As with QBs, BYU lucks out somewhat in the WRs it will face this season. There are no All-Americans on the schedule, at least not that will be AA in 2011. That will help ease the transition as BYU breaks in a mostly new secondary. So here we are, with my rankings of the WR/TE units that BYU will face this season:
1) Oregon State
2) TCU
3) Texas
4) Utah
5) Ole Miss
6) Hawaii
7) UCF
8) SJSU
9) Utah State
10) Idaho
11) NMSU
Oregon State returns its top 3 pass catchers, plus it is expected that former First Team Pac 10-er James Rodgers will return from injury in early October. WRs Markus Wheaton and Jordan Bishop and TE Joe Halahuni combined for 1,400 yards and 12 TDs last season as Oregon State broke in a new QB. James Rodgers averages 75 yards/game for his career. Bishop was an All-American in track last season, so he can run. This group doesn't amaze with its size or its big play potential, but as far as BYU's opponents this season, with James Rodgers, this is the best the Cougars will see. Without James Rodgers, the group slides down the list, in my mind, to the 3rd spot behind Texas.
TCU returns freshman All-American Josh Boyce, he is a game-breaker and a TD-maker. He scored a TD every 5.5 catches last season and had 4 TDs of 30 yards or more. Senior Antoine Hicks has shown flashes over his career, but has just never got over that hump. After 478 yards and 6 TDs his sophomore season, he regressed in his junior season. He still has the potential to be a solid second option. Logan Brock is a typical TCU TE, a great run-blocker who is always open on that trick play that comes when least expected. The unit is full of 3rd, 4th, and 5th year players, so I give them an edge over the younger, though perhaps more talented on paper, Texas Longhorns.
Texas has produced some phenomenal WRs over the years. They have a lot of guys who look like they could be that next one on paper (6'2" or taller, 190 or bigger, 4.6 40-time or faster), but there hasn't been a lot of production on the field to show for it. Mike Davis will probably step up as that guy as he is the top returner WR. Really, I'm rating this group on potential. A lot of these guys have game experience, but with the struggles at QB Texas had last season, they didn't produce much, which may not have been their fault entirely.
Utah has a pretty solid starting three: DeVonte Christopher, Luke Matthews, and Kendrick Moeai. All three are juniors with a lot of experience. Christopher stepped up in the Pitt game and never looked back. The three combined for over 1,100 yards last season and 10 TDs. The problem is that there isn't much experience behind them (and the guys weren't highly recruited either, for what that's worth). For a team that runs 6 or 7 WRs/TEs through the game somewhat consistently, there seems to be a big dropoff after the first three.
Ole Miss is definitely more of a running team, and their lack of depth at WR proves that. Melvin Harris and Ja-Mes Logan are big (6'6" and 6'2" respectively). They have two decent-sized TEs, but only time will tell if they ever get involved in the passing game.
Hawaii replaces 5 of the top 6 pass catchers from last season. Hawaii typically plays 7 or 8 WRs with frequency, so the backups may not have had many catches last season, but they did get game experience. 6 of the 8 on their 2-deep are over 6-feet tall. Royce Pollard is the #1 returning WR in the WAC.
UCF loses its top 3/only 3 real WRs from last season. They have 5th-year senior AJ Guyton, senior, and former QB, Rob Calabrese (only WR over 6'), and junior speedster Quincy McDuffie. Adam Nissley is a behemoth of a TE and entering his 4th year as a starter for the Knights.
SJSU, Utah State, Idaho, and New Mexico State, as at most positions, have guys out there that aren't overly big, aren't overly fast, and aren't supremely athletic. Each team has one guy that could make the All-WAC team, bot no one else to write home about among the group. San Jose State, Utah State, and Idaho go ahead of New Mexico State because they also have a potential standout TE in Ryan Otten, Kellen Bartlett, and Taylor Elmo, respectively. Names to watch are: Noel Grigsby (SJSU), Stanley Morrison (Utah State), Taveon Rogers (NMSU), and Armauni Johnson (Idaho). Utah State brings back the most experience. If they didn't, I probably would have slotted them below Idaho, in case you cared. They are all pretty mediocre groups anyway.
If Apo is as good in his redshirt freshman year as Cody Hoffman was in his freshman year, BYU has a group that could rival TCU for #2 on the list, or even a Rogers-less Oregon State for #1. Hoffman did very well down the stretch last season. McKay Jacobson has struggled the last two seasons with injuries. When he has been healthy, he's averaged over 20 yards/catch. Devin Mahina looks like he could be the next great BYU TE, but BYU fans have to be realistic that it may not come to fruition until 2012 (though perhaps it could come as early as late-October). BYU played 4 TEs last season and 3 of them are back at the position this season, so there is experience behind Mahina if my estimations of his abilities are off. Spencer Hafoka and JD Falslev give BYU some experienced depth at WR as well. As it is, I place BYU's group right about even with Texas' group at #3 at the start of the season.
Jacobson's health and Apo's "butterflies" are the wild cards that could push BYU up or down. Either way, the group should be better than Ole Miss and Utah (at least in terms of quality depth right now). It could even be better than Texas' group, though on paper that doesn't look really likely. Next up, BYU's most "interesting" position group over the years: Defensive Back.
Saturday, July 30, 2011
Thursday, July 28, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: LB
Next up, the last of the guys lining up within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage: linebackers. While BYU fans are probably quite excited about their group of LBs, BYU is going to see three of the best linebacking groups in the country lining up on the other side of the ball from them this season. Here it is, according to Mo:
1. Texas
2. TCU
3. Utah
4. Oregon State
5. Ole Miss
6. Hawaii
7. Idaho
8. Utah State
9. UCF
10. San Jose State
11. New Mexico State
It's pretty much flip a coin with Texas and TCU. I'll give Texas the benefit of the doubt because they play with three LBs to TCU's two. K, not really the reason. I'm giving Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho the leg up. Tanner Brock and Tank Carder are amazing LBs too, obviously, but maybe not quite as aggressive behind the line of scrimmage as Robinson and Acho. But, like I said, it's really a toss-up. Texas adds in Sophomore Jordan Hicks, who was a blue-chip, 5-star recruit, and the #1 LB out of HS last season, who has a year of experience under his belt now after playing significant minutes last season. He started to emerge at the end of last season.
Utah has two experienced seniors in Chaz Walker and Matt Martinez. Add in converted SS Brian Blechen and you have what I believe is one of the top 20 LB-ing groups in college football this season, yes even ahead of a lot of the SEC programs. They combined for 271 tackles, 5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, and 7 INTs last season. And Blechen did his damage 10 yards off the line of scrimmage. Imagine what he can do with that distance cut in half!
Speaking of SEC programs that Utah exceeds, Ole Miss is at 5, with Oregon State at 4. Ole Miss has a bit more size and athleticism. Oregon State has a lot more experience. Neither schools have a whole lot of depth, especially with Ole Miss losing their best LB (DT Shackelford) to an ACL injury in the spring. True freshman CJ Johnson could be a good one for Ole Miss, BYU will find out very early how active of a middle LB he is. But in the end, I'll take the team with the 20-22 year olds, over the one with the 18-19 year olds. Oregon State 2-deep goes one senior (Cameron Collins), two fourth-year juniors (Tony Wilson and Shiloah Te'o-BYU fans should recognize the name, he was a big "get" for BYU before transferring to Oregon State two years ago), one junior (Rueben Robinson), one third-year sophomore (Michael Doctor), and one redshirt freshman (Shaydon Akuna).
Hawaii has some full-grown men out there at LB. If you've never seen these guys play, you are in for a treat in December. Corey Paredes is an absolute animal. One game I saw last season in the second quarter I think he was in on every tackle but one. They didn't run or throw near him at all in the second half: that is a game-changing LB!
Idaho throws 50 career starts out there, including combining for 245 tackles last season, but my initial impression from the game I watched was that they weren't so good in coverage (granted, it was against Boise State when I watched them, so that may be unfair to judge solely on that: nobody could cover Boise State last season). Utah State is a very experienced group, and Head Coach Gary Andersen can coach them up. His LBs in his 5 years as DC at Utah were phenomenal. Bobby Wagner is one tackle away from #300 for his career, I'm guessing he has that two plays into the season. UCF has a lot of potential at LB in terms of athleticism, but if they don't know where they need to be, it doesn't matter. On one side, they are playing a Florida basketball transfer who hasn't played in a football game in 7 years and on the other side they are playing either a JC transfer or a 5'9" 200-lbs RB. Senior Josh Linam holds down the middle, and looked pretty solid last season in the few games that I saw. He may be pretty isolated out there this season though...
Then we have the other two teams, which continue to be at the bottom of the position rankings (and with good reason): San Jose State and New Mexico State. San Jose State returns all three guys, including WAC Freshman of the Year Keith Smith, who led the team in tackles (116) and tackles for loss (14), and was second in sacks (4). New Mexico State returns 2 of 3, including return missionary BJ Adolpho who made the All-WAC team for the Aggies. But there's a reason these guys weren't highly recruited and ended up at the schools they did.
BYU would slide in between Utah and Oregon State on the list. They combine experience (Jordan Pendleton, Jameson Frazier, Aveni Leung-Wai, and Brandon Ogletree) with "young" talent (Uona Kaveinga, Austen Jorgensen, Iona Pritchard, Spencer Hadley, and Kyle Van Noy). If it seems like I named a lot of people, I did. BYU has a very deep LB group. I hope BYU scores a lot of points so some of these guys can get time on the field in kickoff coverage, because there aren't enough plays for all of them to get what they should.
I heard that Zac Stout will be red-shirting, so I didn't list him, but he came on quite a bit at the end of the year last season. Though nobody came on stronger at LB than Kyle Van Noy, unless you count Jameson Frazier who really emerged out of nowhere after Pendleton got hurt. If Kaveinga is as big of a man on the field as his coaches say he is, maybe BYU has a better group than Utah. 6 guys have started before, 8 guys could start now, and 9 guys should spend a lot of time on the field. Good thing BYU runs a 3-4.
I think we will even see a lot more of the 2-5-4 defense from BYU this season in passing situations. It was very effective last season, albeit a little predictable where the rush was coming from (Kyle Van Noy!). Anyway, it's a great group: very deep, quite big, and mostly fast. I still give the edge to Utah, but there is a pretty clear breakout of the groups of LBs we're looking at: the greats Texas and TCU, the really goods Utah and BYU, the learning curves Oregon State and Ole Miss, the solids Hawaii and Idaho, the not bads Utah State and UCF, and the total rummies SJSU and NMSU.
There is certainly a pattern with Texas, TCU, and Utah: very good front 7s on Defense. BYU's O-Line better be as good as advertised, or else BYU won't be able to run effectively or protect Heaps in those games! If you remember (and if not, the link is at the bottom), I have them as my #2 OL of these 12 teams, and probably in the top 10 groups in the country: no joke. After Texas and Utah, we'll see if I'm right or terribly, terribly wrong.
Link to O-Line: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/07/byus-2011-football-opponents-o-line.html
1. Texas
2. TCU
3. Utah
4. Oregon State
5. Ole Miss
6. Hawaii
7. Idaho
8. Utah State
9. UCF
10. San Jose State
11. New Mexico State
It's pretty much flip a coin with Texas and TCU. I'll give Texas the benefit of the doubt because they play with three LBs to TCU's two. K, not really the reason. I'm giving Keenan Robinson and Emmanuel Acho the leg up. Tanner Brock and Tank Carder are amazing LBs too, obviously, but maybe not quite as aggressive behind the line of scrimmage as Robinson and Acho. But, like I said, it's really a toss-up. Texas adds in Sophomore Jordan Hicks, who was a blue-chip, 5-star recruit, and the #1 LB out of HS last season, who has a year of experience under his belt now after playing significant minutes last season. He started to emerge at the end of last season.
Utah has two experienced seniors in Chaz Walker and Matt Martinez. Add in converted SS Brian Blechen and you have what I believe is one of the top 20 LB-ing groups in college football this season, yes even ahead of a lot of the SEC programs. They combined for 271 tackles, 5 sacks, 14 tackles for loss, and 7 INTs last season. And Blechen did his damage 10 yards off the line of scrimmage. Imagine what he can do with that distance cut in half!
Speaking of SEC programs that Utah exceeds, Ole Miss is at 5, with Oregon State at 4. Ole Miss has a bit more size and athleticism. Oregon State has a lot more experience. Neither schools have a whole lot of depth, especially with Ole Miss losing their best LB (DT Shackelford) to an ACL injury in the spring. True freshman CJ Johnson could be a good one for Ole Miss, BYU will find out very early how active of a middle LB he is. But in the end, I'll take the team with the 20-22 year olds, over the one with the 18-19 year olds. Oregon State 2-deep goes one senior (Cameron Collins), two fourth-year juniors (Tony Wilson and Shiloah Te'o-BYU fans should recognize the name, he was a big "get" for BYU before transferring to Oregon State two years ago), one junior (Rueben Robinson), one third-year sophomore (Michael Doctor), and one redshirt freshman (Shaydon Akuna).
Hawaii has some full-grown men out there at LB. If you've never seen these guys play, you are in for a treat in December. Corey Paredes is an absolute animal. One game I saw last season in the second quarter I think he was in on every tackle but one. They didn't run or throw near him at all in the second half: that is a game-changing LB!
Idaho throws 50 career starts out there, including combining for 245 tackles last season, but my initial impression from the game I watched was that they weren't so good in coverage (granted, it was against Boise State when I watched them, so that may be unfair to judge solely on that: nobody could cover Boise State last season). Utah State is a very experienced group, and Head Coach Gary Andersen can coach them up. His LBs in his 5 years as DC at Utah were phenomenal. Bobby Wagner is one tackle away from #300 for his career, I'm guessing he has that two plays into the season. UCF has a lot of potential at LB in terms of athleticism, but if they don't know where they need to be, it doesn't matter. On one side, they are playing a Florida basketball transfer who hasn't played in a football game in 7 years and on the other side they are playing either a JC transfer or a 5'9" 200-lbs RB. Senior Josh Linam holds down the middle, and looked pretty solid last season in the few games that I saw. He may be pretty isolated out there this season though...
Then we have the other two teams, which continue to be at the bottom of the position rankings (and with good reason): San Jose State and New Mexico State. San Jose State returns all three guys, including WAC Freshman of the Year Keith Smith, who led the team in tackles (116) and tackles for loss (14), and was second in sacks (4). New Mexico State returns 2 of 3, including return missionary BJ Adolpho who made the All-WAC team for the Aggies. But there's a reason these guys weren't highly recruited and ended up at the schools they did.
BYU would slide in between Utah and Oregon State on the list. They combine experience (Jordan Pendleton, Jameson Frazier, Aveni Leung-Wai, and Brandon Ogletree) with "young" talent (Uona Kaveinga, Austen Jorgensen, Iona Pritchard, Spencer Hadley, and Kyle Van Noy). If it seems like I named a lot of people, I did. BYU has a very deep LB group. I hope BYU scores a lot of points so some of these guys can get time on the field in kickoff coverage, because there aren't enough plays for all of them to get what they should.
I heard that Zac Stout will be red-shirting, so I didn't list him, but he came on quite a bit at the end of the year last season. Though nobody came on stronger at LB than Kyle Van Noy, unless you count Jameson Frazier who really emerged out of nowhere after Pendleton got hurt. If Kaveinga is as big of a man on the field as his coaches say he is, maybe BYU has a better group than Utah. 6 guys have started before, 8 guys could start now, and 9 guys should spend a lot of time on the field. Good thing BYU runs a 3-4.
I think we will even see a lot more of the 2-5-4 defense from BYU this season in passing situations. It was very effective last season, albeit a little predictable where the rush was coming from (Kyle Van Noy!). Anyway, it's a great group: very deep, quite big, and mostly fast. I still give the edge to Utah, but there is a pretty clear breakout of the groups of LBs we're looking at: the greats Texas and TCU, the really goods Utah and BYU, the learning curves Oregon State and Ole Miss, the solids Hawaii and Idaho, the not bads Utah State and UCF, and the total rummies SJSU and NMSU.
There is certainly a pattern with Texas, TCU, and Utah: very good front 7s on Defense. BYU's O-Line better be as good as advertised, or else BYU won't be able to run effectively or protect Heaps in those games! If you remember (and if not, the link is at the bottom), I have them as my #2 OL of these 12 teams, and probably in the top 10 groups in the country: no joke. After Texas and Utah, we'll see if I'm right or terribly, terribly wrong.
Link to O-Line: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/07/byus-2011-football-opponents-o-line.html
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: RB
Here is how I would rate the teams on BYU's schedule at the RB position.
1) TCU
2) Ole Miss
3) UCF
4) Texas
5) Utah State
6) Oregon State
7) Utah
8) Idaho
9) Hawaii
10) New Mexico State
11) San Jose State
I don't think there is anyone that would debate that TCU has the best collection of RBs of anyone on BYU's schedule. They have Ed Wesley who rushed for a 1,000 yards last season, Matthew Tucker who rushed for 709 yards and made 3rd Team All-MWC as a backup (I realize it's the MWC, but still), Waymon James who had 513 yards, and Aundre Dean who averaged 7 yards/carry in mop-up duty. It's a pretty stacked unit of RBs. Wesley and James are loads, both under 5'10" but both over 200 pounds and both with 4.6 speed.
Ole Miss has big running backs in Brandon Bolden and Enrique Davis and the little shifty "worm" back in Jeff Scott. Some of you know what I mean: Noel Devine at West Virginia, or Dexter McCluster from Ole Miss a few years back, the little shifty speedster that no one can get a solid hit on. But how they plan on utilizing the rushing attack is a big question mark in my mind. Houston Nutt is typically a shotgun, spread, wild "Rebel" type of coach, but Ole Miss is a little shaky at the WR position (and not just by SEC standards, Houston Nutt admitted as much just this week). On the other hand, he's loaded with big running backs and a mammoth OL. Maybe they go under C with two RB sets a bit more this season. No one is going to respect the WRs in a 3-WR set, and they might get laughed off the field if they ever go 4-wide. Anyway, they have good backs, and I'll be curious if Nutt abandons his spread game for a more traditional rushing attack, at least until his QBs get their feet wet.
UCF has a 3-headed monster of experienced backs, which is why I put them at #3 ahead of the Longhorns. Texas has the #1 HS recruit coming in this season at RB, but I don't care how good a guy was in high school, even in the state of Texas, college football is a different animal and most true freshmen struggle when they have to be THE feature back from day one. Potential starter Fozzy Whitaker has seen significant snaps over 3 seasons and has yet to break the 1,000-yard mark. For his career.
Utah fans probably scoff at me for putting Utah State's Robert Turbin ahead of their incoming freshman Harvey Langi and JC Transfer John White, but the dude's legit. I watched the man bull over a middle linebacker behind the line of scrimmage and then outrun the safety on his way to a 90+-yard TD. The man's my height, plus 40 pounds of pure muscle (OK, plus 60 pounds of muscle, minus 20 pounds of pure Crunchy Jalapeno Cheddar Cheetos), and runs a 4.5 40-yard dash. Langi is going to be a great back for Utah, and maybe even as a freshman. But, as with Texas/UCF, I give experienced talent the edge over potential (even better) talent in most cases. That plays the same with Oregon State, which has more experience than, and possibly just as much talent as, Utah, but that isn't saying much on the experience side.
Idaho boasts a very solid RB prospect in Ryan Bass who transferred from Arizona State after being one of the most sought after HS RBs 3 years back. While New Mexico State and San Jose State have more "proven" RBs than Hawaii, I give the edge to the Warriors simply because of their size and the fact that they have the perfect backs for their system: big, bruisers that will kill you up the middle if you pay too much attention to the spread passing attack. Also, I don't expect anything from the SJSU and NMSU backs because, frankly, I don't expect anything from their offenses, period. SJSU was held to 250 yards or less 5 times last season. NMSU was held to under 300 yards on 6 occasions.
I would slot BYU in between UCF and Texas, so 4th on the list. Like UCF, BYU has its own little 3-headed monster in seniors JJ DiLuigi and Bryan Kariya, countered with sophomore stud Joshua Quezada. DiLuigi is the speedster who can catch the ball out of the backfield and can kill teams in open space. Kariya is the dependable back: he probably won't have many 7 or 8 yard plays, but he won't have many minus 2 or 3 yarders either. He's good for 4 yards a play and no fumbles, plus I love watching him pick up blitzing LBs: he is every bit the pass-blocker Fahu Tahi and Manase Tonga were in college, even though he's 20 pounds lighter.
But Quezada will ultimately be remembered a lot longer than Kariya and DiLuigi. I have gone on record before, and repeat again now, if he plays at BYU all four years, he will be known as the greatest RB in BYU history. Statistically certainly, he should shatter all of Unga's records, even having to share the load his first two seasons, something Unga never really had to do. He already has Unga's size and balance. He exceeds Unga in the speed and acceleration department (and I'm not talking "deceptively quick" either, he is "actually" quick). All he needs to develop is his vision and he will be better than Unga by the end of his sophomore season. His big play potential is a lot better than Unga's, and that will produce some very memorable plays. Combine that with the fact that 7-11 games each of his last 3 seasons will be broadcast on the ESPN family of networks, and I give you the man who will be known as BYU's greatest running back ever: Joshua "Juice" Quezada.
1) TCU
2) Ole Miss
3) UCF
4) Texas
5) Utah State
6) Oregon State
7) Utah
8) Idaho
9) Hawaii
10) New Mexico State
11) San Jose State
I don't think there is anyone that would debate that TCU has the best collection of RBs of anyone on BYU's schedule. They have Ed Wesley who rushed for a 1,000 yards last season, Matthew Tucker who rushed for 709 yards and made 3rd Team All-MWC as a backup (I realize it's the MWC, but still), Waymon James who had 513 yards, and Aundre Dean who averaged 7 yards/carry in mop-up duty. It's a pretty stacked unit of RBs. Wesley and James are loads, both under 5'10" but both over 200 pounds and both with 4.6 speed.
Ole Miss has big running backs in Brandon Bolden and Enrique Davis and the little shifty "worm" back in Jeff Scott. Some of you know what I mean: Noel Devine at West Virginia, or Dexter McCluster from Ole Miss a few years back, the little shifty speedster that no one can get a solid hit on. But how they plan on utilizing the rushing attack is a big question mark in my mind. Houston Nutt is typically a shotgun, spread, wild "Rebel" type of coach, but Ole Miss is a little shaky at the WR position (and not just by SEC standards, Houston Nutt admitted as much just this week). On the other hand, he's loaded with big running backs and a mammoth OL. Maybe they go under C with two RB sets a bit more this season. No one is going to respect the WRs in a 3-WR set, and they might get laughed off the field if they ever go 4-wide. Anyway, they have good backs, and I'll be curious if Nutt abandons his spread game for a more traditional rushing attack, at least until his QBs get their feet wet.
UCF has a 3-headed monster of experienced backs, which is why I put them at #3 ahead of the Longhorns. Texas has the #1 HS recruit coming in this season at RB, but I don't care how good a guy was in high school, even in the state of Texas, college football is a different animal and most true freshmen struggle when they have to be THE feature back from day one. Potential starter Fozzy Whitaker has seen significant snaps over 3 seasons and has yet to break the 1,000-yard mark. For his career.
Utah fans probably scoff at me for putting Utah State's Robert Turbin ahead of their incoming freshman Harvey Langi and JC Transfer John White, but the dude's legit. I watched the man bull over a middle linebacker behind the line of scrimmage and then outrun the safety on his way to a 90+-yard TD. The man's my height, plus 40 pounds of pure muscle (OK, plus 60 pounds of muscle, minus 20 pounds of pure Crunchy Jalapeno Cheddar Cheetos), and runs a 4.5 40-yard dash. Langi is going to be a great back for Utah, and maybe even as a freshman. But, as with Texas/UCF, I give experienced talent the edge over potential (even better) talent in most cases. That plays the same with Oregon State, which has more experience than, and possibly just as much talent as, Utah, but that isn't saying much on the experience side.
Idaho boasts a very solid RB prospect in Ryan Bass who transferred from Arizona State after being one of the most sought after HS RBs 3 years back. While New Mexico State and San Jose State have more "proven" RBs than Hawaii, I give the edge to the Warriors simply because of their size and the fact that they have the perfect backs for their system: big, bruisers that will kill you up the middle if you pay too much attention to the spread passing attack. Also, I don't expect anything from the SJSU and NMSU backs because, frankly, I don't expect anything from their offenses, period. SJSU was held to 250 yards or less 5 times last season. NMSU was held to under 300 yards on 6 occasions.
I would slot BYU in between UCF and Texas, so 4th on the list. Like UCF, BYU has its own little 3-headed monster in seniors JJ DiLuigi and Bryan Kariya, countered with sophomore stud Joshua Quezada. DiLuigi is the speedster who can catch the ball out of the backfield and can kill teams in open space. Kariya is the dependable back: he probably won't have many 7 or 8 yard plays, but he won't have many minus 2 or 3 yarders either. He's good for 4 yards a play and no fumbles, plus I love watching him pick up blitzing LBs: he is every bit the pass-blocker Fahu Tahi and Manase Tonga were in college, even though he's 20 pounds lighter.
But Quezada will ultimately be remembered a lot longer than Kariya and DiLuigi. I have gone on record before, and repeat again now, if he plays at BYU all four years, he will be known as the greatest RB in BYU history. Statistically certainly, he should shatter all of Unga's records, even having to share the load his first two seasons, something Unga never really had to do. He already has Unga's size and balance. He exceeds Unga in the speed and acceleration department (and I'm not talking "deceptively quick" either, he is "actually" quick). All he needs to develop is his vision and he will be better than Unga by the end of his sophomore season. His big play potential is a lot better than Unga's, and that will produce some very memorable plays. Combine that with the fact that 7-11 games each of his last 3 seasons will be broadcast on the ESPN family of networks, and I give you the man who will be known as BYU's greatest running back ever: Joshua "Juice" Quezada.
Tuesday, July 19, 2011
BYU Scheduling Notes
I'm sure anyone reading this right now has heard that BYU and Southern Mississippi have agreed to two games, the first in 2014 in Provo, and the second in Hattiesburg in 2015. I think it's a good series. It is two quality programs squaring off. BYU fans should believe that BYU will win both games, while Southern Miss fans should believe they could win both games. That's exciting. However, that is not the purpose of this current post...I like the series.
BYU's 2012 schedule is "nearly complete" according to Bronco Mendenhall. BYU is missing the final two pieces of the puzzle. BYU has 4 scheduled home games and 6 scheduled road games. So the two games left are both going to be home games, unless ESPN flexes its muscle and gets a game moved for BYU. BYU has 6 quality opponents on the schedule already (Oregon State, Hawaii, at Utah, at Boise State, at Georgia Tech, and at Notre Dame), so, at most, BYU would only be looking for one more. My guess would be ESPN will try to help them get a decent name school on September 29th, 2012. The other game will probably be a "pay day" game (either a I-AA or small non-BCS school with an opening) the end of October or early November. It's a little too late in the game (and there are too few early season weekends available) to get two big names to agree to games in Provo.
2013 presents a similar conundrum. BYU already has home games against Texas, Boise State, Georgia Tech, and Utah (is it too early to order my season tickets for 2013? Wow!). They have road games at Hawaii and Notre Dame. BYU will probably add one or two more bigger names, maybe they go for broke with 3, probably mostly on the road, but most of the rest of their 2013 scheduling is going to be smaller schools. I do think 2013 may be the first year BYU adds a Mountain West Conference school, especially since BYU may be willing to start a two-game series with a road game in 2013, with a return trip in 2014 or 2015. I'm looking at New Mexico, SDSU, or Wyoming as the most likely scenarios. I know Brady Hoke said SDSU would never play BYU again, but he's gone and Rocky Long isn't Brady Hoke. I could see him actively pursuing a game with BYU, particularly if they can get the Cougars to San Diego first. Rocky is a classy guy and he was a mentor to Bronco Mendenhall.
2014 has its road games on the schedule already, so BYU is looking to add only home games. BYU is at Texas, Boise State, Georgia Tech, UCF, and Utah. The only home game is the aforementioned Southern Miss game. Hawaii is on the schedule but the location is TBD. Bronco said that he wants to play 7 homes games each season. By my count, that's 6 to go (either Hawaii is a home game, or BYU will play at Hawaii and be eligible for a 13th game, i.e. 7 home and 6 road games)! BYU has 7 perennial bowl teams on the schedule in 7 games. So I wouldn't expect more than 2 more similar-type teams. There have to be easier games on the schedule too. Even the great SEC teams have 4 or 5 games they should win by 3-4 TDs between their non-conference schedule and Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
As far as scheduling rumors go: I wouldn't believe them. There have been internet rumors that BYU is playing just about anyone and everyone. Don't buy into it. BYU is probably in discussion with just about anyone will to talk to them about games, and that's where the rumors start. Being in discussions about scheduling is different than having games scheduled. Remember BYU has to get 12 games a year for the next 8 years (in four seasons they will likely be eligible for 13 games). They only have contracts for 41 games out of the 100 they'll have in those 8 years. They better be talking with at least 30-40 teams. And realistically, they should be talking to about 60 teams in the hope that they can get deals done with the 30-40 teams they'll need in order to get that all filled.
I would anticipate BYU will schedule with Utah State for at least 4 more games in that period. I would anticipate BYU to get at least 2 of the "2-for-1" deals Tom Holmoe mentioned at Media Day. Who the opponent will be is anyone's guess at this point (and there are a lot of people guessing, and they are making a lot of guesses too). There, I have scheduled 10 games for BYU...
ESPN will probably continue to work on neutral site locations. However, what BYU really needs is people to travel to Provo. They can't schedule many 2-for-1 deals. They can't take too many neutral site games. They probably can't afford to take any one-and-done road games unless it is an Ohio State, Alabama, Florida-type team.
Another anticipation that I have from BYU's schedule is to see some Big Ten teams. They have to make something work with a Big Ten team. They can't afford stay out of the Midwest (besides the four trips to Notre Dame). Even if they add a former Big XII North team, they have to get a few games in the middle of the country. I would also anticipate some Big East teams in the future. But both of those are probably farther out. BYU's biggest need is to fill its schedules the next two years, and I expect a lot of rummies getting added those years before we see much in the way of big name programs being added down the road.
Dabble in the rumors if it is fun for you, but don't expect a high rate of return, or satisfaction on those. Keep in mind that the places purporting these deals said that some were done, and that BYU was just waiting for the right time to announce them. Well, a week ago BYU held its Media Day, and didn't announce a thing. That seems like it would have been the perfect time. Now, here we are, a week later and BYU makes the big announcement of a game with...Southern Miss. The people spreading the "news" have been wrong enough the past 6 months to make me feel like they don't have any more inside info than I do (and I have none, but I can think, perhaps that is where my advantage lies). Rumors of series with Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, UCLA, USC, and Arizona State may end up being right in part, and may be really fun to think about. But I would be shocked if BYU played more than 4 or 5 of those 7 schools in the next decade. And I wouldn't waste my time on it. Stick to the facts, and you'll be less disappointed. The fact, right now, is that we are 6 weeks and 1 day away from kickoff!
BYU's 2012 schedule is "nearly complete" according to Bronco Mendenhall. BYU is missing the final two pieces of the puzzle. BYU has 4 scheduled home games and 6 scheduled road games. So the two games left are both going to be home games, unless ESPN flexes its muscle and gets a game moved for BYU. BYU has 6 quality opponents on the schedule already (Oregon State, Hawaii, at Utah, at Boise State, at Georgia Tech, and at Notre Dame), so, at most, BYU would only be looking for one more. My guess would be ESPN will try to help them get a decent name school on September 29th, 2012. The other game will probably be a "pay day" game (either a I-AA or small non-BCS school with an opening) the end of October or early November. It's a little too late in the game (and there are too few early season weekends available) to get two big names to agree to games in Provo.
2013 presents a similar conundrum. BYU already has home games against Texas, Boise State, Georgia Tech, and Utah (is it too early to order my season tickets for 2013? Wow!). They have road games at Hawaii and Notre Dame. BYU will probably add one or two more bigger names, maybe they go for broke with 3, probably mostly on the road, but most of the rest of their 2013 scheduling is going to be smaller schools. I do think 2013 may be the first year BYU adds a Mountain West Conference school, especially since BYU may be willing to start a two-game series with a road game in 2013, with a return trip in 2014 or 2015. I'm looking at New Mexico, SDSU, or Wyoming as the most likely scenarios. I know Brady Hoke said SDSU would never play BYU again, but he's gone and Rocky Long isn't Brady Hoke. I could see him actively pursuing a game with BYU, particularly if they can get the Cougars to San Diego first. Rocky is a classy guy and he was a mentor to Bronco Mendenhall.
2014 has its road games on the schedule already, so BYU is looking to add only home games. BYU is at Texas, Boise State, Georgia Tech, UCF, and Utah. The only home game is the aforementioned Southern Miss game. Hawaii is on the schedule but the location is TBD. Bronco said that he wants to play 7 homes games each season. By my count, that's 6 to go (either Hawaii is a home game, or BYU will play at Hawaii and be eligible for a 13th game, i.e. 7 home and 6 road games)! BYU has 7 perennial bowl teams on the schedule in 7 games. So I wouldn't expect more than 2 more similar-type teams. There have to be easier games on the schedule too. Even the great SEC teams have 4 or 5 games they should win by 3-4 TDs between their non-conference schedule and Vanderbilt and Kentucky.
As far as scheduling rumors go: I wouldn't believe them. There have been internet rumors that BYU is playing just about anyone and everyone. Don't buy into it. BYU is probably in discussion with just about anyone will to talk to them about games, and that's where the rumors start. Being in discussions about scheduling is different than having games scheduled. Remember BYU has to get 12 games a year for the next 8 years (in four seasons they will likely be eligible for 13 games). They only have contracts for 41 games out of the 100 they'll have in those 8 years. They better be talking with at least 30-40 teams. And realistically, they should be talking to about 60 teams in the hope that they can get deals done with the 30-40 teams they'll need in order to get that all filled.
I would anticipate BYU will schedule with Utah State for at least 4 more games in that period. I would anticipate BYU to get at least 2 of the "2-for-1" deals Tom Holmoe mentioned at Media Day. Who the opponent will be is anyone's guess at this point (and there are a lot of people guessing, and they are making a lot of guesses too). There, I have scheduled 10 games for BYU...
ESPN will probably continue to work on neutral site locations. However, what BYU really needs is people to travel to Provo. They can't schedule many 2-for-1 deals. They can't take too many neutral site games. They probably can't afford to take any one-and-done road games unless it is an Ohio State, Alabama, Florida-type team.
Another anticipation that I have from BYU's schedule is to see some Big Ten teams. They have to make something work with a Big Ten team. They can't afford stay out of the Midwest (besides the four trips to Notre Dame). Even if they add a former Big XII North team, they have to get a few games in the middle of the country. I would also anticipate some Big East teams in the future. But both of those are probably farther out. BYU's biggest need is to fill its schedules the next two years, and I expect a lot of rummies getting added those years before we see much in the way of big name programs being added down the road.
Dabble in the rumors if it is fun for you, but don't expect a high rate of return, or satisfaction on those. Keep in mind that the places purporting these deals said that some were done, and that BYU was just waiting for the right time to announce them. Well, a week ago BYU held its Media Day, and didn't announce a thing. That seems like it would have been the perfect time. Now, here we are, a week later and BYU makes the big announcement of a game with...Southern Miss. The people spreading the "news" have been wrong enough the past 6 months to make me feel like they don't have any more inside info than I do (and I have none, but I can think, perhaps that is where my advantage lies). Rumors of series with Wisconsin, Penn State, Nebraska, Ohio State, UCLA, USC, and Arizona State may end up being right in part, and may be really fun to think about. But I would be shocked if BYU played more than 4 or 5 of those 7 schools in the next decade. And I wouldn't waste my time on it. Stick to the facts, and you'll be less disappointed. The fact, right now, is that we are 6 weeks and 1 day away from kickoff!
Sunday, July 17, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: QB
BYU actually got a pretty good draw for opposing QBs this season. They don't face any of the upper echelon stars of the college game. In fact, probably only 4 of the QBs they will face are probably in the top half of FBS QBs in 2011. They have a couple of "stars in the making" on the schedule, but they have their own one of those as well. They face a few mobile QBs, but they will see mostly drop-back passers. Keep in mind, my rankings reflect not just the starting QB, but also takes into account the depth at QB.
1) Hawaii
2) Oregon State
3) Utah
4) Texas
5) UCF
6) TCU
7) Ole Miss
8) Idaho
9) New Mexico State
10) Utah State
11) San Jose State
Hawaii's Bryant Moniz is the most polished QB BYU will face this season (no doubt a relief to their defense that a former walk-on, former pizza delivery man is the best QB they will see this season). He is mobile and tough, which can cause fits with Hawaii's 5-wide, spread, run-and-gun passing attack, because there simply aren't enough defenders to cover 5 guys while keeping an eye on the QB. He threw for over 5,000 yards last season, completing 65% of his passes, with 39 TDs to only 15 INTs. Because Hawaii throws so much, I would anticipate similar video game-like passing numbers from Moniz this season. He is backed up by another senior, Shane Austin, who is in his fourth year under the tutelage of Offensive Coordinator Nick Rolovich. They are an experienced bunch already, and they'll have 12 more games under their belts before playing BYU.
Junior Ryan Katz returns as the starter for Oregon State, his fourth year in the program, all under the brilliant offensive geniuses (or is it genii?) Mike Riley and Danny Langsdorf. He completed 60% of his passes last year, for 2,401 yards, 18 TDs, and 11 INTs. And that was with his best receiver hurt most of the season. He has a very experienced group of WRs, behind what should be a pretty decent OL. He is backed up by third year sophomore Cody Vaz.
Utah's Jordan Wynn returns from surgery this offseason after an average sophomore season. He has been in the program for 2.5 years already and showed some signs of excellence early last season (before suffering a shoulder injury at Iowa State). He has 15 career starts, has thrown for over 3,600 yards, with a 60% completion percentage, 25 TDs, and 14 INTs. The backups have some time in the program, but have no significant game experience (Tyler Shreve has never suited up for Utah after some off-the-field issues prior to the 2010 season). If Wynn gets hurt, Utah is in trouble.
I suppose that begs the question of why I have Texas below Utah: I just said the Utes have an above average QB with no back-up. Texas has two guys that could start for the University of TEXAS. The problem is: one of them stunk up the place last season (Garrett Gilbert had 10 TDs, 17 INTs), and the other (Case McCoy, younger brother of Colt) only has one pass attempt in his career. The other reason I put Texas here: Texas hasn't really picked a starter yet. I think having a clearly defined #1 guy with experience gives you an advantage over a potentially better QB situation where there is nothing clear. Also in the mix is redshirt freshman Connor Wood and incoming freshman David Ash who was at Texas in the spring. They are deep in talent, but shallow in leadership. Until a leader emerges, Utah edges them out in my rankings. They are also dealing with a new offensive coordinator this season: he is a good one, for sure, but he's still new to these guys.
UCF returns dual threat sophomore QB Jeff Godfrey. Last season Godfrey had more of a run-first mentality, but he still completed 67% of his passes for 2,159 yards, with 13 TDs to 8 INTs. He also added 10 rushing TDs. He was Conference USA's Freshman of the Year last season, after leading UCF to a C-USA Title and 11-3 finish. He supposedly beefed up a bit in the offseason as well. He needed to: the Knights cannot afford to lose him to injury. He is backed up by redshirt freshman Blake Bortles, with WR Rob Calabrese at #3 on the depth chart. I don't think he'll have as big of a green light to run, in light of that fact.
Andy Dalton was a HUGE key to TCU's success the past 3 seasons. Replacing him will be very difficult, and why I believe TCU will not win 10 games this year, though I realize I am alone in that opinion. Taking the reigns is sophomore Casey Pachall, who has very limited experience. He may have more "potential" than Dalton did at this point in his career, but the guy hasn't taken a meaningful snap in college yet. They don't have any experienced backups anywhere either. Pachall may be a good player, but there is a reason experience matters as much as it does at the QB position.
Ole Miss' QB situation is a bit of a mess. They have a JC transfer that wasn't good enough to be the back-up last season for a 4-8 team. They have a transfer that wasn't good enough to play at Louisville. They have a transfer that wasn't good enough to play at West Virginia. Now granted, these are guys that COULD be good. But, like Casey Pachall for TCU, until they have proven it in games, there is just potential. I also believe the fact that Ole Miss didn't name a starter after spring hurts too. No guy got starter reps in spring. No guy gets starter respect from other skill position players in the offseason. No guy will get starter reps early in fall camp. For BYU fans, this should sound familiar, and that turned out a bit nightmare-ish for the Cougars. I don't expect, in game one, that the Rebels will win the QB battle against BYU.
Idaho has a new starter in Brian Reader, but he's a senior in his third year in the program. He had some experience as a spot starter for the 8-5 Vandals team in 2009 (including throwing for over 300 yards against Boise State). He is the kind of guy a coach doesn't mind using in a transition year as he grooms his next multi-year starter. He's been around the block. He's a pretty good QB. He has some good weapons around him. He has NFL size. And everyone expects big things (down the road) from redshirt freshman Justin Podrabsky, who is listed as #3 on the depth chart post-spring. As near as I can tell from Moscow, he's really 2b at this point, and with a good fall camp, he may very well take over as #2. He is the QB of the future in the dome.
New Mexico State returns all three QBs that started last season. Andrew Manley is the heir apparent, the man supposed to remind NMSU Aggies fans of Chase Holbrook, but he's still just a true sophomore. He completed just 52% of his passes last season (in the WAC) and had 1 TD to 6 INTs (again, in the WAC). So while the good news is that they have 3 guys with game experience, the bad news is it's the same guys that played last season and combined for a 2-10 record. The "depth" may be no worse than the starter, so from a depth standpoint, they are set. From a talent standpoint, they are a bottom-feeder WAC team.
Utah State may have the better collection of QBs, when compared with New Mexico State, however, unlike NMSU, they haven't named an official starter and none of the 3 guys in contention have any career pass attempts. The good news for Aggies fans: whoever emerges as the starter will be around for a while, as the guys in contention are Junior (JC transfer) Adam Kennedy, redshirt freshman Alex Hart, and true freshman Chuckie Keeton.
San Jose State has more experience than Utah State but haven't named a starter yet. And the experienced players (senior JC Transfer Matt Faulkner and sophomore Dasmen Stewart) are likely to be #3 and #4 on the depth chart. It's quite plausible that BYU will face a true freshman in game 6 (and a 2-star recruit at that). But, hey, San Jose State isn't going to get good recruits, the best they can hope for is that they have an experienced QB, which they won't have in 2011.
I would slate BYU's QB situation right around Utah at #3. After the Utah game last season, I thought Heaps was clearly the better QB, only to find out a few days later that Jordan Wynn had been playing hurt and had season-ending surgery, so all I really knew was that Heaps at 100% was clearly better than Wynn at 60%. Wynn should be back to 100%, so that changes things. Wynn is getting his third OC in three years, while Heaps is getting his second in two (though his new OC was his QB coach last season). Both of them have been through two sets of spring practices (Wynn was injured and didn't participate in 2011).
Certainly BYU has a better situation with their depth with Riley Nelson, James Lark, and Jason Munns, as they were more highly recruited players with more time in the program than what Utah has right now. But I believe Wynn and his 15 starts trumps Heaps and his 10, six of which were against bottom 30 defenses. Watching Wynn over the past two years, sometimes he is just uber-efficient, probably 4 or 5 times a season I look at his stat line in awe, he'll be like 80% with 250 yards and 2 TDs. We've only seen uber-efficient Heaps twice, but, while both were away from home, they were both were against atrociously bad defenses. Texas hasn't seen an uber-efficient performance from any of the QBs on the roster. As of now, Wynn is the best QB among those three schools, BYU has the best depth, and Texas has the best "recruits" (which doesn't really count for anything, and why I rate them at the bottom of the pack).
1) Hawaii
2) Oregon State
3) Utah
4) Texas
5) UCF
6) TCU
7) Ole Miss
8) Idaho
9) New Mexico State
10) Utah State
11) San Jose State
Hawaii's Bryant Moniz is the most polished QB BYU will face this season (no doubt a relief to their defense that a former walk-on, former pizza delivery man is the best QB they will see this season). He is mobile and tough, which can cause fits with Hawaii's 5-wide, spread, run-and-gun passing attack, because there simply aren't enough defenders to cover 5 guys while keeping an eye on the QB. He threw for over 5,000 yards last season, completing 65% of his passes, with 39 TDs to only 15 INTs. Because Hawaii throws so much, I would anticipate similar video game-like passing numbers from Moniz this season. He is backed up by another senior, Shane Austin, who is in his fourth year under the tutelage of Offensive Coordinator Nick Rolovich. They are an experienced bunch already, and they'll have 12 more games under their belts before playing BYU.
Junior Ryan Katz returns as the starter for Oregon State, his fourth year in the program, all under the brilliant offensive geniuses (or is it genii?) Mike Riley and Danny Langsdorf. He completed 60% of his passes last year, for 2,401 yards, 18 TDs, and 11 INTs. And that was with his best receiver hurt most of the season. He has a very experienced group of WRs, behind what should be a pretty decent OL. He is backed up by third year sophomore Cody Vaz.
Utah's Jordan Wynn returns from surgery this offseason after an average sophomore season. He has been in the program for 2.5 years already and showed some signs of excellence early last season (before suffering a shoulder injury at Iowa State). He has 15 career starts, has thrown for over 3,600 yards, with a 60% completion percentage, 25 TDs, and 14 INTs. The backups have some time in the program, but have no significant game experience (Tyler Shreve has never suited up for Utah after some off-the-field issues prior to the 2010 season). If Wynn gets hurt, Utah is in trouble.
I suppose that begs the question of why I have Texas below Utah: I just said the Utes have an above average QB with no back-up. Texas has two guys that could start for the University of TEXAS. The problem is: one of them stunk up the place last season (Garrett Gilbert had 10 TDs, 17 INTs), and the other (Case McCoy, younger brother of Colt) only has one pass attempt in his career. The other reason I put Texas here: Texas hasn't really picked a starter yet. I think having a clearly defined #1 guy with experience gives you an advantage over a potentially better QB situation where there is nothing clear. Also in the mix is redshirt freshman Connor Wood and incoming freshman David Ash who was at Texas in the spring. They are deep in talent, but shallow in leadership. Until a leader emerges, Utah edges them out in my rankings. They are also dealing with a new offensive coordinator this season: he is a good one, for sure, but he's still new to these guys.
UCF returns dual threat sophomore QB Jeff Godfrey. Last season Godfrey had more of a run-first mentality, but he still completed 67% of his passes for 2,159 yards, with 13 TDs to 8 INTs. He also added 10 rushing TDs. He was Conference USA's Freshman of the Year last season, after leading UCF to a C-USA Title and 11-3 finish. He supposedly beefed up a bit in the offseason as well. He needed to: the Knights cannot afford to lose him to injury. He is backed up by redshirt freshman Blake Bortles, with WR Rob Calabrese at #3 on the depth chart. I don't think he'll have as big of a green light to run, in light of that fact.
Andy Dalton was a HUGE key to TCU's success the past 3 seasons. Replacing him will be very difficult, and why I believe TCU will not win 10 games this year, though I realize I am alone in that opinion. Taking the reigns is sophomore Casey Pachall, who has very limited experience. He may have more "potential" than Dalton did at this point in his career, but the guy hasn't taken a meaningful snap in college yet. They don't have any experienced backups anywhere either. Pachall may be a good player, but there is a reason experience matters as much as it does at the QB position.
Ole Miss' QB situation is a bit of a mess. They have a JC transfer that wasn't good enough to be the back-up last season for a 4-8 team. They have a transfer that wasn't good enough to play at Louisville. They have a transfer that wasn't good enough to play at West Virginia. Now granted, these are guys that COULD be good. But, like Casey Pachall for TCU, until they have proven it in games, there is just potential. I also believe the fact that Ole Miss didn't name a starter after spring hurts too. No guy got starter reps in spring. No guy gets starter respect from other skill position players in the offseason. No guy will get starter reps early in fall camp. For BYU fans, this should sound familiar, and that turned out a bit nightmare-ish for the Cougars. I don't expect, in game one, that the Rebels will win the QB battle against BYU.
Idaho has a new starter in Brian Reader, but he's a senior in his third year in the program. He had some experience as a spot starter for the 8-5 Vandals team in 2009 (including throwing for over 300 yards against Boise State). He is the kind of guy a coach doesn't mind using in a transition year as he grooms his next multi-year starter. He's been around the block. He's a pretty good QB. He has some good weapons around him. He has NFL size. And everyone expects big things (down the road) from redshirt freshman Justin Podrabsky, who is listed as #3 on the depth chart post-spring. As near as I can tell from Moscow, he's really 2b at this point, and with a good fall camp, he may very well take over as #2. He is the QB of the future in the dome.
New Mexico State returns all three QBs that started last season. Andrew Manley is the heir apparent, the man supposed to remind NMSU Aggies fans of Chase Holbrook, but he's still just a true sophomore. He completed just 52% of his passes last season (in the WAC) and had 1 TD to 6 INTs (again, in the WAC). So while the good news is that they have 3 guys with game experience, the bad news is it's the same guys that played last season and combined for a 2-10 record. The "depth" may be no worse than the starter, so from a depth standpoint, they are set. From a talent standpoint, they are a bottom-feeder WAC team.
Utah State may have the better collection of QBs, when compared with New Mexico State, however, unlike NMSU, they haven't named an official starter and none of the 3 guys in contention have any career pass attempts. The good news for Aggies fans: whoever emerges as the starter will be around for a while, as the guys in contention are Junior (JC transfer) Adam Kennedy, redshirt freshman Alex Hart, and true freshman Chuckie Keeton.
San Jose State has more experience than Utah State but haven't named a starter yet. And the experienced players (senior JC Transfer Matt Faulkner and sophomore Dasmen Stewart) are likely to be #3 and #4 on the depth chart. It's quite plausible that BYU will face a true freshman in game 6 (and a 2-star recruit at that). But, hey, San Jose State isn't going to get good recruits, the best they can hope for is that they have an experienced QB, which they won't have in 2011.
I would slate BYU's QB situation right around Utah at #3. After the Utah game last season, I thought Heaps was clearly the better QB, only to find out a few days later that Jordan Wynn had been playing hurt and had season-ending surgery, so all I really knew was that Heaps at 100% was clearly better than Wynn at 60%. Wynn should be back to 100%, so that changes things. Wynn is getting his third OC in three years, while Heaps is getting his second in two (though his new OC was his QB coach last season). Both of them have been through two sets of spring practices (Wynn was injured and didn't participate in 2011).
Certainly BYU has a better situation with their depth with Riley Nelson, James Lark, and Jason Munns, as they were more highly recruited players with more time in the program than what Utah has right now. But I believe Wynn and his 15 starts trumps Heaps and his 10, six of which were against bottom 30 defenses. Watching Wynn over the past two years, sometimes he is just uber-efficient, probably 4 or 5 times a season I look at his stat line in awe, he'll be like 80% with 250 yards and 2 TDs. We've only seen uber-efficient Heaps twice, but, while both were away from home, they were both were against atrociously bad defenses. Texas hasn't seen an uber-efficient performance from any of the QBs on the roster. As of now, Wynn is the best QB among those three schools, BYU has the best depth, and Texas has the best "recruits" (which doesn't really count for anything, and why I rate them at the bottom of the pack).
Saturday, July 16, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: D-Line
Keeping with this week's theme in the trenches, here is my evaluation on what to expect from BYU's opponents on the Defensive Line. I really believe that a good offense starts with an offensive line, and a good defense starts with a good defensive line. A team can have Peyton Manning or Walter Payton or Jerry Rice, but if they don't have a good OL, it won't matter. Ray Lewis and Ronnie Lott could be paired on the same defense, but if the front 4 (or 3) can't hold up their end of the deal, it won't matter. Without further ado, here are my rankings of the defensive lines that BYU will face:
1) Texas
2) Utah
3) TCU
4) Ole Miss
5) Hawaii
6) Oregon State
7) Idaho
8) UCF
9) San Jose State
10) New Mexico State
11) Utah State
Texas has the two best defensive linemen that BYU will face all season long in Kheeston Randall and Alex Okafor. They are both day 1 NFL Draft Picks next year (if Okafor leaves early). They will be breaking in two new starters opposite them, but they are certainly not bad players. Jackson Jeffcoat worked his way into the rotation as a true freshman last season, after coming in as one of the highest recruited DEs out of high school. They lack experience in their depth chart, but the back-ups are all big, strong, fast players that were highly sought after coming out of high school. The line averages 6'4" 275 pounds. That's a big (and fast) front four to deal with.
Utah has the biggest defensive line BYU will see all season, at 6'4 280 pounds. It's not just the size, but the depth that is impressive for the Utes. This group is kind of the culmination of years of experience, a lot of these guys have been injured over the past three seasons, so all of them have started and gained experience. They are mostly juniors and seniors, with the lone sophomore being the younger brother of (and potentially better than) NFL DE Paul Kruger, Joe Kruger. This group is going to surprise the Pac-12: they are big, they are fast, they are aggressive, they are well-coached, and they are good. If Texas didn't have BOTH Randall and Okafor, I would say this underrated Utah DL would be the best BYU will see all season long.
The TCU front four gets the hype that Utah deserves. Stansly Maponga had a great freshman season in the MWC. DJ Yendrey had a great season as a backup DT. They lack the star- and fire-power of previous TCU DLs. With that said, Patterson has a great scheme and the players will perform, as a result. However, this unit is a bit inexperienced, and doesn't bring the same potential for Tackles for Loss and Sacks that a typical TCU DL brings into a season. I'm not saying this unit won't be great, but they are getting way too much hype for their accomplishments to date. This is a rebuilding DL, building for a potentially special season in 2012 in the Big East.
Ole Miss has DE Kentrell Lockett, a 6th year senior, who leads the SEC in career TFL coming into the season, which is saying quite a lot. Wayne Dorsey is also a senior at the other DE spot. Up the middle, however, they are inexperienced and undersized, especially for a pair of SEC DTs.
Hawaii has a bevy of experience in the front four. With Hawaii, they always have size up the middle (top 4 DTs all between 285 and 305 pounds), and speed on the edge (Paipai Falemalu has 12 TFLs in two seasons). They don't have a lot of depth on the outside, but the interior DTs have experience, both in the program and in game-time experience.
Oregon State's biggest issue coming into this season defensively is the D-Line. They are smaller than a typical OSU front (only two players on the 2-Deep are over 270 pounds). With that said, Oregon State knows how to scheme around smaller defensive fronts with a lot of stunts that utilize their speed. Last year, Washington (the offense that Oregon State played last season most similar to what I expect from the 2011 BYU team) averaged 4.4 yards/carry against a bigger, better OSU front four. In 2009, Oregon State (again a bigger, better front four), held BYU to 3.3 yards/carry in the Vegas Bowl, with Unga and Tonga.
The remaining five teams are a bit tougher to compare (especially considering how little I watched of these teams last season, though I did see each of them at least once, UCF being the most watched at 4 games, but they are returning the fewest starters, which negates that to some degree). SJSU is the most experienced group, but is also the smallest. Utah State has the best defensive coaches, but the least depth (but run a 3-4, so perhaps the depth concerns are minimized somewhat). UCF, Idaho, and New Mexico State have about the same amount of size, experience, and depth. UCF gets the edge talent-wise, New Mexico State coaching-wise, Idaho aggregate-wise. UCF does have the biggest Defensive Lineman BYU will face all season, with 6'3" 371 pound Sophomore Jose Jose. However, he's a JC transfer that may or may not have an impact on the middle in that game.
I would slate BYU's Defensive Line probably right around 4th on the list. The expectations for BYU's DL are a bit different in the 3-4 system, but I think the fact that they are more experienced than Ole Miss, at least among the starters, gives them a slight edge. BYU's depth took a hit with Thomas Bryson being declared ineligible for 2011, however, if Jordan Richardson is, in fact, recovered from his knee injury, he can help hold up the second line that is crucial to BYU's success. BYU expects maniacal effort from their DL, based on the fact that the back-ups can go in with no drop-off. If Richardson can't go, Manumaleuna is essentially all alone. I expect Putnam to be more consistent this season. If Putnam plays that on-again-off-again D this season, then I would drop BYU down to 5 on the list, or maybe even 6 below Hawaii.
Now that I've given you my thoughts on the OL/DL which ultimately decide how good a football team is, I'll go to QBs next, which is the position nearest and dearest to BYU fans' hearts.
1) Texas
2) Utah
3) TCU
4) Ole Miss
5) Hawaii
6) Oregon State
7) Idaho
8) UCF
9) San Jose State
10) New Mexico State
11) Utah State
Texas has the two best defensive linemen that BYU will face all season long in Kheeston Randall and Alex Okafor. They are both day 1 NFL Draft Picks next year (if Okafor leaves early). They will be breaking in two new starters opposite them, but they are certainly not bad players. Jackson Jeffcoat worked his way into the rotation as a true freshman last season, after coming in as one of the highest recruited DEs out of high school. They lack experience in their depth chart, but the back-ups are all big, strong, fast players that were highly sought after coming out of high school. The line averages 6'4" 275 pounds. That's a big (and fast) front four to deal with.
Utah has the biggest defensive line BYU will see all season, at 6'4 280 pounds. It's not just the size, but the depth that is impressive for the Utes. This group is kind of the culmination of years of experience, a lot of these guys have been injured over the past three seasons, so all of them have started and gained experience. They are mostly juniors and seniors, with the lone sophomore being the younger brother of (and potentially better than) NFL DE Paul Kruger, Joe Kruger. This group is going to surprise the Pac-12: they are big, they are fast, they are aggressive, they are well-coached, and they are good. If Texas didn't have BOTH Randall and Okafor, I would say this underrated Utah DL would be the best BYU will see all season long.
The TCU front four gets the hype that Utah deserves. Stansly Maponga had a great freshman season in the MWC. DJ Yendrey had a great season as a backup DT. They lack the star- and fire-power of previous TCU DLs. With that said, Patterson has a great scheme and the players will perform, as a result. However, this unit is a bit inexperienced, and doesn't bring the same potential for Tackles for Loss and Sacks that a typical TCU DL brings into a season. I'm not saying this unit won't be great, but they are getting way too much hype for their accomplishments to date. This is a rebuilding DL, building for a potentially special season in 2012 in the Big East.
Ole Miss has DE Kentrell Lockett, a 6th year senior, who leads the SEC in career TFL coming into the season, which is saying quite a lot. Wayne Dorsey is also a senior at the other DE spot. Up the middle, however, they are inexperienced and undersized, especially for a pair of SEC DTs.
Hawaii has a bevy of experience in the front four. With Hawaii, they always have size up the middle (top 4 DTs all between 285 and 305 pounds), and speed on the edge (Paipai Falemalu has 12 TFLs in two seasons). They don't have a lot of depth on the outside, but the interior DTs have experience, both in the program and in game-time experience.
Oregon State's biggest issue coming into this season defensively is the D-Line. They are smaller than a typical OSU front (only two players on the 2-Deep are over 270 pounds). With that said, Oregon State knows how to scheme around smaller defensive fronts with a lot of stunts that utilize their speed. Last year, Washington (the offense that Oregon State played last season most similar to what I expect from the 2011 BYU team) averaged 4.4 yards/carry against a bigger, better OSU front four. In 2009, Oregon State (again a bigger, better front four), held BYU to 3.3 yards/carry in the Vegas Bowl, with Unga and Tonga.
The remaining five teams are a bit tougher to compare (especially considering how little I watched of these teams last season, though I did see each of them at least once, UCF being the most watched at 4 games, but they are returning the fewest starters, which negates that to some degree). SJSU is the most experienced group, but is also the smallest. Utah State has the best defensive coaches, but the least depth (but run a 3-4, so perhaps the depth concerns are minimized somewhat). UCF, Idaho, and New Mexico State have about the same amount of size, experience, and depth. UCF gets the edge talent-wise, New Mexico State coaching-wise, Idaho aggregate-wise. UCF does have the biggest Defensive Lineman BYU will face all season, with 6'3" 371 pound Sophomore Jose Jose. However, he's a JC transfer that may or may not have an impact on the middle in that game.
I would slate BYU's Defensive Line probably right around 4th on the list. The expectations for BYU's DL are a bit different in the 3-4 system, but I think the fact that they are more experienced than Ole Miss, at least among the starters, gives them a slight edge. BYU's depth took a hit with Thomas Bryson being declared ineligible for 2011, however, if Jordan Richardson is, in fact, recovered from his knee injury, he can help hold up the second line that is crucial to BYU's success. BYU expects maniacal effort from their DL, based on the fact that the back-ups can go in with no drop-off. If Richardson can't go, Manumaleuna is essentially all alone. I expect Putnam to be more consistent this season. If Putnam plays that on-again-off-again D this season, then I would drop BYU down to 5 on the list, or maybe even 6 below Hawaii.
Now that I've given you my thoughts on the OL/DL which ultimately decide how good a football team is, I'll go to QBs next, which is the position nearest and dearest to BYU fans' hearts.
Wednesday, July 13, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: O-Line
Looking at the Offensive Lines BYU will face this season, this is how I would rank them according to quality (I exclude Idaho State from the rankings as they are an FCS/I-AA school):
1) Ole Miss (averages 6'5" 331 pounds)
2) Utah (6'4" 304)
3) Texas (6'5" 301)
4) UCF (6'4" 302)
5) TCU (6'4" 300)
6) Oregon State (6'3" 292)
7) Idaho (6'5" 315)
8) Utah State (6'4" 296)
9) Hawaii (6'3" 298)
10) New Mexico State (6'5" 305)
11) San Jose State (6'4" 294)
In terms of starting experience, here is how they rank:
1) UCF (83 starts)
2) Ole Miss (76)
3) San Jose State (75)
4) Utah State (71)
5) Utah (62)
6) Idaho (56)
7) New Mexico State (55)
8) Oregon State (50)
9) Texas (36)
10) Hawaii (21, 20 by one player)
11) TCU (19)
A lot of people would disagree with my ranking of #2 and #3 and flip Utah and Texas (and put TCU in there simply b/c they won the Rose Bowl), but I think there is more to having a good offensive line than having highly touted players (which Texas does, TCU doesn't). Utah has more continuity and experience than either of the Texas schools. Experts continually underestimate Utah's O-Line, but it has been one of the reasons for its recent success (and invitation to the Pac 12). Four of Utah's starters are in their 3rd or 4th years in the program. The other is John Cullen, a highly touted returning starter who (though I was critical of how he allowed the pocket to collapse too much last season-though not allowing sacks) manhandled Greg Romeus last season. Texas will be starting 3 sophomores. TCU only has 19 returning starts from its 5 OL. Going into the season, I give the edge to experience over "potential," especially since it is very unproven talent.
A lot of people are higher on TCU's OL than I am as well. They only return 1 starter. The new starters have experience in the program (though not as starters), but they aren't particularly big. One moved over from DT (so he'll be an aggressive run-blocker, but may have the wrong kind of attitude for pass-blocking). Plus they won't have Andy Dalton, Jeremy Kerley, or Jimmy Young to make them look good, though they'll still have solid RBs to help out. They are just very inexperienced to rate them highly going into the year. By the end of October, it might be different, but on September 1, they aren't an elite group.
UCF and Idaho have big, experienced lines, and will be very good for smaller non-BCS schools. New Mexico State and San Jose State bring back a lot of experience. The bad news is: it's the same guys that they had last year. Hawaii, Utah State, and Oregon State aren't particularly big or experienced, but they have good coaching. They are kind of the wild cards this season. By the time BYU plays these lines, they could be great, but going into the season they have to be lower on the list.
As a side note, I would rank BYU as the 2nd best O-Line on this list. BYU averages 6'5" 314 pounds. They have a combined 107 starts. They are great at pass-blocking, they are great at run-blocking, they are great at getting off their blocks and making second blocks. However, it's tough to say they can match the physical presence and "nasty" factor of the Ole Miss line. Ole Miss has, arguably, the best Offensive Line in the, not arguably, most physical conference in America.
1) Ole Miss (averages 6'5" 331 pounds)
2) Utah (6'4" 304)
3) Texas (6'5" 301)
4) UCF (6'4" 302)
5) TCU (6'4" 300)
6) Oregon State (6'3" 292)
7) Idaho (6'5" 315)
8) Utah State (6'4" 296)
9) Hawaii (6'3" 298)
10) New Mexico State (6'5" 305)
11) San Jose State (6'4" 294)
In terms of starting experience, here is how they rank:
1) UCF (83 starts)
2) Ole Miss (76)
3) San Jose State (75)
4) Utah State (71)
5) Utah (62)
6) Idaho (56)
7) New Mexico State (55)
8) Oregon State (50)
9) Texas (36)
10) Hawaii (21, 20 by one player)
11) TCU (19)
A lot of people would disagree with my ranking of #2 and #3 and flip Utah and Texas (and put TCU in there simply b/c they won the Rose Bowl), but I think there is more to having a good offensive line than having highly touted players (which Texas does, TCU doesn't). Utah has more continuity and experience than either of the Texas schools. Experts continually underestimate Utah's O-Line, but it has been one of the reasons for its recent success (and invitation to the Pac 12). Four of Utah's starters are in their 3rd or 4th years in the program. The other is John Cullen, a highly touted returning starter who (though I was critical of how he allowed the pocket to collapse too much last season-though not allowing sacks) manhandled Greg Romeus last season. Texas will be starting 3 sophomores. TCU only has 19 returning starts from its 5 OL. Going into the season, I give the edge to experience over "potential," especially since it is very unproven talent.
A lot of people are higher on TCU's OL than I am as well. They only return 1 starter. The new starters have experience in the program (though not as starters), but they aren't particularly big. One moved over from DT (so he'll be an aggressive run-blocker, but may have the wrong kind of attitude for pass-blocking). Plus they won't have Andy Dalton, Jeremy Kerley, or Jimmy Young to make them look good, though they'll still have solid RBs to help out. They are just very inexperienced to rate them highly going into the year. By the end of October, it might be different, but on September 1, they aren't an elite group.
UCF and Idaho have big, experienced lines, and will be very good for smaller non-BCS schools. New Mexico State and San Jose State bring back a lot of experience. The bad news is: it's the same guys that they had last year. Hawaii, Utah State, and Oregon State aren't particularly big or experienced, but they have good coaching. They are kind of the wild cards this season. By the time BYU plays these lines, they could be great, but going into the season they have to be lower on the list.
As a side note, I would rank BYU as the 2nd best O-Line on this list. BYU averages 6'5" 314 pounds. They have a combined 107 starts. They are great at pass-blocking, they are great at run-blocking, they are great at getting off their blocks and making second blocks. However, it's tough to say they can match the physical presence and "nasty" factor of the Ole Miss line. Ole Miss has, arguably, the best Offensive Line in the, not arguably, most physical conference in America.
Tuesday, July 12, 2011
Is it September Yet?
Any Cougar fan not amazingly excited about the start of BYU's first season of Independent Football needs to go to byutv.org and check out the Media Day coverage. There is an information session, complete with Q&A, called State of the Program. The panel included Dave McCann (host of BYUTV's True Blue), Tom Holmoe, Dave Brown (VP of Acquisitions at ESPN), Bronco Mendenhall, and one of the big wigs at BYUTV, whose name escapes me.
There is some other content on there, including two True Blue shows, one from Spring Football, and the other a Media Day Special.
To close it out is a Legends Roundtable with Trevor Matich, LaVell Edwards, Bryan Kehl, Ty Detmer, and others. The replay for that only shows the last 35 minutes of the panel. I imagine the full show will be available in its entirety some time this week.
If you weren't excited yet, go check out some of the content. All available for free, on demand. This was also broadcast on ESPN3.com, the only "sporting event" on tap for today.
Certainly, any doubts about the viability of Independence could be answered watching the content. Any doubts about the future of the program, both immediate and medium-term, would also be erased. They have a good group of players heading into this new adventure. While I believe 2012 might be better in terms of the actual BYU team (there's still some youth in key places and the adjustment to being an Independent to worry about), there is certainly a lot of hope for the 2011 squad.
Certainly, as a fan, this was the "red meat" (or blue, I suppose) that I crave in the dog days of July, when there isn't much going on in the sporting world that is of interest to me (there's only so much MLB one can take). I'll do my best to get my thoughts out about each of BYU's 2011 opponents over the coming three weeks, but I have a few other obligations that are preventing me from really cranking it out as I have in previous summers.
There is some other content on there, including two True Blue shows, one from Spring Football, and the other a Media Day Special.
To close it out is a Legends Roundtable with Trevor Matich, LaVell Edwards, Bryan Kehl, Ty Detmer, and others. The replay for that only shows the last 35 minutes of the panel. I imagine the full show will be available in its entirety some time this week.
If you weren't excited yet, go check out some of the content. All available for free, on demand. This was also broadcast on ESPN3.com, the only "sporting event" on tap for today.
Certainly, any doubts about the viability of Independence could be answered watching the content. Any doubts about the future of the program, both immediate and medium-term, would also be erased. They have a good group of players heading into this new adventure. While I believe 2012 might be better in terms of the actual BYU team (there's still some youth in key places and the adjustment to being an Independent to worry about), there is certainly a lot of hope for the 2011 squad.
Certainly, as a fan, this was the "red meat" (or blue, I suppose) that I crave in the dog days of July, when there isn't much going on in the sporting world that is of interest to me (there's only so much MLB one can take). I'll do my best to get my thoughts out about each of BYU's 2011 opponents over the coming three weeks, but I have a few other obligations that are preventing me from really cranking it out as I have in previous summers.
Saturday, July 2, 2011
Happy Pac 12 Day, Utah Fans!
Utah got the gift/chance of a lifetime: an invitation to join a BCS conference. And not just any BCS conference: the Conference of Champions. Utah's access to the BCS National Championship Game increased, Utah's access to the Rose Bowl increased, and Utah's access to televisions across the nation increased. However, with that said, the road to the National Championship Game and Rose Bowl just got a lot tougher as well.
The road changed from a narrow, windy, dangerous mountain path where one false step means doom, to a four-lane highway with cops perched at every stop along the way where a lead foot might land you a ticket, but not prevent you from getting to your destination. They don't have to go 12-0 to get there, and if they go 12-0 they should absolutely get there. But then, even going 11-1 is going to be difficult. There are no Wyoming's, New Mexico's, or UNLV's in the Pac 12. Even lowly Washington State would finish around 5th or 6th in the MWC.
Can Utah compete in the Pac 12? In football, they can be competitive against every team in the conference, perhaps with the exception of an Oregon team (whom they wouldn't play until the Pac 12 Championship Game anyway), that looks poised to set up a little dynasty up north. Whether that translates into competing for a conference title is yet to be seen. While I believe the 2011 Utah Utes will not be as good as the 2010 Utes were, they still have a good shot to win the Pac 12 South [and in a one-game, winner-take-all Conference Championship Game, anything can happen]. Consider this: the Pac 12 South has one team that played in a bowl game last season. Utah does not have to play the top 2 schools from the North, and the team predicted to win the South by most "experts" (excluding USC, who is not eligible to play in the Conference Championship Game) is a perennially overrated Arizona State team that Utah gets at home, in altitude.
However, the big question for me is how will the 2011 Utes fare against a schedule much tougher than their 2010 one? If the schedule is harder and the team is not as good, it would seem that 10 wins would be a difficult thing to repeat. The good news is they may not need 10 wins in the weak South, with USC ineligible to "win" anyway.
The front seven on defense will be very formidable, even in the Pac 12 (the trenches is where BCS teams usually dominate non-BCS schools, but Utah is not little, slow, or any of the other weaknesses typically associated with non-BCS schools!). The secondary, however, will be tested in a traditionally pass-happy Pac 12. I would expect the front 7 to help the secondary in their progression by stopping opponents' rushing attacks and pressuring the QB in passing situations. With Robert Anae taking over at Offensive Coordinator at Arizona, Utah should be able to shut them down and knock out one of the two main competitors for the Pac 12 South.
Offensively is where the bigger issues will lie. They were able to lean on a lot of the littler defensive fronts in the MWC. They won't be able to push Pac 12 fronts around as easily. It is a very big and experienced O-Line, however, and if Cullen is really 20 pounds heavier at Left Tackle, the line should hold its own. They have experience, but little depth, in the passing game. They have a stud freshman RB, but how much will they have to rely on him and can he handle it if it is a lot? The addition of Norm Chow as Offensive Coordinator helps, and hurts, the Utes. He knows how to attack Pac 12 defenses, having spent so much time in the Pac 12. However, Pac 12 defenses also know Norm Chow very well. And he stunk up the place at UCLA the past few years, with much more gifted athletes than what he has at Utah this season.
I believe that Utah will surprise a lot of people in the Pac 12 with how talented they truly are (at least with most peoples' expectations being low for a "non-BCS" school entering the Pac 12), but, if they can't average 24 or more points/game, they are probably looking at a 6- or 7-win season. If they manage to get things rolling on O, there is no reason to believe they won't win 8 or 9 games and the Pac 12 South. However, the offense really could hold Utah back in 2011, unless the defense really shines. Most years I look at Utah's offense like I do BYU's defense: they look like they could be good, but they just don't ever seem to put it together, with the lone exception the 2003-2004 teams.
However, watch out for the Utes in 2012. I think this year's team looks a lot like the 2003 and 2007 Utes that set the stage for BCS runs in 2004 and 2008. They need 2011 to develop a little more depth at RB and WR, and to prepare the heirs on the DL and at LB to replace the 4 senior starters they will lose in the front seven after 2011. Were I a Ute fan, I wouldn't "give up" on the 2011 season by any means, but the 2012 season definitely has a good chance to be a memorable one.
The road changed from a narrow, windy, dangerous mountain path where one false step means doom, to a four-lane highway with cops perched at every stop along the way where a lead foot might land you a ticket, but not prevent you from getting to your destination. They don't have to go 12-0 to get there, and if they go 12-0 they should absolutely get there. But then, even going 11-1 is going to be difficult. There are no Wyoming's, New Mexico's, or UNLV's in the Pac 12. Even lowly Washington State would finish around 5th or 6th in the MWC.
Can Utah compete in the Pac 12? In football, they can be competitive against every team in the conference, perhaps with the exception of an Oregon team (whom they wouldn't play until the Pac 12 Championship Game anyway), that looks poised to set up a little dynasty up north. Whether that translates into competing for a conference title is yet to be seen. While I believe the 2011 Utah Utes will not be as good as the 2010 Utes were, they still have a good shot to win the Pac 12 South [and in a one-game, winner-take-all Conference Championship Game, anything can happen]. Consider this: the Pac 12 South has one team that played in a bowl game last season. Utah does not have to play the top 2 schools from the North, and the team predicted to win the South by most "experts" (excluding USC, who is not eligible to play in the Conference Championship Game) is a perennially overrated Arizona State team that Utah gets at home, in altitude.
However, the big question for me is how will the 2011 Utes fare against a schedule much tougher than their 2010 one? If the schedule is harder and the team is not as good, it would seem that 10 wins would be a difficult thing to repeat. The good news is they may not need 10 wins in the weak South, with USC ineligible to "win" anyway.
The front seven on defense will be very formidable, even in the Pac 12 (the trenches is where BCS teams usually dominate non-BCS schools, but Utah is not little, slow, or any of the other weaknesses typically associated with non-BCS schools!). The secondary, however, will be tested in a traditionally pass-happy Pac 12. I would expect the front 7 to help the secondary in their progression by stopping opponents' rushing attacks and pressuring the QB in passing situations. With Robert Anae taking over at Offensive Coordinator at Arizona, Utah should be able to shut them down and knock out one of the two main competitors for the Pac 12 South.
Offensively is where the bigger issues will lie. They were able to lean on a lot of the littler defensive fronts in the MWC. They won't be able to push Pac 12 fronts around as easily. It is a very big and experienced O-Line, however, and if Cullen is really 20 pounds heavier at Left Tackle, the line should hold its own. They have experience, but little depth, in the passing game. They have a stud freshman RB, but how much will they have to rely on him and can he handle it if it is a lot? The addition of Norm Chow as Offensive Coordinator helps, and hurts, the Utes. He knows how to attack Pac 12 defenses, having spent so much time in the Pac 12. However, Pac 12 defenses also know Norm Chow very well. And he stunk up the place at UCLA the past few years, with much more gifted athletes than what he has at Utah this season.
I believe that Utah will surprise a lot of people in the Pac 12 with how talented they truly are (at least with most peoples' expectations being low for a "non-BCS" school entering the Pac 12), but, if they can't average 24 or more points/game, they are probably looking at a 6- or 7-win season. If they manage to get things rolling on O, there is no reason to believe they won't win 8 or 9 games and the Pac 12 South. However, the offense really could hold Utah back in 2011, unless the defense really shines. Most years I look at Utah's offense like I do BYU's defense: they look like they could be good, but they just don't ever seem to put it together, with the lone exception the 2003-2004 teams.
However, watch out for the Utes in 2012. I think this year's team looks a lot like the 2003 and 2007 Utes that set the stage for BCS runs in 2004 and 2008. They need 2011 to develop a little more depth at RB and WR, and to prepare the heirs on the DL and at LB to replace the 4 senior starters they will lose in the front seven after 2011. Were I a Ute fan, I wouldn't "give up" on the 2011 season by any means, but the 2012 season definitely has a good chance to be a memorable one.
Happy Independence Day, BYU Fans!
Well, BYU is finally Independent in football, and part of the West Church, or Coast, Conference in basketball. My thoughts are essentially as follows:
1) BYU had to make this move for financial reasons. The MWC was inhibiting BYU financially, or rather, the MWC schools were cashing checks supplied to them by BYU, Utah, and TCU. While the details aren't public about how much BYU's TV deal is actually worth, it is likely worth between $6-$8M (just for home football and basketball games). The entire MWC TV deal was worth $12M, split evenly across all the schools in the conference. With Utah leaving for the good life of a BCS conference school, financially, BYU had to go get what it could on the market or risk Utah becoming the next BYU (i.e. the school for the majority of Mormon athletes). The fact that BYU, at least, quadrupled what they received from the MWC TV deal should show the MWC how valuable BYU was. BYU will stand to make much more money in the short, and long-run.
2) BYU had to make this move for their fanbase. There are 6 million members of the LDS church in the USA. Figure that half are inactive and don't care about the church. Figure half that are active don't care for BYU. Every ward I've ever been in (except for the wards in Utah County) has had roughly similar numbers to that. So I would estimate that in the United States there are roughly 1.5 million LDS BYU fans, perhaps a bit fewer, but there are certainly some non-LDS BYU fans. So, taken together, there are at least 1.5 million BYU fans. How many of them had the option of seeing every single BYU football game? Probably not even close to half. How many of them saw even half of BYU's basketball games? That number dwindles dramatically. Now, anyone who purchases a mid-level (or even lower in some places) cable or satellite package will have access to every single BYU football and basketball game, plus whatever other BYU sports they want to watch as well. With BYUTV's online streaming capabilities, every football and basketball game will be accessible online, though it may come on delay by a day or two in some cases. BYU fans will have much more access to view games in the short, and long-run.
3) BYU had to make this move from a competitive standpoint. In the MWC, BYU had 2 high-profile non-conference games each year, maximum (and that often meant getting a good bowl opponent too, which was rare). They also got either TCU or Utah, or both, in conference. At most, 4 out of their 12 games in a season got any real national attention. Next season, BYU will play several big-name schools. While the bottom of the schedule is certainly easier (the bottom of the WAC is easier than the bottom of the MWC), the top of the 2011 schedule looks a lot better than the 2010 one. The 2010 schedule was actually quite good, but it doesn't have the name recognition that the 2011 schedule does. In basketball, I think the same will probably be true. The bottom of the WCC is easier than the bottom of the MWC, but the top of the WCC is harder, at least when looking at it in terms of NCAA Tournament success (obviously the rivalry factor made MWC games difficult, but Gonzaga and St. Mary's have more national clout than New Mexico and SDSU). In non-conference, BYU may have a good chance to schedule better opponents without the crummy TV deal BYU could offer for a trip to Provo. [BYU won 45% of MWC championships over the last 12 years in all sports, that is domination across the board. I doubt there is a Division I-A school in the country that has won that many conference titles.] I fully anticipate the overall level of competition to improve in both the short, and long-run.
BYU had to make the move. Perhaps if Utah had stayed it wouldn't have been necessary. BYU and Utah could have fetched the MWC more money. They could have given the MWC more exposure. Those two things, together, may have helped the MWC in increased competitiveness. But Utah left, and BYU had to as well. I do not believe that BYU will join the Big XII or the Big East. I believe that BYU is planning on Independence in football and the WCC in basketball for the long haul. Even if the move ends up being somewhat of a flop, BYU will still be better off in 5 years than they would have been in the MWC over those 5 years.
1) BYU had to make this move for financial reasons. The MWC was inhibiting BYU financially, or rather, the MWC schools were cashing checks supplied to them by BYU, Utah, and TCU. While the details aren't public about how much BYU's TV deal is actually worth, it is likely worth between $6-$8M (just for home football and basketball games). The entire MWC TV deal was worth $12M, split evenly across all the schools in the conference. With Utah leaving for the good life of a BCS conference school, financially, BYU had to go get what it could on the market or risk Utah becoming the next BYU (i.e. the school for the majority of Mormon athletes). The fact that BYU, at least, quadrupled what they received from the MWC TV deal should show the MWC how valuable BYU was. BYU will stand to make much more money in the short, and long-run.
2) BYU had to make this move for their fanbase. There are 6 million members of the LDS church in the USA. Figure that half are inactive and don't care about the church. Figure half that are active don't care for BYU. Every ward I've ever been in (except for the wards in Utah County) has had roughly similar numbers to that. So I would estimate that in the United States there are roughly 1.5 million LDS BYU fans, perhaps a bit fewer, but there are certainly some non-LDS BYU fans. So, taken together, there are at least 1.5 million BYU fans. How many of them had the option of seeing every single BYU football game? Probably not even close to half. How many of them saw even half of BYU's basketball games? That number dwindles dramatically. Now, anyone who purchases a mid-level (or even lower in some places) cable or satellite package will have access to every single BYU football and basketball game, plus whatever other BYU sports they want to watch as well. With BYUTV's online streaming capabilities, every football and basketball game will be accessible online, though it may come on delay by a day or two in some cases. BYU fans will have much more access to view games in the short, and long-run.
3) BYU had to make this move from a competitive standpoint. In the MWC, BYU had 2 high-profile non-conference games each year, maximum (and that often meant getting a good bowl opponent too, which was rare). They also got either TCU or Utah, or both, in conference. At most, 4 out of their 12 games in a season got any real national attention. Next season, BYU will play several big-name schools. While the bottom of the schedule is certainly easier (the bottom of the WAC is easier than the bottom of the MWC), the top of the 2011 schedule looks a lot better than the 2010 one. The 2010 schedule was actually quite good, but it doesn't have the name recognition that the 2011 schedule does. In basketball, I think the same will probably be true. The bottom of the WCC is easier than the bottom of the MWC, but the top of the WCC is harder, at least when looking at it in terms of NCAA Tournament success (obviously the rivalry factor made MWC games difficult, but Gonzaga and St. Mary's have more national clout than New Mexico and SDSU). In non-conference, BYU may have a good chance to schedule better opponents without the crummy TV deal BYU could offer for a trip to Provo. [BYU won 45% of MWC championships over the last 12 years in all sports, that is domination across the board. I doubt there is a Division I-A school in the country that has won that many conference titles.] I fully anticipate the overall level of competition to improve in both the short, and long-run.
BYU had to make the move. Perhaps if Utah had stayed it wouldn't have been necessary. BYU and Utah could have fetched the MWC more money. They could have given the MWC more exposure. Those two things, together, may have helped the MWC in increased competitiveness. But Utah left, and BYU had to as well. I do not believe that BYU will join the Big XII or the Big East. I believe that BYU is planning on Independence in football and the WCC in basketball for the long haul. Even if the move ends up being somewhat of a flop, BYU will still be better off in 5 years than they would have been in the MWC over those 5 years.
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