start to the year, CSU is playing much better these days. They are scoring points. Their D held TCU to 27 points (6 at halftime). Utah has played very well, though they struggled last week at Wyoming on offense, giving the ball up 3 times and only scoring 30 points. Despite a 6-0 start, they are 108th in the country in turnover margin, tied with this week's opponent, Colorado State. For Colorado State to have any chance in this game, they'll need to win that battle, and do so handily. Utah will prove too much at home for CSU and comes away with a 34-13 win.
Air Force at TCU
The Falcons are 1-2 on the road. TCU is 6-0 in the state of Texas, 4-0 at home. Both teams will mostly run the ball, but I like TCU to do a better job for 4 quarters. Jared Tew was a great fullback for Air Force, and it will be tough to lose him right now, heading into big games against TCU and Utah. Air Force has not played at well at TCU since they joined the league, losing 44-10 in 2008 and 38-14 in 2006. While this year's Air Force team is better than the 2008 or 2006 versions, so is TCU's team. The Horned Frog defense has played well, and will continue to do so. Maybe next year, Falcons. Actually, probably for sure next year. TCU wins this one though, 34-13. The days of being ranked in the top 25 seem long ago...
San Diego State at New Mexico
The symbol of futility has been New Mexico the past two seasons. A win for SDSU all but assures them of a bowl berth this season. I do not see any reason they will not get one win closer to that possibility, playing this completely punchless New Mexico team: it's like BYU but without an offensive line down there. SDSU pulls this out on the road, 38-13. Unless Locksley is a good coach...
After a really rough start to the year, CSU is playing much better these days. They are scoring points. Their D held TCU to 27 points (6 at halftime). Utah has played very well, though they struggled last week at Wyoming on offense, giving the ball up 3 times and only scoring 30 points. Despite a 6-0 start, they are 108th in the country in turnover margin, tied with this week's opponent, Colorado State. For Colorado State to have any chance in this game, they'll need to win that battle, and do so handily. Utah will prove too much at home for CSU and comes away with a 34-13 win.
Air Force at TCU
The Falcons are 1-2 on the road. TCU is 6-0 in the state of Texas, 4-0 at home. Both teams will mostly run the ball, but I like TCU to do a better job for 4 quarters. Jared Tew was a great fullback for Air Force, and it will be tough to lose him right now, heading into big games against TCU and Utah. Air Force has not played at well at TCU since they joined the league, losing 44-10 in 2008 and 38-14 in 2006. While this year's Air Force team is better than the 2008 or 2006 versions, so is TCU's team. The Horned Frog defense has played well, and will continue to do so. Maybe next year, Falcons. Actually, probably for sure next year. TCU wins this one though, 34-13. The days of being ranked in the top 25 seem long ago...
San Diego State at New Mexico
The symbol of futility has been New Mexico the past two seasons. A win for SDSU all but assures them of a bowl berth this season. I do not see any reason they will not get one win closer to that possibility, playing this completely punchless New Mexico team: it's like BYU but without an offensive line down there. SDSU pulls this out on the road, 38-13. Unless Locksley is a good coach...
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, 2010 Week Eight
MLB Playoffs
Giants-Rangers, baby! Hopefully. It isn't the foregone conclusion everyone is saying it is: Cliff Lee could lose. The Giants still have to face three really good pitchers in games 5, 6, and 7. But that is a World Series I would watch and be excited about. Everyone says it will be bad for ratings, so I say to everybody reading this: watch it! You will not regret it. It will remind you of the elegant simplicity of the game that we all grew up loving and playing. Pitching. Defense. No steroids. Guts. Gambles. Hustle. No $100 Million contracts. Determination. Fight. Heart. Love of the game. The beauty of the sport, revealed to us again. Just like the first time you saw Field of Dreams. That is what a San Francisco Giants/Texas Rangers World Series will do for us.
Good Football Weekend Ahead
OU at Mizzou, LSU at Auburn, Air Force at TCU, Michigan State at Northwestern, Alabama at Tennessee, Wisconsin at Iowa, Nebraska at Oklahoma State, Washington at Arizona, Kansas State at Baylor, Ole Miss at Arkansas, Notre Dame vs. Navy, Georgia Tech at Clemson, Houston at SMU, North Carolina at Miami. A lot of good matchups. A lot of potential upsets. I expect a lot of fun football this weekend. It's a good weekend to be a college football fan!
Chambers Out (For Good)
I am sure BYU fans have heard by now, O'Neill Chambers has been suspended for the rest of the season and will transfer after the semester is over. I echo Bronco's sentiments: it's a shame the kid could not put it together on and off the field. He was a fun guy, and if I were ever interviewing, he would have been my go-to guy for brash, unapologetic quotes that were rarely, if ever, backed up on the field. I thought BYU could have utilized him better across the middle of the field, but alas, they tried to use him in a way that did not keep him, or Cougar Nation, satisfied.
On a WR note, Ross Apo has officially been ruled out for the season and will appeal for a medical redshirt.
Farewell Tour
I think it is safe to say, BYU's farewell tour through the MWC is not going as most fans would have wanted. The only other time Bronco Mendenhall started 1-2 in conference was his first year. I do believe that his two worst years at BYU will bracket his MWC career. I said it initially when I heard the independence news: next year BYU could have left the conference with a bang. This year was more of a thud. Bronco will finish with a 4-1 record against Air Force and San Diego State. He is 4-0 against BYU's next 4 opponents. He'll need to go 5-0 against all four of them to get that all-important bowl bid. Next year's BYU team would benefit greatly from a bowl game by this year's BYU team.
By my count, BYU has given at least 28 players on offense significant snaps. They will lose 4 players for sure: Luke Ashworth, O'Neill Chambers (transfer), Nick Alletto, and Jason Speredon. All of those four are contributors, but not huge keys in this offense (are there any?). They may lose 1-3 more for missions. Matt Reynolds could leave early for the NFL, but I doubt he will, given the team's sluggish offensive performance, and the impact that has on his draft stock. At the least, barring injuries, BYU will return 20 offensive players who made contributions to this team.
Kicker Mitch Payne graduates. Big-legged kicker Justin Sorensen returns from his mission. Riley Stephenson will be a junior next year, which might explain some of his inconsistencies to this point at P: he is only a sophomore.
By my count, 26 defensive players have played significant snaps to this point in the season as well. Of those 26, they will lose 6 to graduation (5 starters). I think there are only 2 that feasibly could serve missions. Nobody is leaving early for the NFL (did anybody else laugh a little as they read that?). Of the 5 starters that are graduating, 3 are from the secondary, all of which have missed time this season due to injuries, giving their replacements experience. Shane Hunter and Vic So'oto are the other two. So'oto will be sorely missed at the DE spot. The defense has played 5 guys at the 2 MLB spots, so losing one, Hunter, will not kill them. Defensively, BYU will return about 20 contributors from this year's team as well.
Next year's team will be better. They will still have depth. They could use an extra month of practice and an extra game. The year after that (2012) might be Bronco's best yet. Not to belittle the greatness of the 2006 team, probably one of BYU's best 4 teams ever, but I believe the 2012 Cougars have the potential to be that good. They already have 10 games scheduled for that season: Oregon State, Hawaii, at Utah, at Boise State, at Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame, Louisiana Tech, Utah State, at New Mexico State, and at San Jose State. There are some tough games in there, but some easy ones too.
Hoops Look-Ahead
BYU looks to have a pretty good basketball team this season. They have an experienced backcourt, a lot of bodies in the frontcourt, and a lot of promising newcomers. Most publications rate them as a top 30 team with good prospects for a run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. They have a preseason All-American in Jimmer Fredette. They have 5 significant players back from last year's team and 3 other reserves that played in at least 20 games last season. They have two guys back from missions that played before their missions. They have one of the top incoming freshmen in the country. They have one of the top JC players in the country joining their ranks.
If I had to put my money on a starting five, I'd go: Hartsock at 5, Collinsworth at 4, Abouo at 3, and Emery and Fredette 1/2. That leaves some very capable backups to come in: Davies, Rogers, younger Collinsworth, Magnusson, and perhaps Martineau.
If James Anderson improved as much between 2009 and 2010 as he did from 2008 to 2009, he might be a serviceable backup big man in the MWC.
The biggest worry I see is Jimmer's backup: Martineau is just off a mission and Collinsworth is a true freshman. He cannot log 38 minutes a game if BYU wants to make a push late in the season. One of those two will have to step up and show they can play point guard.
Davies is a good player and backup center, but I don't see him as a starting big man at this point. He had a lot of things to improve on from last season, including his size, his durability, and his defense. His free throw shooting needed work too...
The key stretch is Thanksgiving to New Year's. They play from Southern California to upstate New York, with a stint in Texas in between. They play 10 games in 5 weeks: 1 home game, 6 neutral sites, 3 true road games, 5 different states, 9 different venues. There is only one complete rummy in there AT Buffalo (in December of all things), two if you include Hawaii. There are 3 or 4 BCS conference teams in there (depending on their Thanksgiving tournament, where they either get St. Mary's or Texas Tech in their final game). There could be as many as 5 NCAA Tournament teams in there (probably more likely to be 3 though). If they can survive that stretch with an 8-2 record, or better, they would be in great shape heading into conference play.
The conference schedule sets up pretty nicely. They play road games at UNLV and New Mexico in January. They only have one challenging road game in February/March: at SDSU on February 26th on CBS. Like regular CBS. If they hold serve at home, they would likely head into the MWC Tournament having won at least 8 of their last 9, with, likely at worst, a 13-3 conference record, and a 26-5 overall record.
Ultimately, I think to advance to the second weekend, they need at least a 6-seed, which I believe will take at least 28 wins by the end of the MWC Tournament. 26-27 wins lands them in the 7-10 seed range, where they will be playing a top 10 team in game two, and won't survive the first weekend. Again. I'm looking at 28 wins and either a conference title or a conference tournament championship for BYU to realistically push through to Danny Ainge territory.
Giants-Rangers, baby! Hopefully. It isn't the foregone conclusion everyone is saying it is: Cliff Lee could lose. The Giants still have to face three really good pitchers in games 5, 6, and 7. But that is a World Series I would watch and be excited about. Everyone says it will be bad for ratings, so I say to everybody reading this: watch it! You will not regret it. It will remind you of the elegant simplicity of the game that we all grew up loving and playing. Pitching. Defense. No steroids. Guts. Gambles. Hustle. No $100 Million contracts. Determination. Fight. Heart. Love of the game. The beauty of the sport, revealed to us again. Just like the first time you saw Field of Dreams. That is what a San Francisco Giants/Texas Rangers World Series will do for us.
Good Football Weekend Ahead
OU at Mizzou, LSU at Auburn, Air Force at TCU, Michigan State at Northwestern, Alabama at Tennessee, Wisconsin at Iowa, Nebraska at Oklahoma State, Washington at Arizona, Kansas State at Baylor, Ole Miss at Arkansas, Notre Dame vs. Navy, Georgia Tech at Clemson, Houston at SMU, North Carolina at Miami. A lot of good matchups. A lot of potential upsets. I expect a lot of fun football this weekend. It's a good weekend to be a college football fan!
Chambers Out (For Good)
I am sure BYU fans have heard by now, O'Neill Chambers has been suspended for the rest of the season and will transfer after the semester is over. I echo Bronco's sentiments: it's a shame the kid could not put it together on and off the field. He was a fun guy, and if I were ever interviewing, he would have been my go-to guy for brash, unapologetic quotes that were rarely, if ever, backed up on the field. I thought BYU could have utilized him better across the middle of the field, but alas, they tried to use him in a way that did not keep him, or Cougar Nation, satisfied.
On a WR note, Ross Apo has officially been ruled out for the season and will appeal for a medical redshirt.
Farewell Tour
I think it is safe to say, BYU's farewell tour through the MWC is not going as most fans would have wanted. The only other time Bronco Mendenhall started 1-2 in conference was his first year. I do believe that his two worst years at BYU will bracket his MWC career. I said it initially when I heard the independence news: next year BYU could have left the conference with a bang. This year was more of a thud. Bronco will finish with a 4-1 record against Air Force and San Diego State. He is 4-0 against BYU's next 4 opponents. He'll need to go 5-0 against all four of them to get that all-important bowl bid. Next year's BYU team would benefit greatly from a bowl game by this year's BYU team.
By my count, BYU has given at least 28 players on offense significant snaps. They will lose 4 players for sure: Luke Ashworth, O'Neill Chambers (transfer), Nick Alletto, and Jason Speredon. All of those four are contributors, but not huge keys in this offense (are there any?). They may lose 1-3 more for missions. Matt Reynolds could leave early for the NFL, but I doubt he will, given the team's sluggish offensive performance, and the impact that has on his draft stock. At the least, barring injuries, BYU will return 20 offensive players who made contributions to this team.
Kicker Mitch Payne graduates. Big-legged kicker Justin Sorensen returns from his mission. Riley Stephenson will be a junior next year, which might explain some of his inconsistencies to this point at P: he is only a sophomore.
By my count, 26 defensive players have played significant snaps to this point in the season as well. Of those 26, they will lose 6 to graduation (5 starters). I think there are only 2 that feasibly could serve missions. Nobody is leaving early for the NFL (did anybody else laugh a little as they read that?). Of the 5 starters that are graduating, 3 are from the secondary, all of which have missed time this season due to injuries, giving their replacements experience. Shane Hunter and Vic So'oto are the other two. So'oto will be sorely missed at the DE spot. The defense has played 5 guys at the 2 MLB spots, so losing one, Hunter, will not kill them. Defensively, BYU will return about 20 contributors from this year's team as well.
Next year's team will be better. They will still have depth. They could use an extra month of practice and an extra game. The year after that (2012) might be Bronco's best yet. Not to belittle the greatness of the 2006 team, probably one of BYU's best 4 teams ever, but I believe the 2012 Cougars have the potential to be that good. They already have 10 games scheduled for that season: Oregon State, Hawaii, at Utah, at Boise State, at Georgia Tech, at Notre Dame, Louisiana Tech, Utah State, at New Mexico State, and at San Jose State. There are some tough games in there, but some easy ones too.
Hoops Look-Ahead
BYU looks to have a pretty good basketball team this season. They have an experienced backcourt, a lot of bodies in the frontcourt, and a lot of promising newcomers. Most publications rate them as a top 30 team with good prospects for a run into the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. They have a preseason All-American in Jimmer Fredette. They have 5 significant players back from last year's team and 3 other reserves that played in at least 20 games last season. They have two guys back from missions that played before their missions. They have one of the top incoming freshmen in the country. They have one of the top JC players in the country joining their ranks.
If I had to put my money on a starting five, I'd go: Hartsock at 5, Collinsworth at 4, Abouo at 3, and Emery and Fredette 1/2. That leaves some very capable backups to come in: Davies, Rogers, younger Collinsworth, Magnusson, and perhaps Martineau.
If James Anderson improved as much between 2009 and 2010 as he did from 2008 to 2009, he might be a serviceable backup big man in the MWC.
The biggest worry I see is Jimmer's backup: Martineau is just off a mission and Collinsworth is a true freshman. He cannot log 38 minutes a game if BYU wants to make a push late in the season. One of those two will have to step up and show they can play point guard.
Davies is a good player and backup center, but I don't see him as a starting big man at this point. He had a lot of things to improve on from last season, including his size, his durability, and his defense. His free throw shooting needed work too...
The key stretch is Thanksgiving to New Year's. They play from Southern California to upstate New York, with a stint in Texas in between. They play 10 games in 5 weeks: 1 home game, 6 neutral sites, 3 true road games, 5 different states, 9 different venues. There is only one complete rummy in there AT Buffalo (in December of all things), two if you include Hawaii. There are 3 or 4 BCS conference teams in there (depending on their Thanksgiving tournament, where they either get St. Mary's or Texas Tech in their final game). There could be as many as 5 NCAA Tournament teams in there (probably more likely to be 3 though). If they can survive that stretch with an 8-2 record, or better, they would be in great shape heading into conference play.
The conference schedule sets up pretty nicely. They play road games at UNLV and New Mexico in January. They only have one challenging road game in February/March: at SDSU on February 26th on CBS. Like regular CBS. If they hold serve at home, they would likely head into the MWC Tournament having won at least 8 of their last 9, with, likely at worst, a 13-3 conference record, and a 26-5 overall record.
Ultimately, I think to advance to the second weekend, they need at least a 6-seed, which I believe will take at least 28 wins by the end of the MWC Tournament. 26-27 wins lands them in the 7-10 seed range, where they will be playing a top 10 team in game two, and won't survive the first weekend. Again. I'm looking at 28 wins and either a conference title or a conference tournament championship for BYU to realistically push through to Danny Ainge territory.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, 2010 Week Eight
A few weeks in a row now, we have seen an unheralded backup making significant plays for BYU. Against Utah State, JD Falslev sparked hope for Cougar nation with his kickoff return. Against SDSU, it was Matt Marshall who ran a fake field goal and played in several wild Cougar formation plays (which he also did against TCU). Jordan Richardson has filled in really well at Nose Tackle for BYU the past two games. And, of course, I have long been a proponent of getting CB Corby Eason on the field, who got a huge hit and sack on Dalton in the TCU game. My question is: why are more players like Falslev, Marshall, Richardson, and Eason not getting a shot to play in the first place? Are there more potential players like them on the bench? BYU fans will recall Brandon Doman sitting on the bench as the 3rd/4th-string QB and was (thankfully) forced into action due to injury (not thankful for the injuries, but thankful for his opportunity). That guy was a gamer and was an NFL Draft pick, but there he sat, watching LaVell's last season go down in flames, from the sidelines because someone misjudged his ability to lead a football team. How many Doman's are on this BYU team? Utah fans will recall Alex Smith in a similar situation: he led them to a BCS win and was the #1 overall pick. Prior to that he was, according to Urban Meyer, third on the depth chart, but only because there were only 3 QBs on the roster, or else he would have been 4th...
I could easily sit and question why some of the guys that are on the field are still on the field (like Brandon Bradley who takes bad angles, does not tackle well, and does not cover well. What is it that he does that BYU wants from its DBs? Or why did it take a suspension to prevent O'Neill Chambers from kickoff return duties: I would want a shifty, quick, agile player who can make guys miss or break tackles when they don't miss. He is slow, with no agility, moves, or tackle-breaking ability. Plus, he will run 15 yards to go catch the ball right in front of the other return-man, and then only return the ball to the 20-yard line.), but let's focus on the positives of those on the bench instead.
At 2-5, with several blowout losses, a lot of the starters obviously have not been getting it done. There there are several big, speedy, and/or athletic guys as backups. They may be inexperienced, but when experience isn't getting the job done...you can see where I'm headed with that. So here's a list of the potential ballers that are sitting on the bench. Ask yourself: why are these guys not seeing the field, at all? I will not touch the backup QBs. Lark and Munns could both be great, but neither has the experience that Jake Heaps now has, even if they are just as good. On offense, I actually will not touch anybody, since they have played so many players already, except to mention there might be a few players (including some defensive players) who could come in and run a reverse, or as a blocking FB, or on some kind of trick play (like former QB Dallin Tollestrup).
CB Robbie Buckner
CB DeQuan Everett
DL Tayo Fabuluje
LB Austin Nielsen
P Brian Smith
CB (and former Canadian QB) Dallin Tollestrup
I am interested in your thoughts on these players, or if you have any personal knowledge of their abilities or accomplishments in high school/junior college, or if you want to tell me I'm wrong and these guys suck, big-time, and could not contribute, even to this 2-5 Cougar team.
I could easily sit and question why some of the guys that are on the field are still on the field (like Brandon Bradley who takes bad angles, does not tackle well, and does not cover well. What is it that he does that BYU wants from its DBs? Or why did it take a suspension to prevent O'Neill Chambers from kickoff return duties: I would want a shifty, quick, agile player who can make guys miss or break tackles when they don't miss. He is slow, with no agility, moves, or tackle-breaking ability. Plus, he will run 15 yards to go catch the ball right in front of the other return-man, and then only return the ball to the 20-yard line.), but let's focus on the positives of those on the bench instead.
At 2-5, with several blowout losses, a lot of the starters obviously have not been getting it done. There there are several big, speedy, and/or athletic guys as backups. They may be inexperienced, but when experience isn't getting the job done...you can see where I'm headed with that. So here's a list of the potential ballers that are sitting on the bench. Ask yourself: why are these guys not seeing the field, at all? I will not touch the backup QBs. Lark and Munns could both be great, but neither has the experience that Jake Heaps now has, even if they are just as good. On offense, I actually will not touch anybody, since they have played so many players already, except to mention there might be a few players (including some defensive players) who could come in and run a reverse, or as a blocking FB, or on some kind of trick play (like former QB Dallin Tollestrup).
CB Robbie Buckner
CB DeQuan Everett
DL Tayo Fabuluje
LB Austin Nielsen
P Brian Smith
CB (and former Canadian QB) Dallin Tollestrup
I am interested in your thoughts on these players, or if you have any personal knowledge of their abilities or accomplishments in high school/junior college, or if you want to tell me I'm wrong and these guys suck, big-time, and could not contribute, even to this 2-5 Cougar team.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Eight
The Curse of Number 1
Two weeks in a row, the number 1 team in the country has hit the road against quality opponents and lost by two TDs. First was Alabama at South Carolina. Next was Ohio State at Wisconsin. Depending on what you view as number 1, this week, BCS #1 Oklahoma heads to Missouri. AP, Coaches, and Harris Poll #1 Oregon plays at USC next weekend. Potential future #1 teams and their upcoming road games: Auburn only plays 4 road games on the year. So far they played two of them, with both results being 3-point wins. Bama still to come in their last regular season game in the Iron Bowl. TCU plays at Utah, on November 6th. Boise State plays at Nevada, on Friday, November 26th.
Driving the Ball Update
This has become a weekly feature to highlight BYU's success (or lack thereof) at finishing drives this season. BYU crossed the 50 twice against TCU, scoring only 3 points. The problem this week was not the inability to finish drives, but the inability to start drives. Wyoming crossed the 50 three times against TCU. CSU did it twice. And Tennessee Tech scored 7 points. It is not as hard as BYU (and Robert Anae) is making it look.
Strength of Schedule Update
BYU's schedule strength is back in the top 10 this week after playing TCU, according to Jeff Sagarin. They check in this week at #4. Utah and West Virginia are the only top 25 teams with a triple-digit strength of schedule. Utah will play 4 more teams this season better than any team left on the West Virginia schedule, so theirs will improve. West Virginia: not so much. They will not play a single team in the top 40 the rest of the season: they will only have played one team in the top 30 (LSU) by the time the season is over. And this is the likely Big (L)East champion...
We're Hurting Tew
Jared Tew was inserted into the Air Force offense late in the 2008 season. They are 13-5 when Jared Tew gets at least 10 carries. They are 1-4 when he doesn't. Without him, they have no chance to win the MWC. They lost the SDSU game without him, which would have played out differently if he did not get hurt. They would have lost to TCU with him anyway. They had a chance at home against Utah with him on the field. As it stands now, they will probably have to fight with SDSU and BYU for 3rd place. Yes, BYU has a legitimate chance for 3rd place still...they could easily finish 5-3 in conference. Air Force and SDSU haven't played TCU or Utah and each already has a loss.
The BCS Mess
As I was driving in to work today, it occurred to me how jacked up the BCS is. I mean, I have always known it was jacked up, but it really hit me today. As I was thinking about, and listening to, various NFL playoff scenarios, I thought: well, if two teams tie, there is a tiebreaker in place to determine which one makes the playoffs, and which one does not. In college football, there could very easily be only two undefeated teams and have neither team make the National Championship game. I would bet, if that were the case, one of them would make the NC game, but certainly not both. Even if Boise State and TCU are 1 and 2 in the polls (which is doubtful in and of itself), whoever is 3 or 4 in the polls will likely have better computer numbers than one or both of those teams. Boise State is currently ahead of 3 undefeated teams, but behind 6 of them. TCU is behind 4 undefeated teams, ahead of 5. No 1-loss teams are currently ahead of either in the BCS standings, computer rankings, or human polls.
Current one-loss teams that could pass TCU/Boise State if they go undefeated the rest of the way:
Stanford (computers: 15% behind Boise State, 17% behind TCU) still plays Washington State, at Washington, Arizona, at Arizona State, at California, and Oregon State. Would probably pass in computers, though probably not in polls.
Alabama (computers: 26% behind Boise State, 28% behind TCU) still plays at Tennessee, at LSU, Mississippi State, FCS team, and Auburn, plus an SEC championship game against what would probably be a top 25 team at the time (South Carolina or Florida). Would probably pass in computers and polls.
Florida State (computers: 31% behind Boise State, 33% behind TCU) still plays at NC State, North Carolina, Clemson, at Maryland, and Florida, plus an ACC championship game against Virginia Tech, Miami, or Georgia Tech, most likely. Too much ground to make up in the computers and polls with not enough high-quality opponents.
Ohio State (computers: 32% behind Boise State, 34% behind TCU) still plays Purdue, at Minnesota, Penn State, at Iowa, and Michigan. I do not believe this schedule has the gusto to pass either team in the polls or the computer rankings.
Arizona (computers: 34% behind Boise State, 36% behind TCU) still plays Washington, at UCLA, at Stanford, USC, at Oregon, and Arizona State. Would pass at least one of them in polls and computers, but, because it is that good of a schedule, they will not navigate it undefeated.
Wisconsin (computers: 35% behind Boise State, 37% behind TCU) still plays at Iowa, at Purdue, Indiana, at Michigan, and Northwestern. Same with Ohio State: the Big Ten is so bloated from their easy non-conference schedules that they needed an undefeated team to finish in the top 2.
Iowa (computers: 40% behind Boise State, 42% behind TCU) still plays Wisconsin, Michigan State, at Indiana, at Northwestern, Ohio State, and at Minnesota. The schedule could certainly help Iowa make a push past one team, but probably not both. A Big Ten championship game would help.
Nebraska's computer rankings are abysmal, and with no big games left on the schedule until the Big 12 Title game, they are out of the National Championship discussion. Texas, Kansas State, and Mississippi State (the next three in the computer rankings) do not even control their own destinies. They are out as well.
Of course, the other question is: would any of the current undefeated teams survive a loss and stay ahead of Boise State or TCU? Certainly, if any BCS conference team goes undefeated, they will be ahead of at least one of these two teams, if not both, in the polls, computers, BCS standings, etc. A 1-loss SEC team certainly will have more gusto in the computers, enough to withstand a spot or two in the human polls.
Two weeks in a row, the number 1 team in the country has hit the road against quality opponents and lost by two TDs. First was Alabama at South Carolina. Next was Ohio State at Wisconsin. Depending on what you view as number 1, this week, BCS #1 Oklahoma heads to Missouri. AP, Coaches, and Harris Poll #1 Oregon plays at USC next weekend. Potential future #1 teams and their upcoming road games: Auburn only plays 4 road games on the year. So far they played two of them, with both results being 3-point wins. Bama still to come in their last regular season game in the Iron Bowl. TCU plays at Utah, on November 6th. Boise State plays at Nevada, on Friday, November 26th.
Driving the Ball Update
This has become a weekly feature to highlight BYU's success (or lack thereof) at finishing drives this season. BYU crossed the 50 twice against TCU, scoring only 3 points. The problem this week was not the inability to finish drives, but the inability to start drives. Wyoming crossed the 50 three times against TCU. CSU did it twice. And Tennessee Tech scored 7 points. It is not as hard as BYU (and Robert Anae) is making it look.
Strength of Schedule Update
BYU's schedule strength is back in the top 10 this week after playing TCU, according to Jeff Sagarin. They check in this week at #4. Utah and West Virginia are the only top 25 teams with a triple-digit strength of schedule. Utah will play 4 more teams this season better than any team left on the West Virginia schedule, so theirs will improve. West Virginia: not so much. They will not play a single team in the top 40 the rest of the season: they will only have played one team in the top 30 (LSU) by the time the season is over. And this is the likely Big (L)East champion...
We're Hurting Tew
Jared Tew was inserted into the Air Force offense late in the 2008 season. They are 13-5 when Jared Tew gets at least 10 carries. They are 1-4 when he doesn't. Without him, they have no chance to win the MWC. They lost the SDSU game without him, which would have played out differently if he did not get hurt. They would have lost to TCU with him anyway. They had a chance at home against Utah with him on the field. As it stands now, they will probably have to fight with SDSU and BYU for 3rd place. Yes, BYU has a legitimate chance for 3rd place still...they could easily finish 5-3 in conference. Air Force and SDSU haven't played TCU or Utah and each already has a loss.
The BCS Mess
As I was driving in to work today, it occurred to me how jacked up the BCS is. I mean, I have always known it was jacked up, but it really hit me today. As I was thinking about, and listening to, various NFL playoff scenarios, I thought: well, if two teams tie, there is a tiebreaker in place to determine which one makes the playoffs, and which one does not. In college football, there could very easily be only two undefeated teams and have neither team make the National Championship game. I would bet, if that were the case, one of them would make the NC game, but certainly not both. Even if Boise State and TCU are 1 and 2 in the polls (which is doubtful in and of itself), whoever is 3 or 4 in the polls will likely have better computer numbers than one or both of those teams. Boise State is currently ahead of 3 undefeated teams, but behind 6 of them. TCU is behind 4 undefeated teams, ahead of 5. No 1-loss teams are currently ahead of either in the BCS standings, computer rankings, or human polls.
Current one-loss teams that could pass TCU/Boise State if they go undefeated the rest of the way:
Stanford (computers: 15% behind Boise State, 17% behind TCU) still plays Washington State, at Washington, Arizona, at Arizona State, at California, and Oregon State. Would probably pass in computers, though probably not in polls.
Alabama (computers: 26% behind Boise State, 28% behind TCU) still plays at Tennessee, at LSU, Mississippi State, FCS team, and Auburn, plus an SEC championship game against what would probably be a top 25 team at the time (South Carolina or Florida). Would probably pass in computers and polls.
Florida State (computers: 31% behind Boise State, 33% behind TCU) still plays at NC State, North Carolina, Clemson, at Maryland, and Florida, plus an ACC championship game against Virginia Tech, Miami, or Georgia Tech, most likely. Too much ground to make up in the computers and polls with not enough high-quality opponents.
Ohio State (computers: 32% behind Boise State, 34% behind TCU) still plays Purdue, at Minnesota, Penn State, at Iowa, and Michigan. I do not believe this schedule has the gusto to pass either team in the polls or the computer rankings.
Arizona (computers: 34% behind Boise State, 36% behind TCU) still plays Washington, at UCLA, at Stanford, USC, at Oregon, and Arizona State. Would pass at least one of them in polls and computers, but, because it is that good of a schedule, they will not navigate it undefeated.
Wisconsin (computers: 35% behind Boise State, 37% behind TCU) still plays at Iowa, at Purdue, Indiana, at Michigan, and Northwestern. Same with Ohio State: the Big Ten is so bloated from their easy non-conference schedules that they needed an undefeated team to finish in the top 2.
Iowa (computers: 40% behind Boise State, 42% behind TCU) still plays Wisconsin, Michigan State, at Indiana, at Northwestern, Ohio State, and at Minnesota. The schedule could certainly help Iowa make a push past one team, but probably not both. A Big Ten championship game would help.
Nebraska's computer rankings are abysmal, and with no big games left on the schedule until the Big 12 Title game, they are out of the National Championship discussion. Texas, Kansas State, and Mississippi State (the next three in the computer rankings) do not even control their own destinies. They are out as well.
Of course, the other question is: would any of the current undefeated teams survive a loss and stay ahead of Boise State or TCU? Certainly, if any BCS conference team goes undefeated, they will be ahead of at least one of these two teams, if not both, in the polls, computers, BCS standings, etc. A 1-loss SEC team certainly will have more gusto in the computers, enough to withstand a spot or two in the human polls.
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010 Week Seven
I said: CSU 27, UNLV 17
Actual: CSU 43, UNLV 10
Note: Offensive explosion at home for CSU. Is UNLV that bad? Probably. 1-6, with a blowout loss to CSU, is plenty of evidence for it.
I said: Utah 31, Wyoming 17
Actual: Utah 30, Wyoming 6
Note: is the Utah defense better than I give them credit for or is the Wyoming offense worse? Combination of both, I am sure. Utah gets another easy game this week before the gauntlet begins. According to Jeff Sagarin, their strength of schedule is 110th. They are 6-0, against 5 teams that will have losing records and Pitt, who is 3-3. How good are the Utes? Does anybody really know? I think they are probably pretty darn good, but who can be sure? Anybody in the top 25 could be 6-0 with their schedule. Even BYU could probably be 6-0 with that patty-cake...well, let's not get nuts here: 5-1. Maybe.
I said: Air Force 31, SDSU 20
Actual: SDSU 27, Air Force 25
Note: I thought Air Force would try to establish Tew for 100 yards. In the first quarter, he got 5 carries for 16 yards, and well on his way, before breaking his leg. There went my gameplan. Air Force had tied the game with 2 minutes left before a replay overturned the two-point conversion attempt to tie and left them down two points. A failed onside kick and one big play later, they were down 9. You can't win them all.
That takes me to 36-4 in the MWC on the season, with a paltry 2-5 on BYU games.
Actual: CSU 43, UNLV 10
Note: Offensive explosion at home for CSU. Is UNLV that bad? Probably. 1-6, with a blowout loss to CSU, is plenty of evidence for it.
I said: Utah 31, Wyoming 17
Actual: Utah 30, Wyoming 6
Note: is the Utah defense better than I give them credit for or is the Wyoming offense worse? Combination of both, I am sure. Utah gets another easy game this week before the gauntlet begins. According to Jeff Sagarin, their strength of schedule is 110th. They are 6-0, against 5 teams that will have losing records and Pitt, who is 3-3. How good are the Utes? Does anybody really know? I think they are probably pretty darn good, but who can be sure? Anybody in the top 25 could be 6-0 with their schedule. Even BYU could probably be 6-0 with that patty-cake...well, let's not get nuts here: 5-1. Maybe.
I said: Air Force 31, SDSU 20
Actual: SDSU 27, Air Force 25
Note: I thought Air Force would try to establish Tew for 100 yards. In the first quarter, he got 5 carries for 16 yards, and well on his way, before breaking his leg. There went my gameplan. Air Force had tied the game with 2 minutes left before a replay overturned the two-point conversion attempt to tie and left them down two points. A failed onside kick and one big play later, they were down 9. You can't win them all.
That takes me to 36-4 in the MWC on the season, with a paltry 2-5 on BYU games.
Robert Anae (and 2010 BYU-TCU) Recap
I do not like to question certain things, like playcalling. It is easy for fans to sit in front of their TVs or in the stands and feel like they can call a better game than an Offensive Coordinator. The fact is: it is very difficult, in the heat of battle, to do things as effectively as they can be done, to decide in 10 seconds the best play to call in a situation that is unknown until that exact second (because an OC does not know how the previous play will finish). However, in Robert Anae's case, the playcalling is only part of it. The entire gameplan and strategy was as ineffective as the playcalling.
One could chalk up BYU's lack of success on offense to youth and inexperience. However, the group that is on the field right now is the group that Anae has been working with since last January. Heaps, the WRs, most of the TEs, the OL, and the 4-5 main RBs Anae is using have all been around the program AT LEAST 10 months now, and some of them are sophomores and juniors with a few years in the system already. Anae had spring ball. He had fall camp. These guys have now played in 7 games. They are not young and they are not inexperienced anymore: the freshman are basically sophomores, especially those that have been around since January. [Now the schedule did not exactly help BYU: they have played 7 potential bowl teams (and certainly at least 5 or 6 of them will go to a bowl game), with their 4 easiest games of the season coming in their next four games.] Anae, when is the time to open the playbook?
BYU had one very successful drive in the third quarter (I would like to point out it mostly included the type of playcalling I suggested). My question is: how could Anae have such a crap gameplan put together for the TCU game for the third consecutive year? Why did he finally turn to the only gameplan that had a chance in the second half, when BYU was down 17 points, and not from the start of the game? And then, after some power-running and play-action passing worked, the next possession he runs up the gut with Kariya for 8 yards on first down, only to go outside on two consecutive running plays with DiLuigi and be forced to punt? Anae, get it together, man. If something is working, keep doing that, or at least fake that: DiLuigi outside was not working all game. Also, if Heaps is going to play: let him play! Let him do what he does well: throw the ball all over the field: the screen play is nice and all, the fade may look tempting, but both are very ineffective. I have said it before and will repeat now: by trying to protect Heaps from failure, it becomes impossible for him to succeed.
The fact is: the defense played well enough for BYU to have a chance to win the game. Special teams played decently enough for BYU to have a chance in this game. TCU had 17 points going into the fourth quarter (14 of which were the result of poor OFFENSIVE strategy at the end of the first half). But the offense only managed 13 yards and 1 first down in the first half. I understand TCU has a great defense, but it was not the TCU defense that held BYU to 13 yards and 1 first down: it was the offensive coaching staff.
Bronco took measures to improve the defense. While I do not believe he needs to take similar measures with the offense, he needs to insert his opinion there. Everybody else is on board with playing BYU football again except for Robert Anae. With that said: BYU goes on the easy stretch of its schedule. In the next 5 weeks, they have 3 home games, a bye, and a road game against a 2-5 team (coming off a 3-9 season). San Diego State is the best of the rest in the MWC and they beat them, with a double-digit lead most of the game. I would be shocked (and asking for Anae's job) if they did not run over those 4, and were not 6-5 after this stretch, heading into the game at Utah.
One could chalk up BYU's lack of success on offense to youth and inexperience. However, the group that is on the field right now is the group that Anae has been working with since last January. Heaps, the WRs, most of the TEs, the OL, and the 4-5 main RBs Anae is using have all been around the program AT LEAST 10 months now, and some of them are sophomores and juniors with a few years in the system already. Anae had spring ball. He had fall camp. These guys have now played in 7 games. They are not young and they are not inexperienced anymore: the freshman are basically sophomores, especially those that have been around since January. [Now the schedule did not exactly help BYU: they have played 7 potential bowl teams (and certainly at least 5 or 6 of them will go to a bowl game), with their 4 easiest games of the season coming in their next four games.] Anae, when is the time to open the playbook?
BYU had one very successful drive in the third quarter (I would like to point out it mostly included the type of playcalling I suggested). My question is: how could Anae have such a crap gameplan put together for the TCU game for the third consecutive year? Why did he finally turn to the only gameplan that had a chance in the second half, when BYU was down 17 points, and not from the start of the game? And then, after some power-running and play-action passing worked, the next possession he runs up the gut with Kariya for 8 yards on first down, only to go outside on two consecutive running plays with DiLuigi and be forced to punt? Anae, get it together, man. If something is working, keep doing that, or at least fake that: DiLuigi outside was not working all game. Also, if Heaps is going to play: let him play! Let him do what he does well: throw the ball all over the field: the screen play is nice and all, the fade may look tempting, but both are very ineffective. I have said it before and will repeat now: by trying to protect Heaps from failure, it becomes impossible for him to succeed.
The fact is: the defense played well enough for BYU to have a chance to win the game. Special teams played decently enough for BYU to have a chance in this game. TCU had 17 points going into the fourth quarter (14 of which were the result of poor OFFENSIVE strategy at the end of the first half). But the offense only managed 13 yards and 1 first down in the first half. I understand TCU has a great defense, but it was not the TCU defense that held BYU to 13 yards and 1 first down: it was the offensive coaching staff.
Bronco took measures to improve the defense. While I do not believe he needs to take similar measures with the offense, he needs to insert his opinion there. Everybody else is on board with playing BYU football again except for Robert Anae. With that said: BYU goes on the easy stretch of its schedule. In the next 5 weeks, they have 3 home games, a bye, and a road game against a 2-5 team (coming off a 3-9 season). San Diego State is the best of the rest in the MWC and they beat them, with a double-digit lead most of the game. I would be shocked (and asking for Anae's job) if they did not run over those 4, and were not 6-5 after this stretch, heading into the game at Utah.
Friday, October 15, 2010
BYU-TCU Preview 2010
The final matchup between these two, more than likely ever, has the makings of a blowout. Although the last two years had the makings of good games and were blowouts. That can either be a really good sign or a really bad sign: 1) the games never play out like experts think or 2) even when BYU is good TCU is much, much better. Regardless of the "signs," here's an analysis on what to expect.
BYU O vs. TCU D
BYU has struggled to move the ball consistently from end to end. They have not been able to throw the ball like most BYU teams of the past. The running game has the most consistent part of the offense, but even that is not good (71st in the nation in yards/game). It showed signs of improvement last week against an undersized SDSU defense. Other encouraging notes about BYU's offense: dropped passes decreased dramatically from the first five games to SDSU. Heaps had his highest completion percentage and highest QB rating of the season, in spite of only throwing for 126 yards on 22 attempts. The offense has been moving in the right direction the past two games, but they are running up against a buzz-saw defense in the Horned Frogs. TCU is giving up 230 yards and 10.3 points/game. BYU is averaging 329 yards and 16.7 points/game. On the road, BYU is doing even worse. At home, TCU is doing even better. SMU is the only team to get 300 yards of offense against TCU. 3 opponents have not even scored in double-digits and a fourth one (Baylor) got exactly 10 points.
BYU will not get very good field position in the game. It is hard to imagine that they will be able to consistently drive the length of the field and get TDs. It is even hard to imagine marching down the field period. They just do not have the horses to recover from even a single mistake (penalty, sack, dropped pass, missed block on a running play) against this defense. I would be shocked to see this unit put 3 total scores on the board (13 points) unless the defense and special teams really help them out.
BYU D vs. TCU O
TCU moves the ball and scores points. TCU is averaging 279 yards/game on the ground. BYU gives up 225, although they showed improvement last week against SDSU. That was at home, and that was SDSU. It all starts with stopping TCU's rushing attack. If they can do that, they have a chance. However, TCU's worst output of the season was 190 yards rushing, and they have played several defenses better than BYU's.
If they stop TCU's rushing attack (hold it to less than 150 yards), they still have to deal with the passing game, which hasn't been great, but is still throwing for 200+ yards/game. Oh, and it has been known to make BYU look silly in recent years. Last season, in only 25 pass attempts, TCU had 285 passing yards, including two plays over 40 yards. The year before they only had 170 yards, in 19 attempts, but had 2 TDs. The key thing there is: yards in bunches. Anytime a team averages over 10 yards/ATTEMPT, they are doing something right. They have speed, size, trickery, and an experienced QB to lead this year's passing attack.
BYU showed signs of life last week on defense, but it still showed a lot of weaknesses. It would take an out-of-nowhere dominating performance to give BYU a chance to win. TCU can make mistakes, as long as they are not turnovers, and recover. That is the difference between the two teams. 2nd and 15 or 3rd and 12 are doable for this TCU team against this BYU team. I do not see any statistical chance that BYU can hold this TCU offense to less than 24 points.
Prediction
Well, it seems pretty obvious where I am going with this prediction. TCU has too much speed, ability, experience, talent, passion, motivation, etc. for a still growing and learning BYU team to consistently hold them down and consistently score on them. It would take both to win the game. It would be a huge miracle if Bronco Mendenhall could rally his troops in time to win this game. I think BYU manages to score once or twice on TCU miscues and ends their two-game shutout streak, but TCU still takes the game handily: TCU 38, BYU 10. I believe this to be an overly optimistic prediction. It certainly has the potential to be much, much uglier. Patterson says he does not "run up the score" on anybody, but his actions speak otherwise: his starters play at least 3.5 quarters almost every game.
BYU O vs. TCU D
BYU has struggled to move the ball consistently from end to end. They have not been able to throw the ball like most BYU teams of the past. The running game has the most consistent part of the offense, but even that is not good (71st in the nation in yards/game). It showed signs of improvement last week against an undersized SDSU defense. Other encouraging notes about BYU's offense: dropped passes decreased dramatically from the first five games to SDSU. Heaps had his highest completion percentage and highest QB rating of the season, in spite of only throwing for 126 yards on 22 attempts. The offense has been moving in the right direction the past two games, but they are running up against a buzz-saw defense in the Horned Frogs. TCU is giving up 230 yards and 10.3 points/game. BYU is averaging 329 yards and 16.7 points/game. On the road, BYU is doing even worse. At home, TCU is doing even better. SMU is the only team to get 300 yards of offense against TCU. 3 opponents have not even scored in double-digits and a fourth one (Baylor) got exactly 10 points.
BYU will not get very good field position in the game. It is hard to imagine that they will be able to consistently drive the length of the field and get TDs. It is even hard to imagine marching down the field period. They just do not have the horses to recover from even a single mistake (penalty, sack, dropped pass, missed block on a running play) against this defense. I would be shocked to see this unit put 3 total scores on the board (13 points) unless the defense and special teams really help them out.
BYU D vs. TCU O
TCU moves the ball and scores points. TCU is averaging 279 yards/game on the ground. BYU gives up 225, although they showed improvement last week against SDSU. That was at home, and that was SDSU. It all starts with stopping TCU's rushing attack. If they can do that, they have a chance. However, TCU's worst output of the season was 190 yards rushing, and they have played several defenses better than BYU's.
If they stop TCU's rushing attack (hold it to less than 150 yards), they still have to deal with the passing game, which hasn't been great, but is still throwing for 200+ yards/game. Oh, and it has been known to make BYU look silly in recent years. Last season, in only 25 pass attempts, TCU had 285 passing yards, including two plays over 40 yards. The year before they only had 170 yards, in 19 attempts, but had 2 TDs. The key thing there is: yards in bunches. Anytime a team averages over 10 yards/ATTEMPT, they are doing something right. They have speed, size, trickery, and an experienced QB to lead this year's passing attack.
BYU showed signs of life last week on defense, but it still showed a lot of weaknesses. It would take an out-of-nowhere dominating performance to give BYU a chance to win. TCU can make mistakes, as long as they are not turnovers, and recover. That is the difference between the two teams. 2nd and 15 or 3rd and 12 are doable for this TCU team against this BYU team. I do not see any statistical chance that BYU can hold this TCU offense to less than 24 points.
Prediction
Well, it seems pretty obvious where I am going with this prediction. TCU has too much speed, ability, experience, talent, passion, motivation, etc. for a still growing and learning BYU team to consistently hold them down and consistently score on them. It would take both to win the game. It would be a huge miracle if Bronco Mendenhall could rally his troops in time to win this game. I think BYU manages to score once or twice on TCU miscues and ends their two-game shutout streak, but TCU still takes the game handily: TCU 38, BYU 10. I believe this to be an overly optimistic prediction. It certainly has the potential to be much, much uglier. Patterson says he does not "run up the score" on anybody, but his actions speak otherwise: his starters play at least 3.5 quarters almost every game.
MWC Predictions, 2010 Week Seven
UNLV at Colorado State
CSU finally got the offense going a little bit last week, albeit in an atrocious defensive effort, against Air Force. UNLV has been scoring some points, but giving up much, much more. Look for CSU to feed off the home crowd and use the altitude to their advantage and pull away in the second half. If they can continue to throw the ball, that should help with both of those factors. Colorado State 27, UNLV 17.
Utah at Wyoming
The last time Utah went up to Laramie was the first time the fans started to believe they had the makings of a BCS team in 2008. This year, they have been feeling that way from the get-go. Is Laramie, the place where previous dreams were born, the place where they die this year? Not likely, but it's a decent, much improved Wyoming squad, by recent Wyoming standards. Their offense has struggled against good defenses, and, while I don't believe Utah has a great, 2008-caliber defense this season, Utah is a good one. Their defense has been shredded by anyone with athletic ability on the other side, which Utah has plenty of. Although in Utah's last trip to Laramie, Wyoming actually outgained them offensively. One big play and two big turnovers put Wyoming down 21-0 and effectively ended the game. I expect a similar result this time around, but with better offensive output by Utah. Utah wins on the road 31-17 over Wyoming.
Air Force at San Diego State
Two poor rushing defenses, two great rushing offenses. This sounds fun. San Diego State brings a lot more balance to the table than the triple-option Air Force offense. BYU pounded SDSU for over 250 yards last week. However, Air Force's attack is much different than BYU's and more perimeter-focused, which plays more to SDSU's defensive strengths. San Diego State has the better statistical defense of the two, but Air Force has held stronger opponents in check. But Air Force has to go on the road, where they are 1-1, with a loss to Oklahoma and a near-loss to Wyoming. This will be a huge test for San Diego State to see if they have really arrived, as people think they have. If Jared Tew (Air Force FB) can rush for near 100 yards, I like their chances. If Lindley can throw for 250, I like SDSU. Air Force secondary is too good for Lindley to have a good enough day and Air Force pulls this one out on the road: 31-20. The win pushes Air Force to 20th in the polls, and a similar ranking in the BCS standings, to come out Sunday night.
CSU finally got the offense going a little bit last week, albeit in an atrocious defensive effort, against Air Force. UNLV has been scoring some points, but giving up much, much more. Look for CSU to feed off the home crowd and use the altitude to their advantage and pull away in the second half. If they can continue to throw the ball, that should help with both of those factors. Colorado State 27, UNLV 17.
Utah at Wyoming
The last time Utah went up to Laramie was the first time the fans started to believe they had the makings of a BCS team in 2008. This year, they have been feeling that way from the get-go. Is Laramie, the place where previous dreams were born, the place where they die this year? Not likely, but it's a decent, much improved Wyoming squad, by recent Wyoming standards. Their offense has struggled against good defenses, and, while I don't believe Utah has a great, 2008-caliber defense this season, Utah is a good one. Their defense has been shredded by anyone with athletic ability on the other side, which Utah has plenty of. Although in Utah's last trip to Laramie, Wyoming actually outgained them offensively. One big play and two big turnovers put Wyoming down 21-0 and effectively ended the game. I expect a similar result this time around, but with better offensive output by Utah. Utah wins on the road 31-17 over Wyoming.
Air Force at San Diego State
Two poor rushing defenses, two great rushing offenses. This sounds fun. San Diego State brings a lot more balance to the table than the triple-option Air Force offense. BYU pounded SDSU for over 250 yards last week. However, Air Force's attack is much different than BYU's and more perimeter-focused, which plays more to SDSU's defensive strengths. San Diego State has the better statistical defense of the two, but Air Force has held stronger opponents in check. But Air Force has to go on the road, where they are 1-1, with a loss to Oklahoma and a near-loss to Wyoming. This will be a huge test for San Diego State to see if they have really arrived, as people think they have. If Jared Tew (Air Force FB) can rush for near 100 yards, I like their chances. If Lindley can throw for 250, I like SDSU. Air Force secondary is too good for Lindley to have a good enough day and Air Force pulls this one out on the road: 31-20. The win pushes Air Force to 20th in the polls, and a similar ranking in the BCS standings, to come out Sunday night.
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Thursday Thoughts, 2010 Week Seven
Buckeyes at Camp Randall
If you know any Buckeyes fans, they always talk about their recent struggles against Wisconsin at Camp Randall. Jim Tressel is actually 2-1 at Wisconsin, but all 3 games have been decided by a TD or less, with an average margin of victory of .33 points/game. I imagine we can expect another low-scoring close game this time around. First one to 17 points wins.
Statistically speaking, "at Purdue" is actually the game (besides BCS games) that Jim Tressel's Buckeyes have struggled with the most (with at least 3 games played): he is 2-2 at Purdue, with an average margin of victory of .25 points/game. Tressel is 4-0 at Indiana and Minnesota with average margin of victory of 25.5 and 17.75, respectively. He is also unbeaten, 3-0, at Michigan State with an average margin of victory of 27.3 points. He is 4-1 at Michigan, 3-1 at Northwestern, and 3-2 at Penn State. He is 1-1 against Iowa, a blowout loss and a blowout win, with another date there later this season.
Baseball Playoffs
Last year was the first time in my memory, besides my mission, where I did not watch a single pitch during the World Series. It looks as though we are headed for a rematch of my least favorite World Series matchup of all-time (well, maybe Cardinals-White Sox). Sad that an avid fan like me will have so little interest in the World Series two consecutive years. I was secretly hoping for a Twins-Reds World Series when this thing got started until the sweeps started...I can still hope for a Rangers-Giants series though.
The Iowa Factor
Hawkeye fans sure feel like they are going to have a say in the Big Ten title. They just thumped Penn State two weeks ago at home. That looked great until Penn State lost by a similar margin at home to Illinois. But let's be honest here, Hawkeye fans, Iowa has to play each of the good teams in the Big Ten: @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. They may get three of them at home, but, come on, it's still Iowa. They always find a way to to choke, even if it isn't against good teams. Last year it was Northwestern before the overtime thriller loss at Ohio State. Two years ago take your pick: Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois. Iowa may play spoiler to a Big Ten contender, but, for me, they are, as always, just a pretender in the most overrated conference in America.
Defense is SECondary This Year
Two top 15 SEC teams meet this Saturday when Arkansas travels to Auburn. One would expect a game involving two highly ranked SEC teams to be a defensive struggle. Not in this year's SEC West. Auburn is barely in the top 50 in scoring defense. Arkansas has fared better, but they are helped by a schedule that includes an FCS team and a Sun Belt team. I expect this game to get into the 30's for one or both teams. A shootout in the SEC West? Get used to it this season. Alabama is the only SEC West team with anything closely resembling a defense, and they gave up 35 points last weekend...
Change of Scenery
Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that the game with the biggest impact on the MWC race this weekend would be Air Force at San Diego State? With TCU-BYU on the docket, and an expected blowout, that is exactly the case. It is a bit refreshing to have two other teams matter this season, but, given how different the MWC will look next year, I would rather have things back to the way they were.
If you know any Buckeyes fans, they always talk about their recent struggles against Wisconsin at Camp Randall. Jim Tressel is actually 2-1 at Wisconsin, but all 3 games have been decided by a TD or less, with an average margin of victory of .33 points/game. I imagine we can expect another low-scoring close game this time around. First one to 17 points wins.
Statistically speaking, "at Purdue" is actually the game (besides BCS games) that Jim Tressel's Buckeyes have struggled with the most (with at least 3 games played): he is 2-2 at Purdue, with an average margin of victory of .25 points/game. Tressel is 4-0 at Indiana and Minnesota with average margin of victory of 25.5 and 17.75, respectively. He is also unbeaten, 3-0, at Michigan State with an average margin of victory of 27.3 points. He is 4-1 at Michigan, 3-1 at Northwestern, and 3-2 at Penn State. He is 1-1 against Iowa, a blowout loss and a blowout win, with another date there later this season.
Baseball Playoffs
Last year was the first time in my memory, besides my mission, where I did not watch a single pitch during the World Series. It looks as though we are headed for a rematch of my least favorite World Series matchup of all-time (well, maybe Cardinals-White Sox). Sad that an avid fan like me will have so little interest in the World Series two consecutive years. I was secretly hoping for a Twins-Reds World Series when this thing got started until the sweeps started...I can still hope for a Rangers-Giants series though.
The Iowa Factor
Hawkeye fans sure feel like they are going to have a say in the Big Ten title. They just thumped Penn State two weeks ago at home. That looked great until Penn State lost by a similar margin at home to Illinois. But let's be honest here, Hawkeye fans, Iowa has to play each of the good teams in the Big Ten: @ Michigan, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Ohio State. They may get three of them at home, but, come on, it's still Iowa. They always find a way to to choke, even if it isn't against good teams. Last year it was Northwestern before the overtime thriller loss at Ohio State. Two years ago take your pick: Northwestern, Michigan State, Illinois. Iowa may play spoiler to a Big Ten contender, but, for me, they are, as always, just a pretender in the most overrated conference in America.
Defense is SECondary This Year
Two top 15 SEC teams meet this Saturday when Arkansas travels to Auburn. One would expect a game involving two highly ranked SEC teams to be a defensive struggle. Not in this year's SEC West. Auburn is barely in the top 50 in scoring defense. Arkansas has fared better, but they are helped by a schedule that includes an FCS team and a Sun Belt team. I expect this game to get into the 30's for one or both teams. A shootout in the SEC West? Get used to it this season. Alabama is the only SEC West team with anything closely resembling a defense, and they gave up 35 points last weekend...
Change of Scenery
Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that the game with the biggest impact on the MWC race this weekend would be Air Force at San Diego State? With TCU-BYU on the docket, and an expected blowout, that is exactly the case. It is a bit refreshing to have two other teams matter this season, but, given how different the MWC will look next year, I would rather have things back to the way they were.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Wednesday Waffle, 2010 Week Seven
Attacking TCU: Two Philosophies
There are two basic thoughts on how to beat a defense like TCU's, that is based on speed and confusion, and is run from a unique set (4-2-5, 4 DL, 2 LBs, and 5 DBs). One, spread them out and force them to cover the whole field. Attack mostly on the perimeter with outside routes. Avoid the middle of the field. Two, spread them out and attack the middle of the field. I suppose there could be a hybrid of these two (called "balance"), but no one has tried that against TCU recently in my recollection.
BYU's Philosophy
The past two debacles for BYU against TCU has mostly focused on philosophy 1, getting outside. Hitting outside receivers or inside WRs/TEs running outside routes and running stretch/outside running plays. This didn't work either of the last two years with two NFL starters (Collie and Hall), two others who have made NFL rosters (Pitta and Unga), and one future NFL early round draft pick (Matt Reynolds). So why would it work with this group? In 2008, this strategy led to 2 INTs, a 52% completion percentage, 6 sacks, 2 fumbles, less than 1 yard/rush, and 23 total rushing yards. In 2009, BYU focused a little bit less on the outside with better statistical results: 1 INT, 64%, 5 sacks, 1 fumble, 3 yards/rush, and 110 total rushing yards.
Victors Over TCU
So how do you get it done offensively against TCU? Well, realistically, there is no way to get it done. Over the past 2.5 seasons, only 3 teams have beat TCU (Oklahoma, Utah, and Boise State). Only one (Oklahoma) did so with over 325 yards of offense and scored more than 20 points. If someone wants to beat TCU, whatever offensive strategy they employ must be coupled with a dominant defensive performance. Those three teams won their respective games by winning the turnover battle by at least 2. Two of the three also won the time of possession battle.
BYU 2008/2009 vs. 2010
This year's WRs do not have the ability to catch the ball, even when they are open, something unknown in 2008 and 2009. Jake Heaps has struggled throwing the ball outside, while Max Hall usually did not have many issues with that part of the game. With better offensive lines (and a QB with better pocket presence), BYU has given up an average of 5.5 sacks over the past two games against TCU. With better WRs/TEs, BYU has struggled to move the ball through the air, averaging less than 6 yards/attempt and with only 5 plays over 20 yards. With better RBs, BYU wasn't able to get the 4-5 yards/carry outside that they would need to move the chains against TCU's defense. Clearly, a new strategy needs to be employed, since the personnel has deteriorated.
What Would Mo Do
My BYU gameplan for attacking TCU would emphasize formational advantage and playcalling. Formations: 70% shotgun formation with 3 WRs/TEs outside, 2 RBs in the backfield, 20% shotgun formation with 4 WRs/TEs and 1 RB, 5% I-formation (no double-TE unless I was inside the 5-yard line), and 5% shotgun formation, empty backfield (5 WRs/TEs). Playcalling: 75% of all plays would either be a running play between the tackles, or a play-action pass off of a run between the tackles. I would call zero running plays outside, zero option reads with Marshall (TCU will run those plays down for losses and BYU would risk injuring Marshall for games when his skills could actually be effective), and no gadget plays that did not involve the ball back in Heaps' hands for a throw. The other 25% could be 3-step drop passes, maybe a couple of 5-step drops. And BYU has to take some shots down the field on those play-action passes and 5-step drops: it is impossible to beat TCU with the horizontal passing game. BYU must get SOME vertical action, especially if the TCU defense is crowding the box. They have too much speed. BYU has too little.
Essentially, I would play keep-away with my downhill running attack. BYU will not outspeed or trick their way to victory in this game. They have to rely on old-fashioned power football, similar to how they played against SDSU, but without the "Marshall Package." Size in the middle is TCU's biggest defensive weakness and BYU's biggest offensive strength. TCU comes at opponents from the edge, confusing them by bringing Safeties, Linebackers, and Corners: it is difficult to determine who is coming, and from where, and how to pass block them. The best way to beat that is simply to not worry about it: run between the tackles with a lead FB to hit the first man to cross his face. Safeties and Corners that roam inside the tackles are more easily blocked by interior linemen or fullbacks than they are outside, because the middle gives preference to those with size, not speed. The outside is just the opposite. Even when TCU loads the box, they usually only place 6 men between the tackles and 2 men outside (one on each side). The offense can counter with 6 blockers between the tackles and the back-side of the defense would have to respect the play-action.
The one thing I know is that BYU's previous plan of attack against TCU was worthless, as evidenced by 14 points in two games. BYU's only chance this game is to score more points. And their only chance of doing that is a complete scrapping of everything BYU has done against TCU the past two years, including going for it on 4th down when BYU is in field goal range. Take the points, when they are there. I do not envy Robert Anae's task this week, but if it does not involve a lot of power running, whatever he comes up with will fail.
There are two basic thoughts on how to beat a defense like TCU's, that is based on speed and confusion, and is run from a unique set (4-2-5, 4 DL, 2 LBs, and 5 DBs). One, spread them out and force them to cover the whole field. Attack mostly on the perimeter with outside routes. Avoid the middle of the field. Two, spread them out and attack the middle of the field. I suppose there could be a hybrid of these two (called "balance"), but no one has tried that against TCU recently in my recollection.
BYU's Philosophy
The past two debacles for BYU against TCU has mostly focused on philosophy 1, getting outside. Hitting outside receivers or inside WRs/TEs running outside routes and running stretch/outside running plays. This didn't work either of the last two years with two NFL starters (Collie and Hall), two others who have made NFL rosters (Pitta and Unga), and one future NFL early round draft pick (Matt Reynolds). So why would it work with this group? In 2008, this strategy led to 2 INTs, a 52% completion percentage, 6 sacks, 2 fumbles, less than 1 yard/rush, and 23 total rushing yards. In 2009, BYU focused a little bit less on the outside with better statistical results: 1 INT, 64%, 5 sacks, 1 fumble, 3 yards/rush, and 110 total rushing yards.
Victors Over TCU
So how do you get it done offensively against TCU? Well, realistically, there is no way to get it done. Over the past 2.5 seasons, only 3 teams have beat TCU (Oklahoma, Utah, and Boise State). Only one (Oklahoma) did so with over 325 yards of offense and scored more than 20 points. If someone wants to beat TCU, whatever offensive strategy they employ must be coupled with a dominant defensive performance. Those three teams won their respective games by winning the turnover battle by at least 2. Two of the three also won the time of possession battle.
BYU 2008/2009 vs. 2010
This year's WRs do not have the ability to catch the ball, even when they are open, something unknown in 2008 and 2009. Jake Heaps has struggled throwing the ball outside, while Max Hall usually did not have many issues with that part of the game. With better offensive lines (and a QB with better pocket presence), BYU has given up an average of 5.5 sacks over the past two games against TCU. With better WRs/TEs, BYU has struggled to move the ball through the air, averaging less than 6 yards/attempt and with only 5 plays over 20 yards. With better RBs, BYU wasn't able to get the 4-5 yards/carry outside that they would need to move the chains against TCU's defense. Clearly, a new strategy needs to be employed, since the personnel has deteriorated.
What Would Mo Do
My BYU gameplan for attacking TCU would emphasize formational advantage and playcalling. Formations: 70% shotgun formation with 3 WRs/TEs outside, 2 RBs in the backfield, 20% shotgun formation with 4 WRs/TEs and 1 RB, 5% I-formation (no double-TE unless I was inside the 5-yard line), and 5% shotgun formation, empty backfield (5 WRs/TEs). Playcalling: 75% of all plays would either be a running play between the tackles, or a play-action pass off of a run between the tackles. I would call zero running plays outside, zero option reads with Marshall (TCU will run those plays down for losses and BYU would risk injuring Marshall for games when his skills could actually be effective), and no gadget plays that did not involve the ball back in Heaps' hands for a throw. The other 25% could be 3-step drop passes, maybe a couple of 5-step drops. And BYU has to take some shots down the field on those play-action passes and 5-step drops: it is impossible to beat TCU with the horizontal passing game. BYU must get SOME vertical action, especially if the TCU defense is crowding the box. They have too much speed. BYU has too little.
Essentially, I would play keep-away with my downhill running attack. BYU will not outspeed or trick their way to victory in this game. They have to rely on old-fashioned power football, similar to how they played against SDSU, but without the "Marshall Package." Size in the middle is TCU's biggest defensive weakness and BYU's biggest offensive strength. TCU comes at opponents from the edge, confusing them by bringing Safeties, Linebackers, and Corners: it is difficult to determine who is coming, and from where, and how to pass block them. The best way to beat that is simply to not worry about it: run between the tackles with a lead FB to hit the first man to cross his face. Safeties and Corners that roam inside the tackles are more easily blocked by interior linemen or fullbacks than they are outside, because the middle gives preference to those with size, not speed. The outside is just the opposite. Even when TCU loads the box, they usually only place 6 men between the tackles and 2 men outside (one on each side). The offense can counter with 6 blockers between the tackles and the back-side of the defense would have to respect the play-action.
The one thing I know is that BYU's previous plan of attack against TCU was worthless, as evidenced by 14 points in two games. BYU's only chance this game is to score more points. And their only chance of doing that is a complete scrapping of everything BYU has done against TCU the past two years, including going for it on 4th down when BYU is in field goal range. Take the points, when they are there. I do not envy Robert Anae's task this week, but if it does not involve a lot of power running, whatever he comes up with will fail.
Monday, October 11, 2010
Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Seven
Win By 41 On The Road, Drop One Spot
Utah fans are up in arms about winning by 41 points at a BCS opponent and dropping a spot in the polls. Perhaps that is a valid complaint, but look at who jumped the Utes: 6-0 LSU, who is the first team to win at the Swamp in over two years, and 4-1 South Carolina, who just beat the #1 team in the country, and defending National Champion, by 14 points and whose only loss is an 8-point setback on the road at #7 Auburn. In reality, the Utes dropped for one reason: Strength of Schedule. Utah 136th, LSU 20th, and South Carolina 24th, according to Jeff Sagarin. Consequently, South Carolina's win over Alabama this year jumped them in the polls over the last team to beat Alabama two years ago: Utah.
(No Longer) Top 10 Strength of Schedule
With the win over San Diego State, BYU's strength of schedule has officially left the top 10, coming in at number 11. Perhaps if they had lost, they would have stayed in the top 10. With a game on the road against a top 5 team, however, they will likely get right back there next week. Currently, 5 of the teams from BYU's 12-game schedule are in the top 25. That is a lot of good opponents in a rebuilding year. They have only played 3 of them so far!
We're Not The Worst, Part I
The battle for the best team in New Mexico might have been the battle to not be the worst team in the country. New Mexico State beat New Mexico and is officially not the worst team in the country. Although, the home team is typically "awarded" 3 points by oddsmakers, and NMSU only won by 2...
We're Not The Worst, Part II
After holding San Diego State to 53 rushing yards (38 on one carry), BYU is no longer the worst rushing defense in I-A. They are now listed as 113th (of 120 teams). They will probably need to hold TCU to under 300 to feel safe of not returning to 120th: anyone taking bets on that one? TCU is currently averaging 279 yards/game.
Big Dogs
BYU is currently listed as a 30-point underdog for this weekend's matchup against TCU. When was the last time BYU was a 30-point underdog? My guess would be one of two games in Crowton's final season: USC and Utah, but I do not know for sure that they were in either of those games. As a side note, they did lose those games by 32 and 31, respectively. Does anyone know the last time this happened with any definitive certainty? 30 points is a LOT.
Weekly Charting of BYU Drives
Against SDSU, BYU had 7 meaningful drives across the 50 and managed 24 points. That is, by far, the best showing of the season. Bronco has turned this program around in one week from a lifeless robotic team to one with fight, swagger,and punch. Unfortunately, he'll need to help them improve as much from SDSU to TCU as they did from Utah State to SDSU in order to have any chance this weekend...even then, it's a dicey proposition in Fort Worth this Saturday.
MLB/BYU Trivia
I learned yesterday that Jack Morris was a pitcher at BYU before trying his hand in the Major Leagues for 18 seasons with the Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays, and Indians. He won 4 World Series. He had the best World Series Game 7 pitching performance ever, which, in my mind, automatically puts it up in the top 3 best postseason pitching performances of all time. He threw 10 shutout innings in a 1-0 10-inning win for the Twins over the Braves in 1991. It was his third start of the series and he was named World Series MVP. Not bad for a former BYU pitcher. Nobody like that in the pipeline right now though...
Utah fans are up in arms about winning by 41 points at a BCS opponent and dropping a spot in the polls. Perhaps that is a valid complaint, but look at who jumped the Utes: 6-0 LSU, who is the first team to win at the Swamp in over two years, and 4-1 South Carolina, who just beat the #1 team in the country, and defending National Champion, by 14 points and whose only loss is an 8-point setback on the road at #7 Auburn. In reality, the Utes dropped for one reason: Strength of Schedule. Utah 136th, LSU 20th, and South Carolina 24th, according to Jeff Sagarin. Consequently, South Carolina's win over Alabama this year jumped them in the polls over the last team to beat Alabama two years ago: Utah.
(No Longer) Top 10 Strength of Schedule
With the win over San Diego State, BYU's strength of schedule has officially left the top 10, coming in at number 11. Perhaps if they had lost, they would have stayed in the top 10. With a game on the road against a top 5 team, however, they will likely get right back there next week. Currently, 5 of the teams from BYU's 12-game schedule are in the top 25. That is a lot of good opponents in a rebuilding year. They have only played 3 of them so far!
We're Not The Worst, Part I
The battle for the best team in New Mexico might have been the battle to not be the worst team in the country. New Mexico State beat New Mexico and is officially not the worst team in the country. Although, the home team is typically "awarded" 3 points by oddsmakers, and NMSU only won by 2...
We're Not The Worst, Part II
After holding San Diego State to 53 rushing yards (38 on one carry), BYU is no longer the worst rushing defense in I-A. They are now listed as 113th (of 120 teams). They will probably need to hold TCU to under 300 to feel safe of not returning to 120th: anyone taking bets on that one? TCU is currently averaging 279 yards/game.
Big Dogs
BYU is currently listed as a 30-point underdog for this weekend's matchup against TCU. When was the last time BYU was a 30-point underdog? My guess would be one of two games in Crowton's final season: USC and Utah, but I do not know for sure that they were in either of those games. As a side note, they did lose those games by 32 and 31, respectively. Does anyone know the last time this happened with any definitive certainty? 30 points is a LOT.
Weekly Charting of BYU Drives
Against SDSU, BYU had 7 meaningful drives across the 50 and managed 24 points. That is, by far, the best showing of the season. Bronco has turned this program around in one week from a lifeless robotic team to one with fight, swagger,and punch. Unfortunately, he'll need to help them improve as much from SDSU to TCU as they did from Utah State to SDSU in order to have any chance this weekend...even then, it's a dicey proposition in Fort Worth this Saturday.
MLB/BYU Trivia
I learned yesterday that Jack Morris was a pitcher at BYU before trying his hand in the Major Leagues for 18 seasons with the Tigers, Twins, Blue Jays, and Indians. He won 4 World Series. He had the best World Series Game 7 pitching performance ever, which, in my mind, automatically puts it up in the top 3 best postseason pitching performances of all time. He threw 10 shutout innings in a 1-0 10-inning win for the Twins over the Braves in 1991. It was his third start of the series and he was named World Series MVP. Not bad for a former BYU pitcher. Nobody like that in the pipeline right now though...
MWC Predictions Recap, 2010, Week 6
I said: Air Force 34, CSU 6
Actual: AFA 49, CSU 27
Note: Offensive explosion for both teams. Congrats to Air Force who moved up to 23 in the rankings. They have one more chance to break the top 20 with a win at SDSU before playing at TCU and against Utah, which would ruin just about anyone's season.
I said: West Virginia 34, UNLV 24
Actual: 49-10, WVU
Note: About what I expected to happen, but I had to take at least one risk in my predictions...
I said: TCU 48, Wyoming 10
Actual: TCU 45, Wyoming 0
Note: Scoring on TCU is even harder than I thought. Good luck this weekend, BYU...
I said: Utah 31, Iowa State 27
Actual: Utah 68, Iowa State 27
Note: I was perfect on Iowa State's score...I still just do not know how great Utah is right now. I know they are pretty good. But the Pitt win loses more luster each week. However, to score 68 on the road against anybody is very impressive, and consider that this is a BCS conference team that went to, and won, a bowl game last season. I cannot wait for their test stretch: at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame. THEN we will know something about them...
I said: New Mexico State 24, New Mexico 17
Actual: NMSU 16, UNM 14.
Note: Um...yeah.
So that takes me to 34-3 on the MWC season, for those of you scoring at home, or if you're alone.
Actual: AFA 49, CSU 27
Note: Offensive explosion for both teams. Congrats to Air Force who moved up to 23 in the rankings. They have one more chance to break the top 20 with a win at SDSU before playing at TCU and against Utah, which would ruin just about anyone's season.
I said: West Virginia 34, UNLV 24
Actual: 49-10, WVU
Note: About what I expected to happen, but I had to take at least one risk in my predictions...
I said: TCU 48, Wyoming 10
Actual: TCU 45, Wyoming 0
Note: Scoring on TCU is even harder than I thought. Good luck this weekend, BYU...
I said: Utah 31, Iowa State 27
Actual: Utah 68, Iowa State 27
Note: I was perfect on Iowa State's score...I still just do not know how great Utah is right now. I know they are pretty good. But the Pitt win loses more luster each week. However, to score 68 on the road against anybody is very impressive, and consider that this is a BCS conference team that went to, and won, a bowl game last season. I cannot wait for their test stretch: at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame. THEN we will know something about them...
I said: New Mexico State 24, New Mexico 17
Actual: NMSU 16, UNM 14.
Note: Um...yeah.
So that takes me to 34-3 on the MWC season, for those of you scoring at home, or if you're alone.
Saturday, October 9, 2010
I Saw It, But I Don't Believe It
The biggest conclusion one can draw from the game today: I am the reason for BYU's lack of success this season. If I pick them to win, they will lose. If I pick them to lose, they have a good shot! In all actuality, I had this game pegged as either a 31-13 blowout loss or a 24-21 win (see final paragraph of preview): after a coin flip I went with the 31-13 loss. Either way, I will be sure to pick them to lose a few more times this season, so they will have a chance...
There were a few plays early on that sparked the team. A fake field goal, perfectly executed that extended the opening drive and led to a touchdown. Then an INT on the next play from scrimmage by Brandon Ogletree (of course it would not be a defensive back) that also led to a touchdown. Then a promising drive that ended with a 2nd and goal interception thrown by Jake Heaps from the 1-yard line. Until that play, this game looked very much like old-style BYU football. After that play, however, most of the rest of the game looked like the new-style BYU football. Sloppy play, poor tackling, and open receivers running all over them.
BYU made a decision after that INT by Heaps: they were going to grind this game out on the ground. 62 rushing attempts, 23 passing attempts. It was very effective. San Diego State had the ball less than 15 minutes in the game. BYU had the ball for three full quarters. I do not believe I have ever seen it that lopsided before. I have seen 42 and 43 minutes on a couple of occasions. Crazy. But it was successful. DiLuigi averaged 6.1 yards/carry, Quezada 4.5, and Kariya ended the game with a 3.9 average, mostly because he was grinding out 2 and 3 yards at the end when SDSU knew BYU was running. He was up over 5/carry for most of the game and had two TDs.
There were some good things, but still some things that make me wonder how BYU will score at all against TCU next week.
The Bad
Punting: a 12-yard punt, a low line drive, and a pooch kick into the end zone. If TCU has a good chance to return a kick, or starts with better field position, those will lead to points. The backup punter must be bad to have not seen ANY action yet this season. One good punt in 4 tries is unacceptable. Riley Stephenson has one job: to punt. And he has been horrendous at it 4 out of 6 games. And, of course, he kicked off out of bounds once on a kickoff as well, just after BYU went up 14-0: way to go for the jugular...
Yards After Catch/Cutting Upfield: I should not criticize this since most weeks there have not been any C's to YA. However, it is obvious that DiLuigi tries to cut outside too much. The two times he stayed inside instead of bouncing outside were two of his three rushes over 20 yards. Good things happen when JJ follows his 300-pound OL. The receivers do the same thing: cut outside always. Some times, a lot of times, the middle of the field will yield more yards. And, while being grateful for only one dropped pass this week, it would be nice to see a little better tucking the ball after the catch. It caught up to BYU with one fumble, at the 20-yard line moving in to score.
Heaps' Internal Clock: for some of the non-freshman plays Heaps makes, he has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long. Both sacks of Heaps today were on him. They are coverage sacks, because nobody is open, but Heaps needs to get rid of the ball. It also seems that Heaps looks to make the throw he can rifle if given the choice between a touch pass and a need-to-gun-it. His interception in the end zone came with a shorter receiver who had 3 steps on his man. His man was baiting Heaps into throwing to the deep receiver and picked it off when he went there. Heaps could have hit the outside receiver or lobbed to the corner to the guy he threw to instead of firing the ball.
The Good
Running attack: with the exception of 4 or 5 double TE, I-formation runs into 9 guys, this was great. They pounded Kariya inside. Ran Quezada off-tackle. DiLuigi did a little bit of both. All-in-all, 271 yards is a dominating performance. Controlling the clock, grinding out the game, and eventually winning it with a 6.5 yard run on 3rd and 6 and 1:20 on the clock. This was awesome. Also, Bryan Kariya on the blitz pick-up is awesome. How many times does he come across formation to light up some unsuspecting LB who thinks he has a free shot at the QB?
Heaps over the middle: I would like to see Jake Heaps stats throwing the ball over the middle compared to everywhere else. It seems like he completes it 90% of the time. The receivers have a chance to gain a few extra yards after the catch. It is a thing of beauty. Why they do not do it more is a little baffling. I would like to see one of those long-developing play-action deep outs turn into a post route, just to see what happens.
Aggressive play-calling: the fake field goal call was beautiful, and the throw was perfect. The blitzing was amazing: safeties, corners, 6 guys came on multiple plays, and they brought 5 quite a few times as well. They ran the option which worked every time but one or two, even when Heaps ran it, and I liked the "wild Cougar" package with Matt Marshall. It was nice to see some gambling, aggressive play out there. I think 2004 was the last time we saw this many risks taken in a single game. BYU has been playing so poorly, I guess they felt they might as well. At least no one can fault them for their effort.
Kyle Van Noy (and other LBs): I am sad that he got his big chance because of injury but I am excited that he got his chance. The man was all over the field. He ran across the field, he was in the backfield, he even chased down Ronnie Hillman on his only big rushing play of the night. I have been waiting for a LB to make some plays like he did in the first half. He was a little quieter in the second half, but I think they made a conscious effort to avoid him. Ogletree got a huge pick. Wagner did well in coverage. The LBs did not have a great game collectively, but that was due to SDSU's pass-happy strategy. Their playcalling was 3-1, passing to rushing.
BYU fans have got to feel better about their chances to make a bowl game now. This was the best of the bottom five, and they got the win. They will certainly lose to TCU, and in all likelihood lose big to Utah, but UNLV, Wyoming, CSU, and New Mexico could all be wins. And who knows, after running off 4 wins in a row, while Utah is playing at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, and SDSU, they might go into that Utah game with a chance at winning...don't hold your breath though. After a slow start on the road against Iowa State, the Utes racked up 506 yards and 58 points in the final 3 quarters. Plus they had a 78-yard punt return to the 2-yard line and returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD. Dang, Gina!
There were a few plays early on that sparked the team. A fake field goal, perfectly executed that extended the opening drive and led to a touchdown. Then an INT on the next play from scrimmage by Brandon Ogletree (of course it would not be a defensive back) that also led to a touchdown. Then a promising drive that ended with a 2nd and goal interception thrown by Jake Heaps from the 1-yard line. Until that play, this game looked very much like old-style BYU football. After that play, however, most of the rest of the game looked like the new-style BYU football. Sloppy play, poor tackling, and open receivers running all over them.
BYU made a decision after that INT by Heaps: they were going to grind this game out on the ground. 62 rushing attempts, 23 passing attempts. It was very effective. San Diego State had the ball less than 15 minutes in the game. BYU had the ball for three full quarters. I do not believe I have ever seen it that lopsided before. I have seen 42 and 43 minutes on a couple of occasions. Crazy. But it was successful. DiLuigi averaged 6.1 yards/carry, Quezada 4.5, and Kariya ended the game with a 3.9 average, mostly because he was grinding out 2 and 3 yards at the end when SDSU knew BYU was running. He was up over 5/carry for most of the game and had two TDs.
There were some good things, but still some things that make me wonder how BYU will score at all against TCU next week.
The Bad
Punting: a 12-yard punt, a low line drive, and a pooch kick into the end zone. If TCU has a good chance to return a kick, or starts with better field position, those will lead to points. The backup punter must be bad to have not seen ANY action yet this season. One good punt in 4 tries is unacceptable. Riley Stephenson has one job: to punt. And he has been horrendous at it 4 out of 6 games. And, of course, he kicked off out of bounds once on a kickoff as well, just after BYU went up 14-0: way to go for the jugular...
Yards After Catch/Cutting Upfield: I should not criticize this since most weeks there have not been any C's to YA. However, it is obvious that DiLuigi tries to cut outside too much. The two times he stayed inside instead of bouncing outside were two of his three rushes over 20 yards. Good things happen when JJ follows his 300-pound OL. The receivers do the same thing: cut outside always. Some times, a lot of times, the middle of the field will yield more yards. And, while being grateful for only one dropped pass this week, it would be nice to see a little better tucking the ball after the catch. It caught up to BYU with one fumble, at the 20-yard line moving in to score.
Heaps' Internal Clock: for some of the non-freshman plays Heaps makes, he has a tendency to hold on to the ball too long. Both sacks of Heaps today were on him. They are coverage sacks, because nobody is open, but Heaps needs to get rid of the ball. It also seems that Heaps looks to make the throw he can rifle if given the choice between a touch pass and a need-to-gun-it. His interception in the end zone came with a shorter receiver who had 3 steps on his man. His man was baiting Heaps into throwing to the deep receiver and picked it off when he went there. Heaps could have hit the outside receiver or lobbed to the corner to the guy he threw to instead of firing the ball.
The Good
Running attack: with the exception of 4 or 5 double TE, I-formation runs into 9 guys, this was great. They pounded Kariya inside. Ran Quezada off-tackle. DiLuigi did a little bit of both. All-in-all, 271 yards is a dominating performance. Controlling the clock, grinding out the game, and eventually winning it with a 6.5 yard run on 3rd and 6 and 1:20 on the clock. This was awesome. Also, Bryan Kariya on the blitz pick-up is awesome. How many times does he come across formation to light up some unsuspecting LB who thinks he has a free shot at the QB?
Heaps over the middle: I would like to see Jake Heaps stats throwing the ball over the middle compared to everywhere else. It seems like he completes it 90% of the time. The receivers have a chance to gain a few extra yards after the catch. It is a thing of beauty. Why they do not do it more is a little baffling. I would like to see one of those long-developing play-action deep outs turn into a post route, just to see what happens.
Aggressive play-calling: the fake field goal call was beautiful, and the throw was perfect. The blitzing was amazing: safeties, corners, 6 guys came on multiple plays, and they brought 5 quite a few times as well. They ran the option which worked every time but one or two, even when Heaps ran it, and I liked the "wild Cougar" package with Matt Marshall. It was nice to see some gambling, aggressive play out there. I think 2004 was the last time we saw this many risks taken in a single game. BYU has been playing so poorly, I guess they felt they might as well. At least no one can fault them for their effort.
Kyle Van Noy (and other LBs): I am sad that he got his big chance because of injury but I am excited that he got his chance. The man was all over the field. He ran across the field, he was in the backfield, he even chased down Ronnie Hillman on his only big rushing play of the night. I have been waiting for a LB to make some plays like he did in the first half. He was a little quieter in the second half, but I think they made a conscious effort to avoid him. Ogletree got a huge pick. Wagner did well in coverage. The LBs did not have a great game collectively, but that was due to SDSU's pass-happy strategy. Their playcalling was 3-1, passing to rushing.
BYU fans have got to feel better about their chances to make a bowl game now. This was the best of the bottom five, and they got the win. They will certainly lose to TCU, and in all likelihood lose big to Utah, but UNLV, Wyoming, CSU, and New Mexico could all be wins. And who knows, after running off 4 wins in a row, while Utah is playing at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, and SDSU, they might go into that Utah game with a chance at winning...don't hold your breath though. After a slow start on the road against Iowa State, the Utes racked up 506 yards and 58 points in the final 3 quarters. Plus they had a 78-yard punt return to the 2-yard line and returned a kickoff 100 yards for a TD. Dang, Gina!
Friday, October 8, 2010
SDSU-BYU Preview
I am convinced that BYU just needs one play early in the game this weekend to change their fortunes for the season. An interception, a sack, a big touchdown catch, or an amazing 50-yard open-field running play. Any of those would do. If that play happens, and happens early, I think the WHOLE TEAM would gain confidence and play with more swagger. The dropped passes would go away. The big plays against the defense would get stopped before they got started. If that play happens, BYU should be able to muster enough confidence, effort, and execution the last 3 quarters to pull off a win.
However, then I look down the BYU roster. No DB is close enough in coverage to get an interception (and even if ONE is, the other 3 probably aren't and the QB will go their direction). No DL or LB is a good enough pass rusher to get a sack on his own (and bringing 6 or 7 isn't an option with some of the blown coverages they have had). No WR has good enough hands to catch a big pass (and those skills deteriorate even further when in the red zone). No RB is capable of breaking the big play AND getting into the end zone (watch JJ DiLuigi highlight videos and notice not many of those big runs result in TDs...). They need somebody to make something happen, but I see very few players capable of making something happen. Jacobson could do it. JJ could do it. Maybe. If the offense improves a little, the defense will follow suit. If the defense improves a little, the offense will put up more points too.
Without that play in the first quarter, or even the second quarter, I do not see how BYU competes in this game. They are already a bit demoralized: if they get down 14-0, that "here we go again" mentality sets in, and when that happens: game over BYU just does not have the skill on defense to continuously stop any decent offense, which SDSU certainly qualifies as. Offensively, they are not executing well enough to march down the field and score at all, let alone 4 or 5 times in a game, and they do not have a big play threat on the roster to make a one-play drive. (Or if they do have that guy, they have done a good job keeping him under wraps for 5 games.)
BYU Offense vs. SDSU Defense
SDSU has really only played one good offense and gave up 27 points on the road. They have also got big, early leads and opponents have been forced to go throw-heavy. It sounds very similar to BYU's season, only in reverse: get behind early and start chucking the ball all over the field. The running game has been effective in spurts, but they have to throw so much in the second half and lose any balance they had. If Jake Heaps has to throw over 50 times again, BYU is in trouble. Ideally, BYU probably wants only about 30-35 attempts from him. Realistically, BYU just has to start getting from the 40 to the 25 and get field goals instead of punts, or from the 30 to the 15 and take shots at the end zone instead of long field goals or failed fourth down attempts. Most of their drives are stalling between the 40 and 30. BYU's poor, predictable strategy to this point might actually work against SDSU: teams have success running the ball against SDSU inside the 30-yard line. So as tempting as it might be to throw the fade, BYU would be better served to run the ball and go play-action pass, and test out one of those TEs crossing the middle of the field. Realistically, BYU needs 24 points to have a chance in the game. Without something big happening early, they will not get there. If they can improve just a little bit, they can keep the Cougars in the game and give themselves a chance at winning. But the question is: can they?
BYU Defense vs. SDSU Offense
Ryan Lindley really has not improved his accuracy this season. That said, BYU has a way to make average QBs look like All Americans. His completion percentage on the season is 54%. BYU needs to keep him there, if he is up at 60% or higher, that is a 300-yard game waiting to happen. He has two big, solid WRs, and he stares them down. But, with Logan and Bradley, they could not stop those two even if they knew where the ball was going. If, by some miracle, they do find a way to stop WRs DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown, they will also have to figure out how to stop RB Ronnie Hillman who is averaging 6.4 yards/carry and 133 yards and 2 TDs/game. BYU is dead last in rushing defense in the nation. Eastern Michigan, Western Kentucky, Washington State, New Mexico State: all have stopped the run better than BYU this season. Losing OLB Jordan Pendleton and playing an ailing, limping, contused SS Andrew Rich will not help that. One thing I do know: they will play with passion this week. But passion can lead to mistakes, and BYU, while playing uninspired, has made enough of those: add a few more of those and they are toast. There is no logical reason to suppose that BYU can stop SDSU. If having Bronco run practices and coach the defense can help them improve even a little bit, the defense can keep the Cougars in the game and allow the offense to maintain balance, and probably score more points as a result. But the question is: will that help?
While I am not sold on SDSU being a good team, I am sold on BYU being a bad team. Will Bronco's gamble with the defense pay off? Will the return of O'Neill Chambers keep Luke Ashworth on the sideline enough for the offense to have a chance to score? BYU COULD have gotten back on track this week, But there are still so many questions. To me, this is one of those games that BYU either plays well and wins a close one, or we see the same thing from them that we have seen all season and they get blown out. I am leaning toward the latter, and by virtue of a coinflip, I have made my final decision. Either BYU's record is going to improve, or my record of picking them is going to improve (we're both 1-4 right now): I am going with SDSU to beat BYU at homecoming in Provo, 31-13.
I hope I see that turning point play early in the game, the one that inspires this team to greatness. The one that gets the offense rolling. The one that gets the defense fired up. The one that gets the team back to playing winning BYU football and guides them to a 24-21 victory over the Aztecs and preserves hope of going to a bowl game. But, at this point, I'd have to see it (and a few replays of it afterwards) to believe it.
However, then I look down the BYU roster. No DB is close enough in coverage to get an interception (and even if ONE is, the other 3 probably aren't and the QB will go their direction). No DL or LB is a good enough pass rusher to get a sack on his own (and bringing 6 or 7 isn't an option with some of the blown coverages they have had). No WR has good enough hands to catch a big pass (and those skills deteriorate even further when in the red zone). No RB is capable of breaking the big play AND getting into the end zone (watch JJ DiLuigi highlight videos and notice not many of those big runs result in TDs...). They need somebody to make something happen, but I see very few players capable of making something happen. Jacobson could do it. JJ could do it. Maybe. If the offense improves a little, the defense will follow suit. If the defense improves a little, the offense will put up more points too.
Without that play in the first quarter, or even the second quarter, I do not see how BYU competes in this game. They are already a bit demoralized: if they get down 14-0, that "here we go again" mentality sets in, and when that happens: game over BYU just does not have the skill on defense to continuously stop any decent offense, which SDSU certainly qualifies as. Offensively, they are not executing well enough to march down the field and score at all, let alone 4 or 5 times in a game, and they do not have a big play threat on the roster to make a one-play drive. (Or if they do have that guy, they have done a good job keeping him under wraps for 5 games.)
BYU Offense vs. SDSU Defense
SDSU has really only played one good offense and gave up 27 points on the road. They have also got big, early leads and opponents have been forced to go throw-heavy. It sounds very similar to BYU's season, only in reverse: get behind early and start chucking the ball all over the field. The running game has been effective in spurts, but they have to throw so much in the second half and lose any balance they had. If Jake Heaps has to throw over 50 times again, BYU is in trouble. Ideally, BYU probably wants only about 30-35 attempts from him. Realistically, BYU just has to start getting from the 40 to the 25 and get field goals instead of punts, or from the 30 to the 15 and take shots at the end zone instead of long field goals or failed fourth down attempts. Most of their drives are stalling between the 40 and 30. BYU's poor, predictable strategy to this point might actually work against SDSU: teams have success running the ball against SDSU inside the 30-yard line. So as tempting as it might be to throw the fade, BYU would be better served to run the ball and go play-action pass, and test out one of those TEs crossing the middle of the field. Realistically, BYU needs 24 points to have a chance in the game. Without something big happening early, they will not get there. If they can improve just a little bit, they can keep the Cougars in the game and give themselves a chance at winning. But the question is: can they?
BYU Defense vs. SDSU Offense
Ryan Lindley really has not improved his accuracy this season. That said, BYU has a way to make average QBs look like All Americans. His completion percentage on the season is 54%. BYU needs to keep him there, if he is up at 60% or higher, that is a 300-yard game waiting to happen. He has two big, solid WRs, and he stares them down. But, with Logan and Bradley, they could not stop those two even if they knew where the ball was going. If, by some miracle, they do find a way to stop WRs DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown, they will also have to figure out how to stop RB Ronnie Hillman who is averaging 6.4 yards/carry and 133 yards and 2 TDs/game. BYU is dead last in rushing defense in the nation. Eastern Michigan, Western Kentucky, Washington State, New Mexico State: all have stopped the run better than BYU this season. Losing OLB Jordan Pendleton and playing an ailing, limping, contused SS Andrew Rich will not help that. One thing I do know: they will play with passion this week. But passion can lead to mistakes, and BYU, while playing uninspired, has made enough of those: add a few more of those and they are toast. There is no logical reason to suppose that BYU can stop SDSU. If having Bronco run practices and coach the defense can help them improve even a little bit, the defense can keep the Cougars in the game and allow the offense to maintain balance, and probably score more points as a result. But the question is: will that help?
While I am not sold on SDSU being a good team, I am sold on BYU being a bad team. Will Bronco's gamble with the defense pay off? Will the return of O'Neill Chambers keep Luke Ashworth on the sideline enough for the offense to have a chance to score? BYU COULD have gotten back on track this week, But there are still so many questions. To me, this is one of those games that BYU either plays well and wins a close one, or we see the same thing from them that we have seen all season and they get blown out. I am leaning toward the latter, and by virtue of a coinflip, I have made my final decision. Either BYU's record is going to improve, or my record of picking them is going to improve (we're both 1-4 right now): I am going with SDSU to beat BYU at homecoming in Provo, 31-13.
I hope I see that turning point play early in the game, the one that inspires this team to greatness. The one that gets the offense rolling. The one that gets the defense fired up. The one that gets the team back to playing winning BYU football and guides them to a 24-21 victory over the Aztecs and preserves hope of going to a bowl game. But, at this point, I'd have to see it (and a few replays of it afterwards) to believe it.
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