Moral Victories:
Nevada within 10 this time against Missouri.
Fresno State holding Cincinnati (or any I-A school) to less than 30 points. They played tougher at Cincy than Oregon State did last week at home against Cincy.
Southern Miss taking Kansas to the wire, before dropping a good game 35-28.
UTEP scoring on Texas.
Ohio playing Tennessee pretty close for most of the game before dropping it 34-23.
Ball State dropping 30 on an SEC defense.
Tulane, San Jose State, and Utah State getting their first wins of the season, at the expense of 3 I-AA teams, but you have to take your wins where you can get them.
Actual Victories:
TCU outshining Clemson in ACC country. This included stopping Clemson on two drives in the final 3 minutes, including a stop in the red zone.
Utah making Louisville pay for their mistakes and taking the game by 16, 30-14.
Houston taking advantage of Texas Tech's horrid defense to pull out another Big 12 victory, 29-28.
You Can't Do Thats:
UTEP giving up 47 points in the first half to Texas.
Tulane gave up 32 points to a I-AA team.
Ball State giving up 54 to an SEC offense.
Utah State giving up 34 to SUU. Alright enough of the teams that made it in You Can't Do Thats and Moral Victories...
Army lost by 3 TDs against Iowa State.
UAB losing by 37 to A&M. Not that A&M is bad or UAB is good (in any way), but that's A&M's biggest victory in 4 years...
Rice starting the season 0-4, when they were expected to compete with Houston in C-USA. This time a 19-point loss to Vanderbilt, at home, was the culprit. At least it was tied at half time.
Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
4 observations through 4 weeks
1: Defensive backs this year more than I ever remember are proving the old adage: DBs are just WRs that can't catch. It seems every game I watch I see at least one dropped interception. South Carolina last Thursday dropped 5 EASY picks in a game they had to cling on to in order to win. They get one or two of those: blowout. KU and Southern Mississippi both spoiled chances to swing the momentum with DBs showing off their stone hands. Texas Tech dropped a couple INTs in the second half that could have potentially put the game out of reach for Houston: instead they drop the ball, they drop the game. The only teams that I have not seen drop any potential picks are BYU's opponents, probably only because BYU QB Max Hall makes sure to hit the defense right in the numbers where even the biggest of stone hands can't drop it.
2: Officiating is horrific. What is pass interference on the D? What is pass interference on the O? And what about that whole uncatchable thing? All 3 of those are different in every game. Kansas WR Dezmon Briscoe lowers a shoulder into the LB covering his RB intentionally taking him: RB scores a TD, no flag. BYU TE runs near the CB covering a BYU WR without actually making contact: WR scores a TD, called back on offensive PI. Don't even get me started on some of the crazy defensive PIs I've seen called: particularly by Big Ten and Pac 10 refs. I guess they don't reward defensive players for making good plays in those two conferences. Also, what is helmet-to-helmet contact and when is it going to be called? Are we calling intentional grounding in the red zone or aren't we? More bad calls in crucial moments have swung games one way or another. I am not a believer that one or two bad calls decides a game: it's 60 minutes long. However, when two teams slug it out evenly for 58 minutes, I am opposed to officials injecting themselves into the outcome of the game. It makes me question the integrity of the outcome. Indiana's potential game-winning drive was ended abruptly when an official made a bad call that led to a Michigan interception. Then the replay goon didn't overturn it. The officiating must get more consistent, it must get better, and they need to do something about replay because it isn't doing its job in overturning bad calls. I know it's all about the almighty dollar, but maybe put an extra camera down near the end zones: they never seem to have good angles when it comes to the end zone. No matter what: officiating has been extremely inconsistent at best, and completely inadequate at worst.
3: Schizophrenia reigns supreme. Maybe inconsistency is a better word for it. How does a team that needs to block 2 field goals in the final 10 seconds at home against a I-AA team go to Happy Valley and knock off Penn State during a white out, in a monsoon, at night, by double digits? How does a team that gets manhandled at Boise, struggle past Purdue and Utah, and then win by 5+ TDs against Cal, who dropped 50 on a Ralph Friedgen-coached team? A BYU defense that holds Sam Bradford and OU to 10 points in a half then gives up 30 in the first half against Florida State, who only manages 19 for a home game against a I-AA team the week before and then only gets 7 at home against South Florida the week after? Washington holds USC to 13 points and then gives up 34 to Stanford? And Georgia's D: holds OK State to 24 on the road who usually gets 35+ plus before giving up 35+ to South Carolina who almost never scores 24. The only 3 teams that have looked pretty good in every game are Florida, Texas, and Boise State. There has been little consistency elsewhere. I am sure there will not be an undefeated national champion, maybe not even a 1-loss national champion. I am convinced there could also be a 1-loss BCS buster where usually you had to go undefeated to even get a sniff at it. I don't know what is causing the mass inconsistency but I do know the landscape of college football is changing. Through 4 weeks: 15 different teams have been ranked in the top 10 with teams 11-13 knocking on the door, waiting for a chance to expand that number. 3 teams are in the top 10 for the second time after suffering an early-season loss. 31 teams have been in the top 25, with 4 teams having been in twice. Florida State has been in twice and now is out for the second time. When has it been THIS crazy? I don't even know what a top 25 team looks like these days. Even the top 10 looks different from week to week. One day Miami looks like it belongs, another BYU, another Iowa. USC hasn't always looked like it belongs there, Virginia Tech certainly didn't look like top 10 material against Alabama, and LSU certainly didn't look like a top 5 team in two of its games this season, but there they are at #4. Good thing we have preseason rankings so no one can be confused about how good a team they beat or lost to. Even better thing that the rankings don't count for anything big, like who goes to the NC game or who goes to a Big 12 championship game or who plays in a BCS game. Oh wait.
4: The BCS is ruining college football. The big games don't have conference championship implications, or bragging rights or recruiting or rivalry implications. No, everything is looked at through the scope of: how will this impact the BCS national championship race or a BCS game? What happened to enjoying the atmosphere surrounding a Miami at Virginia Tech game, which helps shape the ACC race? Nope. The winner of this game keeps their National Championship hopes alive and certainly puts themselves in prime position to get a BCS bid. Houston beating Texas Tech and Oklahoma State isn't a statement about the artist formerly known as David knocking off the one formerly known as Goliath. Nope. It gives Houston an inside track, a chance to surpass Boise State, in the race for the automatic BCS bid for a non-BCS team. They have NINE GAMES LEFT (if they win their division and get to play in their conference championship game). BYU and Utah both lost to BCS teams, so their seasons are over, no BCS bid for them. Forget that they both have a chance to win a conference championship, they both play in a rivalry game or two still, and they both have 8 games left. BYU is still a top 25 team for crying out loud. But no, their seasons are over, they can't go undefeated and go to a BCS game so we will never talk about them again on Sportscenter or Gameday, they don't matter, unless they are playing TCU who still has a chance for a BCS game. Enjoy the game. There are great games involving great athletes, universites, and coaches being played every weekend that have no BCS implications whatsoever. Love your Saturdays without thinking about how it impacts a Rose Bowl invitation.
2: Officiating is horrific. What is pass interference on the D? What is pass interference on the O? And what about that whole uncatchable thing? All 3 of those are different in every game. Kansas WR Dezmon Briscoe lowers a shoulder into the LB covering his RB intentionally taking him: RB scores a TD, no flag. BYU TE runs near the CB covering a BYU WR without actually making contact: WR scores a TD, called back on offensive PI. Don't even get me started on some of the crazy defensive PIs I've seen called: particularly by Big Ten and Pac 10 refs. I guess they don't reward defensive players for making good plays in those two conferences. Also, what is helmet-to-helmet contact and when is it going to be called? Are we calling intentional grounding in the red zone or aren't we? More bad calls in crucial moments have swung games one way or another. I am not a believer that one or two bad calls decides a game: it's 60 minutes long. However, when two teams slug it out evenly for 58 minutes, I am opposed to officials injecting themselves into the outcome of the game. It makes me question the integrity of the outcome. Indiana's potential game-winning drive was ended abruptly when an official made a bad call that led to a Michigan interception. Then the replay goon didn't overturn it. The officiating must get more consistent, it must get better, and they need to do something about replay because it isn't doing its job in overturning bad calls. I know it's all about the almighty dollar, but maybe put an extra camera down near the end zones: they never seem to have good angles when it comes to the end zone. No matter what: officiating has been extremely inconsistent at best, and completely inadequate at worst.
3: Schizophrenia reigns supreme. Maybe inconsistency is a better word for it. How does a team that needs to block 2 field goals in the final 10 seconds at home against a I-AA team go to Happy Valley and knock off Penn State during a white out, in a monsoon, at night, by double digits? How does a team that gets manhandled at Boise, struggle past Purdue and Utah, and then win by 5+ TDs against Cal, who dropped 50 on a Ralph Friedgen-coached team? A BYU defense that holds Sam Bradford and OU to 10 points in a half then gives up 30 in the first half against Florida State, who only manages 19 for a home game against a I-AA team the week before and then only gets 7 at home against South Florida the week after? Washington holds USC to 13 points and then gives up 34 to Stanford? And Georgia's D: holds OK State to 24 on the road who usually gets 35+ plus before giving up 35+ to South Carolina who almost never scores 24. The only 3 teams that have looked pretty good in every game are Florida, Texas, and Boise State. There has been little consistency elsewhere. I am sure there will not be an undefeated national champion, maybe not even a 1-loss national champion. I am convinced there could also be a 1-loss BCS buster where usually you had to go undefeated to even get a sniff at it. I don't know what is causing the mass inconsistency but I do know the landscape of college football is changing. Through 4 weeks: 15 different teams have been ranked in the top 10 with teams 11-13 knocking on the door, waiting for a chance to expand that number. 3 teams are in the top 10 for the second time after suffering an early-season loss. 31 teams have been in the top 25, with 4 teams having been in twice. Florida State has been in twice and now is out for the second time. When has it been THIS crazy? I don't even know what a top 25 team looks like these days. Even the top 10 looks different from week to week. One day Miami looks like it belongs, another BYU, another Iowa. USC hasn't always looked like it belongs there, Virginia Tech certainly didn't look like top 10 material against Alabama, and LSU certainly didn't look like a top 5 team in two of its games this season, but there they are at #4. Good thing we have preseason rankings so no one can be confused about how good a team they beat or lost to. Even better thing that the rankings don't count for anything big, like who goes to the NC game or who goes to a Big 12 championship game or who plays in a BCS game. Oh wait.
4: The BCS is ruining college football. The big games don't have conference championship implications, or bragging rights or recruiting or rivalry implications. No, everything is looked at through the scope of: how will this impact the BCS national championship race or a BCS game? What happened to enjoying the atmosphere surrounding a Miami at Virginia Tech game, which helps shape the ACC race? Nope. The winner of this game keeps their National Championship hopes alive and certainly puts themselves in prime position to get a BCS bid. Houston beating Texas Tech and Oklahoma State isn't a statement about the artist formerly known as David knocking off the one formerly known as Goliath. Nope. It gives Houston an inside track, a chance to surpass Boise State, in the race for the automatic BCS bid for a non-BCS team. They have NINE GAMES LEFT (if they win their division and get to play in their conference championship game). BYU and Utah both lost to BCS teams, so their seasons are over, no BCS bid for them. Forget that they both have a chance to win a conference championship, they both play in a rivalry game or two still, and they both have 8 games left. BYU is still a top 25 team for crying out loud. But no, their seasons are over, they can't go undefeated and go to a BCS game so we will never talk about them again on Sportscenter or Gameday, they don't matter, unless they are playing TCU who still has a chance for a BCS game. Enjoy the game. There are great games involving great athletes, universites, and coaches being played every weekend that have no BCS implications whatsoever. Love your Saturdays without thinking about how it impacts a Rose Bowl invitation.
Monday, September 28, 2009
A few thoughts
First, I hate being right. Matt Asiata (Utah RB), who I said would not last until the BYU game because he would get hurt carrying the ball 35 times a game, suffered a season-ending ACL tear while jumping up to celebrate a TD against Louisville. Tough luck. Utah will adapt without him I'm sure, but he was the one who carried the offense this season when they were otherwise struggling.
Second, EVERYONE has called the race for BCS buster a 3-horse race. Obviously if Boise State, TCU, or Houston wins out, one of them will go to a BCS game. But if all of them lose one game, it would seem that Utah and BYU would both have a chance to get into the top 12 by winning out (especially because they would have to do so at the expense of the other and TCU). BYU currently has 9 spots to climb in the Coaches Poll with 8 games left (plus with games against OU Florida State, TCU, and Utah, their computer ranking will probably be higher than their actual ranking). Utah has a little further to go, but if they win at TCU and at BYU, while going 11-1, they will be a top 12 team. The odds are that both Boise State and Houston will both slip up somewhere since they both have to play 13 games this season. TCU has to win at BYU and beat Utah at home to stay undefeated. I doubt we will see any undefeated BCS buster, but I do believe we will have a non-BCS team qualify for an automatic bid.
Third, what a great weekend of college football it was. Several games decided in the last minute, a couple of top 10 upsets, several other top 25 teams losing. I expect similar results this weekend with 3 top 10 teams hitting the road against top 25 opponents. All in all, 12 top 25 teams are on the road this weekend. Only 3 games, however, pit ranked teams together this weekend.
Second, EVERYONE has called the race for BCS buster a 3-horse race. Obviously if Boise State, TCU, or Houston wins out, one of them will go to a BCS game. But if all of them lose one game, it would seem that Utah and BYU would both have a chance to get into the top 12 by winning out (especially because they would have to do so at the expense of the other and TCU). BYU currently has 9 spots to climb in the Coaches Poll with 8 games left (plus with games against OU Florida State, TCU, and Utah, their computer ranking will probably be higher than their actual ranking). Utah has a little further to go, but if they win at TCU and at BYU, while going 11-1, they will be a top 12 team. The odds are that both Boise State and Houston will both slip up somewhere since they both have to play 13 games this season. TCU has to win at BYU and beat Utah at home to stay undefeated. I doubt we will see any undefeated BCS buster, but I do believe we will have a non-BCS team qualify for an automatic bid.
Third, what a great weekend of college football it was. Several games decided in the last minute, a couple of top 10 upsets, several other top 25 teams losing. I expect similar results this weekend with 3 top 10 teams hitting the road against top 25 opponents. All in all, 12 top 25 teams are on the road this weekend. Only 3 games, however, pit ranked teams together this weekend.
Sunday, September 27, 2009
Saturday Recap
BYU-CSU: nice to know you can have a sub-par game and win 42-23. If BYU would have played like that last week, they would have lost by 50+ points. For how "close" the cornerback position was during fall camp, I think whomever Brian Logan beat out should have had a chance to play yesterday. His coverage wasn't poor, he always made the tackle right after the guy caught it (or right before the ball got there, leading to one of a half-dozen pass interference calls on him!). If he is the best BYU has, they are in a lot of trouble against Utah State, UNLV, TCU, and Utah, teams that can exploit the matchup there. Colorado State isn't even a passing team and picked on him ALL DAY LONG to the tune of 370 yards through the air. He made a few great plays, but for every one he made he gave up two or three. Time to give another CB a chance, at least split time.
Notre Dame-Purdue: another close game, another comeback by Notre Dame. The problem is: if they are a top flight team, they shouldn't be needing to come back against the likes of Purdue and Michigan State. Notre Dame is not back. Yet. A lot of their key guys are sophomores and juniors, so maybe next year we'll see something more. Consider me not impressed by their performances up to this point. That Nevada blowout looks less good with each passing week, as Nevada gets blown out by team after team.
Kansas-Southern Mississippi: I don't think Kansas is going to be a serious contender in the Big 12 North this year. I know Southern Miss is a good team. They have a solid rushing attack. They have a dual threat QB. They have a wideout or two that will be playing on Sundays. Their defense forces turnovers with regularity. Actually, you know what, Southern Miss could be a serious contender in the Big 12 North. Maybe the Jayhawks aren't that bad after all. Both teams moved the ball easily on each other. Kansas needs to learn to cover a few people in the secondary, they've still got to play OU, Texas, and Texas Tech, and I guarantee you they will bring it a lot harder than Southern Miss. My suggestion: use the nickel package. All game long. Oh, and protecting Reesing would be a good idea too. He was running for his life for most of the second half.
Texas Tech-Houston: 4th and goal from the 1-yard line. You score, you win. You kick a field goal, and, at worst, you go to overtime. I say: GO FOR IT! Mike Leach does and runs a quarterback sneak. ARE YOU KIDDING ME! A spread passing team runs a QB sneak on the goalline. At least spread them out and run a QB draw from the shotgun! Give them credit though, Houston did play tough. If you believe Tech is superior because they play in a BCS conference and Houston isn't really a top 25 team, then you can say the Cougars deserved to win the game, because they played evenly with a "much superior team." But the fact is: Houston is a good team but didn't reallly deserve to win this game, but Texas Tech deserved it even less. If Houston is a top 15 team, they didn't show it tonight (or maybe this is what a top 15 team looks like this year). The fourth quarter was sloppy for both teams. It was littered with poor coaching decisions, poor throws, and poor ball security. With no timeouts and 40 seconds to play, Texas Tech calls a wide receiver screen. When it doesn't work (they get tackled in-bounds after NOT getting the first down), they lost 18 seconds. They ended up running out of time. Poor, poor, poor. Plus it cost me my office pool! The announcers were impressed with Houston being able to beat a "big boy" but they are operating under the assumption that Houston was an inferior team. They did have the game-winning drive in the final minutes, but there was no way Tech was going to stop them: the only time they stopped them all game was on poor play-calls or bad execution by Houston. Case Keenum (Houston's QB) did have a fantastic game through the air, and when Tech did actually cover Houston's receivers, he showed some moxie avoiding pressure and picking up precious yards on the ground, time after time, after time. I'd love to see Houston and Notre Dame play. They have the same MO: underperform for 3.5 quarters and show up the last 7 minutes of the game against a team you should have buried.
Penn State-Iowa: 2 of the 3 perennially overrated Big Ten teams squared off. The one that isn't overrated this year comes away with the W. Of course, now that they'll get all the hype that comes with beating a top 5 team, they too will get a chance to be overrated. And another team's National Championship hopes are dashed in week 4. This game was as ugly as the weather. I lost track of Penn State's turnovers at 37 or so. OK, so it was only 4. 3 of them in their own territory. Plus they had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown, in the 4th quarter, with a 5-point lead. Really, Iowa's offense didn't do anything (and they didn't have to). Now Iowa will get a HUGE jump in the polls, which will last a few weeks until they play a stretch of Michigan, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State. Really, who is a top 25 team this year? Who is a top 10 team this year? It is tough to tell. More to come on that later.
Cal-Oregon: no matter who is playing, if one team doesn't show and the other does it will get ugly. Cal scored 3 points after Oregon fumbled the opening kickoff deep in their own territory. And they didn't score the rest of the game! Oregon moved the ball up and down the field. Oregon's season is moving up and down too. They get blasted by Boise State. They eke out a win at home against Purdue. They play miserably against Utah and win because Utah played more miserably. Then they bury Cal, who was one of the few teams in the country that had looked great in each of its first 3 games. Jahvid Best (Cal's RB) looked like a beast, but one man cannot carry a team without some help. Oregon keyed on him after the first quarter and it was tough sledding for him the rest of the way: he would break a tackle in the backfield only to have two more guys waiting for him at the line of scrimmage. And would the real Oregon offense please show itself: Masoli completes over 80% of his passes against Cal, after completing only 25% against Utah. After no TD passes in 3 games, he throws 3 against one of the best defenses on their schedule. More to come on this schizophrenic behavior later as well.
Virginia Tech-Miami: it is amazing what happens when you play a team with a decent defense. After two amazing games against porous secondaries in Florida State and Georgia Tech, Jacory Harris played a team that can get pressure AND cover people. The result: 4 sacks, one interception, and 9 for 25. Can't say that I'm surprised. And I won't be surprised to see a similar result next week against Oklahoma, a defense that held BYU to 14 points and hasn't allowed a single point since: including shutting Tulsa's high-powered offense out (a team that consistently averages over 40 points a game). Miami's D hasn't exactly been lights out either. It was a little surprising that they didn't stop Virginia Tech's rushing attack AT ALL. 272 yards and 5.5 yards a carry, ouch. Again, it won't get much easier next week against Oklahoma either.
Much more I could say, but I'll say it later.
Notre Dame-Purdue: another close game, another comeback by Notre Dame. The problem is: if they are a top flight team, they shouldn't be needing to come back against the likes of Purdue and Michigan State. Notre Dame is not back. Yet. A lot of their key guys are sophomores and juniors, so maybe next year we'll see something more. Consider me not impressed by their performances up to this point. That Nevada blowout looks less good with each passing week, as Nevada gets blown out by team after team.
Kansas-Southern Mississippi: I don't think Kansas is going to be a serious contender in the Big 12 North this year. I know Southern Miss is a good team. They have a solid rushing attack. They have a dual threat QB. They have a wideout or two that will be playing on Sundays. Their defense forces turnovers with regularity. Actually, you know what, Southern Miss could be a serious contender in the Big 12 North. Maybe the Jayhawks aren't that bad after all. Both teams moved the ball easily on each other. Kansas needs to learn to cover a few people in the secondary, they've still got to play OU, Texas, and Texas Tech, and I guarantee you they will bring it a lot harder than Southern Miss. My suggestion: use the nickel package. All game long. Oh, and protecting Reesing would be a good idea too. He was running for his life for most of the second half.
Texas Tech-Houston: 4th and goal from the 1-yard line. You score, you win. You kick a field goal, and, at worst, you go to overtime. I say: GO FOR IT! Mike Leach does and runs a quarterback sneak. ARE YOU KIDDING ME! A spread passing team runs a QB sneak on the goalline. At least spread them out and run a QB draw from the shotgun! Give them credit though, Houston did play tough. If you believe Tech is superior because they play in a BCS conference and Houston isn't really a top 25 team, then you can say the Cougars deserved to win the game, because they played evenly with a "much superior team." But the fact is: Houston is a good team but didn't reallly deserve to win this game, but Texas Tech deserved it even less. If Houston is a top 15 team, they didn't show it tonight (or maybe this is what a top 15 team looks like this year). The fourth quarter was sloppy for both teams. It was littered with poor coaching decisions, poor throws, and poor ball security. With no timeouts and 40 seconds to play, Texas Tech calls a wide receiver screen. When it doesn't work (they get tackled in-bounds after NOT getting the first down), they lost 18 seconds. They ended up running out of time. Poor, poor, poor. Plus it cost me my office pool! The announcers were impressed with Houston being able to beat a "big boy" but they are operating under the assumption that Houston was an inferior team. They did have the game-winning drive in the final minutes, but there was no way Tech was going to stop them: the only time they stopped them all game was on poor play-calls or bad execution by Houston. Case Keenum (Houston's QB) did have a fantastic game through the air, and when Tech did actually cover Houston's receivers, he showed some moxie avoiding pressure and picking up precious yards on the ground, time after time, after time. I'd love to see Houston and Notre Dame play. They have the same MO: underperform for 3.5 quarters and show up the last 7 minutes of the game against a team you should have buried.
Penn State-Iowa: 2 of the 3 perennially overrated Big Ten teams squared off. The one that isn't overrated this year comes away with the W. Of course, now that they'll get all the hype that comes with beating a top 5 team, they too will get a chance to be overrated. And another team's National Championship hopes are dashed in week 4. This game was as ugly as the weather. I lost track of Penn State's turnovers at 37 or so. OK, so it was only 4. 3 of them in their own territory. Plus they had a punt blocked and returned for a touchdown, in the 4th quarter, with a 5-point lead. Really, Iowa's offense didn't do anything (and they didn't have to). Now Iowa will get a HUGE jump in the polls, which will last a few weeks until they play a stretch of Michigan, @ Wisconsin, @ Michigan State. Really, who is a top 25 team this year? Who is a top 10 team this year? It is tough to tell. More to come on that later.
Cal-Oregon: no matter who is playing, if one team doesn't show and the other does it will get ugly. Cal scored 3 points after Oregon fumbled the opening kickoff deep in their own territory. And they didn't score the rest of the game! Oregon moved the ball up and down the field. Oregon's season is moving up and down too. They get blasted by Boise State. They eke out a win at home against Purdue. They play miserably against Utah and win because Utah played more miserably. Then they bury Cal, who was one of the few teams in the country that had looked great in each of its first 3 games. Jahvid Best (Cal's RB) looked like a beast, but one man cannot carry a team without some help. Oregon keyed on him after the first quarter and it was tough sledding for him the rest of the way: he would break a tackle in the backfield only to have two more guys waiting for him at the line of scrimmage. And would the real Oregon offense please show itself: Masoli completes over 80% of his passes against Cal, after completing only 25% against Utah. After no TD passes in 3 games, he throws 3 against one of the best defenses on their schedule. More to come on this schizophrenic behavior later as well.
Virginia Tech-Miami: it is amazing what happens when you play a team with a decent defense. After two amazing games against porous secondaries in Florida State and Georgia Tech, Jacory Harris played a team that can get pressure AND cover people. The result: 4 sacks, one interception, and 9 for 25. Can't say that I'm surprised. And I won't be surprised to see a similar result next week against Oklahoma, a defense that held BYU to 14 points and hasn't allowed a single point since: including shutting Tulsa's high-powered offense out (a team that consistently averages over 40 points a game). Miami's D hasn't exactly been lights out either. It was a little surprising that they didn't stop Virginia Tech's rushing attack AT ALL. 272 yards and 5.5 yards a carry, ouch. Again, it won't get much easier next week against Oklahoma either.
Much more I could say, but I'll say it later.
Friday, September 25, 2009
CSU-BYU Pregame thoughts
CSU wants to run the ball up the middle. BYU may be a little weak there right now after giving up over 300+ on the ground last game and they are going to be short at least a starting NT, possibly a starting MLB as well. Advantage CSU run game.
BYU wants to throw the ball around the field, averaging over 330 yards/game through the air. CSU is 88th in pass defense, and they haven't even played anybody yet who can throw it around like BYU. Advantage BYU pass game.
BYU's D got torched for 54 points last game. CSU's O is coming off a 35-point effort. Advantage CSU offense.
CSU's D is giving up a shade under 3 TDs a game against average offenses. BYU's above average offense is scoring just under 5 TDs. Advantage BYU offense.
CSU is +7 in turnover margin. BYU is -4. Advantage CSU.
CSU and BYU both have similar net punting. CSU is 80% on field goals, BYU is 67%. CSU hasn't done well at returning kicks. BYU has been even worse. Slight advantage CSU.
CSU is 1-0 on the road. BYU is 0-1 at home. BYU is better than CSU's previous road opponent (Colorado). CSU is worse than BYU's previous home opponent (Florida State). Advantage LaVell Edwards Stadium/BYU.
Last year, BYU won the game on a last-minute TD, taking the game in Fort Collins 45-42. This year, I expect the home crowd to help the recently-humbled Cougars pull away a little bit earlier. BYU 41, CSU 28.
Thursday, September 24, 2009
Week 4 predictions
Was anybody really surprised South Carolina beat Ole Miss tonight? I sure wasn't. Two things preventing South Carolina from being a great team: 5 dropped interceptions in tonight's game and 3 field goals of less than 30 yards (meaning they aren't able to punch it in from inside the 10). One thing preventing Ole Miss from being a great team: they are still Ole Miss. Congrats to the Huskies, as well. It is a DIFFERENT feel in Seattle these days, you could see it in the LSU game and it can carry them for a little while, though I think they will likely fade a bit down the stretch: just don't quite have the depth this year. A good recruiting class and a couple of JC transfers can patch that up for next year.
Week 4:
Missouri over Nevada: 42-27. Should be a fun offensive affair. Remember the pre-season hype about Nevada? Remember some smart guy told you they weren't good?
Northwestern over Minnesota: 38-28. Winner of this game goes to 3-1, shows some progress for both of these programs. Too bad one of them has to lose.
Kansas over Southern Mississippi: 38-20. KU's biggest test to this point, but I think they pass because it shouldn't be tough for a team that has designs on contending for the Big 12 North.
Georgia Tech over North Carolina: 20-13. Georgia Tech has had some time to regroup, come up with a better offensive gameplan, and figure out how to cover the post route on D. UNC's defense is supposed to be its strength, but their discipline will be tested in this game.
Cincinnati over Fresno State: 45-35. Fresno always plays up on the road against BCS competition, but watching them at home against Boise State it's clear: emotion will only take you so far, you still have to be assignment-sound (especially on kickoff coverage!)
Boston College over Wake Forest: 24-17. Neither of these team's offenses have shown me much (granted I've only seen parts of one game for each). Wake's first road and conference game. BC, looking to rebound after a HORRID showing against Clemson last week, gets the win at home.
UNLV gets its first conference road win of the Mike Sanford era (it's only year 5 though...curb those expectations a bit, will ya) over Wyoming: 16-13. Neither one of these times have shown an ability to sustain long drives this year and both of them have shown pretty good defense. UNLV wins a battle of field goals.
Alabama over Arkansas: 38-24. Alabama is playing as well as anybody in the country, of course only three teams are really playing well (Florida and Texas being the other two: any guesses on the number of teams that will cycle through the top 25 this year? I'm guessing we'll see 40-50 teams in and out over the course of the season). Arkansas lost at home to a team not quite as good as Bama. Good luck on the road!
Virginia Tech wins as an underdog at home over Miami: 27-17. Miami has moved the ball well on two pretty bad defenses. Jacory Harris has looked all world, but it's easy when you have all day to throw and wide open receivers to throw to. He won't have either on Saturday. Va Tech's O needs to figure something out, but the D and special teams can make plays and score points too.
Clemson over TCU: 27-17. The final MWC tower comes crashing. I believe TCU can shut down Clemson's O most of the game, but when you have a guy like C.J. Spiller, all 11 defenders have to be on their toes for every single play. He'll eventually break a couple of big plays and the Horned Frogs go down. ACC flexes on the MWC for a second straight week.
Iowa State edges Army: 24-20. Army is back to the triple option, which will eat some clock and keep them in the game, but in the end, the Cyclones prevail.
Oregon over Cal: 34-27. Cal had its struggles last week at Minnesota. Oregon may have gotten this thing turned around after two straight home wins against one BCS team and a better non-BCS team. There are question marks for both teams, though Cal has looked like the better squad to this point. Jahvid Best disappeared at times for Cal during their game last week. He can't afford to be the invisible (Heis)man for too long this game or they won't win it. Cal OC Andy Ludwig craps out in the end, just like his former Utes did last week.
Oregon State over Arizona: 23-19. Not sure what to think about Zona yet. Maybe they lost to a good Iowa team last week, maybe they lost to a mediocre Iowa team. But I do know Oregon State lost at home to a Big East team. Ouch.
Speaking of Iowa...Penn State over Iowa: 34-21. Several people have Penn State on upset alert. I'm not buying into this Iowa team, having watch snippets of a couple of their games so far. Their running game is very impressive, but to get the Penn State crowd out of it, you need quick-strike capability, and they don't have it. I guess mounting a 14-running-play TD drive that eats up 10 minutes of clock could get the crowd out of it as well...don't see it. Nittany Lions avoid being the next top 10 team to lose.
Texas Tech nips Houston's BCS bid in the bud: 45-35. Texas Tech had a strong performance on the road at Texas. I'd expect them to play even stronger at Houston, since it isn't as tough a place nor as tough a team to play. Tech looks good. The biggest concern is the absolute lack of a running game, especially if you end up in inclement weather. Houston can score points with the best of them, but unfortunately you need some defense. Oh, and also, Tech is one of the best of them too.
Notre Dame gets a much needed road win at Purdue: 38-17. Notre Dame needs to make a big statement here. It's not enough to just get a win here, even Northern Illinois did that last week. This Purdue team is not very good so eking out a win doesn't impress people. You want to be a contender, you have to demolish inferior opponents and hope to beat one or two of the superior ones. Light it up or lights out on Weis' internship.
I like Washington, just not this week, not sure I like them next week either at Notre Dame. Stanford over UW: 24-13. I'm not confident that the D can play at the same level of intensity as it did last week, particular the front 7, which had a very noble effort against the Trojans. The O has moved the ball at times, but has struggled with consistency. Here, playing their first road game, I think Stanford comes away on top. Stanford looks improved as well. I think next year, both of these teams have a good shot to dethrone Cal/Oregon for biggest little brother in the Pac 1.
Utah over Louisville: 24-20. These teams are very similar: good defenses trying to carry fairly poor offenses. I read this week that Utah's D hasn't lived up to expectations: only if your expectations were unreal. They are weak against the run up the middle and on the long outside bomb. That is where teams are moving the ball on them. But that is about the only place opposing offenses have moved it on them. Considering the O is turning the ball over, the punting hasn't been great, and they really aren't a stellar unit to begin with, I'm kind of impressed. They are a good D, that will be able to hold opponents to under their season averages for points and yards, and that should be the expectation with this younger unit. They are giving up just over 20 points/game right now, which is just about what I said would happen this year. This is the only chance for the MWC to make a statement against the Big East, I think they get the W, though it won't exactly be a big statement that one of the Big Three playing at home barely edges the pre-season pick for last in the Big Least. The MWC isn't there yet. They are quickly closing the gap with the Big East, but realistically, they need a few more pretty good years to catch up fully.
Week 4:
Missouri over Nevada: 42-27. Should be a fun offensive affair. Remember the pre-season hype about Nevada? Remember some smart guy told you they weren't good?
Northwestern over Minnesota: 38-28. Winner of this game goes to 3-1, shows some progress for both of these programs. Too bad one of them has to lose.
Kansas over Southern Mississippi: 38-20. KU's biggest test to this point, but I think they pass because it shouldn't be tough for a team that has designs on contending for the Big 12 North.
Georgia Tech over North Carolina: 20-13. Georgia Tech has had some time to regroup, come up with a better offensive gameplan, and figure out how to cover the post route on D. UNC's defense is supposed to be its strength, but their discipline will be tested in this game.
Cincinnati over Fresno State: 45-35. Fresno always plays up on the road against BCS competition, but watching them at home against Boise State it's clear: emotion will only take you so far, you still have to be assignment-sound (especially on kickoff coverage!)
Boston College over Wake Forest: 24-17. Neither of these team's offenses have shown me much (granted I've only seen parts of one game for each). Wake's first road and conference game. BC, looking to rebound after a HORRID showing against Clemson last week, gets the win at home.
UNLV gets its first conference road win of the Mike Sanford era (it's only year 5 though...curb those expectations a bit, will ya) over Wyoming: 16-13. Neither one of these times have shown an ability to sustain long drives this year and both of them have shown pretty good defense. UNLV wins a battle of field goals.
Alabama over Arkansas: 38-24. Alabama is playing as well as anybody in the country, of course only three teams are really playing well (Florida and Texas being the other two: any guesses on the number of teams that will cycle through the top 25 this year? I'm guessing we'll see 40-50 teams in and out over the course of the season). Arkansas lost at home to a team not quite as good as Bama. Good luck on the road!
Virginia Tech wins as an underdog at home over Miami: 27-17. Miami has moved the ball well on two pretty bad defenses. Jacory Harris has looked all world, but it's easy when you have all day to throw and wide open receivers to throw to. He won't have either on Saturday. Va Tech's O needs to figure something out, but the D and special teams can make plays and score points too.
Clemson over TCU: 27-17. The final MWC tower comes crashing. I believe TCU can shut down Clemson's O most of the game, but when you have a guy like C.J. Spiller, all 11 defenders have to be on their toes for every single play. He'll eventually break a couple of big plays and the Horned Frogs go down. ACC flexes on the MWC for a second straight week.
Iowa State edges Army: 24-20. Army is back to the triple option, which will eat some clock and keep them in the game, but in the end, the Cyclones prevail.
Oregon over Cal: 34-27. Cal had its struggles last week at Minnesota. Oregon may have gotten this thing turned around after two straight home wins against one BCS team and a better non-BCS team. There are question marks for both teams, though Cal has looked like the better squad to this point. Jahvid Best disappeared at times for Cal during their game last week. He can't afford to be the invisible (Heis)man for too long this game or they won't win it. Cal OC Andy Ludwig craps out in the end, just like his former Utes did last week.
Oregon State over Arizona: 23-19. Not sure what to think about Zona yet. Maybe they lost to a good Iowa team last week, maybe they lost to a mediocre Iowa team. But I do know Oregon State lost at home to a Big East team. Ouch.
Speaking of Iowa...Penn State over Iowa: 34-21. Several people have Penn State on upset alert. I'm not buying into this Iowa team, having watch snippets of a couple of their games so far. Their running game is very impressive, but to get the Penn State crowd out of it, you need quick-strike capability, and they don't have it. I guess mounting a 14-running-play TD drive that eats up 10 minutes of clock could get the crowd out of it as well...don't see it. Nittany Lions avoid being the next top 10 team to lose.
Texas Tech nips Houston's BCS bid in the bud: 45-35. Texas Tech had a strong performance on the road at Texas. I'd expect them to play even stronger at Houston, since it isn't as tough a place nor as tough a team to play. Tech looks good. The biggest concern is the absolute lack of a running game, especially if you end up in inclement weather. Houston can score points with the best of them, but unfortunately you need some defense. Oh, and also, Tech is one of the best of them too.
Notre Dame gets a much needed road win at Purdue: 38-17. Notre Dame needs to make a big statement here. It's not enough to just get a win here, even Northern Illinois did that last week. This Purdue team is not very good so eking out a win doesn't impress people. You want to be a contender, you have to demolish inferior opponents and hope to beat one or two of the superior ones. Light it up or lights out on Weis' internship.
I like Washington, just not this week, not sure I like them next week either at Notre Dame. Stanford over UW: 24-13. I'm not confident that the D can play at the same level of intensity as it did last week, particular the front 7, which had a very noble effort against the Trojans. The O has moved the ball at times, but has struggled with consistency. Here, playing their first road game, I think Stanford comes away on top. Stanford looks improved as well. I think next year, both of these teams have a good shot to dethrone Cal/Oregon for biggest little brother in the Pac 1.
Utah over Louisville: 24-20. These teams are very similar: good defenses trying to carry fairly poor offenses. I read this week that Utah's D hasn't lived up to expectations: only if your expectations were unreal. They are weak against the run up the middle and on the long outside bomb. That is where teams are moving the ball on them. But that is about the only place opposing offenses have moved it on them. Considering the O is turning the ball over, the punting hasn't been great, and they really aren't a stellar unit to begin with, I'm kind of impressed. They are a good D, that will be able to hold opponents to under their season averages for points and yards, and that should be the expectation with this younger unit. They are giving up just over 20 points/game right now, which is just about what I said would happen this year. This is the only chance for the MWC to make a statement against the Big East, I think they get the W, though it won't exactly be a big statement that one of the Big Three playing at home barely edges the pre-season pick for last in the Big Least. The MWC isn't there yet. They are quickly closing the gap with the Big East, but realistically, they need a few more pretty good years to catch up fully.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
BYU-FSU analysis: day late and a dollar short, just like the Cougars
Well, it was the game BYU fans hope will never happen but fearful will always happen. When BYU plays in (and usually chokes in) a game against a big-name, big-time, big, athletic, fast, tough opponent, usually one of two things prevents them from winning: turnovers on offense or the defense not being able to stop the opposing team. With Florida State last weekend: it was both (to the nth degree). The offense and special teams turned it over FIVE times. The defense NEVER stopped Florida State. The only time Florida State didn't score was when they tripped over themselves on the way to the end zone: no joke, it happened twice. But hey, SOMEBODY had to stop them and it wasn't going to be BYU's secondary. Against Oklahoma they overcame two turnovers and pulled out the victory, thanks to the defense and the fact that there were only two, one more and they were gone. Against FSU, the exact opposite was true.
Why the turnovers: first the fumbles. Rarely does a BYU running back fumble on a running play. The fumbles come on passing plays from WRs, RBs, and TEs trying to make a play in space without any playmaking ability. This has been true of BYU throughout the entire Bronco Mendenhall era. 90% of BYU's fumbles come on passing plays, it's science. For a team that only passes 60-65% of the time, that number is a little disconcerting, um, maybe something to work on in practice with the WRs, not just the RBs. The ball gets spread around to so many different players, and not all of them can hang on to the football. Austin Collie only fumbled a few times in his career, I'm sure Pitta has once or twice (though I can't remember a single instance), and Harvey Unga may have been guilty of putting it on the turf a time or two in his career. The playmakers aren't the ones fumbling the ball. Andrew George, O'Neill Chambers, Vic So'oto back in his TE days, DeLuigi, etc. are the guys coughing it up. Problem is, when Max loses faith in those guys to not fumble, he locks in on Pitta, which leads to problem number two.
Second, the interceptions. Max Hall knows who he can trust to make catches, make plays, and not fumble. The problem is: the defense does too! TCU game last season: Hall's picks were on throws to Pitta and Collie. Utah game: same thing. The other issue that Hall has is not necessarily his own: he throws to guys who have broken off their route. When he locks in on his main guys, the other guys start to get lazy, they stop running their routes (especially if Max hangs on to the ball too long), they don't get in position to catch the ball, and when Hall tries to thread the needle to them, the D is usually in a better position to make a play than the O. The more he spreads the ball around, the more the WRs are going to work. I am not blaming Hall for this at all, it's entirely on the WRs: they shouldn't get lazy whether they get thrown to once or 100 times. I will mention, however, that he needs to get them involved earlier in the game.
Why the defense stunk: first, the secondary. I'm not making excuses or anything like that, but Scott Johnson, the QB of the defense at free safety, was hurt and did not play. He aligns the coverages, makes sure everyone is in the right position, etc. He wasn't in, and it started to look like BYU's secondary from 2008. Bills and Te'o are good safeties, they were usually in the right place doing the right things, but they didn't do nearly the job that Johnson had done the first two games of the season. Plus, they are both strong safeties really, and last year BYU's secondary showed what happens when you have to play guys out of position, and it was bad, very bad. Johnson will be back at free safety next game.
Second, the speed of Florida State. It wasn't necessarily that BYU's players were slower, though they certainly were, but it was that they took poor angles, which can be attributed to not seeing speed like FSU's in the open field. OU has the same speed but they never got in the open field like the 'Noles did (play, after play, after play). You can make up for lack of speed (to some degree) by single geometry. Well, the BYU defense must have missed math class the week of the FSU game because they stunk it up. BYU won't have to deal with angles as much for the next few weeks, since their speed matches up fairly well with the next several opponents.
I am not as worried about the BYU defense having any repeat performances. Looking at the rest of BYU's schedule, the teams with speed that they still play, don't have an OL AND QB like FSU's (TCU has a similar QB, Utah has a similar OL, but neither has both). However, the turnover problem on O and special teams will continue to creep up. It's just the wannabe playmakers coughing it up and Max Hall not checking down fast enough. BYU will probably continue to have that problem against good defenses the rest of the season because the personnel (and the personalities of the personnel) isn't going to change. And buckle up, Cougar fans, next year might be worse with a less experienced QB and the loss of Pitta and George. Oh, and there are a lot of seniors that will graduate in the front 7 on defense, plus the aforementioned QB of the defense, Scott Johnson.
Any chance Bronco can have a rebuilding year like they did in 2007 (11-2, undefeated in conference)? Well, he has upstart Washington at home, travels to Florida State, gets Nevada at home, and travels to another upwardly mobile program in Utah State. In conference they get TCU, Utah, Air Force, and Colorado State on the road. That screams 8-4 to me and a third/fourth-place MWC finish. Give me about 8 or 9 months to look at it more closely before I make an actual prediction though...
Why the turnovers: first the fumbles. Rarely does a BYU running back fumble on a running play. The fumbles come on passing plays from WRs, RBs, and TEs trying to make a play in space without any playmaking ability. This has been true of BYU throughout the entire Bronco Mendenhall era. 90% of BYU's fumbles come on passing plays, it's science. For a team that only passes 60-65% of the time, that number is a little disconcerting, um, maybe something to work on in practice with the WRs, not just the RBs. The ball gets spread around to so many different players, and not all of them can hang on to the football. Austin Collie only fumbled a few times in his career, I'm sure Pitta has once or twice (though I can't remember a single instance), and Harvey Unga may have been guilty of putting it on the turf a time or two in his career. The playmakers aren't the ones fumbling the ball. Andrew George, O'Neill Chambers, Vic So'oto back in his TE days, DeLuigi, etc. are the guys coughing it up. Problem is, when Max loses faith in those guys to not fumble, he locks in on Pitta, which leads to problem number two.
Second, the interceptions. Max Hall knows who he can trust to make catches, make plays, and not fumble. The problem is: the defense does too! TCU game last season: Hall's picks were on throws to Pitta and Collie. Utah game: same thing. The other issue that Hall has is not necessarily his own: he throws to guys who have broken off their route. When he locks in on his main guys, the other guys start to get lazy, they stop running their routes (especially if Max hangs on to the ball too long), they don't get in position to catch the ball, and when Hall tries to thread the needle to them, the D is usually in a better position to make a play than the O. The more he spreads the ball around, the more the WRs are going to work. I am not blaming Hall for this at all, it's entirely on the WRs: they shouldn't get lazy whether they get thrown to once or 100 times. I will mention, however, that he needs to get them involved earlier in the game.
Why the defense stunk: first, the secondary. I'm not making excuses or anything like that, but Scott Johnson, the QB of the defense at free safety, was hurt and did not play. He aligns the coverages, makes sure everyone is in the right position, etc. He wasn't in, and it started to look like BYU's secondary from 2008. Bills and Te'o are good safeties, they were usually in the right place doing the right things, but they didn't do nearly the job that Johnson had done the first two games of the season. Plus, they are both strong safeties really, and last year BYU's secondary showed what happens when you have to play guys out of position, and it was bad, very bad. Johnson will be back at free safety next game.
Second, the speed of Florida State. It wasn't necessarily that BYU's players were slower, though they certainly were, but it was that they took poor angles, which can be attributed to not seeing speed like FSU's in the open field. OU has the same speed but they never got in the open field like the 'Noles did (play, after play, after play). You can make up for lack of speed (to some degree) by single geometry. Well, the BYU defense must have missed math class the week of the FSU game because they stunk it up. BYU won't have to deal with angles as much for the next few weeks, since their speed matches up fairly well with the next several opponents.
I am not as worried about the BYU defense having any repeat performances. Looking at the rest of BYU's schedule, the teams with speed that they still play, don't have an OL AND QB like FSU's (TCU has a similar QB, Utah has a similar OL, but neither has both). However, the turnover problem on O and special teams will continue to creep up. It's just the wannabe playmakers coughing it up and Max Hall not checking down fast enough. BYU will probably continue to have that problem against good defenses the rest of the season because the personnel (and the personalities of the personnel) isn't going to change. And buckle up, Cougar fans, next year might be worse with a less experienced QB and the loss of Pitta and George. Oh, and there are a lot of seniors that will graduate in the front 7 on defense, plus the aforementioned QB of the defense, Scott Johnson.
Any chance Bronco can have a rebuilding year like they did in 2007 (11-2, undefeated in conference)? Well, he has upstart Washington at home, travels to Florida State, gets Nevada at home, and travels to another upwardly mobile program in Utah State. In conference they get TCU, Utah, Air Force, and Colorado State on the road. That screams 8-4 to me and a third/fourth-place MWC finish. Give me about 8 or 9 months to look at it more closely before I make an actual prediction though...
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Non-BCS tracker, week 3
Not a good week for the Mountain West: losses by BYU and Utah against BCS opponents. BYU's defense looked horrid, not stopping Florida State from converting on third down until the fourth quarter, when the outcome was already decided. Utah's O didn't generate ANYTHING by itself, scoring nearly all of their points off of Oregon turnovers or special teams miscues. SDSU lost to one of the 10 worst teams in the country, Idaho (at least it was on the road). Wyoming got blasted by previous non-BCS whipping boy Colorado, 24-0 (at least that was on the road as well). UNLV did beat Hawaii, CSU had their way against Nevada, and TCU scored 56 against their I-AA opponent. 3-4 out of conference was not what the MWC ordered.
Moral victories:
East Carolina on the road making North Carolina score late to seal the win.
Eastern Michigan only trailing Michigan by 7 at the half.
Akron making Indiana work to beat them.
Florida International making their game against Rutgers look respectable by scoring 15 in the 4th quarter.
SMU taking Washington State to OT on the road (ignoring the fact that they blew several double-digit leads during the game).
Navy playing Pitt down to the wire.
Utah State playing at Texas A&M very competitively.
Rice putting up 24 at OK State (much better than the 10 at Texas Tech last week).
Florida Atlantic only down 1 at South Carolina at halftime.
Utah having the ball with a chance to tie late in the 4th at Oregon, despite getting no offensive production all day.
Miami (OH) actually scoring. It was in a game against another non-BCS school, but still. Congrats!
Actual victories:
Northern Illinois winning at Purdue.
Middle Tennessee State winning at Maryland (second straight year they beat them too).
Southern Mississippi rallying from behind to beat Virginia.
Yeah, short list this week.
You can't do thats:
Toledo getting shut out at home after putting up 50+ against CU last week.
Wyoming getting blanked by that same CU team.
The high-flying Tulsa offense getting shut out at Oklahoma.
Kent State giving Iowa State its first road win since Army went to a bowl game. OK, maybe it wasn't that long ago Iowa State won a road game.
BYU giving up 54 points and 500+ yards at home to a Florida State team that managed TWO offensive TDs at home against a I-AA opponent last week.
Western Kentucky losing by 21 points to a I-AA team. Maybe I should leave the Hilltoppers out of this section: they are bad enough that they can do that...
Moral victories:
East Carolina on the road making North Carolina score late to seal the win.
Eastern Michigan only trailing Michigan by 7 at the half.
Akron making Indiana work to beat them.
Florida International making their game against Rutgers look respectable by scoring 15 in the 4th quarter.
SMU taking Washington State to OT on the road (ignoring the fact that they blew several double-digit leads during the game).
Navy playing Pitt down to the wire.
Utah State playing at Texas A&M very competitively.
Rice putting up 24 at OK State (much better than the 10 at Texas Tech last week).
Florida Atlantic only down 1 at South Carolina at halftime.
Utah having the ball with a chance to tie late in the 4th at Oregon, despite getting no offensive production all day.
Miami (OH) actually scoring. It was in a game against another non-BCS school, but still. Congrats!
Actual victories:
Northern Illinois winning at Purdue.
Middle Tennessee State winning at Maryland (second straight year they beat them too).
Southern Mississippi rallying from behind to beat Virginia.
Yeah, short list this week.
You can't do thats:
Toledo getting shut out at home after putting up 50+ against CU last week.
Wyoming getting blanked by that same CU team.
The high-flying Tulsa offense getting shut out at Oklahoma.
Kent State giving Iowa State its first road win since Army went to a bowl game. OK, maybe it wasn't that long ago Iowa State won a road game.
BYU giving up 54 points and 500+ yards at home to a Florida State team that managed TWO offensive TDs at home against a I-AA opponent last week.
Western Kentucky losing by 21 points to a I-AA team. Maybe I should leave the Hilltoppers out of this section: they are bad enough that they can do that...
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Weekend Predictions
I have some witnesses that I picked Boise State by 17 last night. Looks like I nailed that one.
Short on time, so I'll just throw some score predictions out.
California over Minnesota, 35-13. I do think this is Cal's year: if they can't take the Pac 10 from USC this year, it will be a few years before they can mount another serious challenge to the Trojans...
Kansas over Duke 42-17.
Ohio State better put up 35 or more if they want to beat Toledo on the road: 42-34.
East Carolina upsets North Carolina 24-10.
Clemson beats Boston College 38-28.
USC, coming off a big game, QB situation in flux, always has a down game in conference. Is this it? Washington, elated after their first victory in a LONG time, will give the Trojans a fantastic game: USC avoids the upset, though, 31-28.
Utah's first test. Going on the road to a hostile environment. Oregon needs something positive in a big way. One of these teams is going to get going today. Based on Utah's QB and Oregon's home-field, I'm going to say it's Oregon 38-17, but I could be EXACTLY wrong and it might be 38-17 the other way. Like I said, one of these teams is going to get rolling today at the expense of the other. Pretty much everybody outside of the top 5 has showed a lot of inconsistency thus far, Utah and Oregon both are included in that list for sure. Anna, this pick is for you. Go Ducks!
Oklahoma over Tulsa 38-24.
Virginia Tech over Nebraska 31-16.
Florida over Tennessee 45-13.
Notre Dame over Michigan State, 35-24.
Wyoming over Colorado (this looks more like a must win for the Mountain West than a good, surprising upset by a bottom-feeder over a bottom-feeder), 13-10. If CU doesn't win here, their season is DONE.
Iowa over Arizona, 27-20.
SMU over Washington State, 38-24.
CSU over Nevada, 38-35 (more of a hope than what I actually think will happen).
Baylor over UConn, 27-13.
Pitt over Navy in a great game: 31-27.
Oregon State over Cincy, 38-31 (they better play SOME D if the Beavers want to pull this one off: not sold on Cincy until they defeat a REAL opponent on the road, Rutgers doesn't count).
OK State over Rice, 48-28.
Texas A&M over Utah State, 31-24.
Northwestern over the Cuse, 41-28.
Georgia over Arkansas, 38-35.
Auburn over West Virginia, 27-17.
UCLA over K-State (even with their backup QB), 35-10.
BYU over Florida State, 31-17 (I think BYU struggles early, but as emotional as Florida State plays, I think they run out of gas in the 4th after wasting a lot of energy celebrating big plays early in the game: I may get to a preview of this game later, but I'm not sure, I am pretty stoked to be attending this one, I know Florida State isn't ranked, but the air in Provo tells me for the people here this is the BIGGEST game played in LaVell Edwards Stadium in a long time).
Short on time, so I'll just throw some score predictions out.
California over Minnesota, 35-13. I do think this is Cal's year: if they can't take the Pac 10 from USC this year, it will be a few years before they can mount another serious challenge to the Trojans...
Kansas over Duke 42-17.
Ohio State better put up 35 or more if they want to beat Toledo on the road: 42-34.
East Carolina upsets North Carolina 24-10.
Clemson beats Boston College 38-28.
USC, coming off a big game, QB situation in flux, always has a down game in conference. Is this it? Washington, elated after their first victory in a LONG time, will give the Trojans a fantastic game: USC avoids the upset, though, 31-28.
Utah's first test. Going on the road to a hostile environment. Oregon needs something positive in a big way. One of these teams is going to get going today. Based on Utah's QB and Oregon's home-field, I'm going to say it's Oregon 38-17, but I could be EXACTLY wrong and it might be 38-17 the other way. Like I said, one of these teams is going to get rolling today at the expense of the other. Pretty much everybody outside of the top 5 has showed a lot of inconsistency thus far, Utah and Oregon both are included in that list for sure. Anna, this pick is for you. Go Ducks!
Oklahoma over Tulsa 38-24.
Virginia Tech over Nebraska 31-16.
Florida over Tennessee 45-13.
Notre Dame over Michigan State, 35-24.
Wyoming over Colorado (this looks more like a must win for the Mountain West than a good, surprising upset by a bottom-feeder over a bottom-feeder), 13-10. If CU doesn't win here, their season is DONE.
Iowa over Arizona, 27-20.
SMU over Washington State, 38-24.
CSU over Nevada, 38-35 (more of a hope than what I actually think will happen).
Baylor over UConn, 27-13.
Pitt over Navy in a great game: 31-27.
Oregon State over Cincy, 38-31 (they better play SOME D if the Beavers want to pull this one off: not sold on Cincy until they defeat a REAL opponent on the road, Rutgers doesn't count).
OK State over Rice, 48-28.
Texas A&M over Utah State, 31-24.
Northwestern over the Cuse, 41-28.
Georgia over Arkansas, 38-35.
Auburn over West Virginia, 27-17.
UCLA over K-State (even with their backup QB), 35-10.
BYU over Florida State, 31-17 (I think BYU struggles early, but as emotional as Florida State plays, I think they run out of gas in the 4th after wasting a lot of energy celebrating big plays early in the game: I may get to a preview of this game later, but I'm not sure, I am pretty stoked to be attending this one, I know Florida State isn't ranked, but the air in Provo tells me for the people here this is the BIGGEST game played in LaVell Edwards Stadium in a long time).
Monday, September 14, 2009
Non-BCS tracker
Well, the playing field isn't level. There are a lot more bad non-BCS teams than there are bad BCS teams. However, there are some non-BCS schools that, despite the lack of money, talent, and fan support, compete very well with some of the big boys. So I thought I'd start a little segment tracking the progress of these non-BCS accomplishments called: Moral Victories, Actual Victories, and You Can't Do Thats. There are a lot of less-than-stellar performances by non-BCS teams, but the ones that go in the "You Can't Do That" section are those performances by decent non-BCS teams, or things that NO non-BCS team should ever do, no matter what the state of the program is.
Moral Victories:
Eastern Michigan, a lower level MAC team, took Northwestern down to the wire, tying the game late in the second half. Northwestern needed a field goal with 6 seconds left to take the lead and win the home game.
Western Michigan never quite got the score tied against Indiana, but they are another MAC team that gave the Big Ten a scare in Hoosierville this weekend.
Fresno State went into Camp Randall and took Wisconsin to 2 OTs before falling on an underthrown should-have-been-TD-turned-interception.
East Carolina played at West Virginia and kept the score close before giving up two TDs in the second half and falling 35-20.
Wyoming held Texas to 6 points through 29.5 minutes and led 10-6 JUST before halftime.
Air Force went to Minnesota to open their new stadium and play the first on-campus game there in over 50 years. They fell just one TD short after a late fumble sealed their fate.
Bowling Green forced Mizzou to score two late TDs to take the lead and win. Even with the home victory, Mizzou dropped from the rankings.
Florida International played Bama tough the first half, going into the break only trailing by 6. They knocked several Alabama players out of the game on legitimate, legal, but bone-crunching hits.
UNLV made a comeback against Oregon State, taking the lead in the final minutes before falling on a last-second field goal.
The thing that stands out is: most of these games are happening on the road. Only Wyoming and UNLV were fortunate enough to get home games against their BCS opponents.
Actual Victories:
Houston taking out Oklahoma State. Anybody figure out how Houston wins by 10 AT OK State and is ranked behind them? Preseason rankings have got to go!
Hawaii laid a "neutral site" beatdown on Washington State, leading 35-0 at one point.
TCU led at Virginia 30-0 before two LATE TDs by Virginia made it 30-14.
Toledo blasted Colorado and was clearly the superior team in the game.
Central Michigan had some last minute heroics to beat Sparty in East Lansing.
Louisiana-Lafayette beat K-State. I guess that 5-year extension on Bill Snyder's contract came a week early. Although I don't know what the administration saw that was impressive enough to warrant the extension in their week 1 21-17 win over I-AA Massachusetts. It was less impressive than what Ron Prince got fired for.
You Can't Do Thats:
Army lost big at home to Duke, who had just been defeated at home by I-AA Richmond. You can't do that.
Colorado State recovered a fumbled snap one play before I-AA Weber State would have kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes. You can't do that.
Ball State fell to their I-AA opponent, New Hampshire. I know they are a good I-AA team, but wasn't Ball State complaining how they deserved a chance at the BCS last season? You can't do that.
Rice lost by 45 to Texas Tech. Rice was supposed to be one of the better non-BCS schools this season. You can't do that.
New Mexico State only beat I-AA Prairie View A&M by 3 points. You can't do that.
Moral Victories:
Eastern Michigan, a lower level MAC team, took Northwestern down to the wire, tying the game late in the second half. Northwestern needed a field goal with 6 seconds left to take the lead and win the home game.
Western Michigan never quite got the score tied against Indiana, but they are another MAC team that gave the Big Ten a scare in Hoosierville this weekend.
Fresno State went into Camp Randall and took Wisconsin to 2 OTs before falling on an underthrown should-have-been-TD-turned-interception.
East Carolina played at West Virginia and kept the score close before giving up two TDs in the second half and falling 35-20.
Wyoming held Texas to 6 points through 29.5 minutes and led 10-6 JUST before halftime.
Air Force went to Minnesota to open their new stadium and play the first on-campus game there in over 50 years. They fell just one TD short after a late fumble sealed their fate.
Bowling Green forced Mizzou to score two late TDs to take the lead and win. Even with the home victory, Mizzou dropped from the rankings.
Florida International played Bama tough the first half, going into the break only trailing by 6. They knocked several Alabama players out of the game on legitimate, legal, but bone-crunching hits.
UNLV made a comeback against Oregon State, taking the lead in the final minutes before falling on a last-second field goal.
The thing that stands out is: most of these games are happening on the road. Only Wyoming and UNLV were fortunate enough to get home games against their BCS opponents.
Actual Victories:
Houston taking out Oklahoma State. Anybody figure out how Houston wins by 10 AT OK State and is ranked behind them? Preseason rankings have got to go!
Hawaii laid a "neutral site" beatdown on Washington State, leading 35-0 at one point.
TCU led at Virginia 30-0 before two LATE TDs by Virginia made it 30-14.
Toledo blasted Colorado and was clearly the superior team in the game.
Central Michigan had some last minute heroics to beat Sparty in East Lansing.
Louisiana-Lafayette beat K-State. I guess that 5-year extension on Bill Snyder's contract came a week early. Although I don't know what the administration saw that was impressive enough to warrant the extension in their week 1 21-17 win over I-AA Massachusetts. It was less impressive than what Ron Prince got fired for.
You Can't Do Thats:
Army lost big at home to Duke, who had just been defeated at home by I-AA Richmond. You can't do that.
Colorado State recovered a fumbled snap one play before I-AA Weber State would have kicked a game-winning field goal in the final minutes. You can't do that.
Ball State fell to their I-AA opponent, New Hampshire. I know they are a good I-AA team, but wasn't Ball State complaining how they deserved a chance at the BCS last season? You can't do that.
Rice lost by 45 to Texas Tech. Rice was supposed to be one of the better non-BCS schools this season. You can't do that.
New Mexico State only beat I-AA Prairie View A&M by 3 points. You can't do that.
Sunday, September 13, 2009
Week 2 recap, rankings, MWC report, etc.
Well, I would just like to say: I stand by my performance on picking this week. Nobody gave Ohio State a chance: they lost, but it was close like I said it would be. I totally missed on ND-Michigan, UConn-UNC, Iowa-Iowa State, and UCLA-Tennessee. Wyoming played solid D for the first half and then their noble effort fell a little short. Okie State and Houston played a high-scoring game, I just had the wrong team winning it. TCU crushed Virginia (they were ahead 30-0 with 5 minutes left before Virginia scored 2 late TDs to make it LOOK respectable). UW beat Idaho 42-23, I had 41-13. WVU beat ECU 35-20, I had 31-20. Georgia had an offensive explosion, like I said (I just thought that was 13 points instead of 41). A late fumble by Air Force in Minnesota territory ended a drive that could have tied the score at 20 and sent it into OT (I had AFA winning in OT 23-20). Kansas blew out UTEP 34-7. I had Oregon beating Purdue 38-31, if not for a late Purdue TD and failed two-point conversion, it would have ended 38-30, instead it was 38-36. I had Oregon State winning a close one over UNLV 27-17, it was 23-21. Utah beat SJSU 24-14, I had 24-17. I stand by that performance and wanted to point it out...
The MWC got the 5 wins they should have gotten, and lost all the other games. UNLV nearly pulled off the upset over Oregon State: a field goal in the waning seconds gave Oregon State the lead and the win. Air Force had a chance to tie the game late at Minnesota. Wyoming played Texas TOUGH for a half (they led 10-6 before Texas rattled off 35 unanswered at the end of the first half and the second half). New Mexico was the only complete embarrassment for the conference. It wasn't a bad week for the conference, it just wasn't a great one. Next week, the stakes just get higher: Wyoming goes to reeling CU, Utah heads to Autzen stadium to take on the resurgent Oregon Ducks, CSU hosts WAC pretender Nevada, MWC bottom-feeder SDSU plays WAC bottom-feeder Idaho in the week's biggest pillowfight, the Florida State Seminoles head to Provo to take on BYU, TCU takes on a I-AA opponent, and UNLV hosts Hawaii (who just demolished Washington State 38-20, though it was 35-0 at one point). I think 5-2 is what the conference needs to continue showing ON THE FIELD that they deserve a BCS bid. At an initial glance, I think the conference will probably go 3-4 but I'd have to look at it more closely before making any final predictions.
The rankings:
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Utah
4. USC
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Nebraska
8. Alabama
9. Penn State
10. Mississippi
11. Cincinatti
12. Missouri
13. California
14. Tulsa
15. BYU
16. LSU
17. Texas Tech
18. Oregon State
19. Iowa
20. Kansas
21. Arizona
22. Kentucky
23. Wisconsin
24. West Virginia
25. Miami
26. Northwestern
27. Pittsburgh
28. Georgia Tech
29. Colorado State
30. Minnesota
31. Houston
32. Baylor
33. South Florida
34. Michigan
35. North Carolina
36. Boston College
37. Auburn
38. Southern Mississippi
39. Texas A&M
40. UCLA
41. SMU
42. Indiana
43. Louisiana-Lafayette
44. Hawaii
Exits this week (those who are no longer above .500): Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Connecticut, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan State, South Carolina, Buffalo, UAB, North Texas, Air Force, East Carolina, Bowling Green, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Stanford, Army, Idaho, and Fresno State.
New entries this week (those over .500 that didn't play a I-AA opponent this week): SMU, Indiana, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Hawaii.
The MWC got the 5 wins they should have gotten, and lost all the other games. UNLV nearly pulled off the upset over Oregon State: a field goal in the waning seconds gave Oregon State the lead and the win. Air Force had a chance to tie the game late at Minnesota. Wyoming played Texas TOUGH for a half (they led 10-6 before Texas rattled off 35 unanswered at the end of the first half and the second half). New Mexico was the only complete embarrassment for the conference. It wasn't a bad week for the conference, it just wasn't a great one. Next week, the stakes just get higher: Wyoming goes to reeling CU, Utah heads to Autzen stadium to take on the resurgent Oregon Ducks, CSU hosts WAC pretender Nevada, MWC bottom-feeder SDSU plays WAC bottom-feeder Idaho in the week's biggest pillowfight, the Florida State Seminoles head to Provo to take on BYU, TCU takes on a I-AA opponent, and UNLV hosts Hawaii (who just demolished Washington State 38-20, though it was 35-0 at one point). I think 5-2 is what the conference needs to continue showing ON THE FIELD that they deserve a BCS bid. At an initial glance, I think the conference will probably go 3-4 but I'd have to look at it more closely before making any final predictions.
The rankings:
1. Florida
2. Texas
3. Utah
4. USC
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Nebraska
8. Alabama
9. Penn State
10. Mississippi
11. Cincinatti
12. Missouri
13. California
14. Tulsa
15. BYU
16. LSU
17. Texas Tech
18. Oregon State
19. Iowa
20. Kansas
21. Arizona
22. Kentucky
23. Wisconsin
24. West Virginia
25. Miami
26. Northwestern
27. Pittsburgh
28. Georgia Tech
29. Colorado State
30. Minnesota
31. Houston
32. Baylor
33. South Florida
34. Michigan
35. North Carolina
36. Boston College
37. Auburn
38. Southern Mississippi
39. Texas A&M
40. UCLA
41. SMU
42. Indiana
43. Louisiana-Lafayette
44. Hawaii
Exits this week (those who are no longer above .500): Ohio State, Oklahoma State, Connecticut, Clemson, Notre Dame, Michigan State, South Carolina, Buffalo, UAB, North Texas, Air Force, East Carolina, Bowling Green, Purdue, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Stanford, Army, Idaho, and Fresno State.
New entries this week (those over .500 that didn't play a I-AA opponent this week): SMU, Indiana, Louisiana-Lafayette, and Hawaii.
Friday, September 11, 2009
A few predictions
Ohio State-USC: everything says that the Trojans should win big. They are bigger, faster, stronger, better coached, more poised, etc. They dominated in their game last week, taking a little while to get going, but were rolling starting in quarter number two. Ohio State, in the mean time, struggled against the Navy rushing attack. They didn't get good play from their O-line either. Pryor made some bad decisions with the football: tucking and running when he should have passed, passing when he should have tucked and ran, etc. However, this is college football: the superior team does not always win. You don't think the Buckeyes will be motivated as the underdogs AT HOME, after hearing for 9 months how USC was going to roll them? Pryor goes Vince Young on the Trojan D, leading them to a game-winning TD late in the game. Either that, or USC blows them out by 28. Ohio State 24, USC 20.
ND-Michigan: another storied Big Ten program an underdog at home. I guess the odds-makers have caught on to the reality about the Big Ten: they are not good. Lucky for Michigan, Notre Dame isn't that great yet either. This is a big game for both teams, both coaches, but only one of them can win. I'm going to pick the Irish with a slight lead going into the 4th, then things unraveling for the defense and freshmen QBs of the Maize and Blue and the game getting out of hand. Notre Dame 31, Michigan 13.
UConn upsets UNC, 27-18.
Fresno State lays a beatdown at Camp Randall 24-13 over Wisconsin.
Iowa's field goal defense can't save them this week: they fall 31-21 to Iowa State.
Wyoming's valiant defensive effort falls a little bit short (OK, so a lot short: I know they are praying for a Wyoming Monsoon tomorrow afternoon): Texas 34, Wyoming 9.
OK State outscores Houston in the most exciting game of the day: OSU 52, Houston 35.
TCU beats Virginia 17-6.
Washington ends the losing streak! Huskies 41, Idaho 13.
West Virginia does not start a losing streak to East Carolina: WVU 31, ECU 20.
Tennessee and UCLA will reveal their true colors tomorrow after some creampuffs in week one. I think Tennessee is the better football team, but it's tough to say without having seen much. Rocky Top 35, UCLA 24.
Georgia 13, South Carolina 3: offensive explosion for the Bulldogs between the hedges.
Air Force 23, Minnesota 20 (OT)...what are the odds the Gophers lose the same way they won last week?
Kansas 42, UTEP 24.
Oregon rebounds with a nice win over Purdue in the kind of game I expected from the Ducks-Broncos game last week: Ducks 38, Boilermakers 31.
Oregon State edges UNLV in a fairly close game: Beavers 27, UNLV 17.
Utah probably survives this trap game though I think it will be interesting to see how they respond with a young QB on the road for the first time. Defense will probably have to win this game because Utah relies solely on their game plan and sucks at halftime adjustments: Utah 24, San Jose State 17.
On a side note: Colorado got blasted by Toledo tonight, 54-38. The Buffaloes are done this year, perhaps as a program as well. I don't see how they get to even 6 wins this year. There isn't a WR/RB on the CU roster that would start for Toledo (and that is not to take anything away from Toledo who also notched a win in the Big House last year, but no Big 12 school should be short on the talent side of things to a MAC school: and don't give me that potential talent crap, put up or shut up). Darrell Scott is a perfect example: may be a gifted athlete, but he cannot find a hole in the running game unless it is gaping, and he's worse as a return guy. He just keeps running into his own blockers.
The Colorado DBs could not cover anybody, even on plays where Toledo only sent two guys out on passing routes. They couldn't stop the running game: no penetration, shoddy tackling, you name it, CU had issues with it! How on earth will they compete in the Big 12? Blame a lack of experience, blame a lack of speed, blame whatever you want: Coach Hawkins has been there long enough to have recruited SOME speed and given good players SOME experience.
I am all for giving a guy a legitimate shot, but it became clear to me tonight that Dan Hawkins is not the right fit for the job at CU. He can be a successful coach somewhere else, but he does not mesh with the culture at CU, which is turning into a losing culture. If he doesn't go soon, the program might be lost forever. The cupboard is already bare, and it will only get worse if he's allowed to hang around the kitchen too much longer.
ND-Michigan: another storied Big Ten program an underdog at home. I guess the odds-makers have caught on to the reality about the Big Ten: they are not good. Lucky for Michigan, Notre Dame isn't that great yet either. This is a big game for both teams, both coaches, but only one of them can win. I'm going to pick the Irish with a slight lead going into the 4th, then things unraveling for the defense and freshmen QBs of the Maize and Blue and the game getting out of hand. Notre Dame 31, Michigan 13.
UConn upsets UNC, 27-18.
Fresno State lays a beatdown at Camp Randall 24-13 over Wisconsin.
Iowa's field goal defense can't save them this week: they fall 31-21 to Iowa State.
Wyoming's valiant defensive effort falls a little bit short (OK, so a lot short: I know they are praying for a Wyoming Monsoon tomorrow afternoon): Texas 34, Wyoming 9.
OK State outscores Houston in the most exciting game of the day: OSU 52, Houston 35.
TCU beats Virginia 17-6.
Washington ends the losing streak! Huskies 41, Idaho 13.
West Virginia does not start a losing streak to East Carolina: WVU 31, ECU 20.
Tennessee and UCLA will reveal their true colors tomorrow after some creampuffs in week one. I think Tennessee is the better football team, but it's tough to say without having seen much. Rocky Top 35, UCLA 24.
Georgia 13, South Carolina 3: offensive explosion for the Bulldogs between the hedges.
Air Force 23, Minnesota 20 (OT)...what are the odds the Gophers lose the same way they won last week?
Kansas 42, UTEP 24.
Oregon rebounds with a nice win over Purdue in the kind of game I expected from the Ducks-Broncos game last week: Ducks 38, Boilermakers 31.
Oregon State edges UNLV in a fairly close game: Beavers 27, UNLV 17.
Utah probably survives this trap game though I think it will be interesting to see how they respond with a young QB on the road for the first time. Defense will probably have to win this game because Utah relies solely on their game plan and sucks at halftime adjustments: Utah 24, San Jose State 17.
On a side note: Colorado got blasted by Toledo tonight, 54-38. The Buffaloes are done this year, perhaps as a program as well. I don't see how they get to even 6 wins this year. There isn't a WR/RB on the CU roster that would start for Toledo (and that is not to take anything away from Toledo who also notched a win in the Big House last year, but no Big 12 school should be short on the talent side of things to a MAC school: and don't give me that potential talent crap, put up or shut up). Darrell Scott is a perfect example: may be a gifted athlete, but he cannot find a hole in the running game unless it is gaping, and he's worse as a return guy. He just keeps running into his own blockers.
The Colorado DBs could not cover anybody, even on plays where Toledo only sent two guys out on passing routes. They couldn't stop the running game: no penetration, shoddy tackling, you name it, CU had issues with it! How on earth will they compete in the Big 12? Blame a lack of experience, blame a lack of speed, blame whatever you want: Coach Hawkins has been there long enough to have recruited SOME speed and given good players SOME experience.
I am all for giving a guy a legitimate shot, but it became clear to me tonight that Dan Hawkins is not the right fit for the job at CU. He can be a successful coach somewhere else, but he does not mesh with the culture at CU, which is turning into a losing culture. If he doesn't go soon, the program might be lost forever. The cupboard is already bare, and it will only get worse if he's allowed to hang around the kitchen too much longer.
BYU-Tulane Preview
I've spoken with a lot of BYU fans who are concerned about a letdown tomorrow by BYU. Let me tell you why I'm not worried about that:
1) The offense only put up 14 points. Harvey Unga did not get a chance to play so IF he does get cleared by the trainers to play, he'll be looking to leave a few bruises on Tulane defenders in the running game. The offense failed to run the ball in the second half last week. They are going to want to establish that with some physicality upfront. WR O'Neill Chambers fumbled a ball on the 2-yard line, leading to a turnover and zero points for BYU: he'll want to redeem himself (plus, being from Florida, he'll probably have a lot of friends and family in attendance at the Superdome). Unga's replacement at RB Brian Kariya had a big play but got caught from behind and tackled inside the 5, and had several rushes inside the 5 that didn't go for scores, he'll want to find the end zone. Max Hall threw two interceptions last week: he'll want to be more precise and improve his decision-making skills (plus Ryan Reynolds won't be roaming the field this weekend). I just think the O, in particular, will be hungry and will cut down on mistakes and put more points on the board. I think, having watched Tulsa's spread option running attack have success running and throwing against the Green Wave, that BYU will move the ball and score the ball. I give them 6-7 scores, somewhere between 38-49 points.
2) Defensively, they are going up against a fairly weak offense. With regards to size and speed, Tulane is nothing compared to what Oklahoma put out there last week. The one exception is at WR. Oklahoma had more raw talent, speed, size, etc. Tulane, however, has a couple of guys with phenomenal hands that know how to get open, and they have the one thing the OU receivers lacked: experience. However, the O-line had problems protecting the QB and the running game was pretty much non-existent against Tulsa. So the D, where there might be a little hangover from last week, doesn't have nearly as much to worry about. The other aspect there though: a lot of guys rotate in and out on D, so they play hard each play, knowing that they are going to get a breather, and if they don't perform well, they might get a long breather! Tulane will probably be able to move the ball a bit through the air, but I'm not sure they can sustain a lot of long drives. They do have some big play potential, especially if they decide to just air it out, and will probably score 2-3 times for between 10-17 points.
3) Whether it was a motivational tool for his team or just plain honesty I don't know, but Coach Toledo stated that his team does not have the tools to compete with BYU at this time, but that they are trying to build the program so that in the future they would be able to. If the coach doesn't believe in an upset, how will the players buy into it? I think Bronco Mendenhall has done a better job with the media and his team in preparation for this game, just based on some of the public comments he made and what I know about Bronco's approach to game preparation.
4) It's on ESPN2, overlapping with a couple of other good games on other channels, but it's on national TV, and they don't get many opportunities like that to impress on a national scale. I think this BYU team has a desire to go out and hit people in the mouth and show as many people as possible that this is not last year's BYU team. This is their last ESPN regular season audience.
I think Coach Toledo is right: the Green Wave do not have the horses, particularly the front 7 on D and the hogs on the O-line, to compete with a top 15-20 team (not willing to call BYU top 10 just yet: it was a pretty sloppy game last week and I didn't get a chance to see all of the other top 15-20 play to make that judgement). My actual final score prediction is 41-13.
1) The offense only put up 14 points. Harvey Unga did not get a chance to play so IF he does get cleared by the trainers to play, he'll be looking to leave a few bruises on Tulane defenders in the running game. The offense failed to run the ball in the second half last week. They are going to want to establish that with some physicality upfront. WR O'Neill Chambers fumbled a ball on the 2-yard line, leading to a turnover and zero points for BYU: he'll want to redeem himself (plus, being from Florida, he'll probably have a lot of friends and family in attendance at the Superdome). Unga's replacement at RB Brian Kariya had a big play but got caught from behind and tackled inside the 5, and had several rushes inside the 5 that didn't go for scores, he'll want to find the end zone. Max Hall threw two interceptions last week: he'll want to be more precise and improve his decision-making skills (plus Ryan Reynolds won't be roaming the field this weekend). I just think the O, in particular, will be hungry and will cut down on mistakes and put more points on the board. I think, having watched Tulsa's spread option running attack have success running and throwing against the Green Wave, that BYU will move the ball and score the ball. I give them 6-7 scores, somewhere between 38-49 points.
2) Defensively, they are going up against a fairly weak offense. With regards to size and speed, Tulane is nothing compared to what Oklahoma put out there last week. The one exception is at WR. Oklahoma had more raw talent, speed, size, etc. Tulane, however, has a couple of guys with phenomenal hands that know how to get open, and they have the one thing the OU receivers lacked: experience. However, the O-line had problems protecting the QB and the running game was pretty much non-existent against Tulsa. So the D, where there might be a little hangover from last week, doesn't have nearly as much to worry about. The other aspect there though: a lot of guys rotate in and out on D, so they play hard each play, knowing that they are going to get a breather, and if they don't perform well, they might get a long breather! Tulane will probably be able to move the ball a bit through the air, but I'm not sure they can sustain a lot of long drives. They do have some big play potential, especially if they decide to just air it out, and will probably score 2-3 times for between 10-17 points.
3) Whether it was a motivational tool for his team or just plain honesty I don't know, but Coach Toledo stated that his team does not have the tools to compete with BYU at this time, but that they are trying to build the program so that in the future they would be able to. If the coach doesn't believe in an upset, how will the players buy into it? I think Bronco Mendenhall has done a better job with the media and his team in preparation for this game, just based on some of the public comments he made and what I know about Bronco's approach to game preparation.
4) It's on ESPN2, overlapping with a couple of other good games on other channels, but it's on national TV, and they don't get many opportunities like that to impress on a national scale. I think this BYU team has a desire to go out and hit people in the mouth and show as many people as possible that this is not last year's BYU team. This is their last ESPN regular season audience.
I think Coach Toledo is right: the Green Wave do not have the horses, particularly the front 7 on D and the hogs on the O-line, to compete with a top 15-20 team (not willing to call BYU top 10 just yet: it was a pretty sloppy game last week and I didn't get a chance to see all of the other top 15-20 play to make that judgement). My actual final score prediction is 41-13.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
What to look for: Week 2
Obviously the sexy matchup is USC at Ohio State, but let's look at some other stuff that might be of interest this weekend.
1: North Carolina @ UConn (this would be the best matchup of the week on the hardwood, no doubt). The ACC is in need of a big win, and while this isn't HUGE, it's still something. North Carolina is supposed to be for real under Butch Davis. UConn is the biggest test/best measuring stick the Tar Heels will have outside of conference (not that they couldn't lose to East Carolina...). Randy Edsall at UConn places a lot of emphasis on special teams, it's not Beamer Ball, but it's still pretty good. Early in the year, with offenses and defenses playing a little sloppy, that could be the key in this game.
2: The bounce-back game. How do teams respond after a poor showing in week 1? Virginia hosts TCU after losing to I-AA William & Mary (actually you can place almost all ACC teams in here...). Iowa travels to in-state rival Iowa State after a close call with I-AA in-state "rival" Northern Iowa. Ball State, Oregon, Georgia, Illinois, OU, New Mexico could probably all go on this list. Ohio State didn't play so hot last week either against a tough Navy team. The thing with playing Navy is: 11 guys hit 11 guys on EVERY play. How will the Buckeyes recover from that physicality, especially going against a team with a similar philosophy but bigger, stronger, faster athletes?
3: The let-down game. After picking up big wins or playing above expectations, will teams be able to carry the momentum in week 2? BYU is the major headliner here, heading into a different type of shrine, the Superdome. But North Texas, Oklahoma State, Alabama, California, Colorado State all played above expectations this week. Now some of these play I-AA teams this week, so there shouldn't be a letdown...Other teams I am interested to see in week 2 are Washington and Navy: though they lost their openers, they both played better than anybody thought they would (except for me...) against top 10-15 teams.
4: The upset bid. Last week you had an upset or two, will there be another one this week? There are some big teams playing road games against inferior opponents that might be able to shock them. Texas goes to Wyoming, Kansas travels to UTEP, BYU at Tulane, Utah at San Jose State. They are all big favorites in the game: but that is why you PLAY the game. Other ranked teams that may get a little more than they expect in home games: Florida from Troy's D, Oklahoma State with Houston's O, and Alabama from FIU's toughness.
5: The Mountain West's second overture. TCU plays at Virginia, BYU at Tulane, Wyoming hosts Texas, Air Force plays at Minnesota for the unveiling of their new on-campus stadium, New Mexico hosts Tulsa, Utah plays at San Jose State in a late game, and UNLV hosts Oregon State. The others play I-AA teams. They SHOULD get 5 wins, but it would do a lot for the conference if they could pick up 7 or 8. I don't think Wyoming or New Mexico can pull it off, but if Air Force could do what Navy couldn't quite do: beat a Big Ten on the road, and UNLV can shock Oregon State like it did Arizona State last season, the conference can crow for the second straight week about its worthiness to be a BCS conference. BYU and Utah are both playing trap games: light opponents on the road right before a big-time game against a big-name opponent.
1: North Carolina @ UConn (this would be the best matchup of the week on the hardwood, no doubt). The ACC is in need of a big win, and while this isn't HUGE, it's still something. North Carolina is supposed to be for real under Butch Davis. UConn is the biggest test/best measuring stick the Tar Heels will have outside of conference (not that they couldn't lose to East Carolina...). Randy Edsall at UConn places a lot of emphasis on special teams, it's not Beamer Ball, but it's still pretty good. Early in the year, with offenses and defenses playing a little sloppy, that could be the key in this game.
2: The bounce-back game. How do teams respond after a poor showing in week 1? Virginia hosts TCU after losing to I-AA William & Mary (actually you can place almost all ACC teams in here...). Iowa travels to in-state rival Iowa State after a close call with I-AA in-state "rival" Northern Iowa. Ball State, Oregon, Georgia, Illinois, OU, New Mexico could probably all go on this list. Ohio State didn't play so hot last week either against a tough Navy team. The thing with playing Navy is: 11 guys hit 11 guys on EVERY play. How will the Buckeyes recover from that physicality, especially going against a team with a similar philosophy but bigger, stronger, faster athletes?
3: The let-down game. After picking up big wins or playing above expectations, will teams be able to carry the momentum in week 2? BYU is the major headliner here, heading into a different type of shrine, the Superdome. But North Texas, Oklahoma State, Alabama, California, Colorado State all played above expectations this week. Now some of these play I-AA teams this week, so there shouldn't be a letdown...Other teams I am interested to see in week 2 are Washington and Navy: though they lost their openers, they both played better than anybody thought they would (except for me...) against top 10-15 teams.
4: The upset bid. Last week you had an upset or two, will there be another one this week? There are some big teams playing road games against inferior opponents that might be able to shock them. Texas goes to Wyoming, Kansas travels to UTEP, BYU at Tulane, Utah at San Jose State. They are all big favorites in the game: but that is why you PLAY the game. Other ranked teams that may get a little more than they expect in home games: Florida from Troy's D, Oklahoma State with Houston's O, and Alabama from FIU's toughness.
5: The Mountain West's second overture. TCU plays at Virginia, BYU at Tulane, Wyoming hosts Texas, Air Force plays at Minnesota for the unveiling of their new on-campus stadium, New Mexico hosts Tulsa, Utah plays at San Jose State in a late game, and UNLV hosts Oregon State. The others play I-AA teams. They SHOULD get 5 wins, but it would do a lot for the conference if they could pick up 7 or 8. I don't think Wyoming or New Mexico can pull it off, but if Air Force could do what Navy couldn't quite do: beat a Big Ten on the road, and UNLV can shock Oregon State like it did Arizona State last season, the conference can crow for the second straight week about its worthiness to be a BCS conference. BYU and Utah are both playing trap games: light opponents on the road right before a big-time game against a big-name opponent.
Wednesday, September 9, 2009
What we learned: Week 1
1: Washington might actually be a pretty decent football team. They lost at home in the season-opener. But this Washington team is a far cry from the one that finished last season. They were flying all over the place, laying SEC-style licks on defense. The offense had some mojo, moving the ball fairly well through the air and on the ground, getting the ball to some quick players in space. Now I'm not saying they are going to upset USC next weekend (the 19th), but USC will be coming off a hard-fought battle in the Shoe, while Washington will be recovering from their first win in nearly two years after the beatdown they will lay on Idaho this Saturday. Just saying.
2: The Big Ten is still the Big Ten. While Illinois was the only one that lost, and that was a thorough beatdown, there were a lot of near-misses. Minnesota needing overtime to put the Cuse away. Ohio State having to intercept a two-point conversion to seal a win over Navy. Purdue giving up 31 points to MAC "powerhouse" Toledo. Indiana beating I-AA Eastern Kentucky by only 6 points. Wisconsin taking on another MAC team, Northern Illinois, and only escaping by 8 in Camp Randall Stadium. And, of course, Iowa needing to block TWO field goals against I-AA Northern Iowa to narrowly escape.
3: The ACC is fighting with the Big East for the worst BCS conference label. If you follow college football at all, you know how embarrassing their first week was: only ONE win against I-A teams and that was Clemson taking on a middle of the road SUN BELT team. A lot of people saw the Miami-FSU game as the saving grace of the weekend for them: I saw a lot of BAD defense and a dropped game-winning TD on the last play of the game after some of the worst clock management and personnel decisions I've seen in college football. And this was Bobby Bowden!
4: The Big East isn't as balanced as people think. The Cincinnati-Rutgers blowout does not show balance, it pleads mediocrity. The so-called frontrunner of the conference got lambasted on national TV, in a home opener on Labor Day. If a rebuilding CINCINNATI team wins by 32 on the road against a Big East Championship contender, the conference is weak: I don't care what kind of strides Cincinnati has made. They got beatdown by Va Tech last year in their BCS game, and they aren't as good this year: Pitt needs to rise to the occasion and save this conference with an 11-1 run this year!
5: As usual, we won't learn much about the SEC until bowl season. They played two ranked teams outside of conference and went 1-1. They only have one more ranked team on the rest of the non-conference schedule: Georgia Tech THREE times (and if they win all 3 games, Georgia Tech won't be ranked for long!). The fact is: if the Fighting Bumblebees have a bad year, the SEC will play one of the, if not the absolute, weakest non-conference slates in the country. So, which one is it: bad offense or good defense? If Georgia-OK State is any indication: it's a little bit of both. Georgia held a high-flying OK State team to only 24 points, instead of the 38 they will probably average on the year. However, they only scored 10 points on a team that will probably give up 24 points a game for the season.
6: The gap between the top 5 and the rest of the top 25 is one solid hit to the QB.
2: The Big Ten is still the Big Ten. While Illinois was the only one that lost, and that was a thorough beatdown, there were a lot of near-misses. Minnesota needing overtime to put the Cuse away. Ohio State having to intercept a two-point conversion to seal a win over Navy. Purdue giving up 31 points to MAC "powerhouse" Toledo. Indiana beating I-AA Eastern Kentucky by only 6 points. Wisconsin taking on another MAC team, Northern Illinois, and only escaping by 8 in Camp Randall Stadium. And, of course, Iowa needing to block TWO field goals against I-AA Northern Iowa to narrowly escape.
3: The ACC is fighting with the Big East for the worst BCS conference label. If you follow college football at all, you know how embarrassing their first week was: only ONE win against I-A teams and that was Clemson taking on a middle of the road SUN BELT team. A lot of people saw the Miami-FSU game as the saving grace of the weekend for them: I saw a lot of BAD defense and a dropped game-winning TD on the last play of the game after some of the worst clock management and personnel decisions I've seen in college football. And this was Bobby Bowden!
4: The Big East isn't as balanced as people think. The Cincinnati-Rutgers blowout does not show balance, it pleads mediocrity. The so-called frontrunner of the conference got lambasted on national TV, in a home opener on Labor Day. If a rebuilding CINCINNATI team wins by 32 on the road against a Big East Championship contender, the conference is weak: I don't care what kind of strides Cincinnati has made. They got beatdown by Va Tech last year in their BCS game, and they aren't as good this year: Pitt needs to rise to the occasion and save this conference with an 11-1 run this year!
5: As usual, we won't learn much about the SEC until bowl season. They played two ranked teams outside of conference and went 1-1. They only have one more ranked team on the rest of the non-conference schedule: Georgia Tech THREE times (and if they win all 3 games, Georgia Tech won't be ranked for long!). The fact is: if the Fighting Bumblebees have a bad year, the SEC will play one of the, if not the absolute, weakest non-conference slates in the country. So, which one is it: bad offense or good defense? If Georgia-OK State is any indication: it's a little bit of both. Georgia held a high-flying OK State team to only 24 points, instead of the 38 they will probably average on the year. However, they only scored 10 points on a team that will probably give up 24 points a game for the season.
6: The gap between the top 5 and the rest of the top 25 is one solid hit to the QB.
Tuesday, September 8, 2009
The Mo Knows Rankings
Well, the first games have been played, and the Mo Knows Ranking system can be updated. Remember, this is about finding a ranking system that will get the best teams at the end of the season, not during. Also, a few reminders about the rules of the rankings:
1) You must be above .500 (so if you lost in week 1, you cannot get ranked until you return to 2-1)
2) You start this season where you ended last season
3) Your ranking cannot improve if you play a I-AA opponent (exception: Fresno State who played a I-AA team this weekend, was ranked #63, and is now #60, because the number of ranked teams dropped from 63 to 60)
4) You cannot win and drop in the polls (exception: on a week where the strength of schedule formula is included-after weeks 6, 10, and 14)
I will also post my top 25 after one week, with a recap of the weekend's action later on Tuesday.
1 Florida
2 Texas
3 Utah
4 USC
5 TCU
6 Boise State
7 Ohio State
8 Nebraska
9 Alabama
10 Penn State
11 Cincinnati
12 Mississippi
13 California
14 Missouri
15 Tulsa
16 BYU
17 Oklahoma State
18 LSU
19 Texas Tech
20 Oregon State
21 Arizona
22 Connecticut
23 Iowa
24 Kansas
25 Kentucky
26 Clemson
27 Wisconsin
28 West Virginia
29 Colorado State
30 Notre Dame
31 Michigan State
32 Miami
33 Northwestern
34 South Carolina
35 Pittsburgh
36 Georgia Tech
37 Minnesota
38 Buffalo
39 UAB
40 Houston
41 Baylor
42 South Florida
43 North Texas
44 Michigan
45 North Carolina
46 Air Force
47 East Carolina
48 Boston College
49 Bowling Green
50 Auburn
51 Purdue
52 Vanderbilt
53 Tennessee
54 Stanford
55 Southern Mississippi
56 Texas A&M
57 Army
58 UCLA
59 Idaho
60 Fresno State
1) You must be above .500 (so if you lost in week 1, you cannot get ranked until you return to 2-1)
2) You start this season where you ended last season
3) Your ranking cannot improve if you play a I-AA opponent (exception: Fresno State who played a I-AA team this weekend, was ranked #63, and is now #60, because the number of ranked teams dropped from 63 to 60)
4) You cannot win and drop in the polls (exception: on a week where the strength of schedule formula is included-after weeks 6, 10, and 14)
I will also post my top 25 after one week, with a recap of the weekend's action later on Tuesday.
1 Florida
2 Texas
3 Utah
4 USC
5 TCU
6 Boise State
7 Ohio State
8 Nebraska
9 Alabama
10 Penn State
11 Cincinnati
12 Mississippi
13 California
14 Missouri
15 Tulsa
16 BYU
17 Oklahoma State
18 LSU
19 Texas Tech
20 Oregon State
21 Arizona
22 Connecticut
23 Iowa
24 Kansas
25 Kentucky
26 Clemson
27 Wisconsin
28 West Virginia
29 Colorado State
30 Notre Dame
31 Michigan State
32 Miami
33 Northwestern
34 South Carolina
35 Pittsburgh
36 Georgia Tech
37 Minnesota
38 Buffalo
39 UAB
40 Houston
41 Baylor
42 South Florida
43 North Texas
44 Michigan
45 North Carolina
46 Air Force
47 East Carolina
48 Boston College
49 Bowling Green
50 Auburn
51 Purdue
52 Vanderbilt
53 Tennessee
54 Stanford
55 Southern Mississippi
56 Texas A&M
57 Army
58 UCLA
59 Idaho
60 Fresno State
Sunday, September 6, 2009
BYU-OU notes
Well, I was wrong about a lot of things with this game.
1) I liked the BYU defense before the game. I should have loved it. This was a blitzing, confusing, hard-hitting, flying-all-over-the-field D. What I thought all off-season turned out to be true: they upgraded at every position or brought back a returning starter (with more experience, i.e. an upgrade). A lot of people talked about Oklahoma's line looking new and totally confused: I would say the entire OU coaching staff was confused. That was not the BYU defense that they had seen on film or prepared for. Plus they had multiple goal-line stands and held OU to 13 points despite OU starting SEVEN possessions on their own 40-yard line or better (3 of which occurred while Bradford was still in the game: last year that was at least 21 points). The question now is: can they bring that intensity every week the rest of the season?
2) BYU has constantly folded under the pressure of the big game, ever since I can remember. The difference is that in most of those games they weren't that big of underdogs. There is no pressure if nobody expects you to compete. So I overestimated the amount of pressure they would be feeling. Now, the outlook may not look so good for the Florida State and TCU games since those will be big-time games with big-time consequences and high expectations. I do believe they drop one of those games, although this team proved me wrong yesterday: I hope they do it in both those games as well.
3) Oklahoma NEVER attempted to utilize the speed advantage on offense and I'm not sure they had a real big speed advantage on D (other than Gerald McCoy, the 300-pound defensive tackle who seemed to catch BYU running backs from behind). It also goes to show you that execution can neutralize speed. A precise route can get you open just as easily as outrunning somebody, though BYU actually did both of those during the game.
4) BYU did not have to play perfectly to win, as evidenced by the 4 turnovers (2 in their own territory and another on the 1-yard line going in to score), 10 penalties for 87 yards, and gift-wrapping 10 points to Oklahoma. As I said a few weeks back, it's a good thing the game was played in week 1: Oklahoma still needed to work out a few kinks, and BYU was able to overcome their kinks.
A few other thoughts: I figure BYU should jump in the AP to about 13 or 14, maybe as high as 12, based on teams ahead of them that lost (Oregon, Georgia, and maybe even Va Tech or Oklahoma), didn't play (Florida State and TCU), or had less impressive victories (Utah and maybe Georgia Tech). I'm not sure about the Coaches Poll, there are a lot of teams to jump since they are 24 in that poll, but I think they can probably move up 9 or 10 spots and get to 14-15. BYU fans have now become Oklahoma fans, as it won't be as impressive to have beaten a 6-6 Oklahoma team (much like Utah's win over 3-9 Michigan didn't carry as much weight later in the year). I imagine Cougar fans will be cheering for Florida State on Monday against Miami as well. For an encore, BYU needs to beat Tulane next week by at least 4 scores. Having watched parts from the Tulane-Tulsa game, that shouldn't be too hard. Tulane has a large, but very slow and unskilled offensive line. Their receivers catch everything thrown near them. Their QB looked fairly poised and has a cannon but did not look very light on his feet. Their D plays disciplined but without much size or speed, even by BYU standards. The precision of BYU's offense should be able to put points on the board. If Harvey Unga does play, I expect him to run for over 100 as Tulsa had 4 players who averaged over 5 yards/carry. The running game for Tulane is pretty much a non-factor, so if BYU can put together a few blitz packages, they should be able to stuff the Green Wave offense cold. Whether they can/will do it, I don't know, but I know they NEED to follow up the win in Dallas with a blowout in Nawlins. That game is on ESPN2 at 3:30pm ET, 1:30pm MT.
For a while now, the knock on the non-BCS schools is that they don't have the depth to play in the big conferences. Well, both teams had injuries coming into and during the game, but BYU won the game in spite of theirs (stud RB Harvey Unga didn't play a snap in the game, they started a former walk-on scout team player on the O-line, and their defensive team captain and last year's leading tackler went out in the 2nd quarter and did not return). I know none of those injuries is a Heisman trophy winner, but hey, it's Oklahoma, their backup QB is supposed to be better than any QB in the lesser conferences... That also puts OU, who has won the last THREE Big 12 championships, at 1-3 the past 4 years against good non-BCS opponents (1-1 against TCU, loss to Boise State, and loss to BYU). So you have the flagship program of the 2nd best BCS conference only able to beat the flagship programs of the non-BCS 25% of the time, maybe the gap isn't as big as people imagine...I'm thinking if the MWC adds Boise State, drops New Mexico, Wyoming, or SDSU, then it MIGHT be the 5th best conference in the country (also ahead of the ACC who went 4-6 this week: 3-2 over I-AA teams and 1-4 against I-A teams including 1-0 against the Sun Belt and 0-4 against BCS conference teams). I know one week doesn't say a whole lot about a conference, but Boise State and the MWC did much better than the ACC this week. The Big East had a phenomenal record: 4-0 against I-AA teams, 1-0 against the MAC, and 0-1 against BCS teams. MWC: 3-0 against I-AA, 1-0 against the WAC, and 2-2 against BCS conference teams and Boise State beat a ranked BCS conference team.
I also believe that an undefeated BYU team could have a legitimate shot at the title game. Obviously it depends on a lot of things: other teams losing and doing it at the right time (i.e. when BYU is high enough in the rankings to surpass them) and BYU actually going undefeated being the two major ones. Unlike most undefeated non-BCS schools in the past, they will actually be helped by the computers, assuming that the MWC does OK outside of conference. They are off to a decent start: they won all the games they should and pulled off two upsets. CSU picked up a huge win today over CU and obviously BYU's win yesterday. I thought CSU's running game and D would carry them early in the year, but the passing game was extremely sharp in addition to a solid rushing performance and a stifling D that held CU to 1.4 yards/carry. SDSU jumped out to an early lead against UCLA before sucking it up the rest of the game and New Mexico is just trying to embarrass me because I picked them to finish so high in the MWC, losing 41-6 to Texas A&M.
Other MWC notes: Virginia lost their home-opener to I-AA William & Mary. That hurts the MWC for two reasons: TCU is now playing a MUST-WIN game against Virginia and if and when they do win, it is less impressive because a I-AA team also did it. Of course, it also means TCU is more likely to win the game because Virginia is obviously not a very good team. Essentially, it steals the Mountain West of a chance of getting a quality win on the road over a BCS team: there is no quality in it.
1) I liked the BYU defense before the game. I should have loved it. This was a blitzing, confusing, hard-hitting, flying-all-over-the-field D. What I thought all off-season turned out to be true: they upgraded at every position or brought back a returning starter (with more experience, i.e. an upgrade). A lot of people talked about Oklahoma's line looking new and totally confused: I would say the entire OU coaching staff was confused. That was not the BYU defense that they had seen on film or prepared for. Plus they had multiple goal-line stands and held OU to 13 points despite OU starting SEVEN possessions on their own 40-yard line or better (3 of which occurred while Bradford was still in the game: last year that was at least 21 points). The question now is: can they bring that intensity every week the rest of the season?
2) BYU has constantly folded under the pressure of the big game, ever since I can remember. The difference is that in most of those games they weren't that big of underdogs. There is no pressure if nobody expects you to compete. So I overestimated the amount of pressure they would be feeling. Now, the outlook may not look so good for the Florida State and TCU games since those will be big-time games with big-time consequences and high expectations. I do believe they drop one of those games, although this team proved me wrong yesterday: I hope they do it in both those games as well.
3) Oklahoma NEVER attempted to utilize the speed advantage on offense and I'm not sure they had a real big speed advantage on D (other than Gerald McCoy, the 300-pound defensive tackle who seemed to catch BYU running backs from behind). It also goes to show you that execution can neutralize speed. A precise route can get you open just as easily as outrunning somebody, though BYU actually did both of those during the game.
4) BYU did not have to play perfectly to win, as evidenced by the 4 turnovers (2 in their own territory and another on the 1-yard line going in to score), 10 penalties for 87 yards, and gift-wrapping 10 points to Oklahoma. As I said a few weeks back, it's a good thing the game was played in week 1: Oklahoma still needed to work out a few kinks, and BYU was able to overcome their kinks.
A few other thoughts: I figure BYU should jump in the AP to about 13 or 14, maybe as high as 12, based on teams ahead of them that lost (Oregon, Georgia, and maybe even Va Tech or Oklahoma), didn't play (Florida State and TCU), or had less impressive victories (Utah and maybe Georgia Tech). I'm not sure about the Coaches Poll, there are a lot of teams to jump since they are 24 in that poll, but I think they can probably move up 9 or 10 spots and get to 14-15. BYU fans have now become Oklahoma fans, as it won't be as impressive to have beaten a 6-6 Oklahoma team (much like Utah's win over 3-9 Michigan didn't carry as much weight later in the year). I imagine Cougar fans will be cheering for Florida State on Monday against Miami as well. For an encore, BYU needs to beat Tulane next week by at least 4 scores. Having watched parts from the Tulane-Tulsa game, that shouldn't be too hard. Tulane has a large, but very slow and unskilled offensive line. Their receivers catch everything thrown near them. Their QB looked fairly poised and has a cannon but did not look very light on his feet. Their D plays disciplined but without much size or speed, even by BYU standards. The precision of BYU's offense should be able to put points on the board. If Harvey Unga does play, I expect him to run for over 100 as Tulsa had 4 players who averaged over 5 yards/carry. The running game for Tulane is pretty much a non-factor, so if BYU can put together a few blitz packages, they should be able to stuff the Green Wave offense cold. Whether they can/will do it, I don't know, but I know they NEED to follow up the win in Dallas with a blowout in Nawlins. That game is on ESPN2 at 3:30pm ET, 1:30pm MT.
For a while now, the knock on the non-BCS schools is that they don't have the depth to play in the big conferences. Well, both teams had injuries coming into and during the game, but BYU won the game in spite of theirs (stud RB Harvey Unga didn't play a snap in the game, they started a former walk-on scout team player on the O-line, and their defensive team captain and last year's leading tackler went out in the 2nd quarter and did not return). I know none of those injuries is a Heisman trophy winner, but hey, it's Oklahoma, their backup QB is supposed to be better than any QB in the lesser conferences... That also puts OU, who has won the last THREE Big 12 championships, at 1-3 the past 4 years against good non-BCS opponents (1-1 against TCU, loss to Boise State, and loss to BYU). So you have the flagship program of the 2nd best BCS conference only able to beat the flagship programs of the non-BCS 25% of the time, maybe the gap isn't as big as people imagine...I'm thinking if the MWC adds Boise State, drops New Mexico, Wyoming, or SDSU, then it MIGHT be the 5th best conference in the country (also ahead of the ACC who went 4-6 this week: 3-2 over I-AA teams and 1-4 against I-A teams including 1-0 against the Sun Belt and 0-4 against BCS conference teams). I know one week doesn't say a whole lot about a conference, but Boise State and the MWC did much better than the ACC this week. The Big East had a phenomenal record: 4-0 against I-AA teams, 1-0 against the MAC, and 0-1 against BCS teams. MWC: 3-0 against I-AA, 1-0 against the WAC, and 2-2 against BCS conference teams and Boise State beat a ranked BCS conference team.
I also believe that an undefeated BYU team could have a legitimate shot at the title game. Obviously it depends on a lot of things: other teams losing and doing it at the right time (i.e. when BYU is high enough in the rankings to surpass them) and BYU actually going undefeated being the two major ones. Unlike most undefeated non-BCS schools in the past, they will actually be helped by the computers, assuming that the MWC does OK outside of conference. They are off to a decent start: they won all the games they should and pulled off two upsets. CSU picked up a huge win today over CU and obviously BYU's win yesterday. I thought CSU's running game and D would carry them early in the year, but the passing game was extremely sharp in addition to a solid rushing performance and a stifling D that held CU to 1.4 yards/carry. SDSU jumped out to an early lead against UCLA before sucking it up the rest of the game and New Mexico is just trying to embarrass me because I picked them to finish so high in the MWC, losing 41-6 to Texas A&M.
Other MWC notes: Virginia lost their home-opener to I-AA William & Mary. That hurts the MWC for two reasons: TCU is now playing a MUST-WIN game against Virginia and if and when they do win, it is less impressive because a I-AA team also did it. Of course, it also means TCU is more likely to win the game because Virginia is obviously not a very good team. Essentially, it steals the Mountain West of a chance of getting a quality win on the road over a BCS team: there is no quality in it.
Saturday, September 5, 2009
A few notes
We already had our first I-AA win over I-A: Temple lost to Villanova. I think we might get one more today.
It will be interesting to see how a couple of the games will play out today. 4 teams that I don't expect to see win, but I am interested to see how they play. Navy goes to Ohio State. I'm interested to see how their ball control, option attack works in Columbus. I want to see how the Buckeyes respond after losing Beanie. Will Pryor have a sophomore slump? I'm thinking if Navy can move the ball, win the time of possession battle, it'll actually be a half-decent game. Ohio State 24, Navy 10.
Washington begins the Sarkisian era of football with the daunting task of an SEC defense. Will they be able to put points on the board? As we saw with Oregon on Thursday, great offensive coordinators don't always make for high-scoring offenses once they become head coaches. Plus, it's LSU where defense reigns supreme. The trip from Baton Rouge to Seattle is as far as LSU has ever gone for a game (I don't there is anywhere in the continental US that COULD be further). A little jetlag? LSU 27, Washington 20 (closer than the experts think).
Nevada takes an explosive offense to South Bend, but they don't have the horses to get in a shootout with the Irish. I know a lot of people have put Notre Dame on upset alert but Nevada is a bit over-hyped by a lot of people. You have to play some defense, even in the WAC. I would like to see how the offense works on the road against a quality D, a D with some size and speed. I think they can score some points, it's tough to keep a spread O with a mobile QB down ALL day. Notre Dame 31, Nevada 24 (late touchdown to make it look close).
BYU brings a beaten up, and green, offensive line into Jerry-Mahal against one of the great programs in the country. OU isn't doing so great themselves, replacing a lot of O-linemen, wideouts, and with All-American TE Gresham on the sidelines in street clothes. But there is a difference between OU having to replace guys and BYU having to replace guys. But I would take BYU's defense RIGHT NOW without a snap having been taken over BYU's defense at the end of last season. There is some improvement, especially at LB, leadership, and speed in the secondary. Last year's BYU D couldn't have held OU under 60. I think this D can hold them to 7 scores or less, a feat which only two teams did last season. Offensively, I do expect BYU to be able to move the ball a little bit. Hall will need to spread the ball around. The line will need to give the wideouts enough time to get open so Hall can find them. Defensively, the DBs will have to actually cover somebody. The front 7 will need to get pressure on Bradford AND hold down the running game. The first game, offenses are still adjusting to game speed, so that also works in BYU's favor (except that their game speed is OU's practice speed). Don't get me wrong: BYU COULD win the game, if everything went perfectly. It's one great team against a good team, and anything can happen on the field since it starts 0-0 and all you have to do is score more than your opponent. But they won't win it: too big a stage, too fast a team. Oklahoma 38, BYU 24.
Couple other games today:
Va Tech over Bama, 17-10 (fantastic defensive game)
Georgia over OK State, 31-24. Georgia speed on D forcing bad decisions/turnovers, OK State O based on timing and precision, it won't be there just yet.
Florida over Charleston Southern 70-3.
Illinois over Missouri 31-27.
Nebraska over Florida Atlantic 35-24, in a surprisingly close game.
Texas A&M over New Mexico 20-13.
Cal over Maryland big: 38-17.
UCLA over SDSU 13-10, low-scoring hard-hitting game. Doesn't sound quite right, does it?
Kansas over Northern Colorado 55-3.
Iowa over Northern Iowa 24-21: the Panthers give the Hawkeyes a scare and a half.
It will be interesting to see how a couple of the games will play out today. 4 teams that I don't expect to see win, but I am interested to see how they play. Navy goes to Ohio State. I'm interested to see how their ball control, option attack works in Columbus. I want to see how the Buckeyes respond after losing Beanie. Will Pryor have a sophomore slump? I'm thinking if Navy can move the ball, win the time of possession battle, it'll actually be a half-decent game. Ohio State 24, Navy 10.
Washington begins the Sarkisian era of football with the daunting task of an SEC defense. Will they be able to put points on the board? As we saw with Oregon on Thursday, great offensive coordinators don't always make for high-scoring offenses once they become head coaches. Plus, it's LSU where defense reigns supreme. The trip from Baton Rouge to Seattle is as far as LSU has ever gone for a game (I don't there is anywhere in the continental US that COULD be further). A little jetlag? LSU 27, Washington 20 (closer than the experts think).
Nevada takes an explosive offense to South Bend, but they don't have the horses to get in a shootout with the Irish. I know a lot of people have put Notre Dame on upset alert but Nevada is a bit over-hyped by a lot of people. You have to play some defense, even in the WAC. I would like to see how the offense works on the road against a quality D, a D with some size and speed. I think they can score some points, it's tough to keep a spread O with a mobile QB down ALL day. Notre Dame 31, Nevada 24 (late touchdown to make it look close).
BYU brings a beaten up, and green, offensive line into Jerry-Mahal against one of the great programs in the country. OU isn't doing so great themselves, replacing a lot of O-linemen, wideouts, and with All-American TE Gresham on the sidelines in street clothes. But there is a difference between OU having to replace guys and BYU having to replace guys. But I would take BYU's defense RIGHT NOW without a snap having been taken over BYU's defense at the end of last season. There is some improvement, especially at LB, leadership, and speed in the secondary. Last year's BYU D couldn't have held OU under 60. I think this D can hold them to 7 scores or less, a feat which only two teams did last season. Offensively, I do expect BYU to be able to move the ball a little bit. Hall will need to spread the ball around. The line will need to give the wideouts enough time to get open so Hall can find them. Defensively, the DBs will have to actually cover somebody. The front 7 will need to get pressure on Bradford AND hold down the running game. The first game, offenses are still adjusting to game speed, so that also works in BYU's favor (except that their game speed is OU's practice speed). Don't get me wrong: BYU COULD win the game, if everything went perfectly. It's one great team against a good team, and anything can happen on the field since it starts 0-0 and all you have to do is score more than your opponent. But they won't win it: too big a stage, too fast a team. Oklahoma 38, BYU 24.
Couple other games today:
Va Tech over Bama, 17-10 (fantastic defensive game)
Georgia over OK State, 31-24. Georgia speed on D forcing bad decisions/turnovers, OK State O based on timing and precision, it won't be there just yet.
Florida over Charleston Southern 70-3.
Illinois over Missouri 31-27.
Nebraska over Florida Atlantic 35-24, in a surprisingly close game.
Texas A&M over New Mexico 20-13.
Cal over Maryland big: 38-17.
UCLA over SDSU 13-10, low-scoring hard-hitting game. Doesn't sound quite right, does it?
Kansas over Northern Colorado 55-3.
Iowa over Northern Iowa 24-21: the Panthers give the Hawkeyes a scare and a half.
Friday, September 4, 2009
Oregon @ Boise State
Oregon:
That did not look like an offense that can score with any team in the country. I think they were too focused on putting little brother in his place instead of going out trying to win a football game. They had better get their heads on straight if they are going to compete in the Pac 10 or beat Utah here in two weeks. Don't take the Bellotti approach and try to show your superiority as a BCS team. You aren't better just because your conference is better! Prove it on the field!
Defensively they did OK, considering what the score COULD have been. However, there were a lot of miscues by Boise State's O and special teams. At least SOME of that is attributable to Oregon. They weren't able to stop the run on 1st down. They had pretty soft coverage on 3rd down. They couldn't get consistent pressure on the QB and when they did, Kellen Moore was able to sidestep it.
Offensively it was bad, very bad. Missing open receivers, dropped balls, no push upfront on running plays, etc. Again, they thought they were faster, tougher, more talented, but they weren't. While Boise State may not have the 3 or 4-deep that Oregon does, they have a similar (or better) 2-deep. In a one-game situation, that is all you need.
Boise State:
I was VERY impressed with the defensive effort. Oregon, while not doing a great job offensively last night, will turn out to be one of the better offensive units in the country this season. Boise State did not allow a FIRST DOWN until midway through the 3rd quarter. They were fast, they were laying licks on people, and they were getting penetration upfront. They made it look like a tune-up game against a I-AA offense. Not only were they stout early, but they played great late in the 3rd and in the 4th when they were put in 3 or 4 consecutive bad situations, forcing turnovers, turnover on down, and punt.
Offensively (and on special teams), Boise State left a lot of points on the field. 2 missed field goals and a botched snap on a field goal attempt left 9 potential points. A couple of turnovers and the stalling of a couple of promising drives is also a little disconcerting, particular when the O is a fairly veteran group. With that said, they dominated an Oregon defensive front that is bigger and more talented than anyone else the Broncos see all year (except maybe Hawaii on the bigger part). Kellen Moore looked comfortable in the pocket and under pressure. He did make one or two fairly bad decisions on throws and nearly threw a bad interception while under pressure (but the Oregon defender whiffed on the ball), but it was a good game. I think with another game or two under the belt, they'll be fine there. As with the defense, I was very impressed with the speed on the perimeter and the size upfront. They may not be as deep as some top 10 teams, but their top 44 are very comparable to top 10 teams not in the top 5...
Outlook for Boise State is good. This is the bad year for the conference schedule though as they have to travel to Fresno State in two weeks for a Friday night ESPN game and to Hawaii later in the year. I see those two games as the biggest obstacles between Boise State and another undefeated season. I think Fresno State is the most likely game they'll drop, but I don't see them dropping two games. The D looks too good, and the O will come around like Boise State's O always does. They had better get their kicking game figured out as that WILL matter one of these games.
That did not look like an offense that can score with any team in the country. I think they were too focused on putting little brother in his place instead of going out trying to win a football game. They had better get their heads on straight if they are going to compete in the Pac 10 or beat Utah here in two weeks. Don't take the Bellotti approach and try to show your superiority as a BCS team. You aren't better just because your conference is better! Prove it on the field!
Defensively they did OK, considering what the score COULD have been. However, there were a lot of miscues by Boise State's O and special teams. At least SOME of that is attributable to Oregon. They weren't able to stop the run on 1st down. They had pretty soft coverage on 3rd down. They couldn't get consistent pressure on the QB and when they did, Kellen Moore was able to sidestep it.
Offensively it was bad, very bad. Missing open receivers, dropped balls, no push upfront on running plays, etc. Again, they thought they were faster, tougher, more talented, but they weren't. While Boise State may not have the 3 or 4-deep that Oregon does, they have a similar (or better) 2-deep. In a one-game situation, that is all you need.
Boise State:
I was VERY impressed with the defensive effort. Oregon, while not doing a great job offensively last night, will turn out to be one of the better offensive units in the country this season. Boise State did not allow a FIRST DOWN until midway through the 3rd quarter. They were fast, they were laying licks on people, and they were getting penetration upfront. They made it look like a tune-up game against a I-AA offense. Not only were they stout early, but they played great late in the 3rd and in the 4th when they were put in 3 or 4 consecutive bad situations, forcing turnovers, turnover on down, and punt.
Offensively (and on special teams), Boise State left a lot of points on the field. 2 missed field goals and a botched snap on a field goal attempt left 9 potential points. A couple of turnovers and the stalling of a couple of promising drives is also a little disconcerting, particular when the O is a fairly veteran group. With that said, they dominated an Oregon defensive front that is bigger and more talented than anyone else the Broncos see all year (except maybe Hawaii on the bigger part). Kellen Moore looked comfortable in the pocket and under pressure. He did make one or two fairly bad decisions on throws and nearly threw a bad interception while under pressure (but the Oregon defender whiffed on the ball), but it was a good game. I think with another game or two under the belt, they'll be fine there. As with the defense, I was very impressed with the speed on the perimeter and the size upfront. They may not be as deep as some top 10 teams, but their top 44 are very comparable to top 10 teams not in the top 5...
Outlook for Boise State is good. This is the bad year for the conference schedule though as they have to travel to Fresno State in two weeks for a Friday night ESPN game and to Hawaii later in the year. I see those two games as the biggest obstacles between Boise State and another undefeated season. I think Fresno State is the most likely game they'll drop, but I don't see them dropping two games. The D looks too good, and the O will come around like Boise State's O always does. They had better get their kicking game figured out as that WILL matter one of these games.
Thursday, September 3, 2009
Utah State @ Utah
So I just got done watching the Utah State Aggies put up a noble effort against the Utah Utes. A few thoughts about the game:
Utah State: they are going to be a good WAC team. The offense has some play makers. They are going to score some points when they see WAC defenses. The passing game could use some work as Diondre Borel missed a few open receivers. The O-Line did a good job keeping the blitzing Utah defense off the QB, but the Ute D-line knocked down a lot of passes. Again though, Utah has a better D than pretty much anybody else on the Aggies' schedule. Look at where Utah State is RIGHT NOW: last year they lost AT HOME to Utah 58-10. To start this year, they went on the road to Utah, who is coming off a 13-0 and #2 finish, the place was rocking, and they still played a respectable game. They got a little desperate in the 4th, otherwise the final score would have been closer.
Defensively, it was pretty clear they don't have the horses to compete with the big boys. They couldn't get to the QB, they couldn't cover anybody, and they couldn't figure out the Wildcat formation. With that said, they did as well as they could with the personnel they have. They just don't have the personnel to compete with an upper echelon Mountain West team. But, they don't have to. They only have to compete with Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii.
I give Gary Anderson an A- in his first game. They couldn't capitalize on a Ute turnover early, and I think that is ultimately what turned the tide off the game and cost it. With USU up 3-0, Utah fumbled on its own 30-yard line. The offense went backwards and they missed a long field goal. Utah threw a 65-yard TD on the next play. Anyway, enough about the Aggies. I still think they can get to 6 wins.
Utah: I was looking for a few things today, here they are.
How would the new coordinators do in their first game? The offense came out with a great game plan and executed it perfectly early in the game. They did not allow new QB Cain to make decisions: they stuck with screens, the short passing game, and a power run game. The second half, however, left a lot to be desired on that side of the ball. Defensively, they showed a propensity to give up the big play, but an overall solid effort. I would expect nothing less from Kalani Sitake, a former BYU player. They had a nice mix of blitzes and had some good (sometimes a little too good!) coverage. Good job game-planning. They need to make better halftime adjustments though. This was Utah State, they will play at least 8 teams that are better coached AND have better personnel. They did well for their first game.
How would Terrence Cain's decision making be his first DI game? Well, really, he didn't have to make many decisions because of the gameplan. He did NOT go through reads, he looked at one receiver, maybe 2, and then tried to tuck and run. He did well in the short game, but it's clear HE isn't going to make big plays with his arm: it's up to his receivers to make yards after the catch. When he did have to make decisions (which really was just a handful of times), he got happy feet or took sacks. He was able to escape pressure once and make a positive play, but, overall, there is room for improvement.
Would Utah be able to drive the ball down the field? The answer here is an emphatic NO! All of their scores came on big plays made after the catch. While it is nice to know you have big-play potential, you HAVE to be able to drive the ball, eat up some clock, when you are playing Oregon, TCU, BYU, and even UNLV, Air Force, and CSU. Every drive stalled when they had to take it a few yards at a time.
Would they be able to throw the ball downfield? Again here, emphatic NO. I counted 7 passes thrown more than 10 yards down the field and only one completion. And this was Utah State. The O-line did phenomenal, but they had a HUGE size advantage. They picked up blitzes extremely well, especially RB Matt Asiata. When the protection is that good, you have to be able to go downfield, if nothing else, to keep the defense honest. The San Jose State D will be a good test next week before the trip to Autzen in week 3.
Overall, I still need to see more, particularly offensively, from the Utes. Terrence Cain will probably be allowed to make more decisions with each passing week, but he'll need to do better than he did today. The D needs to shore up a little bit up the middle in the running game. They also didn't hold contain on passing plays and the mobile QB was able to move outside the pocket and make plays. They need to get more pressure on the QB. Their DBs are good coverage guys, but you can't expect them to cover for 5-8 seconds every play. Koa Misi will be back at DE to bring it off the edge next week. That should make a difference. Good game, but they must improve if they expect to win at Autzen. Or even San Jose. I think they will improve, and I look forward to seeing how they use that size and speed at Oregon. Still not convinced they can pull out a close game on the road, like they did twice last year. We'll see.
Utah State: they are going to be a good WAC team. The offense has some play makers. They are going to score some points when they see WAC defenses. The passing game could use some work as Diondre Borel missed a few open receivers. The O-Line did a good job keeping the blitzing Utah defense off the QB, but the Ute D-line knocked down a lot of passes. Again though, Utah has a better D than pretty much anybody else on the Aggies' schedule. Look at where Utah State is RIGHT NOW: last year they lost AT HOME to Utah 58-10. To start this year, they went on the road to Utah, who is coming off a 13-0 and #2 finish, the place was rocking, and they still played a respectable game. They got a little desperate in the 4th, otherwise the final score would have been closer.
Defensively, it was pretty clear they don't have the horses to compete with the big boys. They couldn't get to the QB, they couldn't cover anybody, and they couldn't figure out the Wildcat formation. With that said, they did as well as they could with the personnel they have. They just don't have the personnel to compete with an upper echelon Mountain West team. But, they don't have to. They only have to compete with Boise State, Fresno State, Nevada, and Hawaii.
I give Gary Anderson an A- in his first game. They couldn't capitalize on a Ute turnover early, and I think that is ultimately what turned the tide off the game and cost it. With USU up 3-0, Utah fumbled on its own 30-yard line. The offense went backwards and they missed a long field goal. Utah threw a 65-yard TD on the next play. Anyway, enough about the Aggies. I still think they can get to 6 wins.
Utah: I was looking for a few things today, here they are.
How would the new coordinators do in their first game? The offense came out with a great game plan and executed it perfectly early in the game. They did not allow new QB Cain to make decisions: they stuck with screens, the short passing game, and a power run game. The second half, however, left a lot to be desired on that side of the ball. Defensively, they showed a propensity to give up the big play, but an overall solid effort. I would expect nothing less from Kalani Sitake, a former BYU player. They had a nice mix of blitzes and had some good (sometimes a little too good!) coverage. Good job game-planning. They need to make better halftime adjustments though. This was Utah State, they will play at least 8 teams that are better coached AND have better personnel. They did well for their first game.
How would Terrence Cain's decision making be his first DI game? Well, really, he didn't have to make many decisions because of the gameplan. He did NOT go through reads, he looked at one receiver, maybe 2, and then tried to tuck and run. He did well in the short game, but it's clear HE isn't going to make big plays with his arm: it's up to his receivers to make yards after the catch. When he did have to make decisions (which really was just a handful of times), he got happy feet or took sacks. He was able to escape pressure once and make a positive play, but, overall, there is room for improvement.
Would Utah be able to drive the ball down the field? The answer here is an emphatic NO! All of their scores came on big plays made after the catch. While it is nice to know you have big-play potential, you HAVE to be able to drive the ball, eat up some clock, when you are playing Oregon, TCU, BYU, and even UNLV, Air Force, and CSU. Every drive stalled when they had to take it a few yards at a time.
Would they be able to throw the ball downfield? Again here, emphatic NO. I counted 7 passes thrown more than 10 yards down the field and only one completion. And this was Utah State. The O-line did phenomenal, but they had a HUGE size advantage. They picked up blitzes extremely well, especially RB Matt Asiata. When the protection is that good, you have to be able to go downfield, if nothing else, to keep the defense honest. The San Jose State D will be a good test next week before the trip to Autzen in week 3.
Overall, I still need to see more, particularly offensively, from the Utes. Terrence Cain will probably be allowed to make more decisions with each passing week, but he'll need to do better than he did today. The D needs to shore up a little bit up the middle in the running game. They also didn't hold contain on passing plays and the mobile QB was able to move outside the pocket and make plays. They need to get more pressure on the QB. Their DBs are good coverage guys, but you can't expect them to cover for 5-8 seconds every play. Koa Misi will be back at DE to bring it off the edge next week. That should make a difference. Good game, but they must improve if they expect to win at Autzen. Or even San Jose. I think they will improve, and I look forward to seeing how they use that size and speed at Oregon. Still not convinced they can pull out a close game on the road, like they did twice last year. We'll see.
Countdown complete: 65th prediction
#1: Florida will have the better D. Texas will have the better O. McCoy wins the Heisman. Tebow wins the SEC. In the end, it is defense that wins championships: same formula as last year. If Florida can survive, Georgia, @LSU, and the SEC title game (which I think will be a more difficult road this year than last), they will win the National Championship. If Texas plays ANYBODY but Florida though, they will win it all. Florida has too much defense, too much Tebow, and Urban Meyer is the BEST coach in the game right now. Final rankings: Florida #1, USC #2, Texas #3.
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
65 predictions, #2
Well, tomorrow starts the college football season. It's about time!
#2: As 1-loss Florida takes on 2-(or 3-)loss Alabama in the SEC title game, a stake in the National Championship is on the line. Undefeated (or maybe 1-loss) Texas is in, assuming they win the Big 12 Title game. USC is knocking on the door with 1 loss as well. If Penn State is undefeated they are in the discussion as well (but I got them at 11-1, so I think they are out).
Florida with a win, makes it. With a loss, we get a Texas-USC Rose Bowl rematch. But that game would never live up to the last one, with Vince Young and the Longhorns edging out Matt Leinart and the Trojans, so I got to go with Florida beating Alabama in the SEC Title game.
I know it's a lame pick, b/c they are 1-2 right now, but I've gone through the schedules and Florida winning the SEC, even with 1 loss, gets them to the NC. Texas winning the Big 12 with 1 or fewer losses gets them there as well. Of course, if there are undefeated teams from BCS conferences and UT/UF each have a loss, the discussion changes, but I see USC, Ohio State, Penn State, and Va Tech with at least 1 loss apiece.
#2: As 1-loss Florida takes on 2-(or 3-)loss Alabama in the SEC title game, a stake in the National Championship is on the line. Undefeated (or maybe 1-loss) Texas is in, assuming they win the Big 12 Title game. USC is knocking on the door with 1 loss as well. If Penn State is undefeated they are in the discussion as well (but I got them at 11-1, so I think they are out).
Florida with a win, makes it. With a loss, we get a Texas-USC Rose Bowl rematch. But that game would never live up to the last one, with Vince Young and the Longhorns edging out Matt Leinart and the Trojans, so I got to go with Florida beating Alabama in the SEC Title game.
I know it's a lame pick, b/c they are 1-2 right now, but I've gone through the schedules and Florida winning the SEC, even with 1 loss, gets them to the NC. Texas winning the Big 12 with 1 or fewer losses gets them there as well. Of course, if there are undefeated teams from BCS conferences and UT/UF each have a loss, the discussion changes, but I see USC, Ohio State, Penn State, and Va Tech with at least 1 loss apiece.
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
65 predictions, #6-3
#6: MAC Championship Game, worst conference with a Championship Game!
Central Michigan over Buffalo, no repeat for Buffalo, as the Chippewas will be tougher and more battle-tested than Ball State was last year.
#5: Conference USA Championship Game, this will actually be a game worth watching, high-flying Tulsa Golden Hurricane offense against a stout, ACC/Big East beatin' ECU Pirate defense.
Tulsa over East Carolina, offense still reigns supreme in college football.
#4: ACC, battle of Hall of Fame coaches: Bobby Bowden vs. Frank Beamer.
Virginia Tech over Florida State, it's a lot tougher to recover after playing rival Florida than it is after playing rival Virginia.
#3: Big 12, can Nebraska bring the title back to Lincoln, finally? Nope. But at least someone besides Oklahoma can add a trophy to the case.
Texas over Nebraska, this game helps McCoy's Heisman resume and puts THE University of Texas in the National Championship Game. Hook 'Em.
Central Michigan over Buffalo, no repeat for Buffalo, as the Chippewas will be tougher and more battle-tested than Ball State was last year.
#5: Conference USA Championship Game, this will actually be a game worth watching, high-flying Tulsa Golden Hurricane offense against a stout, ACC/Big East beatin' ECU Pirate defense.
Tulsa over East Carolina, offense still reigns supreme in college football.
#4: ACC, battle of Hall of Fame coaches: Bobby Bowden vs. Frank Beamer.
Virginia Tech over Florida State, it's a lot tougher to recover after playing rival Florida than it is after playing rival Virginia.
#3: Big 12, can Nebraska bring the title back to Lincoln, finally? Nope. But at least someone besides Oklahoma can add a trophy to the case.
Texas over Nebraska, this game helps McCoy's Heisman resume and puts THE University of Texas in the National Championship Game. Hook 'Em.
65 predictions, #9-7
#9: Pac 10 (I think the Pac 10 is quite a bit stronger this year than last, maybe even enough to keep a 1-loss USC team in the NC discussion with the other 1-loss teams: as opposed to last year where they were relegated to the back of the bus)
1: USC
2: Oregon (by virtue of a win at home over USC on Halloween the Ducks get the title of Top Dwarf)
3: California
4: Oregon State
5: Stanford
6: UCLA
7: Arizona State
8: Washington
9: Arizona
10: Washington State
#8: SEC East (number 5 and 6 are still pretty solid teams)
1: Florida
2: Georgia
3: Tennessee
4: South Carolina
5: Vanderbilt
6: Kentucky
#7: Big 12 South (I'll call this the toughest division in the country: UT/OU as strong or stronger than UF and GA, OK State and Tech over Tennessee and South Carolina, though Vandy and Kentucky currently provide more competition than Baylor and A&M)
1: Texas
2: Oklahoma
3: OK State
4: Tech
5: Texas A&M
6: Baylor
If Baylor can manage to upset OK State at home on October 24, I would have a 4-way tie for 3rd in the division: no idea how Big 12 breaks that tie (if at all)
MAC, C-USA, ACC and Big 12 Conference Championship games coming soon. SEC championship game coming tomorrow (since the SEC is a tougher league than the Big 12, in aggregate). My picks for the National Championship on Thursday: the start of the college football season!
1: USC
2: Oregon (by virtue of a win at home over USC on Halloween the Ducks get the title of Top Dwarf)
3: California
4: Oregon State
5: Stanford
6: UCLA
7: Arizona State
8: Washington
9: Arizona
10: Washington State
#8: SEC East (number 5 and 6 are still pretty solid teams)
1: Florida
2: Georgia
3: Tennessee
4: South Carolina
5: Vanderbilt
6: Kentucky
#7: Big 12 South (I'll call this the toughest division in the country: UT/OU as strong or stronger than UF and GA, OK State and Tech over Tennessee and South Carolina, though Vandy and Kentucky currently provide more competition than Baylor and A&M)
1: Texas
2: Oklahoma
3: OK State
4: Tech
5: Texas A&M
6: Baylor
If Baylor can manage to upset OK State at home on October 24, I would have a 4-way tie for 3rd in the division: no idea how Big 12 breaks that tie (if at all)
MAC, C-USA, ACC and Big 12 Conference Championship games coming soon. SEC championship game coming tomorrow (since the SEC is a tougher league than the Big 12, in aggregate). My picks for the National Championship on Thursday: the start of the college football season!
65 predictions, #10 SEC West
This division again highlights the imbalance that occurs with a 12-team conference. In the battle for 2nd place in the SEC West, Ole Miss does not have to play either Florida or Georgia (the two best in the East) while LSU has to play both, one on the road. LSU is quietly playing one of the more difficult schedules in the country. Tough to say that with Louisiana-Lafayette, Tulane, and Louisiana Tech on the schedule, but they play road games against 3 teams in the preseason top 10, and play the defending champ and #1 team in the country at home. Traveling to Washington will look like a decent game by season's end as well. All this from a team that usually plays 8 home games.
1: Alabama (yeah, not much else happening in the division this year, so we'll just go ahead and give them the top slot despite what they lost on O: great defense though!)
2: Ole Miss (nice-looking schedule, but they just aren't good enough to win road games consistently in this league: 2 league losses for them)
3: LSU (TOUGH conference schedule, and I'm really not sold on Les Miles' ability to coach a consistent winner: he won with Saban's players)
4: Arkansas (it must kill Razorback fans to see Houston Nutt consistently finishing above them in the standings, especially at Ole Miss!)
5: Auburn (if they can win at Arkansas, they'll move up to #4, but I have ZERO confidence in Gene Chizik down there: he couldn't make Iowa State competitive in a slumping Big 12 North, how is he going to make Auburn competitive in a down SEC West?)
6: Mississippi State (I'll miss Sly Croom, he did good things for a dwindling MSU program: the Bulldogs will miss him this year too as they rack up 8 or 9 losses)
1: Alabama (yeah, not much else happening in the division this year, so we'll just go ahead and give them the top slot despite what they lost on O: great defense though!)
2: Ole Miss (nice-looking schedule, but they just aren't good enough to win road games consistently in this league: 2 league losses for them)
3: LSU (TOUGH conference schedule, and I'm really not sold on Les Miles' ability to coach a consistent winner: he won with Saban's players)
4: Arkansas (it must kill Razorback fans to see Houston Nutt consistently finishing above them in the standings, especially at Ole Miss!)
5: Auburn (if they can win at Arkansas, they'll move up to #4, but I have ZERO confidence in Gene Chizik down there: he couldn't make Iowa State competitive in a slumping Big 12 North, how is he going to make Auburn competitive in a down SEC West?)
6: Mississippi State (I'll miss Sly Croom, he did good things for a dwindling MSU program: the Bulldogs will miss him this year too as they rack up 8 or 9 losses)
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