In a game that BYU absolutely had to win in order to stay in the hunt for an at-large berth, they pulled through, winning 70-68 at Virginia Tech. It was ugly at times. There were a lot of 6/8-0 runs for BYU and just as many given up by BYU. BYU's younger players continued to show an inability to play calm under pressure at times, when the Hokies made a run, or the crowd got involved, BYU played "frantic" for sure. But you have to admire the toughness they displayed in gutting out the win.
To me, the most important thing BYU can take from this win is confidence by a lot of different players. Harrison came in and gave the Cougars an early lift, hitting a three and eating up some minutes. Nate Austin hit some big jumpers and nabbed 3 offensive boards. Winder had three steals throughout the course of the game that all led to breakaways (unfortunately, BYU only netted 3 points on those 3 fastbreak opportunities). Davies and Hartsock combined to go 18-20 on Free Throws. When Hartsock was ineffective early, Davies went to work. When Davies got in foul trouble, Hartsock picked it up, including a big block on a layup at the end of the game. Zylstra did nothing offensively all night (surprise that Brock didn't play well against a decent opponent...), but then the game-winning three. Carlino was 1-8 from three and just kept shooting. Abouo continues to look lost in transition, in the half-court set, under the basket.
Between Zylstra, Carlino, and Abouo, the starting backcourt went 7-33 from the field and 3-20 from three. The Cougars also got outrebounded. They did that on the road, in the ACC (granted a middle of the pack ACC team that really has no chance to make the NCAA Tournament). And they won.
They won the game by sharing and valuing the basketball (14 assists on 22 baskets and committing 7 turnovers), mixing up the defenses in the first half (playing a little 3-2 matchup zone in addition to the usual 2-3 zone), forcing Virginia Tech turnovers (7 steals by BYU, 15 turnovers by Va Tech), and making free throws (21-24). This was a team win. A lot of guys made significant contributions, even if it was only one or two plays.
Clearly there is opportunity to improve. But this was a win that BYU can build off of. They allowed the frenetic pace and frenzied environment to get to them. But they battled back and continued to fight. They played poorly on the road and won. They have not done that a whole lot this season, perhaps at Utah and, one could argue, Loyola Marymount. Big win. BYU remains firmly on the bubble with the win. A loss would have essentially ended hope of an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Now, there is new life and opportunity, and two big games ahead. As the great sage of comedy says: get 'er done.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
Saturday, January 21, 2012
The Mo Jinx
Well, I will take full credit for BYU's crappy performance. The Mo Jinx is definitely still alive. I say BYU looks like a tournament team, they go 2 for 25 from three. I say BYU could beat just about anyone in the country at home, and they lose badly to a team that won't even make the NIT. I say they don't have any really bad losses yet, and they go out and get one.
A co-worker (looking for a betting tip) asked me about BYU's 17-point spread against LMU. I told him I'd shun it like the plague. BYU SHOULD beat an average-at-best Lions team at home, that they beat on the road by 8, easily. However, this is still a young team, and they might assume that, because of the relative ease of the road game, despite playing poorly, coming back home to play the same squad would be a walk in the park. LMU turned up the intensity and BYU didn't respond.
There was a lot of effort, but it was a bit of a panicked effort. This was not a cool, calm collected from a team that can stay composed during the frenetic pace of an NCAA Tournament game. Now it's time for the real BYU to show up. They've got to dispatch Pepperdine easily and get ready for the brutal 3-game stretch that will define their season. The sins committed on Thursday night can be repented of with a nice 8-game winning streak.
And they were some big sins. This went from a bubble team looking assuredly to be on the right side to a bubble team certain to be on the wrong side unless it proves otherwise in the next 10 days. The big stretch starts today on the road, against a poor Pepperdine team that has lost 6 games in a row, all by double digits. Win by 20, and get some momentum. Win by 8 or 4 or lose, and lose the fanbase. While the Loyola loss doesn't quite equate to the football team's loss to Utah, it may have the same impact: fans getting tired of beating the scrubs, struggling against decent opponents, and losing the big ones. The fans stopped showing up to football. They already struggle to come out in FULL FORCE to basketball games. Win big today. Beat Va Tech on the road on Wednesday. There are no moral victories any more, I'm not sure there were any BEFORE the loss to Loyola Marymount, but after it, no chance. The fans won't take it any more. BYU 88, Pepperdine 60.
A co-worker (looking for a betting tip) asked me about BYU's 17-point spread against LMU. I told him I'd shun it like the plague. BYU SHOULD beat an average-at-best Lions team at home, that they beat on the road by 8, easily. However, this is still a young team, and they might assume that, because of the relative ease of the road game, despite playing poorly, coming back home to play the same squad would be a walk in the park. LMU turned up the intensity and BYU didn't respond.
There was a lot of effort, but it was a bit of a panicked effort. This was not a cool, calm collected from a team that can stay composed during the frenetic pace of an NCAA Tournament game. Now it's time for the real BYU to show up. They've got to dispatch Pepperdine easily and get ready for the brutal 3-game stretch that will define their season. The sins committed on Thursday night can be repented of with a nice 8-game winning streak.
And they were some big sins. This went from a bubble team looking assuredly to be on the right side to a bubble team certain to be on the wrong side unless it proves otherwise in the next 10 days. The big stretch starts today on the road, against a poor Pepperdine team that has lost 6 games in a row, all by double digits. Win by 20, and get some momentum. Win by 8 or 4 or lose, and lose the fanbase. While the Loyola loss doesn't quite equate to the football team's loss to Utah, it may have the same impact: fans getting tired of beating the scrubs, struggling against decent opponents, and losing the big ones. The fans stopped showing up to football. They already struggle to come out in FULL FORCE to basketball games. Win big today. Beat Va Tech on the road on Wednesday. There are no moral victories any more, I'm not sure there were any BEFORE the loss to Loyola Marymount, but after it, no chance. The fans won't take it any more. BYU 88, Pepperdine 60.
Wednesday, January 18, 2012
BYU Looking Decent
As I continue to scout out BYU's potential NCAA Tournament opponents (i.e. as I watch way more college basketball than I have time to watch), I become more and more convinced that, in a way, my expectations for BYU are both too high and too low. This is actually a pretty darn good college team, but it's a college team, that makes a lot of mistakes and has a lot of flaws. It's a team that, quality-wise, belongs in the NCAA Tournament, although the lack of quality wins would put them firmly on the bubble (b/c they are just now hitting their stride and haven't had any meaningful games in that time period). This BYU team is certainly as capable as any team that'll end up with an 8 or 9 seed. This team could beat almost anyone in the nation at home, and compete with most teams at neutral sites similar to what they will likely see in the NCAA Tournament. The Wisconsin game is a bit of an aberration, as it wasn't a real NCAA Tournament environment, and it was in the pre-Carlino, still trying to find a point guard, Davies still preparing to get serious about basketball, era.
Carlino doesn't do a lot of the things Jimmer does, which is both good and bad. For all of the Jimmerific things The Jimmer did, he dribbled himself into a lot of turnovers and bad plays. Carlino hasn't been doing that. He's been playing within himself and the offense, for the most part. He was a little Jimmery early on, trying to assert himself as the next great white hype. But he has settled in nicely. His first three games he averaged 4 turnovers a game, but in the last seven games, he has only committed four turnovers once. His assist/turnover ratio has been nearly 2:1 in that span. He has really bought into the team aspect of a Coach Rose team. He's even doing some dirty work on the glass, record 6 or more rebounds in 3 of his 10 games, which is great for a PG.
Noah has been extremely efficient. He's been playing only two more minutes per game than last year, but his scoring has doubled, going from a shade under 50% to a shade over 57%. His rebounding and blocks have held constant, so he hasn't lost sight of doing the "little" things as he added 8 points/game to his repertoire. And his ability to spread the floor with his 15-foot sideline jumper has led to a lot of back door cuts for the guards to get layups and for Davies to throw down. He's just been phenomenal, scoring 20 points-plus in 6 games so far this season.
Davies had a few sporadic quality efforts the early part of the season. He woke up in the Baylor game though. It's like he had forgotten what it meant to play in a big-time environment. He had amazing performances in the biggest conference games of last season. But he just didn't have that killer instinct until Baylor. Since then though, he has scored in double figures in all but one game. He has had 5 double doubles in 10 games. The only thing that has slowed Davies is foul trouble, though that has been a consistent issue. On offense, he's constantly seeing immediate double teams in conference play, but he's shot over 50% from the field and really only had one game where he turned the ball over too much. He's manned up the last month. BYU will need him in their crucial stretch next week.
The rest of the group has been wildly inconsistent. Zylstra has had three 20-point-plus games (3rd on the team), yet he is 5th on the team in scoring. Abouo has been as likely to score 4 points as he is to score 16. He can shoot 23% or 50%. He can get himself to the free throw line 10 times or none. He can grab 16 boards or just one solitary rebound. I would venture to say that he has probably been the biggest disappointment for the Cougars this season (though expectations for Harrison were high for some). And yet, he's been an integral part in several of the wins. Rogers has been hurt, but he can shoot lights out and, after the injury, he was still a solid defender even when his timing was off on the offensive side. Austin has been a revelation at times and, at others, I just hope he doesn't stay on the court too long b/c he has Jackson Emery-like Chipmunk moments (that's for you, Shane!). Winder can be extremely effective in spurts, but he can't seem to log large minutes consistently and produce. Josh Sharp just needs to put on 20 or 30 pounds. If he were somehow much bulkier, BYU's chances of success in the NCAA Tournament would increase drastically. Right now, if BYU sees two quality big men and Davies, Hartsock, and/or Austin get in foul trouble, there just isn't another body to put on the court.
Cusick is an interesting case. He has been an amazing shooter of late. He certainly values the ball, averaging less than 1 turnover per game. Yet, before Carlino became eligible, the coaching staff didn't really trust him to carry the load at the point guard position. What he can certainly do is come in for 5 minutes at a time, two or three times per game, to give the starters a rest with no noticeable dropoff. He's a feisty defender for sure on the front end of that zone.
I like the make-up of this team. If everybody is on, there isn't a team in the country that could stop BYU. The problem is: Zylstra is never on in big games, Abouo is such a wild card, and foul trouble can hamper the bigs, especially Davies and Austin. [BYU also has that panic when they get in those big games. Always have, always will] Those three things are that would prevent this team from making a return to the Sweet 16. A lot of BYU fans would complain about the 3-point defense and the inability to stop other teams' best scorer. Guess what? That happens across all of college basketball. The other teams' players are on scholarship too. Sometimes they get on hot streaks. BYU isn't immune to that kind of thing. For the season, opponents are still shooting under 33% of their threes. And, in spite of an increase in the number of possessions/game, BYU is actually giving up fewer points than last year's team (I would argue that the easier schedule and the absolute dominance BYU has had on the boards have contributed to the decrease in points allowed).
I expect good things from this team though, albeit not amazing things. They should be able to make the NCAA Tournament and play a competitive first game. If things go right, it may even extend beyond that. With the honor code, Rogers' and Collinsworth's injuries, and the loss of 4 significant players from last year's team (and James Anderson would make five if he is counted), this isn't as much of a rebuild job this season as people thought. There's potential, and they're improving. If they can make their way into the tourney (still up in the air at this point, after going through the potential field and bubble teams, I've got them about 64th team of 68 as of today, with a lot on the line at Va Tech and at home against St. Mary's and Gonzaga), they have a chance to make a little noise.
Mo's fearless prediction is that BYU's crucial 3-game stretch next week, combined with the road game at Gonzaga, will play a major role in where BYU lands in the postseason. If they go 1-3, they are in the NIT with a home game for at least one round, and, frankly, there isn't much to complain about. If they go 3-1, they would be looking at a likely single-digit seed. If they go 2-2, then they are probably right where they are today: on the fringe and it's really a coin flip. What BYU does have going for it, at least currently, is that they don't have any really bad losses this season. But they also lack any big wins. Most bubble teams have both. BYU continues to be unique...BYU 84, Loyola Marymount 69.
Carlino doesn't do a lot of the things Jimmer does, which is both good and bad. For all of the Jimmerific things The Jimmer did, he dribbled himself into a lot of turnovers and bad plays. Carlino hasn't been doing that. He's been playing within himself and the offense, for the most part. He was a little Jimmery early on, trying to assert himself as the next great white hype. But he has settled in nicely. His first three games he averaged 4 turnovers a game, but in the last seven games, he has only committed four turnovers once. His assist/turnover ratio has been nearly 2:1 in that span. He has really bought into the team aspect of a Coach Rose team. He's even doing some dirty work on the glass, record 6 or more rebounds in 3 of his 10 games, which is great for a PG.
Noah has been extremely efficient. He's been playing only two more minutes per game than last year, but his scoring has doubled, going from a shade under 50% to a shade over 57%. His rebounding and blocks have held constant, so he hasn't lost sight of doing the "little" things as he added 8 points/game to his repertoire. And his ability to spread the floor with his 15-foot sideline jumper has led to a lot of back door cuts for the guards to get layups and for Davies to throw down. He's just been phenomenal, scoring 20 points-plus in 6 games so far this season.
Davies had a few sporadic quality efforts the early part of the season. He woke up in the Baylor game though. It's like he had forgotten what it meant to play in a big-time environment. He had amazing performances in the biggest conference games of last season. But he just didn't have that killer instinct until Baylor. Since then though, he has scored in double figures in all but one game. He has had 5 double doubles in 10 games. The only thing that has slowed Davies is foul trouble, though that has been a consistent issue. On offense, he's constantly seeing immediate double teams in conference play, but he's shot over 50% from the field and really only had one game where he turned the ball over too much. He's manned up the last month. BYU will need him in their crucial stretch next week.
The rest of the group has been wildly inconsistent. Zylstra has had three 20-point-plus games (3rd on the team), yet he is 5th on the team in scoring. Abouo has been as likely to score 4 points as he is to score 16. He can shoot 23% or 50%. He can get himself to the free throw line 10 times or none. He can grab 16 boards or just one solitary rebound. I would venture to say that he has probably been the biggest disappointment for the Cougars this season (though expectations for Harrison were high for some). And yet, he's been an integral part in several of the wins. Rogers has been hurt, but he can shoot lights out and, after the injury, he was still a solid defender even when his timing was off on the offensive side. Austin has been a revelation at times and, at others, I just hope he doesn't stay on the court too long b/c he has Jackson Emery-like Chipmunk moments (that's for you, Shane!). Winder can be extremely effective in spurts, but he can't seem to log large minutes consistently and produce. Josh Sharp just needs to put on 20 or 30 pounds. If he were somehow much bulkier, BYU's chances of success in the NCAA Tournament would increase drastically. Right now, if BYU sees two quality big men and Davies, Hartsock, and/or Austin get in foul trouble, there just isn't another body to put on the court.
Cusick is an interesting case. He has been an amazing shooter of late. He certainly values the ball, averaging less than 1 turnover per game. Yet, before Carlino became eligible, the coaching staff didn't really trust him to carry the load at the point guard position. What he can certainly do is come in for 5 minutes at a time, two or three times per game, to give the starters a rest with no noticeable dropoff. He's a feisty defender for sure on the front end of that zone.
I like the make-up of this team. If everybody is on, there isn't a team in the country that could stop BYU. The problem is: Zylstra is never on in big games, Abouo is such a wild card, and foul trouble can hamper the bigs, especially Davies and Austin. [BYU also has that panic when they get in those big games. Always have, always will] Those three things are that would prevent this team from making a return to the Sweet 16. A lot of BYU fans would complain about the 3-point defense and the inability to stop other teams' best scorer. Guess what? That happens across all of college basketball. The other teams' players are on scholarship too. Sometimes they get on hot streaks. BYU isn't immune to that kind of thing. For the season, opponents are still shooting under 33% of their threes. And, in spite of an increase in the number of possessions/game, BYU is actually giving up fewer points than last year's team (I would argue that the easier schedule and the absolute dominance BYU has had on the boards have contributed to the decrease in points allowed).
I expect good things from this team though, albeit not amazing things. They should be able to make the NCAA Tournament and play a competitive first game. If things go right, it may even extend beyond that. With the honor code, Rogers' and Collinsworth's injuries, and the loss of 4 significant players from last year's team (and James Anderson would make five if he is counted), this isn't as much of a rebuild job this season as people thought. There's potential, and they're improving. If they can make their way into the tourney (still up in the air at this point, after going through the potential field and bubble teams, I've got them about 64th team of 68 as of today, with a lot on the line at Va Tech and at home against St. Mary's and Gonzaga), they have a chance to make a little noise.
Mo's fearless prediction is that BYU's crucial 3-game stretch next week, combined with the road game at Gonzaga, will play a major role in where BYU lands in the postseason. If they go 1-3, they are in the NIT with a home game for at least one round, and, frankly, there isn't much to complain about. If they go 3-1, they would be looking at a likely single-digit seed. If they go 2-2, then they are probably right where they are today: on the fringe and it's really a coin flip. What BYU does have going for it, at least currently, is that they don't have any really bad losses this season. But they also lack any big wins. Most bubble teams have both. BYU continues to be unique...BYU 84, Loyola Marymount 69.
Monday, January 16, 2012
Big Test for BYU Monday Night
BYU plays at San Diego tonight, a team they blew out by 36 at home. The real test for BYU tonight, however, is when Baylor travels to Kansas for a showdown of elite basketball teams. BYU had Baylor on the ropes multiple times throughout their contest. BYU today is clearly a better team than it was then, so if Baylor can head to KU and pull one out at Allen Fieldhouse, that would say a lot about BYU, I think. If Kansas handles business at home easily, then perhaps BYU isn't as good as we hope.
Now, for BYU's game, the real test will be: can they put the 36-point blowout behind them. Will they take San Diego seriously enough? After another subpar defensive game on Saturday, I'm not sure they can afford to take anyone lightly at this point. If the shots aren't falling, which is possible on the road, BYU can't give up easy looks at the basket to anyone. So, the test for BYU, can they mentally be in this game from the opening tip? Bury San Diego early and get Rogers, Sharp, and Harrison some additional playing time in case the Cougars need them down the stretch (they will need Rogers, and I hate to lump him in with Sharp and Harrison but you can tell he isn't quite right yet). Rogers D has been good since he's been back, but he looks out of sorts a bit on the offensive end still.
For San Diego, Dennis Kramer was an unexpected surprise on the offensive end in the first matchup. Ken Rancifer came out of nowhere with his 8 boards as well. San Diego got no-shows from their two best players, leading scorer Johnny Dee (0-7) and leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Chris Manresa (4 points, 2 rebounds). I would expect them to have much better games this time around. One or two of those "role" players figures to have a good game on their home court and this might be a contest through 30 minutes. BYU needs to hit shots and play defense. They need to win this one handily.
This is one of the worst teams in the WCC. There figures to be a lot of BYU fans on hand for the game. If BYU doesn't get it done, this would be a shocker. Davies, Hartsock, and Austin combined for 45 points in the first matchup. I anticipate a lot of quick double teams and "monster" defense from San Diego. That means the Cougars have to hit outside shots, and Abouo and Carlino need to finish around the rim. There will also be opportunities for second chance points with the double teams and shifting and getting out of position that the Torrerros have to employ to have a chance. BYU 77, San Diego 66.
Now, for BYU's game, the real test will be: can they put the 36-point blowout behind them. Will they take San Diego seriously enough? After another subpar defensive game on Saturday, I'm not sure they can afford to take anyone lightly at this point. If the shots aren't falling, which is possible on the road, BYU can't give up easy looks at the basket to anyone. So, the test for BYU, can they mentally be in this game from the opening tip? Bury San Diego early and get Rogers, Sharp, and Harrison some additional playing time in case the Cougars need them down the stretch (they will need Rogers, and I hate to lump him in with Sharp and Harrison but you can tell he isn't quite right yet). Rogers D has been good since he's been back, but he looks out of sorts a bit on the offensive end still.
For San Diego, Dennis Kramer was an unexpected surprise on the offensive end in the first matchup. Ken Rancifer came out of nowhere with his 8 boards as well. San Diego got no-shows from their two best players, leading scorer Johnny Dee (0-7) and leading rebounder and second-leading scorer Chris Manresa (4 points, 2 rebounds). I would expect them to have much better games this time around. One or two of those "role" players figures to have a good game on their home court and this might be a contest through 30 minutes. BYU needs to hit shots and play defense. They need to win this one handily.
This is one of the worst teams in the WCC. There figures to be a lot of BYU fans on hand for the game. If BYU doesn't get it done, this would be a shocker. Davies, Hartsock, and Austin combined for 45 points in the first matchup. I anticipate a lot of quick double teams and "monster" defense from San Diego. That means the Cougars have to hit outside shots, and Abouo and Carlino need to finish around the rim. There will also be opportunities for second chance points with the double teams and shifting and getting out of position that the Torrerros have to employ to have a chance. BYU 77, San Diego 66.
Tuesday, January 10, 2012
Hate To Go Political, But Tis the Season
Shame on Fox News. They gave anything but a fair and balanced report tonight on the New Hampshire Primary, which is what they claim to do. I had to dig and do my own research to discover the facts about what actually happened in the New Hampshire primary. They could only find one "analyst" to declare it a good night for Romney, and that was Howard Dean's old campaign advisor, but had no shortage of analysts who said he "underwhelmed" with a 16% victory. Karl Rove stopped short of calling it a good night for Romney, but called Romney the presumptive nominee, which isn't exactly a big stretch, calling the frontrunner and poll-leader a presumptive nominee. Everybody else said it was an OK night, but he didn't wow like he needed to. Only 32% of late-deciding voters went his way. Oh no! After get lambasted by every candidate from every side on every issue every day the last 4 days, 1/3 of people still managed to go his direction. What did they expect?
I'm no political expert, but I'd say a night where the guys who are supposed to be your biggest "conservative" rivals are battling for 4th and 5th at less than 10% of the vote, is a good night. In an election where you are struggling to fenagle together a large enough coalition of voters to withstand a two-person race, a night that enourages more people to stay in the race to split the rest of the vote is a good night.
Now, Huntsman will stay in the race, energized by a third place finish, but Romney won't lose many voters to Huntsman. Santorum doesn't get to carry the mantle as the best alternative to Romney after finishing fifth in New Hampshire, and he didn't even win the Evangelical vote there (Romney did, actually, according to exit polls)! His competition is making it harder for someone to dethrone him. And Ron Paul continues to be a wild card, likely unable to win the nomination, but more than capable of preventing any other conservative from knocking him off. If Perry or Gingrich finishes second in South Carolina, that's quite possibly a perfect script for Romney. Three states, three wins, and, most importantly, three different second place finishers. Probably three different third-place finishers too. I'm sorry, whether you support Romney or not, that's a good night.
Fox News also claimed poor voter turnout. The voter turnout was 4% higher than in 2008, or roughly 10,000 more voters in the primary. Romney's percentages increased drastically in each of the state's 10 counties. He won 9 of 10 counties (his only loss a rural northern county with about 4,000-5,000 voters). Adding 2nd and 3rd place together gets enough votes to beat him by less than 2,000 votes. Adding 3rd through last place together and he beats that coalition of candidates. He routed the field. He didn't win by enough? Are you kidding me? Tell it like it is. Romney won. Big. They need to get Bill O'Reilly to do election coverage and stop spinning things towards the candidates the individual analysts support: leave that for CNN and MSNBC.
Fox News also called it a good night for Huntsman. CNN went the opposite: big night for Romney, bad night for Huntsman. No wonder there is such a sharp division among the citizens of the United States: there is such a sharp division among our news sources. They are both half-right. Romney holding his huge lead is good for him. Huntsman exceeding expectations is good for him. I can't wait to see what the expert panel will say if Romney wins by only 8% in South Carolina...
Instead, Fox touts it as a low-enthusiasm, small-turnout primary. More people voted. More people voted for Romney. He won by 15-17%. That is a bigger number than any other non-incumbent in a long time. Report the facts. I do give credit to Brett Baer who questioned the analysts further after they gave a 'meh' to Romney's night, presenting facts and asking "are you sure that isn't good for Romney. To which they replied again: meh. Good journalism. Bad analysis. [Here's a hint: if you want a fair and balanced analysis don't have two of three people on your expert panel from the Weekly Standard. Good grief, it's not good to get "out-fair and balanced" by CNN. Tell it like it is.]
I'm no political expert, but I'd say a night where the guys who are supposed to be your biggest "conservative" rivals are battling for 4th and 5th at less than 10% of the vote, is a good night. In an election where you are struggling to fenagle together a large enough coalition of voters to withstand a two-person race, a night that enourages more people to stay in the race to split the rest of the vote is a good night.
Now, Huntsman will stay in the race, energized by a third place finish, but Romney won't lose many voters to Huntsman. Santorum doesn't get to carry the mantle as the best alternative to Romney after finishing fifth in New Hampshire, and he didn't even win the Evangelical vote there (Romney did, actually, according to exit polls)! His competition is making it harder for someone to dethrone him. And Ron Paul continues to be a wild card, likely unable to win the nomination, but more than capable of preventing any other conservative from knocking him off. If Perry or Gingrich finishes second in South Carolina, that's quite possibly a perfect script for Romney. Three states, three wins, and, most importantly, three different second place finishers. Probably three different third-place finishers too. I'm sorry, whether you support Romney or not, that's a good night.
Fox News also claimed poor voter turnout. The voter turnout was 4% higher than in 2008, or roughly 10,000 more voters in the primary. Romney's percentages increased drastically in each of the state's 10 counties. He won 9 of 10 counties (his only loss a rural northern county with about 4,000-5,000 voters). Adding 2nd and 3rd place together gets enough votes to beat him by less than 2,000 votes. Adding 3rd through last place together and he beats that coalition of candidates. He routed the field. He didn't win by enough? Are you kidding me? Tell it like it is. Romney won. Big. They need to get Bill O'Reilly to do election coverage and stop spinning things towards the candidates the individual analysts support: leave that for CNN and MSNBC.
Fox News also called it a good night for Huntsman. CNN went the opposite: big night for Romney, bad night for Huntsman. No wonder there is such a sharp division among the citizens of the United States: there is such a sharp division among our news sources. They are both half-right. Romney holding his huge lead is good for him. Huntsman exceeding expectations is good for him. I can't wait to see what the expert panel will say if Romney wins by only 8% in South Carolina...
Instead, Fox touts it as a low-enthusiasm, small-turnout primary. More people voted. More people voted for Romney. He won by 15-17%. That is a bigger number than any other non-incumbent in a long time. Report the facts. I do give credit to Brett Baer who questioned the analysts further after they gave a 'meh' to Romney's night, presenting facts and asking "are you sure that isn't good for Romney. To which they replied again: meh. Good journalism. Bad analysis. [Here's a hint: if you want a fair and balanced analysis don't have two of three people on your expert panel from the Weekly Standard. Good grief, it's not good to get "out-fair and balanced" by CNN. Tell it like it is.]
Thursday, January 5, 2012
BYU-LMU Recap, USF-BYU Prediction
Ball movement and team-rebounding won BYU this game over the Loyola-Marymount Lions, 73-65. With the game tied up at HT, BYU took advantage of some nice, easy baskets and did a solid job rebounding as a team when the Lions went ice cold, particularly from downtown.
BYU had 18 assists on 27 made baskets. It isn't BYU's best ratio of the season, but anytime a team assists on 2 out of every 3 baskets, they are doing something right. BYU missed a lot of open looks, particularly early in each half, which would have sent that total a lot higher. Hartsock helped a lot of people out in that regard, draining 9 of 12 shots, by my (totally unofficial) count 7 of them were assisted on. Cusick also came up big with three threes in the second half that were all assists from the Cougar big men going inside-out. Cusick started a BYU run that LMU couldn't overcome.
6 of the 9 BYU Cougars that played had at least 4 rebounds, with Davies leading the way with 10, and all 9 Cougars grabbed at least one board. Abouo and Austin led the charge on the offensive side of the ball, combining for 6 of BYU's 12 offensive boards. The most crucial part was BYU's ability to keep LMU off the glass during an 0-16 stretch for three, with only 3 of those missed bombs during that stretch resulting in LMU boards (again, another very unofficial Mo stat).
The big stories defensively were the Lion three-point shooting percentage being low (a positive for BYU) and easy buckets for LMU at stretches in the second half (a negative). Other than Ireland, who shot 4-6 (30% shooter who I called to make 4 prior to the game!), the Lions were 1-20 from three. LMU's ability to penetrate and confuse the defense was a bit of a concern. BYU was attempting to put the game away and LMU got a few cheap, easy buckets off of dribble penetration. I liked Rogers energy and length, and I felt BYU did a good job getting out on three-point shooters with his help. BYU was helped by LMU's desire to attack the Abouo/Cusick/Carlino side of the zone instead of the Hartsock/Zylstra/Winder side, where I think most teams have found their success.
For the brief time that Stephen Rogers was in the game, BYU played mostly zone, and he's just so long. He affected a couple of shots and made a couple other Lions briefly hesitate. I think, going forward, we'll probably see Rogers and Austin matched up with Hartsock in the zone. It just looks awkward with Davies and Austin playing zone together, I'm not sure Rose will continue with that personnel grouping. It became obvious pretty quickly that BYU wasn't going to be able to play man-to-man and Coach Rose made a wise decision to employ mostly zone. There was a lot more energy and closeout from the outside post players and LMU went cold as a result.
Offensively, BYU can't expect much better than what they did offensively on the road, except for the complete disaster that was their transition/fast break offense. But if they can score in the 70's, they should be happy. That should be enough to win them road games against everyone else on the conference schedule but Gonzaga. Remember, this is only the Cougars fourth road game, and only the first with THIS GROUP of Cougars as Carlino missed the first two and Rogers missed St. Mary's. This team will improve, and did improve tonight. If not for some careless turnovers in a late flurry of activity and full-court pressure by LMU (which BYU must learn from if they hope to win any Tourney, WCC and NCAA, games), this would have been a 15-point win. Good win. Next up, San Francisco on Saturday at the Marriott Center, 4pm. I'll be taking my son with his grandpa, so it should be fun.
I won't have time for a full-blown prediction on that game, however. I can tell you what I know: San Francisco had a disappointing start to conference play, with a double-digit loss at doormat Pepperdine and an OT loss to Loyola Marymount. They rebounded on Tuesday night with a win against 2-9 Morgan State of the MEAC. I think they are a bit overmatched, but I haven't had a chance to watch them yet this season, so I don't know much about their personnel.
A brief look at their stats for the year tells me BYU should not have much problem dispatching them. BYU struggles against teams that share the ball well. It doesn't look like the Dons have done a lot of that. They are also struggling from the 3-point line. If BYU can close out on the 3-point shooters like they did against LMU, they'll outscore San Francisco fairly easily. Michael Williams is their worst three-point shooter at 26%, with 6 attempts/game. So the Dons should probably expect a 5-7 effort out of him on Saturday. I'll go BYU 82, USF 68, Rogers goes for 15 off the bench, Davies gets another double-double, and someone besides Hartsock will go for 20+ (leads the team in 20-point games), I would lean Carlino right now but maybe Zylstra can break out of his 2-week funk. BYU needs SOMETHING out of him in conference play, 12 points in 3 games isn't gonna cut it for a starter on a team averaging 81 points in those three games.
BYU had 18 assists on 27 made baskets. It isn't BYU's best ratio of the season, but anytime a team assists on 2 out of every 3 baskets, they are doing something right. BYU missed a lot of open looks, particularly early in each half, which would have sent that total a lot higher. Hartsock helped a lot of people out in that regard, draining 9 of 12 shots, by my (totally unofficial) count 7 of them were assisted on. Cusick also came up big with three threes in the second half that were all assists from the Cougar big men going inside-out. Cusick started a BYU run that LMU couldn't overcome.
6 of the 9 BYU Cougars that played had at least 4 rebounds, with Davies leading the way with 10, and all 9 Cougars grabbed at least one board. Abouo and Austin led the charge on the offensive side of the ball, combining for 6 of BYU's 12 offensive boards. The most crucial part was BYU's ability to keep LMU off the glass during an 0-16 stretch for three, with only 3 of those missed bombs during that stretch resulting in LMU boards (again, another very unofficial Mo stat).
The big stories defensively were the Lion three-point shooting percentage being low (a positive for BYU) and easy buckets for LMU at stretches in the second half (a negative). Other than Ireland, who shot 4-6 (30% shooter who I called to make 4 prior to the game!), the Lions were 1-20 from three. LMU's ability to penetrate and confuse the defense was a bit of a concern. BYU was attempting to put the game away and LMU got a few cheap, easy buckets off of dribble penetration. I liked Rogers energy and length, and I felt BYU did a good job getting out on three-point shooters with his help. BYU was helped by LMU's desire to attack the Abouo/Cusick/Carlino side of the zone instead of the Hartsock/Zylstra/Winder side, where I think most teams have found their success.
For the brief time that Stephen Rogers was in the game, BYU played mostly zone, and he's just so long. He affected a couple of shots and made a couple other Lions briefly hesitate. I think, going forward, we'll probably see Rogers and Austin matched up with Hartsock in the zone. It just looks awkward with Davies and Austin playing zone together, I'm not sure Rose will continue with that personnel grouping. It became obvious pretty quickly that BYU wasn't going to be able to play man-to-man and Coach Rose made a wise decision to employ mostly zone. There was a lot more energy and closeout from the outside post players and LMU went cold as a result.
Offensively, BYU can't expect much better than what they did offensively on the road, except for the complete disaster that was their transition/fast break offense. But if they can score in the 70's, they should be happy. That should be enough to win them road games against everyone else on the conference schedule but Gonzaga. Remember, this is only the Cougars fourth road game, and only the first with THIS GROUP of Cougars as Carlino missed the first two and Rogers missed St. Mary's. This team will improve, and did improve tonight. If not for some careless turnovers in a late flurry of activity and full-court pressure by LMU (which BYU must learn from if they hope to win any Tourney, WCC and NCAA, games), this would have been a 15-point win. Good win. Next up, San Francisco on Saturday at the Marriott Center, 4pm. I'll be taking my son with his grandpa, so it should be fun.
I won't have time for a full-blown prediction on that game, however. I can tell you what I know: San Francisco had a disappointing start to conference play, with a double-digit loss at doormat Pepperdine and an OT loss to Loyola Marymount. They rebounded on Tuesday night with a win against 2-9 Morgan State of the MEAC. I think they are a bit overmatched, but I haven't had a chance to watch them yet this season, so I don't know much about their personnel.
A brief look at their stats for the year tells me BYU should not have much problem dispatching them. BYU struggles against teams that share the ball well. It doesn't look like the Dons have done a lot of that. They are also struggling from the 3-point line. If BYU can close out on the 3-point shooters like they did against LMU, they'll outscore San Francisco fairly easily. Michael Williams is their worst three-point shooter at 26%, with 6 attempts/game. So the Dons should probably expect a 5-7 effort out of him on Saturday. I'll go BYU 82, USF 68, Rogers goes for 15 off the bench, Davies gets another double-double, and someone besides Hartsock will go for 20+ (leads the team in 20-point games), I would lean Carlino right now but maybe Zylstra can break out of his 2-week funk. BYU needs SOMETHING out of him in conference play, 12 points in 3 games isn't gonna cut it for a starter on a team averaging 81 points in those three games.
BYU at Loyola Marymount, 1/5/2012 Preview
BYU has aspirations to contend for the West Coast Conference Title, even though they are rebuilding a bit, this season. If BYU is going to compete, not only do they need to win this game, but they need to win it convincingly, i.e. by double digits. Loyola Marymount isn't a bad team. But they are not a good team either. They clearly fall in line with the middle third of the conference. BYU needs to win by 10 or more, first, to give themselves confidence that they can win these road games, and second, to serve notice to Santa Clara and San Francisco that they're next on the Cougar Victory Chain. A close win gives Santa Clara and San Francisco hope, and a loss gives them confidence that they should beat this BYU team. Gonzaga won't even blink when BYU comes to town later in the year, and St. Mary's might just take BYU at home as well. BYU beats one of the middle of the road WCC teams on the road by double digits, and BYU is a contender. This is only BYU's fourth true road game, they are 1-2 in their previous three, with the lone win an ugly 61-42 win at Utah. A lot of good teams are getting beat down on the road against other quality opponents, just look at the top 10 the past two weeks.
If BYU hopes to make the NCAA Tournament this season, they need to win this game big. In the absence of any marquee W's yet this season, they certainly can't afford to lose to another "Utah State" type of team. Really, if BYU hopes to make the NCAA Tourney, they need the rest of their road games, excluding Gonzaga (and maybe Virginia Tech), neither of which could hurt, but they aren't a necessity. I thought this was going to be the last tricky of the road games for them. I think the opportunity to play Santa Clara and San Francisco at home first should give them the familiarity with the opponent and style of play, so they only have to adjust to the arena when they travel to play those teams. Gotta have it. Gotta have it big.
With that said, Loyola is a pretty capable offensive team. They average 71.1 points/game and are coming off a 77-point effort in a win on the road at San Francisco (70 points in regulation). They'll need more than 71 points to beat BYU, but St. Mary's didn't have any problem exceeding their season scoring average at home against BYU (22 points above the season average). They have 5 very capable scorers that will take the floor tonight. LMU is very much a perimeter-oriented team. They don't have any great outside shooters, but against BYU 18% 3-point shooters have been known to go 4-6 and score career highs against BYU...
Their slashing PG Anthony Ireland will chuck it up, averaging 4.5 attempts from deep/game, but shooting only 30%. That means he'll hit at least 3 or 4 against BYU. They have 3 other guys that shoot 3/game. They employ a 3 G/2 F or 2 G/3 F (depending on health and foul trouble) lineup. That means Abouo has to be ready to guard different types of players, Davies will have to be prepared to guard an outside-first big man, and Hartsock will be forced to guard a shorter, but quicker player. Either that or BYU will employ a lot of their 2-3 zone. I think that is most likely the case as BYU doesn't have any guard that can consistently stay in front of Ireland, excluding maybe Cusick. Carlino and Winder will get in foul trouble if they try to guard him straight-up. Carlino is actually a very good defender out of the 2-3, and with Rogers back coming off the bench, it may not be a HORRIBLE defense like it was against St. Mary's.
However, BYU cannot afford to give up open threes this game against a team they should beat. Really, though, defensively, BYU is overmatched against any decent teams they play at this point in time. Their best hope is to get in transition and outscore Loyola. The Lions are probably scoring 75 points this game. I remain convinced that BYU needs a 10-point win, i.e. 85 points, to satisfy a fanbase tired of beating up on bad teams and sucking against good or average teams. I also believe BYU can do it. The 82 points at St. Mary's and 88 against San Diego have shown that BYU can score on the road, and they can rebound from disappointment. Rogers potential return tonight might actually slow the Cougars down a bit offensively, as he'll need to adjust to game speed and road environments. 85-75, BYU.
If BYU hopes to make the NCAA Tournament this season, they need to win this game big. In the absence of any marquee W's yet this season, they certainly can't afford to lose to another "Utah State" type of team. Really, if BYU hopes to make the NCAA Tourney, they need the rest of their road games, excluding Gonzaga (and maybe Virginia Tech), neither of which could hurt, but they aren't a necessity. I thought this was going to be the last tricky of the road games for them. I think the opportunity to play Santa Clara and San Francisco at home first should give them the familiarity with the opponent and style of play, so they only have to adjust to the arena when they travel to play those teams. Gotta have it. Gotta have it big.
With that said, Loyola is a pretty capable offensive team. They average 71.1 points/game and are coming off a 77-point effort in a win on the road at San Francisco (70 points in regulation). They'll need more than 71 points to beat BYU, but St. Mary's didn't have any problem exceeding their season scoring average at home against BYU (22 points above the season average). They have 5 very capable scorers that will take the floor tonight. LMU is very much a perimeter-oriented team. They don't have any great outside shooters, but against BYU 18% 3-point shooters have been known to go 4-6 and score career highs against BYU...
Their slashing PG Anthony Ireland will chuck it up, averaging 4.5 attempts from deep/game, but shooting only 30%. That means he'll hit at least 3 or 4 against BYU. They have 3 other guys that shoot 3/game. They employ a 3 G/2 F or 2 G/3 F (depending on health and foul trouble) lineup. That means Abouo has to be ready to guard different types of players, Davies will have to be prepared to guard an outside-first big man, and Hartsock will be forced to guard a shorter, but quicker player. Either that or BYU will employ a lot of their 2-3 zone. I think that is most likely the case as BYU doesn't have any guard that can consistently stay in front of Ireland, excluding maybe Cusick. Carlino and Winder will get in foul trouble if they try to guard him straight-up. Carlino is actually a very good defender out of the 2-3, and with Rogers back coming off the bench, it may not be a HORRIBLE defense like it was against St. Mary's.
However, BYU cannot afford to give up open threes this game against a team they should beat. Really, though, defensively, BYU is overmatched against any decent teams they play at this point in time. Their best hope is to get in transition and outscore Loyola. The Lions are probably scoring 75 points this game. I remain convinced that BYU needs a 10-point win, i.e. 85 points, to satisfy a fanbase tired of beating up on bad teams and sucking against good or average teams. I also believe BYU can do it. The 82 points at St. Mary's and 88 against San Diego have shown that BYU can score on the road, and they can rebound from disappointment. Rogers potential return tonight might actually slow the Cougars down a bit offensively, as he'll need to adjust to game speed and road environments. 85-75, BYU.
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