Wednesday, July 28, 2010

My Thoughts on the Media Poll, Part I

Well, since I was able to accurately predict the preseason poll with one exception, there couldn't have been too many surprises.  Here are my thoughts on why teams were ranked where they are and what questions they have coming into the season.

1.  TCU.  This is completely expected (and deserved!).  They were clearly the best team last year and they are bringing back a boatload of starters, more so than any other team in the conference.  They have a starting QB who has won 29 games as a starter (most in the nation) in Andy Dalton.  They have one of the most dynamic punt and kickoff returners in the country in Jeremey Kerley.  They always seem to have a defense that ranks in the top 5 nationally.  The only concern about TCU: can they handle the hype?  With no time to think about big games last year against BYU and Utah, they dominated.  With a month-plus to think about the Fiesta Bowl, they looked like a deer in the headlights.  Several years ago, they were coming off a strong season, preseason hype to the max, etc. and a rebuilding BYU team beat them by 14 in Fort Worth (and it wasn't even that close), on their way to a disappointing finish.  Again, can they handle the hype?  We'll see.  I believe they can and they will.
2. Utah.  Utah is ahead of BYU for 3 reasons: 1) speed, 2) returning QB, and 3) Pac 10 invitation.  All 3 are good reasons to assume Utah will finish higher than BYU in the standings.  Right now, Utah is the better team.  In November, they still might be the better team.  They certainly can recruit and develop NFL talent, consistently having as many guys drafted as the rest of the MWC combined.  First off, however, with all that superior talent, it hasn't necessarily turned into wins on the field: they have only managed 1 conference championship in the same time period TCU and BYU have each had 2.  They have only finished the season ranked in the top 25 twice in that period, with BYU managing that 4 times and TCU 3 times.  Secondly, they lost a lot: their top 6 tacklers on defense, two of the best OLs in program history, and several legitimate deep threat WRs, who were capable of playing at the next level.  Non-BCS programs don't just replace 6 NFL draft picks one year, after losing 4 the previous year.  (Of course, theoretically Utah isn't a non-BCS program anymore.)  Add to that a schedule that stands to be one of the toughest for a competitive non-BCS school, including road matchups at Iowa State, Air Force, Wyoming, and Notre Dame, with Pitt, TCU, and BYU all coming to Rice-Eccles Stadium.  Between October 30th and November 27th, they play at Air Force, TCU, at Notre Dame, at San Diego State, and rival BYU (in perhaps the final BYU-Utah game ever).  I'd like to see Alabama go through that stretch and come out smelling like roses on the other side (not that they wouldn't go undefeated, I'm not an idiot, the SEC is extremely loaded and they ran it undefeated including a championship game against Florida, just to point out that even the mighty Crimson Tide would struggle through that).
Realistically, to have Utah at 2 and BYU at 3 is more of a default pick.  It speaks more to the LACK of depth in the league than to the quality of these two programs. Both schools have some major holes to fill as highlighted above for Utah, and below for BYU. However, there isn't any program in the conference, with the exception of Air Force, that has done enough the past few years to jump these schools, even in a rebuilding year.
3.  BYU.  No surprise that they are 3rd.  They haven't finished lower than third in 5 years under Bronco Mendenhall.  In fact, they've only finished lower than second once.  Even in a rebuilding year, of which they have had two in the Bronco Era (well, Year One was more of a building year than a REbuilding year), they are still competitive relative to the rest of the league.  They lost their all-time winningest QB (Max Hall), their all-time leading rusher (Harvey Unga), their all-time receptions leader (Dennis Pitta), their 2nd all-time in sacks (Jan Jorgensen), and the most visible player in BYU history (Coleby Clawson: don't tell me you didn't see his hit on Bradford 1,000 times last season!).  Oh, and they lost their starting FB, C, backup game-breaker TE, and 3 of the 4 starting LBs.  What is left to bring back?!?  Well, 4 of 5 linemen, plus 3 experienced/talented ones that missed last year because of injury.  All of their receivers.  3 of 4 guys in the secondary.  The biggest playmaking LB from last year's team.  Plus they have had some of their better recruiting classes ever the past three years.  Plus, several potential pieces are back from missions.  That's still a lot of POTENTIAL, i.e. question marks, and precisely why they are preseason #3.
4.  Air Force.  Personally, I am much higher on Air Force than this.  Given their continued solid performance against the bottom 5 in the league, all they really need to do is beat EITHER Utah or BYU, and they could compete for #2 in the league (they just need the one they don't beat to lose to somebody else).  Given the experience they have coming back in the secondary and on offense, the rebuilding the Utes and Cougars are doing, and the fact that both travel to Colorado Springs, this is the year (if it's ever going to happen, that is).  But again, because they haven't beaten BYU in the Bronco Era and only have 1 win against Utah in the Whit Era, you have to put them behind both of them in the preseason polls.  Well, at least the "experts" do.  I don't, and I can guarantee you that I won't have them behind both of them when I finally make my predictions, in about two weeks or so for those keeping track.  The biggest question mark for them is the same one we have every year: size on the defensive front.  The Air Force usually has 4 guys over 260 pounds in the entire academy: 1 of them doesn't play football and the other 3 are on the O-Line!  However, they are still a perennial 7-8 win team that goes to and competes well in a bowl game.  Given that BYU and Utah are down, maybe they can push up into the 9-win category and swoop into 2nd: that's all it would take.  They are one win away!

The bottom 5 to come later.

Boise State vs. Utah

Well, this is Utah's last MWC Media Days.  It is the last time Boise State will not attend MWC Media Days for the foreseeable future.  A lot has been made of the MWC possibly becoming a BCS conference.  So here's a look at how these two teams impact that.

First, all of Utah's credentials from this BCS cycle go with it to the Pac 10, including their BCS-Busting season 2 years ago, last year's top-25 finish, and whatever happens this year (perhaps another top-25 finish, perhaps a miraculous undefeated run and top-10 finish, or maybe even nothing).  Second, all of Boise State's come with it to the MWC, including the undefeated top-10 finish two years ago, last year's #6 ranking and BCS game against TCU, and whatever happens this year (which by all accounts will be another top-10 finish, even at 11-1).

The BCS announced it's formula for BCS Conference inclusion.  You are supposed to be in the top 6 in each of these three categories.  However, you can be granted an exemption on one of the rules, if you qualify in the other two, and the BCS decides it's OK.

1: Average finish of your highest-ranked team in the BCS standings.  The MWC loses Utah's #6 ranking from 2008, which is replaced by Boise State's #9.  This is currently a slight decrease, enough to move them from 3rd place of all conferences to 4th place.  However, if Boise State manages to finish in the top 5 either this year or next year, they would make up for the current drop.  Even with the slight dip resulting from 2008, the MWC is still ahead of the Big East, Big Ten, and ACC.  The Big Ten stands to improve upon theirs this year, while the Big East certainly will not and the ACC may not either depending on Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, or Florida State.

2. Average finish of all teams in your conference.  This is one where the MWC currently ranks a distant 7th.  Boise State, over the 4-year period, should be better than Utah (currently Boise State averages 7.5 and Utah averages 14.5, with Boise State expected to do better both this year and next year).  However, neither of them individually does enough to push the MWC anywhere close to 6th.  (With both teams in the MWC, it would be much closer, but still no cigar.)

3. A somewhat convoluted measure of number of teams finishing in the top 25 of the BCS standings, adjusted for size of conference.  Both Boise State and Utah have finished in the top 25 both years so far and the MWC stays at 9 teams, so there is no difference whatsoever in the two teams for this rule.  However, Boise State appears much more likely to finish in the top 25 the next two years than Utah does (or would if they stayed in the MWC).  It seems unlikely that the MWC will drop enough to fall behind the Big East or ACC in this one, no matter how good of years they have, assuming that at least 2 MWC teams finish in the top 25 each of the next two years.

It should be pointed out that the MWC, with Boise State, without Utah, is currently 4th in rule 1, 7th in rule 2, and 3rd in rule 3.  The ACC is 7th, 2nd, and 7th, respectively.  The Big East is 5th, 3rd, and 6th, respectively.  Interesting to note that the MWC has the best average of the 3 and that the ACC, not the Big East, would seem to be more in jeopardy of losing its AQ status, should such a thing ever happen.

The MWC's hopes to gain AQ status rest, not in the arrival of Boise State (nor were they crushed with the departure of Utah), but in the bottom of the league.  CSU and Wyoming have both won bowl games the past two years, but another 3-9 season from CSU or 1-11 from New Mexico simply won't do.  You can't have 2 or 3 teams in the bottom 100 and be a BCS league.  If the bottom three improve the next two years, they may not even need an exemption on rule 2.  Realistically though (since that is unlikely to happen), the question is: if the ACC doesn't qualify in two of the rules, why should they remain over the MWC, which doesn't qualify in only one?

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

MWC Media Days

Time for the annual pick-it-way-wrong MWC Media Days.  I hear even Graham Watson might show up and actually cover one of the conferences she's been assigned (and gets paid) to cover.

Well, this is what I expect to see from the media poll on the MWC:

1. TCU (it should be unanimous: if it's not, it's because there's a Ute homer in the crowd, drinking the Pac 10 Kool-Aid)
2. Utah
3. BYU
4. Air Force
5. Wyoming
6. SDSU
7. UNLV
8. CSU
9. New Mexico

Pre-Season Offensive Player of the Year: Andy Dalton, QB, TCU
Pre-Season Defensive Player of the Year: Reggie Rembert, DB, Air Force

Those are just my thoughts on what it's going to be, not on what it will actually end up being...once fall camp hits and we know who the starting QBs will be at BYU, CSU, and UNM, as well as how some of the freshmen will fit into the depth chart at all of the schools, I'll make my actual predictions for the conference standings.  I won't bestow any Pre-Season POY honors: they don't mean diddly!

Saturday, July 24, 2010

BYU Schedule Preview, Part II

Well, this should be one of the easier 3-game stretches on BYU's schedule, weeks 4-6 with Nevada, then at Utah State, then hosting San Diego State.  It couldn't have come at a better time after what will be the most difficult 3-week stretch of their season the first three weeks.

Week 4: Nevada, Saturday, September 25th, 4pm (MT), on the Mtn. Network:
Previous Game: California
Following Game: @ UNLV
Two Games Later: San Jose State
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: Very high.  They have a Pac 10 school the week before.  Not a great Pac 10 school, but there is still a reason they are a BCS team.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: As high as anybody BYU will face all season.  Their next game is at in-state rival UNLV, followed by their first conference game.

BYU should win this game.  Period.

Week 5: Utah State, Friday October 1st, 6pm (MT), on ESPN and ESPNHD:
Previous Game: @ SDSU
Following Game: @ Louisiana Tech
Week After That: Bye
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: Not great.  SDSU is not currently a very physical football team.  The one thing to watch here is that they are AT San Diego State, in a night game on Saturday.  This is a Friday night game.  Best case scenario, Utah State gets home early Sunday morning.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: Not in a million years.  One, this is Utah State and they want to beat BYU more than any game on their schedule.  Two, Gary Andersen is a former Utah Assistant, he was there at the height of their "School Down South" mentality.  He hates BYU.  With a passion.  Even more than most Aggie fans do!

BYU should win this game.  But it will be VERY physical and they probably won't score a lot of points.

Week 6: San Diego State, Saturday, October 9th, 4pm (MT), on the Mtn. Network:
Previous Week: Bye
Following Game: Air Force
Two Games Later: @ New Mexico
Chances They Are Beat Up Coming Into BYU: none.  They are coming off a bye.  If you can't heal up by then, you aren't going to be healthy all season.
Chances They Are Overlooking BYU: none.  Especially after BYU beat them TWICE in basketball last year.  While the Air Force game might be big the next week, it doesn't compare to the BYU game.

BYU should win this game.  Easy.  It's an easy opponent.  It's homecoming weekend.  They have an extra day off with the Friday night game the week before.  The only issue: next week is at TCU.  Don't get caught overlooking a Hoke-coached team with a lot of speed...

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Countdown: 6 Weeks

Tickets have gone on sale across the country.  Media Days have already started.  Camps are going to be starting in the next 3 weeks.  Here's part I of a post about BYU's schedule.

We all know scheduling is important: you don't want too many difficult games in a row, you don't want any trap games, and you would love a bye week before a big game.  Here's a look at BYU's first three opponents, week by week, and what the schedule looks like for them.

Week 1: Washington
Previous Game: N/A
Next Game: Syracuse at home.
Following Game: Nebraska at home.
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: not much.  Fall camp is designed to allow time to overcome early nicks associated with putting pads on for the first time, and still be ready for Week One.
Chances they are looking past BYU: none.  With a former BYU QB leading the Huskies, you can be they will be ready to play.  With Jake Locker hopeful for a nice start to a potential Heisman campaign, attaining bowl eligibility in his final season, and a possible number one overall draft pick, he'll be looking for that green front 7 of BYU's to give him some running room.

Week 2: at Air Force
Previous Game: Northwestern State.
Next Game: at Oklahoma.
Following Game: at Wyoming.
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: not likely.  They scheduled a cream puff to get some game experience with lesser risk of injury.
Chances they are looking past BYU: slim.  While OU is a huge game looming the week after, getting one of the big three at home, early in the year, with a young defense is even bigger for the Falcons.  They can move up the conference pecking order with a win.  They can confuse a young BYU front 7 with their dynamic rushing attack (and play-action passing game) and can disrupt BYU's offensive flow, led by a QB likely to only have had ONE collegiate start, with their crazy schemes on D.

Week 3: at Florida State
Previous Game: at Oklahoma
Next Game: Wake Forest
Following Game: at Virginia
Chances they are beat up coming into BYU game: quite likely.  While the Big XII is generally known for their aerial passing attacks, Oklahoma is one of the exceptions to that stereotypical soft style of play.  They play a very physical brand of football.  With Christian Ponder being such a high-profile QB, OU's D will do everything they can to get after him.  OU's O-Line is also mammoth and could wear down Florida State's front 7.  BYU has a fairly large O-Line of their own to follow up with.
Chances they are looking past BYU: 50%.  After smoking BYU in Provo last year (and putting up over 50 points in the process), they may not think much of this BYU team that is younger, less experienced, and with even less size on defense.  They start into conference play the following week with Wake Forest.  Also factor in that BYU could easily come into the game 0-2, and is unlikely to be ranked, even if they are 2-0, and they might just circle this one as a win.  I'm sure most Seminole fans already have!

Next 3 games to come later in the week.

Monday, July 19, 2010

The Mailbag

I have created an e-mail address to which you can send your questions, ideas for topics, or any other suggestions you might have. You may also send in any "guest" postings you would like me to add to the blog (in case your thoughts don't fit in a single comment). The e-mail address is moknowssports@gmail.com (keep in mind there are TWO s's in a row for Mo Knows Sports).

Friday, July 16, 2010

Da Bears Da Bears Da Bears

Congrats to Harvey Unga, who now has a chance to be a running back on the Chicago Bears.  They arguably have the greatest tradition of running backs in the history of the game.  To even be considered is an honor.  And the fact that they were willing to lose a future draft pick to get him by taking him in the "supplemental draft," is an even greater honor.  Good luck to Harvey as he tries to move forward after his unfortunate life experience that forced him out of college into the NFL a year earlier than he wanted.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Once upon a time

I made a lot of fearless predictions last year and did OK...so, let's try again.

Prediction #1 about the upcoming football season:

The Mountain West Conference will have a winning record in week one, at 5-4 or better.  This is actually a bigger stretch than you might think, considering how easy week one usually is.  The conference is playing some good teams.  It's kind of a tale of two sides though: the big dogs in the conference are playing big competition.  Those seeking for bowl eligibility are trying to get a head start.

Some quick facts about the week one MWC schedule:
6 BCS opponents and 3 FCS (former I-AA) opponents.
6 home games.  2 neutral sites.  1 road game.
4 opponents played in bowl games last season.  They were 2-2 in those bowl games.
At least 5 games will be available to a national audience (if you call the Mtn national...it is AVAILABLE across the country with the right provider and package).

The actual schedule, all times are Mountain:
Thursday, September 2nd
Pittsburgh at Utah, 6:30pm (on Versus).  I hope to be at this one.

Saturday, September 4th
Colorado vs. Colorado State at Invesco Field in Denver, noon (on the Mtn).  If I weren't in Utah, I'd try to get to this one...maybe.
Northwestern State at Air Force, noon.
New Mexico at Oregon, 1:30pm (TV possible, but not defined).
Washington at BYU, 5pm (on CBS College Sports).  I will be at this one.
Oregon State vs. TCU at Cowboy Stadium, 5:45pm (on ESPN).
Nicholls State at SDSU, 6pm.
Southern Utah at Wyoming, 7pm.
Wisconsin at UNLV, 9pm (on Versus).

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Kindred Spirit?

I discovered another blog of the same ilk (superior in many ways to my own.  Of course, the quality of opinions, thoughts, predictions couldn't possibly be as good as my own, but he does his best!) I wanted to share with all of you:

http://www.adamssportsblog.com/

Enjoy the reading!