I would argue that the Boise State-TCU game has the potential to be the fourth best bowl of the bowl season. The best non-BCS offense against the best non-BCS defense. I think this could be better than 3 of the 5 BCS games.
BUT, I also think TCU could get the beating of a lifetime. Boise State's defense does not get as much pub as the O, but they have performed just as well, and better at times. TCU's offense is serviceable, but I look at what they did against Utah and Oklahoma and think: they could struggle to score against the Broncos. I believe they will need at least 28 points to win this game. Consider the BYU game, where they dominated the entire game: they forced 3 and outs and turnovers, constantly had good field position...and scored only 32 points...not to mention that was against the BYU defense. They scored 10 against Utah and Oklahoma. Boise State's defense isn't on par with those two teams, but they aren't that much behind.
TCU's defense has only faced one really, truly proficient (and consistent) offense all season and gave up 35 to Oklahoma. Boise State's offense hasn't really faced a defense like TCU's there aren't many like theirs), but they have not had trouble scoring. The trick plays may not work quite as well, but it's all about timing. Remember, they only used 3 trick plays against OU in the Fiesta Bowl, and they were all perfectly timed and worked to perfection.
Both teams want to make a statement. I think the Broncos win, and I think they are the ones that surprise TCU, not TCU surprising Boise State. Final score: 31-20. Boise State IS the best non-BCS team. I think it's a toss-up for second between TCU and Utah. You could give the edge to Utah due to head-to-head, but on a neutral field, I believe that TCU wins that game.
Tuesday, December 23, 2008
Monday, December 22, 2008
In Summation
I think the Vegas Bowl was a good representation of BYU's team this year.
The offense moved the ball well, but had a tough time getting from the 30 to the 10 (when they got inside the 10, it was almost a guaranteed TD). Max Hall made bad throws after making bad reads and he carried the ball loosely when he scrambled. Austin Collie and one other receiver had a good game (this time Michael Reid). In addition to the turnovers, what cost BYU this game offensively, was the fact that 4 times they got in field goal range and failed to put points on the board. It is tough to win a game when you come away empty-handed on 4 possessions that you SHOULD have scored on, factoring in punts and turnovers, it's tough to get more than 21 with what's left! Max Hall has to get MUCH better before next season, especially if he loses Collie to the NFL, if BYU is to get to 10 wins again.
Defensively, BYU's biggest problem was: there weren't any Poppingas on the team. There was nobody with the leadership ability, the mentality, AND the athletic ability of the Poppingas. After a 13-10 loss several years back, someone asked Brady about the game. He said: we scored 10 points, we should NOT lose a game when our offense can put up 10 points. This year, the D's response would have been something like: our offense didn't score 42, how were we supposed to win? The mentality wasn't there, so neither were the defensive stops. David Nixon is a quiet guy, David Tafuna was injured off and on, and Kellen Fowler wasn't all that good. The seniors weren't going to step up and carry the defense on their shoulders. Matt Bauman did a great job down the stretch (led the team in tackles and forced fumbles, certainly had to be up there in big hits), but he was no Brady/Kelly Poppinga or Cameron Jensen or Brian Kehl. The MLB/OLB and FS positions are where the leaders need to be in BYU's defensive scheme, and there weren't any. Next year I don't think the leadership problem will be there: Vic So'oto and Terrance Hooks will be back at LB, so those two, Coleby Clawson, Matt Ah You, AND Bauman will be playing linebacker; that will be a pretty intimidating group. Plus put Andrew Rich back at his normal position of SS, and I think leadership, mentality, and ability will take care of itself. Still aren't any Poppingas, but it ain't a bad group.
Special teams was fine, other than all of those darn missed field goals...with Sorenson going on a mission, Payne can settle in as THE kicker.
Anyway, the team needed to improve throughout the season and they didn't. Max Hall needed to take care of the ball and he didn't. The defense needed to bend but not break, and it broke early and often. The loss to Arizona didn't come as a surprise to me. We didn't play well enough to win, because we weren't good enough to win. Not this year.
The offense moved the ball well, but had a tough time getting from the 30 to the 10 (when they got inside the 10, it was almost a guaranteed TD). Max Hall made bad throws after making bad reads and he carried the ball loosely when he scrambled. Austin Collie and one other receiver had a good game (this time Michael Reid). In addition to the turnovers, what cost BYU this game offensively, was the fact that 4 times they got in field goal range and failed to put points on the board. It is tough to win a game when you come away empty-handed on 4 possessions that you SHOULD have scored on, factoring in punts and turnovers, it's tough to get more than 21 with what's left! Max Hall has to get MUCH better before next season, especially if he loses Collie to the NFL, if BYU is to get to 10 wins again.
Defensively, BYU's biggest problem was: there weren't any Poppingas on the team. There was nobody with the leadership ability, the mentality, AND the athletic ability of the Poppingas. After a 13-10 loss several years back, someone asked Brady about the game. He said: we scored 10 points, we should NOT lose a game when our offense can put up 10 points. This year, the D's response would have been something like: our offense didn't score 42, how were we supposed to win? The mentality wasn't there, so neither were the defensive stops. David Nixon is a quiet guy, David Tafuna was injured off and on, and Kellen Fowler wasn't all that good. The seniors weren't going to step up and carry the defense on their shoulders. Matt Bauman did a great job down the stretch (led the team in tackles and forced fumbles, certainly had to be up there in big hits), but he was no Brady/Kelly Poppinga or Cameron Jensen or Brian Kehl. The MLB/OLB and FS positions are where the leaders need to be in BYU's defensive scheme, and there weren't any. Next year I don't think the leadership problem will be there: Vic So'oto and Terrance Hooks will be back at LB, so those two, Coleby Clawson, Matt Ah You, AND Bauman will be playing linebacker; that will be a pretty intimidating group. Plus put Andrew Rich back at his normal position of SS, and I think leadership, mentality, and ability will take care of itself. Still aren't any Poppingas, but it ain't a bad group.
Special teams was fine, other than all of those darn missed field goals...with Sorenson going on a mission, Payne can settle in as THE kicker.
Anyway, the team needed to improve throughout the season and they didn't. Max Hall needed to take care of the ball and he didn't. The defense needed to bend but not break, and it broke early and often. The loss to Arizona didn't come as a surprise to me. We didn't play well enough to win, because we weren't good enough to win. Not this year.
Friday, December 19, 2008
Let the Bowling Begin
Well, typically the first Saturday of the bowl season is riddled with games that you don't care about one iota. I think this season we have some very interesting matchups on day one. In fact, I think a lot more bowls than usual are pitting two fairly equal teams against each other. I am glad the Poinsettia Bowl was able to swing Boise State vs. TCU. Otherwise we would have had Boise State vs. Maryland (yawn) and TCU vs. Nevada (zzz). Anyway, now to day one:
Wake Forest vs. Navy. This game puts two fairly similar offenses together. Navy runs the more traditional option. Wake runs the spread option, with a little more passing mixed in. Navy won the game played earlier this season thanks in large part to 6 turnovers by Wake, two in the red zone. The experts say that Wake is a much improved team since then. I personally find that hard to believe considering they went 4-4 after that game, but they could be. On the flip side however, Navy was struggling early on in the season and came on late as well. Wake's D is playing better of late after a mid-season funk, but Navy's D was lights out down the stretch. I know it's tough to beat a team twice in the same season but I believe that Navy will do it, and I think they will win by more than the did the first time. I'm predicted a 10-point win for the Middies, 31-21. It should be interesting to see how the Butkus Award winner does against Navy's option attack. If you hear Aaron Curry's name a dozen or more times, throw my prediction out the window!
Colorado State vs. Fresno State: two pro-style offenses (though I would call Fresno's pro-style with a college twist), two hard-nosed defenses geared to stop the run. This, along with BYU-Zona, is a game where motivation could really favor one opponent. Fresno has done the bowl thing a lot lately and was hoping to bust the BCS this year. Their coach may be moving on to greener pastures (or at least another pasture where people aren't upset with him). With expectations higher this year than last, they performed worse. Their "good" early season wins (and near wins) didn't look as impressive as the season wore on. Rutgers was not good, Wisconsin stunk up the place, and UCLA was, well, in the Pac 10, and not near the top of the standings. Colorado State has been down of late, but not out. The seniors have been to a bowl game ONCE, the others haven't yet. So they will be ready and raring to go. I really think it's tough for ANYBODY to get excited about the New Mexico bowl, but I think the Rams of Colorado State will be pumped enough to take down Pat Hill's Bulldogs, 27-20.
Memphis vs. South Florida: you know how I said most of the bowls look exciting. This is one of those others. I'd love to see Memphis take down their former C-USA foe. They have the offense to do it, but they don't have the defense. South Florida 45-31.
BYU vs. Arizona: well, this should be interesting. First off, let me say: I think this is a bad matchup for BYU: it is a lose-lose situation, and it's against a team they beat last year, who is going to their first bowl game since I was playing high school ball. BYU has had a few games where they absolutely dominated, but has had others where they looked a "little" lackluster/like they didn't belong in the top 20, 30, or even 40. Arizona nearly pulled off an upset against USC and did beat California, but they also lost to New Mexico, Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. BYU is 2-2 against teams going bowling and Arizona is 1-3. Both teams are capable of winning BIG, but both are also capable of laying an egg. My guess is one half BYU will dominate and the other Arizona will (and whoever dominates the second half wins). Arizona has the fire of playing in their first bowl game in a long time, but also the lack of familiarity with the environment surrounding bowl games. BYU players feel like Vegas was a disappointing stop for this year's bowl season, but they do know what it takes to prepare for and win a bowl game there against a near-.500 Pac 10 team. I think BYU has enough motivation (seniors playing their last game, some juniors playing to jumpstart next season's potential BCS run, other juniors playing for NFL stock...) to avoid getting blown out. I think Arizona has too much motivation (and speed) to get blown out.
I look for Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta to get theirs, possibly both going for over 100 yards (assuming Pitta doesn't get knocked out early). Harvey Unga needs to get his 75-80 to keep balance offensively and Fui needs to get some carries as well. Besides, the more that BYU runs the ball, the less opportunity there is for Max Hall to turn it over 6 times (though I'm sure they'll come out slinging to "prove" he's a great QB). Defensively, they need to stop the run/short passes and force Arizona to throw the ball deep. They cannot give up short passes and screens all day long and expect to win. Move the corners up about 10 yards, so they appear on my TV screen and it doesn't look like 9 on 11. I do expect a physical game, where offenses dominate. I expect some points to be scored. If it goes in to the high 30's, I like BYU, if it stays below that I like Arizona.
The game will probably come down to Max Hall in the fourth quarter, which, if you saw the Utah game, scares you, but if you saw almost every other game this season, should excite you. I think Arizona's defense (or BYU's QB) makes one more play than BYU's D. Wildcats 35, Other Wild Cats 31. I am not confident enough in the Jekyll and Hyde Cougars to believe they play well enough for 4 quarters to win this game: I hope they prove me wrong! Dead wrong. I'd love to see another 38-8 whooping of a Pac 10 team!
Wake Forest vs. Navy. This game puts two fairly similar offenses together. Navy runs the more traditional option. Wake runs the spread option, with a little more passing mixed in. Navy won the game played earlier this season thanks in large part to 6 turnovers by Wake, two in the red zone. The experts say that Wake is a much improved team since then. I personally find that hard to believe considering they went 4-4 after that game, but they could be. On the flip side however, Navy was struggling early on in the season and came on late as well. Wake's D is playing better of late after a mid-season funk, but Navy's D was lights out down the stretch. I know it's tough to beat a team twice in the same season but I believe that Navy will do it, and I think they will win by more than the did the first time. I'm predicted a 10-point win for the Middies, 31-21. It should be interesting to see how the Butkus Award winner does against Navy's option attack. If you hear Aaron Curry's name a dozen or more times, throw my prediction out the window!
Colorado State vs. Fresno State: two pro-style offenses (though I would call Fresno's pro-style with a college twist), two hard-nosed defenses geared to stop the run. This, along with BYU-Zona, is a game where motivation could really favor one opponent. Fresno has done the bowl thing a lot lately and was hoping to bust the BCS this year. Their coach may be moving on to greener pastures (or at least another pasture where people aren't upset with him). With expectations higher this year than last, they performed worse. Their "good" early season wins (and near wins) didn't look as impressive as the season wore on. Rutgers was not good, Wisconsin stunk up the place, and UCLA was, well, in the Pac 10, and not near the top of the standings. Colorado State has been down of late, but not out. The seniors have been to a bowl game ONCE, the others haven't yet. So they will be ready and raring to go. I really think it's tough for ANYBODY to get excited about the New Mexico bowl, but I think the Rams of Colorado State will be pumped enough to take down Pat Hill's Bulldogs, 27-20.
Memphis vs. South Florida: you know how I said most of the bowls look exciting. This is one of those others. I'd love to see Memphis take down their former C-USA foe. They have the offense to do it, but they don't have the defense. South Florida 45-31.
BYU vs. Arizona: well, this should be interesting. First off, let me say: I think this is a bad matchup for BYU: it is a lose-lose situation, and it's against a team they beat last year, who is going to their first bowl game since I was playing high school ball. BYU has had a few games where they absolutely dominated, but has had others where they looked a "little" lackluster/like they didn't belong in the top 20, 30, or even 40. Arizona nearly pulled off an upset against USC and did beat California, but they also lost to New Mexico, Stanford, Oregon, and Oregon State. BYU is 2-2 against teams going bowling and Arizona is 1-3. Both teams are capable of winning BIG, but both are also capable of laying an egg. My guess is one half BYU will dominate and the other Arizona will (and whoever dominates the second half wins). Arizona has the fire of playing in their first bowl game in a long time, but also the lack of familiarity with the environment surrounding bowl games. BYU players feel like Vegas was a disappointing stop for this year's bowl season, but they do know what it takes to prepare for and win a bowl game there against a near-.500 Pac 10 team. I think BYU has enough motivation (seniors playing their last game, some juniors playing to jumpstart next season's potential BCS run, other juniors playing for NFL stock...) to avoid getting blown out. I think Arizona has too much motivation (and speed) to get blown out.
I look for Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta to get theirs, possibly both going for over 100 yards (assuming Pitta doesn't get knocked out early). Harvey Unga needs to get his 75-80 to keep balance offensively and Fui needs to get some carries as well. Besides, the more that BYU runs the ball, the less opportunity there is for Max Hall to turn it over 6 times (though I'm sure they'll come out slinging to "prove" he's a great QB). Defensively, they need to stop the run/short passes and force Arizona to throw the ball deep. They cannot give up short passes and screens all day long and expect to win. Move the corners up about 10 yards, so they appear on my TV screen and it doesn't look like 9 on 11. I do expect a physical game, where offenses dominate. I expect some points to be scored. If it goes in to the high 30's, I like BYU, if it stays below that I like Arizona.
The game will probably come down to Max Hall in the fourth quarter, which, if you saw the Utah game, scares you, but if you saw almost every other game this season, should excite you. I think Arizona's defense (or BYU's QB) makes one more play than BYU's D. Wildcats 35, Other Wild Cats 31. I am not confident enough in the Jekyll and Hyde Cougars to believe they play well enough for 4 quarters to win this game: I hope they prove me wrong! Dead wrong. I'd love to see another 38-8 whooping of a Pac 10 team!
Monday, December 15, 2008
To BYU Fans
I have talked with a lot of BYU fans over the course of this football season. Many of you have seemed upset at the year the Cougars had. To be honest I was not all that surprised. What surprised me the most about BYU's season was this:
Austin Collie being the nation's top receiver in yards.
Dennis Pitta being the nation's second tight end in yards.
Harvey Unga having the quietest 1,000 yard season I can remember. I had to double-check to make sure that he did get over 1,000.
Max Hall throwing 7 touchdowns against a BCS team.
The defense recording consecutive shutouts.
Austin Collie's 2 drops per game.
Dennis Pitta disappearing for a couple of games in a row.
Harvey Unga averaging less than 5 yards per carry with the people he had blocking for him.
Max Hall having the worst quarter I have ever seen by a collegiate quarterback.
The defense only getting 9 interceptions while giving up 207 passing yards per game in a run-oriented conference.
There were ups and downs this year, as in most seasons. They won some games they needed to win, and also lost some as well. While they didn't win the conference or go to a BCS game, they are still ranked in the top 20 (and will be in the top 15 if they win their bowl game). They won 10 or more games for the 3rd straight season. Only 5 other teams in the country can say that: Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Boise State, and Ohio State. That is not a bad crew to be included with (although all of those teams have been to BCS games in their current streaks and all but Boise State is going to one this year). This year BYU started in the top 20. If they win their bowl game they will start there again next year. I told my brother several years back that 2009 would be the year for BYU. The steady recruiting wasn't there and so one season the offense would be dominant (2006), the next the defense would carry the team (2007), the next the offense would have to shoulder the load (2008), and, in 2009, they would finally both be where they need to be to be a serious BCS contender. They have a few obstacles to overcome, but these obstacles are ones that previous teams had no chance of overcoming, where I believe next year's team might just could do it.
This wasn't a disappointing season, it was right on schedule. I'll take 3 consecutive 10-win seasons and 3 consecutive top-25 finishes over the 3-year stretch BYU had from 2003-2005! Consistency will finally pay off in 2009, where 11-1 might even be good enough to go to a BCS game.
Austin Collie being the nation's top receiver in yards.
Dennis Pitta being the nation's second tight end in yards.
Harvey Unga having the quietest 1,000 yard season I can remember. I had to double-check to make sure that he did get over 1,000.
Max Hall throwing 7 touchdowns against a BCS team.
The defense recording consecutive shutouts.
Austin Collie's 2 drops per game.
Dennis Pitta disappearing for a couple of games in a row.
Harvey Unga averaging less than 5 yards per carry with the people he had blocking for him.
Max Hall having the worst quarter I have ever seen by a collegiate quarterback.
The defense only getting 9 interceptions while giving up 207 passing yards per game in a run-oriented conference.
There were ups and downs this year, as in most seasons. They won some games they needed to win, and also lost some as well. While they didn't win the conference or go to a BCS game, they are still ranked in the top 20 (and will be in the top 15 if they win their bowl game). They won 10 or more games for the 3rd straight season. Only 5 other teams in the country can say that: Oklahoma, Texas, USC, Boise State, and Ohio State. That is not a bad crew to be included with (although all of those teams have been to BCS games in their current streaks and all but Boise State is going to one this year). This year BYU started in the top 20. If they win their bowl game they will start there again next year. I told my brother several years back that 2009 would be the year for BYU. The steady recruiting wasn't there and so one season the offense would be dominant (2006), the next the defense would carry the team (2007), the next the offense would have to shoulder the load (2008), and, in 2009, they would finally both be where they need to be to be a serious BCS contender. They have a few obstacles to overcome, but these obstacles are ones that previous teams had no chance of overcoming, where I believe next year's team might just could do it.
This wasn't a disappointing season, it was right on schedule. I'll take 3 consecutive 10-win seasons and 3 consecutive top-25 finishes over the 3-year stretch BYU had from 2003-2005! Consistency will finally pay off in 2009, where 11-1 might even be good enough to go to a BCS game.
Sunday, December 14, 2008
A Few Heisman Thoughts
I believe Sam Bradford is a great QB. I do not believe he should have been a Heisman winning QB. I think the past two years have shown: stats are all that matters. I wonder if Sam Bradford would have won IF Oklahoma hadn't have scored 60 points in 5 straight games (NCAA record).
Here's how I view the 3 finalists:
Sam Bradford is phenomenal, especially for a sophomore. But I think if you took him off of Oklahoma and replaced him with McCoy, Tebow, Graham Harrell, Zach Robinson, Max Hall, David Johnson (Tulsa), Mark Sanchez, Nate Davis (Ball State), and maybe a handful of other guys, I think you could have seen similar production in stats, and probably fairly identical results in the win column. Oklahoma is one of the two best teams in the country (with USC). They have a stable of good running backs, a corps of blue-chippers catching passes at WR and TE, and the offensive line could easily transition to the Detroit Lions and improve their team dramatically. Also, the one loss that Oklahoma had was because their offense couldn't put up points in the second half against Texas, which can, at least partially, be blamed on Bradford.
Colt McCoy was absolutely indispensable to his team. You could not take McCoy off of Texas and expect them to be ranked number 3 in the country: there isn't someone who combines athletic ability with his arm (Tebow's got the athletic ability and then some, Bradford's got the arm and then some, but no one has the combo like the Real McCoy). The ground game was pretty much non-existent, McCoy was actually the leading rusher on the team and there is no close second. His receivers were pretty darn good, but I'd take Manuel Johnson and Ryan Broyles (OU's 3rd and 4th receivers) over Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby (UT's 1st and 2nd-by the way, they don't have a third option). The offensive line was solid but it wasn't loaded with NFL talent at each position like OU and a few other teams. In Texas' one loss, McCoy led Texas to a potential game-winning touchdown with under a minute to go, it was the defense that lost it for the Longhorns.
There is only one Tim Tebow. You put any other dual threat quarterback in the country on Florida's team, and Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC title game. Florida is a great team, but Tebow is why Florida is worth watching. THIS season, however, he did a lot more handing off to the talented guys around him (you can get any service academy QB to do that). He is a great leader and is as competitive as they come. He had a good O-line, a great offense that was tailored to his strengths with a great signal caller (who won't be there next year), and 5 guys he could get the ball to in space and watch them break big plays. In Florida's lone loss, Tebow was stopped on two consecutive running plays, including a 4th and one, that ultimately cost his team the game. Granted, if they blocked better on extra points, it would have gone to OT...
If I had a vote (which I don't and never will) it would look like this:
1. Colt McCoy
2. Michael Crabtree
3. Sam Bradford
4. Tim Tebow
5. Rey Maualuga (that guy scares me to death, I'm afraid if I didn't put him on here he would hunt me down and kill me and my family, then hunt down my in-laws and extended family and anyone I work with or who has the same last name as me or anyone that might have spoken to me at some point in my life, ever)
Here's how I view the 3 finalists:
Sam Bradford is phenomenal, especially for a sophomore. But I think if you took him off of Oklahoma and replaced him with McCoy, Tebow, Graham Harrell, Zach Robinson, Max Hall, David Johnson (Tulsa), Mark Sanchez, Nate Davis (Ball State), and maybe a handful of other guys, I think you could have seen similar production in stats, and probably fairly identical results in the win column. Oklahoma is one of the two best teams in the country (with USC). They have a stable of good running backs, a corps of blue-chippers catching passes at WR and TE, and the offensive line could easily transition to the Detroit Lions and improve their team dramatically. Also, the one loss that Oklahoma had was because their offense couldn't put up points in the second half against Texas, which can, at least partially, be blamed on Bradford.
Colt McCoy was absolutely indispensable to his team. You could not take McCoy off of Texas and expect them to be ranked number 3 in the country: there isn't someone who combines athletic ability with his arm (Tebow's got the athletic ability and then some, Bradford's got the arm and then some, but no one has the combo like the Real McCoy). The ground game was pretty much non-existent, McCoy was actually the leading rusher on the team and there is no close second. His receivers were pretty darn good, but I'd take Manuel Johnson and Ryan Broyles (OU's 3rd and 4th receivers) over Jordan Shipley and Quan Cosby (UT's 1st and 2nd-by the way, they don't have a third option). The offensive line was solid but it wasn't loaded with NFL talent at each position like OU and a few other teams. In Texas' one loss, McCoy led Texas to a potential game-winning touchdown with under a minute to go, it was the defense that lost it for the Longhorns.
There is only one Tim Tebow. You put any other dual threat quarterback in the country on Florida's team, and Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC title game. Florida is a great team, but Tebow is why Florida is worth watching. THIS season, however, he did a lot more handing off to the talented guys around him (you can get any service academy QB to do that). He is a great leader and is as competitive as they come. He had a good O-line, a great offense that was tailored to his strengths with a great signal caller (who won't be there next year), and 5 guys he could get the ball to in space and watch them break big plays. In Florida's lone loss, Tebow was stopped on two consecutive running plays, including a 4th and one, that ultimately cost his team the game. Granted, if they blocked better on extra points, it would have gone to OT...
If I had a vote (which I don't and never will) it would look like this:
1. Colt McCoy
2. Michael Crabtree
3. Sam Bradford
4. Tim Tebow
5. Rey Maualuga (that guy scares me to death, I'm afraid if I didn't put him on here he would hunt me down and kill me and my family, then hunt down my in-laws and extended family and anyone I work with or who has the same last name as me or anyone that might have spoken to me at some point in my life, ever)
Thursday, December 11, 2008
A Look Ahead
I know it is WAY TOO EARLY to be discussing this, but I have a few predictions about the Mountain West Conference for the 2009 football season.
1) The winner of the BYU-TCU game will win the conference and go to a BCS game. Assuming Utah doesn't get creamed against Alabama, TCU beats or nearly beats Boise State, and BYU pounds Arizona (I think that's the biggest assumption of the three), the conference should be able to hold on to some of the respect they earned this season. This puts an undefeated, or even a 1-loss, MWC champion ahead of pretty much any other non-BCS team (OK, I'll say it, Boise State is the only one that could be ahead of an MWC champion), and almost assuredly in the top 12 automatic qualifying range. With Patterson coaching TCU and Mendenhall at BYU, the winner of the TCU-BYU game will have 1 loss or less.
2) Utah will mourn the loss of Gary Anderson more than any other person. Without him coaching that D, I think they would have been lucky to go 10-2, and they could have been as bad as 7-5 (Michigan, Oregon State, New Mexico, TCU, and BYU all could have gone the other way without the defensive genius of Mr. Anderson-we'll never know, but my money would have been on 9-3). I think they will finish around 4th-5th next year. They have to travel to UNLV, TCU, CSU, and BYU in conference, and to Oregon and San Jose State out of conference. I see 4 losses there.
3) New Mexico will not get bowl eligible again. Their season hit the crapper when Porterie went down: he'll be back, but without Ferguson to carry the ball, Rocky Long to coach it up, and Deandre Wright at corner, it's going to be rough. I feel sorry for the new coach in Albuquerque. They have a brutal non-conference slate and have a couple of big road games in conference: at TCU and at Utah. I don't see how they get to 6.
4) SDSU and Wyoming will bring up the rear again, with New Mexico nearby. Maybe they should have given their respective coaches one more year. Are they going to be able to get anyone better? If they do happen to find someone better, when they finally have one good season, their new coaches will move on to better jobs elsewhere, and they'll be right back to square one.
5) The conference will produce a first round draft pick. I know, it's sad, USC's backfield will probably produce two first round picks...but it's big news for the Mountain West.
1) The winner of the BYU-TCU game will win the conference and go to a BCS game. Assuming Utah doesn't get creamed against Alabama, TCU beats or nearly beats Boise State, and BYU pounds Arizona (I think that's the biggest assumption of the three), the conference should be able to hold on to some of the respect they earned this season. This puts an undefeated, or even a 1-loss, MWC champion ahead of pretty much any other non-BCS team (OK, I'll say it, Boise State is the only one that could be ahead of an MWC champion), and almost assuredly in the top 12 automatic qualifying range. With Patterson coaching TCU and Mendenhall at BYU, the winner of the TCU-BYU game will have 1 loss or less.
2) Utah will mourn the loss of Gary Anderson more than any other person. Without him coaching that D, I think they would have been lucky to go 10-2, and they could have been as bad as 7-5 (Michigan, Oregon State, New Mexico, TCU, and BYU all could have gone the other way without the defensive genius of Mr. Anderson-we'll never know, but my money would have been on 9-3). I think they will finish around 4th-5th next year. They have to travel to UNLV, TCU, CSU, and BYU in conference, and to Oregon and San Jose State out of conference. I see 4 losses there.
3) New Mexico will not get bowl eligible again. Their season hit the crapper when Porterie went down: he'll be back, but without Ferguson to carry the ball, Rocky Long to coach it up, and Deandre Wright at corner, it's going to be rough. I feel sorry for the new coach in Albuquerque. They have a brutal non-conference slate and have a couple of big road games in conference: at TCU and at Utah. I don't see how they get to 6.
4) SDSU and Wyoming will bring up the rear again, with New Mexico nearby. Maybe they should have given their respective coaches one more year. Are they going to be able to get anyone better? If they do happen to find someone better, when they finally have one good season, their new coaches will move on to better jobs elsewhere, and they'll be right back to square one.
5) The conference will produce a first round draft pick. I know, it's sad, USC's backfield will probably produce two first round picks...but it's big news for the Mountain West.
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
The final rankings: Florida-OU in the Title Game
Maybe the BCS got it right this time. Well, at least they have the same two teams in the National Championship that the Mo Knows rankings came up with. The only difference in the BCS, based on my rankings, would have been that Boise State would have received the automatic berth, not Utah. The strength of schedule really killed Utah. Surprisingly, it REALLY helped Boise State, as their schedule pushed them ahead of Texas Tech, Ohio State, Penn State, and USC. But again, the schedules on those 4 wasn't exactly overwhelming. Tech played in the Big 12 South, but played TWO I-AA teams out of conference. Ohio State played USC and Penn State, and bunch of teams from Ohio with losing records. Penn State played Ohio State and Oregon State combined with a Big 10 slate. USC played Ohio State and Oregon State and the rest of the Pac 10. I guess it wasn't Boise State's strength of schedule, but rather the teams ahead of them and their weak schedules. Utah got passed up by several ACC squads. There's the moral of the story: parity in a conference makes for a tougher schedule than a very top heavy conference.
Obviously, it isn't perfect, but I'll make tweaks to it next year and see how it works out (first step will be to reduce the number of times strength of schedule is applied from 5 to 2). Anyway, more to come later about bowls and such. Tata for now.
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Florida |
| 2 | Oklahoma |
| 3 | Texas |
| 4 | Alabama |
| 5 | Boise State |
| 6 | USC |
| 7 | Ohio State |
| 8 | Cincinnati |
| 9 | Florida State |
| 10 | Georgia Tech |
| 11 | Nebraska |
| 12 | Texas Tech |
| 13 | Penn State |
| 14 | Michigan State |
| 15 | OK State |
| 16 | Pittsburgh |
| 17 | Georgia |
| 18 | Oregon |
| 19 | Virginia Tech |
| 20 | Utah |
| 21 | Rice |
| 22 | TCU |
| 23 | Ball State |
| 24 | California |
| 25 | BYU |
| 26 | Missouri |
| 27 | East Carolina |
| 28 | Northwestern |
| 29 | Ole Miss |
| 30 | Oregon State |
| 31 | Iowa |
| 32 | Boston College |
| 33 | Kansas |
| 34 | Western Michigan |
| 35 | Troy |
| 36 | Navy |
| 37 | North Carolina |
| 38 | Tulsa |
| 39 | Rutgers |
| 40 | Air Force |
| 41 | Clemson |
| 42 | Buffalo |
| 43 | Wake Forest |
| 44 | West Virginia |
| 45 | Wisconsin |
| 46 | Central Michigan |
| 47 | Maryland |
| 48 | Nevada |
| 49 | Minnesota |
| 50 | Fresno State |
| 51 | South Carolina |
| 52 | South Florida |
| 53 | Arizona |
| 54 | Hawaii |
| 55 | Miami |
| 56 | Houston |
| 57 | Connecticut |
| 58 | LSU |
| 59 | Louisiana Tech |
Obviously, it isn't perfect, but I'll make tweaks to it next year and see how it works out (first step will be to reduce the number of times strength of schedule is applied from 5 to 2). Anyway, more to come later about bowls and such. Tata for now.
Saturday, December 6, 2008
The Final Weekend
It is a sad time for all of us: the end of the college football season is upon us. Time for my final picks. I am 2 for 3 so far, missing on Ball State's second half collapse. So here they are, one last time:
Connecticut over Pittsburgh, 34-24: Pitt is one of the best teams at playing down to the level of competition. They have been so inconsistent, it's amazing to me they got to 8 wins. Then again, in the Big East, if they didn't win 8...
Tulsa over East Carolina, 45-24: Remember the hype about ECU after 3 games? Let's play a few games before we crown BCS busters next time around.
Navy over Army, 38-13: it'll probably be pretty close at the half, but that triple-option attack will wear Army down. Let's just hope it doesn't happen to our troops in the field...
Virginia Tech over Boston College, 27-17: Defense wins championships. Virginia Tech has one, Boston College has something resembling a defense.
Washington under California 48-10: ZERO wins. Ouch. Good luck, Mr. Sarkisian. If anybody can do it, you can. My advice: find a good defensive coordinator, fast!
USC over UCLA 45-9: Rivalry game? Well, when you are this superior to your rival, you have to take it to them. USC has already stated they don't think they'll need their timeouts. I'm pretty sure they'll back that up with their play on the field.
Arizona State over Arizona, 17-14: In their 12th game of the season, preseason number 15 FINALLY gets bowl eligible. Good thing we have those preseason polls: they are a very accurate predictor of how the season will play out. Joke! Only 4 of the preseason top 10 are still in the top 10. One team in the top 10 didn't even get bowl eligible (Auburn). What a waste of energy and excitement when we could have spent August campaigning for socialism.
West Virginia over South Florida, 48-24: Remember when South Florida was ranked number two last year and everybody talked about the newfound strength of their program? This year they played 5 teams with winning records: 2-3, both wins coming at home by 4 points or less...not a good program. They are the Kansas of the Big East: light on the schedule, easy on the wins.
Hawaii over Cincinnati 31-24: traveling thousands of miles after you have already clinched a BCS Bowl berth, why would they show up? I wouldn't. How many chances is a kid from Ohio going to have to go to the Sandwich Islands? Party, have a good time, head out for some football, and then enjoy the Hula dancers. That's what I'd do...if I wasn't married...and if I had enough ability to play football for a Big East team...that darn hamstring keeps holding me back...
The two big ones:
Oklahoma clobbers Missouri, 52-27: Missouri has a chance, but if they don't take it early, this one could be over by the start of the second quarter. That's been OU's formula for success: drop 35 in the first quarter and call it good. And against a Missouri defense that gave up 40 to Kansas?!?!
I can't understand why nobody gives Alabama a chance. They are the only major college football team to go undefeated through the regular season. They are the number 1 team in the country with the best defense east of USC and defense wins championships, last time I checked (explains why BYU is number 3 in the Mountain West). Florida is all flash and no heart. The number one team in the country is the underdog?!? Absolutely ridiculous!
Florida over Alabama 45-17.
Connecticut over Pittsburgh, 34-24: Pitt is one of the best teams at playing down to the level of competition. They have been so inconsistent, it's amazing to me they got to 8 wins. Then again, in the Big East, if they didn't win 8...
Tulsa over East Carolina, 45-24: Remember the hype about ECU after 3 games? Let's play a few games before we crown BCS busters next time around.
Navy over Army, 38-13: it'll probably be pretty close at the half, but that triple-option attack will wear Army down. Let's just hope it doesn't happen to our troops in the field...
Virginia Tech over Boston College, 27-17: Defense wins championships. Virginia Tech has one, Boston College has something resembling a defense.
Washington under California 48-10: ZERO wins. Ouch. Good luck, Mr. Sarkisian. If anybody can do it, you can. My advice: find a good defensive coordinator, fast!
USC over UCLA 45-9: Rivalry game? Well, when you are this superior to your rival, you have to take it to them. USC has already stated they don't think they'll need their timeouts. I'm pretty sure they'll back that up with their play on the field.
Arizona State over Arizona, 17-14: In their 12th game of the season, preseason number 15 FINALLY gets bowl eligible. Good thing we have those preseason polls: they are a very accurate predictor of how the season will play out. Joke! Only 4 of the preseason top 10 are still in the top 10. One team in the top 10 didn't even get bowl eligible (Auburn). What a waste of energy and excitement when we could have spent August campaigning for socialism.
West Virginia over South Florida, 48-24: Remember when South Florida was ranked number two last year and everybody talked about the newfound strength of their program? This year they played 5 teams with winning records: 2-3, both wins coming at home by 4 points or less...not a good program. They are the Kansas of the Big East: light on the schedule, easy on the wins.
Hawaii over Cincinnati 31-24: traveling thousands of miles after you have already clinched a BCS Bowl berth, why would they show up? I wouldn't. How many chances is a kid from Ohio going to have to go to the Sandwich Islands? Party, have a good time, head out for some football, and then enjoy the Hula dancers. That's what I'd do...if I wasn't married...and if I had enough ability to play football for a Big East team...that darn hamstring keeps holding me back...
The two big ones:
Oklahoma clobbers Missouri, 52-27: Missouri has a chance, but if they don't take it early, this one could be over by the start of the second quarter. That's been OU's formula for success: drop 35 in the first quarter and call it good. And against a Missouri defense that gave up 40 to Kansas?!?!
I can't understand why nobody gives Alabama a chance. They are the only major college football team to go undefeated through the regular season. They are the number 1 team in the country with the best defense east of USC and defense wins championships, last time I checked (explains why BYU is number 3 in the Mountain West). Florida is all flash and no heart. The number one team in the country is the underdog?!? Absolutely ridiculous!
Florida over Alabama 45-17.
Thursday, December 4, 2008
Mo Knows Rankings
Here are the rankings (note that I would have Texas playing Missouri in the Big 12 Championship game-as it stands, since they don't play and, therefore, can't lose, Texas will be ranked number 2 and play in my National Championship game against the winner of the Florida-Alabama game, assuming their strength of schedule doesn't drop them to number 3 when I apply that again after the weekend games):
Any thoughts from my wise readers? I think other than Nebraska and Rice, the top 25 is a pretty accurate representation of what it really is.
| Rank | Team | Record | Previous |
| 1 | Florida | 11-1 | 1 |
| 2 | Texas | 11-1 | 2 |
| 3 | USC | 10-1 | 3 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 11-1 | 4 |
| 5 | Alabama | 12-0 | 5 |
| 6 | Penn State | 11-1 | 6 |
| 7 | Ohio State | 10-2 | 7 |
| 8 | Texas Tech | 11-1 | 10 |
| 9 | Boise State | 12-0 | 11 |
| 10 | Cincinnati | 10-2 | 13 |
| 11 | Georgia Tech | 9-3 | 16 |
| 12 | OK State | 9-3 | 8 |
| 13 | Utah | 12-0 | 14 |
| 14 | Ball State | 12-0 | 15 |
| 15 | Oregon | 9-3 | 26 |
| 16 | Nebraska | 8-4 | 17 |
| 17 | Rice | 9-3 | 20 |
| 18 | TCU | 10-2 | 22 |
| 19 | Florida State | 8-4 | 18 |
| 20 | Tulsa | 10-2 | 24 |
| 21 | BYU | 10-2 | 25 |
| 22 | Northwestern | 9-3 | 27 |
| 23 | Michigan State | 9-3 | 28 |
| 24 | Pittsburgh | 8-3 | 29 |
| 25 | Georgia | 9-3 | 9 |
| 26 | Boston College | 9-3 | 30 |
| 27 | Missouri | 9-3 | 12 |
| 28 | Western Michigan | 9-3 | 21 |
| 29 | Ole Miss | 8-4 | 31 |
| 30 | Va Tech | 8-4 | 32 |
| 31 | Iowa | 8-4 | 34 |
| 32 | California | 7-4 | 37 |
| 33 | Navy | 7-4 | 39 |
| 34 | Troy | 7-4 | 42 |
| 35 | Kansas | 7-5 | 43 |
| 36 | ECU | 8-4 | 45 |
| 37 | South Florida | 7-4 | 46 |
| 38 | Air Force | 8-4 | 47 |
| 39 | Oregon State | 8-4 | 19 |
| 40 | West Virginia | 7-4 | 35 |
| 41 | Central Michigan | 8-4 | 36 |
| 42 | Wisconsin | 7-5 | 49 |
| 43 | Connecticut | 7-4 | 52 |
| 44 | North Carolina | 8-4 | 53 |
| 45 | Rutgers | 6-5 | 55 |
| 46 | Clemson | 7-5 | 56 |
| 47 | Hawaii | 7-5 | 57 |
| 48 | Nevada | 7-5 | 58 |
| 49 | Arizona | 6-5 | 59 |
| 50 | Wake Forest | 7-5 | 60 |
| 51 | Minnesota | 7-5 | 61 |
| 52 | Arkansas State | 7-5 | N/A |
| 53 | Fresno State | 7-5 | 41 |
| 54 | Houston | 7-5 | 38 |
| 55 | Maryland | 7-5 | 48 |
| 56 | Louisiana Tech | 7-5 | 40 |
| 57 | South Carolina | 7-5 | 23 |
| 58 | Buffalo | 7-5 | 33 |
| 59 | Miami | 7-5 | 50 |
| 60 | LSU | 7-5 | 51 |
Any thoughts from my wise readers? I think other than Nebraska and Rice, the top 25 is a pretty accurate representation of what it really is.
Monday, December 1, 2008
OU-Texas
Sorry for the extended absence. Holidays and all, you know.
So, OU is going to the Big 12 Championship Game. Texas got screwed? Who did it, and why did it happen? First off, let's look at the human polls. What exactly are they trying to measure? Well, you ask all the pollsters and each one will have a different opinion. Are they trying to measure who has had the best season? Maybe. Are they trying to measure who is the best team right now? Maybe. Well, who had the better season as a whole: probably Oklahoma. Who is the better team right now: probably Oklahoma. Who won head to head: Texas, definitely. Well, whatever they are trying to measure, the human polls are neck and neck, with a slight lead to Texas actually.
Secondly, let's look at the computers, since they are what put OU ahead of UT. Compare these two schedules:
Arkansas vs. TCU
Rice vs. Cincinnati
Florida Atlantic vs. @Washington
@UTEP vs. Chattanooga
On the one side, I see one (C-USA) opponent going to a bowl game but no teams that spent any time in the rankings this season. On the other side, I see two current top 15 opponents, one a BCS conference champion, one a second place finisher in a better-than-some-BCS-conferences Mountain West. We often hear the "big schools" say: our conference schedule is so tough, we need to schedule some patsies to give our team a break. Well, it was only a matter of time before a situation like this came up and a "big school" got ousted by another big school that ponied up in the non-conference scheduling. Because OU manned up and played somebody out of conference, Texas will be sitting at home this weekend.
Texas did get screwed; they got royally screwed. Why? Arkansas, Rice, FAU, and UTEP. They screwed themselves: replace FAU with Tulsa, Central Michigan, BYU, Navy, Fresno State, etc. and they would have the inside track to the title game. Cowboy up, Horns, the Sooners did, that's why they are where you want to be. Head to the store, pick up a little cheese with that whine of yours, and talk to your AD about scheduling teams outside of the two worst conferences in America. Rice, UTEP, FAU? Looks like a great baseball schedule. You want to play for the national championship in big-time college football, play some football schools. Your rivals, the guys you beat on a neutral field, had some cajonas and, as a result, they are playing in the big game. Or, if you plan on continuing to schedule patsies, at least work on your double-coverage on the sideline with 2 seconds left in the game. If you could do that, you'd be 12-0 and there'd be no discussion. Two words: Boomer. Sooner.
So, OU is going to the Big 12 Championship Game. Texas got screwed? Who did it, and why did it happen? First off, let's look at the human polls. What exactly are they trying to measure? Well, you ask all the pollsters and each one will have a different opinion. Are they trying to measure who has had the best season? Maybe. Are they trying to measure who is the best team right now? Maybe. Well, who had the better season as a whole: probably Oklahoma. Who is the better team right now: probably Oklahoma. Who won head to head: Texas, definitely. Well, whatever they are trying to measure, the human polls are neck and neck, with a slight lead to Texas actually.
Secondly, let's look at the computers, since they are what put OU ahead of UT. Compare these two schedules:
Arkansas vs. TCU
Rice vs. Cincinnati
Florida Atlantic vs. @Washington
@UTEP vs. Chattanooga
On the one side, I see one (C-USA) opponent going to a bowl game but no teams that spent any time in the rankings this season. On the other side, I see two current top 15 opponents, one a BCS conference champion, one a second place finisher in a better-than-some-BCS-conferences Mountain West. We often hear the "big schools" say: our conference schedule is so tough, we need to schedule some patsies to give our team a break. Well, it was only a matter of time before a situation like this came up and a "big school" got ousted by another big school that ponied up in the non-conference scheduling. Because OU manned up and played somebody out of conference, Texas will be sitting at home this weekend.
Texas did get screwed; they got royally screwed. Why? Arkansas, Rice, FAU, and UTEP. They screwed themselves: replace FAU with Tulsa, Central Michigan, BYU, Navy, Fresno State, etc. and they would have the inside track to the title game. Cowboy up, Horns, the Sooners did, that's why they are where you want to be. Head to the store, pick up a little cheese with that whine of yours, and talk to your AD about scheduling teams outside of the two worst conferences in America. Rice, UTEP, FAU? Looks like a great baseball schedule. You want to play for the national championship in big-time college football, play some football schools. Your rivals, the guys you beat on a neutral field, had some cajonas and, as a result, they are playing in the big game. Or, if you plan on continuing to schedule patsies, at least work on your double-coverage on the sideline with 2 seconds left in the game. If you could do that, you'd be 12-0 and there'd be no discussion. Two words: Boomer. Sooner.
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
New Rankings
Well, here they are. The MWC and the Big 10 are done, so they won't be moving very much, only upward.
Any challengers? Also, I am working on my answer to the BCS mess, i.e. my solution to the problem, starting next year, but it will take some work.
| Rank | Team | Record | Result |
| 1 | Florida | 10-1 | 1 |
| 2 | Texas | 10-1 | 2 |
| 3 | USC | 9-1 | 3 |
| 4 | Oklahoma | 10-1 | 4 |
| 5 | Alabama | 11-0 | 5 |
| 6 | Penn State | 11-1 | 20 |
| 7 | Ohio State | 10-2 | 7 |
| 8 | OK State | 9-2 | 9 |
| 9 | Georgia | 9-2 | 10 |
| 10 | Texas Tech | 10-1 | 6 |
| 11 | Boise State | 11-0 | 11 |
| 12 | Missouri | 9-2 | 12 |
| 13 | Cincinnati | 9-2 | 13 |
| 14 | Utah | 12-0 | 14 |
| 15 | Ball State | 11-0 | 22 |
| 16 | Georgia Tech | 8-3 | 35 |
| 17 | Nebraska | 7-4 | 17 |
| 18 | Florida State | 8-3 | 34 |
| 19 | Oregon State | 8-3 | 21 |
| 20 | Rice | 8-3 | 24 |
| 21 | W Michigan | 9-2 | 25 |
| 22 | TCU | 10-2 | 29 |
| 23 | South Carolina | 7-4 | 30 |
| 24 | Tulsa | 9-2 | 31 |
| 25 | BYU | 10-2 | 23 |
| 26 | Oregon | 8-3 | 32 |
| 27 | Northwestern | 9-3 | 33 |
| 28 | Michigan State | 9-3 | 8 |
| 29 | Pittsburgh | 7-3 | 15 |
| 30 | Boston College | 8-3 | 36 |
| 31 | Ole Miss | 7-4 | 38 |
| 32 | Virginia Tech | 7-4 | 39 |
| 33 | Buffalo | 7-4 | 40 |
| 34 | Iowa | 8-4 | 42 |
| 35 | West Virginia | 7-3 | 43 |
| 36 | Central Michigan | 8-3 | 18 |
| 37 | California | 7-4 | 44 |
| 38 | Houston | 7-4 | 45 |
| 39 | Navy | 6-4 | 48 |
| 40 | Louisiana Tech | 7-4 | 51 |
| 41 | Fresno State | 7-4 | 53 |
| 42 | Troy | 7-4 | 54 |
| 43 | Kansas | 6-5 | 55 |
| 44 | Kentucky | 6-5 | 56 |
| 45 | East Carolina | 7-4 | 57 |
| 46 | South Florida | 7-4 | 60 |
| 47 | Air Force | 8-4 | 41 |
| 48 | Maryland | 7-4 | 19 |
| 49 | Wisconsin | 7-5 | 49 |
| 50 | Miami | 7-4 | 16 |
| 51 | LSU | 7-4 | 26 |
| 52 | Connecticut | 7-4 | 28 |
| 53 | North Carolina | 7-4 | 27 |
| 54 | NIU | 6-5 | N/A |
| 55 | Rutgers | 6-5 | N/A |
| 56 | Clemson | 6-5 | N/A |
| 57 | Hawaii | 6-5 | N/A |
| 58 | Nevada | 6-5 | 50 |
| 59 | Arizona | 6-5 | 58 |
| 60 | Wake Forest | 6-5 | 47 |
| 61 | Minnesota | 7-5 | 52 |
| 62 | Vanderbilt | 6-5 | 37 |
| 63 | Notre Dame | 6-5 | 46 |
Any challengers? Also, I am working on my answer to the BCS mess, i.e. my solution to the problem, starting next year, but it will take some work.
Saturday, November 22, 2008
I have got to leave soon so these will be quick.
Ohio State over Michigan 38-17.
Wyoming over CSU 28-27.
Washington over Washington State in the most meaningful game of the day 38-35, I heard Rafe is going to be watching this one intently.
Cal over Stanford 27-17.
LSU over Ole Miss 35-27.
Boston College over Wake Forest 34-14.
TCU over Air Force 34-27.
Northwestern over Illinois 45-31.
Boise State over Nevada 45-28.
Iowa over Minnesota 27-21.
Big games:
Penn State over Michigan State 38-13
Arizona over Oregon State (USC breathes a sigh of relief) 28-27.
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati 35-28.
Florida State over Maryland 20-16.
Oklahoma over Texas Tech 49-44.
BYU vs. Utah:
One more piece of analysis, then my pick: after watching Utah all year and watching last season's game last night on the Mtn (thanks Mtn for providing me with all-access to all-things Mountain West, sorry you can't help Rafe out, but I'm good with you), I've determined why I think their offense struggles at times. As soon as they cross the 50, or get their 3rd first down of a drive, they run a trick play: if it works, they score, if it doesn't, they punt.
Utah always plays this rivalry game with more passion, which leads to mistakes early in the game. BYU plays even-keeled (as always) and they kind of get knocked back by Utah's passion and intensity. By the second half they usually both settle in: Utah cuts down on mistakes, and BYU gets a little more excited. BYU did show some passion last week in the second half, maybe that will carry over...
I am making my pick based on Whit vs. Bronco head-to-head b/c there is no way to predict which Utah offense shows up, or which BYU defense shows up, or if Utah's D will suffocate BYU's O like TCU, or if BYU's O will move the ball like they have in 10 games this year and as Utah has allowed a couple of times this season.
When BYU is a better team, they win CLOSE (or "on a miracle at the end" as my wife says). When the teams are even, Utah wins in OT. When Utah is better, well, this is the first year they have had the better team under these coaches, so there isn't history there. But you can imagine where this is headed. When the game is at Utah, there will be points scored, that seems to be the trend.
I want to say BYU brings their A game, but I think they bring their B+ game. I'd like to say Utah brings their C game, but I think they bring their A- team for half the game, and their B- for the other half. Unfortunately, that will probably be enough to win this one. I still hold out hope for BYU, and I still think they could easily win by 21, but they could also just as easily lose by 21. I don't think they can win another close game though. I'm predicting a 34-31 win for:
The University of Utah. As much as it pains me to say it, and I really hope I am wrong. Go Cougars. And Cougar fans: nothing good FOR BYU comes from Utah going to a BCS game. In 2006, did you have more respect for Hawaii and San Jose State b/c Boise State manned up on Oklahoma? No, but those were your 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the WAC. BYU doesn't get more respect because Utah goes BCS-ing. Did BYU outrecruit Utah after the 2004 season? No, Utah was able to get better recruits, i.e. this year's senior class, which is better than BYU's for the first time in several years. It doesn't help. Do not believe that the team that hates you more than they love their team going to a BCS game helps you. It helps Utah.
Ohio State over Michigan 38-17.
Wyoming over CSU 28-27.
Washington over Washington State in the most meaningful game of the day 38-35, I heard Rafe is going to be watching this one intently.
Cal over Stanford 27-17.
LSU over Ole Miss 35-27.
Boston College over Wake Forest 34-14.
TCU over Air Force 34-27.
Northwestern over Illinois 45-31.
Boise State over Nevada 45-28.
Iowa over Minnesota 27-21.
Big games:
Penn State over Michigan State 38-13
Arizona over Oregon State (USC breathes a sigh of relief) 28-27.
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati 35-28.
Florida State over Maryland 20-16.
Oklahoma over Texas Tech 49-44.
BYU vs. Utah:
One more piece of analysis, then my pick: after watching Utah all year and watching last season's game last night on the Mtn (thanks Mtn for providing me with all-access to all-things Mountain West, sorry you can't help Rafe out, but I'm good with you), I've determined why I think their offense struggles at times. As soon as they cross the 50, or get their 3rd first down of a drive, they run a trick play: if it works, they score, if it doesn't, they punt.
Utah always plays this rivalry game with more passion, which leads to mistakes early in the game. BYU plays even-keeled (as always) and they kind of get knocked back by Utah's passion and intensity. By the second half they usually both settle in: Utah cuts down on mistakes, and BYU gets a little more excited. BYU did show some passion last week in the second half, maybe that will carry over...
I am making my pick based on Whit vs. Bronco head-to-head b/c there is no way to predict which Utah offense shows up, or which BYU defense shows up, or if Utah's D will suffocate BYU's O like TCU, or if BYU's O will move the ball like they have in 10 games this year and as Utah has allowed a couple of times this season.
When BYU is a better team, they win CLOSE (or "on a miracle at the end" as my wife says). When the teams are even, Utah wins in OT. When Utah is better, well, this is the first year they have had the better team under these coaches, so there isn't history there. But you can imagine where this is headed. When the game is at Utah, there will be points scored, that seems to be the trend.
I want to say BYU brings their A game, but I think they bring their B+ game. I'd like to say Utah brings their C game, but I think they bring their A- team for half the game, and their B- for the other half. Unfortunately, that will probably be enough to win this one. I still hold out hope for BYU, and I still think they could easily win by 21, but they could also just as easily lose by 21. I don't think they can win another close game though. I'm predicting a 34-31 win for:
The University of Utah. As much as it pains me to say it, and I really hope I am wrong. Go Cougars. And Cougar fans: nothing good FOR BYU comes from Utah going to a BCS game. In 2006, did you have more respect for Hawaii and San Jose State b/c Boise State manned up on Oklahoma? No, but those were your 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the WAC. BYU doesn't get more respect because Utah goes BCS-ing. Did BYU outrecruit Utah after the 2004 season? No, Utah was able to get better recruits, i.e. this year's senior class, which is better than BYU's for the first time in several years. It doesn't help. Do not believe that the team that hates you more than they love their team going to a BCS game helps you. It helps Utah.
Thursday, November 20, 2008
BYU-Utah Teaser
Well, I thought I'd give you a glimpse at the matchups for Saturday's big game. First off, I'd like to thank Pat Forde for the great research he did on the "holy war" (I will never call it that again, there is nothing holy about this rivalry). And thanks for the advice to Max Hall, I sure hope he doesn't throw it to Deshawn Richard, considering the two will likely never be on the field at the same time, unless Max Hall comes out for kickoff return. The mop-up duty safety/special teams gunner and the conference player of the year QB don't face-off against each other too often. Maybe due more research than looking at the stat sheet next time...
Secondly, the vitriol of this rivalry is a bit ridiculous. Both sides think the other side is jealous of their success. Utah, how many 10-win seasons have you had in the last 30 years? Congrats on having two this decade, what an accomplishment. Did you know that until a few weeks ago you hadn't been ranked in 3 full seasons and part of a 4th where BYU has been ranked this entire season and half of the previous two seasons (you know, those seasons you spent hoping to show up in others receiving votes)? BYU, you haven't finished ranked in the top 10 in 12 years, and haven't played in a meaningful (big money) bowl since then, and that streak could extend to 13 if you don't win this weekend. Utah may finish ranked there for the third time since 1994 and play in a second big money bowl in 4 years. Both of you are pretty good non-BCS schools. Neither one of you knocks the socks off the other, and don't bring religion into it. Over half of the U's student population is LDS, so if you hate BYU for being Mormon, you kind of have to hate yourselves. And there are a lot of active church-goers who attend the U, so BYU, don't be hating on the U for being apostate or not good enough to get in to BYU.
Thirdly, I think the similarities of these two teams are a bit uncanny. So here's a look into Mo's mind as the big one approaches.
BYU's D vs. Utah's O: both sides have shown brilliance, and total ineptitude at times during the season. First let's look at coaches: Jaime Hill/Bronco Mendenhall vs. Andy Ludwig. It's a good thing Utah has a lot of talent on offense because if it came down to coaching, I wouldn't like their chances (on a side note, maybe Utah will get lucky and Ludwig will be smart and take a job offer somewhere, that's the only chance they have of building a decent O next year). BYU's D is designed to force teams to drive down the field, and is supposed to prevent big plays. Utah's O is designed to make big plays, but rarely shows the patience to nickel and dime their way down the field. BYU's D hasn't been good at stopping trick plays. Utah's trick play success rate has been so-so, granted every third or fourth play could be considered a "trick play" so let's just call it a "trick offense." BYU has stepped up and made big plays in the red zone in the last two minutes of the game. Utah has choked in the red zone consistently in the first 58 minutes of the game. Utah's O has a little more potential than BYU's D, but has a little less consistency. Against good offenses, BYU has given up yards, and in some cases, points, though they are holding opponents to less than 20 per game. Against good defenses, Utah seems to like scoring 13 points. I'm not going to call BYU's D good, but I'm also not willing to call Utah's O good. Both are "good at times." Which one shows up for each team on Saturday?
BYU's O vs. Utah's D: again, both sides have looked great at times but not stellar at others. The coaches: Gary Anderson vs. Robert Anae, wow, those are some good coaches on both sides, but I'd rather have Gary Anderson, or better yet, I don't need him on my side, let's just hope he takes a coaching job in another conference after the season (or before Saturday...). BYU has gained yards and put up points in bunches, but has had some struggles in the red zone with turnovers. Utah's D has given up yards in bunches, but has been stout in the red zone in forcing field goal attempts (and misses, thankfully). Max Hall makes some sensational throws, and forces some stuff into tight/double coverage. Utah's defense isn't great at defending the pass, but is great at getting pressure on the quarterback. Utah's run defense has been fairly stout (though the stats are somewhat skewed because of all of the sacks, which count against rush yards in college-which is dumb). BYU's rush offense hasn't really been up to par throughout the season. They have had some good games, and they've had some bad games. They seem to live up to challenges because the good games are against good run defenses and the bad games are against bad run defenses. Go figure. Utah has played fundamentally sound during the season. BYU is a pretty basic offense, so being fundamentally sound isn't as crucial, but BYU has shown the ability to mix in a unique set every now and again (usually resulting in a holding penalty on Michael Reed negating the play). Utah's biggest weakness on D (besides 4th and 18 defense): shotgun rushes off-tackle with a lead blocker where those rush ends USED to be. BYU's favorite/only running play: shotgun off-tackle with Fui leading the way. BYU's biggest weakness on O: using the play-action pass before establishing the running game. Utah's biggest strength on D: not falling for the play-action pass when the running game isn't a threat.
The way I see it: strength on strength, weakness on weakness, consistency on consisency, inconsistency on inconsistency. If Utah's offense comes out with a bang, they could blow it open early. If Utah's defense pressures Hall, they could shut him down, like TCU did. If BYU's defense plays fundamentally sound and forces Utah to patiently march downfield, they could hold Utah to a lot of field goals/punts inside the 10-yard line. If BYU's offense can handle the pressure and stick with the running game, they could be unstoppable.
Either team could win big. Or it could come down to Mitch Payne/Louie Sakoda winning or losing it in the closing minutes. Which will it be?
This is a "teaser," i.e. you aren't getting my answer yet.
Rafe, was that good enough unbiased analysis for you?
Secondly, the vitriol of this rivalry is a bit ridiculous. Both sides think the other side is jealous of their success. Utah, how many 10-win seasons have you had in the last 30 years? Congrats on having two this decade, what an accomplishment. Did you know that until a few weeks ago you hadn't been ranked in 3 full seasons and part of a 4th where BYU has been ranked this entire season and half of the previous two seasons (you know, those seasons you spent hoping to show up in others receiving votes)? BYU, you haven't finished ranked in the top 10 in 12 years, and haven't played in a meaningful (big money) bowl since then, and that streak could extend to 13 if you don't win this weekend. Utah may finish ranked there for the third time since 1994 and play in a second big money bowl in 4 years. Both of you are pretty good non-BCS schools. Neither one of you knocks the socks off the other, and don't bring religion into it. Over half of the U's student population is LDS, so if you hate BYU for being Mormon, you kind of have to hate yourselves. And there are a lot of active church-goers who attend the U, so BYU, don't be hating on the U for being apostate or not good enough to get in to BYU.
Thirdly, I think the similarities of these two teams are a bit uncanny. So here's a look into Mo's mind as the big one approaches.
BYU's D vs. Utah's O: both sides have shown brilliance, and total ineptitude at times during the season. First let's look at coaches: Jaime Hill/Bronco Mendenhall vs. Andy Ludwig. It's a good thing Utah has a lot of talent on offense because if it came down to coaching, I wouldn't like their chances (on a side note, maybe Utah will get lucky and Ludwig will be smart and take a job offer somewhere, that's the only chance they have of building a decent O next year). BYU's D is designed to force teams to drive down the field, and is supposed to prevent big plays. Utah's O is designed to make big plays, but rarely shows the patience to nickel and dime their way down the field. BYU's D hasn't been good at stopping trick plays. Utah's trick play success rate has been so-so, granted every third or fourth play could be considered a "trick play" so let's just call it a "trick offense." BYU has stepped up and made big plays in the red zone in the last two minutes of the game. Utah has choked in the red zone consistently in the first 58 minutes of the game. Utah's O has a little more potential than BYU's D, but has a little less consistency. Against good offenses, BYU has given up yards, and in some cases, points, though they are holding opponents to less than 20 per game. Against good defenses, Utah seems to like scoring 13 points. I'm not going to call BYU's D good, but I'm also not willing to call Utah's O good. Both are "good at times." Which one shows up for each team on Saturday?
BYU's O vs. Utah's D: again, both sides have looked great at times but not stellar at others. The coaches: Gary Anderson vs. Robert Anae, wow, those are some good coaches on both sides, but I'd rather have Gary Anderson, or better yet, I don't need him on my side, let's just hope he takes a coaching job in another conference after the season (or before Saturday...). BYU has gained yards and put up points in bunches, but has had some struggles in the red zone with turnovers. Utah's D has given up yards in bunches, but has been stout in the red zone in forcing field goal attempts (and misses, thankfully). Max Hall makes some sensational throws, and forces some stuff into tight/double coverage. Utah's defense isn't great at defending the pass, but is great at getting pressure on the quarterback. Utah's run defense has been fairly stout (though the stats are somewhat skewed because of all of the sacks, which count against rush yards in college-which is dumb). BYU's rush offense hasn't really been up to par throughout the season. They have had some good games, and they've had some bad games. They seem to live up to challenges because the good games are against good run defenses and the bad games are against bad run defenses. Go figure. Utah has played fundamentally sound during the season. BYU is a pretty basic offense, so being fundamentally sound isn't as crucial, but BYU has shown the ability to mix in a unique set every now and again (usually resulting in a holding penalty on Michael Reed negating the play). Utah's biggest weakness on D (besides 4th and 18 defense): shotgun rushes off-tackle with a lead blocker where those rush ends USED to be. BYU's favorite/only running play: shotgun off-tackle with Fui leading the way. BYU's biggest weakness on O: using the play-action pass before establishing the running game. Utah's biggest strength on D: not falling for the play-action pass when the running game isn't a threat.
The way I see it: strength on strength, weakness on weakness, consistency on consisency, inconsistency on inconsistency. If Utah's offense comes out with a bang, they could blow it open early. If Utah's defense pressures Hall, they could shut him down, like TCU did. If BYU's defense plays fundamentally sound and forces Utah to patiently march downfield, they could hold Utah to a lot of field goals/punts inside the 10-yard line. If BYU's offense can handle the pressure and stick with the running game, they could be unstoppable.
Either team could win big. Or it could come down to Mitch Payne/Louie Sakoda winning or losing it in the closing minutes. Which will it be?
This is a "teaser," i.e. you aren't getting my answer yet.
Rafe, was that good enough unbiased analysis for you?
Mo Knows Rankings, Strength of Schedule added
Sorry it's taken so long for me to get this up this week, but adding the strength of schedule element takes time. There was some shake-up in the top 10. Florida jumped OU and Texas Tech, who both dropped (Tech a little more significantly). Utah's and Boise State's weak schedules pulled them out of the top 10.
Well, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rice look a little high, but besides that I'd say it looks pretty good. Miami was high as well, but they took care of that themselves...
| Rank | Team |
| 1 | Florida |
| 2 | Texas |
| 3 | USC |
| 4 | Oklahoma |
| 5 | Alabama |
| 6 | Texas Tech |
| 7 | Ohio State |
| 8 | Michigan State |
| 9 | OK State |
| 10 | Georgia |
| 11 | Boise State |
| 12 | Missouri |
| 13 | Cincinnati |
| 14 | Utah |
| 15 | Pittsburgh |
| 16 | Miami |
| 17 | Nebraska |
| 18 | Central Michigan |
| 19 | Maryland |
| 20 | Penn State |
| 21 | Oregon State |
| 22 | Ball State |
| 23 | BYU |
| 24 | Rice |
| 25 | Western Michigan |
| 26 | LSU |
| 27 | North Carolina |
| 28 | Connecticut |
| 29 | TCU |
| 30 | South Carolina |
| 31 | Tulsa |
| 32 | Oregon |
| 33 | Northwestern |
| 34 | Florida State |
| 35 | Georgia Tech |
| 36 | Boston College |
| 37 | Vanderbilt |
| 38 | Ole Miss |
| 39 | Va Tech |
| 40 | Buffalo |
| 41 | Air Force |
| 42 | Iowa |
| 43 | West Virginia |
| 44 | Cal |
| 45 | Houston |
| 46 | Notre Dame |
| 47 | Wake Forest |
| 48 | Navy |
| 49 | Wisconsin |
| 50 | Nevada |
| 51 | La Tech |
| 52 | Minnesota |
| 53 | Fresno State |
| 54 | Troy |
| 55 | Kansas |
| 56 | Kentucky |
| 57 | ECU |
| 58 | Arizona |
| 59 | SJSU |
| 60 | South Florida |
Well, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rice look a little high, but besides that I'd say it looks pretty good. Miami was high as well, but they took care of that themselves...
Monday, November 17, 2008
Keeping Mo Honest
Michigan beats Northwestern 35-20, actual: Northwestern wins 21-14. Man Michigan sucks.
Clemson beats Duke 38-17, actual: Clemson wins 31-7. Too bad Clemson didn't play like this earlier in the year.
Ohio State beats Illinois 45-17, actual: OSU wins 30-20. Beanie Wells had 143 yards rushing.
Purdue beats Iowa 24-20, actual: Iowa wins 22-17. Hey, no one else thought Purdue had a chance, give me some credit.
Maryland beats UNC 31-24, actual: Maryland wins 17-15. How do you even score 15 points?
Oregon State beats California 34-28, actual: 34-21.
Wisconsin over Minnesota 27-13, actual: 35-32.
Boise State over Idaho 49-13, actual: 45-10.
Oregon over Arizona 35-17, actual: 55-45.
Alabama over Mississippi State 13-6, actual: 32-7.
LSU over Troy 28-21, actual: 40-31. The spread was 18, I was closer than the experts...
Tulsa over Houston, no need to go over this one...
Utah over SDSU 37-10, actual: 63-14.
Navy beats Notre Dame 28-21, actual: Notre Dame wins 27-21.
Auburn upsets Georgia 28-24, actual: Georgia 17-13.
Florida over South Carolina 28-14, actual: 56-6.
Boston College over Florida State 20-17, actual: 27-17.
BYU over Air Force 38-20, actual: 38-24.
Well, that's it. I think I did alright again...
Clemson beats Duke 38-17, actual: Clemson wins 31-7. Too bad Clemson didn't play like this earlier in the year.
Ohio State beats Illinois 45-17, actual: OSU wins 30-20. Beanie Wells had 143 yards rushing.
Purdue beats Iowa 24-20, actual: Iowa wins 22-17. Hey, no one else thought Purdue had a chance, give me some credit.
Maryland beats UNC 31-24, actual: Maryland wins 17-15. How do you even score 15 points?
Oregon State beats California 34-28, actual: 34-21.
Wisconsin over Minnesota 27-13, actual: 35-32.
Boise State over Idaho 49-13, actual: 45-10.
Oregon over Arizona 35-17, actual: 55-45.
Alabama over Mississippi State 13-6, actual: 32-7.
LSU over Troy 28-21, actual: 40-31. The spread was 18, I was closer than the experts...
Tulsa over Houston, no need to go over this one...
Utah over SDSU 37-10, actual: 63-14.
Navy beats Notre Dame 28-21, actual: Notre Dame wins 27-21.
Auburn upsets Georgia 28-24, actual: Georgia 17-13.
Florida over South Carolina 28-14, actual: 56-6.
Boston College over Florida State 20-17, actual: 27-17.
BYU over Air Force 38-20, actual: 38-24.
Well, that's it. I think I did alright again...
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Weekend picks
Well, maybe I ought to give up on this blog. No one commented on my tribute to King Louie...
Oh well, I'll keep writing, even if it's only for my sake...
So far I've only missed on one game this week. I thought Louisville would pull it out at home, but I overestimated them, or underestimated Cincinnati.
Michigan beats Northwestern 35-20. Maize and Blue trumps Purple every time. It's amazing Northwestern can even get enough college age men to put on purple unis each week.
Clemson beats Duke 38-17. Duke was a nice story. Clemson was a bad story. The cosmos realigns this week.
Ohio State destroys Illinois 45-17. The Juice may get lose a little bit, but nobody stops the Beanie, baby.
Purdue beats Iowa 24-20. Oops. Letdown City.
Maryland beats North Carolina 31-24. Everything about this game cries North Carolina big. These are the games Maryland wins (of course they lose all the ones that cry Maryland big...).
Oregon State over California 34-28. Oregon State may just run the table. How funny would that be, USC?
Sconsin drops Minnesota 27-13. Can you hear that? It's Herbie and Corso trying to sneak off the Minnesota bandwagon they jumped on before they lost to Northwestern and Michigan.
Boise State dumps Idaho 49-13. The battle for top spud. You can bet on the Broncos for the next 20 years.
Oregon beat Zona 35-17. Oregon mixes in a little defense on senior day at Autzen. See if that confuses them.
Bama over Sly Croom's boys 13-6. I still don't like Bama's offense, especially against the Gators on December 6th.
LSU over Troy 28-21. Closer than the experts think, oh wait, I'm supposed to be one of those experts. I love Lee Corso.
Tulsa over Houston 49-35. Who doesn't love a shootout? SEC fans need not answer.
Utah over San Diego State 37-10. Nice tune-up for BYU next week. I'd pick them to score more but they will save the whole bag of tricks for the Cougars.
Bigger games:
Navy beats Notre Dame! 28-21. Force a couple of turnovers (isn't too hard against the Irish) and hang on to the ball for 40 minutes and this one is yours, Middies.
Auburn upsets Georgia! 28-24. Auburn has no offense? No problem, it's only Georgia's defense. You can score 4 times against them, everybody's doing it.
Florida over South Carolina 28-14. No upset pick here. Urban Meyer lose twice at home? Not with the National Championship on the line. South Carolina will hold Florida down, but you can only do it for so long.
Boston College upsets Florida State! 20-17. Are there really any upsets in the ACC this year? Florida State's offense wasn't that good before they suspended FIVE wide receivers for this game, I can't imagine it will improve. Then again, the Seminoles are used to having the kind of athletes you have to suspend once or twice a season...
Air Force does not upset BYU, 38-20. BYU may be "the most overrated 17th-ranked team in the history of college football" but they are still much better than Air Force, the most overachieving team in college football. Air Force is the one team on BYU's schedule that they have more speed than. If BYU does not turn the ball over, it should roll. I will be at this game, so BYU better not let me down. Since I have been married I have been to 13 BYU wins, and no BYU losses. Since Bronco Mendenhall has been at BYU as DC and HC, BYU hasn't had a problem with the option. Almost everybody in the front seven has seen the option at least one or two times in their careers and done well, it's the back 4 I worry about. While Air Force doesn't run the option as much as it has in years past, I don't see them "exploding" on offense, which is what they will need to knock off the two-time reigning conference champions.
Oh well, I'll keep writing, even if it's only for my sake...
So far I've only missed on one game this week. I thought Louisville would pull it out at home, but I overestimated them, or underestimated Cincinnati.
Michigan beats Northwestern 35-20. Maize and Blue trumps Purple every time. It's amazing Northwestern can even get enough college age men to put on purple unis each week.
Clemson beats Duke 38-17. Duke was a nice story. Clemson was a bad story. The cosmos realigns this week.
Ohio State destroys Illinois 45-17. The Juice may get lose a little bit, but nobody stops the Beanie, baby.
Purdue beats Iowa 24-20. Oops. Letdown City.
Maryland beats North Carolina 31-24. Everything about this game cries North Carolina big. These are the games Maryland wins (of course they lose all the ones that cry Maryland big...).
Oregon State over California 34-28. Oregon State may just run the table. How funny would that be, USC?
Sconsin drops Minnesota 27-13. Can you hear that? It's Herbie and Corso trying to sneak off the Minnesota bandwagon they jumped on before they lost to Northwestern and Michigan.
Boise State dumps Idaho 49-13. The battle for top spud. You can bet on the Broncos for the next 20 years.
Oregon beat Zona 35-17. Oregon mixes in a little defense on senior day at Autzen. See if that confuses them.
Bama over Sly Croom's boys 13-6. I still don't like Bama's offense, especially against the Gators on December 6th.
LSU over Troy 28-21. Closer than the experts think, oh wait, I'm supposed to be one of those experts. I love Lee Corso.
Tulsa over Houston 49-35. Who doesn't love a shootout? SEC fans need not answer.
Utah over San Diego State 37-10. Nice tune-up for BYU next week. I'd pick them to score more but they will save the whole bag of tricks for the Cougars.
Bigger games:
Navy beats Notre Dame! 28-21. Force a couple of turnovers (isn't too hard against the Irish) and hang on to the ball for 40 minutes and this one is yours, Middies.
Auburn upsets Georgia! 28-24. Auburn has no offense? No problem, it's only Georgia's defense. You can score 4 times against them, everybody's doing it.
Florida over South Carolina 28-14. No upset pick here. Urban Meyer lose twice at home? Not with the National Championship on the line. South Carolina will hold Florida down, but you can only do it for so long.
Boston College upsets Florida State! 20-17. Are there really any upsets in the ACC this year? Florida State's offense wasn't that good before they suspended FIVE wide receivers for this game, I can't imagine it will improve. Then again, the Seminoles are used to having the kind of athletes you have to suspend once or twice a season...
Air Force does not upset BYU, 38-20. BYU may be "the most overrated 17th-ranked team in the history of college football" but they are still much better than Air Force, the most overachieving team in college football. Air Force is the one team on BYU's schedule that they have more speed than. If BYU does not turn the ball over, it should roll. I will be at this game, so BYU better not let me down. Since I have been married I have been to 13 BYU wins, and no BYU losses. Since Bronco Mendenhall has been at BYU as DC and HC, BYU hasn't had a problem with the option. Almost everybody in the front seven has seen the option at least one or two times in their careers and done well, it's the back 4 I worry about. While Air Force doesn't run the option as much as it has in years past, I don't see them "exploding" on offense, which is what they will need to knock off the two-time reigning conference champions.
Thursday, November 13, 2008
A Tribute to King Louie
There have been a lot of good kickers through the years in college football. In my years of following the sport, however, I have never seen any kicker receive the pub and notoriety of Louie Sakoda. Time and time again you hear, in reference to King Louie, that he is the MVP of the Utah team. I have often asked myself: what makes a kicker/punter the MVP of a team?
Certainly, he is one of the best kickers in the country. He's perfect inside 40 yards, and near perfect over 40 yards (80%). However, he's only 8th in field goal percentage in the country, and he's tied for 4th in field goal makes.
He is a pretty awesome punter. He does have a knack for preventing returns (less than 20% of his punts are returned). He can also down it inside the 20 with the best of them: 43% of his punts end up inside the 20. In "pooch" attempts, he only puts a cool 28% into the end zone, and only one of those has been downed outside the 20. But his average punt and his net average rank him in the 30's in the country. On a side note, his net average is nearly identical to what mine was as a sophomore in high school (about 35 for me compared to 36.8 for him).
So, perhaps it is the fact that he does both pretty stinking well. I'm not sure that's it either, because there have been guys before him to do both well, as All-Americans and Groza/Guy Award winners. But none of them have been MVP's of top-10 teams.
So what is it that separates Sakoda from the rest? I believe the thing that makes Louie Sakoda the MVP of the undefeated Utes is: Utah's offense. If they didn't struggle so much between the 40's, he wouldn't have the opportunity to drop it inside the 20 2.9 times per game. If they didn't have so many problems scoring touchdowns in the red zone, he wouldn't be kicking 1.1 red zone field goals a game, and 2.1 field goals per game.
In short, Louie Sakoda is the MVP of the 7th-ranked and undefeated Utah Utes because Brian Johnson and Matt Asiata are not. Louie Sakoda is the big man on campus because Andy Ludwig is the little man in the press box.
So hats off to you, King Louie: you should take your extremely helpful supporting cast out to dinner. If it weren't for them, you'd be just another All-American candidate and Lou Groza/Ray Guy semi-finalist, but you couldn't possibly be the MVP of a top-10 team.
Certainly, he is one of the best kickers in the country. He's perfect inside 40 yards, and near perfect over 40 yards (80%). However, he's only 8th in field goal percentage in the country, and he's tied for 4th in field goal makes.
He is a pretty awesome punter. He does have a knack for preventing returns (less than 20% of his punts are returned). He can also down it inside the 20 with the best of them: 43% of his punts end up inside the 20. In "pooch" attempts, he only puts a cool 28% into the end zone, and only one of those has been downed outside the 20. But his average punt and his net average rank him in the 30's in the country. On a side note, his net average is nearly identical to what mine was as a sophomore in high school (about 35 for me compared to 36.8 for him).
So, perhaps it is the fact that he does both pretty stinking well. I'm not sure that's it either, because there have been guys before him to do both well, as All-Americans and Groza/Guy Award winners. But none of them have been MVP's of top-10 teams.
So what is it that separates Sakoda from the rest? I believe the thing that makes Louie Sakoda the MVP of the undefeated Utes is: Utah's offense. If they didn't struggle so much between the 40's, he wouldn't have the opportunity to drop it inside the 20 2.9 times per game. If they didn't have so many problems scoring touchdowns in the red zone, he wouldn't be kicking 1.1 red zone field goals a game, and 2.1 field goals per game.
In short, Louie Sakoda is the MVP of the 7th-ranked and undefeated Utah Utes because Brian Johnson and Matt Asiata are not. Louie Sakoda is the big man on campus because Andy Ludwig is the little man in the press box.
So hats off to you, King Louie: you should take your extremely helpful supporting cast out to dinner. If it weren't for them, you'd be just another All-American candidate and Lou Groza/Ray Guy semi-finalist, but you couldn't possibly be the MVP of a top-10 team.
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Keeping Mo Honest
Here's a little schpiel on last week's picks:
My pick: Texas over Baylor 45-24, actual: 45-21
Western Michigan over Illinois 27-24, actual: 23-17
Boise State over Utah State 45-13, actual: 49-14
At this point we should just quit while we're ahead.
Penn State over Iowa 20-10, actual: Iowa over Penn State 24-23
Oklahoma over Texas A&M 56-27, actual: 66-28
Oregon over Stanford 31-17, actual: 35-28
UCLA over Oregon State 27-24, actual: Oregon State over UCLA 34-6
Air Force over Colorado State 27-24 (I really liked that score this week), actual: 38-17
West Virginia over Cincinnati 38-35, actual: Cincinnati over WVU 26-23 in OT
Boston College over ND 34-24, actual: 17-0
Ohio State over Northwestern 35-27, actual: 45-10
Georgia Tech over North Carolina, 24-13, actual: North Carolina over Georgia Tech 28-7
BYU over San Diego State 56-24, actual: 41-12
LSU over Alabama 24-21, actual: Bama 27, LSU 21 (I felt good when this went to OT 21-all)
Texas Tech over OK State 34-27, actual: 56-20
Not too bad.
My pick: Texas over Baylor 45-24, actual: 45-21
Western Michigan over Illinois 27-24, actual: 23-17
Boise State over Utah State 45-13, actual: 49-14
At this point we should just quit while we're ahead.
Penn State over Iowa 20-10, actual: Iowa over Penn State 24-23
Oklahoma over Texas A&M 56-27, actual: 66-28
Oregon over Stanford 31-17, actual: 35-28
UCLA over Oregon State 27-24, actual: Oregon State over UCLA 34-6
Air Force over Colorado State 27-24 (I really liked that score this week), actual: 38-17
West Virginia over Cincinnati 38-35, actual: Cincinnati over WVU 26-23 in OT
Boston College over ND 34-24, actual: 17-0
Ohio State over Northwestern 35-27, actual: 45-10
Georgia Tech over North Carolina, 24-13, actual: North Carolina over Georgia Tech 28-7
BYU over San Diego State 56-24, actual: 41-12
LSU over Alabama 24-21, actual: Bama 27, LSU 21 (I felt good when this went to OT 21-all)
Texas Tech over OK State 34-27, actual: 56-20
Not too bad.
Monday, November 10, 2008
The Mo Knows Rankings
Well, here are this week's batch of rankings. I plan on having a couple of articles up later this week. Without further ado:
Any thoughts?
| Rank | Team | Previous | Record |
| 1 | Texas Tech | 1 | 10-0 |
| 2 | Oklahoma | 2 | 9-1 |
| 3 | Florida | 4 | 8-1 |
| 4 | OK State | 3 | 8-2 |
| 5 | Alabama | 5 | 10-0 |
| 6 | USC | 6 | 8-1 |
| 7 | Boise State | 7 | 9-0 |
| 8 | Utah | 16 | 10-0 |
| 9 | North Carolina | 9 | 7-2 |
| 10 | Missouri | 10 | 8-2 |
| 11 | Texas | 11 | 9-1 |
| 12 | Ohio State | 12 | 8-2 |
| 13 | Michigan State | 14 | 9-2 |
| 14 | Georgia | 15 | 8-2 |
| 15 | Ball State | 17 | 9-0 |
| 16 | Air Force | 19 | 8-2 |
| 17 | Central Michigan | 20 | 7-2 |
| 18 | BYU | 21 | 9-1 |
| 19 | Tulsa | 22 | 8-1 |
| 20 | Penn State | 8 | 9-1 |
| 21 | Western Michigan | 28 | 8-2 |
| 22 | Florida State | 29 | 7-2 |
| 23 | Cincinnati | 33 | 7-2 |
| 24 | California | 18 | 6-3 |
| 25 | Miami | 34 | 6-3 |
| 26 | Pittsburgh | 35 | 7-2 |
| 27 | TCU | 13 | 9-2 |
| 28 | Navy | 37 | 6-3 |
| 29 | Arizona | 38 | 6-3 |
| 30 | ECU | 39 | 6-3 |
| 31 | Oregon State | 40 | 6-3 |
| 32 | LSU | 27 | 6-3 |
| 33 | South Carolina | 41 | 7-3 |
| 34 | Nebraska | 42 | 6-4 |
| 35 | Wake Forest | 43 | 6-3 |
| 36 | Northwestern | 24 | 7-3 |
| 37 | Virginia Tech | 44 | 6-3 |
| 38 | Rice | 45 | 7-3 |
| 39 | Oregon | 49 | 7-3 |
| 40 | Connecticut | 50 | 6-3 |
| 41 | Georgia Tech | 32 | 7-3 |
| 42 | South Florida | 51 | 6-3 |
| 43 | Troy | 54 | 6-3 |
| 44 | Boston College | 56 | 6-3 |
| 45 | West Virginia | 23 | 6-3 |
| 46 | Maryland | 25 | 6-3 |
| 47 | Minnesota | 30 | 7-3 |
| 48 | Iowa | 61 | 6-4 |
| 49 | Ole Miss | 58 | 5-4 |
| 50 | Vanderbilt | 46 | 5-4 |
| 51 | Kentucky | 36 | 6-4 |
| 52 | La Tech | NR | 5-4 |
| 53 | Nevada | NR | 5-4 |
| 54 | Houston | NR | 5-4 |
| 55 | Buffalo | NR | 5-4 |
| 56 | Akron | NR | 5-4 |
| 57 | Northern Illinois | 48 | 5-4 |
| 58 | Louisville | 53 | 5-4 |
| 59 | Kansas | 26 | 6-4 |
| 60 | Notre Dame | 52 | 5-4 |
| 61 | SJSU | 31 | 6-4 |
| 62 | La-Lafayette | 47 | 5-4 |
| 63 | Fresno State | 55 | 5-4 |
Any thoughts?
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Weekend games
Let's see if I do any good this week (I'm 4 for 6 so far-TCU and Fresno State missed):
Texas over Baylor, 45-24. Baylor is much improved, but not THAT improved. Colt McCoy for 400+ and 5 TDs. After struggling two weeks in a row, Robert Griffin had a stellar performance against Missouri last week, the kid's only 18 years old! He'll move the ball and put some points on the board, but they'll fall well short today.
Western Michigan over Illinois, 27-24. Illinois should win this game but I have no confidence in their defense. Besides, they always disappoint me, so if I pick them to lose, they'll win and I'm OK with that.
Boise State over Utah State, 45-13. Utah State is moving in the right direction, unfortunately, Boise State had a huge head start down that path. I hope Utah State keeps Brent Guy! I hope Boise State can hang on to Chris Peterson with all of the high profile jobs opening up. Then again, he is so loved in Boise, it'd be tough to draw him away (i.e. it'd take a LOT of money).
Penn State over Iowa, 20-10. Iowa plays tough, but they don't have the horses to pull off the upset, even at home. This will be a defensive battle.
Oklahoma over Texas A&M, 56-27. Another replay game: they score in the 50's and give up in the 20's. This is getting old.
Clemson over Florida State, 23-20. A typical ACC game: two not very good teams, playing in a low scoring game decided by missed field goal late.
Oregon over Stanford (this one's for you Anna), 31-17. Oregon has a pretty good team. The defense is better than usual. The offense has more dogs, but they lack continuity at the quarterback position due to injuries (of course, if you have a spread option attack, you put the QB at risk). Stanford has a decent D, but look for Oregon to move the ball on them.
UCLA over Oregon State, 27-24. This is for Cougar fans who are lamenting their team's performance. The team you killed beats the team that Utah came from behind to beat.
Air Force over Colorado State, 27-24. Colorado State is improved, but they'll have to wait until next year for a bowl game.
West Virginia over Cincinnati, 38-35. I expect this one to be a close game, but I think the Mountaineers pull it out.
Boston College over Notre Dame, 34-24. In the battle of the Catholics, the snobs of the northeast beat the hard-working farm boys from the midwest. The Irish make a field goal, for the fourth game in a row. If that's not a moral victory for them, I don't know what is.
Big games:
Ohio State over Northwestern, 35-27. The difference in this game, Ohio State's "defense." They will slow down the Wildcats just enough to win this one. This is a different Buckeye team with Prior and Beanie. Prior still makes freshman mistakes, but, then again, he is still a freshman. He'll be OK in a wide open game. This is the Big Ten's best impression of the old-school WAC.
Georgia Tech over North Carolina, 24-13. North Carolina's offense hasn't been all that great this season to begin with, but combine that with a bye week and a great Bumblebee defense, and they may struggle to score. Georgia Tech's offense is starting to take better care of the ball and they can wear you down pretty quick. I see an "upset" in Chapel Hill.
BYU over SDSU, 56-24. I think the defense really has been getting better. They were only responsible for 21 of CSU's 42 points last week. On senior day at LaVell Edwards Stadium, the offense rolls. The defense gives up some big plays, but that's because SDSU isn't afraid to throw it 50 times and you're bound to give up big plays (especially if you are BYU's secondary).
LSU over Alabama, 24-21. I am not sold on Alabama's offense. Conventional wisdom says. Alabama wins, I'm sure Herbie and Corso will pick Bama, as well as all the experts. That's why I'm picking LSU. The defense shows up for once in a big game this season.
Texas Tech over OK State, 34-27. Can we really get a THIRD instant classic from the Big 12 this season? Well, maybe it won't be a classic, but I expect it to actually be a pretty good game. Tech may pull away and score in the 40's, but I don't see the Cowboys taking this one, no way, no how. Next year they've got a shot at the Big 12 South, but not this year. They'll lose to Tech and OU this season still.
Texas over Baylor, 45-24. Baylor is much improved, but not THAT improved. Colt McCoy for 400+ and 5 TDs. After struggling two weeks in a row, Robert Griffin had a stellar performance against Missouri last week, the kid's only 18 years old! He'll move the ball and put some points on the board, but they'll fall well short today.
Western Michigan over Illinois, 27-24. Illinois should win this game but I have no confidence in their defense. Besides, they always disappoint me, so if I pick them to lose, they'll win and I'm OK with that.
Boise State over Utah State, 45-13. Utah State is moving in the right direction, unfortunately, Boise State had a huge head start down that path. I hope Utah State keeps Brent Guy! I hope Boise State can hang on to Chris Peterson with all of the high profile jobs opening up. Then again, he is so loved in Boise, it'd be tough to draw him away (i.e. it'd take a LOT of money).
Penn State over Iowa, 20-10. Iowa plays tough, but they don't have the horses to pull off the upset, even at home. This will be a defensive battle.
Oklahoma over Texas A&M, 56-27. Another replay game: they score in the 50's and give up in the 20's. This is getting old.
Clemson over Florida State, 23-20. A typical ACC game: two not very good teams, playing in a low scoring game decided by missed field goal late.
Oregon over Stanford (this one's for you Anna), 31-17. Oregon has a pretty good team. The defense is better than usual. The offense has more dogs, but they lack continuity at the quarterback position due to injuries (of course, if you have a spread option attack, you put the QB at risk). Stanford has a decent D, but look for Oregon to move the ball on them.
UCLA over Oregon State, 27-24. This is for Cougar fans who are lamenting their team's performance. The team you killed beats the team that Utah came from behind to beat.
Air Force over Colorado State, 27-24. Colorado State is improved, but they'll have to wait until next year for a bowl game.
West Virginia over Cincinnati, 38-35. I expect this one to be a close game, but I think the Mountaineers pull it out.
Boston College over Notre Dame, 34-24. In the battle of the Catholics, the snobs of the northeast beat the hard-working farm boys from the midwest. The Irish make a field goal, for the fourth game in a row. If that's not a moral victory for them, I don't know what is.
Big games:
Ohio State over Northwestern, 35-27. The difference in this game, Ohio State's "defense." They will slow down the Wildcats just enough to win this one. This is a different Buckeye team with Prior and Beanie. Prior still makes freshman mistakes, but, then again, he is still a freshman. He'll be OK in a wide open game. This is the Big Ten's best impression of the old-school WAC.
Georgia Tech over North Carolina, 24-13. North Carolina's offense hasn't been all that great this season to begin with, but combine that with a bye week and a great Bumblebee defense, and they may struggle to score. Georgia Tech's offense is starting to take better care of the ball and they can wear you down pretty quick. I see an "upset" in Chapel Hill.
BYU over SDSU, 56-24. I think the defense really has been getting better. They were only responsible for 21 of CSU's 42 points last week. On senior day at LaVell Edwards Stadium, the offense rolls. The defense gives up some big plays, but that's because SDSU isn't afraid to throw it 50 times and you're bound to give up big plays (especially if you are BYU's secondary).
LSU over Alabama, 24-21. I am not sold on Alabama's offense. Conventional wisdom says. Alabama wins, I'm sure Herbie and Corso will pick Bama, as well as all the experts. That's why I'm picking LSU. The defense shows up for once in a big game this season.
Texas Tech over OK State, 34-27. Can we really get a THIRD instant classic from the Big 12 this season? Well, maybe it won't be a classic, but I expect it to actually be a pretty good game. Tech may pull away and score in the 40's, but I don't see the Cowboys taking this one, no way, no how. Next year they've got a shot at the Big 12 South, but not this year. They'll lose to Tech and OU this season still.
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