Conference Realignment and the 2011-2012 Bowls

Conferences Losing Teams The Big XII
The soon-to-be 10-team Big 12 has 8 bowl tie-ins.  This year they had 8 bowl-eligible teams.  They are losing only 1 of those teams.  Presumably, Texas will be back in bowl contention next season.  They also add a 9th conference game, meaning there is one less cupcake, non-conference game on each team's schedule.  I think we will see only 6 or 7 teams go bowling from the Big XII next season.  As long as they remain a 10-team league, they will not fill their 8 tie-ins, and could survive with 7.  Kansas, Iowa State, and Baylor will struggle to go bowling each year.

MWC
The soon-to-be 8-team MWC has 5 bowl tie-ins.  This year they had 5 bowl-eligible teams.  They are losing two of those teams: Utah and BYU.  They are gaining Boise State.  Each team gains one non-conference game, which will likely be used to either 1) get a payday game against a BCS conference school, or 2) get an easy opponent to get an extra win.  Boise State, TCU, and Air Force will make bowl games.  SDSU will if Hoke returns.  Where will the 5th bowl-eligible team come from: 3-9 CSU, 3-9 Wyoming, 2-11 UNLV, or 1-11 New Mexico?  And what if Hoke leaves SDSU?  In 2012, TCU leaves, but perennial bowl teams Nevada and Fresno State, and maybe Hawaii, join the mix.  They will probably need 5, or perhaps even 6, bowl games going forward.  Boise State, Air Force, Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii will go bowling each year.

WAC
The soon-to-be 8-team WAC has 4 bowl tie-ins.  This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams.  They are losing Boise State.  Nevada, Hawaii, and Fresno State should make bowl games.  Idaho, Louisiana Tech, or Utah State are viable candidates for next season, especially since Boise State falls off each of their schedules!  In 2012, there is not much of a conference left: if they do keep 8 teams, it will be 8 bad teams.  If Hawaii ends up leaving in 2012, they only have 7 teams currently slated for the conference: Idaho, Louisiana Tech, New Mexico State, San Jose State, Utah State, and newcomers Texas State and UT-San Antonio.  I don't see 4 bowl teams in that bunch.

Conferences Gaining Teams
Pac 10/12
The soon-to-be 12-team PAC 10 has 7 bowl tie-ins.  This year, they had 4 bowl-eligible teams.  They add only 1 bowl-eligible team in Utah.  USC is still on probation through next season.  Oregon State, Arizona State, California, and even presumably UCLA could get bowl-eligible next season.  It's very likely that 8 of the 12 will get bowl-eligible.  They'll need an extra spot going forward.

The Big Ten
The soon-to-be 12-team Big Ten has 8 bowl tie-ins.  This year, they had 8 bowl-eligible teams.  They add Nebraska, which should go to a bowl game every year in the Big Ten.  With the addition of Nebraska, however, there is one more quality conference game for 8 schools each season: they will likely remain an 8-bid league.  The Big Ten has shown some interest in becoming a 14-team league still, but I doubt we'll actually see that happen.

The Big East in 2012
They have 6 bowl tie-ins.  This season, they had 6 bowl-eligible teams.  Cincinnati did not, which went to BCS games each of the last two seasons.  It is tough to know exactly what will happen with expansion in the Big East, but if it stopped with TCU, they add a bowl-eligible team.  Though that probably comes at the expense of another team getting bowl-eligible.  If they stick with a 9-team league (not likely), they are probably OK with 6 bowl tie-ins, though it could not hurt to add a 7th.  Notre Dame is slated to fill empty slots should the Big East fall short.

Independents
BYU joins the ranks of the independents in FBS.  Navy has a tie-in.  Army has several contingency tie-ins.  Notre Dame has a special BCS package, and an agreement to fill empty bowls should the Big East fall short in getting enough bowl-eligible teams.  BYU has no tie-ins, no special BCS treatment: they have nothing.  They will need 8 wins every year to realistically have a shot to take an at-large for conferences that fall short of getting enough teams eligible.  Seeing that the WAC is soon to fall apart, and the Big XII will consistently be short in its quest for bowl bids, its possible the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, or a currently lower-tier Big XII Bowl (Texas Bowl, or even Holiday Bowl) would ink a contract with BYU.  Given how BYU built up the Holiday Bowl and the Vegas Bowl, I think a bowl will eventually take a chance with BYU, especially with ESPN on BYU's side, but conference realignment will have to continue to shake out and bowl contracts are going to have to expire.