#2 University of Utah: 10-2 (7-1)
A lot of this season rides on the performance of Brian Johnson. As a sophomore he put up gigantic numbers, but was only 5-5 as a starter. He sat out the next year to rehab. Then as a junior he played the whole season with a bum shoulder, putting up pretty average numbers, but compiled an 8-2 record as a starter (counting the Oregon State game even though he got hurt in the first half, but not counting the UNLV game where he played the entire second half and didn't even score-I think they balance out). He must be healthy if the Utes have any dreams of getting to double-digit wins this year. The game at Michigan will be a real test. Their defense returns 7 starters from a 2007 squad that contained Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow in their bowl game victory. Florida runs a not-surprisingly similar offense to Utah's, though with better athletes. After Michigan the offense will have plenty of time to get on a roll before facing another BCS opponent, Oregon State. Between those two they have UNLV, Utah State, Air Force, and Weber State. They should have a great rushing attack with the Mack attack back, Asiata (who hasn't proven anything in D 1-A yet) and the BIG O-Line. If Johnson is healthy, he'll factor in the running game as well. They have size at WR in Freddie Brown and Brandon Godfrey, though I think they are less skilled than the receiving corps of past years. Go ahead Freddie Brown, prove me wrong (did he set the school record for dropped passes in a game last year, or just tie it). Of the non-BCS teams, BYU and Tulsa might be the only ones that have better offenses than the Utes do. Biggest weakness on offense: Andy Ludwig, perhaps one of the worst playcallers at a respectable college in the country. Too bad for the Utes because they have everything they need on offense to score 40 points a game.
Defensively they have a few very talented starters to replace. However, due to injuries last year some of the "non-starters" saw starters' minutes and got a few starts in. They may be susceptible against the run as they lack some of the big, strong, experienced inside guys on the line and at middle linebacker. With that said, Coach Whittingham always has his defense ready to hit, unless there's a Tank coming at them. They should be great on the outside with Misi, Kruger (great idea to move him to end instead of 5th string QB) up front, and Sylvester at the roving linebacker spot. They have some great corners, and if they don't call holding on Bryce McCain at all again this season, then no one will ever catch a ball in his zone. Biggest weakness: straight-up-the-gut run defense.
Outlook: winning at Michigan to start the season would set the table for an undefeated run. They will give Rich Rodriguez and his boys all they can handle, but I think they'll fall short by about 10 in the end. They always have one head scratcher in conference (UNLV 27-0 last year). If they can overcome that, then the game against BYU could be two top 20 teams going against each other with a shot at the BCS on the line. The schedule is pretty light. Michigan and Oregon State are the headliners out of conference, but all predictions have those two as having somewhat down years. Utah State and Weber State (1-AA) are probably worse than practice or a scrimmage. The tougher league opponents are at home and they get TCU on a Thursday night (which is not their night-they are 1-5 over the past 3 seasons) at home.
Lou Holtz wasn't too far off his rocker when he said that Utah is the most talented non-BCS team, they are certainly in the top 5 for a title like that. The thing that sets them (and a few others-probably BYU, Boise State, Hawaii, and Fresno State-sorry MAC, C-USA, and Sun Belt!) apart from other non-BCS teams is the size of the offensive and defensive lines. They don't have a guy under 300 on the O-Line-even the backups are over 300-and they average about 280 on the defensive line, and they aren't just big, fat slow guys either. They are strong, quick, talented big fat guys.
Losses: Michigan, week 1 (the Big House will prove just big enough of a challenge); New Mexico, week 10 (for some reason they seem to underperform against UNM, even when they win)
Big wins: Oregon State, week 6, sweet redemption; BYU, sweeter redemption times two (this WILL be the BEST non-BCS game of the year).
What it all means: the win against BYU may actually cost the conference (and therefore the Utes) millions of dollars, as it very likely knocks BYU out of the BCS automatic berth range. It will help the Utes to a top 25 ranking and should put the Vegas Bowl in a bit of a predicament as they may have to choose between an 11-1 BYU team and a 10-2 Utah team that beat BYU.
Future: Offensively, this is the year for the Utes to get back to 2004 form as they've got size, talent, speed, AND experience. Defensively, the Utes are probably going to field an even better squad in 2009, as they only start 1 senior. Would 10-2, adding a bowl victory against a Pac-10 opponent, be enough for some BCS team to lure Whit away? Nope. Would 8-4, with this team's talent, be enough for Whit to get canned? Probably not, but he might want to fire Ludwig just to be safe. Well, he should do that regardless of where they finish the season.
Thursday, July 31, 2008
Saturday, July 26, 2008
#4 and #3
#4-New Mexico
Record: 8-4; 6-2
Offense: Rodney Ferguson is going to have to be the man as UNM lost a lot at WR. Lucky for Lobo fans, he is going to have a 1200 yard season. Porterie made progress as the season went on last year but he had some great targets to hit that won't be there this year. They have good size up front but they are very green. Unfortunately, facing TCU and Texas A&M the first two games won't help. The Arizona game will be their first opportunity to get the passing game going.
Defense: Rocky Long always has a good defense, but this year he might have a great one. The front 6 is quite experienced but a little undersized, which won't matter in most of their games but against the likes of TCU, A&M, BYU, and Utah it will show.
Outlook: They are one of the most consistent teams since the inception of the MWC. They are always good for 6 wins (at least since 2000). Last year they were good for 9 and their first bowl victory since the 1961 Aviation Bowl! The question is, can they build off that momentum (that's a ridiculous question, how can momentum last 8 months???)? I'm predicting a strong finish, but they'll come a little slow, mostly due to the competition level. The schedule isn't great starting with TCU in conference, followed by two BCS-conference teams. They also don't get a bye during the season, 12 weeks, 12 games!
Good wins: Arizona week 3, Utah week 10
Bad losses: Losing to TCU, Texas A&M, Tulsa, and BYU aren't bad really. We'll call Tulsa a bad loss, since everyone said it was a bad loss for BYU last year.
Potential season-changer: TCU, game one. Rocky Long has already given his excuses for losing that game so I think they will just go ahead and do so. A&M would be a huge one too. 0-2
#3-TCU
Record: 9-3; 6-2
Offense: This might be the first year in Gary Patterson's tenure that the offense starts out ahead of the defense. It won't last very long though. The QB situation last year was a bit dicey as they did some shuffling mid-season when the offense fluttered with their true freshman Andy Dalton. After sophomore Marcus Jackson didn't do much better, they went back to the frosh who had a great FRESHMAN campaign by all accounts. Dalton, however, needs to have a good season for this to be a special year, not just a good "sophomore" season. The run game should be better, provided Brown is healthier. That guy is just quick. Line play should be strong, big, physical, experienced, hungry, etc. They are a little weak at receiver, but it's TCU, they are going to have athletes on the field.
Defense: They have a few holes to fill on the D-Line. However, their defense is so unorthodox, fast, and hard-hitting that having some new faces on the line shouldn't hold them back. Their ends tend to be more speed rush/finesse-oriented and less run D/power-oriented but their LBs are strong against the run to make up for it. They've got some active bodies in the back 8 capable of creating turnovers, getting sacks, and making receivers wished they played Juco ball. By the end of the season, 3-5 of those guys will be all-conference performers: Phillips, Priest, Hodge, Henson, Coleman could all get named. They lack depth, which will probably do them in against Oklahoma, as it did against Texas last year: in it after 3 quarters, but blown out by the end.
Outlook: 4-0 start isn't bad, probably enough for a top-25 ranking, especially with wins against Stanford and "revamped" SMU. They'll space their losses out enough that they might get a second sniff, but they'll hang out in the top 35 most of the year.
Good wins: New Mexico, Stanford, SMU (that actually could be a fun game to watch)
Bad losses: Oklahoma, BYU, and Utah (none of these are bad as all 3 will spend some time in the top 20 this season and it's possible that 2 of them could be BCS-bound)
Potential season-changer: OU, week 5. They shocked the Sooners in 2005 in Norman. This would put them at 5-0 and shift some of the BCS-darling talk off of Utah and BYU (Fresno State will be out of the picture by week 2, if not week 1) and put it on the Horned Frogs. However, it's OU: they don't choke until their BCS game.
Record: 8-4; 6-2
Offense: Rodney Ferguson is going to have to be the man as UNM lost a lot at WR. Lucky for Lobo fans, he is going to have a 1200 yard season. Porterie made progress as the season went on last year but he had some great targets to hit that won't be there this year. They have good size up front but they are very green. Unfortunately, facing TCU and Texas A&M the first two games won't help. The Arizona game will be their first opportunity to get the passing game going.
Defense: Rocky Long always has a good defense, but this year he might have a great one. The front 6 is quite experienced but a little undersized, which won't matter in most of their games but against the likes of TCU, A&M, BYU, and Utah it will show.
Outlook: They are one of the most consistent teams since the inception of the MWC. They are always good for 6 wins (at least since 2000). Last year they were good for 9 and their first bowl victory since the 1961 Aviation Bowl! The question is, can they build off that momentum (that's a ridiculous question, how can momentum last 8 months???)? I'm predicting a strong finish, but they'll come a little slow, mostly due to the competition level. The schedule isn't great starting with TCU in conference, followed by two BCS-conference teams. They also don't get a bye during the season, 12 weeks, 12 games!
Good wins: Arizona week 3, Utah week 10
Bad losses: Losing to TCU, Texas A&M, Tulsa, and BYU aren't bad really. We'll call Tulsa a bad loss, since everyone said it was a bad loss for BYU last year.
Potential season-changer: TCU, game one. Rocky Long has already given his excuses for losing that game so I think they will just go ahead and do so. A&M would be a huge one too. 0-2
#3-TCU
Record: 9-3; 6-2
Offense: This might be the first year in Gary Patterson's tenure that the offense starts out ahead of the defense. It won't last very long though. The QB situation last year was a bit dicey as they did some shuffling mid-season when the offense fluttered with their true freshman Andy Dalton. After sophomore Marcus Jackson didn't do much better, they went back to the frosh who had a great FRESHMAN campaign by all accounts. Dalton, however, needs to have a good season for this to be a special year, not just a good "sophomore" season. The run game should be better, provided Brown is healthier. That guy is just quick. Line play should be strong, big, physical, experienced, hungry, etc. They are a little weak at receiver, but it's TCU, they are going to have athletes on the field.
Defense: They have a few holes to fill on the D-Line. However, their defense is so unorthodox, fast, and hard-hitting that having some new faces on the line shouldn't hold them back. Their ends tend to be more speed rush/finesse-oriented and less run D/power-oriented but their LBs are strong against the run to make up for it. They've got some active bodies in the back 8 capable of creating turnovers, getting sacks, and making receivers wished they played Juco ball. By the end of the season, 3-5 of those guys will be all-conference performers: Phillips, Priest, Hodge, Henson, Coleman could all get named. They lack depth, which will probably do them in against Oklahoma, as it did against Texas last year: in it after 3 quarters, but blown out by the end.
Outlook: 4-0 start isn't bad, probably enough for a top-25 ranking, especially with wins against Stanford and "revamped" SMU. They'll space their losses out enough that they might get a second sniff, but they'll hang out in the top 35 most of the year.
Good wins: New Mexico, Stanford, SMU (that actually could be a fun game to watch)
Bad losses: Oklahoma, BYU, and Utah (none of these are bad as all 3 will spend some time in the top 20 this season and it's possible that 2 of them could be BCS-bound)
Potential season-changer: OU, week 5. They shocked the Sooners in 2005 in Norman. This would put them at 5-0 and shift some of the BCS-darling talk off of Utah and BYU (Fresno State will be out of the picture by week 2, if not week 1) and put it on the Horned Frogs. However, it's OU: they don't choke until their BCS game.
Thursday, July 24, 2008
#5: Colorado State University
6-6, 4-4
I have a feeling that either SDSU, UNLV, or CSU are going to have a breakout year (sad for fans of those teams that 6-6 is a breakout year). I decided on CSU over SDSU and UNLV for two reasons: first, they have a veteran ball club. They are returning a decent amount of starters (14) and it's likely that 17 starters will be upper classmen (barring injuries during fall camp). These guys have been through the wars and will be ready to win a couple this time around. Second, new blood in the coaching staff. Last year, Troy Calhoun came in at the Academy and took a bunch of upperclassmen and got them to exceed expectations. I believe Coach Fairchild can do the same. He inherits two solid running backs in Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell as well as a senior QB. He doesn't have a ton of game experience but I'd take CSU's QB situation over UNLV or SDSU's!
CSU will have a solid running game. As an OC in the NFL, Fairchild always had good running games. They have decent size up front with 4 of 5 linemen pushing or over 300 pounds. That should help in the trenches. Bell should be running stronger this year, now that he is further removed from the ACL tear of 2006 and can help Johnson establish a POWER running game. Those two guys, when healthy, are a load to bring down. The QB situation should be helped a bit by the good hands they have at wideout and tight end. They don't necessarily have the size at receiver they might like, but they are big enough in this conference.
Defensively, I like the secondary. CSU had a great pass defense last year (29th in the country) and they should be even better this year. Pagnotta at strong safety spot can flat out hit and opposing receivers should plan on getting jacked up when cutting through the middle of the field. I think Kubiak will do a fantastic job at the other safety position. The run defense was horrid last year, no getting around that. Wyoming was the only team that didn't break 100 on them (99). They gave up over 200 yards 7 times, and over 300 3 times. They only played Air Force once, so that is inexcusable! If they can keep opponents down around 150, they should be close enough to win games.
Bad losses: Colorado, week 1, at Invesco Field (Mile-High), @California, week 5. Two potential statement games against BCS opponents: 0-2.
Good wins: Houston, week 4. Houston scored two TDs down the stretch to beat CSU last year. Wyoming, week 13. This makes them bowl eligible again. The Rams are headed in the right direction.
Potential season-changers: @Cal, won't happen but it's nice to dream. If they could pull off an upset against Utah or @TCU, that'd be huge. 5th place wouldn't be too bad for this Rams squad, especially given what the rest of the conference expects of them.
I have a feeling that either SDSU, UNLV, or CSU are going to have a breakout year (sad for fans of those teams that 6-6 is a breakout year). I decided on CSU over SDSU and UNLV for two reasons: first, they have a veteran ball club. They are returning a decent amount of starters (14) and it's likely that 17 starters will be upper classmen (barring injuries during fall camp). These guys have been through the wars and will be ready to win a couple this time around. Second, new blood in the coaching staff. Last year, Troy Calhoun came in at the Academy and took a bunch of upperclassmen and got them to exceed expectations. I believe Coach Fairchild can do the same. He inherits two solid running backs in Gartrell Johnson and Kyle Bell as well as a senior QB. He doesn't have a ton of game experience but I'd take CSU's QB situation over UNLV or SDSU's!
CSU will have a solid running game. As an OC in the NFL, Fairchild always had good running games. They have decent size up front with 4 of 5 linemen pushing or over 300 pounds. That should help in the trenches. Bell should be running stronger this year, now that he is further removed from the ACL tear of 2006 and can help Johnson establish a POWER running game. Those two guys, when healthy, are a load to bring down. The QB situation should be helped a bit by the good hands they have at wideout and tight end. They don't necessarily have the size at receiver they might like, but they are big enough in this conference.
Defensively, I like the secondary. CSU had a great pass defense last year (29th in the country) and they should be even better this year. Pagnotta at strong safety spot can flat out hit and opposing receivers should plan on getting jacked up when cutting through the middle of the field. I think Kubiak will do a fantastic job at the other safety position. The run defense was horrid last year, no getting around that. Wyoming was the only team that didn't break 100 on them (99). They gave up over 200 yards 7 times, and over 300 3 times. They only played Air Force once, so that is inexcusable! If they can keep opponents down around 150, they should be close enough to win games.
Bad losses: Colorado, week 1, at Invesco Field (Mile-High), @California, week 5. Two potential statement games against BCS opponents: 0-2.
Good wins: Houston, week 4. Houston scored two TDs down the stretch to beat CSU last year. Wyoming, week 13. This makes them bowl eligible again. The Rams are headed in the right direction.
Potential season-changers: @Cal, won't happen but it's nice to dream. If they could pull off an upset against Utah or @TCU, that'd be huge. 5th place wouldn't be too bad for this Rams squad, especially given what the rest of the conference expects of them.
Wednesday, July 23, 2008
#6 Wyoming
5-7 (2-6)
Same old story, different year. Yes they brought in a new offensive coordinator who was stellar at Montana and Florida A&M, but he's going up against a lot better coaches than he has been. He also doesn't inherit a great QB situation. After a solid freshman campaign, Sween had a ROUGH sophomore slump. He turned it over a lot, he threw a lot of ducks, and he got yanked several times. Coach Glenn isn't even ready to call him the starter yet. That is a bad sign at a position that is supposed to be the leader of the team, and when you have a guy returning who started there for two years! They do bring back their version of thunder and lightning with Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon, who combined for over 1500 yards last year. Seldon, at times, was very like thunder, loud and harmless. In the games against arguably the four best teams they played (Boise State, New Mexico, Utah, and BYU) they had sub-100 yard games as a team, hitting a low against BYU with NINE yards. With a question mark at QB and a running game that got most of its stats against poor defenses, I'd say the outlook isn't too great offensively. However, if Sween gets back to his freshman season form, they may go bowling after all. If nothing else, improved line play can keep Sween, Moore, and Seldon from having to run for their lives all season.
Defensively, they are very strong at linebacker, which should help them shore up their inconsistent run defense from last season. That aforementioned inconsistency is evidenced by the fact that they held a 9-4 ACC Virginia squad to -3 yards but gave up 278 to lowly can't-contend-in-the-WAC Utah State. The new corners won't get tested much until that fourth game of the season at BYU. BYU has thrown for over 300 yards against the Pokes each of the last two seasons, the only team to accomplish that even once. The defense has been the epitome of Cowpoke football the last two years: sprinting out of the gates (against inferior competition) and hobbling to the finish line (against decent competition). They'll have to hold some of the in-conference foes at bay for this season to finish any better than the last two did.
A weak non-conference schedule early in the season helps Wyoming start out of the gates strong again, before fading at conference time, again. Another problem: a late-season game at Tennessee. That could be ugly, not the best of scheduling moves as they will need a late-season push to get bowl eligible. They will fall short again this year. The final game will be 5-6 Wyoming against 5-6 CSU, with the winner going bowling.
Bad losses: CSU, final game, border war (name of the rivalry, in case you didn't know, as they are about 65 miles away from each other-made the drive myself last week), senior night, bowl eligibility on the line, and they choke...again. UNLV, week 12, would have made them bowl eligible by my count, making the CSU game all about bragging rights. Oh well.
Big wins: Bowling Green is about the best win they'll get all season. Air Force might be a better win, at least it's in conference?
Potential season-changing games: BYU, week 4. 3-0 heading to Provo where they got beat down 55-7 in 2006. The score might not be as lopsided, but the game will be.
Game I want to see: Utah. Is this the beginning of a new rivalry? It may not be much of a rivalry (Utah will beat them handily), but it should be some kind of a blood bath. After Utah's 3rd quarter onside kick attempt with a 6-touchdown lead and Wyoming's last second alley-oop with a double-digit lead in basketball, there may be something brewing besides beer in Laramie in mid-October!
Same old story, different year. Yes they brought in a new offensive coordinator who was stellar at Montana and Florida A&M, but he's going up against a lot better coaches than he has been. He also doesn't inherit a great QB situation. After a solid freshman campaign, Sween had a ROUGH sophomore slump. He turned it over a lot, he threw a lot of ducks, and he got yanked several times. Coach Glenn isn't even ready to call him the starter yet. That is a bad sign at a position that is supposed to be the leader of the team, and when you have a guy returning who started there for two years! They do bring back their version of thunder and lightning with Devin Moore and Wynel Seldon, who combined for over 1500 yards last year. Seldon, at times, was very like thunder, loud and harmless. In the games against arguably the four best teams they played (Boise State, New Mexico, Utah, and BYU) they had sub-100 yard games as a team, hitting a low against BYU with NINE yards. With a question mark at QB and a running game that got most of its stats against poor defenses, I'd say the outlook isn't too great offensively. However, if Sween gets back to his freshman season form, they may go bowling after all. If nothing else, improved line play can keep Sween, Moore, and Seldon from having to run for their lives all season.
Defensively, they are very strong at linebacker, which should help them shore up their inconsistent run defense from last season. That aforementioned inconsistency is evidenced by the fact that they held a 9-4 ACC Virginia squad to -3 yards but gave up 278 to lowly can't-contend-in-the-WAC Utah State. The new corners won't get tested much until that fourth game of the season at BYU. BYU has thrown for over 300 yards against the Pokes each of the last two seasons, the only team to accomplish that even once. The defense has been the epitome of Cowpoke football the last two years: sprinting out of the gates (against inferior competition) and hobbling to the finish line (against decent competition). They'll have to hold some of the in-conference foes at bay for this season to finish any better than the last two did.
A weak non-conference schedule early in the season helps Wyoming start out of the gates strong again, before fading at conference time, again. Another problem: a late-season game at Tennessee. That could be ugly, not the best of scheduling moves as they will need a late-season push to get bowl eligible. They will fall short again this year. The final game will be 5-6 Wyoming against 5-6 CSU, with the winner going bowling.
Bad losses: CSU, final game, border war (name of the rivalry, in case you didn't know, as they are about 65 miles away from each other-made the drive myself last week), senior night, bowl eligibility on the line, and they choke...again. UNLV, week 12, would have made them bowl eligible by my count, making the CSU game all about bragging rights. Oh well.
Big wins: Bowling Green is about the best win they'll get all season. Air Force might be a better win, at least it's in conference?
Potential season-changing games: BYU, week 4. 3-0 heading to Provo where they got beat down 55-7 in 2006. The score might not be as lopsided, but the game will be.
Game I want to see: Utah. Is this the beginning of a new rivalry? It may not be much of a rivalry (Utah will beat them handily), but it should be some kind of a blood bath. After Utah's 3rd quarter onside kick attempt with a 6-touchdown lead and Wyoming's last second alley-oop with a double-digit lead in basketball, there may be something brewing besides beer in Laramie in mid-October!
#7: Air Force
4-8, 2-6
It's not that I'm necessarily down on Air Force, it's more that I'm up on everyone else in the conference. Calhoun is a great coach (I believe), but this is a tough task for anyone. The Academy has to replace it's only ever 4-year starter at QB in Shaun Carney. It will have to replace Mr. Do-It-All Chad Hall. That's enough to replace on offense if that were it. Jim Ollis had a few clutch performances as well, including a 80-some-odd yard TD run on 4th down against TCU to tie the game. He had several 100-yard rushing games. With that said, the Academy has a system, and they have been able to plug in players and put together decent squads through the years. The years they win 8 and 9 games though, are the years they have a great QB. With the rest of the conference (SDSU excluded-maybe Wyoming too) improved, they will struggle to score points.
Defensively they will have a bit easier of a time, as they still return 5 players, granted their best one in Fowler is gone. The MWC, excluding BYU (and perhaps Utah this year), isn't a prolific offensive conference so they'll have time to grow into the defense. Once again they have a tiny D-line, but what they lack in size they make up for in toughness and stamina.
Good wins: @Army, week 10; UNLV and SDSU?
Bad losses: @Houston, week 3 (this is a bad matchup for the Academy); CSU, week 11 (week after an emotional game against Army, week prior to BYU, watch out); Navy, week 6 (it's always bad to lose to a fellow service academy)
Potential season-changing game: Wyoming, week 2. A win here could prove that Air Force is an underestimated squad. Wyoming always comes out strong out of the gates. Wyoming has some decent LBs in Dobbs and Juergens, so they should be able to foil the triple option attack.
It's not that I'm necessarily down on Air Force, it's more that I'm up on everyone else in the conference. Calhoun is a great coach (I believe), but this is a tough task for anyone. The Academy has to replace it's only ever 4-year starter at QB in Shaun Carney. It will have to replace Mr. Do-It-All Chad Hall. That's enough to replace on offense if that were it. Jim Ollis had a few clutch performances as well, including a 80-some-odd yard TD run on 4th down against TCU to tie the game. He had several 100-yard rushing games. With that said, the Academy has a system, and they have been able to plug in players and put together decent squads through the years. The years they win 8 and 9 games though, are the years they have a great QB. With the rest of the conference (SDSU excluded-maybe Wyoming too) improved, they will struggle to score points.
Defensively they will have a bit easier of a time, as they still return 5 players, granted their best one in Fowler is gone. The MWC, excluding BYU (and perhaps Utah this year), isn't a prolific offensive conference so they'll have time to grow into the defense. Once again they have a tiny D-line, but what they lack in size they make up for in toughness and stamina.
Good wins: @Army, week 10; UNLV and SDSU?
Bad losses: @Houston, week 3 (this is a bad matchup for the Academy); CSU, week 11 (week after an emotional game against Army, week prior to BYU, watch out); Navy, week 6 (it's always bad to lose to a fellow service academy)
Potential season-changing game: Wyoming, week 2. A win here could prove that Air Force is an underestimated squad. Wyoming always comes out strong out of the gates. Wyoming has some decent LBs in Dobbs and Juergens, so they should be able to foil the triple option attack.
Monday, July 21, 2008
MWC Media Days
Well, the coaches and media have spoken. Their predicted order of finish:
9. UNLV
8. CSU
7. SDSU
6. Air Force
5. Wyoming
4. New Mexico
3. TCU
2. Utah
1. BYU
I agree on number 9, Mike Sanford doesn't have it as a head coach, much like Gary Crowton: great offensive mind, bad team discipline.
My 9 through 5 looks like this:
9. UNLV
8. SDSU
7. Air Force
6. Wyoming
5. CSU
4 through 1 will come later. First, I'll tell you why I have AFA, Wyoming, and CSU where I do.
9. UNLV
8. CSU
7. SDSU
6. Air Force
5. Wyoming
4. New Mexico
3. TCU
2. Utah
1. BYU
I agree on number 9, Mike Sanford doesn't have it as a head coach, much like Gary Crowton: great offensive mind, bad team discipline.
My 9 through 5 looks like this:
9. UNLV
8. SDSU
7. Air Force
6. Wyoming
5. CSU
4 through 1 will come later. First, I'll tell you why I have AFA, Wyoming, and CSU where I do.
Sunday, July 20, 2008
Brother's wedding
Well, I spent the end of the week at my bro's wedding. I tried to keep up with sports, so I checked in with Sportscenter. After watching over 30 minutes of golf coverage (British Open and Michelle Wie) and a couple of MLS highlights, I realized I didn't miss much. I saw some highlights of more bad calls by baseball umpires, to compliment the way the week started with some HORRIBLE calls at the All-Star game. That's the reason the game went 15 innings: umpires! Oh, and bad players.
Later I will highlight more teams from the Mountain West: 7th-place Air Force and 6th-place Wyoming (I didn't want to keep you in suspense as to who is 6th and 7th-tomorrow I'll tell you why they will finish 6 and 7).
Later I will highlight more teams from the Mountain West: 7th-place Air Force and 6th-place Wyoming (I didn't want to keep you in suspense as to who is 6th and 7th-tomorrow I'll tell you why they will finish 6 and 7).
Wednesday, July 16, 2008
Where's my All-Star game?
If you didn't stay up until 2am Eastern (or if you're my brother in England-if you didn't go to work late) then you didn't find out what happened in the final All-Star game at Yankee Stadium. I was up that late, but came to a conclusion at the bottom of the 13th: all of the familiar faces of the game's greats were all being shown...on the bench? After watching Dan Uggla punt his third ground ball of extra innings (ever take infield practice, buddy?), after seeing Carlos Quinton bat for the third time (who is he, anyway?), after watching some Oriole pitcher named Sherrill (with an ERA over 4.00) mow through the NL "All-Stars" like it was little league, and after watching Dioner Navaro get thrown out at home by Nate McLouth, Carlos Quinton (who's that guy, AGAIN?) by Christian Guzman, and Michael Young by Dan Uggla (amazing he fielded it cleanly enough to get a throw home) I realized that the All-Star part of the game ended about the 7th inning when all of the starters were gone and all of the token we-have-to-take-someone-from-every-team players hit the field. OK, we'll give it until the 9th since Rivera came in to pitch. And really the "All-Star" part of it wasn't much a game either, just a couple of millionnaires swinging the bat a couple times for the New Yorkers who were rich enough to afford a ticket AND gas to get to the game. I turned the TV off after the 13th and lamented the fact that I had just wasted several hours of my life on Joakim Soria, Aaron Cook, J.D. Drew, Ian Kinsler, and Russell Martin.
If you went to bed without a knowledge of how this game ended, I salute your ignorance! If only I had been intelligent enough to take part in that same ignorance, it would have been bliss this morning with that 4:30am wake-up call.
If you went to bed without a knowledge of how this game ended, I salute your ignorance! If only I had been intelligent enough to take part in that same ignorance, it would have been bliss this morning with that 4:30am wake-up call.
Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Mountain West Preview: Part I
I am going to stand at the bottom of the standings and work my way up. The Mountain West Conference has no "tie-breaker" policy used to decide teams ending with the same in-conference record. However, when publishing their year-end standings, they always put the team with the better overall record first. If they had the same overall record too, they took the winner in the head-to-head matchup. I will do the same. Without further ado:
Number 9: UNLV 4-8 (1-7)
It's tough to imagine a team coming off 3 consecutive 2-win seasons could be disappointed with a 4-win season, but it might be so. They have a lot of young talent on the defense and the offense should be VASTLY improved, of course, it was so bad they'd have to be improved.
The loss of Beau Bell is huge as he was Mr. Everything for them at middle linebacker. The defense should come around as the season progresses. Look for their hot-shot MLB recruit Colin Shumate to see some time by season's end.
Frank "the Tank" should be able to run a bit, especially over some of the smaller D-lines in the conference. Since the arrival of Sanford's high-powered spread option offense, he has yet to find consistent play from a quarterback. If, and that's a big IF, Dixon or Clayton can emerge as a playmaker, they may actually score 25+ points a game and get a 5th win.
Good wins: Iowa State and Nevada!
Bad losses: SDSU, Utah (because it will be as big a blowout as you've seen in a while-the Utes have heard about that 27-0 beat-down a little too long to not do something about it)
Potential momentum-changer game: CSU could get them rolling the right way...
Number 8: SDSU 4-8 (1-7)
The loss of O'Connell looms large, especially with the loss of two of the big targets at wide-out. That's true any time you lose an NFL-caliber quarterback, especially a QB who led your team in rushing as well as passing. Attiyah Henderson showed some promise last year at RB early in the year, but his small frame wasn't ready to handle a big load. If that changes this year, he could make some highlight-reel type runs.
The defense should be stronger against the pass, as they return two shut-down corners, well at times they were shut-down corners. Run defense is going to be their big question mark. Chuck Long is known for his toughness, if he can teach his backers and especially his D-line to get nasty in the trenches, that could go a long way to sustained success.
The offense is going to be bad. There really isn't much more to say about it. The nice part is that they have 3 gimmes to get things figured out. But after that things get pretty tough with games against TCU, Air Force (bad rush defense comes in to play here!), and New Mexico.
[Side Note: Dan Uggla just made two errors in the 10th inning of the All-Star game, that's pathetic...don't vote for him next year, he just cost the Cubs home-field advantage]
I think they'll break out of the gates early (3-1), and falter as the season winds down (0-7 before winning against UNLV the last game of the year). That is what usually happens with young teams in college football, and there will be a lot of freshman and sophomores seeing time this year for the Aztecs.
Good wins: Lacking...UNLV?
Bad losses: none really, Air Force and Wyoming might be considered bad losses. I don't think they'll lose to anyone they shouldn't (their schedule has cupcakes and superior opponents).
Potential momentum-changers: @TCU. That would be a big win, and a big step in the right direction for this program, full of talent, never bringing it all together. However, TCU will be coming off a tough loss against Oklahoma and will want to take out their frustration on the next opponent.
Number 9: UNLV 4-8 (1-7)
It's tough to imagine a team coming off 3 consecutive 2-win seasons could be disappointed with a 4-win season, but it might be so. They have a lot of young talent on the defense and the offense should be VASTLY improved, of course, it was so bad they'd have to be improved.
The loss of Beau Bell is huge as he was Mr. Everything for them at middle linebacker. The defense should come around as the season progresses. Look for their hot-shot MLB recruit Colin Shumate to see some time by season's end.
Frank "the Tank" should be able to run a bit, especially over some of the smaller D-lines in the conference. Since the arrival of Sanford's high-powered spread option offense, he has yet to find consistent play from a quarterback. If, and that's a big IF, Dixon or Clayton can emerge as a playmaker, they may actually score 25+ points a game and get a 5th win.
Good wins: Iowa State and Nevada!
Bad losses: SDSU, Utah (because it will be as big a blowout as you've seen in a while-the Utes have heard about that 27-0 beat-down a little too long to not do something about it)
Potential momentum-changer game: CSU could get them rolling the right way...
Number 8: SDSU 4-8 (1-7)
The loss of O'Connell looms large, especially with the loss of two of the big targets at wide-out. That's true any time you lose an NFL-caliber quarterback, especially a QB who led your team in rushing as well as passing. Attiyah Henderson showed some promise last year at RB early in the year, but his small frame wasn't ready to handle a big load. If that changes this year, he could make some highlight-reel type runs.
The defense should be stronger against the pass, as they return two shut-down corners, well at times they were shut-down corners. Run defense is going to be their big question mark. Chuck Long is known for his toughness, if he can teach his backers and especially his D-line to get nasty in the trenches, that could go a long way to sustained success.
The offense is going to be bad. There really isn't much more to say about it. The nice part is that they have 3 gimmes to get things figured out. But after that things get pretty tough with games against TCU, Air Force (bad rush defense comes in to play here!), and New Mexico.
[Side Note: Dan Uggla just made two errors in the 10th inning of the All-Star game, that's pathetic...don't vote for him next year, he just cost the Cubs home-field advantage]
I think they'll break out of the gates early (3-1), and falter as the season winds down (0-7 before winning against UNLV the last game of the year). That is what usually happens with young teams in college football, and there will be a lot of freshman and sophomores seeing time this year for the Aztecs.
Good wins: Lacking...UNLV?
Bad losses: none really, Air Force and Wyoming might be considered bad losses. I don't think they'll lose to anyone they shouldn't (their schedule has cupcakes and superior opponents).
Potential momentum-changers: @TCU. That would be a big win, and a big step in the right direction for this program, full of talent, never bringing it all together. However, TCU will be coming off a tough loss against Oklahoma and will want to take out their frustration on the next opponent.
One Last Hurrah
In the house that Ruth built, where home run records have been established, broken and broken again, it was only fitting that the first and only home run derby to take place in Yankee Stadium should have a record-breaking first round by...a Texas Ranger?
The saddest part about the derby: no Yankees took part. Future all-time HR champion A-Rod was sitting on the sidelines. Juiced up, Thong-wearing Giambi was no where to be seen (not that I cared). Abreu, Jeter, Posada, etc. Not one of them. Some were asked, all declined. No, not a single Yankee (and not even a former Yankee) was out there swinging for the short porch, a past-time Yankee greats have enjoyed for 90 years. How would Mantle, Maris, Gehrig, DiMaggio, or Ruth feel about it? The game is played for the fans, for the fun, for the game itself, NOT for the day off.
To me, this is the baseball equivalent to NBA stars declining to play for Team USA. Shame on professional athletes/Yankees. Again. Congrats to Justin Morneau and Josh Hamilton. I'm sure it was a night they will never forget. I'm sure it was just as forgettable a night for the Yankees as every other night of their pathetic 2008 season. Bad kharma upon them all for the duration of their careers! Of course, I wished that upon them anyways...
The saddest part about the derby: no Yankees took part. Future all-time HR champion A-Rod was sitting on the sidelines. Juiced up, Thong-wearing Giambi was no where to be seen (not that I cared). Abreu, Jeter, Posada, etc. Not one of them. Some were asked, all declined. No, not a single Yankee (and not even a former Yankee) was out there swinging for the short porch, a past-time Yankee greats have enjoyed for 90 years. How would Mantle, Maris, Gehrig, DiMaggio, or Ruth feel about it? The game is played for the fans, for the fun, for the game itself, NOT for the day off.
To me, this is the baseball equivalent to NBA stars declining to play for Team USA. Shame on professional athletes/Yankees. Again. Congrats to Justin Morneau and Josh Hamilton. I'm sure it was a night they will never forget. I'm sure it was just as forgettable a night for the Yankees as every other night of their pathetic 2008 season. Bad kharma upon them all for the duration of their careers! Of course, I wished that upon them anyways...
Sunday, July 13, 2008
Coming Soon...
Over the course of the next week and a half I will be posting my "mid-major" top ten. I plan on updating this every week of the season. I will also be posting a preview of the Mountain West Conference. As I can tell by discussions with friends and comments on here about my Sun Belt analysis, not everybody was thrilled about the time dedicated to them. Let me know how you feel about my spending time on, in my opinion, the best (top-to-bottom) non-BCS conference. I will give as much detail as you guys indicate you want on the MWC teams. NOTE: I do believe the WAC has quality teams, but the bottom feeders there would struggle in any conference, even the "Suck" Belt. For example, Utah State was in the Sun Belt for two seasons from '03 to '04, compiling a 5-9 conference record. So the WAC brought in a team that couldn't get to .500 in the Sun Belt. I'd take UNLV or SDSU any day.
After posting the rankings and MWC preview, I plan on highlighting the 10 "statement" games for 2008 for mid-major teams, where teams from the smaller conferences play BCS foes in a chance to make a statement about their quality. I will also highlight the 10 "pecking order" games for 2008, where mid-majors clash in a chance to establish the order of superiority of these "inferior" conferences. Basically, I plan on highlighting the stuff ESPN forgot about/didn't care to tell you.
After posting the rankings and MWC preview, I plan on highlighting the 10 "statement" games for 2008 for mid-major teams, where teams from the smaller conferences play BCS foes in a chance to make a statement about their quality. I will also highlight the 10 "pecking order" games for 2008, where mid-majors clash in a chance to establish the order of superiority of these "inferior" conferences. Basically, I plan on highlighting the stuff ESPN forgot about/didn't care to tell you.
Friday, July 11, 2008
Give it up for...
When making college football predictions, one has to pick a starting point. I have decided to start with...the Sun Belt? With the smallest attendance, the least publicity, the fewest bowl tie-ins, and some of the worst teams in football, why not.
Here are some of the top post-season headlines you might read about the Sun Belt (if articles were ever to be written about the Sun Belt):
1. Florida International does what it could not last year: go defeated!
-The only potential obstacle is recent I-A addition Western Kentucky in the last game of the season. WKU, the scrawny new kid on the block, knows that the way to show you belong is to find someone weaker than you and pick on them. Good for you guys! Last year, FIU waited until the final game to win its first, will history repeat itself?
2. With a bowl victory, Schnelly's FAU Owls reach 10 wins.
-It's possible. Never underestimate the power of Howard Schnellenberger in a pink suit.
3. Biggest positive turnaround: North Texas
4. Biggest move in the wrong direction: loser of the Arkansas St/Middle Tenn St game.
Final Standings Projection:
1. FAU 9-3 (7-0)
2. Troy 8-4 (6-1)
3. L-Mon 6-6 (5-2)
4. North Texas 6-6 (4-3)
T-5. Ark St 3-9 (2-5)
T-5. L-Laf 3-9 (2-5)
T-5. MTSU 3-9 (2-5)
8. FIU 0-12 (0-7)
Brief team-by-team description:
FAU: returning 10 offensive starters from a good 2007 squad. After a 3-3 start last year, got things turned around going 5-2 down the stretch, including a bowl victory.
Key games: @Minnesota, week 4. A win here could get them to 10-but Minnesota won't lose to this Sun Belt team two years in a row will it?
vs. Troy, week 7. For the second straight year, the conference title comes down to this game. And for the second straight year, the Owls pull it out...maybe.
Troy: they do things the right way at Troy: balanced and productive offense, hard-nosed defense, and high-quality opponents. Last year they played well against 3 ranked SEC opponents on the road, averaging 30 points a game (of course they gave up nearly 50). They will only have two ranked roadies on the schedule this year: LSU and Ohio State!
Key games: @ LSU, week 2. I'm sure Troy will give LSU a run for their money early on, but come on, at LSU?
@Ohio State, week 4. The horsheshoe is a very unkind place for visitors. The men of Troy will give a noble effort, but fall like every other team that visits Columbus this fall.
@FAU, week 7. They couldn't close it out against FAU last year, and FAU should have an even better offense this year (as opposed to the one who dropped 38 on Troy last year!).
L-Mon: The rushing attack will be there again. They defense should be better. However, they won't get over the hump this year.
Key game: @Tulane, week 4. A win here could give them a winning record for the season, but if you'll notice, I had them at 6-6.
North Texas: they should be a bit more balanced this season with some talented underclassman running backs. They love to throw the ball, but they have some speed in the backfield that may help open things up. A 4-game turnaround isn't too much to expect from these guys.
Key games: vs. Tulsa, week 2. If you want to watch 700+ passing yards in a game, this is the one to watch. Unfortunately, North Texas' defense was the worst scoring defense in the country last year.
@Rice, week 5. It seems a little late to be getting your first win of the season, but they start @Kansas State, then Tulsa, @LSU, bye week, before finally getting a beatable opponent.
Arkansas St: good thing they have a I-AA opponent and they play in the Sun Belt, otherwise they might be in real trouble. Their rush defense was bad last year. Will it improve with age? They've got a lot to replace on the O-line as well.
Key game: vs. MTSU, week 4. Last year was pretty bad on the road in Tennessee. It should be a high scoring game, since neither team will be sporting much defense.
L-Laf: best rushing team statistically in the conference. Of course, they don't waste any plays trying to pass, so they better have good rushing numbers!
Key game: vs. Kent State, week 4. This game could rival Air Force vs. Navy for most rushing yards in a game this season. Still not worth watching.
MTSU: that's an abbreviation for Middle Tennessee State, in case you weren't sure. They did score 42 against Louisville last year. Of course, the next week they played a real defense (LSU) and didn't manage a single point!
Key game: @Arkansas State, week 4. If there were such thing as home field advantage in the Sun Belt, they might lose this game. Lucky for them there may only be 10,000 people at this game.
FIU: 9 of their offensive starters are returning this year! Of course, they were dead last in the NCAA in points scored, so maybe that's not such a good thing. At least on defense they only have to return 5 of their starters. They gave up 24 points more per game last year than they scored. Makes you wonder how they even won ONE game, but they did. They won't this year.
Key game: @Toledo, week 5. Toledo may be the only team they can run the ball on. Unfortunately, they'd need over 250 yards to keep the game close. My guess is: 160 on the ground, 7 on the scoreboard, 0-4 next to their record.
Western Kentucky: oh my bad, not actually in the Sun Belt! They are trying to make their case to join though with 5 games against Sun Belt opponents. It makes it easy for scheduling if they join, they'd only have to add 3 teams to the schedule! Last year they were 2-1 against Sun Belt opponents. This year I've got them at 1-4 against the Sun Belt this year, with the lone win against winless FIU.
Next up: MWC predictions and/or Top Ten Mid-Major Team Rankings (haven't decided yet)
Here are some of the top post-season headlines you might read about the Sun Belt (if articles were ever to be written about the Sun Belt):
1. Florida International does what it could not last year: go defeated!
-The only potential obstacle is recent I-A addition Western Kentucky in the last game of the season. WKU, the scrawny new kid on the block, knows that the way to show you belong is to find someone weaker than you and pick on them. Good for you guys! Last year, FIU waited until the final game to win its first, will history repeat itself?
2. With a bowl victory, Schnelly's FAU Owls reach 10 wins.
-It's possible. Never underestimate the power of Howard Schnellenberger in a pink suit.
3. Biggest positive turnaround: North Texas
4. Biggest move in the wrong direction: loser of the Arkansas St/Middle Tenn St game.
Final Standings Projection:
1. FAU 9-3 (7-0)
2. Troy 8-4 (6-1)
3. L-Mon 6-6 (5-2)
4. North Texas 6-6 (4-3)
T-5. Ark St 3-9 (2-5)
T-5. L-Laf 3-9 (2-5)
T-5. MTSU 3-9 (2-5)
8. FIU 0-12 (0-7)
Brief team-by-team description:
FAU: returning 10 offensive starters from a good 2007 squad. After a 3-3 start last year, got things turned around going 5-2 down the stretch, including a bowl victory.
Key games: @Minnesota, week 4. A win here could get them to 10-but Minnesota won't lose to this Sun Belt team two years in a row will it?
vs. Troy, week 7. For the second straight year, the conference title comes down to this game. And for the second straight year, the Owls pull it out...maybe.
Troy: they do things the right way at Troy: balanced and productive offense, hard-nosed defense, and high-quality opponents. Last year they played well against 3 ranked SEC opponents on the road, averaging 30 points a game (of course they gave up nearly 50). They will only have two ranked roadies on the schedule this year: LSU and Ohio State!
Key games: @ LSU, week 2. I'm sure Troy will give LSU a run for their money early on, but come on, at LSU?
@Ohio State, week 4. The horsheshoe is a very unkind place for visitors. The men of Troy will give a noble effort, but fall like every other team that visits Columbus this fall.
@FAU, week 7. They couldn't close it out against FAU last year, and FAU should have an even better offense this year (as opposed to the one who dropped 38 on Troy last year!).
L-Mon: The rushing attack will be there again. They defense should be better. However, they won't get over the hump this year.
Key game: @Tulane, week 4. A win here could give them a winning record for the season, but if you'll notice, I had them at 6-6.
North Texas: they should be a bit more balanced this season with some talented underclassman running backs. They love to throw the ball, but they have some speed in the backfield that may help open things up. A 4-game turnaround isn't too much to expect from these guys.
Key games: vs. Tulsa, week 2. If you want to watch 700+ passing yards in a game, this is the one to watch. Unfortunately, North Texas' defense was the worst scoring defense in the country last year.
@Rice, week 5. It seems a little late to be getting your first win of the season, but they start @Kansas State, then Tulsa, @LSU, bye week, before finally getting a beatable opponent.
Arkansas St: good thing they have a I-AA opponent and they play in the Sun Belt, otherwise they might be in real trouble. Their rush defense was bad last year. Will it improve with age? They've got a lot to replace on the O-line as well.
Key game: vs. MTSU, week 4. Last year was pretty bad on the road in Tennessee. It should be a high scoring game, since neither team will be sporting much defense.
L-Laf: best rushing team statistically in the conference. Of course, they don't waste any plays trying to pass, so they better have good rushing numbers!
Key game: vs. Kent State, week 4. This game could rival Air Force vs. Navy for most rushing yards in a game this season. Still not worth watching.
MTSU: that's an abbreviation for Middle Tennessee State, in case you weren't sure. They did score 42 against Louisville last year. Of course, the next week they played a real defense (LSU) and didn't manage a single point!
Key game: @Arkansas State, week 4. If there were such thing as home field advantage in the Sun Belt, they might lose this game. Lucky for them there may only be 10,000 people at this game.
FIU: 9 of their offensive starters are returning this year! Of course, they were dead last in the NCAA in points scored, so maybe that's not such a good thing. At least on defense they only have to return 5 of their starters. They gave up 24 points more per game last year than they scored. Makes you wonder how they even won ONE game, but they did. They won't this year.
Key game: @Toledo, week 5. Toledo may be the only team they can run the ball on. Unfortunately, they'd need over 250 yards to keep the game close. My guess is: 160 on the ground, 7 on the scoreboard, 0-4 next to their record.
Western Kentucky: oh my bad, not actually in the Sun Belt! They are trying to make their case to join though with 5 games against Sun Belt opponents. It makes it easy for scheduling if they join, they'd only have to add 3 teams to the schedule! Last year they were 2-1 against Sun Belt opponents. This year I've got them at 1-4 against the Sun Belt this year, with the lone win against winless FIU.
Next up: MWC predictions and/or Top Ten Mid-Major Team Rankings (haven't decided yet)
Thursday, July 10, 2008
As a side note
Why is it that the Reverends Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton can say whatever they want about whomever they want and simply apologize for it and everything is fine, but if ANYBODY ELSE says ANYTHING remotely racist or bigoted, those two make sure those people get fired, protested against, or what-have-you, regardless of how many [actually sincere] apologies they make? When did Jackson and Sharpton become the moral compasses of America?
A side note to a side note: I once heard Al Sharpton blame the white CEOs of recording companies for the "degrading rap music" that some "black victims" purchase from their favorite black rappers. The CEOs should stop the music from hitting the shelves, he claims. Black rappers shouldn't have to do so. What happened to accountability?
A side note to a side note: I once heard Al Sharpton blame the white CEOs of recording companies for the "degrading rap music" that some "black victims" purchase from their favorite black rappers. The CEOs should stop the music from hitting the shelves, he claims. Black rappers shouldn't have to do so. What happened to accountability?
Tuesday, July 8, 2008
The Harden Deal
Get an ace (when healthy), lose a couple of under-performing prospects before the A's realize they aren't any good! Great deal. In 3 or 4 years, if Harden is hurt and Murton becomes an all-star it may not look like such a good trade. But it's all about TODAY. If not this year for the Cubs, when? They have offense: power, on-base guys, speed. They have defense: gold glovers, veterans, and arms in the outfield. They have pitching: starting, set-up, and closing ability. Before the trade, they had the best team in the majors. After the trade, well, it certainly didn't get any worse. Lilly is coming around, but his stuff isn't really playoff stuff. With Dempster just making the move to starter this year, he may tire out by season's end. Now they have a certain no. 2 starter for the playoffs.
On the 100th anniversary of their last world championship, if this trade, with this team, can't win them a World Series Title, it will never happen!
But, "it's gonna happen!"
On the flip side, what were the A's thinking? They are in the AL wild card race! Or rather, they were in the wild card race. Oh well, as Cubs fans always say: next year's our year. Ironic, don't you think?
On the 100th anniversary of their last world championship, if this trade, with this team, can't win them a World Series Title, it will never happen!
But, "it's gonna happen!"
On the flip side, what were the A's thinking? They are in the AL wild card race! Or rather, they were in the wild card race. Oh well, as Cubs fans always say: next year's our year. Ironic, don't you think?
The new bowls
Sorry to all of you avid followers (thanks, dad) for not publishing my piece last night on the current state of men's tennis. It was my birthday and I decided to spend some time with the wife and newborn. I will get to that one later in the week.
I was looking at the addition of two new bowls this week: the St. Petersburg Bowl in St. Pete's, FL, featuring a team from the Big East and Conference USA; and the Congressional Bowl in the nation's capital, featuring Navy (if eligible) and the 9th-place ACC team. Yes, the 9th place ACC team. All you have to do is not finish in the bottom 1/4 of the conference and you can go to a bowl game. I'm going to ignore the fact that in the 3-year history of the 12-team ACC, they've never had 9 bowl eligible teams. Let's just take a look at what it would take to go bowling in the ACC.
Schedule your yearly maximum 1 I-AA team. Let's throw in two Sun Belt teams, how about Florida International and Louisiana-Lafayette for good measure, they did win 4 WHOLE games combined last year. How about a MAC bottom-feeder to polish off the schedule? Kent State sound good? They won 3 games all by themselves last year. Now all we have to do is beat Duke and North Carolina and we will get REWARDED with a bowl game, accompanied with its couple-hundred thousand dollar payout. [But hey, whether we manage to beat Duke or not, we'll still get to split that big BCS paycheck given to all ACC schools.] Being NC State never looked so good!
I think this is great for Navy, to have an automatic bowl tie-in for a game in Washington DC. I'm sure someone like last year's 8-4 Troy team (who handily beat a bowl-bound 6-6 OK State) might be a little more deserving of a bowl slot than a barely-avoided-bottom-0f-the-rung ACC squad. The small bowl payout would also go a lot further for a university like that (since they get nothing if they don't send a team bowling) than the already-getting-millions-for-simply-having-the-right-conference-affiliation ACC team. A 9th-place ACC team! Now that's a joke.
I was looking at the addition of two new bowls this week: the St. Petersburg Bowl in St. Pete's, FL, featuring a team from the Big East and Conference USA; and the Congressional Bowl in the nation's capital, featuring Navy (if eligible) and the 9th-place ACC team. Yes, the 9th place ACC team. All you have to do is not finish in the bottom 1/4 of the conference and you can go to a bowl game. I'm going to ignore the fact that in the 3-year history of the 12-team ACC, they've never had 9 bowl eligible teams. Let's just take a look at what it would take to go bowling in the ACC.
Schedule your yearly maximum 1 I-AA team. Let's throw in two Sun Belt teams, how about Florida International and Louisiana-Lafayette for good measure, they did win 4 WHOLE games combined last year. How about a MAC bottom-feeder to polish off the schedule? Kent State sound good? They won 3 games all by themselves last year. Now all we have to do is beat Duke and North Carolina and we will get REWARDED with a bowl game, accompanied with its couple-hundred thousand dollar payout. [But hey, whether we manage to beat Duke or not, we'll still get to split that big BCS paycheck given to all ACC schools.] Being NC State never looked so good!
I think this is great for Navy, to have an automatic bowl tie-in for a game in Washington DC. I'm sure someone like last year's 8-4 Troy team (who handily beat a bowl-bound 6-6 OK State) might be a little more deserving of a bowl slot than a barely-avoided-bottom-0f-the-rung ACC squad. The small bowl payout would also go a lot further for a university like that (since they get nothing if they don't send a team bowling) than the already-getting-millions-for-simply-having-the-right-conference-affiliation ACC team. A 9th-place ACC team! Now that's a joke.
Monday, July 7, 2008
That was fast!
We'll find out fairly quickly about my comments on C.C. Sabathia. He did end up in Milwaukee, and it only cost them 4 minor league prospects, so it doesn't disrupt the composition of the team at all. It certainly deepens their rotation and gives them a second legitimate strikeout pitcher. Facing Sheets followed by Sabathia will be a tough test for any lineup. However, the NL Central, with the exception of the Cubs (and Brewers) is full of teams with good contact hitters. The Cards lead the league in Ks (best at NOT striking out). The 'Stros are 4th, the Pirates 6th, and the Reds 10th.
His ERA is currently even with his career average (3.83). There are three reasons to assume that his ERA will continue to drop throughout the rest of the reason. First, the past two seasons he has shown his potential and won the Cy Young award last year. His ERA has been under 3.30 both seasons. Second, his career to this point has been spent entirely in the American League with the DH. He comes to the NL now where every ninth batter is usually a sub-.200 hitter. Third, the Indians showed him that he is expendable. With his future hanging in the balance, he needs to continue pitching lights out to get a max contract on the free agent market when his expires at the end of the season. This isn't really a reason in my mind, but the "experts" seem to think that guys somehow try harder, and, therefore, pitch better in a contract year. He was overpitching early and his ERA skyrocketed, so if he reverts back to that philosophy, it'll actually work against him, in my opinion.
One reason to think his ERA will go up: he's pitching in the one division that scores runs like the American League. With 14 of the Brewers final 23 series against the NL Central, he's going to see some of the more potent lineups in the National League.
This was a decent move by the Brewers to try to win it all this year. However, they've got a few problems. First, they've got to nail down the bullpen. Gagne can't close it out. Torres has been great in his role so far as closer, but his career has been plagued with inconsistency, especially down the stretch. Then again, that career was spent with the Pirates...Second, the young guys have to continue to produce on offense. Last year they totally faded down the stretch, not quite as bad as the Mets, but they still faded badly. Are they a year older, a year wiser? No. I just don't see it happening for the Brew Crew. Their time will come.
His ERA is currently even with his career average (3.83). There are three reasons to assume that his ERA will continue to drop throughout the rest of the reason. First, the past two seasons he has shown his potential and won the Cy Young award last year. His ERA has been under 3.30 both seasons. Second, his career to this point has been spent entirely in the American League with the DH. He comes to the NL now where every ninth batter is usually a sub-.200 hitter. Third, the Indians showed him that he is expendable. With his future hanging in the balance, he needs to continue pitching lights out to get a max contract on the free agent market when his expires at the end of the season. This isn't really a reason in my mind, but the "experts" seem to think that guys somehow try harder, and, therefore, pitch better in a contract year. He was overpitching early and his ERA skyrocketed, so if he reverts back to that philosophy, it'll actually work against him, in my opinion.
One reason to think his ERA will go up: he's pitching in the one division that scores runs like the American League. With 14 of the Brewers final 23 series against the NL Central, he's going to see some of the more potent lineups in the National League.
This was a decent move by the Brewers to try to win it all this year. However, they've got a few problems. First, they've got to nail down the bullpen. Gagne can't close it out. Torres has been great in his role so far as closer, but his career has been plagued with inconsistency, especially down the stretch. Then again, that career was spent with the Pirates...Second, the young guys have to continue to produce on offense. Last year they totally faded down the stretch, not quite as bad as the Mets, but they still faded badly. Are they a year older, a year wiser? No. I just don't see it happening for the Brew Crew. Their time will come.
Sunday, July 6, 2008
A few predictions
My wife loves sports, like very few women that I know. She knows sports generally but not specifically, making for fairly shallow discussion. She does recognize that I have a lot of useless knowledge and very worthless opinions on the topic. She encouraged me to put them out there, to open up discussion. So, I am going to start by making a few predictions about the rest of the baseball season (since nothing else is happening right now).
First: something will happen this season that has not happened since 1994: neither the Yankees nor Braves will make the playoffs.
The Yankees will make a late season push (they always do), but this season they will fall a little bit short. The division is too much improved this season, so those late season series against the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays are not gimmes, as in years past. The wild card is going to be a tough swing for them with the resurgence of the Tigers, the talent of the Twins, and the consistency of the A's. In September they have 26 games: only 6 of them are against teams with losing records (as of 7/6/07), half of them are against teams currently leading their division, and the final 3 are at Fenway.
The Braves shouldn't be that big of a surprise to not make the playoffs as they continue to rebuild. They were too good for too long. Baseball, like golf, always has a way of humbling those involved with it. Still, with these two teams having been as dominant as they have been, to have neither in the postseason is a bit strange, and exciting for the rest of us!
Second: C.C. Sabathia will not be pitching in the World Series this year. That is assuming that he doesn't get traded to the Twins (which I don't see happening!). If he goes to the Brewers, he is not going to a real contender. If they got matched up with the Phillies in the first round, they might win that series but it doesn't put them over the top by any means. Besides, who knows what they might have to give up to get him. They are one year away still, in my opinion.
Third: this year is here. The Cubs will make it to the Fall Classic for the first time since 1945. If the season ended today they would have a rematch against Arizona in the first round. The D-Backs have shown this season that they are the exact same team as last year: above-average pitching, coupled with very average hitting. The Cubs, however, are VASTLY improved at some positions, while still solid at all the others. The bullpen (despite a few too many blown saves by Kerry Wood) is as good as I remember it ever being. The starting pitching has been good too, despite several poor starts by number two, Ted Lilly. They could probably use another ace in the rotation, but I'm not sure it's necessary given the make-up of the team, barring major injury to Big Z.
I won't make any bold AL predictions, but I'd put my money on the Angels. Offensively, they play good station-to-station ball, with power potential from Vlad, Hunter, and Napoli (if only he could hit for average too!). I expect the offense to play better in the second half. The pitching staff is about as good as anybody in the league, when healthy. Lackey has been outstanding since he came off the DL (1.93 ERA).
Later this week: NCAA Football
First: something will happen this season that has not happened since 1994: neither the Yankees nor Braves will make the playoffs.
The Yankees will make a late season push (they always do), but this season they will fall a little bit short. The division is too much improved this season, so those late season series against the Rays, Orioles, and Blue Jays are not gimmes, as in years past. The wild card is going to be a tough swing for them with the resurgence of the Tigers, the talent of the Twins, and the consistency of the A's. In September they have 26 games: only 6 of them are against teams with losing records (as of 7/6/07), half of them are against teams currently leading their division, and the final 3 are at Fenway.
The Braves shouldn't be that big of a surprise to not make the playoffs as they continue to rebuild. They were too good for too long. Baseball, like golf, always has a way of humbling those involved with it. Still, with these two teams having been as dominant as they have been, to have neither in the postseason is a bit strange, and exciting for the rest of us!
Second: C.C. Sabathia will not be pitching in the World Series this year. That is assuming that he doesn't get traded to the Twins (which I don't see happening!). If he goes to the Brewers, he is not going to a real contender. If they got matched up with the Phillies in the first round, they might win that series but it doesn't put them over the top by any means. Besides, who knows what they might have to give up to get him. They are one year away still, in my opinion.
Third: this year is here. The Cubs will make it to the Fall Classic for the first time since 1945. If the season ended today they would have a rematch against Arizona in the first round. The D-Backs have shown this season that they are the exact same team as last year: above-average pitching, coupled with very average hitting. The Cubs, however, are VASTLY improved at some positions, while still solid at all the others. The bullpen (despite a few too many blown saves by Kerry Wood) is as good as I remember it ever being. The starting pitching has been good too, despite several poor starts by number two, Ted Lilly. They could probably use another ace in the rotation, but I'm not sure it's necessary given the make-up of the team, barring major injury to Big Z.
I won't make any bold AL predictions, but I'd put my money on the Angels. Offensively, they play good station-to-station ball, with power potential from Vlad, Hunter, and Napoli (if only he could hit for average too!). I expect the offense to play better in the second half. The pitching staff is about as good as anybody in the league, when healthy. Lackey has been outstanding since he came off the DL (1.93 ERA).
Later this week: NCAA Football
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)