I learned something about myself this past week and a half: my internal clock just knows when March has arrived. I had been watching an occasional college hoops game from November to February, though watching as many BYU games as are on TV or available online (which has been like 16 in a row). But when the Calendar turned to March, all of a sudden my basketball watching has gone through the roof. I stayed up past midnight the other night (or 1am if you count the Spring Ahead that occurred hours afterward) watching Milwaukee oust Green Bay in OT.
So, several of my loyal "followers" have asked what I think about BYU's chances of making the Big Dance as an at-large and what their chances are in the WCC Tournament. I'm obviously not an expert bracketologist, but I pretty much read everything that the Big Two (Jerry Palm and Joe Lunardi) say every year and have internalized as much as I can. Based on that, I can say that BYU is as on the fence as they ever have been. Typically, I feel like if the NCAA has the choice between accommodating BYU and leaving them for the NIT, they would just avoid the headache that BYU causes. I always feel BYU gets underseeded by about 2 lines, with one lone exception when Jimmer was THE story of college basketball.
If you look at bubble teams, BYU actually stands apart in 2 ways, one good, one bad: 1) BYU has the worst collection of bad losses of any bubble team and 2) BYU played by far the most difficult non-conference schedule (though BYU went 2-5 in 7 non-conference games against RPI top 100).
BYU had 4 road conference losses that just can't happen. 4 teams that finished in the bottom half of the league, including LMU who only notched 4 total conference wins this season. Any one of the four might be slightly excusable for a team with designs on making the NCAA Tournament, but all 4 is not excusable in any way, shape, or form. No other serious bubble contender has 4 losses outside the top 100 RPI, though they make up for it with sheer volume of losses.
The one amazing aspect of BYU's non-conference schedule is that they played all but 1 of those 7 tough games away from home and, with 2 exceptions, had a decent chance in every one of those games to emerge victorious. No other bubble team comes near that level of challenging themselves in the non-conference and only a handful can make up for that by playing in a conference where EVERY game is a difficult challenge. SEC bubble teams, in particular, that were relying on a solid year for the conference were sorely disappointed as there were very few quality wins to pick up in conference play to make up for ATROCIOUS non-conference schedules: I'm looking at you Missouri and Arkansas.
So, BYU sits on both sides of the fence: one that the committee typically punishes for (multiple really bad losses) and one that usually gets a reward for (very difficult non-conference schedule filled with non-home games). I personally think if the season ended today, BYU would very like be in one of the play-in games. Unfortunately for BYU, the season doesn't end today and other bubble teams can pick up quality wins against tournament teams and BYU cannot.
Or BYU could just win their next two games and guarantee themselves at least a 11-seed and make the tournament with no question marks, except for seeding and opponent. This is the first year I actually believe BYU has a chance to win the conference tournament. I haven't liked BYU's chances any year previously for one reason or another. BYU has everything they need to win the tournament this year: a multi-faceted offensive attack where 6 or 7 guys are capable of putting up 20+ points, multiple players committed on the defensive end of the floor, and a weaker-than-usual field of competition with down Gonzaga-Saint Mary's teams.
With that said, they have to beat a San Francisco team tonight that is playing very good basketball right now. They have won 10 of their last 12 games, with both losses in hard-fought efforts against the two teams ahead of them in the standings. The teams are about as even as can be, though BYU won both games this season. It's difficult to beat any team three times in a season, but it's especially difficult when the other team is on-par with you. If they survive tonight, they'll have to face a team that actually knows how to win conference tournaments, even if they are having sub-par seasons, with either the Zags or Saint Mary's Gaels. Good luck, BYU. You will need it.
