I usually enter College Football Season with trepidation that BYU's expressed expectations exceed what they can actually produce out on the field. This season, I haven't seen or heard any outlandish predictions of National Titles or BCS games (maybe I just haven't been paying attention). Usually, I hope BYU can win 10 games and believe they probably can. This season, in spite of a more difficult schedule, I believe BYU should absolutely win 10 games. The real reason I believe this is the defense, but the offense being in a much better situation coming into the season helps.
The DL is stacked up with 2 or 3 guys at each position that can disrupt opposing offenses. While the depth at LB isn't near that, the ability of the starting four to make plays, especially in the run and screen game, is a little scary. Spencer Hadley, Uona Kaveinga, Brandon Ogletree, Kyle Van Noy: that is going to be one of, if not, the best LB group outside of the preseason top 10 teams. The secondary for BYU is always a question mark, that will never change. However, this group reminds me a lot of the 2006 group that ended up being pretty good. I'm not saying they will be that good, but with a DL that should be able to put pressure on QBs, OLBs that can fly to the outside in the short passing game, and MLBs that can patrol the middle delivering vicious hits, they won't have to be as good to be as productive. It'll be tough to run on BYU's front 7. And it will be tough to drive down the field throwing the ball on BYU too. However, as always, this D could give up the big play, but I would be shocked to see teams get too many 8-10 play drives against the D.
The offense shouldn't be as befuddled as the 2011 version was the first 6 weeks. Riley Nelson has seen everything as a QB and won't be phased by any defensive look or crowd. He may not have the arm strength desirable at the QB position, but he's shown he can work around that. This is the thinnest OL BYU has had in some time, I believe. There are a lot of bodies on the roster, but there are only about 6 guys I would trust, though I do have a lot of faith in those 6.
I really like BYU at the RB position again, in spite of the losses of Kariya and DiLuigi. Alisa is a beast. Quezada just needs to have some confidence in himself. Mendenhall is a great blocker. Add in Iona Pritchard at FB/RB, and if Adam Hine is what they say he can be, he'll be a nice addition to the depth along with David Foote. There are some yards to be gained there.
As with the OL, I have my doubts about the depth of the pass-catchers. However, no one can question that Cody Hoffman can play football. Ross Apo was a bit of a mixed bag, but he certainly can be great, he did grab 9 TDs last season in a limited roll due to some concussion issues. Beyond that, Falslev isn't bad out of the slot, TE Marcus Matthews did make the play at the end of the Utah State game that turned the season around in 2011, and then there are other bodies BYU will throw out there. Who knows what BYU will get out of Devin Mahina, Austin Holt, and Richard Wilson after their injuries last season. The offense may have its struggles, but I suspect they can rely on the run game until they can figure it out in the pass game. That alone, should limit the number of three-and-outs early in the year.
The schedule isn't exactly more kind than 2011, but it does give the team a chance to get things going early. A Thursday night game against Washington State starts the season, followed by a Saturday afternoon affair against Weber State. The next Saturday they travel to Utah, then follow that with a Thursday night game on the blue turf in Boise. Consecutive Friday night games at home against Hawaii and Utah State lead BYU past conference weekend. Oregon State comes in the following Saturday to make it three straight at home before going to Notre Dame (I'll be at that one!) and Georgia Tech. A much-needed bye follows that, before November brings the tri-WAC finish against Idaho and at San Jose State and New Mexico State.
Home games against Wazu and Hawaii might be difficult but I suspect BYU should pull away in both. Utah State's D always steps up against BYU, so I suppose one never knows about that game. Realistically though, I suspect BYU goes 8-0 in games outside the big four: at Utah, at Boise State, at Notre Dame, and at Georgia Tech.
None of those four games is unwinnable for the Y, though I would be shocked if BYU managed a clean sweep there. Also, I suspect BYU shouldn't lose 3 of those games. The wheels just came off against Utah last year so throw that result out. Boise State has lost its entire team over the past two seasons. Notre Dame is always in flux under Coach Kelly. Georgia Tech's option O is stoppable, though I could see a shootout of sorts there in that game.
I think 10-2 should be a realistic expectation for this team. If BYU can't pull off 10-2 this year, they may not do so for a few more years. This team is too good to lose 3 games. The parts are in place, the talent is there. The only thing that can really hurt BYU is its lack of depth at a lot of positions. The starting 22 is about as good a starting 22 as I've seen out of BYU since...2006 maybe? But that team had a little more depth and still went 10-2 (against an easier schedule than the 2012 team). The main difference is that 2006 team didn't figure out how good they were until they had already lost two games. I think this team knows how good it can be, and should start better than 1-2.
I doubt BYU will start the year anywhere close to ranked, and rightfully so as these guys haven't proven to be elite. I suspect they'll be in the rankings at some point before September is out (4-1 start?) and remain there (for the most part) for the duration of the season.
Thursday, June 21, 2012
It's Been Too Long
Hey all, it's been a while but I've had a few thoughts to put out there for some time.
I never really did a proper recap of BYU hoops. So I will say, I was pleased with how the season turned out, and I think BYU fans that came into the season expecting a better record were probably a little too optimistic. While BYU going 1-1 in the NCAA Tourney was lessened by that win coming in the "play-in" game, still, BYU made the tournament and made history in it. There were certainly some disappointments along the way, but 12-4 in a new league and 26-9 in somewhat of a rebuilding year (i.e. when the guard line was mostly freshmen) are solid marks. Had Chris Collinsworth not gone down early in the year, had Rogers been at full strength the second half of the year, and had Hartsock not been hurt late in the year, who knows how the season might have turned out. Hartsock and Abouo graduate, DaMarcus Harrison is headed on a mission, and Nick Martineau has essentially been retired by the program.
BYU has some solid pieces returning. Without knowing exactly how the schedule will pan out, I would be shocked if BYU basketball didn't have a better year this upcoming season. Carlino made a lot of poor decisions down the stretch in big games. He should be better, and if he isn't, I feel quite confident in Craig Cusick, in fact, I'd start Cusick over Carlino, personally. Winder and Austin showed flashes of brilliance throughout the season. Austin is no Noah Hartsock at this point, but comparing the two in their first seasons in Provo, Austin has a chance to BECOME a Hartsock-like player. Winder is already nearly as good as Abouo, but he is just as inconsistent right now. Add in Tyler Haws back from a mission who can start over Zylstra (and I hope he does: the guy is a gamer), add 20 pounds to Josh Sharp, get a healthy Collinsworth and Rogers, and there's a lot of guys that can play on this team. Rose has proved that he only needs 8 guys to win 25+ games. If you count Brock Zylstra as one, which I hope BYU can count on this year, BYU should have 9, maybe even 10.
BYU can certainly compete with Gonzaga in 2012-2013. The question will be, can they keep up with St. Mary's? The answer to that question lies in the development of the young trio of Nate Austin, Anson Winder, and Matt Carlino and in how Davies steps up in his senior season. I suspect we'll see a razor thin margin between 1st and 2nd in this league. It was a 3-bid league in 2012, I anticipate we'll see the same in 2013. I would also be shocked if BYU didn't win a game in the tourney in 2013 as well. However, in the absence of a real shot-blocking threat, I'd put the absolute cap at 2 wins in the tournament, unless there are some upsets that open the door for BYU.
I never really did a proper recap of BYU hoops. So I will say, I was pleased with how the season turned out, and I think BYU fans that came into the season expecting a better record were probably a little too optimistic. While BYU going 1-1 in the NCAA Tourney was lessened by that win coming in the "play-in" game, still, BYU made the tournament and made history in it. There were certainly some disappointments along the way, but 12-4 in a new league and 26-9 in somewhat of a rebuilding year (i.e. when the guard line was mostly freshmen) are solid marks. Had Chris Collinsworth not gone down early in the year, had Rogers been at full strength the second half of the year, and had Hartsock not been hurt late in the year, who knows how the season might have turned out. Hartsock and Abouo graduate, DaMarcus Harrison is headed on a mission, and Nick Martineau has essentially been retired by the program.
BYU has some solid pieces returning. Without knowing exactly how the schedule will pan out, I would be shocked if BYU basketball didn't have a better year this upcoming season. Carlino made a lot of poor decisions down the stretch in big games. He should be better, and if he isn't, I feel quite confident in Craig Cusick, in fact, I'd start Cusick over Carlino, personally. Winder and Austin showed flashes of brilliance throughout the season. Austin is no Noah Hartsock at this point, but comparing the two in their first seasons in Provo, Austin has a chance to BECOME a Hartsock-like player. Winder is already nearly as good as Abouo, but he is just as inconsistent right now. Add in Tyler Haws back from a mission who can start over Zylstra (and I hope he does: the guy is a gamer), add 20 pounds to Josh Sharp, get a healthy Collinsworth and Rogers, and there's a lot of guys that can play on this team. Rose has proved that he only needs 8 guys to win 25+ games. If you count Brock Zylstra as one, which I hope BYU can count on this year, BYU should have 9, maybe even 10.
BYU can certainly compete with Gonzaga in 2012-2013. The question will be, can they keep up with St. Mary's? The answer to that question lies in the development of the young trio of Nate Austin, Anson Winder, and Matt Carlino and in how Davies steps up in his senior season. I suspect we'll see a razor thin margin between 1st and 2nd in this league. It was a 3-bid league in 2012, I anticipate we'll see the same in 2013. I would also be shocked if BYU didn't win a game in the tourney in 2013 as well. However, in the absence of a real shot-blocking threat, I'd put the absolute cap at 2 wins in the tournament, unless there are some upsets that open the door for BYU.
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