I feel the least confident here as I do in any of my other predictions...but here goes:
t-1: Penn State (winner of head-to-head with Ohio State, but drops a conference road game)
t-1: Ohio State (loses both of its tough games: USC and at Penn State)
3: Michigan State (gets Iowa at home to snag 3rd place: should be a good season for Sparty, most of their tough conference games are at home)
4: Iowa (a noble effort from the perennially overrated Hawkeyes)
5: Northwestern (if they can pull off the upset against Penn State...)
t-6: Illinois (better than last year, but still not a great end to a career for the Juice)
t-6: Wisconsin (they've got a difficult slate this year)
8: Michigan (biggest movement upward of any team, but there was plenty of room for improvement)
9: Minnesota (one step forward last year, two steps back this year)
10: Purdue (not too long ago Tiller had an upper echelon team, now he's retired and not a moment too soon: they could spring an upset or two but don't expect them to compete for the Rose Bowl bid)
11: Indiana (just hoping for a win in conference)
Monday, August 31, 2009
Thursday, August 27, 2009
65 predictions, #13 ACC Coastal, #12 ACC Atlantic
Sorry, I'm a little behind. I've been fixing up my house.
Each division in the ACC I give a nod to over the MWC, with the Atlantic having just a little more balance than the Coastal. The Coastal is better at the top but when you have Duke and Virginia, yeah.
Coastal
1: Virginia Tech
2. Miami
3. Georgia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Duke
6. Virginia
Atlantic
1: Florida State
2: Clemson
3: Boston College
4: NC State
5: Wake Forest
6: Maryland
Next up: the Big Ten, followed by the SEC West, the Pac 10, the SEC East, and the Big 12 South, my toughest division in football.
Each division in the ACC I give a nod to over the MWC, with the Atlantic having just a little more balance than the Coastal. The Coastal is better at the top but when you have Duke and Virginia, yeah.
Coastal
1: Virginia Tech
2. Miami
3. Georgia Tech
4. North Carolina
5. Duke
6. Virginia
Atlantic
1: Florida State
2: Clemson
3: Boston College
4: NC State
5: Wake Forest
6: Maryland
Next up: the Big Ten, followed by the SEC West, the Pac 10, the SEC East, and the Big 12 South, my toughest division in football.
Thursday, August 20, 2009
65 predictions, #14 Mountain West Conference
Well, today is the day that most of you loyal readers care about: Mountain West Conference predictions. So I will go into a little more detail on this than I have been doing.
1: TCU. To me, it's really a toss-up as to who wins the BYU-TCU game, but the winner of that game will be the conference champion (either outright or by virtue of a tie with the loser of the game). Based on how TCU demoralized, dominated, decimated, pick your 'd' word, BYU last year, you have to think that TCU has the edge RIGHT NOW, but a lot can happen in the next 2 months. I don't believe the conference champion will go undefeated in conference play, but I do believe they will only have 1 loss. TCU is just a good football team. Fast, hard-hitting defense. Brilliant return game. Solid kicker and punter. Multi-year (and mobile) starter at QB surrounded by fast WRs and RBs with an O-line that, while undersized, has been pretty steady over the years. They have two early road games against ACC opponents: Virginia and Clemson. They get Utah at home. They shouldn't be any worse than 10-2 this season (maybe 9-3), and I think 11-1 gives them a realistic shot at a BCS game.
2: BYU. They have won 18 straight home games. I think with Florida State, Colorado State, Utah State, TCU, Air Force, and Utah at home this season, their streak probably ends (I believe all 6 of those teams will go to bowl games, but it may only be 5). If they manage to go 6-0 at home this year, though, you are looking at a conference champion and a BCS bowl-bound team. Last year they had two main problems down the stretch: tunnel vision by QB Max Hall and no leadership (or pass rush, or coverage for that matter) on defense. This year, there is no Austin Collie to stare down and throw to every time in crucial situations, so he'll likely be forced to spread it around, like he did the first half of last season. Though, McKay Virgil Jacobson could emerge as a Collie-like player. He is faster than Collie but also smaller. I see the defense having a lot more leadership, particularly at LB. Clawson is a year older, Hooks is healthy, Baumann and Doman have another year under their belts. At free safety, Scott Johnson is miles ahead of what Kellen Fowler was last year in terms of leadership. They have also changed a couple of guys' positions, which will help the D a lot: Johnson from CB where he was too slow to FS, So'oto from OLB to DE where he'll have opportunities to get to opposing QBs more, Pendleton from safety to OLB. This season the D has more leaders, more speed, harder hitters, more toughness, a better pass rush, etc. This looks more like a Bronco Mendenhall defense than last year, but, hey, when you don't have the personnel, you don't have the personnel. The non-conference schedule is a lot tougher, but their toughest conference games are all at home. I could see them finishing as bad as 9-3 or 8-4, but at 11-1 I believe they would be BCS-bound over Boise State and 12-0 would put them in the National Championship discussion.
3: Air Force. The "obvious" pick here is Utah, but the Falcons have shown more consistency than Utah over the past 4 years. They have certainly been the model of consistency the past two with Troy Calhoun at the helm. His option offense has some spread wrinkles no other option offense in history has had. He also knows how to utilize his talent. He has the right players at the right places. They are smart, disciplined, and most teams struggle in preparation for them. I believe they continue to surprise this season, even though they lost some key personnel from their defense. I'm not sure if they can beat Utah in Salt Lake, but I do believe they beat them in the standings. I think around 8 wins for the Falcons
4: Utah. I truly believe this might be giving Utah a break. The schedule is tough: they visit CSU, UNLV, TCU, and BYU. The only tough conference game they get at home is Air Force, who beat Utah at Utah the last time they went there. Also remember that Utah won 5 games by 7 points or fewer last year and there are 3 MAJOR differences from last year's team. 1) They lost 8-9 starters on offense (depending on who you count as starters), including a 5th-year senior QB who started for 3 seasons. 2) They lost King Louis, the best kicker/punter in the country. 3) They lost 3 defensive players to the NFL and 1 3-year starter DB to graduation.
1) They will be starting a true freshman at QB. Name me a true freshman QB who came in and started, leading his to a conference title in year one? McCoy didn't win a conference title. Tebow didn't even start as a frosh, though he played significant minutes. And Jordan Wynn is no McCoy or Tebow. They also lost a solid back in Mack, though Asiata, who split duties with him is back. There is no solid back-up to Asiata. The WRs got decimated by graduation, as did the OL. This isn't Oklahoma where last year's backups could be this year's All-Americans.
2) Sakoda kept Utah in games with his ability to flip field position and nail field goals with uncanny accuracy. Field position and an automatic 3 points was definitely the difference in two 13-10 conference victories and the 31-28 win over Oregon State. There just aren't very many Louie Sakoda's out there.
3) Some teams can lose 3 NFL-caliber defensive players and not miss a beat. Non-BCS teams, including two-time BCS buster Utah, do not fall into that club: they don't have the depth. While the defense will be good this season, that is a lot to lose. The D would have to be spectacular to make up for the losses on O and special teams. Also of note here, the man they are counting on to shore up the D-Line (Koa Misi) got injured yesterday and the extent of his injury is unknown (update: he is out indefinitely, and the type of injury cannot be discussed, which is usually not a good sign). If they lose him for any significant amount of time, their D-line will be hurting, despite how deep Coach Whit says they are. That puts them down to 2 defensive players that made the preseason all-conference team. Again, that's a sign of a solid but not spectacular defense. I'll give them 8 wins but 7 isn't unlikely (and even 6 is possible if Utah State successfully stops the run game).
5: New Mexico. I think they will be the surprise of the conference this season. They had a down year last season due to injuries. New Mexico always has toughness on D and playmakers on O, their biggest problem is a lack of size on the O and D lines, which impacts them in the non-conference against BCS teams and in conference against Utah and BYU with their mammoth lines (it also wears them down, leaving them open to a late-season slide). I think Coach Locksley brings a new enthusiasm and excitement to the Lobos that former head coach (and current SDSU defensive coordinator) Rocky Long may have lost last season. I don't think they are as talented as they were two years ago on their way to 9 wins, but they can make up for that with energy and toughness. I expect them to lose to all of the teams ahead of them in the standings and beat all those below them for a 4-4 record in conference, that would put them at 5-6 total wins on the season.
6: Colorado State. There are some questions with the QB situation, certainly. But Coach Fairchild is a QB coach by trade and he'll get things settled there. The O-Line is experienced and the running game can carry the load for a while. CSU always seem to have one future NFL WR on the roster too. The D also returns a few playmakers. They are a solid team. If they can upset CU in the season-opener, that would do a lot for confidence and probably move them up into the top half of the conference. The fact that I have them at 6 means I don't think they'll pull off the upset. I'll say they still get 6 wins though.
7: UNLV. I think they will have a strong start to the season but will fade down the stretch. Sanford hasn't figured out how to keep the guys primed for conference play in October and November. They might get to 6 wins this year, but it will be a stretch. They should be good, returning several key offensive players, but I just can't see them getting over the hump: I'll believe it when I see it. If Omar Clayton realizes the potential he showed at QB last season, this could be a "special" year for the Rebels, 8 wins and a top 4 finish in the conference. My gut just tells me he'll get hurt early in the year trying to make too many plays with his feet and the Rebels may not recover. 5 wins again.
8: Wyoming. They have a solid defense. They have a great offensive mind at the head coaching spot. If they can pull it all together, they can surprise. I am just not sure the offense can pull it together right now. The QBs actually regressed during last season. Maybe a new up-tempo, no-huddle offense can right the ship, but I'm going to give them a year to get things straightened out. Look for them to be very competitive next season, once the O catches up to the D. 4-5 wins.
9: San Diego State. Another team that has the potential to have a decent showing in the conference this season, but probably won't. They have a lot of speed, some very good coaches, and beautiful weather down there in SoCal. I think the MWC will look more balanced this year than usual, there are some wins available for the teams at the bottom. Unless teams like SDSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming can play respectable in the non-conference though, it won't matter how balanced it looks to a Mountain West Conference fan. I think the Aztecs could get 4 wins this year, but 3 isn't out of the question. I'm sure they can't wait for basketball season down there...
Potential Sleepers: New Mexico, Colorado State (not much being said about these two, who may have something to say about the conference title when all is said and done: not by winning it but by knocking off contenders/pretenders).
Over-hyped by the Media: Utah, UNLV (they are very high on these two, I'm not: then again, they get paid to give their opinions...).
Team I'm most likely wrong about: New Mexico (they could finish 9th just as easily).
Team I know I'm right about: BYU (they will finish in the top 2, barring injury to Max Hall, of course).
Coach most likely gone at the end of the season: Sanford at UNLV, especially if he finishes where I predicted (7th).
Coach most likely to get a raise at the end of the season: Patterson at TCU, especially if they go BCS bowling. What he has done in his decade at TCU is outstanding, as he has won conference titles in 3 different conferences and won 10 games half a dozen times. His teams have not performed well in the spotlight though, something he'll need to remedy this year since they are the favorite to win the MWC (I'm not the only person saying that).
Person most likely to hate my prediction: James Thomas, Utah alum, but great guy and I overlook that major flaw and love him anyway.
Person most likely to enjoy my prediction: my dad, who is a BYU fan but eternal pessimist, will like seeing such a credible person peg BYU for number two in the MWC.
1: TCU. To me, it's really a toss-up as to who wins the BYU-TCU game, but the winner of that game will be the conference champion (either outright or by virtue of a tie with the loser of the game). Based on how TCU demoralized, dominated, decimated, pick your 'd' word, BYU last year, you have to think that TCU has the edge RIGHT NOW, but a lot can happen in the next 2 months. I don't believe the conference champion will go undefeated in conference play, but I do believe they will only have 1 loss. TCU is just a good football team. Fast, hard-hitting defense. Brilliant return game. Solid kicker and punter. Multi-year (and mobile) starter at QB surrounded by fast WRs and RBs with an O-line that, while undersized, has been pretty steady over the years. They have two early road games against ACC opponents: Virginia and Clemson. They get Utah at home. They shouldn't be any worse than 10-2 this season (maybe 9-3), and I think 11-1 gives them a realistic shot at a BCS game.
2: BYU. They have won 18 straight home games. I think with Florida State, Colorado State, Utah State, TCU, Air Force, and Utah at home this season, their streak probably ends (I believe all 6 of those teams will go to bowl games, but it may only be 5). If they manage to go 6-0 at home this year, though, you are looking at a conference champion and a BCS bowl-bound team. Last year they had two main problems down the stretch: tunnel vision by QB Max Hall and no leadership (or pass rush, or coverage for that matter) on defense. This year, there is no Austin Collie to stare down and throw to every time in crucial situations, so he'll likely be forced to spread it around, like he did the first half of last season. Though, McKay Virgil Jacobson could emerge as a Collie-like player. He is faster than Collie but also smaller. I see the defense having a lot more leadership, particularly at LB. Clawson is a year older, Hooks is healthy, Baumann and Doman have another year under their belts. At free safety, Scott Johnson is miles ahead of what Kellen Fowler was last year in terms of leadership. They have also changed a couple of guys' positions, which will help the D a lot: Johnson from CB where he was too slow to FS, So'oto from OLB to DE where he'll have opportunities to get to opposing QBs more, Pendleton from safety to OLB. This season the D has more leaders, more speed, harder hitters, more toughness, a better pass rush, etc. This looks more like a Bronco Mendenhall defense than last year, but, hey, when you don't have the personnel, you don't have the personnel. The non-conference schedule is a lot tougher, but their toughest conference games are all at home. I could see them finishing as bad as 9-3 or 8-4, but at 11-1 I believe they would be BCS-bound over Boise State and 12-0 would put them in the National Championship discussion.
3: Air Force. The "obvious" pick here is Utah, but the Falcons have shown more consistency than Utah over the past 4 years. They have certainly been the model of consistency the past two with Troy Calhoun at the helm. His option offense has some spread wrinkles no other option offense in history has had. He also knows how to utilize his talent. He has the right players at the right places. They are smart, disciplined, and most teams struggle in preparation for them. I believe they continue to surprise this season, even though they lost some key personnel from their defense. I'm not sure if they can beat Utah in Salt Lake, but I do believe they beat them in the standings. I think around 8 wins for the Falcons
4: Utah. I truly believe this might be giving Utah a break. The schedule is tough: they visit CSU, UNLV, TCU, and BYU. The only tough conference game they get at home is Air Force, who beat Utah at Utah the last time they went there. Also remember that Utah won 5 games by 7 points or fewer last year and there are 3 MAJOR differences from last year's team. 1) They lost 8-9 starters on offense (depending on who you count as starters), including a 5th-year senior QB who started for 3 seasons. 2) They lost King Louis, the best kicker/punter in the country. 3) They lost 3 defensive players to the NFL and 1 3-year starter DB to graduation.
1) They will be starting a true freshman at QB. Name me a true freshman QB who came in and started, leading his to a conference title in year one? McCoy didn't win a conference title. Tebow didn't even start as a frosh, though he played significant minutes. And Jordan Wynn is no McCoy or Tebow. They also lost a solid back in Mack, though Asiata, who split duties with him is back. There is no solid back-up to Asiata. The WRs got decimated by graduation, as did the OL. This isn't Oklahoma where last year's backups could be this year's All-Americans.
2) Sakoda kept Utah in games with his ability to flip field position and nail field goals with uncanny accuracy. Field position and an automatic 3 points was definitely the difference in two 13-10 conference victories and the 31-28 win over Oregon State. There just aren't very many Louie Sakoda's out there.
3) Some teams can lose 3 NFL-caliber defensive players and not miss a beat. Non-BCS teams, including two-time BCS buster Utah, do not fall into that club: they don't have the depth. While the defense will be good this season, that is a lot to lose. The D would have to be spectacular to make up for the losses on O and special teams. Also of note here, the man they are counting on to shore up the D-Line (Koa Misi) got injured yesterday and the extent of his injury is unknown (update: he is out indefinitely, and the type of injury cannot be discussed, which is usually not a good sign). If they lose him for any significant amount of time, their D-line will be hurting, despite how deep Coach Whit says they are. That puts them down to 2 defensive players that made the preseason all-conference team. Again, that's a sign of a solid but not spectacular defense. I'll give them 8 wins but 7 isn't unlikely (and even 6 is possible if Utah State successfully stops the run game).
5: New Mexico. I think they will be the surprise of the conference this season. They had a down year last season due to injuries. New Mexico always has toughness on D and playmakers on O, their biggest problem is a lack of size on the O and D lines, which impacts them in the non-conference against BCS teams and in conference against Utah and BYU with their mammoth lines (it also wears them down, leaving them open to a late-season slide). I think Coach Locksley brings a new enthusiasm and excitement to the Lobos that former head coach (and current SDSU defensive coordinator) Rocky Long may have lost last season. I don't think they are as talented as they were two years ago on their way to 9 wins, but they can make up for that with energy and toughness. I expect them to lose to all of the teams ahead of them in the standings and beat all those below them for a 4-4 record in conference, that would put them at 5-6 total wins on the season.
6: Colorado State. There are some questions with the QB situation, certainly. But Coach Fairchild is a QB coach by trade and he'll get things settled there. The O-Line is experienced and the running game can carry the load for a while. CSU always seem to have one future NFL WR on the roster too. The D also returns a few playmakers. They are a solid team. If they can upset CU in the season-opener, that would do a lot for confidence and probably move them up into the top half of the conference. The fact that I have them at 6 means I don't think they'll pull off the upset. I'll say they still get 6 wins though.
7: UNLV. I think they will have a strong start to the season but will fade down the stretch. Sanford hasn't figured out how to keep the guys primed for conference play in October and November. They might get to 6 wins this year, but it will be a stretch. They should be good, returning several key offensive players, but I just can't see them getting over the hump: I'll believe it when I see it. If Omar Clayton realizes the potential he showed at QB last season, this could be a "special" year for the Rebels, 8 wins and a top 4 finish in the conference. My gut just tells me he'll get hurt early in the year trying to make too many plays with his feet and the Rebels may not recover. 5 wins again.
8: Wyoming. They have a solid defense. They have a great offensive mind at the head coaching spot. If they can pull it all together, they can surprise. I am just not sure the offense can pull it together right now. The QBs actually regressed during last season. Maybe a new up-tempo, no-huddle offense can right the ship, but I'm going to give them a year to get things straightened out. Look for them to be very competitive next season, once the O catches up to the D. 4-5 wins.
9: San Diego State. Another team that has the potential to have a decent showing in the conference this season, but probably won't. They have a lot of speed, some very good coaches, and beautiful weather down there in SoCal. I think the MWC will look more balanced this year than usual, there are some wins available for the teams at the bottom. Unless teams like SDSU, New Mexico, and Wyoming can play respectable in the non-conference though, it won't matter how balanced it looks to a Mountain West Conference fan. I think the Aztecs could get 4 wins this year, but 3 isn't out of the question. I'm sure they can't wait for basketball season down there...
Potential Sleepers: New Mexico, Colorado State (not much being said about these two, who may have something to say about the conference title when all is said and done: not by winning it but by knocking off contenders/pretenders).
Over-hyped by the Media: Utah, UNLV (they are very high on these two, I'm not: then again, they get paid to give their opinions...).
Team I'm most likely wrong about: New Mexico (they could finish 9th just as easily).
Team I know I'm right about: BYU (they will finish in the top 2, barring injury to Max Hall, of course).
Coach most likely gone at the end of the season: Sanford at UNLV, especially if he finishes where I predicted (7th).
Coach most likely to get a raise at the end of the season: Patterson at TCU, especially if they go BCS bowling. What he has done in his decade at TCU is outstanding, as he has won conference titles in 3 different conferences and won 10 games half a dozen times. His teams have not performed well in the spotlight though, something he'll need to remedy this year since they are the favorite to win the MWC (I'm not the only person saying that).
Person most likely to hate my prediction: James Thomas, Utah alum, but great guy and I overlook that major flaw and love him anyway.
Person most likely to enjoy my prediction: my dad, who is a BYU fan but eternal pessimist, will like seeing such a credible person peg BYU for number two in the MWC.
Wednesday, August 19, 2009
65 predictions, #15 Big 12 North
Comparing the Big 12 North to the MWC (to defend why I put them here, before I predict the MWC):
The top third (I'm going NU/KU, based on current statuses of the programs): edge goes to MWC. TCU played OU tougher than both Big 12 schools did last year. Utah dominated top 10 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year, KU and NU were a combined 0-6 against top 10 teams, none of them close games. While BYU didn't do a whole lot of note last season (besides win 10 games for the third straight year), they have had several big wins over the past few seasons. I'd love to see some head-to-head matchups but the Big 12 North and MWC rarely play each other for some reason (except CU-CSU). Nebraska is better than it has been, but not the team it was in the 90's. KU is better right now than it has ever been as a program, but so are BYU, TCU, and Utah.
The middle third (Mizzou and CU): edge to the Big 12 North. Not much of a contest here. Air Force is solid, but continually chokes in the 4th quarter against high-quality competition. CSU is on the rise, but they'll still lose to CU this year. UNLV seems to have gotten out of its post-John Robinson funk where 10 losses a year was a possibility, but they are still no Missouri. The MWC teams have some impressive wins recently, but also some head-scratchers. CU is moving slowly upward under Dan Hawkins and Missouri has had recent success, but is a major question mark this year.
The bottom third (K-State and Iowa State): I gotta go MWC here. You are looking at Wyoming, a team that has recently won at Tennessee and against Virginia, New Mexico who beat Arizona (a bowl team) twice in the non-conference including once on the road, and San Diego State who sucks. K-State has been pretty good the past two years, but really that is beating up on teams the calibre of San Diego State. The win at Texas two years ago WAS impressive. Then you have Iowa State that sucks. They have exactly 4 wins against I-A competition in the last 2 years (all at home, and only 1 against a team with a winning record) AND a loss to a I-AA team. The two Big 12 teams combine for 4 wins over BCS opponents the past two seasons, the same total as the 3 MWC schools, though the MWC schools have done so in fewer opportunities and less money.
Projected order of finish:
1: Nebraska (I think they'll finish with at least 3 Big 12 losses though, possibly even spear-heading a 3 or 4-way tie at the top with 4 losses...)
2: Colorado (they certainly have the most favorable schedule of Big 12 North teams, so I expect them to finish higher than they otherwise would based solely on talent)
3: Kansas (even if they can find a way to win at Tech, they still have OU, at Texas, at Colorado, at K-State, and neutral site against Mizzou. They are not a 4 or 5-loss team, but a lot of teams would lose 6 or more in-conference with this schedule-including EVERY Big East team)
4: Missouri (Tiger fans shouldn't be disappointed at 4th this season, but they will be. They lost a lot talent and some good coaching too. Everyone has to be rebuild at some point, and you weren't that spectacular to begin with)
5: Iowa State (Saturday, October 3rd they beat K-State at home to settle the tie for last)
6: Kansas State (Bill Snyder brought K-State back from the dead in his first stint. I think he's going to send them back this time around. Letting Coach Prince go was a MISTAKE!)
I think the Big 12 North this season highlights the reason why 12-team conferences should be avoided: the best teams don't always finish at the top, because not everybody plays everybody. KU has to play at Texas, at Texas Tech, and against Oklahoma. Colorado has to play at Texas, at OK State, and against A&M. Nebraska gets Tech and Oklahoma at home and travels to Baylor. Not all schedules are created equal in a 12-team conference.
The top third (I'm going NU/KU, based on current statuses of the programs): edge goes to MWC. TCU played OU tougher than both Big 12 schools did last year. Utah dominated top 10 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl last year, KU and NU were a combined 0-6 against top 10 teams, none of them close games. While BYU didn't do a whole lot of note last season (besides win 10 games for the third straight year), they have had several big wins over the past few seasons. I'd love to see some head-to-head matchups but the Big 12 North and MWC rarely play each other for some reason (except CU-CSU). Nebraska is better than it has been, but not the team it was in the 90's. KU is better right now than it has ever been as a program, but so are BYU, TCU, and Utah.
The middle third (Mizzou and CU): edge to the Big 12 North. Not much of a contest here. Air Force is solid, but continually chokes in the 4th quarter against high-quality competition. CSU is on the rise, but they'll still lose to CU this year. UNLV seems to have gotten out of its post-John Robinson funk where 10 losses a year was a possibility, but they are still no Missouri. The MWC teams have some impressive wins recently, but also some head-scratchers. CU is moving slowly upward under Dan Hawkins and Missouri has had recent success, but is a major question mark this year.
The bottom third (K-State and Iowa State): I gotta go MWC here. You are looking at Wyoming, a team that has recently won at Tennessee and against Virginia, New Mexico who beat Arizona (a bowl team) twice in the non-conference including once on the road, and San Diego State who sucks. K-State has been pretty good the past two years, but really that is beating up on teams the calibre of San Diego State. The win at Texas two years ago WAS impressive. Then you have Iowa State that sucks. They have exactly 4 wins against I-A competition in the last 2 years (all at home, and only 1 against a team with a winning record) AND a loss to a I-AA team. The two Big 12 teams combine for 4 wins over BCS opponents the past two seasons, the same total as the 3 MWC schools, though the MWC schools have done so in fewer opportunities and less money.
Projected order of finish:
1: Nebraska (I think they'll finish with at least 3 Big 12 losses though, possibly even spear-heading a 3 or 4-way tie at the top with 4 losses...)
2: Colorado (they certainly have the most favorable schedule of Big 12 North teams, so I expect them to finish higher than they otherwise would based solely on talent)
3: Kansas (even if they can find a way to win at Tech, they still have OU, at Texas, at Colorado, at K-State, and neutral site against Mizzou. They are not a 4 or 5-loss team, but a lot of teams would lose 6 or more in-conference with this schedule-including EVERY Big East team)
4: Missouri (Tiger fans shouldn't be disappointed at 4th this season, but they will be. They lost a lot talent and some good coaching too. Everyone has to be rebuild at some point, and you weren't that spectacular to begin with)
5: Iowa State (Saturday, October 3rd they beat K-State at home to settle the tie for last)
6: Kansas State (Bill Snyder brought K-State back from the dead in his first stint. I think he's going to send them back this time around. Letting Coach Prince go was a MISTAKE!)
I think the Big 12 North this season highlights the reason why 12-team conferences should be avoided: the best teams don't always finish at the top, because not everybody plays everybody. KU has to play at Texas, at Texas Tech, and against Oklahoma. Colorado has to play at Texas, at OK State, and against A&M. Nebraska gets Tech and Oklahoma at home and travels to Baylor. Not all schedules are created equal in a 12-team conference.
65 predictions, #16 Big East
Sorry, I'm a day behind. The Big East comes next in our list of predictions. Why? They are the only conference or division left without ANY team sniffing the top 25 preseason, and not a whole lot of hope that more than 2 will ever be ranked at any one time.
Projected order of finish:
1: West Virginia (they are one of 3 or 4 teams that could win it, but Pitt and WVU are most likely and the Mountaineers host Pitt, so I'll give them the edge)
2: Pittsburgh (I think Wannstedt has made them back into a yearly contender in the Big East, can he turn them into one for the National Title? Not likely)
3: Cincinnati (there is a fine line between finishing 3rd and 6th: they get the weaker opponents on the road and the tough ones at home, hold serve at home and last year won't be a fluke)
4: Rutgers (I think they only finish 1 game out of first, even in the 4 spot)
5: Connecticut (I think when you get to this point in the standings you have solid football teams, but nothing spectacular: the Big East has depth but nothing spectacular)
6: South Florida (don't believe the hype: one big Thursday win on ESPN does not a program make, just ask Rutgers)
7: Louisville (where is Bobby Petrino? He had this team rolling. Krapthorpe's team is about to send him rolling to the unemployment line)
8: Syracuse (Paulus, please save us! Seriously? What happened to this once proud program? A decade plus of mediocrity...)
Projected order of finish:
1: West Virginia (they are one of 3 or 4 teams that could win it, but Pitt and WVU are most likely and the Mountaineers host Pitt, so I'll give them the edge)
2: Pittsburgh (I think Wannstedt has made them back into a yearly contender in the Big East, can he turn them into one for the National Title? Not likely)
3: Cincinnati (there is a fine line between finishing 3rd and 6th: they get the weaker opponents on the road and the tough ones at home, hold serve at home and last year won't be a fluke)
4: Rutgers (I think they only finish 1 game out of first, even in the 4 spot)
5: Connecticut (I think when you get to this point in the standings you have solid football teams, but nothing spectacular: the Big East has depth but nothing spectacular)
6: South Florida (don't believe the hype: one big Thursday win on ESPN does not a program make, just ask Rutgers)
7: Louisville (where is Bobby Petrino? He had this team rolling. Krapthorpe's team is about to send him rolling to the unemployment line)
8: Syracuse (Paulus, please save us! Seriously? What happened to this once proud program? A decade plus of mediocrity...)
Monday, August 17, 2009
65 predictions, #17 Independents
Well, this isn't an actual conference but I'll give you my order based on overall record for the Indies (if you are surprised by this, then you don't know football...or you are skeptical about ND)
1: Notre Dame (should win between 8-10 games again...finally. I think next year could be a legitimate BCS-bowl team, they will be starting a lot of seniors with a lot of experience.)
2: Navy (they lost a lot from last year's squad, but so did most other teams in the country. I think they have a good system in place to continue with 7-9 wins a year.)
3: Army (I really feel for these guys. After dominating college football for so many years, now they struggle against Sun Belt teams, all the while learning to keep us and our freedoms safe. Thanks for your service. Sorry about your football team.)
1: Notre Dame (should win between 8-10 games again...finally. I think next year could be a legitimate BCS-bowl team, they will be starting a lot of seniors with a lot of experience.)
2: Navy (they lost a lot from last year's squad, but so did most other teams in the country. I think they have a good system in place to continue with 7-9 wins a year.)
3: Army (I really feel for these guys. After dominating college football for so many years, now they struggle against Sun Belt teams, all the while learning to keep us and our freedoms safe. Thanks for your service. Sorry about your football team.)
65 predictions, #18 C-USA West
Sunday's prediction: C-USA West projected order of finish
1: Tulsa (very ambitious non-conference schedule including Boise State and Oklahoma, this is a very consistent program with an average defense and a very above-average offense, I think they can score 28 at OU...maybe)
2: Houston (the media favorite to win the West, we just haven't seen the consistency from them that we have seen at Tulsa to name them the favorite going into the season)
3: Rice (new OC, but typically a very explosive attack: I like the non-conference scheduling here too with Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, and Navy)
4: UTEP (they gave Texas a solid first quarter last season, not sure it'll happen again but they do get to host Kansas in week 2)
5: SMU (baby steps, baby steps, still a long ways to get back to the SMU of the 80's, but also no recruiting violations!)
6: Tulane (two of the three hardest games to start the season: Tulsa and BYU, at least they are both at home, they also get to go to LSU later in the season, yeah!)
1: Tulsa (very ambitious non-conference schedule including Boise State and Oklahoma, this is a very consistent program with an average defense and a very above-average offense, I think they can score 28 at OU...maybe)
2: Houston (the media favorite to win the West, we just haven't seen the consistency from them that we have seen at Tulsa to name them the favorite going into the season)
3: Rice (new OC, but typically a very explosive attack: I like the non-conference scheduling here too with Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Vanderbilt, and Navy)
4: UTEP (they gave Texas a solid first quarter last season, not sure it'll happen again but they do get to host Kansas in week 2)
5: SMU (baby steps, baby steps, still a long ways to get back to the SMU of the 80's, but also no recruiting violations!)
6: Tulane (two of the three hardest games to start the season: Tulsa and BYU, at least they are both at home, they also get to go to LSU later in the season, yeah!)
Saturday, August 15, 2009
65 predictions, #19 WAC
The WAC comes in next in our predictions, as I believe the C-USA West is just slightly better and a LITTLE less bottom-light. I'd rather play San Jose State, New Mexico State, and Idaho than SMU and Tulane right now. I might be wrong...
Projected order of finish:
1: Boise State (I'm not sure if they survive undefeated though with trips to Fresno State, Hawaii, and even my surprise team in the WAC Utah State)
2: Fresno State (I think this might be a little high for them, particularly with the struggles they have had at home the past few seasons: I guess that anyone, anywhere, anytime attitude doesn't include home games)
3: Utah State (I thought last year they were a year away, maybe they were a year and a new coach: they will go bowling this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see them beat Utah-who just announced a true freshman as their starting QB- on opening night in 19 days)
4: Nevada (this is everybody's darling to knock off Boise State but they'll be out of the race long before they head to the blue turf in late November-game on ESPN2 the Friday after Thanksgiving which I would recommend checking out)
5: Louisiana Tech (everybody knew they would fall after a 2nd place finish last year: I'm pushing them down to 5th based on Utah State's phenomenal rise to the top half of the conference)
6: Hawaii (remember their undefeated run a few years ago? Neither can their fans. Let the free-fall continue for the Rainbow Warriors)
7: San Jose State (they've been stuck in idle since a bowl victory in 2006 and starting the season at USC, Utah, and at Stanford won't do much to inspire confidence they will turn it around this year)
8: Idaho (when you get down this low on the totem pole, it's tough to predict who will win the opening week pillow fight between NMSU and Idaho, but I'll give the edge to the Vandals for now since it's not their head coach's first game as the main man)
9: New Mexico State (I don't know that they'll go defeated in conference play, but I'd be absolutely shocked if they win more than 1)
Projected order of finish:
1: Boise State (I'm not sure if they survive undefeated though with trips to Fresno State, Hawaii, and even my surprise team in the WAC Utah State)
2: Fresno State (I think this might be a little high for them, particularly with the struggles they have had at home the past few seasons: I guess that anyone, anywhere, anytime attitude doesn't include home games)
3: Utah State (I thought last year they were a year away, maybe they were a year and a new coach: they will go bowling this year and I wouldn't be surprised to see them beat Utah-who just announced a true freshman as their starting QB- on opening night in 19 days)
4: Nevada (this is everybody's darling to knock off Boise State but they'll be out of the race long before they head to the blue turf in late November-game on ESPN2 the Friday after Thanksgiving which I would recommend checking out)
5: Louisiana Tech (everybody knew they would fall after a 2nd place finish last year: I'm pushing them down to 5th based on Utah State's phenomenal rise to the top half of the conference)
6: Hawaii (remember their undefeated run a few years ago? Neither can their fans. Let the free-fall continue for the Rainbow Warriors)
7: San Jose State (they've been stuck in idle since a bowl victory in 2006 and starting the season at USC, Utah, and at Stanford won't do much to inspire confidence they will turn it around this year)
8: Idaho (when you get down this low on the totem pole, it's tough to predict who will win the opening week pillow fight between NMSU and Idaho, but I'll give the edge to the Vandals for now since it's not their head coach's first game as the main man)
9: New Mexico State (I don't know that they'll go defeated in conference play, but I'd be absolutely shocked if they win more than 1)
65 predictions, #20 MAC West
Projected order of finish:
1: Central Michigan (I've got Chippewa LeFevour)
2: Northern Illinois (they've got a light slate against the MAC East and get most of their tough games on the turf in DeKalb)
3: Western Michigan (is it the year of Directional Michigan? Not as long as Eastern Michigan is still around)
4: Ball State (they lost a lot of Love, I Hoke they can keep the ship from sinking too fast)
5: Eastern Michigan (hey, they were last in 2008, the media picked them last again this year, so me putting them 5th means improvement, right?)
6: Toledo (at least they get to host Colorado in the non-conference schedule)
1: Central Michigan (I've got Chippewa LeFevour)
2: Northern Illinois (they've got a light slate against the MAC East and get most of their tough games on the turf in DeKalb)
3: Western Michigan (is it the year of Directional Michigan? Not as long as Eastern Michigan is still around)
4: Ball State (they lost a lot of Love, I Hoke they can keep the ship from sinking too fast)
5: Eastern Michigan (hey, they were last in 2008, the media picked them last again this year, so me putting them 5th means improvement, right?)
6: Toledo (at least they get to host Colorado in the non-conference schedule)
Thursday, August 13, 2009
65 predictions, #21 C-USA East
C-USA East is the next weakest division in college football. There are two solid programs here, but the dropoff from there is HUGE.
Projected order of finish:
1: East Carolina (tie-breaker goes their way by virtue of a head-to-head win at home the last week of the season.)
2: Southern Mississippi (not quite where they want to be as a program but headed back upwards, maybe by next year they'll be back on top.)
3: UCF (Golden Knights back to playing competitively after a hiatus last season? Well, in a division this weak, competitive is all relative.)
4: Memphis (Remember the days of the high-flying Tiger rushing attack? It really was only a few years ago. I promise.)
5: Marshall (We are! Marshall! We are! Not last!)
6: UAB (plus they lost Vaden from their basketball team: not a good year for the Green Dragons, er, Blazers, sorry.)
Projected order of finish:
1: East Carolina (tie-breaker goes their way by virtue of a head-to-head win at home the last week of the season.)
2: Southern Mississippi (not quite where they want to be as a program but headed back upwards, maybe by next year they'll be back on top.)
3: UCF (Golden Knights back to playing competitively after a hiatus last season? Well, in a division this weak, competitive is all relative.)
4: Memphis (Remember the days of the high-flying Tiger rushing attack? It really was only a few years ago. I promise.)
5: Marshall (We are! Marshall! We are! Not last!)
6: UAB (plus they lost Vaden from their basketball team: not a good year for the Green Dragons, er, Blazers, sorry.)
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
65 predictions, #22 Sun Belt
I know I gotridiculed for my lengthy (but fairly accurate) prediction about the Sun Belt last year, so I'll keep this one short and sweet.
Projected order of finish:
Troy (look for a decent performance against Florida on September 12th)
Florida Atlantic (Rusty Smith: first round draft pick?)
Middle Tennessee State (biggest riser from last season)
Arkansas State (most dominant home team in the conference-besides conference champion Troy)
Florida International (toughest non-conference schedule in the country: cha-ching! show me the payouts!)
Louisiana-Monroe (I got nothing on them: but does anyone really care?)
Louisiana-Lafayette (biggest faller from last season)
North Texas (congrats, you're not last place anymore: thanks WKU!)
Western Kentucky (welcome to I-A football, how's last place for you?)
Projected order of finish:
Troy (look for a decent performance against Florida on September 12th)
Florida Atlantic (Rusty Smith: first round draft pick?)
Middle Tennessee State (biggest riser from last season)
Arkansas State (most dominant home team in the conference-besides conference champion Troy)
Florida International (toughest non-conference schedule in the country: cha-ching! show me the payouts!)
Louisiana-Monroe (I got nothing on them: but does anyone really care?)
Louisiana-Lafayette (biggest faller from last season)
North Texas (congrats, you're not last place anymore: thanks WKU!)
Western Kentucky (welcome to I-A football, how's last place for you?)
65 predictions, #23 Mac East Division
Well I am going to start predicting division and conference champions, starting with the worst division/conference through the best. Usually the Sun Belt would be first, but the MAC East could be won by any of 3 Sun Belt teams: I view that as taking suckiness to a whole new level. Congrats MAC East, you are the worst collection of football teams out there!
Projected order of finish:
Buffalo
Temple
Bowling Green
Akron
Ohio
Kent State
Miami (OH)
Projected order of finish:
Buffalo
Temple
Bowling Green
Akron
Ohio
Kent State
Miami (OH)
Monday, August 10, 2009
A Top 40
So a lot of people watched with eager anticipation as 3 ESPN analysts did their top 40 "draft" to make a new super division of college football comprised of the most elite programs in the nation. One major flaw with their system was that it revealed some obvious biases in those drafting, and there was no contingency plan to deal with bad picks. If a guy wanted to draft somebody, nobody could stop him from doing it. Pat Forde selected a majority of his teams from the Big 12 and Pac 10. He attended a Big 12 school. Mark Schlabach picked a plethora of SEC and non-BCS teams. He's a Georgia Bulldog. Ivan Maisel was a little more balanced, but leaned slightly towards the ACC and Big 10. Haven't figured out why a Stanford guy would do that yet...but he did nonetheless.
Well, 3 of my co-workers and I got together and picked our top 40. Essentially we all came to the table with our own individual top 40. All of the teams that made everyone's top 40 were immediately added to our collective top 40. Then we looked at teams that 3 of the 4 of us picked, discussed to see if anyone changed their minds after hearing some arguments, and voted on those again. If 3 of the 4 of us still picked them, they went into the top 40. At this point we had 37 universities and 7 more that at least 2 of us had picked. We discussed and debated the merits of the teams. We eliminated 2 and had our final 5. Each of us then voted for 3 teams. After that we had 39 teams in, and 3 teams tied with votes for the final spot. We eliminated 1 of the 3 and had a final vote for the final spot. Our main criteria were as follows: overall program winning percentage, heisman trophies, conference championships, national championships, "on the rise" status, how much of a program's success rides on one coach (and if he leaves, what will happen?). Some programs have been down for a few years after a glorious past, while others have been up for a few years after an ignominious past. We tried to balance all of these and come to a consensus. Let me be clear: there was no consensus on the 40th spot: some argued Maryland, others Kansas, and the spot finally went to Iowa. We had 34 of those from the ESPN list, but came up with 6 different programs (do the math). Here is our list:
*-team that was not on ESPN's list
Pacific:
Arizona State
Boise State
BYU
California
Oregon
Stanford*
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington*
Midwest:
Arkansas
Colorado*
Iowa
LSU
Nebraska
Oklahoma
TCU*
Texas
Texas A&M
Wisconsin
Southeast:
Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Miami
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Northeast:
Boston College
Michigan
Michigan State
Navy*
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State
Pittsburgh*
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
The 6 schools that did not make our cut that were on ESPN's list were: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, South Carolina, and Texas Tech. One common thread of those 6 is that most of their program's successes have come under their current head coach. Kansas hasn't won a conference championship in 40 years. Mizzou hasn't done much of anything until Pinkel arrived. OK State had a couple of decent RBs in the 80's in Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders, but besides that it's all been Mr. I'm 40. Oregon State hadn't done a thing until Riley and the Rogers brothers showed up. South Carolina did have Holtz before the Old Ball Coach, but even they haven't sniffed an SEC Title under either of them. What happens to Tech when Leach leaves? Has he built a program or has he built a system that will die when the head gets chopped off? 3 years ago this would have been a different list. 3 years from now it would also probably look different. This will never happen, but it's fun to try it out.
I personally believe the best solution would be to cut I-A to 80 teams, take the bottom 40 from I-A and the top 40 from I-AA and make a new I-AA, and the rest of teams in I-AA become I-AAA. Divide them all into 8 conferences. The top 2 from each conference go to a 16-team playoff. The bottom 2 in each conference drop down a division and are replaced with the 16 playoff teams from the division below. That way, mediocrity is not tolerated. 2-10 Iowa State does not get more money each year than two-time BCS Buster Utah, just because they have some powerful buddies. I have tried to come up with my top 80, but then I do stupid things like buy a foreclosure and have to put all of my spare time into fixing it up...thus, you are all left hanging by a thread, awaiting my perfect solution!
Well, 3 of my co-workers and I got together and picked our top 40. Essentially we all came to the table with our own individual top 40. All of the teams that made everyone's top 40 were immediately added to our collective top 40. Then we looked at teams that 3 of the 4 of us picked, discussed to see if anyone changed their minds after hearing some arguments, and voted on those again. If 3 of the 4 of us still picked them, they went into the top 40. At this point we had 37 universities and 7 more that at least 2 of us had picked. We discussed and debated the merits of the teams. We eliminated 2 and had our final 5. Each of us then voted for 3 teams. After that we had 39 teams in, and 3 teams tied with votes for the final spot. We eliminated 1 of the 3 and had a final vote for the final spot. Our main criteria were as follows: overall program winning percentage, heisman trophies, conference championships, national championships, "on the rise" status, how much of a program's success rides on one coach (and if he leaves, what will happen?). Some programs have been down for a few years after a glorious past, while others have been up for a few years after an ignominious past. We tried to balance all of these and come to a consensus. Let me be clear: there was no consensus on the 40th spot: some argued Maryland, others Kansas, and the spot finally went to Iowa. We had 34 of those from the ESPN list, but came up with 6 different programs (do the math). Here is our list:
*-team that was not on ESPN's list
Pacific:
Arizona State
Boise State
BYU
California
Oregon
Stanford*
UCLA
USC
Utah
Washington*
Midwest:
Arkansas
Colorado*
Iowa
LSU
Nebraska
Oklahoma
TCU*
Texas
Texas A&M
Wisconsin
Southeast:
Alabama
Auburn
Clemson
Florida
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Tech
Miami
Ole Miss
Tennessee
Northeast:
Boston College
Michigan
Michigan State
Navy*
Notre Dame
Ohio State
Penn State
Pittsburgh*
Virginia Tech
West Virginia
The 6 schools that did not make our cut that were on ESPN's list were: Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Oregon State, South Carolina, and Texas Tech. One common thread of those 6 is that most of their program's successes have come under their current head coach. Kansas hasn't won a conference championship in 40 years. Mizzou hasn't done much of anything until Pinkel arrived. OK State had a couple of decent RBs in the 80's in Thurman Thomas and Barry Sanders, but besides that it's all been Mr. I'm 40. Oregon State hadn't done a thing until Riley and the Rogers brothers showed up. South Carolina did have Holtz before the Old Ball Coach, but even they haven't sniffed an SEC Title under either of them. What happens to Tech when Leach leaves? Has he built a program or has he built a system that will die when the head gets chopped off? 3 years ago this would have been a different list. 3 years from now it would also probably look different. This will never happen, but it's fun to try it out.
I personally believe the best solution would be to cut I-A to 80 teams, take the bottom 40 from I-A and the top 40 from I-AA and make a new I-AA, and the rest of teams in I-AA become I-AAA. Divide them all into 8 conferences. The top 2 from each conference go to a 16-team playoff. The bottom 2 in each conference drop down a division and are replaced with the 16 playoff teams from the division below. That way, mediocrity is not tolerated. 2-10 Iowa State does not get more money each year than two-time BCS Buster Utah, just because they have some powerful buddies. I have tried to come up with my top 80, but then I do stupid things like buy a foreclosure and have to put all of my spare time into fixing it up...thus, you are all left hanging by a thread, awaiting my perfect solution!
65 predictions, #26, #25, #24
Saturday's prediction.
#26: Kansas will lose at least 4 Big 12 games and will finish behind Nebraska and at least one other team (Colorado or Missouri or both). I do believe they are the 2nd best (maybe even the best) team in the North, but that Big 12 South schedule is BRUTAL. OU, at Texas, at Texas Tech on Halloween. In addition, they have two rivals to play in the North (at K-State and Missouri at a neutral site) and have to travel to Colorado. They do get Nebraska at home but that won't exactly be a cake walk either. The Iowa State game is the only Big 12 game I feel certain I can call a W right now. I do believe we will see a better record from them in the 2010 season though: exchange Baylor, A&M, and OK State for Texas, OU, and Tech. Rock chalk!
Sunday's prediction.
#25: The winner of the TCU at BYU game will win the Mountain West Conference. A lot of people have called it a 3-horse race. I've said many times this will be a rebuilding year for Utah and they have not been consistent enough over Whit's tenure to state that they can compete for a conference title in a rebuilding year (or years...). Either TCU or BYU will win the conference. Utah might have a say if it is an outright championship or not, but they won't compete for it.
Today's prediction.
#24: BYU will score at least 24 points against Oklahoma. They will also hold OU to under 45 points, a feat which only 3 teams did last season (TCU, Texas, and Florida-all teams finished in the top 10: not predicting a top 10 finish for BYU, just stating how difficult of a task they will complete). I am not predicting a win or a loss for BYU either, I am merely stating that BYU will score in at least the upper 20's and OU will score less than in the upper 40's.
#26: Kansas will lose at least 4 Big 12 games and will finish behind Nebraska and at least one other team (Colorado or Missouri or both). I do believe they are the 2nd best (maybe even the best) team in the North, but that Big 12 South schedule is BRUTAL. OU, at Texas, at Texas Tech on Halloween. In addition, they have two rivals to play in the North (at K-State and Missouri at a neutral site) and have to travel to Colorado. They do get Nebraska at home but that won't exactly be a cake walk either. The Iowa State game is the only Big 12 game I feel certain I can call a W right now. I do believe we will see a better record from them in the 2010 season though: exchange Baylor, A&M, and OK State for Texas, OU, and Tech. Rock chalk!
Sunday's prediction.
#25: The winner of the TCU at BYU game will win the Mountain West Conference. A lot of people have called it a 3-horse race. I've said many times this will be a rebuilding year for Utah and they have not been consistent enough over Whit's tenure to state that they can compete for a conference title in a rebuilding year (or years...). Either TCU or BYU will win the conference. Utah might have a say if it is an outright championship or not, but they won't compete for it.
Today's prediction.
#24: BYU will score at least 24 points against Oklahoma. They will also hold OU to under 45 points, a feat which only 3 teams did last season (TCU, Texas, and Florida-all teams finished in the top 10: not predicting a top 10 finish for BYU, just stating how difficult of a task they will complete). I am not predicting a win or a loss for BYU either, I am merely stating that BYU will score in at least the upper 20's and OU will score less than in the upper 40's.
Friday, August 7, 2009
65 predictions, #27
In honor of my attending the Cubs game tonight, I'm going to make a prediction about the college football team on the North Side, Northwestern.
#27: Northwestern will not win the Big 10. I know, I'm not breaking new ground with that statement. However, they will win 7, maybe even 8, games, finish in the top half of the league and go to a bowl game. I'm not sure you can ever REALLY compete at Northwestern with the academic restrictions there, but Pat Fitzgerald seems to do a good job maximizing his talent. His teams have struggled in October over his 3-year tenure. I think part of that is due to a light non-conference slate, then the struggle adjusting to the speed and size of their Big Ten opponents (I know that doesn't sound quite right, but Minnesota and Purde are a far cry above Towson, Eastern Michigan, Syracuse, and Miami of Ohio). They get to ease into a bit more this season, but we'll see how it works out. 7-8 wins, a bowl game, but no Rose Bowl for the Wildcats this year.
Go Cubbies!!!
#27: Northwestern will not win the Big 10. I know, I'm not breaking new ground with that statement. However, they will win 7, maybe even 8, games, finish in the top half of the league and go to a bowl game. I'm not sure you can ever REALLY compete at Northwestern with the academic restrictions there, but Pat Fitzgerald seems to do a good job maximizing his talent. His teams have struggled in October over his 3-year tenure. I think part of that is due to a light non-conference slate, then the struggle adjusting to the speed and size of their Big Ten opponents (I know that doesn't sound quite right, but Minnesota and Purde are a far cry above Towson, Eastern Michigan, Syracuse, and Miami of Ohio). They get to ease into a bit more this season, but we'll see how it works out. 7-8 wins, a bowl game, but no Rose Bowl for the Wildcats this year.
Go Cubbies!!!
USA Today Rankings Out Today
Non-BCS teams set a couple of records today with the preseason rankings that came out. In the BCS era, no more than 3 non-BCS teams have been ranked in the preseason polls. This season, they have 4 (Boise State, TCU, Utah, and BYU). In the BCS era, a maximum of 1 team has been ranked in the top 20 in the preseason. This year there are 3 (Boise State, TCU, and Utah). They still have yet to field a top 10 pre-season team. If Boise State runs the table and wins a BCS game, maybe they can do it next year.
A quick run-down of the non-BCS teams:
Boise State only has one team on their schedule that is ranked in the preseason polls: Oregon at number 14 in week 1. Only one other team on their schedule got any votes (Nevada with 11 votes).
TCU has zero non-conference games against ranked opponents, but has two in-conference ranked opponents. They get one of those games at home (Utah, 18) and one on the road (BYU, 24).
Utah has a total of 3 games against teams in the rankings, all on the road, 2 in conference (TCU, 17, and BYU, 24), and 1 out of conference (Oregon, 14, at Autzen).
BYU plays 4 teams ranked in the preseason top 25, 3 at home, and 1 at a neutral site: 2 conference games (both at home: TCU, 17, and Utah, 18) and 2 non-conference ones (Oklahoma in Dallas, 3, and Florida State, 19, at home). They also are the only one of the four non-BCS teams with a top 10 opponent.
Run-down of the top 5:
Florida plays 3 teams ranked in the preseason polls: neutral site against Georgia (13), at LSU (9), and home against Florida State (19). 2 conference games and a rivalry game.
Texas only plays 2: neutral site against Oklahoma (3) and at Oklahoma State (11). No non-conference games against ranked opponents, no Big 12 North games against ranked opponents.
Oklahoma plays 4: neutral sites against Texas (2) and BYU (24), at Nebraska (22), home against Oklahoma State (11).
USC tops the list with 5 (4 of them on the road, 2 of them non-conference games!): at Ohio State (6), at Cal (12), at Notre Dame (23), Oregon State (25) in the Coliseum, and at Oregon (14).
Alabama rounds out the poll's top 5 and has 3 opponents ranked in the preseason. All of them are top 10 teams, however, one at home (LSU, 9), one on the road (Mississippi, 10), and one neutral site (Virginia Tech, 7).
At the top of the schedule, BYU's schedule is as tough as most of the top 5, and at the bottom of the schedule it's probably tougher: no Sun Belt teams or I-AA teams. It's just that pesky middle portion of the schedule where the top 5 teams (and BCS conferences) have the edge. UNLV will never be a South Carolina, Colorado State isn't even a Maryland. Until the middle of the MWC improves, it won't matter how much the top of the MWC improves, as far as the BCS is concerned...unless it expands (i.e. adding Boise State)...
On a side note: there are ZERO Big East teams, and THREE Mountain West teams. Which one is the BCS conference again with guaranteed millions of dollars every year? There are more teams in the rankings from the state of Idaho (which everybody knows is a hotbed for football talent...) than the entire Big East.
A quick run-down of the non-BCS teams:
Boise State only has one team on their schedule that is ranked in the preseason polls: Oregon at number 14 in week 1. Only one other team on their schedule got any votes (Nevada with 11 votes).
TCU has zero non-conference games against ranked opponents, but has two in-conference ranked opponents. They get one of those games at home (Utah, 18) and one on the road (BYU, 24).
Utah has a total of 3 games against teams in the rankings, all on the road, 2 in conference (TCU, 17, and BYU, 24), and 1 out of conference (Oregon, 14, at Autzen).
BYU plays 4 teams ranked in the preseason top 25, 3 at home, and 1 at a neutral site: 2 conference games (both at home: TCU, 17, and Utah, 18) and 2 non-conference ones (Oklahoma in Dallas, 3, and Florida State, 19, at home). They also are the only one of the four non-BCS teams with a top 10 opponent.
Run-down of the top 5:
Florida plays 3 teams ranked in the preseason polls: neutral site against Georgia (13), at LSU (9), and home against Florida State (19). 2 conference games and a rivalry game.
Texas only plays 2: neutral site against Oklahoma (3) and at Oklahoma State (11). No non-conference games against ranked opponents, no Big 12 North games against ranked opponents.
Oklahoma plays 4: neutral sites against Texas (2) and BYU (24), at Nebraska (22), home against Oklahoma State (11).
USC tops the list with 5 (4 of them on the road, 2 of them non-conference games!): at Ohio State (6), at Cal (12), at Notre Dame (23), Oregon State (25) in the Coliseum, and at Oregon (14).
Alabama rounds out the poll's top 5 and has 3 opponents ranked in the preseason. All of them are top 10 teams, however, one at home (LSU, 9), one on the road (Mississippi, 10), and one neutral site (Virginia Tech, 7).
At the top of the schedule, BYU's schedule is as tough as most of the top 5, and at the bottom of the schedule it's probably tougher: no Sun Belt teams or I-AA teams. It's just that pesky middle portion of the schedule where the top 5 teams (and BCS conferences) have the edge. UNLV will never be a South Carolina, Colorado State isn't even a Maryland. Until the middle of the MWC improves, it won't matter how much the top of the MWC improves, as far as the BCS is concerned...unless it expands (i.e. adding Boise State)...
On a side note: there are ZERO Big East teams, and THREE Mountain West teams. Which one is the BCS conference again with guaranteed millions of dollars every year? There are more teams in the rankings from the state of Idaho (which everybody knows is a hotbed for football talent...) than the entire Big East.
Thursday, August 6, 2009
65 predictions, #28
Well, I finally bought a home today. So let's talk home records.
#28: The Mountain West will have a better non-conference home record than the Big East, despite having a slightly more difficult home schedule. I already ran down the numbers for the Big East in a previous post, so here is the MWC's non-conference home schedule:
31.6% of non-conference home games are against I-AA opponents.
47.4% are against non-BCS teams (56% of these games are rivalry games), 33% of which went to bowl games last season.
3 of their 4 BCS opponents at home have played in at least one BCS game; two of those have played in a BCS National Championship Game.
On another note: only 52.8% of MWC non-conference games are at home, compared to 62.5% for the Big East. May not seem like much, but it works out to about 1 extra home game per team.
I predict the MWC will win between 73-78% of their non-conference home games. The Big East will win somewhere between 71-76%. The worst thing that could happen to the Mountain West this season would be to lose. They made such a fuss about the BCS after having a stellar season as a conference, if they don't keep it up this year they'll get a lot of "we told you so's" from the BCS. Louisville-Utah is the only head-to-head matchup we have this season to compare these two conferences specifically. Go Utes???
#28: The Mountain West will have a better non-conference home record than the Big East, despite having a slightly more difficult home schedule. I already ran down the numbers for the Big East in a previous post, so here is the MWC's non-conference home schedule:
31.6% of non-conference home games are against I-AA opponents.
47.4% are against non-BCS teams (56% of these games are rivalry games), 33% of which went to bowl games last season.
3 of their 4 BCS opponents at home have played in at least one BCS game; two of those have played in a BCS National Championship Game.
On another note: only 52.8% of MWC non-conference games are at home, compared to 62.5% for the Big East. May not seem like much, but it works out to about 1 extra home game per team.
I predict the MWC will win between 73-78% of their non-conference home games. The Big East will win somewhere between 71-76%. The worst thing that could happen to the Mountain West this season would be to lose. They made such a fuss about the BCS after having a stellar season as a conference, if they don't keep it up this year they'll get a lot of "we told you so's" from the BCS. Louisville-Utah is the only head-to-head matchup we have this season to compare these two conferences specifically. Go Utes???
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
65 predictions, #29
#29: The University of Washington, who went 0-12 last season (0-4 against ranked opponents), will defeat at least one ranked opponent this season. They will play anywhere between 4-8 of them. The potential ranked opponents come in their schedule as follows:
1st game: LSU
3rd game: USC
5th game: @ Notre Dame
6th game: Arizona
7th game: @ Arizona State
8th game: Oregon
10th game: @ Oregon State
12th game: California
5 of those games are at home, and only one of them is against a legitimate top 5 team (USC), i.e. an unwinnable game. Mush Huskies.
1st game: LSU
3rd game: USC
5th game: @ Notre Dame
6th game: Arizona
7th game: @ Arizona State
8th game: Oregon
10th game: @ Oregon State
12th game: California
5 of those games are at home, and only one of them is against a legitimate top 5 team (USC), i.e. an unwinnable game. Mush Huskies.
Monday, August 3, 2009
65 predictions, #33, 32, 31 & 30
Saturday's prediction.
#33: Illinois beats Missouri. Finally. After 4 consecutive defeats. The last Illini win over the Tigers was in 1994, at home. This year's game is played week 1, in St. Louis.
Sunday's prediction.
#32: Someone will lose to a I-AA team again this season. App State shocked Michigan 2 years ago and it has popped up several times since then. It also happened a few times before that. It's gonna happen, and I'm guessing we won't have to wait much longer than week 1, where several candidates exist: NDSU (already has 3 wins over I-A teams and 2 losses by 3 points or less!) at Iowa State, Northern Iowa at Iowa, App State at ECU, Citadel at UNC, Richmond at Duke, Southern at La-Lafayette, MVSU at Arkansas State, SFA at SMU. I'm not saying all of those will happen, but I wouldn't be shocked to see at least 1 from that group!
Monday's prediction.
#31: Jerry Hughes will not win MWC Defensive Player of the Year. He is going to start seeing some double and triple teams. QBs, O-Linemen, and coaches will study his tendencies and gameplan around him. The player of the year is usually the player with the best stats, and because teams will gameplan with avoiding him in mind, he will not win the award. A defensive player for TCU may still win the award, but it will not be reigning POY and pre-season favorite Jerry Hughes.
Today's prediction.
#30: Utah's defense will give up 20 points a game this season after giving up only 17.23 last season, 16.85 in 2007, and 19.85 in 2006. A lot of reasons to this:
The schedule is tougher this year. They don't have King Louie this year, i.e. the D won't have teams pinned inside the 20 at the start of each possession. The O will turn the ball over more. The O won't move the ball as much when they don't turn it over. Field position is crucial and they won't have it as good this season. Gary Andersen, the D-Coordinator for each of those consecutive sub-20 seasons, is gone. Add all of that together, and the D would have to be absolutely spectacular to stay under 20 points per game this season. It will still be a really good D, but you can't consistently be put in bad situations and succeed, especially after losing several NFL-calibre players.
#33: Illinois beats Missouri. Finally. After 4 consecutive defeats. The last Illini win over the Tigers was in 1994, at home. This year's game is played week 1, in St. Louis.
Sunday's prediction.
#32: Someone will lose to a I-AA team again this season. App State shocked Michigan 2 years ago and it has popped up several times since then. It also happened a few times before that. It's gonna happen, and I'm guessing we won't have to wait much longer than week 1, where several candidates exist: NDSU (already has 3 wins over I-A teams and 2 losses by 3 points or less!) at Iowa State, Northern Iowa at Iowa, App State at ECU, Citadel at UNC, Richmond at Duke, Southern at La-Lafayette, MVSU at Arkansas State, SFA at SMU. I'm not saying all of those will happen, but I wouldn't be shocked to see at least 1 from that group!
Monday's prediction.
#31: Jerry Hughes will not win MWC Defensive Player of the Year. He is going to start seeing some double and triple teams. QBs, O-Linemen, and coaches will study his tendencies and gameplan around him. The player of the year is usually the player with the best stats, and because teams will gameplan with avoiding him in mind, he will not win the award. A defensive player for TCU may still win the award, but it will not be reigning POY and pre-season favorite Jerry Hughes.
Today's prediction.
#30: Utah's defense will give up 20 points a game this season after giving up only 17.23 last season, 16.85 in 2007, and 19.85 in 2006. A lot of reasons to this:
The schedule is tougher this year. They don't have King Louie this year, i.e. the D won't have teams pinned inside the 20 at the start of each possession. The O will turn the ball over more. The O won't move the ball as much when they don't turn it over. Field position is crucial and they won't have it as good this season. Gary Andersen, the D-Coordinator for each of those consecutive sub-20 seasons, is gone. Add all of that together, and the D would have to be absolutely spectacular to stay under 20 points per game this season. It will still be a really good D, but you can't consistently be put in bad situations and succeed, especially after losing several NFL-calibre players.
Saturday, August 1, 2009
65 predictions, #34
Friday's prediction.
#34: Texas A&M goes back to a bowl game this season. Favorable schedule, solid O Line, returning QB. They could probably get as many as 8 wins, but I think they probably only get to 7. Their first test will be a neutral site against Arkansas. That game will tell us a lot about them.
#34: Texas A&M goes back to a bowl game this season. Favorable schedule, solid O Line, returning QB. They could probably get as many as 8 wins, but I think they probably only get to 7. Their first test will be a neutral site against Arkansas. That game will tell us a lot about them.
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