BYU Offense vs. New Mexico Defense
Well, there are signs that BYU's offense is having fun and feeling good about their progress. They have demonstrated much more balance coming out of the bye week than they have in any game since the first game of the season. In the first quarter of the CSU game (before it got out of hand), they ran 9 times and threw 6. Against UNLV it was 17 runs to 9 passes. Against Wyoming, just before the bye, it was 15-4. So they have a more even play-calling early on. Heaps was 15-20 for 242 yards and 4 TDs against CSU and 19-31 with 294 yards and 2 TDs against UNLV. He is clearly more comfortable coming off of the bye.
New Mexico's defense is just plain bad: the worst BYU has played yet (and they scored 55 and 49 in the past two games against less bad defenses). They give up 245 rushing yards/game (120th), 218 passing yards/game (65th), 42.6 points/game (119th), get .9 sacks/game (117th), and allow opponents to convert 47% of third downs (108th). Their one strength is red zone defense where they are 31st in the country, allowing points on only 78% of opponents trips to the red zone. It must be all of the practice they get down there: they are last in the country in opponent trips to the red zone! New Mexico has only held one opponent to less than 30 points. Even in their lone win on the season they gave up 31 points.
BYU's Defense vs. New Mexico's Offense
It is tough to take a statistical comparison here: BYU's defense the last 5 games is a polar opposite of BYU's defense of the first 5 games. So, statistically speaking, it isn't a great defense for the season. But no defense in the country has been better the past 5 weeks against the run than BYU's, which includes games against SDSU and TCU (two of the better rushing attacks in the country). BYU hasn't given up any points in the first quarter since the lone first quarter field goal they gave up to TCU. Neither of the last two opponents has scored until the fourth quarter. In both of those games those teams were trailing by at least 42 points when they finally scored. It is an inspired defense right now.
The Lobo offense has not been good by any means, but it is not the complete train wreck that their defense has been. Over the past 4 games they have been averaging 22 points scored. The 6 games prior, they had been scoring 12.5 points. So it is getting better, but they still aren't moving the ball consistently. And 22 points is not very much compared to the 42 their defense is giving up.
Prediction
All signs would indicate that BYU should blow New Mexico out even worse than CSU or UNLV. It is at home, against an even worse opponent. But I would say that New Mexico always plays up for BYU, no matter how good BYU is or how bad New Mexico is. Knowing this is their last crack at BYU, I expect them to give it their all and play well. It will not be good enough to win, or even keep the game close, but it will be enough to frustrate Cougar fans expecting a wide and comfortable margin by the second quarter. BYU will probably focus more attention on the run game, where New Mexico has been the weakest. It takes longer to score that way, however, i.e. fewer points to be scored. That could open up the potential for big plays in the passing game, except for the expected gusty winds (25-40 mph) and precipitation. Inclement weather can be the great equalizer. BYU 35, New Mexico 13.
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