Tyler, I do believe WCC refs are very biased towards home teams. BYU gets plenty of calls at home and gets none of them on the road. Particularly, I think Gonzaga and St. Mary's get more calls than anyone, regardless of venue. BYU definitely got hosed a bit at St. Mary's. Gaels initiated way more contact on both ends of the floor, and if not for a Davies drawing 5 or 6 fouls in 5 minutes on SMC in the 2nd half, BYU would have been called for WAY more fouls in the game...
Boomer, Haws is amazing. However, he has yet to have a GREAT game against anything resembling a good defensive team. I think he is having a similar season to what Jimmer did as a Junior, maybe not quite there, but certainly better than Jimmer's sophomore season. If that trajectory continues, that could mean great things. The biggest difference I see (besides Jimmer's range and ability to create off the dribble) is that Jimmer had better post players, so teams couldn't double and triple team him outside as easily. Haws, especially next year, is going to have to do a lot more with a lot less space.
Also, I am not sure how Rose plays it next season with his roster. He has no true C, so I guess Nate Austin or Eric Mika start at the 5. Kyle Collinsworth and Tyler Haws are probably the starting 3-4 spots. Sharp and Winder play 3-4 when one needs a rest. PG...man, I don't know where to go with that. I think Carlino starts, but if he's playing 30+ minutes he needs to get better. [I don't see why Rose dislikes Delgado. I think if he played in WCC as much as he played in non-conference, BYU wins 2-3 more games...I really do.] Regardless, that looks like a zone defense kind of team. BUT...it looks like a better offensive team. Losing Davies will be a big blow, but with Haws scoring inside and (hopefully) outside, Carlino with less pressure on him to score, Collinsworth, Austin, and Sharp on the offensive boards, and more experienced bench players like Delgado, Ambrosino, and Winder, BYU should see a dramatic increase in scoring.
Nice artice about Lone Peak High can be found here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/27/sports/utahs-lone-peak-high-school-surprisingly-climbs-to-top-of-pack.html?_r=0
Eric Mika dunk contest video:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fd-E2NBMULo
I'm trying to figure out why BYU didn't just recruit the top 6 players from Lone Peak this year. Lone Peak is 23-1 this season with the lone loss coming to the #1 team from Florida, with the game played in Florida. They beat the #1 HS teams from NC (by 4), TN (by 15), MS (by 18), CO (by 19), and PA (by 23), the #4 team from IL (by 42), and the #5 team from NV (by 38). That doesn't count beating #2 and #4 from the state of UT (by 20 and 22, respectively). They won the state semifinal by 34 without any of the starters playing a single minute in the 4th quarter. This is absolutely unprecedented by any team in the state of Utah. BYU only got 3 of these guys to play basketball for them? I recognize Bronco took one of them to play WR, but still...
IF YOU LIVE IN UTAH, GO WATCH THEM PLAY IN THE STATE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ON SATURDAY! This is a feat that will never be duplicated by any Utah team in our lifetime: 24-1, #1 High School Team IN THE NATION, with 4 of the kids going to BYU to pursue collegiate athletics. Some things in sports, you just make sacrifices for. I left my wife in a time of need and flew to New Orleans to watch Jimmer play in the Sweet 16 (a debt I still repay at times), but watching Jimmer's last collegiate game live, watching BYU in the Sweet 16, those are things you don't forget and never regret. Go to this game! I beg you. Do it for me.
Side note: BYU hosts Gonzaga tonight. It should be fun. BYU hosting a scrimmage against the future #1 CBB team in America just 4 days before they get to wear that crown.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
BYU Hoops Continues to Struggle
BYU may have gotten the win tonight against Utah State (barely) but it's apparent that they cannot defend worth a crap. Winder and Delgado are liabilities on offense, that is for sure (though I would argue that they don't take as many bad shots or have as many turnovers as Carlino). But they are solid perimeter defenders, which is exactly what BYU has needed in games against St. Mary's, Gonzaga, and San Francisco. Davies, Austin, and Kaufusi can't stay out of foul trouble because there is so much dribble penetration and so many wide-open threes (when missed, they lead to long rebounds and fouls). Without the big bodies able to log normal minutes and stay in rhythm BYU is getting killed on the boards, which leads to more second chance points, more wide open threes, and more fouls. I don't know what Delgado did to fall out of the good graces of the coaching staff, but BYU's D absolutely needs him right now.
The second problem is that BYU just doesn't have any poise. Seniors Brandon Davies, Craig Cusick, and Brock Zylstra and experienced under-classmen Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, and Nate Austin all play like freshmen when the going gets tough. When BYU needed to step up offensively or defensively, these guys picked up frustration fouls, took poor shots, or turned it over.
The final issue: consistency on offense. There are too many role players on the team. There are too many guys on O that just can't score unless they are wide open under the basket. Winder can only score in transition or when wide open at the three-point line. Kaufusi and Sharp only get the ball when they are alone next to the hoop. Austin can occasionally hit a jumper. Carlino is shooting 40% on the year: 80% in 1/3 of the games and 20% in the other 2/3. Zylstra is 0-fer on shots that actually meant something this season...
Honestly, I think the addition of Delgado would do a lot defensively. I don't know how BYU solves problem #2. Carlino is miles behind where Lee Cummard or Jimmer Fredette were mentally in their sophomore seasons. The third issue: perhaps some better defense would atone for some lack of consistency on the offensive end. At least it would prevent some of the big runs they've given up as they have struggled the past few weeks...
Either way, crazy win. Nice win. Unfortunately, now they have Thursday night at St. Mary's, then the following Thursday against Gonzaga. Need both. Anyone think they'll get EITHER?
The second problem is that BYU just doesn't have any poise. Seniors Brandon Davies, Craig Cusick, and Brock Zylstra and experienced under-classmen Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, and Nate Austin all play like freshmen when the going gets tough. When BYU needed to step up offensively or defensively, these guys picked up frustration fouls, took poor shots, or turned it over.
The final issue: consistency on offense. There are too many role players on the team. There are too many guys on O that just can't score unless they are wide open under the basket. Winder can only score in transition or when wide open at the three-point line. Kaufusi and Sharp only get the ball when they are alone next to the hoop. Austin can occasionally hit a jumper. Carlino is shooting 40% on the year: 80% in 1/3 of the games and 20% in the other 2/3. Zylstra is 0-fer on shots that actually meant something this season...
Honestly, I think the addition of Delgado would do a lot defensively. I don't know how BYU solves problem #2. Carlino is miles behind where Lee Cummard or Jimmer Fredette were mentally in their sophomore seasons. The third issue: perhaps some better defense would atone for some lack of consistency on the offensive end. At least it would prevent some of the big runs they've given up as they have struggled the past few weeks...
Either way, crazy win. Nice win. Unfortunately, now they have Thursday night at St. Mary's, then the following Thursday against Gonzaga. Need both. Anyone think they'll get EITHER?
Friday, February 1, 2013
BYU Hoops, 2/1/2013, Don't Believe It
Cougar fans are overjoyed that Joey Brackets has BYU's team so close to being in the tournament right now. Heading into what should be a great month for BYU where they can pile up wins, that would seem to be a great place to be. The problem is: there is no place for BYU to move into the tournament at its current rate. BYU can pound Portland, Pepperdine, Santa Clara, San Diego, Loyola, and San Francisco all it wants. None of those wins will move BYU into the field. The only reason Joey has them there is RPI.
RPI ranks your record against your strength of schedule. So, BYU has a good strength of schedule. The main reason for this: they played several top 100 RPI opponents in the non-conference. They also didn't play many bottom 100 RPI opponents. They lost to all the top 100 teams besides Santa Clara. They beat all the 100-200 teams. They have a good record against a not-awful schedule, as opposed to St. Mary's which has a similar record against an awful schedule.
Math would suggest that continuing to beat mediocre teams would, at the very least, keep BYU's RPI in a reasonable state. I don't argue against that. If BYU continues to beat the rest of the conference not named Gonzaga and St. Mary's, they'll finish around 45. However, the number that will really kill BYU: ZERO. As in, quality wins.
The other issue with Joey Brackets right now is the fact that he is predicting what would happen TODAY. St. Mary's will not get into the NCAA Tournament if BYU does and BYU will not get in if St. Mary's does. In order for St. Mary's to get in they would have to either a) beat Gonzaga or b) go 3-0 against BYU. Realistically, they probably need to do both. If they beat Gonzaga at home but lose to BYU at home, it doesn't help them, b/c that scenario would pit them against BYU in the semifinals of the WCC Tourney in a winner-stay-in-discussion and loser-fall-out-of-discussion game.
BYU's road is even more difficult than the one St. Mary's finds itself in. It's just math. BYU's only chance to get into the tourney is to beat tournament teams. By beating St. Mary's, they push them out of the tournament and the win doesn't "count" as much. Losing to St. Mary's doesn't help either! Beating Gonzaga would help them large, but if they go 0-3 against St. Mary's, the one win won't atone for the three losses.
If BYU goes undefeated in February and makes the WCC Tourney Final, they will make the tournament. At the cost that St. Mary's will not (and BYU's two wins against St. Mary's won't help their NCAA Tourney seeding). However, does anyone watching this BYU team think they can win at St. Mary's and beat Gonzaga and Utah State at home within a week?
With that said, this can still be a fun team to watch at times. It's a fairly young team and a few NIT home games can help them gel for what might be a decent 2013-2014 season. This just was not the year of the Mormon (Mitt, BYU Football, and BYU basketball). However, to quote my inner Cubs fan, next year is right around the corner!
RPI ranks your record against your strength of schedule. So, BYU has a good strength of schedule. The main reason for this: they played several top 100 RPI opponents in the non-conference. They also didn't play many bottom 100 RPI opponents. They lost to all the top 100 teams besides Santa Clara. They beat all the 100-200 teams. They have a good record against a not-awful schedule, as opposed to St. Mary's which has a similar record against an awful schedule.
Math would suggest that continuing to beat mediocre teams would, at the very least, keep BYU's RPI in a reasonable state. I don't argue against that. If BYU continues to beat the rest of the conference not named Gonzaga and St. Mary's, they'll finish around 45. However, the number that will really kill BYU: ZERO. As in, quality wins.
The other issue with Joey Brackets right now is the fact that he is predicting what would happen TODAY. St. Mary's will not get into the NCAA Tournament if BYU does and BYU will not get in if St. Mary's does. In order for St. Mary's to get in they would have to either a) beat Gonzaga or b) go 3-0 against BYU. Realistically, they probably need to do both. If they beat Gonzaga at home but lose to BYU at home, it doesn't help them, b/c that scenario would pit them against BYU in the semifinals of the WCC Tourney in a winner-stay-in-discussion and loser-fall-out-of-discussion game.
BYU's road is even more difficult than the one St. Mary's finds itself in. It's just math. BYU's only chance to get into the tourney is to beat tournament teams. By beating St. Mary's, they push them out of the tournament and the win doesn't "count" as much. Losing to St. Mary's doesn't help either! Beating Gonzaga would help them large, but if they go 0-3 against St. Mary's, the one win won't atone for the three losses.
If BYU goes undefeated in February and makes the WCC Tourney Final, they will make the tournament. At the cost that St. Mary's will not (and BYU's two wins against St. Mary's won't help their NCAA Tourney seeding). However, does anyone watching this BYU team think they can win at St. Mary's and beat Gonzaga and Utah State at home within a week?
With that said, this can still be a fun team to watch at times. It's a fairly young team and a few NIT home games can help them gel for what might be a decent 2013-2014 season. This just was not the year of the Mormon (Mitt, BYU Football, and BYU basketball). However, to quote my inner Cubs fan, next year is right around the corner!
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