Utah State-BYU 2010 Hoops Prediction

The Game
For a few years now, this has been one of the early season hoops games I look forward to the most.  It isn't the two sexiest teams in the country, but it is two very solid, fundamentally-sound, hard-working teams that always seem to play even with each other.  The home team usually takes the spoils, mostly because the teams are so even, that homecourt is the advantage that can sway the outcome.

Utah State's Team
This was an NCAA Tournament at-large team from a season ago that is bringing back a lot of significant contributors this season.  Tai Wesley is a bruiser down low at 6'7" and 240 pounds, and he has the experience necessary having logged significant minutes during his first three years in the program.  Pooh Williams is another very experienced player.  He is a very athletic wingman with a lot of speed: he is an instant fast break.  Tyler Newbold is another consistent guard who handles the ball extremely well.  He is entering his fourth year of significant playing time.  Brady Jardine has mostly been a bench player for Utah State, providing a spark as an athletic forward entering his third year in the program.  Newcomer Brockeither Pane is a slasher who knows how to get to the rim, and get to the free throw line.  It appears F Nate Bendall will be unable to go in the game, which is a very good thing for BYU.  Even without him, Utah State has good inside-outside balance, though the guard line this year is more of a penetrating group.

Utah State's Down-Sides
First and foremost, even with a lot of 3 and 4-year players/starters on their team, not a single one of Utah State's players has played at BYU before.  Three years ago, a contract dispute meant no game.  Two years ago it was played at the Energy Solutions Arena in Salt Lake.  Last year was in Logan.  I believe the last time Utah State won a game at BYU was 1984: nobody on Utah State's roster was even alive back then.  Even in BYU's 1-27 season in the 90's, the lone win was at home against Utah State.  Secondly, playing Utah State early in the season will be a huge plus, as they are still struggling to fill the leadership void without Jared Quayle.  Last season, he was capable of putting the team on his back and carrying them: he carried them right into the NCAA tournament.  He led the Aggies with 22 points against BYU last season.  Nate Bendall also had 14 points and 10 rebounds against BYU last season, and he is out with an injury.  They are missing a lot of production from the team that pulled away late to beat BYU by 10 at home last season.  Whether it was first game jitters or not, Utah State needed a furious run in 5 minutes into the second half to catch Weber State at home in the first game.  No knock against Weber State but...any team that got an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament, who brings back 3 (or 4 if you count Bendall) starters, should absolutely slaughter Weber State at home.

A Look at BYU
Jimmer played like Jimmer against Fresno State: 24 points and 8 assists.  Hartsock provided another offensive threat.  Abouo was very efficient on the offensive side.  Defensively, Emery did what Emery does: play lockdown defense on the best perimeter player for the opposing team.  Collinsworth controlled the boards.  They played great team defense, getting their hands on a lot of balls, and forcing Fresno into bad shots.  They will need more of that team defense Wednesday night against an offense very similar to BYU's defense: better than the sum of its parts.

Prediction
These in-state games tend to be lower-scoring than the teams average.  The teams and coaching staffs are familiar with each other.  They play physical with each other.  There is usually enough hype surrounding the game that all of the extra energy and excitement usually translates into a lower shooting percentage because of rushed shots, or guys trying to be heroes.  Neither team will be able to go as deep into their bench for as long as they did in their openers.  The BYU rotation will probably tighten a little bit and give fans a preview of what the rotation will look like in the MWC season.  I do expect home court to hold in this game, as long as Hartsock can slow Wesley down.  Davies will not be able to do anything offensively or defensively in the paint.  It will be up to Hartsock and Collinsworth to establish BYU in the paint on both sides of the floor.  I am not even sure Davies will get the start because of his softness.  Utah State will need to figure out some offense to win.  No one can out-defense BYU at the Marriott Center: you have to outscore them.  I am not sure they can do it in a hostile environment this early in the season.  BYU 71, Utah State 58.