Here's a look at the fine line between winning a division and finishing dead last for the Big 12 North (I live in Big 12 North country now, so I have to pay tribute).
1. Colorado wins the North if...they can get a good passing game going. Last year they ran the ball effectively early, until teams figured out they couldn't pass protect or throw even when they did pass protect. The fact that 2-year starter (and coach's son) Cody Hawkins only solidified his starting job because of an injury to the backup QB should say something about Daddy's confidence in him. They can compete in every game on their schedule, except at Texas.
1B. Colorado finishes last if...they can't replace the loss of two premier receivers and one tight end. These are just the transfers, not counting those lost to graduation. 3 of the top 4 receivers are gone from a team that only completed 55% of its passes. The "easy" games are on the road (if there is such a thing as an easy road game), so they can certainly lose those ones and the "tough" games are at home, which hasn't exactly proven to be a guaranteed win in recent history.
2. Iowa State wins the North if...everyone else forfeits their season. Seriously.
2B. Iowa State finishes last if...well, let's face it, this probably isn't an "if." They did have the good fortune of not having to fire and buyout Gene Chizik after this season b/c Auburn came and took him away. 3 wins would be great. 4 would be a miracle.
3. Kansas wins the North if...they can win games at home, away, AND neutral: Nebraska, Colorado, Missouri, respectively. Their only chance of winning the north is to beat all of their competition in the North. The nice part for them is the toughest opponent comes at home, the weakest on the road, and the middle one is at a neutral site. The bad part is their games against the Big 12 South: Oklahoma, at Texas Tech on Halloween, and at Texas. 1-2 there would be a miracle. Even if they beat NU, CU, and Mizzou, they will probably still need some outside help to win the North, probably in the form of Colorado beating Nebraska.
3B. Kansas finishes last if...they get caught looking ahead. They COULD win at Colorado, but it's right before Oklahoma. They could win at Texas Tech, but it's right before playing at in-state rival Kansas State. They could beat Nebraska at home, but that's right before playing at Texas, which comes right before playing biggest rival Missouri. Each of their BIG games is preceded by a losable game. The schedule is brutal enough (after their 5-0 start) that if they don't bring their A-game every week, that they could easily finish 5-7, even with a Nebraska-like non-conference schedule.
4. Kansas State wins the North if...they master and aggressively play the 4-2-5, the "spread" defense. I once thought the 3-3-5 was the answer to spread offenses, but the more and more I watch I am convinced the 4-2-5 will prove to be the ultimate stopper of the spread O, because you still have some beef to stop the run. K-State has installed this as their base defense, which will help against the likes of Kansas, Missouri, and Texas Tech, but will hurt it somewhat in games against teams like Nebraska, Colorado, and Oklahoma. The 4-2-5 allows you to improve your speed and coverage abilities, while still maintaining enough size to stop the running game. It does require two active LBs. Who knows how the "new" Bill Snyder offense will do, but they do appear to have a balanced attack: a star WR, a decent RB, a TE who can catch the rock, and a mobile QB.
4B. Kansas State finishes last if...Bill Snyder returns to his old ways (it certainly looks like a Bill Snyder schedule with two division I-AA schools and a Sun Belt opponent-give them some credit, they do only have 6 home games). Let's face it, the guy was forced out the first time after two years at the bottom of the standings in 2004 and 2005. He lost it as a coach and I don't think he got it back at the golf course the past few years.
5. Missouri wins the north if...the new offensive coordinator can repeat what Christensen did there. The running game should be solid. In 2008, when Derrick Washington rushed for 60 yards, Missouri was 9-0. When he had less than 60, they were 0-4. So he should be a focus of their offense. He better: they lost their top 3 QBs, top 2 WRs, and an All-American TE. They do have a few seniors on offense, particularly WRs who have been waiting their time who should be able to help ease in a new QB.
5B. Missouri finishes last if...nothing gels on offense. The defense did fairly well last year, and should be serviceable again this year. The offense will probably need about 28+ points per game to avoid finishing near the bottom of the league. Given what we saw from them last year, it would be hard to imagine they couldn't put out a decent product, but given what they lost (including their offensive coordinator), it isn't out of the question that they won't be able to score enough to keep up with some of the high-scoring teams on their schedule: Nebraska, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Kansas.
6. Nebraska wins the north if...they win at Kansas or Missouri. They've got some tough games on the road against the north: Missouri in early October, Kansas in mid-November, and rival Colorado after Thanksgiving. Realistically, if they win 2 of those 3, they will win the north. They get Texas Tech and Oklahoma at home.
6B. Nebraska finishes last if...the QB position never solidifies. They have 3 guys in the mix: a runner, a pocket passer, and a combo guy. But you know what they say about a 2 (or 3) QB system: if you have two QBs, you don't have any! It will be tough to go on the road in some hostile environments without a guy that can keep his composure.
