Bronco Mendenhall said, and many BYU fans perpetuated, that the minimum expectation for BYU is 10 wins. While Bronco claimed to be speaking holistically that EVERY year that is the expectation, I think BYU fans have that expectation heading into 2014. My question is: is that expectation justified?
BYU returns key players at every position on offense except WR (though avid BYU fans will say Mitch Matthews is healthy and Ross Apo has experience/potential), the defense has been steady over the past decade or so, the P improved a lot over last season, the coaching staff is a year more experienced and players/coaches have another year in Anae's system, and the schedule is significantly easier than 2013 when the team won 8 regular season games. All of those would indicate that BYU is due for a 2-3 win increase.
For a top 10 team, BYU's schedule is not at all daunting. A realistic expectation would be 11 wins and really probably 12. For a top 25 team, 10 wins is within reach and 11 is a distinct possibility as well. Outside of those two ranking ranges, yes, a top 40 team could still win 10 games or possibly as few as 7, which is probably about where BYU is situated in terms of ranking. What BYU's schedule is lacking is pace: BYU plays most of its difficult games early, and basically in a row. Most of BYU's games in September and October will be tests, maybe not AP Chem or the New York Bar Exam, but still not as simple as Utah's untimed and open book driver's license exam. Their November schedule should provide 4 relatively easy wins, if BYU is as good as it is most seasons.
In September, there is only 1 easy game and it comes after 3 tough games. UConn is not a tough team, but it is a tough opening game. It's on the road against a team with a new coach whose defenses have shut BYU down in games the 2 previous seasons. There are higher expectations by the fan base and who knows what kind of environment the game will have. BYU is the better team and should win the game. Although, historically, with only one exception that I can recall (Washington State 2012), BYU's offense under Bronco Mendenhall has struggled mightily in season openers. If the game is close late, who knows what can happen.
Then BYU travels to Texas who should be a good team. They also have a mind for revenge. Most teams head into Austin and come out on the wrong end of it. Teams that embarrassed Texas the year prior can expect to get the business from Longhorn players and fans.
5 days after Texas, BYU plays a team it needed all 60 minutes to subdue in 2013. That Houston team was starting a true freshmen with some other inexperienced players on offense. If BYU comes into that game with a loss already, who knows what the mindset of the players will be: many of them have publicly talked about an expectation of going undefeated. The problem with independence is if that is your expectation, what happens after you lose ONE? In addition, Houston could be a really good team.
The next week BYU beats Virginia. No way, no how does BYU lose that game. Riley Nelson could suit up and play QB for the Cougars and BYU wins that game.
The next slate of games puts BYU against Utah State, at UCF, Nevada, and at Boise State. BYU should be favored in at least 3 of those 4 games, depending on how September goes. None of those games is particularly easy. UCF has only lost 2 home games the past 3 seasons. Boise State is 67-3 at home since 2000. That spans 4 head coaches and 3 conferences. However, any team that goes on record to say that they believe they are one of the top teams in the country and have a good chance to go undefeated should perhaps only sweat a little bit on the road, but otherwise survive unscathed. Chuckie Keeton is amazing and over his 3 years at Utah State he has had some pretty good players supporting him, but he does not have the horses around him in 2014: this is nowhere near as good an Aggie team as they have had the previous few seasons. I suspect BYU will hit 300 rushing yards against Nevada.
I already stated my opinions about November: should be a cake walk if BYU plays at the same level it has in the previous decade.
The schedule, at first glance, is not difficult. There isn't a game on the schedule that I look at and say BYU absolutely has no chance. Most seasons there is a game or maybe two like that: Wisconsin, Florida State, TCU, Utah (apparently), etc. That doesn't exist: BYU shouldn't be overwhelmed in any game. However, looking at the collection of games, the location of games, the timing of games, it doesn't look like such an easy walk to get to 10 wins as an absolute minimum expectation. I can't say I EXPECT BYU to win at least 2 out of games at Texas, Houston, at UCF, and at Boise State. I expect BYU to compete and have a chance in the 2nd half of all of those games. However, I cannot honestly say I expect a 2-2 record there or better. In order to get to 10 wins, BYU has to win all of those other games that they should win (not a guarantee) and go 2-2 in those 4 which means at least one road win against a team that is probably on par with them, if not perhaps slightly better. Minimum expectation for me is not the 10 most BYU fans have, I am stuck at 9.
Unfortunately, with all of the undefeated talk that inevitably is BYU's offseason media chorus line, it's going to take 10 or 11 to keep fans Fully Invested. Enough talk of undefeated, show the fans. I do not believe a team has ever owed its fans an undefeated season more than BYU does in 2014 b/c they have been talking about it for 6 or 7 years now and have never even come close! If they don't do it in 2014, it isn't happening in 2015 with games at Nebraska, UCLA, and Michigan.
Minimum expectation: 9; minimum necessary to satisfy me as a fan: 12.
Thursday, July 24, 2014
Thursday, July 17, 2014
State of BYU Football, Part II: Defense
I wrote a little about what BYU's offense is going to expect in my last post. To summarize: Texas and UCF might have upper echelon defenses, besides that, BYU meets Boise State and Utah State who might have decent defenses and a bunch of teams that should struggle to keep BYU off the scoreboard. Yeah, I know, you read that big long post only to get a 2-sentence summary here. It happens. Now it's time to talk about what the defense might expect this season.
BYU is going to face some potentially elite offensive players this season, but I have a hard time seeing where they will face any elite offensive unit. Great players will make great plays in crucial situations, but great offenses make it more likely that those are game-clinching plays and not merely game-tying/winning plays. Luckily this means BYU should have a chance in every game. I'll go through position-by-position (except OL b/c that is always fluid).
Opposing QBs to Watch
BYU will face 7 teams they faced in 2013: Texas, Houston, Virginia, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, and Middle Tennessee. Only 2 of those teams did BYU's defense truly shut down (Virginia and Middle Tennessee) and 6 of those teams return a QB with significant game experience (MTSU the lone exception). Of BYU's other 4 FBS opponents, UConn, UNLV, and Cal all return QBs with experience. In college, QB experience counts for a lot, but being a good QB with experience is entirely different thing. Of the 10 returning QBs BYU will face this season, I know for sure that 2 of them are NFL QBs, maybe backups, but still they are good enough to make the league: Chuckie Keeton from Utah State and Cody Fajardo from Nevada.
I suspect that Jared Goff from Cal could blossom into an NFL QB if he can stay upright the next 2 or 3 seasons (and he'll have ample opportunity to throw the ball and get better under Sonny Dykes). I think David Ash (Texas) and Grant Hedrick (Boise State) will have good senior seasons but I don't think anyone is going to call them elite level QBs at any point during this season. So that's it, BYU will face 2 or 3 great QBs this year. Neither of the 2 known commodities have great RBs (Kendall Brock in Reno is solid but made statistically better by the system, and I hate using that word but I think it fits with him: he had a 30-yard run against BYU last year, but his other 13 carries only netted 26 yards), WRs, or OL to take the pressure off of them either. Goff has some very good WRs and his OL has to be better than last season (4 returning starters).
Opposing RBs to Watch
BYU will face a handful of pretty good RBs though, who can make their average QBs look better. Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray from Texas will run behind a pretty good OL. Brown has played BYU twice and Gray once. In those games they combined for 30 carries and 173 yards but I think they could duplicate that effort this season while adding some TDs to the line.
Kevin Parks from Virginia is a pretty good back on a pretty bad team. He had a pretty pedestrian day against BYU in 2013, as did the entire Virginia offense. I suspect he'll come close to 80/90 yards rushing against BYU and, if he stays healthy, will certainly top 1,000 for the 2nd straight season, which is an impressive feat for someone on such a bad team.
Jay Ajayi from Boise State has played BYU twice now. In 2013 against the Cougars he had 23 carries for 151 yards, in what was his 2nd best statistical performance in the course of a stellar season. 2 of these 4 are juniors, but I'd be shocked if all 4 didn't get a hard look from the NFL during the 2015 and 2016 drafts.
Opposing WRs/TEs to Watch
This is probably the position that BYU will see the most NFL-type players. They will also see a lot of guys who may not have NFL skills, but are plenty good enough to drive BYU fans crazy. Nearly every game, BYU's DBs will be tested:
Connecticut: Geremy Davis, a 6'3" 216 pound WR who had 1,000 yards receiving in 2013 on one of the worst offensive teams in the country.
Texas: Jaxon Shipley isn't the biggest or fastest guy out there, he's not his older brother Jordan who was a star with Colt McCoy, but he does a little bit of everything. Over his career he has caught the ball (159 receptions, 1,933 yards, 10 TDs, with ZERO quarterback play), run the ball, thrown the ball (BYU fans should remember a certain 3rd down completion he had in Austin against the Cougars in the 4th Q of the 2011 game), returned punts, returned kickoffs, and punted. Last year in Provo, he was a bright spot with 8 catches for 105 yards. With the kind of season he's capable of having, he could top 3,000 total yards for his career.
Houston: Deontay Greenberry is a baller. As a true freshman in 2012 he was 3rd on the team in yards before averaging over 100 yards/game in 2013. He "only" had 11 catches for 68 yards against BYU but had 2 TDs, both times giving Houston leads (the 2nd one with 5 minutes left in the game).
Virginia and Utah State: Well, I said nearly every game. Though I think Brandon Swindall from Utah State will have a breakout year. He was clutch on a couple occasions for USU in 2013.
UCF: Blake Bortles won't be throwing the ball this year, but the Knights have 3 very good WRs. In the 3 or 4 games I saw of them last season, a different one stepped up each time. It's dangerous to play a team where any of 3 guys who could legitimately have a 100-yard game.
Nevada: Richy Turner is a pretty solid slot-type WR who could have a 1,000-yard season.
Boise State: Matt Miller set all kinds of records as a freshman WR in 2011 at Boise State and has gotten better each season. He had 5 100-yard games in 2013 (with 1 a 200-yard game). He's big. He's got great hands. He understands the game. He'll be tough for BYU, especially since he has an experienced/decent QB, a great RB, a potentially decent OL, and offensive coaches that are very familiar with BYU's D (Bryan Harsin was OC at Boise State and Texas in games against BYU and Mike Sanford was UNLV's Coach during Bronco's first 5 seasons at the helm). Shane Williams-Rhodes had 10 catches for 95 yards against BYU last year and could push for 1,000 yards too.
UNLV (sorry, no Middle Tennessee/Savannah State guy makes the cut): Devante Davis is a highlight reel kind of guy. I don't know how good the rest of UNLV's team will be, but this guy can play. H may be the best WR BYU plays all year.
California: Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs are smaller guys, which hurt them a little bit in Pac 12 play (along with all the sacks Cal surrendered), but they are big enough to use their speed advantage against BYU's DBs. This is a wide open, gun-slinging system at Cal, these guys could both have big days against BYU, as could a handful of the other 6'2" or 6'3" guys that got experience last season.
What Will BYU Do?
BYU's D faces some good individual players. Texas is probably the best offense they'll face from a talent perspective, Boise State may give BYU's D the most trouble, and Cal will probably throw for 400 yards against BYU. Still think the absolute minimum expectation is 10 wins? If the D can contend with Texas' RBs, Boise's experienced O, and UCFs WRs, then yes, absolutely. If not, take it down a notch to 7or 8...
BYU is going to face some potentially elite offensive players this season, but I have a hard time seeing where they will face any elite offensive unit. Great players will make great plays in crucial situations, but great offenses make it more likely that those are game-clinching plays and not merely game-tying/winning plays. Luckily this means BYU should have a chance in every game. I'll go through position-by-position (except OL b/c that is always fluid).
Opposing QBs to Watch
BYU will face 7 teams they faced in 2013: Texas, Houston, Virginia, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, and Middle Tennessee. Only 2 of those teams did BYU's defense truly shut down (Virginia and Middle Tennessee) and 6 of those teams return a QB with significant game experience (MTSU the lone exception). Of BYU's other 4 FBS opponents, UConn, UNLV, and Cal all return QBs with experience. In college, QB experience counts for a lot, but being a good QB with experience is entirely different thing. Of the 10 returning QBs BYU will face this season, I know for sure that 2 of them are NFL QBs, maybe backups, but still they are good enough to make the league: Chuckie Keeton from Utah State and Cody Fajardo from Nevada.
I suspect that Jared Goff from Cal could blossom into an NFL QB if he can stay upright the next 2 or 3 seasons (and he'll have ample opportunity to throw the ball and get better under Sonny Dykes). I think David Ash (Texas) and Grant Hedrick (Boise State) will have good senior seasons but I don't think anyone is going to call them elite level QBs at any point during this season. So that's it, BYU will face 2 or 3 great QBs this year. Neither of the 2 known commodities have great RBs (Kendall Brock in Reno is solid but made statistically better by the system, and I hate using that word but I think it fits with him: he had a 30-yard run against BYU last year, but his other 13 carries only netted 26 yards), WRs, or OL to take the pressure off of them either. Goff has some very good WRs and his OL has to be better than last season (4 returning starters).
Opposing RBs to Watch
BYU will face a handful of pretty good RBs though, who can make their average QBs look better. Malcolm Brown and Johnathan Gray from Texas will run behind a pretty good OL. Brown has played BYU twice and Gray once. In those games they combined for 30 carries and 173 yards but I think they could duplicate that effort this season while adding some TDs to the line.
Kevin Parks from Virginia is a pretty good back on a pretty bad team. He had a pretty pedestrian day against BYU in 2013, as did the entire Virginia offense. I suspect he'll come close to 80/90 yards rushing against BYU and, if he stays healthy, will certainly top 1,000 for the 2nd straight season, which is an impressive feat for someone on such a bad team.
Jay Ajayi from Boise State has played BYU twice now. In 2013 against the Cougars he had 23 carries for 151 yards, in what was his 2nd best statistical performance in the course of a stellar season. 2 of these 4 are juniors, but I'd be shocked if all 4 didn't get a hard look from the NFL during the 2015 and 2016 drafts.
Opposing WRs/TEs to Watch
This is probably the position that BYU will see the most NFL-type players. They will also see a lot of guys who may not have NFL skills, but are plenty good enough to drive BYU fans crazy. Nearly every game, BYU's DBs will be tested:
Connecticut: Geremy Davis, a 6'3" 216 pound WR who had 1,000 yards receiving in 2013 on one of the worst offensive teams in the country.
Texas: Jaxon Shipley isn't the biggest or fastest guy out there, he's not his older brother Jordan who was a star with Colt McCoy, but he does a little bit of everything. Over his career he has caught the ball (159 receptions, 1,933 yards, 10 TDs, with ZERO quarterback play), run the ball, thrown the ball (BYU fans should remember a certain 3rd down completion he had in Austin against the Cougars in the 4th Q of the 2011 game), returned punts, returned kickoffs, and punted. Last year in Provo, he was a bright spot with 8 catches for 105 yards. With the kind of season he's capable of having, he could top 3,000 total yards for his career.
Houston: Deontay Greenberry is a baller. As a true freshman in 2012 he was 3rd on the team in yards before averaging over 100 yards/game in 2013. He "only" had 11 catches for 68 yards against BYU but had 2 TDs, both times giving Houston leads (the 2nd one with 5 minutes left in the game).
Virginia and Utah State: Well, I said nearly every game. Though I think Brandon Swindall from Utah State will have a breakout year. He was clutch on a couple occasions for USU in 2013.
UCF: Blake Bortles won't be throwing the ball this year, but the Knights have 3 very good WRs. In the 3 or 4 games I saw of them last season, a different one stepped up each time. It's dangerous to play a team where any of 3 guys who could legitimately have a 100-yard game.
Nevada: Richy Turner is a pretty solid slot-type WR who could have a 1,000-yard season.
Boise State: Matt Miller set all kinds of records as a freshman WR in 2011 at Boise State and has gotten better each season. He had 5 100-yard games in 2013 (with 1 a 200-yard game). He's big. He's got great hands. He understands the game. He'll be tough for BYU, especially since he has an experienced/decent QB, a great RB, a potentially decent OL, and offensive coaches that are very familiar with BYU's D (Bryan Harsin was OC at Boise State and Texas in games against BYU and Mike Sanford was UNLV's Coach during Bronco's first 5 seasons at the helm). Shane Williams-Rhodes had 10 catches for 95 yards against BYU last year and could push for 1,000 yards too.
UNLV (sorry, no Middle Tennessee/Savannah State guy makes the cut): Devante Davis is a highlight reel kind of guy. I don't know how good the rest of UNLV's team will be, but this guy can play. H may be the best WR BYU plays all year.
California: Chris Harper and Bryce Treggs are smaller guys, which hurt them a little bit in Pac 12 play (along with all the sacks Cal surrendered), but they are big enough to use their speed advantage against BYU's DBs. This is a wide open, gun-slinging system at Cal, these guys could both have big days against BYU, as could a handful of the other 6'2" or 6'3" guys that got experience last season.
What Will BYU Do?
BYU's D faces some good individual players. Texas is probably the best offense they'll face from a talent perspective, Boise State may give BYU's D the most trouble, and Cal will probably throw for 400 yards against BYU. Still think the absolute minimum expectation is 10 wins? If the D can contend with Texas' RBs, Boise's experienced O, and UCFs WRs, then yes, absolutely. If not, take it down a notch to 7or 8...
Tuesday, July 1, 2014
The State of BYU Football, Part I
After watching 3 lackadaisical performances by BYU last season, 2 in person (Wisconsin and Notre Dame), I felt as though we were witnessing the beginning of the end of BYU football. Some people, especially Ute fans, believed that started long ago. Maybe it did. Since Jake Heaps and Riley Nelson arrived on the scene, BYU has never really competed week in and week out, regardless of their schedule. As conferences continued to realign, no one of consequence ever called BYU's number, except to schedule an occasional 2-for-1 football series. Independence improved BYU's standing more than being in the MWC, but, as even Bronco admitted this offseason, independence only helps if it lifts BYU to a power conference.
So the power conferences continue to try to consolidate their power. They plucked most of the best teams from outside their conferences already. BYU continues to be on the outside of the entire equation though. The only way for BYU to change that is to win. Win big. Win a lot. Win on big stages. Unfortunately for BYU, beating Idaho State by 40 doesn't count, winning 8 games doesn't count as "a lot", and ESPN in and of itself is not a big enough stage.
BYU needs to demolish about half the teams on its 2014 schedule and it needs to beat most of the remaining teams. 10 wins, at a minimum, this season will keep BYU in any kind of national relevance. Just looking at the schedule, BYU should be able to score 40+ points against Virginia, UNLV, and Savannah State. They should top 30 points against Connecticut, Houston, Nevada, Middle Tennessee, and Cal. Texas, Utah State, UCF, and Boise State are the only teams that should have any ability to slow BYU down. Period. Looking even deeper than that, Texas and UCF are the only potentially great defenses they will face. If last season is any indication how BYU will fare in those games, then I'd expect between 13-17 points from BYU.
BYU, on paper, should put up points in bunches. They should be able to drive the ball consistently against just about anyone. They should be able to break big plays too with Taysom and Jamaal. If any of the WRs ends up being halfway decent, they should get some big plays in the passing game too. They absolutely have the experience to convert TDs in the red zone. And they need to do it in all 12 games, not just in 8 or 9. They need to win and win convincingly against the best teams on their schedule. BYU lost 3 games last season where it had more yards than its opponents (Virginia, Utah, and Washington) and 2 of those teams didn't even make bowl games. Against Washington and Virginia, BYU had 154 and 139 yards more of offense, respectively, and couldn't get a win.
If BYU wants to be a great team, they need to be able to score against good defenses on the road. They only play 2 such games this season. If BYU wants to win those games they have to find some way to put up at least 20 points. Looking ahead to the 2015 schedule, BYU still has a chance to make noise in the future, but if BYU can't do it this season, it won't matter how tough those future schedules are, BYU won't stand a chance. The time to make a splash is now. There is no tomorrow for BYU. The 2014 Cougars have the opportunity to resurrect the program, if they don't, they may lose their chance, and their fan base, forever.
So the power conferences continue to try to consolidate their power. They plucked most of the best teams from outside their conferences already. BYU continues to be on the outside of the entire equation though. The only way for BYU to change that is to win. Win big. Win a lot. Win on big stages. Unfortunately for BYU, beating Idaho State by 40 doesn't count, winning 8 games doesn't count as "a lot", and ESPN in and of itself is not a big enough stage.
BYU needs to demolish about half the teams on its 2014 schedule and it needs to beat most of the remaining teams. 10 wins, at a minimum, this season will keep BYU in any kind of national relevance. Just looking at the schedule, BYU should be able to score 40+ points against Virginia, UNLV, and Savannah State. They should top 30 points against Connecticut, Houston, Nevada, Middle Tennessee, and Cal. Texas, Utah State, UCF, and Boise State are the only teams that should have any ability to slow BYU down. Period. Looking even deeper than that, Texas and UCF are the only potentially great defenses they will face. If last season is any indication how BYU will fare in those games, then I'd expect between 13-17 points from BYU.
BYU, on paper, should put up points in bunches. They should be able to drive the ball consistently against just about anyone. They should be able to break big plays too with Taysom and Jamaal. If any of the WRs ends up being halfway decent, they should get some big plays in the passing game too. They absolutely have the experience to convert TDs in the red zone. And they need to do it in all 12 games, not just in 8 or 9. They need to win and win convincingly against the best teams on their schedule. BYU lost 3 games last season where it had more yards than its opponents (Virginia, Utah, and Washington) and 2 of those teams didn't even make bowl games. Against Washington and Virginia, BYU had 154 and 139 yards more of offense, respectively, and couldn't get a win.
If BYU wants to be a great team, they need to be able to score against good defenses on the road. They only play 2 such games this season. If BYU wants to win those games they have to find some way to put up at least 20 points. Looking ahead to the 2015 schedule, BYU still has a chance to make noise in the future, but if BYU can't do it this season, it won't matter how tough those future schedules are, BYU won't stand a chance. The time to make a splash is now. There is no tomorrow for BYU. The 2014 Cougars have the opportunity to resurrect the program, if they don't, they may lose their chance, and their fan base, forever.
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