Competitive, but not close. That sums up the performance by BYU against Washington in the Fight Hunger Bowl. That also pretty much sums up BYU's season.
A truly good team would have beat Virginia and Utah. A team with any play makers on O probably beats Washington as well. I think BYU got outcoached and outplayed on several occasions this season, where a great team, or a team with a few more play makers, probably overcomes a lot of that.
The O didn't perform against Virginia, Utah, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, or Washington and it cost BYU an opportunity to win those games. How much blame goes to Anae? How much goes to Hill? How much goes to the OL? There's plenty to go around. The O was brand new, it was fast-paced, and there were some critical injuries on the OL. How much of that will change next season?
The D performed well enough, for the most part, for BYU to win games. It still lacks an ability to make plays in critical situations. In 3rd and medium, its DBs continue to give large cushions leading to easy 3rd downs. Where BYU needs a 3 and out, the D can't get it done. When a turnover would help, BYU is close, but no cigar. Most of BYU's best defensive players are graduating and gone.
The Special Teams was average. Justin Sorensen was probably the lone bright spot, after several years of turmoil, he had a great season kicking the ball. The punting left a lot to be desired. There were a lot of shanks. There were a lot of balls landing in the end zone without any chance of a BYU gunner downing it inside the 20. Kickoff coverage was decent most of the year, but let a few big ones go. Kickoff return was good and would have been great but for a few too many penalties.
BYU was competitive this season against a difficult schedule. But, in the end, they just weren't close enough. There were sparks of greatness and it was apparent the team had potential, but I think most BYU fans are dissatisfied with how that potential materialized.
Looking ahead to next year, they lose a lot of key pieces, including their only decent WRs/TEs, their best LBs, and Safety Daniel Sorensen. The schedule eases though and the offense has one more spring (and fall) to learn the offense. The D always seems to replenish in the front 7, so losses of Eathyn Manumaleuna, Spencer Hadley, Uani Unga, and Kyle Van Noy (plus Austen Jorgensen and Tyler Beck), while they definitely hurt, may not decimate the defense's ability to keep BYU in games. BYU's Punter will return a bit more experienced as well, in all fairness, Riley Stephenson had a rough go his first year as punter as well before an amazing senior season.
The OL and DB positions are usually the biggest question marks for the Cougars and BYU has a lot of guys there returning. By my count, 8 OL that saw significant snaps this year should be back. BYU played 9 DBs and only lose 3 of those guys. They get Jordan Johnson and Trent Trammell back from injury and add Chris Badger at the safety position (who was eligible to play this year, but joined the team so late he never really stood a chance to play under Bronco's system).
I expected BYU to get to 9 or 10 wins this year (including a game against a mid-tier Pac 12 opponent in the bowl game). They fell short, but in a much different way than I expected. Next year, based on schedule alone, I find it tough to lower my expectations from where they were this season. I have questions at WR, like big, massive questions. If I sit here a year from today and am not lauding BYU's double digit win total in 2014, then the 2013 season recap will sum up the next decade of BYU football.
Friday, December 27, 2013
UW-BYU, Fight Hunger Bowl Prediction
UW has more established and consistent playmakers. BYU has the stingier defense. BYU has a less dynamic coaching staff, but they will all be there for the bowl game.
UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill. He's played in big-time games and performed well in them. His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time. Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.
RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season. He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games. He's also averaging 12 yards/reception. He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games. But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry. In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.
4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions. They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.
In addition, they have a solid rushing attack. And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.
UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking. But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season. So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did. However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game. Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.
The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points. All three were Husky losses. In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers. In the other 9 games, they forced 19.
BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team. BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games. I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.
However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation. Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season. UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box. I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far. This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable. These are very different times in Provo. This team should have been better than it was. Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board. Usually, BYU does just the opposite.
Washington 31, BYU 27.
UW Offense
Keith Price has been much steadier and is much more experienced than Taysom Hill. He's played in big-time games and performed well in them. His duel with RGIII in the Alamo Bowl after the 2011 season was one of the great duel-threat QB tandems I've ever seen on the field at the same time. Eventually, RGIII got the best of Price, but not before Price threw for 400+ yards and ran for 3 TD.
RB Bishop Sankey has rushed for at least one TD in every game this season. He had at least one 20+ yard rush in 9 games. He's also averaging 12 yards/reception. He's capable of being a workhorse, having at least 25 carries in 8 games. But he can also run over, around, and through teams, with 6 games averaging 6+ yards/carry. In 8 games against bowl eligible opponents, he had 217 carries for 1,106 yards (5.1 yards/carry) and 13 TDs, including 125 yards and 2 TDs against Stanford, probably the best defense west of the Mississippi.
4 WRs have had 50+ yard receptions this season. TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins gets a TD every 4.7 receptions. They have big dudes and a QB that can find them.
In addition, they have a solid rushing attack. And if you stop all of that, Keith Price can tuck it and run.
UW Defense
The defense isn't quite as spectacular, statistically speaking. But I believe the Pac 12 was one of the best, if not the absolute best, offensive conferences in the country this season. So it is unsurprising that the Huskies gave up as many yards/game as they did. However, even with the yardage they gave up, they held opponents to 23.4 points/game. Their opponents mostly scored lower than their per season averages: Boise scored 31 points less than their season average, Arizona 20, Stanford 2, Oregon 2, Oregon State 8, and Washington State 14.
The 3 best duel-threat QBs they faced this season put up 45, 53, and 41 points. All three were Husky losses. In those 3 games, Washington forced only 3 turnovers. In the other 9 games, they forced 19.
BYU's Chances
I think Washington is the better team. BYU played their tougher opponents close, but generally lost those games. I put Washington more in the category of Notre Dame and Wisconsin than I do Texas, Houston, Georgia Tech, etc.
However, a big change in coaching staff can be the great equalizer in bowl preparation. Bronco traditionally has done well with bowl prep, but I think he changed things up too much this off-season. UW's advantages on the field outweigh their disadvantages in the coaching box. I think BYU fans will look back at this game as a microcosm of the season: so close, but yet so far. This team never lived up to its potential, it underachieved relative to what it was capable. These are very different times in Provo. This team should have been better than it was. Some games it was Taysom Hill, others it was the Defense, some the Special Teams didn't perform, and yet others there were poor performances across the board. Usually, BYU does just the opposite.
Washington 31, BYU 27.
Wednesday, December 4, 2013
Mo's BCS Thoughts, 12/4/2013
So I typically avoid talking about the BCS, the National Championship, etc. while there are still games to be played. It's a pointless exercise b/c 90% of the time these "controversies" resolve themselves on the field. It's very difficult to go undefeated and that bears out more often than not.
My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State. I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State. More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.
Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's. Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too. They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous. It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.
The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State. The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close. Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS! Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times. Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:
Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State. I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28. At least.
#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even. I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.
#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State. The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns. At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.
#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State. It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.
#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State. Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q. Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.
#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State. I know Florida was down, but it's Florida. And it's Buffalo. Home game vs. Road game. MAC vs. SEC. Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival. 20 vs. 30. No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.
#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. This is the exact same opponent. But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.
#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. See #7.
#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even. SDSU>Nevada but 55>35. Slight edge to Ohio State??? Maybe.
#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State. On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.
#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.
#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively. Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.
Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5. We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in. Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins! Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field. Go Sparty, go Mizzou. I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State. I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.
My point is to point out the difference between Florida State and Ohio State. I've heard a lot of people get hot about whether Auburn deserves a spot over Ohio State. More and more people are examining the arguments against Ohio State and now applying them to Florida State; mainly, their weak strength of schedule.
Ohio State's strength of schedule, I think, is slightly tougher from top to bottom than Florida State's. Auburn's was quite a bit tougher than both Ohio State and Florida, both at the top and the bottom, and in the middle too. They have by far the best win of anyone in the country, beating Bama, but that was at home, and kind of miraculous. It would have meant nothing if not for another miraculous 4th and forever Georgia DB brain farts...anyway, back to Ohio State-Florida State.
The SOS was similar, with a slight edge to Ohio State. The performance against those mostly similar schedules is not even close. Florida State won 10 games by FOUR TOUCHDOWNS! Ohio State accomplished the feat just 5 times. Here is a comparison of the wins, top-to-bottom:
Toughest
Home against Wisconsin, win by 7.
Road against Clemson, win by 37.
Edge: Florida State. I think the only way for Ohio State to "match" this win would be to beat Michigan State this weekend by 28. At least.
#2
Road against Michigan, win by 1.
Home against Miami, win by 24.
Edge: even. I think the win at Michigan is SLIGHTLY more impressive on the face of it, but the dominance of Florida State over their rival, every bit as vitriolic, was impressive.
#3
Home against Iowa, win by 10.
Road against Pitt, win by 28.
Edge: Florida State. The wins are pretty equivalent, but Florida State went on the road and won by 4 touchdowns. At home, Ohio State won by less than 4 field goals.
#4
Home against Penn State, win by 49.
Road against Boston College, win by 14.
Edge: Ohio State. It's a more impressive opponent, albeit at home as compared to on the road, but the margin of victory is a clear edge to Ohio State.
#5
Road against Northwestern, win by 10.
Home against Maryland, win by 63.
Edge: Florida State. Winning at NW is slightly more impressive again, but Ohio State eked that win out in the 4th Q. Florida State had the game wrapped up by halftime.
#6
Home against Buffalo, win by 20.
Road against Florida, win by 30.
Edge: Florida State. I know Florida was down, but it's Florida. And it's Buffalo. Home game vs. Road game. MAC vs. SEC. Ho-hum game vs. in-state rival. 20 vs. 30. No matter how you slice it, Noles emerge here.
#7
Home against Indiana, win by 28.
Home against Syracuse, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. This is the exact same opponent. But winning by 8 touchdowns>by 4.
#8
Road against Illinois, win by 25.
Road against Wake Forest, win by 56.
Edge: Florida State. See #7.
#9
Home against San Diego State, win by 35.
Home against Nevada, win by 55.
Edge: Even. SDSU>Nevada but 55>35. Slight edge to Ohio State??? Maybe.
#10
Road against Purdue, win by 56.
Home against NC State, win by 32.
Edge: Ohio State. On the road by more points, against similarly bad teams.
#11
Road against California, win by 18.
Home against Idaho, win by 66.
Edge: Ohio State.
#12:
Both at home against FCS opponents by 76 and 48, respectively. Ohio State won by more, but played a 3-9 FCS team, Florida State's opponent went 10-2 in the regular season.
Edge: even.
Florida State wins 6 to 3, if I had to assign the "evens" out, 7-5. We'll see how this weekend plays out, but if both teams win, and win handily, Florida State is in. Then it's Ohio State vs. Auburn, assuming Auburn wins! Like I said, a lot of times these things work themselves out on the field. Go Sparty, go Mizzou. I'd love to see Missouri get a crack at Florida State. I think that'd be a FUN game to watch.
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