These predictions are based on Texas beating Nebraska and Boise State beating New Mexico State. I have bolded the team that I think will be selected based on how I believe the games will go and selections will be made. After my predictions I will give a little information on how the selection takes place:
National Championship:
Florida/Alabama winner
Texas
Rose Bowl:
Oregon/Oregon State winner
Ohio State
Sugar Bowl:
Florida/Alabama loser
Pittsburgh
Orange Bowl:
Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
TCU
Fiesta Bowl:
Iowa/Penn State
Boise State
At-large teams: teams with at least 9 wins that finish in the top 14 of the Final BCS Standings. Only two teams from any conference may qualify, so the SEC can only have Alabama and Florida in BCS games, even with LSU at 9-3 in the top 14. Ohio State and Iowa OR Penn State will go to a BCS game, but all 3 cannot.
National Championship game impact on BCS games:
Number 1 and number 2 in the BCS standings go to the National Championship game. The games that lose their conference champion to the NC game have the choice of selecting either a second team in that conference or an at-large (i.e. not a conference champion from one of the 6 BCS conferences). The game that lost the number 1 team gets first pick (the Sugar) and the game that lost the number 2 team gets second (the Fiesta). The Sugar Bowl certainly takes the Florida/Alabama loser, who I believe will be Alabama. The Fiesta Bowl will not take a second Big 12 team to replace Texas: they will select either Penn State or Iowa from the Big Ten. My guess is, for national interest's sake, they take Penn State. It is possible that they select TCU but I think it is more likely to be Penn State.
Conference champions fall in:
The Rose Bowl takes the Pac 10 and Big Ten champion: Oregon (or Oregon State if they beat Oregon on Thursday night) and Ohio State. The Orange Bowl takes the ACC Champion: Clemson. The Big East champion falls in with the at-large teams as they are not tied to any specific bowl game.
At-large selections begin:
The likely pool of at-large teams available after the Fiesta Bowl selects a second Big Ten team is: TCU, Boise State, Cincinnati, Oregon (if they lose to Oregon State), Virginia Tech, Pitt (if they beat Cincinnati), BYU, and Miami or USC (but not both). These are teams with at least 9 wins that I project to be in the top 14 of the final BCS standings that come out next Sunday.
The Orange Bowl selects first from this list: they take an undefeated Cincinnati, or an undefeated TCU if Cincinnati is not undefeated.
The Fiesta Bowl goes second: TCU if they are still left or Boise State. It is also possible that they select Virginia Tech but unlikely.
The Sugar Bowl makes the final selection: Big East champion (if it is Pittsburgh) OR Virginia Tech. If the Fiesta Bowl does not select Boise State, they will not be selected by the Sugar Bowl.
With my predictions, I am saying that there will be a great National Championship game, pretty even Fiesta and Rose Bowls, and blowouts in the Orange and Sugar Bowls. It's unfortunate, but that is the way the BCS works. If Nebraska beats Texas:
NC:
SEC Champ (Florida) vs. TCU
Rose:
Pac 10 Champ (Oregon) vs. Ohio State
Orange:
ACC Champ (Clemson) vs. Texas
Sugar:
SEC 2nd team (Alabama) vs. Big East Champ (Pittsburgh)
Fiesta:
Nebraska vs. Big Ten 2nd team (Penn State)
Monday, November 30, 2009
Friday, November 27, 2009
BYU-Utah
So, rivalry game is here again. The winner goes to a better bowl game and finishes ranked. Loser drops from the top 25. Fans of both teams are wondering which team they will see. Utah has looked brilliant at times but very stoppable at others. BYU looked like a top 10 team several games this year, and resembled a bottom 10 team on several occasions. Both teams have some Jekyll and Hyde in them. Who shows up tomorrow?
Both teams have experienced defenses with big-hitting safeties, suspect corners, LBs that fly all over the field, and D-linemen that are good against the run and in rushing the passer. Both teams have big, strong, physical offensive lines. One has an experienced QB with inexperienced receivers. One has an inexperienced QB with experienced receivers. One uses the TE very well. The other employs a speedy slot receiver in place of a TE.
The teams are about as even as I have seen them in my brief history of watching this rivalry game. BYU's O is based on precision and timing. Utah's D is based on aggression and disrupting timing. BYU's D is based on stopping the big play. Utah's O is based on big plays. The teams seem to be built to stop each other. Utah has the advantage in adapting their schemes on the fly but goes on the road with a freshman QB. BYU does things one way whether it's working or not, but they are at home with a senior QB. However, Utah does not adjust at halftime as well as BYU.
Early in the year, Utah lacked the ability to spread the field vertically: enter Jordan Wynn, and their speedy receivers all of a sudden start getting the ball down the field. The Utah O has looked like an entirely different animal the past 4 games with Wynn at the helm. On the other hand, BYU's D has taken a turn for the worst. Games 1 and 2, they were an aggressive, blitzing, mix-up-the-coverage type of D. Since then: passive, predictable, and soft on their coverage. This is the key matchup: how does the Ute O, led by a true freshman who is experiencing the madness of this game for the first time, do against a stout-against-the-run but porous-against-the-pass defense?
It's also a matchup of wannabe 1,000-yard rushers. Both Eddie Wide and Harvey Unga need under 100 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Unga does more of his work up the middle where Eddie Wide likes to get wide. Both offenses are geared towards those strengths and both backs take advantage of their opportunities. Both backs have been nicked up a bit: we'll see if that plays a role tomorrow as well.
Turnovers were huge last year. It was a 7-point game going into the fourth quarter before Max Hall completely imploded. I anticipate BYU taking better care of the ball this year. If they don't, it won't matter how Jordan Wynn and the Ute offense do: BYU will not win turning it over 6 times. The games in Provo tend to be lower-scoring affairs. That favors Utah. BYU definitely wants to see a higher-scoring game as that gives them the edge. 24 points should be enough to win.
I really think the experience factor plays big, particularly if it's close down the stretch, which pretty much all of these games have been recently. It will be close again, but BYU will pull away late: 27-17, thanks to the Max Hall and Dennis Pitta connection.
Both teams have experienced defenses with big-hitting safeties, suspect corners, LBs that fly all over the field, and D-linemen that are good against the run and in rushing the passer. Both teams have big, strong, physical offensive lines. One has an experienced QB with inexperienced receivers. One has an inexperienced QB with experienced receivers. One uses the TE very well. The other employs a speedy slot receiver in place of a TE.
The teams are about as even as I have seen them in my brief history of watching this rivalry game. BYU's O is based on precision and timing. Utah's D is based on aggression and disrupting timing. BYU's D is based on stopping the big play. Utah's O is based on big plays. The teams seem to be built to stop each other. Utah has the advantage in adapting their schemes on the fly but goes on the road with a freshman QB. BYU does things one way whether it's working or not, but they are at home with a senior QB. However, Utah does not adjust at halftime as well as BYU.
Early in the year, Utah lacked the ability to spread the field vertically: enter Jordan Wynn, and their speedy receivers all of a sudden start getting the ball down the field. The Utah O has looked like an entirely different animal the past 4 games with Wynn at the helm. On the other hand, BYU's D has taken a turn for the worst. Games 1 and 2, they were an aggressive, blitzing, mix-up-the-coverage type of D. Since then: passive, predictable, and soft on their coverage. This is the key matchup: how does the Ute O, led by a true freshman who is experiencing the madness of this game for the first time, do against a stout-against-the-run but porous-against-the-pass defense?
It's also a matchup of wannabe 1,000-yard rushers. Both Eddie Wide and Harvey Unga need under 100 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Unga does more of his work up the middle where Eddie Wide likes to get wide. Both offenses are geared towards those strengths and both backs take advantage of their opportunities. Both backs have been nicked up a bit: we'll see if that plays a role tomorrow as well.
Turnovers were huge last year. It was a 7-point game going into the fourth quarter before Max Hall completely imploded. I anticipate BYU taking better care of the ball this year. If they don't, it won't matter how Jordan Wynn and the Ute offense do: BYU will not win turning it over 6 times. The games in Provo tend to be lower-scoring affairs. That favors Utah. BYU definitely wants to see a higher-scoring game as that gives them the edge. 24 points should be enough to win.
I really think the experience factor plays big, particularly if it's close down the stretch, which pretty much all of these games have been recently. It will be close again, but BYU will pull away late: 27-17, thanks to the Max Hall and Dennis Pitta connection.
Weekend Predictions
Texas A&M played extremely well last night. Perhaps they are closer to being a contender in the South than most of us thought. They still need some consistency, both within games and game-to-game. You can't lose to Colorado. You can't lose by 28 points to anybody: the Aggies did it THREE times this season. There is improvement there though, certainly on offense!
The ACC might see a couple of upsets: South Carolina-Clemson could go the way of the Gamecocks, certainly at home, on Senior Day; Florida State-Florida (OK, just kidding with this one); Miami better be careful at South Florida, they have a pretty good front four on D; and Georgia has dominated G-Tech in recent years, though Tech is clearly the better team this year, Georgia is still the more talented team.
The Big 12 slate is pretty uninteresting, particularly for a rivalry week. Kansas-Mizzou means very little (and most KU fans have stopped paying attention to football already anyway). OU fans are too upset with the team to watch the Bedlam matchup this year. CU-Nebraska puts exact opposites against each other: 8-3 vs. 3-8. That sucks.
Big East will be highlighted by West Virginia-Pitt. Pitt is really good. I would be pretty surprised to see West Virginia pull it out: they don't have the D to stop Pitt's O. Plus, Big East officials, particularly in the replay booth, have shown EXTREME bias towards the higher ranked teams in several matchups this year. Can WVU overcome poor officiating?
C-USA has Southern Miss playing at East Carolina. One of the more overrated non-BCS teams against one of the more underrated non-BCS teams: I'm going with the underrated Golden Eagles to pull this one out.
Navy wins at Hawaii.
Ohio-Temple has started as the MAC game of the week: gotta go with Frank Solich and the Ohio Bobcats. Central Michigan beats Northern Illinois.
Besides TCU needing to beat New Mexico as a formality, the only game that matters this weekend in the MWC is BYU-Utah. I guess the Wyoming-CSU game matters for fans of their teams and Wyoming could still get bowl eligible. Cowboys win. BYU-Utah gets a separate post...
The only game I'm considering watching from the Pac 10 is Notre Dame-Stanford. I would like to see how one of the best RBs in the country plays in the final home game of the season against one of the worst run defenses Notre Dame has had in the history of its storied program. I guess UCLA-USC might be exciting, but I'm tired of hearing about USC. And Notre Dame. And Michigan.
The Iron Bowl could be exciting today (Alabama at Auburn), or it could be a blowout. Alabama's D hasn't really been tested by a great offense this season. I'm not saying they aren't a great defense, I'm just saying it's easy to look better than you are when you have only played one offense in the top 30 in scoring O, and only four in the top 50. Auburn will test them. I think this game comes down to a kicker.
Troy faces its final obstacle in the Sun Belt in (bowl eligible but not going bowling) Louisiana-Lafayette. Troy finishes undefeated in the Sun Belt for its 4th consecutive title.
Nevada plays at Boise State in the only intriguing WAC game. Nevada is "on a roll" but it's tough not to be on a roll when your 8 game winning streak includes ZERO ranked teams and only 2 bowl eligible teams, both of whom are WAC teams. I think Boise could win this game by 28 points. Nevada does not win, no way, no how!
The ACC might see a couple of upsets: South Carolina-Clemson could go the way of the Gamecocks, certainly at home, on Senior Day; Florida State-Florida (OK, just kidding with this one); Miami better be careful at South Florida, they have a pretty good front four on D; and Georgia has dominated G-Tech in recent years, though Tech is clearly the better team this year, Georgia is still the more talented team.
The Big 12 slate is pretty uninteresting, particularly for a rivalry week. Kansas-Mizzou means very little (and most KU fans have stopped paying attention to football already anyway). OU fans are too upset with the team to watch the Bedlam matchup this year. CU-Nebraska puts exact opposites against each other: 8-3 vs. 3-8. That sucks.
Big East will be highlighted by West Virginia-Pitt. Pitt is really good. I would be pretty surprised to see West Virginia pull it out: they don't have the D to stop Pitt's O. Plus, Big East officials, particularly in the replay booth, have shown EXTREME bias towards the higher ranked teams in several matchups this year. Can WVU overcome poor officiating?
C-USA has Southern Miss playing at East Carolina. One of the more overrated non-BCS teams against one of the more underrated non-BCS teams: I'm going with the underrated Golden Eagles to pull this one out.
Navy wins at Hawaii.
Ohio-Temple has started as the MAC game of the week: gotta go with Frank Solich and the Ohio Bobcats. Central Michigan beats Northern Illinois.
Besides TCU needing to beat New Mexico as a formality, the only game that matters this weekend in the MWC is BYU-Utah. I guess the Wyoming-CSU game matters for fans of their teams and Wyoming could still get bowl eligible. Cowboys win. BYU-Utah gets a separate post...
The only game I'm considering watching from the Pac 10 is Notre Dame-Stanford. I would like to see how one of the best RBs in the country plays in the final home game of the season against one of the worst run defenses Notre Dame has had in the history of its storied program. I guess UCLA-USC might be exciting, but I'm tired of hearing about USC. And Notre Dame. And Michigan.
The Iron Bowl could be exciting today (Alabama at Auburn), or it could be a blowout. Alabama's D hasn't really been tested by a great offense this season. I'm not saying they aren't a great defense, I'm just saying it's easy to look better than you are when you have only played one offense in the top 30 in scoring O, and only four in the top 50. Auburn will test them. I think this game comes down to a kicker.
Troy faces its final obstacle in the Sun Belt in (bowl eligible but not going bowling) Louisiana-Lafayette. Troy finishes undefeated in the Sun Belt for its 4th consecutive title.
Nevada plays at Boise State in the only intriguing WAC game. Nevada is "on a roll" but it's tough not to be on a roll when your 8 game winning streak includes ZERO ranked teams and only 2 bowl eligible teams, both of whom are WAC teams. I think Boise could win this game by 28 points. Nevada does not win, no way, no how!
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
I can admit it
My predictions for last weekend sucked. Totally. Across the board. I am entitled to a week like that every now and again. That was my 2nd such weekend this season, but I still maintain around 75% on my picks for the season.
BYU dominated. Ole Miss pulled it out against LSU. I did get the Pac 10 games right, so I'll go ahead and take some credit.
Now, the Big Ten conference season is over. Let's see how I did. I said:
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Minnesota
Purdue
Indiana
It was:
Ohio State
Iowa
Penn State
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
Minnesota
Illinois
Michigan
Indiana
I was a little off on the two Michigan schools, giving both of them a little too much credit, and I didn't give quite enough credit to Iowa and Purdue: though Purdue still didn't make a bowl game. I challenge you to find an "expert" who more accurately predicted the Big Ten before the season started! I am curious to see what you find...I stand by my performance unless someone shows me a much more accurate prediction.
BYU dominated. Ole Miss pulled it out against LSU. I did get the Pac 10 games right, so I'll go ahead and take some credit.
Now, the Big Ten conference season is over. Let's see how I did. I said:
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Minnesota
Purdue
Indiana
It was:
Ohio State
Iowa
Penn State
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
Minnesota
Illinois
Michigan
Indiana
I was a little off on the two Michigan schools, giving both of them a little too much credit, and I didn't give quite enough credit to Iowa and Purdue: though Purdue still didn't make a bowl game. I challenge you to find an "expert" who more accurately predicted the Big Ten before the season started! I am curious to see what you find...I stand by my performance unless someone shows me a much more accurate prediction.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
BYU-Air Force
Two years ago, Air Force was riding high, coming in to LES. A lot of people (not just Utah fans) thought they could take down the Cougars and compete for the conference title. BYU thumped them. They handled the option, forced turnovers, and moved the ball easily for a big win. They got up early and stayed ahead.
This year, Air Force comes in with a better defense, an efficient offense, and without all the fanfare. BYU has a lot of potential records to set this week: Max Hall could become the all-time leader in wins for a BYU QB, Harvey Unga could set the record for rushing yards and attempts by a BYU player, and the home sellout streak could extend as well. BYU essentially got eliminated from a conference championship chance, which is one of their goals. The defensive line seems more concerned with the method Air Force's O-line employs to block (cut blocking which is totally legal) than they are with the scheme they will employ.
BYU has had a great run defense to counter Air Force's great run offense. BYU has been one of the most efficient pass offenses in the country and Air Force counters with the most efficient pass defense in the country. Strength on strength, weakness on weakness. BYU players expect their strengths to win out over the Academy's. The difference is: this year Air Force feels the same way.
Bronco Mendenhall has owned Air Force since his arrival in to the BYU program. Last year they showed a small chink in the armor, but still won by two scores. A lot of things point to BYU winning this game. Air Force lost a tough one to TCU (by 3 which is TCU's closest game this season). They lost to Utah in overtime on the road. Today, in LaVell Edwards Stadium, they finally get that signature win they have been needing this season. Today they prove that you have to take Air Force seriously, or they will knock you in the mouth, over and over again. Air Force 31, BYU 27. Sorry, Cougar fans. From what I have listened to, I just don't hear the BYU players being focused enough this week to beat the Air Force Falcons. To the Poinsettia Bowl go the Cougars.
This year, Air Force comes in with a better defense, an efficient offense, and without all the fanfare. BYU has a lot of potential records to set this week: Max Hall could become the all-time leader in wins for a BYU QB, Harvey Unga could set the record for rushing yards and attempts by a BYU player, and the home sellout streak could extend as well. BYU essentially got eliminated from a conference championship chance, which is one of their goals. The defensive line seems more concerned with the method Air Force's O-line employs to block (cut blocking which is totally legal) than they are with the scheme they will employ.
BYU has had a great run defense to counter Air Force's great run offense. BYU has been one of the most efficient pass offenses in the country and Air Force counters with the most efficient pass defense in the country. Strength on strength, weakness on weakness. BYU players expect their strengths to win out over the Academy's. The difference is: this year Air Force feels the same way.
Bronco Mendenhall has owned Air Force since his arrival in to the BYU program. Last year they showed a small chink in the armor, but still won by two scores. A lot of things point to BYU winning this game. Air Force lost a tough one to TCU (by 3 which is TCU's closest game this season). They lost to Utah in overtime on the road. Today, in LaVell Edwards Stadium, they finally get that signature win they have been needing this season. Today they prove that you have to take Air Force seriously, or they will knock you in the mouth, over and over again. Air Force 31, BYU 27. Sorry, Cougar fans. From what I have listened to, I just don't hear the BYU players being focused enough this week to beat the Air Force Falcons. To the Poinsettia Bowl go the Cougars.
Friday, November 20, 2009
Thoughts on the weekend
Not a great weekend for college football fans. Florida and Alabama are taking the week off, basically. Texas plays disappointing Kansas. Ohio State-Michigan hasn't been much of a rivalry for about a decade now. Nobody in the top 10 has much of a test this weekend. I'd be stunned if the top 10 lost a single game this weekend. Maybe the top 15, in aggregate, loses 2 games, but they are probably more likely to go 11-0 than they are to go 9-2. It is not a good weekend to try to rise in the polls. Some changes will take place in the BCS standings as computers will do some fairly heavy shifting around with top 25 teams schedule-strength taking big hits.
LSU-Ole Miss highlights the SEC slate. I think in August it looked like it would be a great matchup, when Ole Miss was overrated and LSU was a potential sleeper. Alabama already has the SEC West wrapped up with 2 weeks left to be played, and it's been secure for a few weeks already! LSU wins this road game. In other SEC news, Tennessee gets bowl eligible with a win against Vandy and Georgia beats Kentucky.
In the ACC, there's nothing doing with Georgia Tech off this week and the other 3 ranked teams playing teams eliminated from bowl contention (NC State only has 6 losses, but played 2 I-AA teams so needed to go 7-5 to qualify). North Carolina is coming off a big win over over-hyped, over-ranked Miami. Boston College has quietly put together another solid campaign, but most likely finishes behind Clemson in the division. BC still wins this one though. For a conference with 9 bowls, it is looking like it may only get 7 teams eligible, assuming Florida State can beat Maryland. I'm counting Duke out which needs to win BOTH of its final two with Miami and Wake Forest. That loss to Richmond must be killing the Blue Devils!
The Big 12 should have had some good games: OU-Tech, Kansas-Texas, and even K-State at Nebraska. OU has been a disappointment. As has Kansas. Texas Tech did well for a rebuilding year, but I can guarantee you they are saddened by their record. K-State needs to win their game to get bowl eligible. And if they do win, they also win the division! Pathetic. OU, Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, and A&M come off victorious this weekend.
The Big East schedule isn't even worth mentioning.
The Big Ten provides the best OPPORTUNITY for upsets. Minnesota at Iowa, Ohio State at Michigan (yeah right), Wisconsin at Northwestern, and Penn State at Michigan State. 3 of the 4 ranked teams play on the road and the one that plays at home is Iowa, who eked out home wins over I-AA Northern Iowa, Sun Belt non-contender Arkansas State, and Michigan, and needed oodles of help from the men in stripes to pull off a home win against 4-7 Indiana. Of the 4 ranked teams, Wisconsin is playing the best football right now and is the one not playing a true rival. As far as upsets happening, Michigan State is the most likely. I'd love to Northwestern and Minnesota to pull off theirs, but I don't think so. Rich Rod is almost as big of a disaster in Ann Arbor as Charlie Weis is in South Bend. I wish we could stop hearing about both of them. Seriously.
In the non-BCS conferences, only two games put two games with winning records against each other: Northern Illinois at Ohio and Air Force at BYU. Go Bobcats. I like TCU to win convincingly in somewhat of a letdown game (still by 3 TDs though). Utah wins a struggle against an SDSU team that is fighting for its postseason life. I'm sure the Ute ego took a huge hit with that performance last week. They haven't been dominated like that since a 27-0 loss to currently coachless UNLV back in 2007. I'm curious to see how they respond. CSU edges a somewhat rejuvenated but still extremely poor 0-10 New Mexico team in the battle for last place.
The Pac 10 has two very good games. Cal at red hot, but still beatable Stanford and the Oregon Ducks on the road against the pesky Arizona Wildcats. The old adage: defense wins championships need not apply. Stanford has won games by outscoring people, as has Oregon. Look no further then their head-to-head matchup for proof of that: Stanford won 51-42. I think road teams come away victorious this weekend: Cal upsets Stanford and Oregon pounds Arizona to the tune of 500 yards and 42+ points.
LSU-Ole Miss highlights the SEC slate. I think in August it looked like it would be a great matchup, when Ole Miss was overrated and LSU was a potential sleeper. Alabama already has the SEC West wrapped up with 2 weeks left to be played, and it's been secure for a few weeks already! LSU wins this road game. In other SEC news, Tennessee gets bowl eligible with a win against Vandy and Georgia beats Kentucky.
In the ACC, there's nothing doing with Georgia Tech off this week and the other 3 ranked teams playing teams eliminated from bowl contention (NC State only has 6 losses, but played 2 I-AA teams so needed to go 7-5 to qualify). North Carolina is coming off a big win over over-hyped, over-ranked Miami. Boston College has quietly put together another solid campaign, but most likely finishes behind Clemson in the division. BC still wins this one though. For a conference with 9 bowls, it is looking like it may only get 7 teams eligible, assuming Florida State can beat Maryland. I'm counting Duke out which needs to win BOTH of its final two with Miami and Wake Forest. That loss to Richmond must be killing the Blue Devils!
The Big 12 should have had some good games: OU-Tech, Kansas-Texas, and even K-State at Nebraska. OU has been a disappointment. As has Kansas. Texas Tech did well for a rebuilding year, but I can guarantee you they are saddened by their record. K-State needs to win their game to get bowl eligible. And if they do win, they also win the division! Pathetic. OU, Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, and A&M come off victorious this weekend.
The Big East schedule isn't even worth mentioning.
The Big Ten provides the best OPPORTUNITY for upsets. Minnesota at Iowa, Ohio State at Michigan (yeah right), Wisconsin at Northwestern, and Penn State at Michigan State. 3 of the 4 ranked teams play on the road and the one that plays at home is Iowa, who eked out home wins over I-AA Northern Iowa, Sun Belt non-contender Arkansas State, and Michigan, and needed oodles of help from the men in stripes to pull off a home win against 4-7 Indiana. Of the 4 ranked teams, Wisconsin is playing the best football right now and is the one not playing a true rival. As far as upsets happening, Michigan State is the most likely. I'd love to Northwestern and Minnesota to pull off theirs, but I don't think so. Rich Rod is almost as big of a disaster in Ann Arbor as Charlie Weis is in South Bend. I wish we could stop hearing about both of them. Seriously.
In the non-BCS conferences, only two games put two games with winning records against each other: Northern Illinois at Ohio and Air Force at BYU. Go Bobcats. I like TCU to win convincingly in somewhat of a letdown game (still by 3 TDs though). Utah wins a struggle against an SDSU team that is fighting for its postseason life. I'm sure the Ute ego took a huge hit with that performance last week. They haven't been dominated like that since a 27-0 loss to currently coachless UNLV back in 2007. I'm curious to see how they respond. CSU edges a somewhat rejuvenated but still extremely poor 0-10 New Mexico team in the battle for last place.
The Pac 10 has two very good games. Cal at red hot, but still beatable Stanford and the Oregon Ducks on the road against the pesky Arizona Wildcats. The old adage: defense wins championships need not apply. Stanford has won games by outscoring people, as has Oregon. Look no further then their head-to-head matchup for proof of that: Stanford won 51-42. I think road teams come away victorious this weekend: Cal upsets Stanford and Oregon pounds Arizona to the tune of 500 yards and 42+ points.
Thursday, November 19, 2009
Transition Period
This is always a difficult time of year for me: college hoops is underway but there are still a lot of meaningful football games left. I will occasionally write about hoops the next few weeks, but until the bowl games have been announced, I'll maintain my entire focus on football.
A few tidbits for the weekend:
Pac 10 reigns supreme. The only really meaningful games (from a national perspective) this weekend come from the Pac 10. And USC has a bye. What happened?
The bowl situation mostly settles this weekend for the MWC. SDSU is facing elimination from bowl eligibility, as they face Utah and UNLV, needing to win both games. Wyoming is standing on the precipice of that cliff as well, facing off against TCU followed by Colorado State, needing only one win. Air Force can put itself in contention for a bigger-than-normal bowl game with a win over BYU on the road. Utah and BYU can both earn their titles of being part of "the Big 3" with wins this weekend, essentially making their game on November 28th a Vegas Bowl play-in game. TCU could wrap-up their BCS game appearance by winning at Wyoming (they finish the season at home against winless New Mexico).
On a side note, Colorado State and New Mexico battle it out for last place, as both stand at 0-6 with two games left: the winner, at worst, ties for 8th/last, where the loser, at best, ties for last.
How about that Big 12 North? Kansas State, with a win against Nebraska would clinch the Big 12 North and head off to the Big 12 Championship. With a loss, they are not even eligible for a bowl game. That's jacked up: one win separates them from a chance at a BCS game and not even going to a bowl game. Either way: they will still receive as much money from the BCS as an undefeated TCU or Boise State would. That's jacked up too!
A few tidbits for the weekend:
Pac 10 reigns supreme. The only really meaningful games (from a national perspective) this weekend come from the Pac 10. And USC has a bye. What happened?
The bowl situation mostly settles this weekend for the MWC. SDSU is facing elimination from bowl eligibility, as they face Utah and UNLV, needing to win both games. Wyoming is standing on the precipice of that cliff as well, facing off against TCU followed by Colorado State, needing only one win. Air Force can put itself in contention for a bigger-than-normal bowl game with a win over BYU on the road. Utah and BYU can both earn their titles of being part of "the Big 3" with wins this weekend, essentially making their game on November 28th a Vegas Bowl play-in game. TCU could wrap-up their BCS game appearance by winning at Wyoming (they finish the season at home against winless New Mexico).
On a side note, Colorado State and New Mexico battle it out for last place, as both stand at 0-6 with two games left: the winner, at worst, ties for 8th/last, where the loser, at best, ties for last.
How about that Big 12 North? Kansas State, with a win against Nebraska would clinch the Big 12 North and head off to the Big 12 Championship. With a loss, they are not even eligible for a bowl game. That's jacked up: one win separates them from a chance at a BCS game and not even going to a bowl game. Either way: they will still receive as much money from the BCS as an undefeated TCU or Boise State would. That's jacked up too!
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
A preview of next week's preview
BYU and Utah look pretty even right now. BYU's struggles have been on D and in the return game. Utah's struggles have been on O and in the kicking game. Both got their butts kicked by the class of the league, TCU. Both lost potentially big games against BCS teams. BYU got killed, by a decent-at-best Florida State, who played a phenomenal game. Utah lost a close one to a potential Pac 10 Champion, who played horribly but still did enough to win. You could argue FSU played such a perfect game against BYU because BYU is bad and that Oregon played such a crappy game because Utah is good. I won't make that argument because I don't think it's true. If both games were played again right now, I'm not sure the ultimate outcome would change, though BYU would probably tighten up their margin of loss and Utah's would probably increase.
Comparing coaching for the two teams: Kyle is a great big game coach, but not a good day-to-day coach. His teams often overperform against superior talent, but definitely underperform against average competition. Bronco does a great job preparing his team week-to-week, day-to-day, for the most part dismantling all of their unranked opponents, while continually struggling against ranked opponents.
It's tough to decide whether this is a big game or not. Certainly you have the rivalry factor, which makes it a big game. It is two ranked teams playing in the last week of the season. But there is nothing all the line EXCEPT bragging rights. I know that is a lot to play for, but is playing for second place enough for BYU to go crawling into its shell as they often do? Will Utah get that big game mentality and play like world-beaters without the motivation of a BCS game or the thought of ruining BYU's season? I think BYU probably avoids playing TOO timid, and Utah will most likely play a less than perfect game. How will it play out then? You'll have to wait until next week to see what I think.
Comparing coaching for the two teams: Kyle is a great big game coach, but not a good day-to-day coach. His teams often overperform against superior talent, but definitely underperform against average competition. Bronco does a great job preparing his team week-to-week, day-to-day, for the most part dismantling all of their unranked opponents, while continually struggling against ranked opponents.
It's tough to decide whether this is a big game or not. Certainly you have the rivalry factor, which makes it a big game. It is two ranked teams playing in the last week of the season. But there is nothing all the line EXCEPT bragging rights. I know that is a lot to play for, but is playing for second place enough for BYU to go crawling into its shell as they often do? Will Utah get that big game mentality and play like world-beaters without the motivation of a BCS game or the thought of ruining BYU's season? I think BYU probably avoids playing TOO timid, and Utah will most likely play a less than perfect game. How will it play out then? You'll have to wait until next week to see what I think.
Monday, November 16, 2009
A look at TCU/Boise State
I thought it at the time, but it was confirmed this weekend: this 2009 TCU team is the best team I have ever seen in the MWC. Maybe the 2004 Utah Utes were better, but I'm not sure. TCU ran all over a decent MWC this season. They made a good Utah defense look ridiculously bad. They made a good BYU offense look like a high school team. They won two ACC road games, one against a current division leader. They are just plain good. They have a much better resume than any of the previous BCS busters, but it looks like they have a near zero chance of being able to prove it. My one hope is that if Boise State and TCU both make BCS bowls they get to play BCS teams instead of having to play each other.
Having poured over potential at-large teams, the competition for bids looks like this:
SEC gets 2 teams
Big 12 could get 2
Big 10 could get 2
Big East, ACC, Pac 10 get only 1
TCU gets a spot.
There are a few scenarios that would "steal" a potential BCS bid: Texas losing the Big 12 championship game, Iowa and Penn State both finishing 10-2 and creeping into the top 10, Oklahoma State finishing 10-2 with an impressive national TV audience game Thursday against CU and winning at Oklahoma to close the season to finish in the top 9. There are 8 guaranteed BCS spots at this point: 6 BCS conference champs, SEC 2nd place finisher, and TCU. Texas will go to a BCS game, so a loss in the Big 12 title game means 9 spots are spoken for. A top 10 (or even 12) Penn State or Iowa is very likely to get a BCS bid. A 10-2 Oklahoma State would most likely get a bid as well, if there is still one left to take, unless the ratings for the CU-OK State game are absolutely horrid this Thursday, which they might be. If Georgia Tech, LSU, Ohio State, and Oregon win out, it might maintain enough of a buffer in the standings between Boise State and the Big Ten/12 teams for the Broncos to get to a BCS game. I think this one comes down to the wire. If Boise State gets in the top 5, can they really get left out? It all comes down to dollars in the end, and we'll see how much "respect" the Broncos' fans are getting come December 6th...
Having poured over potential at-large teams, the competition for bids looks like this:
SEC gets 2 teams
Big 12 could get 2
Big 10 could get 2
Big East, ACC, Pac 10 get only 1
TCU gets a spot.
There are a few scenarios that would "steal" a potential BCS bid: Texas losing the Big 12 championship game, Iowa and Penn State both finishing 10-2 and creeping into the top 10, Oklahoma State finishing 10-2 with an impressive national TV audience game Thursday against CU and winning at Oklahoma to close the season to finish in the top 9. There are 8 guaranteed BCS spots at this point: 6 BCS conference champs, SEC 2nd place finisher, and TCU. Texas will go to a BCS game, so a loss in the Big 12 title game means 9 spots are spoken for. A top 10 (or even 12) Penn State or Iowa is very likely to get a BCS bid. A 10-2 Oklahoma State would most likely get a bid as well, if there is still one left to take, unless the ratings for the CU-OK State game are absolutely horrid this Thursday, which they might be. If Georgia Tech, LSU, Ohio State, and Oregon win out, it might maintain enough of a buffer in the standings between Boise State and the Big Ten/12 teams for the Broncos to get to a BCS game. I think this one comes down to the wire. If Boise State gets in the top 5, can they really get left out? It all comes down to dollars in the end, and we'll see how much "respect" the Broncos' fans are getting come December 6th...
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Weekend predictions
Well the replay bug struck again with Cincinnati being awarded a phantom touchdown last night. It may or may not have been a touchdown but there was no indisputable video evidence. Either way, it's getting ridiculous with the number of controversial replay decisions going IN FAVOR of top 10 and top 5 teams. There are three people in the replay booth, but only one of them makes the final decision, the other two merely assist. I think in order to overturn a call all three must unanimously decide to overturn. Easy fix, no additional cost to it.
I don't foresee a lot of top 25 upsets this week. The teams that I put on upset alert are:
Miami at North Carolina, Pittsburgh against Notre Dame and Oklahoma St. against Texas Tech. I expect Florida to handle South Carolina with relative ease, but you never know with the Ol' Ball Coach. California is favored over their ranked opponent, Arizona, so that's not an upset, but it is a top 25 team that I think will lose. Miami has struggled mightily against every good defense they have played and North Carolina has a great defense, but if North Carolina can't scored 10 points FOR ONCE, they have no chance. As far as Pittsburgh goes, I still think mentally they are not quite a top 10 team and, therefore, might struggle against a team as talanted as Notre Dame. But Notre Dame's coaching, as has been the case for the last decade, holds them back. As far as the Tech-State game is concerned, both teams have explosive offenses with defenses that typically struggle. However, Tech's defense has shown a lot of improvement the past few weeks. If they can force more turnovers than they give up, they can certainly win this tough road game.
Now to the big games: I don't think either will be close. I think Ohio St. will score on Iowa's "tough" defense and Iowa's offense, which depends on the running game, will struggle to move against the best run defense in the Big Ten. I expect a similar fate for Utah: a great rushing attack going against one of the best run defenses in the country (besides their own). Although, with Jordan Wynn playing QB now, Utah will have the ability to spread the field vertically as well as horizontally. Utah has "big game" potential and definitely has the ability to surprise. Jim Boylen, Utah's basketball coach, gave an interview earlier this week where he said the 17-point line on the game was a joke and that it would definitely tighten up before game time. Wrong: it now sits at 20 points. Maybe people know something the Utes don't. I think TCU certainly has the potential to dominate: but Utah definitely has the potential to upset. I think Utah (and Iowa) will be able to keep the games close for a while. However, I expect both of those games to finish something like 31 to 10 in favor of the home teams: high 20's to low 30's for the home teams against a single digit, maybe teens score for the visitors.
Not much needs to be said about BYU at New Mexico. On paper it is a blowout. BYU has shown the ability to blow out inferior opponents, and New Mexico has shown the ability to get blown out by good teams (or any team, really). If this is closer than 4 touchdowns, then BYU is in trouble in the next two games.
MWC basketball had an OK night. Teams at the bottom of the conference struggled against crappy teams or lost to them. BYU came up big against Bradley, never trailing except for 2-0. CSU handled UC Davis at home. Utah and Wyoming lost their home openers against teams they could/should have beaten. TCU and Air Force both struggled against crummy directional schools, while getting W's.
I don't foresee a lot of top 25 upsets this week. The teams that I put on upset alert are:
Miami at North Carolina, Pittsburgh against Notre Dame and Oklahoma St. against Texas Tech. I expect Florida to handle South Carolina with relative ease, but you never know with the Ol' Ball Coach. California is favored over their ranked opponent, Arizona, so that's not an upset, but it is a top 25 team that I think will lose. Miami has struggled mightily against every good defense they have played and North Carolina has a great defense, but if North Carolina can't scored 10 points FOR ONCE, they have no chance. As far as Pittsburgh goes, I still think mentally they are not quite a top 10 team and, therefore, might struggle against a team as talanted as Notre Dame. But Notre Dame's coaching, as has been the case for the last decade, holds them back. As far as the Tech-State game is concerned, both teams have explosive offenses with defenses that typically struggle. However, Tech's defense has shown a lot of improvement the past few weeks. If they can force more turnovers than they give up, they can certainly win this tough road game.
Now to the big games: I don't think either will be close. I think Ohio St. will score on Iowa's "tough" defense and Iowa's offense, which depends on the running game, will struggle to move against the best run defense in the Big Ten. I expect a similar fate for Utah: a great rushing attack going against one of the best run defenses in the country (besides their own). Although, with Jordan Wynn playing QB now, Utah will have the ability to spread the field vertically as well as horizontally. Utah has "big game" potential and definitely has the ability to surprise. Jim Boylen, Utah's basketball coach, gave an interview earlier this week where he said the 17-point line on the game was a joke and that it would definitely tighten up before game time. Wrong: it now sits at 20 points. Maybe people know something the Utes don't. I think TCU certainly has the potential to dominate: but Utah definitely has the potential to upset. I think Utah (and Iowa) will be able to keep the games close for a while. However, I expect both of those games to finish something like 31 to 10 in favor of the home teams: high 20's to low 30's for the home teams against a single digit, maybe teens score for the visitors.
Not much needs to be said about BYU at New Mexico. On paper it is a blowout. BYU has shown the ability to blow out inferior opponents, and New Mexico has shown the ability to get blown out by good teams (or any team, really). If this is closer than 4 touchdowns, then BYU is in trouble in the next two games.
MWC basketball had an OK night. Teams at the bottom of the conference struggled against crappy teams or lost to them. BYU came up big against Bradley, never trailing except for 2-0. CSU handled UC Davis at home. Utah and Wyoming lost their home openers against teams they could/should have beaten. TCU and Air Force both struggled against crummy directional schools, while getting W's.
Wednesday, November 11, 2009
Another exhibition in the books
Well, BYU won its second and final exhibition game last night, beating Division II Central Washington, 82-46. Here are a few thoughts from the game:
Brandon Davies is the best center on the team. I know he's just a freshman and I wouldn't overwork him and wear him down, but I would start him and play him at least 20 minutes a game. I didn't realize how bad Chris Miles is offensively or how slow defensively, until I could compare the two next to each other.
BYU played a lot of different lineups: some worked, some didn't. At one point in time, Noah Hartsock, Jackson Emery, and Logan Magnusson were on the floor together. Offensively, that was a nightmare. It might be one of the better defensive lineups, but it's not worth it for the total lack of production on the offensive end. There was a ton of speed when Michael Loyd and Lamon Morgan were both in the game at the same time. BYU was really able to push the ball. It is a smaller lineup defensively, but Loyd showed a couple of times that he can sky for the rebound. The one lineup I didn't see that I would like to, particularly against some of the guard-oriented teams in the MWC: Tavernari, Abouo, Haws, Emery, and Fredette. I realize that lineup is tiny, but that would be impossible to stop on the offensive side. All 5 can shoot the 3-ball, penetrate off the dribble, finish at the rim, and make free throws.
The defense was solid last night. The perimeter defense was a step slow on their rotation early but got it solved by halftime. The interior defense was phenomenal early but weren't quite as crisp in the second half. The freshman were particularly impressive, for freshman, on the defensive side of the ball. I do worry about Haws being taken off the dribble and I'm not sure how Davies will respond against a center that can post up.
It appears that Zylstra and Magnusson are the weak links on the team. I believe Magnusson should/will likely redshirt. Since these two are players 12 and 13 (and only 12 can dress for games), it only makes sense to redshirt one of them. Zylstra has already redshirted.
I worry about the interior offense. Hartsock, who played some 5 last night (I hope it doesn't continue), has promise but looks like he's fresh off a mission. So does probable starting center Chris Miles. Problem is: they aren't fresh off missions and should be better by now. Anderson is a solid THIRD center. Davies is going to continue to be a black hole/vacuum, but, like I said earlier, he should definitely start. Hey, at least he puts it in the basket occasionally. Chris Miles should try that from time to time, particularly from inside 4 feet!
Tavernari got hot early, which was exciting. However, he kept shooting all game even after that early hot spell turned cold. I think this will continue to be a trend for him, as is his usual MO.
Two worries still: perimeter defense, interior scoring. Rebounding was a lot better last night. The boxing out was better from the big men and the guards got involved as well, which helped spark the fast break, especially with the Loyd/Morgan combination out there.
Brandon Davies is the best center on the team. I know he's just a freshman and I wouldn't overwork him and wear him down, but I would start him and play him at least 20 minutes a game. I didn't realize how bad Chris Miles is offensively or how slow defensively, until I could compare the two next to each other.
BYU played a lot of different lineups: some worked, some didn't. At one point in time, Noah Hartsock, Jackson Emery, and Logan Magnusson were on the floor together. Offensively, that was a nightmare. It might be one of the better defensive lineups, but it's not worth it for the total lack of production on the offensive end. There was a ton of speed when Michael Loyd and Lamon Morgan were both in the game at the same time. BYU was really able to push the ball. It is a smaller lineup defensively, but Loyd showed a couple of times that he can sky for the rebound. The one lineup I didn't see that I would like to, particularly against some of the guard-oriented teams in the MWC: Tavernari, Abouo, Haws, Emery, and Fredette. I realize that lineup is tiny, but that would be impossible to stop on the offensive side. All 5 can shoot the 3-ball, penetrate off the dribble, finish at the rim, and make free throws.
The defense was solid last night. The perimeter defense was a step slow on their rotation early but got it solved by halftime. The interior defense was phenomenal early but weren't quite as crisp in the second half. The freshman were particularly impressive, for freshman, on the defensive side of the ball. I do worry about Haws being taken off the dribble and I'm not sure how Davies will respond against a center that can post up.
It appears that Zylstra and Magnusson are the weak links on the team. I believe Magnusson should/will likely redshirt. Since these two are players 12 and 13 (and only 12 can dress for games), it only makes sense to redshirt one of them. Zylstra has already redshirted.
I worry about the interior offense. Hartsock, who played some 5 last night (I hope it doesn't continue), has promise but looks like he's fresh off a mission. So does probable starting center Chris Miles. Problem is: they aren't fresh off missions and should be better by now. Anderson is a solid THIRD center. Davies is going to continue to be a black hole/vacuum, but, like I said earlier, he should definitely start. Hey, at least he puts it in the basket occasionally. Chris Miles should try that from time to time, particularly from inside 4 feet!
Tavernari got hot early, which was exciting. However, he kept shooting all game even after that early hot spell turned cold. I think this will continue to be a trend for him, as is his usual MO.
Two worries still: perimeter defense, interior scoring. Rebounding was a lot better last night. The boxing out was better from the big men and the guards got involved as well, which helped spark the fast break, especially with the Loyd/Morgan combination out there.
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
NW makes me happy
Thank you to my Northwestern Wildcats. The very first D-I game I ever attended was in 1995, when Northwestern beat Iowa 31-20 at Evans Field in Evanston, Illinois. It was fantastic.
This week, after another great win over Iowa, they saved us all from another week of discussion about whether an undefeated Iowa would deserve a chance at a National Championship, despite their well-cataloged struggles against some pretty poor opponents. Iowa was going to lose to Ohio State this weekend anyway, but at least it doesn't have to be the hyped game of the weekend. Who would have thought that the game that will likely decide the MWC champion would steal the headlines from the game that decides the Big Ten champion?
Ohio State will win for a few reasons: 1) They are a better team. 2) No Ricky Stanzi means Ohio State D can focus on Iowa's rushing attack, where the Buckeye D is phenomenal anyway. 3) They are a better team. 4) The game is in Columbus. 5) They are a better team.
Ohio State dominated Penn State last week. This week probably won't be quite as dominant (mostly because EVERYBODY expects Ohio State to blow them out), but I don't believe the game will be in doubt in the 4th quarter.
The loser of this game drifts into that 13-20 ranking oblivion. It's not good enough for a BCS bowl, not bad enough to call it a "rebuilding" year (especially for Iowa). And so, Iowa fans, much like their neighboring state's Cubs fans, will have to be content with another season of dashed expectations.
This week, after another great win over Iowa, they saved us all from another week of discussion about whether an undefeated Iowa would deserve a chance at a National Championship, despite their well-cataloged struggles against some pretty poor opponents. Iowa was going to lose to Ohio State this weekend anyway, but at least it doesn't have to be the hyped game of the weekend. Who would have thought that the game that will likely decide the MWC champion would steal the headlines from the game that decides the Big Ten champion?
Ohio State will win for a few reasons: 1) They are a better team. 2) No Ricky Stanzi means Ohio State D can focus on Iowa's rushing attack, where the Buckeye D is phenomenal anyway. 3) They are a better team. 4) The game is in Columbus. 5) They are a better team.
Ohio State dominated Penn State last week. This week probably won't be quite as dominant (mostly because EVERYBODY expects Ohio State to blow them out), but I don't believe the game will be in doubt in the 4th quarter.
The loser of this game drifts into that 13-20 ranking oblivion. It's not good enough for a BCS bowl, not bad enough to call it a "rebuilding" year (especially for Iowa). And so, Iowa fans, much like their neighboring state's Cubs fans, will have to be content with another season of dashed expectations.
Feeling good about myself today
Well, BYU finally brought some pressure and it paid off. It was Wyoming, but still...they brought 5 guys frequently and even if they didn't get to the QB they made him dance in the pocket and made his job more difficult. It made it easier for the DBs, and so the coverage looked a lot better. The proof is in the stats, where BYU absolutely dominated. 0 points. 225 total yards. 3.8 yards/play. Was it that hard to bring 5 guys? Keep it up.
Another reason I'm happy with myself: Utah listened to me. I'm sure that's where they got the idea to start Jordan Wynn. And their offense finally looked as good as their fans think it is. I highlighted their offensive struggles and why there was no reason for it last week, stating that they should definitely start Wynn. They dropped 45 points, 10 more than their previous high this season. Granted, it was New Mexico, the worst team they have played this season. However, they have played some pretty poor defenses, so to get 10 more than they did against UNLV and Utah State, and 21 more than they did against Colorado State, is impressive.
Another reason I'm happy with myself: Utah listened to me. I'm sure that's where they got the idea to start Jordan Wynn. And their offense finally looked as good as their fans think it is. I highlighted their offensive struggles and why there was no reason for it last week, stating that they should definitely start Wynn. They dropped 45 points, 10 more than their previous high this season. Granted, it was New Mexico, the worst team they have played this season. However, they have played some pretty poor defenses, so to get 10 more than they did against UNLV and Utah State, and 21 more than they did against Colorado State, is impressive.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Is it hoops season yet?
Yes, it is. BYU played an exhibition game last week, has another one tomorrow, and they start the regular season at home against Bradley this Friday. While last week's game was an exhibition and didn't count for anything: there were 7 major things I learned about the Cougar basketball team from the event.
1) There are plenty of bodies to replace Lee Cummard, but none of them are anything close to Lee Cummard. Charles Abouo got the start. Tyler Haws played quite a bit at the 3. Logan Magnusson also got some garbage minutes in there (and they looked like garbage, if you ask me). All are pretty decent players with varied strengths, but they are not nearly as well-rounded or potentially impactful as Cummard was his final two seasons. Or his first two seasons for that matter.
2) The new guys certainly have confidence. Brandon Davies had a monstrous dunk in the first half. He showed the ability to use his post moves to get good shots. However, he could not make them. Tyler Haws showed quickness and good defensive capabilities. He has a quick release, but it looked a little too quick as his shooting percentage left a lot to be desired. Magnusson logged some minutes: I hope he doesn't do that too much more... All of the new guys shot early in their appearances: some learned and held off pulling the trigger so fast, others didn't. I was impressed with all 3 of them on the defensive side of the ball. Brock Zylstra didn't play enough to get a feel for his abilities. Of course, maybe that was by design...
3) The boxing out needs to be improved as they play bigger, tougher, faster, stronger teams. The BYU players were getting pushed pretty deep under the basket as they tried to box out. Part of that is getting in game shape, which they aren't in yet. Which brings me to the next struggle:
4) Free throw shooting stunk up the place. 55%? Not good enough. And it wasn't like the big men shot most of the free throws. It was the guards that were missing the bulk. Get some legs fast.
5) The inside presence on offense is a concern. Davies has decent size/bulk and good moves, but not a good shot. James Anderson has height and a good shot, but not good moves to get open. Chris Miles: no moves, no shot, but he is really big. Davies was a black hole: once the ball went in, it wasn't coming back out. If teams know they can just focus on perimeter defense, it gets easier to shut BYU down. They need more here. Even getting Jonathan Tavernari to post up occasionally will open up the outside somewhat.
6) Jonathan Tavernari still hasn't improved his shot selection. On fast breaks he runs to the corner three area, even if he has the ball. In the offense, if he gets it with his feet anywhere near good shooting position: it's going up. When he's hot, BYU fans will love it. The rest of the time, they'll just hope it doesn't cost them the game.
7) There is some speed on the team (at least at the 1 and 2). Jackson Emery looked light on his feet. Michael Loyd and Lamont Morgan Jr were just plain fast. Jimmer Fredette's dribbling skills make him look fast. He certainly will lead the team in "ankle-breakers" again this season.
Catch BYU on Tuesday in their second exhibition game hosting Central Washington at 7pm MT, available on BYUTV. The audio should be streamable on KSL.com as well.
1) There are plenty of bodies to replace Lee Cummard, but none of them are anything close to Lee Cummard. Charles Abouo got the start. Tyler Haws played quite a bit at the 3. Logan Magnusson also got some garbage minutes in there (and they looked like garbage, if you ask me). All are pretty decent players with varied strengths, but they are not nearly as well-rounded or potentially impactful as Cummard was his final two seasons. Or his first two seasons for that matter.
2) The new guys certainly have confidence. Brandon Davies had a monstrous dunk in the first half. He showed the ability to use his post moves to get good shots. However, he could not make them. Tyler Haws showed quickness and good defensive capabilities. He has a quick release, but it looked a little too quick as his shooting percentage left a lot to be desired. Magnusson logged some minutes: I hope he doesn't do that too much more... All of the new guys shot early in their appearances: some learned and held off pulling the trigger so fast, others didn't. I was impressed with all 3 of them on the defensive side of the ball. Brock Zylstra didn't play enough to get a feel for his abilities. Of course, maybe that was by design...
3) The boxing out needs to be improved as they play bigger, tougher, faster, stronger teams. The BYU players were getting pushed pretty deep under the basket as they tried to box out. Part of that is getting in game shape, which they aren't in yet. Which brings me to the next struggle:
4) Free throw shooting stunk up the place. 55%? Not good enough. And it wasn't like the big men shot most of the free throws. It was the guards that were missing the bulk. Get some legs fast.
5) The inside presence on offense is a concern. Davies has decent size/bulk and good moves, but not a good shot. James Anderson has height and a good shot, but not good moves to get open. Chris Miles: no moves, no shot, but he is really big. Davies was a black hole: once the ball went in, it wasn't coming back out. If teams know they can just focus on perimeter defense, it gets easier to shut BYU down. They need more here. Even getting Jonathan Tavernari to post up occasionally will open up the outside somewhat.
6) Jonathan Tavernari still hasn't improved his shot selection. On fast breaks he runs to the corner three area, even if he has the ball. In the offense, if he gets it with his feet anywhere near good shooting position: it's going up. When he's hot, BYU fans will love it. The rest of the time, they'll just hope it doesn't cost them the game.
7) There is some speed on the team (at least at the 1 and 2). Jackson Emery looked light on his feet. Michael Loyd and Lamont Morgan Jr were just plain fast. Jimmer Fredette's dribbling skills make him look fast. He certainly will lead the team in "ankle-breakers" again this season.
Catch BYU on Tuesday in their second exhibition game hosting Central Washington at 7pm MT, available on BYUTV. The audio should be streamable on KSL.com as well.
What's with the MWC
This week, Game Day heads to Fort Worth for the showdown between TCU and Utah. Three weeks back they headed to Provo and last week they were at the Air Force Academy. Three trips from Game Day to MWC schools. Maybe THIS will put some pressure on the MWC to get their TV deals worked out. ESPN is bringing notoriety and publicity to the conference, it's time for the University Presidents to get on board and get something done that will help sustain it.
I really believe TCU will win this game, and win it big. If they win out, they will more than likely finish in the top 3 in the BCS standings (unless Florida's only loss is in the SEC Championship Game to an undefeated Alabama team: I think they would probably jump Bama if Bama's only loss is to Florida). There are certainly possibilities of moving into the top 2, but I think it unlikely. I think if Texas lost, they could jump them, assuming it was to a very inferior opponent, perhaps needing to be in the Big 12 Championship game. Any loss prior to that could be overcome with a win in the Big 12 Championship. As far as jumping Alabama or Florida, they won't jump the SEC champion, unless that team happens to lose TWICE before that game. As with Texas, the team that wins the SEC championship game will be able to overcome an earlier loss, should they have one.
I think Cincinnati will be out of this discussion: I believe they will lose either this weekend to West Virginia or at Pittsburgh on December 5th. Boise State does get a 13th game, which might help a little, except that their extra game was played against a I-AA opponent (because they didn't decide to actually play the NCAA-approved 13th game until it was too late to get a I-A opponent), so I don't think TCU has to be worried about getting past from behind. Even Georgia Tech running the table probably wouldn't be enough to pass TCU. No big games left on the schedule: including the ACC championship game, which would, at best, be against Clemson, who entered the top 25 this week for the first time since early last year. I am not sure Clemson can survive the game against rival South Carolina, so they probably won't be ranked by then anyway...Both teams have already defeated Clemson.
I really believe TCU will win this game, and win it big. If they win out, they will more than likely finish in the top 3 in the BCS standings (unless Florida's only loss is in the SEC Championship Game to an undefeated Alabama team: I think they would probably jump Bama if Bama's only loss is to Florida). There are certainly possibilities of moving into the top 2, but I think it unlikely. I think if Texas lost, they could jump them, assuming it was to a very inferior opponent, perhaps needing to be in the Big 12 Championship game. Any loss prior to that could be overcome with a win in the Big 12 Championship. As far as jumping Alabama or Florida, they won't jump the SEC champion, unless that team happens to lose TWICE before that game. As with Texas, the team that wins the SEC championship game will be able to overcome an earlier loss, should they have one.
I think Cincinnati will be out of this discussion: I believe they will lose either this weekend to West Virginia or at Pittsburgh on December 5th. Boise State does get a 13th game, which might help a little, except that their extra game was played against a I-AA opponent (because they didn't decide to actually play the NCAA-approved 13th game until it was too late to get a I-A opponent), so I don't think TCU has to be worried about getting past from behind. Even Georgia Tech running the table probably wouldn't be enough to pass TCU. No big games left on the schedule: including the ACC championship game, which would, at best, be against Clemson, who entered the top 25 this week for the first time since early last year. I am not sure Clemson can survive the game against rival South Carolina, so they probably won't be ranked by then anyway...Both teams have already defeated Clemson.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
The BCS Top Ten
It'll probably look something like this:
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Cincinnati
TCU
Boise State
Georgia Tech
USC
Pittsburgh
Ohio State
I think Iowa will be severely punished by the voters after so many near-misses, finally missing. Ohio State will pick up some steam after winning at Penn State so convincingly. I am interested to see how the 10th spot goes though: you have Ohio State coming from 16, I think they get the top spot. However, you have Utah, who blew New Mexico out, that could grab the 10th spot. But by merely playing that game, it hurts their computer ranking, which was previously good enough to pull them from 17th in the polls to 14th in the BCS. Houston, currently at 15, eked out a W over Tulsa after recovering an onside kick with 20 seconds left and kicking a 51-yard field goal with a freshman kicker. Crazy ending. They also have a shot at the 10th spot. Margin of victory won't matter to the computers, but it probably will to the voters. I think Ohio State does pull out that 10th spot with all that. Iowa drops below all three, as does Oregon.
TCU might jump Cincy, but they have a lot of ground to make up to get there, so I don't think they'll get there this week. They could next week though. Make up a little this week, then take down number 11 Utah, that might be enough to do it. Although, Cincy does have a big Big East matchup with West Virginia next week...anyway, should be an interesting next few weeks.
Florida
Alabama
Texas
Cincinnati
TCU
Boise State
Georgia Tech
USC
Pittsburgh
Ohio State
I think Iowa will be severely punished by the voters after so many near-misses, finally missing. Ohio State will pick up some steam after winning at Penn State so convincingly. I am interested to see how the 10th spot goes though: you have Ohio State coming from 16, I think they get the top spot. However, you have Utah, who blew New Mexico out, that could grab the 10th spot. But by merely playing that game, it hurts their computer ranking, which was previously good enough to pull them from 17th in the polls to 14th in the BCS. Houston, currently at 15, eked out a W over Tulsa after recovering an onside kick with 20 seconds left and kicking a 51-yard field goal with a freshman kicker. Crazy ending. They also have a shot at the 10th spot. Margin of victory won't matter to the computers, but it probably will to the voters. I think Ohio State does pull out that 10th spot with all that. Iowa drops below all three, as does Oregon.
TCU might jump Cincy, but they have a lot of ground to make up to get there, so I don't think they'll get there this week. They could next week though. Make up a little this week, then take down number 11 Utah, that might be enough to do it. Although, Cincy does have a big Big East matchup with West Virginia next week...anyway, should be an interesting next few weeks.
Replay
Why do they even have instant replay in college football? I think they miss it as much as they get it right. Latest example: LSU interception against Alabama. He gets TWO feet in, and they don't overturn the play. As a result, Alabama kicks a field goal and seals the win. A guy makes a play, a game-changing play, and the replay official in the Crimson-colored hat can't get the call right. How will the SEC spin this newest horrid piece of officiating? I'm smelling a Les Miles fine coming out on Monday.
Friday, November 6, 2009
BYU and weekend preview
They have had a week off to lick their wounds. They have gotten healthier. Hopefully they have figured out their identity a little bit. The TCU game showed me that they don't know who they are offensively. Max Hall was throwing the deep ball once a possession, something he usually does once a quarter or so to keep the D honest. The ball did not get spread around like usual. Not a lot of people were involved in the O. Unga was getting the lion's share of the carries.
My thoughts on the D were expressed earlier. They need to get more aggressive if they are going to pull off 4 straight to finish the season. Wyoming hasn't looked great offensively, so this might be a chance to get a little confidence. Of course, if they give up too many yards/points to Wyoming's O, that might do more to hurt confidence than help it.
BYU is the better team, but Wyoming considers this a rivalry game, so they will be hyped up. I expect a better game than I want to see: BYU 27, Wyoming 20.
Iowa over Northwestern, 31-10. Without Kafka at 100%, NW will falter, like they did down the stretch last week.
Miami over Virginia, 24-17. Virginia is improving, Miami peaked a few weeks back...
Arkansas 24, South Carolina 13. Spurrier needs to figure out a way to score.
Kansas over K-State, 38-34. For offensive fireworks, tune in here: neither team plays much defense to speak of.
Texas A&M over Colorado, 38-24. The question is: can CU afford to buy Dan Hawkins out of the rest of his contract: not with the attendance numbers they'll be pulling down the stretch...
Notre Dame over Navy, 27-17. Fight Middies, fight.
Stanford over Oregon, 34-24. The feared let-down game. Stanford is undefeated at home.
Iowa State over Oklahoma State, 42-34. Another high-scoring Big 12 matchup. OK State hasn't looked good since week 1, really.
Ohio State over Penn State, 17-10. Two good defenses? Or two bad offenses? Pryor trumps Clark as they get prepped to lay a beating on Iowa next week.
Alabama gets one more field goal than LSU, 15-12. OK, just kidding. LSU 24, Bama 10. One man can only carry an offense for so long. Unless Engram really is the Heisman winner.
Utah over New Mexico, 41-10. Finally, the Utes Wynn big. Should have started this frosh a long time ago.
Cal over Oregon State, 38-20.
Houston outslings Tulsa, 59-49. Don't blink, you might miss two TDs.
OU wins at Nebraska, 31-13. OU hasn't had problems moving the ball, just scoring points. OU's D has been pretty good too...
Fresno State ends Idaho's run, 38-34. This actually wouldn't be a bad game to attend, if you're near Moscow, Idaho this weekend: stop on by!
Air Force beats Army, 38-13. Gotta feel bad for our soldiers in the Army. First, they get an indecisive commander, then they go 0-2 against the other service academies in football. I wish they could catch a break. They will: they play VMI next weekend, and Barack will possibly, maybe, next week, make some kind of decision about troop levels in Afghanistan: pull them out or send more in, I don't care which, but to stay uncommitted is suicide for our soldiers.
Have a nice weekend, all.
My thoughts on the D were expressed earlier. They need to get more aggressive if they are going to pull off 4 straight to finish the season. Wyoming hasn't looked great offensively, so this might be a chance to get a little confidence. Of course, if they give up too many yards/points to Wyoming's O, that might do more to hurt confidence than help it.
BYU is the better team, but Wyoming considers this a rivalry game, so they will be hyped up. I expect a better game than I want to see: BYU 27, Wyoming 20.
Iowa over Northwestern, 31-10. Without Kafka at 100%, NW will falter, like they did down the stretch last week.
Miami over Virginia, 24-17. Virginia is improving, Miami peaked a few weeks back...
Arkansas 24, South Carolina 13. Spurrier needs to figure out a way to score.
Kansas over K-State, 38-34. For offensive fireworks, tune in here: neither team plays much defense to speak of.
Texas A&M over Colorado, 38-24. The question is: can CU afford to buy Dan Hawkins out of the rest of his contract: not with the attendance numbers they'll be pulling down the stretch...
Notre Dame over Navy, 27-17. Fight Middies, fight.
Stanford over Oregon, 34-24. The feared let-down game. Stanford is undefeated at home.
Iowa State over Oklahoma State, 42-34. Another high-scoring Big 12 matchup. OK State hasn't looked good since week 1, really.
Ohio State over Penn State, 17-10. Two good defenses? Or two bad offenses? Pryor trumps Clark as they get prepped to lay a beating on Iowa next week.
Alabama gets one more field goal than LSU, 15-12. OK, just kidding. LSU 24, Bama 10. One man can only carry an offense for so long. Unless Engram really is the Heisman winner.
Utah over New Mexico, 41-10. Finally, the Utes Wynn big. Should have started this frosh a long time ago.
Cal over Oregon State, 38-20.
Houston outslings Tulsa, 59-49. Don't blink, you might miss two TDs.
OU wins at Nebraska, 31-13. OU hasn't had problems moving the ball, just scoring points. OU's D has been pretty good too...
Fresno State ends Idaho's run, 38-34. This actually wouldn't be a bad game to attend, if you're near Moscow, Idaho this weekend: stop on by!
Air Force beats Army, 38-13. Gotta feel bad for our soldiers in the Army. First, they get an indecisive commander, then they go 0-2 against the other service academies in football. I wish they could catch a break. They will: they play VMI next weekend, and Barack will possibly, maybe, next week, make some kind of decision about troop levels in Afghanistan: pull them out or send more in, I don't care which, but to stay uncommitted is suicide for our soldiers.
Have a nice weekend, all.
Weekend predictions
Boise State over La Tech, 38-13. Big stage, big game, not too far from the Big Easy. Boise State needs a dominating performance on National TV. They are THE only game of the night: go big or go home (from a crappy bowl game in December instead of a big money post-New Year's day bowl). I think they do get the job done in a big way tonight. It could be close early, but right now Boise State is playing like a possessed demon-child doing the devil's will. Go bust up that BCS, son...
I'll get to the rest later. Had to get that one out there...
I'll get to the rest later. Had to get that one out there...
Editor's Note
I neglected to include the New Mexico Bowl in the tie-ins for the Mountain West Conference. This bowl is given selection PRIOR to the Humanitarian Bowl. Given the 5th bowl tie-in, Mo Knows see very little chance that the MWC will be able to fill its bowl slots. The only scenario for it to happen involve TCU not making a BCS bowl and the SDSU-Wyoming winner becoming bowl eligible. I'm not sure either of those happens but I certainly don't think BOTH will happen. I have been wrong before though: as several of you have pointed out! No MWC team in the Humanitarian Bowl.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Closer Look
South Florida received a BCS scoring of .07863 to get in to the top 25. BYU's BCS scoring comes in at .06987, so they are less than 9 thousandths of a point outside the top 25. A win this week over Wyoming would get them back into the top 25. A loss this week would pretty much end all discussion that BYU belongs there.
For those KU fans out there, you are ranked at number 41 with a BCS scoring of 8 ten-thousandths of a point. This is the highest for any Big 12 North team, including Nebraska, K-State, and Mizzou. Remember when the Big 12 North had a top 10 team year in and year out?
For those KU fans out there, you are ranked at number 41 with a BCS scoring of 8 ten-thousandths of a point. This is the highest for any Big 12 North team, including Nebraska, K-State, and Mizzou. Remember when the Big 12 North had a top 10 team year in and year out?
Congrats are in order
For the New York Yankees. As soon as the Dodgers got eliminated from the playoffs, the only team that could match up with the Yankees was out. So they did what they should have done: walk through the playoffs with little resistance. Realistically, this was more like an All-Star team than an actual team: most of the guys on the team are in the top 3-5 at their position in the game today. So congrats on number 27. I'm especially glad it came with Joe Girardi as coach: that guy is a class act. Too bad he coaches for the Yanks...
I'm surprised Obama hasn't taken shots at the Yankees for their huge compensatory practices in this down economy: must be because baseball has a players' union so it's OK to make that much. It's not evil capitalism at work, it's very-not-evil unionization. Too bad, in the end, after all the flowery speeches and promises, he's just another uber-"progressive" politician like the rest of them. Nothing more, nothing less.
I'm surprised Obama hasn't taken shots at the Yankees for their huge compensatory practices in this down economy: must be because baseball has a players' union so it's OK to make that much. It's not evil capitalism at work, it's very-not-evil unionization. Too bad, in the end, after all the flowery speeches and promises, he's just another uber-"progressive" politician like the rest of them. Nothing more, nothing less.
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Getting Defensive
Remember the week after BYU laid a beating on Tulane, a week after upsetting Oklahoma. Kirk Herbstreit said BYU had a tenacious defense, a solid offense, etc. He put BYU at #5 in his AP poll for that week. Every BYU fan I know was excited. We finally had a D to go with our typically potent O. Against TCU, the O looked more impotent. And the D hasn't had a dominating performance since the second week of the season.
What has changed? The personnel and coaching staffs are the same, other than ONE significant injury. The whole coaching approach has changed.
Against Oklahoma, BYU brought 5 or 6 guys frequently. They brought two guys in the same gap, or they lined 3 guys up over the tackle and he didn't know which one to block, even if BYU only rushed 1 of the 3. On the play when Sam Bradford got hurt, OU had 2 linemen blocking 3 guys on the left side, and 3 linemen blocking 1 guy on the right. That's a confused O-line and coaching staff. Result: getting pressure on the QB so your DBs don't have to be as good.
Now: BYU brings 4, MAYBE a 5th one. But there is no disguising the blitz. The O-line and the QB knows exactly who is coming and what gap they are trying to come through. That makes it easy to get the right play call and the right blocking scheme.
Against Oklahoma, the CBs moved up and back: sometimes they were up near the line of scrimmage, sometimes they were 5 yards off, other times they were 10 yards off. Sometimes the corners took the flat, sometimes they had deep, sometimes they played man.
Now: BYU's CBs are between 7-10 yards off the ball. They always have deep third. There is no man coverage. There is no bump, there is no mixing it up. There is no confusion. You give a Division-I WR a 10-yard cushion and a D-I QB 4-7 seconds to throw the ball, and you are going to give up a lot of yards and a lot of big plays. And you aren't going to get a lot of stops.
That is BYU's D now. It is good enough to beat the bottom half of the MWC, but, as we've seen, it isn't even close to good enough to beat TCU, Florida State, and it won't be good enough against Utah. High risk, high reward: that was Bronco's philosophy as a D-Coordinator. Now he subscribes to the low risk, low reward philosophy. It will cost BYU at least one more game this season if it doesn't change. Don't get me wrong: I love Bronco Mendenhall, I love what he was done with this program. But I don't love the sit back and wait for them to screw up strategy, especially against athletically superior and better-coached opponents. I miss his mindset. I miss his suicide blitzes. I miss the safety getting in the backfield. I miss the defensive players running the option down the field after a turnover. BYU needs to get aggressive on defense again. Otherwise, TCU and Utah will run away with this conference for the foreseeable future. BYU will become the buffer between the Horned Frogs/Utes and the rest of the conference.
What has changed? The personnel and coaching staffs are the same, other than ONE significant injury. The whole coaching approach has changed.
Against Oklahoma, BYU brought 5 or 6 guys frequently. They brought two guys in the same gap, or they lined 3 guys up over the tackle and he didn't know which one to block, even if BYU only rushed 1 of the 3. On the play when Sam Bradford got hurt, OU had 2 linemen blocking 3 guys on the left side, and 3 linemen blocking 1 guy on the right. That's a confused O-line and coaching staff. Result: getting pressure on the QB so your DBs don't have to be as good.
Now: BYU brings 4, MAYBE a 5th one. But there is no disguising the blitz. The O-line and the QB knows exactly who is coming and what gap they are trying to come through. That makes it easy to get the right play call and the right blocking scheme.
Against Oklahoma, the CBs moved up and back: sometimes they were up near the line of scrimmage, sometimes they were 5 yards off, other times they were 10 yards off. Sometimes the corners took the flat, sometimes they had deep, sometimes they played man.
Now: BYU's CBs are between 7-10 yards off the ball. They always have deep third. There is no man coverage. There is no bump, there is no mixing it up. There is no confusion. You give a Division-I WR a 10-yard cushion and a D-I QB 4-7 seconds to throw the ball, and you are going to give up a lot of yards and a lot of big plays. And you aren't going to get a lot of stops.
That is BYU's D now. It is good enough to beat the bottom half of the MWC, but, as we've seen, it isn't even close to good enough to beat TCU, Florida State, and it won't be good enough against Utah. High risk, high reward: that was Bronco's philosophy as a D-Coordinator. Now he subscribes to the low risk, low reward philosophy. It will cost BYU at least one more game this season if it doesn't change. Don't get me wrong: I love Bronco Mendenhall, I love what he was done with this program. But I don't love the sit back and wait for them to screw up strategy, especially against athletically superior and better-coached opponents. I miss his mindset. I miss his suicide blitzes. I miss the safety getting in the backfield. I miss the defensive players running the option down the field after a turnover. BYU needs to get aggressive on defense again. Otherwise, TCU and Utah will run away with this conference for the foreseeable future. BYU will become the buffer between the Horned Frogs/Utes and the rest of the conference.
A Brief Reprieve
WARNING: the next post will be a political diatribe (or rambling, depending on how you view it).
The media has made a big stink about Governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia and whether it is a referendum on Obama and his agenda.
Dumb Republican strategists give you the party line: it absolutely is, no doubt about it, people across the country are fed up and it's showing up in these gubernatorial races. And they look and sound like idiots in their response: people across the country aren't voting in these races, unless they are ACORN employees...
Then you get blind Democratic strategists who give you the excuse: the party in power ALWAYS loses these elections. It's no big deal. It means absolutely nothing. Then they point to the Conservative party candidate in NY District 23 losing and talk about how the Republican party is falling apart and it keeps kicking its own members out. They sound just as unintelligible as their Republican counterparts. You can't just blow it off and say: look at how divided their party is. Their divided party just kicked your butt in Virginia and New Jersey and a Conservative in a Moderate district gave you a run for your money: if they can do that divided, imagine how they will do if and when they unite.
It doesn't mean everything: it isn't a total referendum, Reps. It isn't something to completely blow off either, Dems, like you did with Tea Parties and Townhalls, etc. It is, however, equivalent to firing a warning shot for ALL parties: stop selling my children out. Colin Powell said during the 2008 election season that people were willing to pay for the services offered to them by the government. This is a warning that people are willing to pay for services they WANT (not for all the services the government is willing to provide/spend our money on) and that the government can afford to pay for RIGHT NOW. In other words, PEOPLE are willing to pay for productive and needful services, but they are not willing to let their children pay for it any more. This has been happening on too grand a scale for far too long and its speed and size have doubled in Obama's first year and only promises to get worse with Cap and Trade (will cripple the economy and actually reduce tax revenues while raising energy costs on the American people), the current form of the Health Care bill (will inevitably be paid for by FUTURE taxpayers because it doesn't have much in it to reduce the cost, only to shift who is paying the cost), and the discussion of a second stimulus bill (increasing spending and reducing tax revenue: bigger deficit).
As far as the "Big Tent" philosophy and how there is a fight amongst the Republican party. The Dems opened their party tent to everybody, and independents went flocking to it because they saw a lot of great ideas. However, this election shows that: if you come under the Democratic tent you get EVERYTHING that comes with it, whether you like it or not. So Independents left the tent this time around because they don't want the extremism of the Democratic party. THIS TIME, they went to Republicans: however, they won't be satisfied with the extremism of that party either. You can't really have a stable big tent. People come and go, so just stick to your values and explain your positions with facts, not with George Bush- or Al Gore-style scare tactics. Al, the earth is cooling but greenhouse gas emissions are rising. How does that fit in with your computer model?
In 2004, the Democrats were supposed to have a banner year: defeat George Bush, take control over Congress, etc. They lost. People asked the question: where does the Democratic party go from here? Obvious identity crisis, how will they recover, etc. Go back to CNN post-2004 election coverage and you'll see it there. It was a devastating defeat: I think James Carville was in tears, or close to it. They came back, though. They returned stronger in 2006. Obama brought them all the way back in 2008. But: what if there was no Barack Obama? Where would the Democratic party be right now? They say it's about ideas, not the man. But if it is, why haven't any of their ideas been able to pass through Congress other than the stimulus bill and the takeover of GM? And why didn't their ideas win at the ballot box this year, when his name wasn't on any of those ballots? All the Republicans need to come back is an eloquent candidate that is loved by the media with no actual voting record that can be criticized...
On a final note: the most crushing part about another loss for gay marriage advocates is not the fact that it is their 31st consecutive loss at the ballot box. The part that hurts their cause the most, as it always does, is their reaction. It always sounds something like: I cannot believe all those hateful, bigoted, selfish, gun and religion-clinging hicks; why do they hate me so much; they are so full of hate it makes me want to strangle them. They might start winning a few of these as soon as they start to see the hypocrisy in their responses. Be a gracious loser for once and you might get some empathy/sympathy from the undecideds.
The media has made a big stink about Governor's races in New Jersey and Virginia and whether it is a referendum on Obama and his agenda.
Dumb Republican strategists give you the party line: it absolutely is, no doubt about it, people across the country are fed up and it's showing up in these gubernatorial races. And they look and sound like idiots in their response: people across the country aren't voting in these races, unless they are ACORN employees...
Then you get blind Democratic strategists who give you the excuse: the party in power ALWAYS loses these elections. It's no big deal. It means absolutely nothing. Then they point to the Conservative party candidate in NY District 23 losing and talk about how the Republican party is falling apart and it keeps kicking its own members out. They sound just as unintelligible as their Republican counterparts. You can't just blow it off and say: look at how divided their party is. Their divided party just kicked your butt in Virginia and New Jersey and a Conservative in a Moderate district gave you a run for your money: if they can do that divided, imagine how they will do if and when they unite.
It doesn't mean everything: it isn't a total referendum, Reps. It isn't something to completely blow off either, Dems, like you did with Tea Parties and Townhalls, etc. It is, however, equivalent to firing a warning shot for ALL parties: stop selling my children out. Colin Powell said during the 2008 election season that people were willing to pay for the services offered to them by the government. This is a warning that people are willing to pay for services they WANT (not for all the services the government is willing to provide/spend our money on) and that the government can afford to pay for RIGHT NOW. In other words, PEOPLE are willing to pay for productive and needful services, but they are not willing to let their children pay for it any more. This has been happening on too grand a scale for far too long and its speed and size have doubled in Obama's first year and only promises to get worse with Cap and Trade (will cripple the economy and actually reduce tax revenues while raising energy costs on the American people), the current form of the Health Care bill (will inevitably be paid for by FUTURE taxpayers because it doesn't have much in it to reduce the cost, only to shift who is paying the cost), and the discussion of a second stimulus bill (increasing spending and reducing tax revenue: bigger deficit).
As far as the "Big Tent" philosophy and how there is a fight amongst the Republican party. The Dems opened their party tent to everybody, and independents went flocking to it because they saw a lot of great ideas. However, this election shows that: if you come under the Democratic tent you get EVERYTHING that comes with it, whether you like it or not. So Independents left the tent this time around because they don't want the extremism of the Democratic party. THIS TIME, they went to Republicans: however, they won't be satisfied with the extremism of that party either. You can't really have a stable big tent. People come and go, so just stick to your values and explain your positions with facts, not with George Bush- or Al Gore-style scare tactics. Al, the earth is cooling but greenhouse gas emissions are rising. How does that fit in with your computer model?
In 2004, the Democrats were supposed to have a banner year: defeat George Bush, take control over Congress, etc. They lost. People asked the question: where does the Democratic party go from here? Obvious identity crisis, how will they recover, etc. Go back to CNN post-2004 election coverage and you'll see it there. It was a devastating defeat: I think James Carville was in tears, or close to it. They came back, though. They returned stronger in 2006. Obama brought them all the way back in 2008. But: what if there was no Barack Obama? Where would the Democratic party be right now? They say it's about ideas, not the man. But if it is, why haven't any of their ideas been able to pass through Congress other than the stimulus bill and the takeover of GM? And why didn't their ideas win at the ballot box this year, when his name wasn't on any of those ballots? All the Republicans need to come back is an eloquent candidate that is loved by the media with no actual voting record that can be criticized...
On a final note: the most crushing part about another loss for gay marriage advocates is not the fact that it is their 31st consecutive loss at the ballot box. The part that hurts their cause the most, as it always does, is their reaction. It always sounds something like: I cannot believe all those hateful, bigoted, selfish, gun and religion-clinging hicks; why do they hate me so much; they are so full of hate it makes me want to strangle them. They might start winning a few of these as soon as they start to see the hypocrisy in their responses. Be a gracious loser for once and you might get some empathy/sympathy from the undecideds.
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
MWC Bowl Outlook
3 teams are bowl eligible: TCU, Utah, and BYU. Air Force is one win away, with games against Army, UNLV, and BYU. It's very likely they go 2-1, to finish 7-5. The MWC has 4 bowl tie-ins, and looks to have 4 solid bowl teams.
TCU is currently in line to go to a BCS game, leaving 3 "for sure" teams to fill 4 bowl spots. San Diego State and Wyoming are both 4-4, but both have to play 2 of the "Big Three" still and both are currently 0-1 against them. I anticipate that will take each of their loss totals to 6, meaning they have to go 2-0 in their other games to get to that 6th win. Since they play each other, only one of them will have a real chance at getting bowl eligible. If SDSU wins the head-to-head, they just have to beat UNLV on the road to get to 6 wins. However, last year, UNLV just needed to beat lowly SDSU to get bowl eligible and the Aztecs spoiled the party. Payback sucks. If Wyoming wins the head-to-head, they have to beat rival Colorado State on the road. That is certainly a possibility, especially considering CSU's play of late. Both UNLV and Colorado State are 3-6 and COULD get bowl eligible by winning the rest of their games. However, they play each other (game at UNLV). UNLV plays at Air Force still. CSU has that game with Wyoming and travels to winless New Mexico.
Barring SDSU upsetting Utah or Wyoming knocking off BYU, I don't think any of those 4 teams will actually get to 6 wins. If I had to pick one, San Diego State gets the edge in my book: beating Wyoming at home and UNLV on the road will be an easier task than Wyoming winning at SDSU and at CSU. CSU and UNLV will not win 3 straight to get eligible: take that to the bank. In reality, I think the MWC will have 4 bowl teams, but may not fill its 4 bowl slots if TCU goes BCS bowling.
The bowls pick teams in the following order: Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian. Utah goes to Vegas against Pac 10 5th place: Stanford or Oregon State I think. BYU goes to the Poinsettia against Pac 10 6th place: Stanford or Oregon State. Air Force to the Armed Forces Bowl against a C-USA team, which I don't even want to attempt to venture a guess at. SDSU, or Wyoming should either get bowl eligible, would go to the Humanitarian Bowl against a WAC opponent, likely to be Nevada or Idaho. Since the Humanitarian Bowl is played in Boise, Idaho, my guess is they would do everything they can to get Idaho for its first bowl game in over a decade.
If TCU goes to a BCS game, the MWC goes 2-1 (or 2-2 with SDSU, 3-1 with Wyoming) in non-BCS games. I can't venture a guess on the outcome of TCU's BCS game since I have no idea what bowl they would play in or whom they would be playing. If TCU does not go to a BCS Bowl, the MWC goes 4-0 as you shift everyone down one game: TCU/Utah to Vegas, TCU/Utah to Poinsettia, BYU to Armed Forces, Air Force to Humanitarian, where all of them emerge victorious.
TCU is currently in line to go to a BCS game, leaving 3 "for sure" teams to fill 4 bowl spots. San Diego State and Wyoming are both 4-4, but both have to play 2 of the "Big Three" still and both are currently 0-1 against them. I anticipate that will take each of their loss totals to 6, meaning they have to go 2-0 in their other games to get to that 6th win. Since they play each other, only one of them will have a real chance at getting bowl eligible. If SDSU wins the head-to-head, they just have to beat UNLV on the road to get to 6 wins. However, last year, UNLV just needed to beat lowly SDSU to get bowl eligible and the Aztecs spoiled the party. Payback sucks. If Wyoming wins the head-to-head, they have to beat rival Colorado State on the road. That is certainly a possibility, especially considering CSU's play of late. Both UNLV and Colorado State are 3-6 and COULD get bowl eligible by winning the rest of their games. However, they play each other (game at UNLV). UNLV plays at Air Force still. CSU has that game with Wyoming and travels to winless New Mexico.
Barring SDSU upsetting Utah or Wyoming knocking off BYU, I don't think any of those 4 teams will actually get to 6 wins. If I had to pick one, San Diego State gets the edge in my book: beating Wyoming at home and UNLV on the road will be an easier task than Wyoming winning at SDSU and at CSU. CSU and UNLV will not win 3 straight to get eligible: take that to the bank. In reality, I think the MWC will have 4 bowl teams, but may not fill its 4 bowl slots if TCU goes BCS bowling.
The bowls pick teams in the following order: Las Vegas, Poinsettia, Armed Forces, and Humanitarian. Utah goes to Vegas against Pac 10 5th place: Stanford or Oregon State I think. BYU goes to the Poinsettia against Pac 10 6th place: Stanford or Oregon State. Air Force to the Armed Forces Bowl against a C-USA team, which I don't even want to attempt to venture a guess at. SDSU, or Wyoming should either get bowl eligible, would go to the Humanitarian Bowl against a WAC opponent, likely to be Nevada or Idaho. Since the Humanitarian Bowl is played in Boise, Idaho, my guess is they would do everything they can to get Idaho for its first bowl game in over a decade.
If TCU goes to a BCS game, the MWC goes 2-1 (or 2-2 with SDSU, 3-1 with Wyoming) in non-BCS games. I can't venture a guess on the outcome of TCU's BCS game since I have no idea what bowl they would play in or whom they would be playing. If TCU does not go to a BCS Bowl, the MWC goes 4-0 as you shift everyone down one game: TCU/Utah to Vegas, TCU/Utah to Poinsettia, BYU to Armed Forces, Air Force to Humanitarian, where all of them emerge victorious.
Ridiculous
The 16th-ranked (14th in the BCS) Utah Utes, at 7-1, pull another Kyle-ism. Heading to play the totally clueless, non-competitive, 0-8 New Mexico Lobos, the Utes find themselves in the midst of a quarterback controversy. Again. This time, as they did earlier this season, they will not name a starter until the first offensive snap, so the opposition won't know who to prepare for. Are you kidding me, K-Whit? They are 0-8, losing by an average of over 25 points a game. Only twice have they lost by less than 10, and they have played some pretty bad teams. You could tell them what play you are running each time and still win this game. He may be a great coach, wonderful at X's and O's, good at recruiting the states of Texas and California, but he's an idiot when it comes to stuff like this.
In reality, I am sure it has nothing to do with New Mexico, as he claims. I think he just doesn't want TCU to know 2 weeks ahead of time who he is planning to start, because it will probably be the same next week at TCU. He wants to make sure the Horned Frogs have one week, and only one week, to prepare for what the Utes will bring on offense (besides complete ineptness, total chaos, and sheer lack of execution for 3 of the 4 quarters despite being the second most talented O in the conference behind TCU). Still, I think it's dumb, just as it was dumb when he did this prior to the Utah State game this season. Man up, if you are the better team, then you don't need trickeration to win. You know what else is dumb? Losing 38-7 to TCU at home, on homecoming, when College Game Day is in town...
In reality, I am sure it has nothing to do with New Mexico, as he claims. I think he just doesn't want TCU to know 2 weeks ahead of time who he is planning to start, because it will probably be the same next week at TCU. He wants to make sure the Horned Frogs have one week, and only one week, to prepare for what the Utes will bring on offense (besides complete ineptness, total chaos, and sheer lack of execution for 3 of the 4 quarters despite being the second most talented O in the conference behind TCU). Still, I think it's dumb, just as it was dumb when he did this prior to the Utah State game this season. Man up, if you are the better team, then you don't need trickeration to win. You know what else is dumb? Losing 38-7 to TCU at home, on homecoming, when College Game Day is in town...
Monday, November 2, 2009
Sun Belt check
I said:
Troy
Florida Atlantic
Middle Tennessee State
Arkansas State
Florida International
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette
North Texas
Western Kentucky
Current:
Troy
MTSU
La-Monroe
FAU
La-Lafayette
FIU
Arkansas State
North Texas
Western Kentucky
Updated Predictions
Troy
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee State
Arkansas State
Florida International
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana-Lafayette
North Texas
Western Kentucky
Essentially, I think I expected too much of Florida Atlantic and too little of Louisiana-Monroe, but I stand by the rest of my performance here...
Troy
Florida Atlantic
Middle Tennessee State
Arkansas State
Florida International
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisiana-Lafayette
North Texas
Western Kentucky
Current:
Troy
MTSU
La-Monroe
FAU
La-Lafayette
FIU
Arkansas State
North Texas
Western Kentucky
Updated Predictions
Troy
Louisiana-Monroe
Middle Tennessee State
Arkansas State
Florida International
Florida Atlantic
Louisiana-Lafayette
North Texas
Western Kentucky
Essentially, I think I expected too much of Florida Atlantic and too little of Louisiana-Monroe, but I stand by the rest of my performance here...
MWC Preseason Prediction
I said:
TCU
BYU
Air Force
Utah
New Mexico
Colorado State
UNLV
Wyoming
San Diego State
I thought TCU was the class of the league: they clearly are. I would be shocked if anybody finishes closer than 2 TDs to them down the stretch, including Utah. Of course the others are SDSU, Wyoming, and New Mexico
I figured BYU would lose to TCU but be able to win the rest of their conference games. I think they probably lose to Utah and finish third (or tied for 2nd if Utah slips up elsewhere which I don't think they will at this point).
I really thought Air Force could beat Utah (and they nearly did), but losing that game probably puts them at a 4th place finish. Another solid season for the Falcons though.
I believed that Utah would struggle offensively and it would cost them either against Air Force, CSU, or both. It nearly cost them in both, but the D managed to do enough to win, so it ultimately cost them in neither.
New Mexico was the team I thought I was most likely wrong about. I was. Dead wrong. Not only have they not won a single game, but they haven't even been competitive in 6 of the 8 games.
Colorado State figured to struggle a bit. I didn't anticipate an 0-5 start in conference, however. They still get UNLV, New Mexico, and Wyoming, where I think they go 2-1.
UNLV: I said they were overhyped. They currently sit at 7th where I had them. 2 of the last 3 are "winnable" games for them, but I think 1-2 is probably about right to finish out: 4-8 and searching for a new coach. Hey, Rebels, I'm available.
Wyoming has been a surprise. The D has been good and the O has cut down on the number of turnovers. However, critical situation turnovers have doomed them in several games this season. They sit at 6th now but still have BYU and TCU on the schedule, plus road games at an improved SDSU and the Border War at CSU. Let's see how they handle the acronym schools.
San Diego State has been the most pleasant surprise to this point, record-wise. However, they still have 2 of the Big Three left and a road game at UNLV after a demoralizing trip to Utah.
Updated predictions:
TCU
Utah
BYU
Air Force
Wyoming
San Diego State
Colorado State
UNLV
New Mexico
TCU
BYU
Air Force
Utah
New Mexico
Colorado State
UNLV
Wyoming
San Diego State
I thought TCU was the class of the league: they clearly are. I would be shocked if anybody finishes closer than 2 TDs to them down the stretch, including Utah. Of course the others are SDSU, Wyoming, and New Mexico
I figured BYU would lose to TCU but be able to win the rest of their conference games. I think they probably lose to Utah and finish third (or tied for 2nd if Utah slips up elsewhere which I don't think they will at this point).
I really thought Air Force could beat Utah (and they nearly did), but losing that game probably puts them at a 4th place finish. Another solid season for the Falcons though.
I believed that Utah would struggle offensively and it would cost them either against Air Force, CSU, or both. It nearly cost them in both, but the D managed to do enough to win, so it ultimately cost them in neither.
New Mexico was the team I thought I was most likely wrong about. I was. Dead wrong. Not only have they not won a single game, but they haven't even been competitive in 6 of the 8 games.
Colorado State figured to struggle a bit. I didn't anticipate an 0-5 start in conference, however. They still get UNLV, New Mexico, and Wyoming, where I think they go 2-1.
UNLV: I said they were overhyped. They currently sit at 7th where I had them. 2 of the last 3 are "winnable" games for them, but I think 1-2 is probably about right to finish out: 4-8 and searching for a new coach. Hey, Rebels, I'm available.
Wyoming has been a surprise. The D has been good and the O has cut down on the number of turnovers. However, critical situation turnovers have doomed them in several games this season. They sit at 6th now but still have BYU and TCU on the schedule, plus road games at an improved SDSU and the Border War at CSU. Let's see how they handle the acronym schools.
San Diego State has been the most pleasant surprise to this point, record-wise. However, they still have 2 of the Big Three left and a road game at UNLV after a demoralizing trip to Utah.
Updated predictions:
TCU
Utah
BYU
Air Force
Wyoming
San Diego State
Colorado State
UNLV
New Mexico
Review of Preseason Predictions
Big 12 North:
I said:
Nebraska
Colorado
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Current:
K-State
Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Colorado
If you flip K-State and Colorado, it isn't half-bad...I thought CU's schedule would help them out. However, they have lost at home too many times. They pick up the big win over KU and get blown out at home by Mizzou. I also thought they would beat K-State on the road. K-State has impressed but they still have 3 games with potential Big 12 North contenders: KU, Missouri, and Nebraska. I doubt they finish on top: in fact, if they go 0-3 in that stretch, they might just finish in the bottom 2 after all. Kansas is entering their brutal stretch, but they are doing it from 4th place: I figured they'd be in 2nd at this point...not a good outlook for them. Nebraska is hanging near the top, pretty much just waiting for K-State to slip up, which I believe they will. Iowa State's O has improved, which I expected. I think the D still prevents them from being a serious contender at this point. I think they still have two losses left on the schedule. Missouri has shown flashes of greatness, but done so against the subpar competition on the schedule. In games against ranked opponents they went 0-3 with an average margin of loss of 22 points compared with a margin of victory of 21 over the rest of their opponents. It is a rebuilding year. However, no more ranked opponents on the schedule. If they win out, they will either win the North or be tied for the lead with Nebraska.
My updated predictions:
Nebraska
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Kansas
Colorado
I said:
Nebraska
Colorado
Kansas
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Current:
K-State
Nebraska
Iowa State
Kansas
Missouri
Colorado
If you flip K-State and Colorado, it isn't half-bad...I thought CU's schedule would help them out. However, they have lost at home too many times. They pick up the big win over KU and get blown out at home by Mizzou. I also thought they would beat K-State on the road. K-State has impressed but they still have 3 games with potential Big 12 North contenders: KU, Missouri, and Nebraska. I doubt they finish on top: in fact, if they go 0-3 in that stretch, they might just finish in the bottom 2 after all. Kansas is entering their brutal stretch, but they are doing it from 4th place: I figured they'd be in 2nd at this point...not a good outlook for them. Nebraska is hanging near the top, pretty much just waiting for K-State to slip up, which I believe they will. Iowa State's O has improved, which I expected. I think the D still prevents them from being a serious contender at this point. I think they still have two losses left on the schedule. Missouri has shown flashes of greatness, but done so against the subpar competition on the schedule. In games against ranked opponents they went 0-3 with an average margin of loss of 22 points compared with a margin of victory of 21 over the rest of their opponents. It is a rebuilding year. However, no more ranked opponents on the schedule. If they win out, they will either win the North or be tied for the lead with Nebraska.
My updated predictions:
Nebraska
Missouri
Iowa State
Kansas State
Kansas
Colorado
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Wrong about BYU
I think BYU will make the BCS Standings this week, probably 25th, but in it is better than not. Given that they are 25th in both of the polls, Florida State and Oklahoma won (good for computer rankings), and the team at 26th in each of the polls is South Florida who has played two I-AA teams and ,therefore, won't have the greatest of computer numbers.
MWC Notes
This is a very young conference. The Utah and BYU defenses and the CSU offense are really the only senior-laden units in the entire conference (and only one of those is any good anyway: Utah's D). TCU has a scary amount of non-seniors in its starting lineup on both sides of the ball. This may be a "down" year for the conference (though TCU looks like a top 5 team, Utah like a top 15 team, and you could argue based on the lack of quality teams out there that BYU is a top 25 team: I think they will probably show up at 24 or 25 this week in the polls, though maybe not in the BCS Standings), but it looks VERY BRIGHT for the next two years for this conference. Wyoming, CSU, and Air Force are making strides and doing it with a lot of younger players. TCU is dominating with a lot of younger players. BYU's O is 13th in scoring starting 3 seniors (4 if you count the fullback in their spread offense). The conference is going to be much improved next season. They should be able to make some noise in the bowls this year and in the non-conference schedule next year and continue to improve on their resume for an automatic BCS bid a few years down the road.
Seeing the Light
After being stuck in "we need a running QB to have a successful offense" mode since the departure of Alex Smith, the University of Utah finally turned to a more traditional passing QB last night. The result: after scoring just 3 points in the first half with their running QB, they went to the backup and went for 19 in the second half. What Ute coaches haven't realized (or hadn't until last night) was that Alex Smith's ability to run wasn't what made him a successful college QB, it only enhanced it. He could throw AND he could run. Clearly, Cain can run but his lack of consistency throwing has stalled drives consistently. That is why they can't march down the field with him. Enter Jordan Wynn, who isn't much of a runner (though he isn't exactly a statue back there either), and they were able to sustain some long drives. And this was his first collegiate game! Imagine if he had been playing all season.
Utah has way too much talent on O, even with Asiata out, to only be averaging 27 points per game against the schedule they have played (they have only played 2 teams in the top 50 in scoring defense). Maybe they have finally found the key. Question is: will they be smart enough to stick with this Wynn-ing strategy? If they want to beat TCU, they better stick with Jordan: Cain is clearly not able...
NOTE: Brian Johnson was an amazing 4th quarter QB that led Utah to a 13-0 Sugar Bowl winning team last year. However, it was his fault they needed so many come-from-behind wins because of his play in quarters 1 through 3. I wonder how last year's team would have been with a passing QB: they might have done enough during the regular season to get in the national championship discussion. As it was, 5 wins by 7 points or less, didn't impress voters enough to come close to overtaking Florida in ANY poll, even with the 2 TD win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
Utah has way too much talent on O, even with Asiata out, to only be averaging 27 points per game against the schedule they have played (they have only played 2 teams in the top 50 in scoring defense). Maybe they have finally found the key. Question is: will they be smart enough to stick with this Wynn-ing strategy? If they want to beat TCU, they better stick with Jordan: Cain is clearly not able...
NOTE: Brian Johnson was an amazing 4th quarter QB that led Utah to a 13-0 Sugar Bowl winning team last year. However, it was his fault they needed so many come-from-behind wins because of his play in quarters 1 through 3. I wonder how last year's team would have been with a passing QB: they might have done enough during the regular season to get in the national championship discussion. As it was, 5 wins by 7 points or less, didn't impress voters enough to come close to overtaking Florida in ANY poll, even with the 2 TD win over Alabama in the Sugar Bowl.
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