I had a couple of posts I MEANT to do during this little run. I'll briefly recap what you could have expected from me over the past week and a half:
Prior to Washington game: for those of you not planning on watching or attending this game, I give you one reason why you should. Brandon Davies. This was potentially his final game as a Cougar and after what he went through his sophomore year, for him to return to BYU shows a lot of character and you should have watched this game, if for no other reason than to thank him for coming back when it would have been easier for him to leave.
After the Washington game: with Mercer up next, BYU could actually make a push here. They seem to be playing a lot more as a team. Carlino sure got his act together in the second half and looks like the player many expected him to be all year. If he can play like that in the coming game or games, BYU has a shot to make noise (if you can call an NIT run "noise").
Prior to Southern Miss game: this was a nice little run. Now BYU has to prove they can do it on the road against a good team. I think this was a great experience, especially for the young guys who will be expected to contribute next season. They needed an opportunity to play more than a one-and-done situation and they got it. With that said, I assumed they would lose by double digits and would have advised everyone to just watch with lower stress levels.
Now: TOUGH matchup ahead. But BYU has a lot of confidence now, a lot more than they had in the first meeting against Baylor. If they can deal with the increased athleticism and find a way to keep Heslip from hitting a schwack of threes, maybe they can keep it close enough to make the Final.
Still, I am proud of what the team has done. They could have mailed it in like other teams in the NIT (and like it looked like they did in February) but they banded together and made the most of their opportunity. They clearly were not an NCAA Tournament team, as I pointed out over and over again this season, but they were an NIT team and I like that they put in the effort, got the wins, and even did it on the road against a team that many thought got snubbed in the NCAA Tournament.
With the experience for the younger players and some hope with a reasonably good crop of incoming players, there is a chance for them to succeed on a slightly higher level next year. They'll have to figure out how to rebound, particularly if Kaufusi does not rejoin the team and/or if Collinsworth doesn't come home in great shape, but they should be able to play their way onto the NCAA Tournament bubble. Go Cougars!
Thursday, March 28, 2013
Sunday, March 17, 2013
Rules to Filling Out Your Bracket, 2013
1. Never, ever, ever, ever listen to me on a prediction. If I predict a double-digit seed to go Sweet Sixteen, pick them to lose first round. Any 1 or 2 that I say won't make Elite Eight, you may want to consider having them win it all. You have a better chance of being right. I mocked my wife for picking Kansas over Memphis in the Championship game a few years back stating, and I quote, "those two teams NEVER make it as far as they are supposed to. You are guaranteed to lose both title game teams the opening weekend." One Mario's Miracle later, she wins the pool, I lose. Badly. Two years ago, it was UConn, she wins, I'm in the bottom half of a pool with 75 people...thankfully for me, she's won back all the money that I've wasted with my entries into pools...
2. Which brings me to my next point: don't enter a pool with your wife. She will beat you. And she won't ever let you forget it. My wife filled out her first bracket 6 years ago. I think I've beaten her once since, but I might be overestimating my accomplishments.
3. Don't be boring. Every year, there is at least one Cinderella, and often times 2 or 3 teams make runs far exceeding their seed. Try to pick at least one of them! HINT: it is usually not the 5/12 or 4/13 that the "experts" pick. When Butler lost to Duke as a 5-seed in the title game a few years back, ESPN was all about 12-seed UTEP upsetting the Bulldogs in the first round matchup!
4. Overthinking will kill your bracket. The team that got hot late doesn't necessarily stay hot in the NCAA tournament. The team with the most top 50 RPI wins doesn't necessarily do well in the tourney. In short, there is no secret formula that will help you. Ken Pomeroy, Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, none of them know any better than anyone else. March Madness is madness. There is no rhyme or reason to it. Just pick with your gut and enjoy the moment.
5. Detach yourself from all loyalties or disloyalties. My bracket is usually shot early b/c I pick Ohio State, Sparty, or North Carolina to lose early. Guess what: the teams you hate aren't overrated EVERY year...Conversely, the teams you love aren't underseeded every year. Sometimes your second-favorite team (since BYU won't be in the field) really deserved that 11-seed and they will lose...one might say it's more fun to pick your team when they are in it. Trust me, it's more fun to have a bracket that's doing well!
Have fun picking your brackets this week! Enjoy the festivities!
2. Which brings me to my next point: don't enter a pool with your wife. She will beat you. And she won't ever let you forget it. My wife filled out her first bracket 6 years ago. I think I've beaten her once since, but I might be overestimating my accomplishments.
3. Don't be boring. Every year, there is at least one Cinderella, and often times 2 or 3 teams make runs far exceeding their seed. Try to pick at least one of them! HINT: it is usually not the 5/12 or 4/13 that the "experts" pick. When Butler lost to Duke as a 5-seed in the title game a few years back, ESPN was all about 12-seed UTEP upsetting the Bulldogs in the first round matchup!
4. Overthinking will kill your bracket. The team that got hot late doesn't necessarily stay hot in the NCAA tournament. The team with the most top 50 RPI wins doesn't necessarily do well in the tourney. In short, there is no secret formula that will help you. Ken Pomeroy, Joe Lunardi, Jerry Palm, Dick Vitale, Digger Phelps, none of them know any better than anyone else. March Madness is madness. There is no rhyme or reason to it. Just pick with your gut and enjoy the moment.
5. Detach yourself from all loyalties or disloyalties. My bracket is usually shot early b/c I pick Ohio State, Sparty, or North Carolina to lose early. Guess what: the teams you hate aren't overrated EVERY year...Conversely, the teams you love aren't underseeded every year. Sometimes your second-favorite team (since BYU won't be in the field) really deserved that 11-seed and they will lose...one might say it's more fun to pick your team when they are in it. Trust me, it's more fun to have a bracket that's doing well!
Have fun picking your brackets this week! Enjoy the festivities!
Sunday, March 10, 2013
NIT Spots Taken, 3/10/2013
For those BYU fans interested to see where the Cougars might end up in the NIT bracket with their pathetic February and March effort, here's a list of "automatic" bids in the 32-team NIT that have already been taken. Any regular season conference champion that does not make the NCAA Tournament automatically receives a bid to the NIT. So if the regular season champion in a one-bid league doesn't win the conference tournament, they go to the NIT. Currently, that list includes the following:
Stony Brook (America East)
Mercer (Atlantic Sun)
Charleston Southern (Big South)
Niagara (MAAC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt: possible/likely they make NCAA tournament)
Generally this list tops out at about 10 automatic NIT bids, though this is 6 out of 12 possible thus far (with only 1 team winning conference tourney thus far, the other regular season champs just have not been eliminated yet), so maybe this season it is might be more like 12. Certainly there isn't much concern of BYU entirely missing the NIT field, and these teams will not impact BYU's seeding.
I figure there are roughly 12-16 teams ahead of BYU in the NIT pool in terms of seeding right now, depending on how many bid stealers there are in conference tournaments. BYU's only chance of winning a game is that that they are the 16th team or better in NIT seeding. Without a home game (i.e. a 4-seed or better), they won't win a game. Though I believe even at home as a 3- or 4-seed, they are likely to lose. I'm guessing they get a 5-seed (maybe a 6) and start out on the road against a BCS conference foe like Tennessee or Stanford. Maybe they end up playing a more local non-BCS team (Wyoming or Denver perhaps), and maybe even get that game at home. The NIT has to consider that a BYU home game generates more excitement for the NIT than a BYU road game, and they have been STRUGGLING to get any kind of enthusiasm for their tourney for a few years now...
I remember my sophomore year at the Y, when BYU students and fans hoped the Cougars were good enough for an NIT home game. Things have changed a lot for the better these past 9 years: we are all extremely disappointed at this season's results...yet, the possibility still exists of an NIT home game. Thank you, Dave Rose, for raising our "normal" expectations out of the dark abyss in which we currently (and hopefully briefly) dwell.
Stony Brook (America East)
Mercer (Atlantic Sun)
Charleston Southern (Big South)
Niagara (MAAC)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Middle Tennessee State (Sun Belt: possible/likely they make NCAA tournament)
Generally this list tops out at about 10 automatic NIT bids, though this is 6 out of 12 possible thus far (with only 1 team winning conference tourney thus far, the other regular season champs just have not been eliminated yet), so maybe this season it is might be more like 12. Certainly there isn't much concern of BYU entirely missing the NIT field, and these teams will not impact BYU's seeding.
I figure there are roughly 12-16 teams ahead of BYU in the NIT pool in terms of seeding right now, depending on how many bid stealers there are in conference tournaments. BYU's only chance of winning a game is that that they are the 16th team or better in NIT seeding. Without a home game (i.e. a 4-seed or better), they won't win a game. Though I believe even at home as a 3- or 4-seed, they are likely to lose. I'm guessing they get a 5-seed (maybe a 6) and start out on the road against a BCS conference foe like Tennessee or Stanford. Maybe they end up playing a more local non-BCS team (Wyoming or Denver perhaps), and maybe even get that game at home. The NIT has to consider that a BYU home game generates more excitement for the NIT than a BYU road game, and they have been STRUGGLING to get any kind of enthusiasm for their tourney for a few years now...
I remember my sophomore year at the Y, when BYU students and fans hoped the Cougars were good enough for an NIT home game. Things have changed a lot for the better these past 9 years: we are all extremely disappointed at this season's results...yet, the possibility still exists of an NIT home game. Thank you, Dave Rose, for raising our "normal" expectations out of the dark abyss in which we currently (and hopefully briefly) dwell.
Saturday, March 9, 2013
3/9/2013: Fitting End
BYU struggles with consistency (again) and loses to an inferior team (again). That was BYU this season. BYU bows out of the WCC tournament earlier than it should have and after only one game, becoming the first 3-seed to do so under the bye/double-bye format of WCC Tourney. This shouldn't come as a surprise, this has been typical of BYU since the late 1980's.
What really plagued BYU in close games shone through clearly again tonight: cannot get a stop down the stretch and can't ever make a basket if/when they have a lead late. They made a couple of big shots to take leads, but they never could make a shot with a 1-point lead to stretch it. They may have gotten one stop when they needed it, but they never seemed to get two in a row in the last 4 minutes.
BYU had some good players in Davies and Haws, but, in the end, there just wasn't anything around them. Carlino continues to be inconsistent, at best, or just bad most of the time, at worst. Zylstra had no business logging the minutes he did, but there just wasn't much to play in his place (though I would argue there were several other lineup possibilities that would have been better).
Anyway, BYU should be around a 4-5 seed in the NIT. 9 days from now, they'll find out if they get a home game or not...I don't think it's going to matter with this group either way. They look like a one and done even in the NIT. Any team that is good enough to make the NIT is good enough to beat this current lineup of Cougars. BYU went 0-7 against NCAA Tournament-bound teams. They went 1-2 against likely NIT-bound teams (assuming Santa Clara doesn't make the NIT), with the lone win coming against the loser of the Big Sky Championship Game Montana/Weber State.
I'd like to say the future looks bright, but they lose three starters and probably won't get Bronson Kaufusi back next season. They lose 3 senior starters to replace with freshmen and JC transfers. Besides Davies, I don't feel Zylstra was ever any good and Cusick certainly wasn't very good THIS year, but still, they must not have had anyone on the roster that was better, and there isn't anyone coming in that can be absolutely counted on to fill those voids.
On a brighter note: Spring Football has started...
What really plagued BYU in close games shone through clearly again tonight: cannot get a stop down the stretch and can't ever make a basket if/when they have a lead late. They made a couple of big shots to take leads, but they never could make a shot with a 1-point lead to stretch it. They may have gotten one stop when they needed it, but they never seemed to get two in a row in the last 4 minutes.
BYU had some good players in Davies and Haws, but, in the end, there just wasn't anything around them. Carlino continues to be inconsistent, at best, or just bad most of the time, at worst. Zylstra had no business logging the minutes he did, but there just wasn't much to play in his place (though I would argue there were several other lineup possibilities that would have been better).
Anyway, BYU should be around a 4-5 seed in the NIT. 9 days from now, they'll find out if they get a home game or not...I don't think it's going to matter with this group either way. They look like a one and done even in the NIT. Any team that is good enough to make the NIT is good enough to beat this current lineup of Cougars. BYU went 0-7 against NCAA Tournament-bound teams. They went 1-2 against likely NIT-bound teams (assuming Santa Clara doesn't make the NIT), with the lone win coming against the loser of the Big Sky Championship Game Montana/Weber State.
I'd like to say the future looks bright, but they lose three starters and probably won't get Bronson Kaufusi back next season. They lose 3 senior starters to replace with freshmen and JC transfers. Besides Davies, I don't feel Zylstra was ever any good and Cusick certainly wasn't very good THIS year, but still, they must not have had anyone on the roster that was better, and there isn't anyone coming in that can be absolutely counted on to fill those voids.
On a brighter note: Spring Football has started...
Wednesday, March 6, 2013
WCC Tourney Thoughts
The WCC Tourney is officially underway. I don't expect the 8/9 winner to give San Francisco a whole lot of trouble tomorrow night. Both teams are kind of scrappy but just not very good. The Dons are a "live by the three die by the three" type of team, so I suppose it's possible LMU could take them down. Portland has no shot though...the winner of San Francisco-LMU/Portland gets Santa Clara on Friday night.
Looking ahead to the other first round game USD-Pepperdine (winner plays BYU): San Diego could potentially be a surprise team in the tourney. They were very streaky during the season, and March is here: the ultimate rewarder of streaky. They are a guard-oriented team but have a couple of bigs that are capable of controlling games for (very) brief stretches. Pepperdine is a lightweight, even for a 7-seed in the WCC Tourney. Johnny Dee really is one of those guys that can push USD to the Semis or even the Finals single-handedly. He only has 5 games scoring over 20 points, but I imagine he'll have at least two more of those in the WCC Tourney.
Peering into the Quarters:
I think Santa Clara is good for a win here, almost regardless of who they match up against. Their biggest problem: they didn't beat ANYBODY in the WCC, or in the non-conference really, excluding one win at St. Louis early in the year. They went 0-6 against the "Big Three" and were the only team in the WCC to lose to Loyola Marymount. USF could give them some trouble, particularly b/c 3-point shooting teams always seem to shoot the three better their second game of tournaments.
I am curious to see the USD-BYU matchup. I wouldn't be surprised a bit to see BYU get shell-shocked early, and, if Davies is in foul trouble (again), it might be tough for them to climb out. BYU doesn't seem to have a tournament mindset, generally speaking, which is why it has been 11 years since BYU's last tournament championship, in spite of a bunch of regular season titles over that period. However, Carlino is a little different than BYU's typical PG. He can play like a Tournament Champion PG...it's just been so long since he's done it, I wouldn't count on it!
Looking Ahead to the Semis:
The Zags and St. Mary's are clearly the class of the league and they await the survivors in the Semis on Saturday. I think the advantages of the double-bye can be disadvantages. In March, I think it's a slight advantage to play a game against an inferior opponent before getting tested (which may also accurately describe Gonzaga's Semifinal game more than the Quarterfinal game for Santa Clara). With Gonzaga, they don't really have anything to play for. They are in the NCAA tournament as a 1 or 2-seed. I can't imagine them tanking it in the Final, so if they are going to go down, it would have to be here. St. Mary's won't have any trouble advancing against whomever opposes them on Saturday. BYU hoops plays against St. Mary's like BYU Football plays against Utah: beneath their "privileges."
My Finals Prediction:
Gonzaga should win if they survive Saturday night. St. Mary's should win if the Zags get upset. It is March and I'd love to predict a major upset. The only two teams that are at all tempting to pick are San Francisco and BYU. I just don't trust USF to beat Gonzaga for a third win in three days, even with the curse of #1 resting on Gonzaga and the benefit of two back-against-the-wall games for USF. They'd have to be really on from the outside for at least the second time in the tournament. BYU's traditonal tournament failure makes it tough to pick them, especially knowing they would have to beat USD first, then need to find anything resembling mental fortitude against St. Mary's, and then trying to figure out how to compete against Gonzaga with WCC refs that treat Olynyk like he's LeBron/Kobe/MJ. However, one might say BYU underachieved this season, and, with a guard-oriented attack, they are built for tournament success. Their D is too bad and Delgado and Winder (their two best defenders) can't possibly see the floor enough b/c BYU can't afford to have them on the offensive end of the floor. BYU just doesn't have enough players that know what to do on both ends of the court! Winder and Delgado can play D and hit wide open spot-up threes. Ambrosino is zero D and a very good, but streaky, shooter. Sharp is all D/hustle and no O (unless he's wide open under the basket). Austin can only score from one place on the floor and on D he's good for a foul or a charge on almost every possession, meaning he can't ever be counted on for meaningful minutes.
My final answer: Gonzaga...
Looking ahead to the other first round game USD-Pepperdine (winner plays BYU): San Diego could potentially be a surprise team in the tourney. They were very streaky during the season, and March is here: the ultimate rewarder of streaky. They are a guard-oriented team but have a couple of bigs that are capable of controlling games for (very) brief stretches. Pepperdine is a lightweight, even for a 7-seed in the WCC Tourney. Johnny Dee really is one of those guys that can push USD to the Semis or even the Finals single-handedly. He only has 5 games scoring over 20 points, but I imagine he'll have at least two more of those in the WCC Tourney.
Peering into the Quarters:
I think Santa Clara is good for a win here, almost regardless of who they match up against. Their biggest problem: they didn't beat ANYBODY in the WCC, or in the non-conference really, excluding one win at St. Louis early in the year. They went 0-6 against the "Big Three" and were the only team in the WCC to lose to Loyola Marymount. USF could give them some trouble, particularly b/c 3-point shooting teams always seem to shoot the three better their second game of tournaments.
I am curious to see the USD-BYU matchup. I wouldn't be surprised a bit to see BYU get shell-shocked early, and, if Davies is in foul trouble (again), it might be tough for them to climb out. BYU doesn't seem to have a tournament mindset, generally speaking, which is why it has been 11 years since BYU's last tournament championship, in spite of a bunch of regular season titles over that period. However, Carlino is a little different than BYU's typical PG. He can play like a Tournament Champion PG...it's just been so long since he's done it, I wouldn't count on it!
Looking Ahead to the Semis:
The Zags and St. Mary's are clearly the class of the league and they await the survivors in the Semis on Saturday. I think the advantages of the double-bye can be disadvantages. In March, I think it's a slight advantage to play a game against an inferior opponent before getting tested (which may also accurately describe Gonzaga's Semifinal game more than the Quarterfinal game for Santa Clara). With Gonzaga, they don't really have anything to play for. They are in the NCAA tournament as a 1 or 2-seed. I can't imagine them tanking it in the Final, so if they are going to go down, it would have to be here. St. Mary's won't have any trouble advancing against whomever opposes them on Saturday. BYU hoops plays against St. Mary's like BYU Football plays against Utah: beneath their "privileges."
My Finals Prediction:
Gonzaga should win if they survive Saturday night. St. Mary's should win if the Zags get upset. It is March and I'd love to predict a major upset. The only two teams that are at all tempting to pick are San Francisco and BYU. I just don't trust USF to beat Gonzaga for a third win in three days, even with the curse of #1 resting on Gonzaga and the benefit of two back-against-the-wall games for USF. They'd have to be really on from the outside for at least the second time in the tournament. BYU's traditonal tournament failure makes it tough to pick them, especially knowing they would have to beat USD first, then need to find anything resembling mental fortitude against St. Mary's, and then trying to figure out how to compete against Gonzaga with WCC refs that treat Olynyk like he's LeBron/Kobe/MJ. However, one might say BYU underachieved this season, and, with a guard-oriented attack, they are built for tournament success. Their D is too bad and Delgado and Winder (their two best defenders) can't possibly see the floor enough b/c BYU can't afford to have them on the offensive end of the floor. BYU just doesn't have enough players that know what to do on both ends of the court! Winder and Delgado can play D and hit wide open spot-up threes. Ambrosino is zero D and a very good, but streaky, shooter. Sharp is all D/hustle and no O (unless he's wide open under the basket). Austin can only score from one place on the floor and on D he's good for a foul or a charge on almost every possession, meaning he can't ever be counted on for meaningful minutes.
My final answer: Gonzaga...
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