Out of conference records, big wins, etc.

After one partial week of football, still four games left, I've got the out-of-conference records below. The SEC has the highest win percentage and the biggest win (O-Bama over Clemson). By the way, I was 46-7 today, for a total to date of 60-9 (87%). I already posted my picks for Sunday and Monday's games except for Louisville vs. Kentucky: UL by 14, with both teams scoring over 28 points. There were several near upsets of non-BCS schools over BCS schools and at least 4 teams were trailing FCS teams in the 4th quarter, but only one of them didn't pull it out. More on that later. It looks like it's going to be another one of those seasons! Bring on the mayhem.

Big win for Missouri, hopefully we won't have to hear about Illinois anymore, don't get me wrong, I proudly wear my orange and cheer for the Illini, but, let's be real, they are not any good. It was a good day for the other Native American mascots with a big win for the Arkansas State Indians over Texas A&M at Kyle Field and the Utah Utes over Michigan in the big house. The Florida State Seminoles were idle. Did I miss any tribes? La Tech over Mississippi State is huge for them, and bad for Sly Croom, who thought he had turned the corner last season. Whoops, one step forward, two BIG steps back. The Mountain West looked great statistically speaking, going 5-1 out of conference, however, only one win was against a BCS team, with only two others against FBS (I-A) teams, and the loss was against a FCS (I-AA) team (it was on the last play of the game, as if that should make the conference feel any better). C-USA showed well at 5-2, though East Carolina was the only one playing as the underdog to come through with a victory.

Congrats to Joe Pa on the 373rd W. I hope you pass and stay ahead of Bobby Bowden!

ACC: 7-4
Big East: 4-2
Big 10: 7-3
Big 12: 9-2
C-USA: 5-2
Independents: 1-2
MAC: 6-6
MWC: 5-1
Pac 10: 4-1
SEC: 9-1
Sun Belt: 1-5
WAC 4-3

So far

Well, I picked the winners for all of the games involving FBS teams. So far, I'm 14-2, missing on UTEP-Buffalo and Rice-SMU. I thought I'd throw out my picks for some of the more competitive games today, as well as teams that I know you are interested in.

LSU 38, Appalachian State 24 - This won't be a close game, though I am excited to watch Armante Edwards. Maybe LSU will take it easy on him...not likely.
Michigan 24, Utah 17 - Michigan still has a defense. That defense will create turnovers, and that will be the difference.
Pitt 35, Bowling Green 24 - While I'm not on the Pitt bandwagon, I think this will be the best season that Wannstedt will have since he got there.
BYU 45, Northern Iowa 13 - It will be close early, 0-0, but a few minutes into the game it will be 14-0.
Wyoming 31, Ohio 17 - Welcome to the Rockies, Frank. If you want to beat Wyoming, play them in November. But who would go to Laramie in purpose on November?
TCU 27, New Mexico 24 - Too bad this game isn't later in the season. TCU makes a statement on the road in game 1.
Clemson 28, Alabama 17 - Too many freshmen, too big a game for Alabama. Oh, and too much speed for Clemson.
California 31, Michigan State 24 - Can Cal turn it around this year. No, but the mid-tier Pac 10 teams are better than the mid-tier Big 10 ones.
Missouri 38, Illinois 21 - Illinois is over-hyped. Missouri might be too, but they'll still take this one fairly easily. All they have to do is stop Juice from running the ball. Don't ask Ohio State how to do that, they have NO CLUE.
Oregon 42, Washington 21 - very few teams can go in to Autzen Stadium and win. Washington is no where near the elite teams that could actually do it.
UNLV 17, Utah State 7 - two of the worst teams in football collide. If no one saw it, did it really happen?
Colorado 28, CSU 27 - CSU has a way of getting up for this game, even when the talent disparity is huge. They still can't win in the stadium that Obama christened with his presence this week. McCain-Palin, 2008.
Rutgers 24, Fresno State 21 - Bye-bye BCS. Bye-bye Herbstreit endorsements.
Tennesse 34, UCLA 17 - Good coaching matchup, bad player matchup. A third string QB against an SEC defense? Not good. 17 might be an optimistic look.

Final Rankings

Don't be surprised if the end of the season top 25 looks something like this. But don't be surprised if it doesn't either.

1. Oklahoma 13-0
2. USC 11-1
3. Georgia 11-2
4. Wisconsin 11-1
5. Ohio State 11-1
6. Florida 10-2
7. Missouri 11-2
8. Clemson 11-2
9. West Virginia 10-2
10. Texas Tech 10-2
11. Oregon 10-2
12. LSU 10-3
13. Virginia Tech 10-3
14. BYU 11-1
15. Boise State 11-1
16. Wake Forest 9-3
17. Tulsa 12-1
18. Texas 9-3
19. Arizona State 9-3
20. Boston College 9-3
21. Auburn 9-3
22. Penn State 9-3
23. Utah 10-2
24. South Carolina 9-3
25. South Florida 9-3
Alternates (come on, I get 5 of these, I'm guessing how the college football season is going to go, there is bound to be an injury or a star freshman I didn't account for or something that will throw a wrench in there): Tennessee, Michigan, Rutgers, Nebraska, Alabama.

A few noticeable differences from the "expert" preseason polls:
1) No Kansas: they finish the season at Nebraska, home against Texas, and vs. Missouri in KC. If you lose 3 games to end the season it's tough to stay ranked.
2) Four non-BCS non-Fresno State teams. I think you'll see 4 10-win non-BCS schools, and all of them will deserve to be ranked. 1 of them would probably be left out (when was the last time FOUR non-BCS teams were ranked) but if the season finishes with Tulsa 12-1, Boise State closing with 9 straight wins (including one over BCS Buster darling Fresno State) to get to 11-1, BYU rising to the top 5 (or so) at 11-0 before dropping a finale to Utah, Utah beating a top 5 (or so) team to notch their 10th win of the season...who do you leave out?
3) Only 5 SEC teams (but hey, two of my alternates are from the SEC) instead of 6 and all of them have at least 2 losses. I would hate to play in the SEC. Look at their schedules, they could play 3 top 10 teams inside of a month, and legitimate top 10 teams, not like charity Big East or ACC top 10 that is more like top 20...
4) The Big Ten is top heavy, again, but at least Ohio State has a challenger (and co-champion). They get two teams in the top 5 and then nothing until Penn State in the 20's.
5) Kirk Herbstreit had no say in my poll (hence the absence of Fresno State and the presence of BYU).

So there you have my top 25. Bring on the critics. I'll be glad to tell you why I left out who I did and why I placed the teams where I did, if you'd like.

Oh, and the 10 teams playing in the BCS bowls: Oklahoma and USC in the title game. Oregon makes the Rose Bowl against either Wisconsin or Ohio State, the other one will play somewhere else though. Georgia and Florida are in from the SEC, Missouri also sneaks in after losing to OU in the Big 12 title game. Clemson gets an at-large wtih Virginia Tech getting the automatic bid. West Virginia rounds out the field. Sorry, non-BCS boys, this year proves you MUST go undefeated as 3 one-loss teams all get the shaft, though I am not positive that a single loss in the 12th game moves BYU out of the top 12, but I am pretty confident in saying that it will. The Kirk Herbstreits, Les Miles', and Ty Willingham's of the world won't even put them in their top 25 after that (Miles and Willingham didn't have 14th-ranked 11-2 BYU on their ballots last year and we all know how Herbie feels about non-BCS teams not named Fresno State). If they did get the automatic bid, they would likely replace Clemson or Missouri and it would tick a lot of people off, especially if they get Hawaii-ed in their BCS game. I hope they prove me wrong and beat Utah, finish in the top 5, and play someone with a high-flying offense and stay competitive. Missouri-BYU would be an entertaining, high-scoring Fiesta Bowl...

Non-BCS Top 10

There is often a debate when it comes to those preseason polls we all care too much about. The argument is whether you ought to vote for teams based on how good they are/should be going in to the season OR whether you ought to vote for teams based on how good they will/could be at the end of the season. Lucky for me, this is my blog and I can do what I want. So I am going to put my preseason top 10 AND my should-be-by-the-postseason top 10.

Preseason top 10:
1. BYU
2. Fresno State
3. Utah
4. Tulsa
5. TCU
6. Boise State
7. Central Michigan
8. New Mexico
9. Florida Atlantic
10. Navy

Why BYU? Because the defense is not as inexperienced as you might think. Yes, they return only 3 starters from last year's team. However, the other 8 have all played in at least 10 games (one of them at TE but he knows what "game speed" is in Division I football) in Division I. 5 of them have had starts in their career. So, while they may not be bringing back starters, they are not exactly playing true freshmen. Plus, their schedule (and being in the MWC) helps them out as none of their opponents have a really potent offense like Tulsa did last year (best in the country). They have also had the benefit of going against BYU's offense for the past few weeks. The offense should be, well, BYU-like. They'll probably average around 35 points a game, which should help the defense get acclimated. Punting was a bit inconsistent last year and they attempted the fewest field goals in the country last year. Kick returns were quite good but punt returns were atrocious. Special teams might be what kicks them out of the top spot.
Why not Fresno State? Because I picked BYU instead. I think it's a close race since Fresno State returns practically everybody, but they return from a 9-4 squad where BYU is coming off back to back 11-2 seasons. They didn't have any losses to bad teams, but they had 4 of them and one of them was by over 30 points. They have the talent to challenge for the WAC and the BCS, but they don't have the schedule for it.
Why not Utah? Because the offense, while talented, hasn't been good since Urban Meyer left. Brian Johnson, who claims this team is the best he has ever been on (he was on the 2004 Fiesta Bowl team), is no Alex Smith. His decision-making, while better last year, wasn't what you would expect from a two-year starter, I know he was hurt, but injuries don't cause mental mistakes. The defense is good enough to place them in the number one spot, but until they prove they can score against 2-10 UNLV, I couldn't in good conscience put them at #1.
Why not anybody else? Going in to the season, there is no one as talented and deep as these 3. But they have the whole season to change that, and some of them will.

Post-season top 10:
1. BYU
2. Boise State
3. Tulsa
4. Utah
5. Fresno State
6. TCU
7. Navy
8. Central Michigan
9. New Mexico
10. Florida Atlantic

Reason for changes: Boise State is starting a freshman QB and there will be a learning curve associated with that. However, by season's end, he'll practically be a sophomore. Their tough conference games are on the blue turf, and Oregon is the only huge obstacle out of conference. 10 wins seems like a distinct possibility and 11 wouldn't be all that surprising.
Tulsa could easily go 11-1 and I don't see them as any worse than 9-3. Either way, they will win their division and go to the C-USA championship game and have a chance for a 12th win before bowl season (or a 10th).
Fresno State finishes 5th entirely because of their schedule. 9-3 would be great. It will be extremely difficult to get 10 wins, and there will be 4 teams that do get 10, so, as is the nature of the polls, they drop to 5th.
Navy will be good by season's end. The offense may struggle early, but it's Navy: the option on offense and discipline on defense which is all they will need to get to 8 or 9 wins.
Central Michigan has a tough non-conference schedule, and, while I can't fault them for that, an 8 or 9 win MAC team isn't a high caliber team, no matter how you slice it. If they play some defense this year (which they might), then they could sneak in to my top 5, but it's tough to just outscore everybody you play, ask Hawaii. You have to play some defense. Tulsa, remember that too!
For the 10th spot it's really a toss-up between FAU, Southern Mississippi, Central Florida, and Troy. They will probably all win 8 games, possibly 9, but not 10. While I think the Sun Belt is going to be better this year, even 9 wins for a Sun Belt team isn't quite as good as 8 for a team in C-USA, the MWC, or the WAC. It might be better than 8 in the MAC, but not by much.

Strength of Schedule

While living in Utah just after the 2008 football schedule announcements, Utah fans got all over BYU fans for "dumbing down" their schedule. Coach Mendenhall is the reason for this ridicule as he said, under the current system, you are only rewarded for winning games so you might as well just schedule teams you know you can beat. So, now that the preseason Sagarin ratings are out, I thought I'd see how these ratings (which will most certainly change as the season advances) would compare BYU (#22), Utah (#30), TCU (#33), and New Mexico's (#61) schedules. I threw out the Sagarin ratings for the 5 common conference opponents and only compare the 4 non-conference games plus the 3 games against the MWC top four.

New Mexico's opponents average Sagarin rating is 54.7 (6 points better-only team whose opponents are better than themselves)
BYU's opponents average Sagarin rating is 62.3 (40 points worse)
Utah's opponents average Sagarin rating is 66.7 (37 points worse)
TCU's opponents average Sagarin rating is 73 (40 points worse)

New Mexico's non-conference opponents average Sagarin rating is 74.75 (14 points worse)
BYU's non-conference opponents average Sagarin rating is 78 (56 points worse)
Utah's non-conference opponents average Sagarin rating is 87.75 (58 points worse)
TCU's non-conference opponents average Sagarin rating is 99.5 (67 points worse)

Other notes:
New Mexico is the only one of the 4 not playing a I-AA opponent. However, they do play New Mexico State, who, if they were a I-AA team, would not make the top 25 I-AA teams. Their lead widens over BYU because, in conference, they don't get to play themselves, number 61 while the other 3 teams do.
TCU plays the highest rated opponent in Oklahoma at number 4. They also play the lowest rated opponent in Stephen F. Austin at 192. They went a little extreme.
Utah plays two teams below 120th (the current number of I-A teams-in fact, both these teams are in the bottom 100 in the ratings). But they play two non-conference opponents that rank in Sagarin's top 25, add BYU and they have 3 on the schedule.
BYU does not play anyone ranked in the top 25. However, that's because Utah didn't make the grade. Just kidding, kind of. Also, their I-AA opponent is the only of the I-A opponents in the top 100 (TCU's is 192 and Utah's is 170) and they are rated higher than 3 of BYU's other opponents (SDSU, UNLV, and Utah State-can we drop SDSU and add UNI to the MWC?).

New Mexico, who is the worst team, will have the hardest road (which is why they will finish 4th, maybe even 5th). TCU, who is the most athletic team, will have the easiest road (which is why they might finish as high as 2nd). BYU and Utah, who are the two best teams, have similar roads, except that BYU plays 2 of its 3 top 50 games on the road, and Utah plays 3 of their 4 top 50 games (including both BYU and TCU) at home. Also of note, Utah's schedule is top-heavy and bottom-light with 3 top-25 games and 2 bottom-100 teams; Utah's SECOND worst opponent (Utah State) is BYU's worst opponent (by a pretty long ways too). So if BYU "dumbed down" the schedule this year, they were just following Utah's lead. Even with their dumbed down schedule, it's still more difficult than Utah's.

A few observations

As a bit of a sports junkie, I did spend a little bit of time looking at reader comments on online articles about non-BCS teams. I made a few observations I thought I'd share about non-BCS fans.

1) Your comments are not bulletin board material. What you say will never be read by any coach or player, it will never be placed up in a locker room as a motivator, and the only people who will ever look at it are other sports fans who happen to read that article within 10 minutes after you wrote your un-insightful comment.

2) It's OK for you to overlook a team. OU fans have every right to look past Chattanooga, BYU fans can look past Northern Iowa, and Boise State fans, feel free to count Idaho State as a W now. I guarantee that no matter how little you respect the opponent, it won't change the way that your team prepares for the game. If you cheer less loudly in the stadium or TiVo the game or decide not to watch the game at all, it will have zero impact on the outcome. The coaches and players (and in the Pac 10, the refs) ultimately decide the outcome of the game, not you.

3) Your rival will not go 0-12. Very few teams go 0-12 as it is, and if a team is good enough to have a rival, it is good enough to win at least ONE game. In fact, if your rival is in a top 25 poll, any even quasi-reputable poll, they will almost assuredly win 7 games. So Utah fans, BYU will not do worse than 8-4 (even if Max Hall gets hurt). BYU fans, Utah will not finish below 4th in the Mountain West Conference. New Mexico fans, you talk to trash to anybody who has had a 10-win season in the last twenty years and you are out of your league. Fresno State fans, win the WAC ONE TIME before you bring any smack talk, as the WAC championship can be won, regardless of how difficult your non-conference schedule is. There are many other sets of fans whom I could address but these are the 4 brashest sets that I found in my readings.

4) No matter how good you think your argument is, it is pathetic for you to discuss why your team should be selected in the next BCS conference expansion. If and when the Pac-10, Big East, or Big 10 want to expand, they will have rational and comprehensive discussions, without drinking any Red, Blue, or whatever color Kool-aid you drink. It sounds like begging when non-BCS fans discuss this on comment boards. "Oh please let us in, look at how good our football or basketball team was the last few years. We can be an asset." If your school brings in enough revenue to merit discussion, you have a chance, regardless of how successful your program is. You think Arizona and Arizona State got in to the Pac-10 because of how successful they were? Nope, but they were lucrative enough to get in to the Pac-8 when it went to 10.

5) Your star QB or HB is not a Heisman frontrunner, unless he was a finalist last year. While 13 out of 73 Heisman winners have come from teams currently considered mid-majors, only 2 of them have been since 1964. One of those two was Andre Ware from Houston, who was in the Southwest Conference at the time (which would be the equivalent of a BCS conference today). Call it unfair if you like, but your guy doesn't stand a real chance. Ty Detmer (the other non-BCS Heisman winner) passed for over 4,500 yards the year BEFORE he won the Heisman and for over 5,000 yards the year he won it. His team also beat the #1 team in the country that season. The only thing less likely than your guy winning the Heisman is your team playing for the National Championship. In fact, those two would probably have to happen together under the current format.

6) If your team finds a way to go undefeated, it will not be the most impressive feat of all time. While very few, if any, teams go 12-0 in a season, there have been plenty throughout the history of college football. Some have done it in the VERY DIFFICULT SEC. Some have done it playing difficult non-conference schedules. Some have done it several years in a row. So if Tulsa, BYU, TCU, Utah, Boise State, or Fresno State find a way to do it, it might be the greatest season in the history of your school, but your squad won't even be considered as one of the greatest teams of all-time. It will be hard enough to convince people to consider you one of the greatest teams of THIS SEASON. The have-nots are pretty insignificant in the eyes of the haves. Always have been, always will be. Next time you feel that way, remember that, as you sit and read your paper at your big, warm breakfast, you don't want to read about starving homeless people all the time. You want to read about other people like you, who aren't going hungry, who have a roof over their heads. Take that analogy to the bank.

7) It's OK to refer to your team as "we" or "us." Many people making comments criticize others for saying we. I bet those same critics are watching the Olympics talking "us" and "we" as the USA brings home medals. Did you swim a single lap? Did you take a single run around the track? Did you prance around in the floor exercise? It's OK to say "we" even if you didn't do a darn thing to help the team, which you didn't! Fans have been taking ownership of their teams/players since Adam and Eve, or whenever "sport" was invented.

8) Fans hate BYU. The two articles that showed up on the front page of ESPN College Football this offseason had more than twice as many comments to them than any other article written about a non-BCS school. Most were shots at BYU, its fans, or the church that supports the institution. Some were in good fun, some were flat out Al Sharpton-like (full of hatred and bigotry), and others were just jealous fans of other non-BCS schools that haven't had the same LONG-TERM success BYU has had (forgetting those few bad seasons in this decade). Just to emphasize how little non-BCS teams matter, even though the number of comments on BYU articles was twice that of other non-BCS schools, that number would be below average for an article about a BCS team.

The AP Poll

Well, the AP poll came out this weekend. There was only one non-BCS school in the top 25 (though there were five in the "others receiving votes"), with BYU coming in at number 16. For a point of reference, last year there were 3 in the top 25, but none in the top 20, and 3 in the "others receiving votes." In 2006 there was only 1 ranked team (not in the top 20) and 6 in the others receiving votes. Kirk Herbstreit lambasted the voters for voting a non-BCS school at 16, saying that they need to stop "force-feeding the next Boise State or Utah" on us, let those teams earn it throughout the course of the season. He said last year Hawaii was forced on America and we all know how that ended against the University of Georgia. He also said that Fresno State is better than BYU, though he didn't seem to think they deserved to be ranked either.

I tend to agree with Herbstreit in saying "let those teams earn it." However, I disagree in saying that BYU or Fresno State haven't earned it. Besides, why do BCS schools get to "earn it" without having to play any games this season but the non-BCS ones have to earn it on the field? BYU won 11 games two years in a row, including a bowl victory both years against BCS teams, and they return 9 offensive starters from last year and 6 guys who have started multiple games in their careers (two were injured last season so don't count as "returning" starters) on defense. Fresno State won 9 games last year, including two against BCS teams, and they return 16 starters. Why can't they have earned it prior to the season? Why should 6-6 last season Alabama or 9-4 I-play-in-the-Big-Least-Conference South Florida automatically get ranked higher than BYU or Fresno State just because they play in better conferences (though the Big East is debatable)?

The message boards at more-popular-than-my-blog sites fill up with all kinds of comments about the polls. BYU fans say BYU is back, the national media is finally respecting us, this proves that we are better than Utah, etc. Utah fans say the preseason polls don't mean anything, BYU's schedule is soft, etc. So I thought I'd give my thought on what preseason polls mean.

First, the preseason poll means very little to a great team or a bad team. Last year Missouri didn't start in the polls and ended up 4th. Louisville started at 10th and didn't even get a single vote in the final polls. If BYU turns out to be a Louisville team, starting at 16 means nothing. They would lose several games and no one would be talking about them again for the rest of the season except about how they had a disappointing season.

If BYU turns out to be a Missouri team (though they couldn't lose two games like the Tigers did), starting at 16 makes a huge difference. Realistically speaking, if BYU went 12-0, with their two BCS opponents, they COULD and likely would finish in the top 5. It wouldn't really impact the BCS game they play in or their opponent, unfortunately. However, regardless of what their final ranking is, starting at 16 and going undefeated would guarantee a BCS game, where starting out of the rankings and going undefeated might not guarantee the scraps from the big dawgs.

The third scenario is if BYU turns out to be only a good team: it gives them some room for error. Last season, starting out of the rankings and losing two games, BYU still finished 17th in the final BCS standings. The year before in the same situation (though they were COMPLETELY off the radar prior to that season), they finished 20th. So, starting at 16th, even losing a game they would probably still finish in the top 12 and get a guaranteed berth to a BCS game. Even losing two games they could be in the top 15 and be in the mix for an at-large bid.

In short, if BYU is as bad as some hateful Utah fans think, their preseason ranking won't matter because they'll be 0-12. If BYU is as great as some boastful BYU fans think (and if everyone else manages to lose two games AGAIN this year), their preseason ranking will give them a potential shot at the National Championship game because they'll be 12-0 and only have 14 spots to climb (just one spot a week). If BYU is as good as they have been the past few years, their preseason ranking will be fairly equivalent to their postseason ranking. I personally think the ranking will be very beneficial, as, at 11-1, they will still get that guaranteed BCS game and the paycheck that goes with it. That's the difference between starting at no. 16 and no. 26.

In conclusion, the preseason polls don't mean anything, but they make a big difference.

C-USA

East
UCF 8-4 (7-1)
Southern Miss 8-4 (6-2)
East Carolina 7-5 (6-2)
Memphis 7-5 (5-3)
Marshall 5-7 (4-4)
UAB 1-11 (0-8)

West
Tulsa 11-1 (8-0)
Houston 7-5 (5-3)
SMU 4-8 (3-5)
Tulane 4-8 (2-6)
UTEP 4-8 (1-7)
Rice 2-10 (1-7)

Tulsa beats UCF in the C-USA championship to go 12-1. That could put them in the top 20, probably top 15. BCS? Perhaps, depends on whether someone goes undefeated or not.

Other big story: being in the VERY weak West Division, SMU could perhaps get bowl eligible after a 1-11 season...well, maybe next year...

Interview with Phelps

Last night I watched an interview with Michael Phelps after the 4x200 freestyle relay. He said something that caught my attention. It was something along the lines of: our goal when we came here was to break 7 minutes (which would have been a new world record). As I thought about that mindset, I realized that that is the mindset of champions. He didn't say: "we came here to win gold" or "we just wanted to smash the French." Champions realize that the only thing they can control is how well they perform.

I compare that philosophy to what coach Bronco Mendenhall at BYU has coined as the "Quest for Perfection." Taking that at face-value, which most people do, it seems he wants 12-0 and a BCS game. However, if you think about what he really means (speakly purely in the football sense, though he applies it to his players off the field as well): we expect each individual to learn, understand, and perform at their full potential on the field, to perform perfectly essentially. We expect each player to understand their role as part of the team and to be perfect in their execution. He doesn't say anything about wins and losses or BCS games. He used to say that his team "needs to execute at a higher level." Now he has established what level of execution is required: perfection. That is the mindset and philosophy of champions: we will take care of the things we can control-our level of execution; we will be as perfect as we can be. In the case of BYU, and certainly in the case of Michael Phelps, if they do their best, the victories take care of themselves.

The WAC

1. Boise State: 11-1 (8-0)
2. Fresno State 9-3 (7-1)
3. Nevada 7-5 (6-2)
4. New Mexico State 6-6 (5-3)
5. Hawaii 6-7 (4-4)
6. Louisiana Tech 4-8 (2-6)
7. San Jose State 3-9 (2-6)
8. Utah State 2-10 (2-6)
9. Idaho 1-11 (0-8)

Why Boise State WILL WIN: for the exact reason "experts" think they won't: offense. Since Chris Peterson took over as offensive coordinator in 2001, the Broncos have averaged 41 points/game and have only had one season where they averaged less than 5 TDs a game (34.3 in 2001-his first season). Even with a bad defense (which is not the case for this team), it's tough to lose a game where you score 41 points. They recruit as well as any non-BCS team, especially at the skill positions. They'll have good receivers and they still have Ian Johnson. The defense is supposed to be the strong suit of this team, but they will have a potent offense by mid-season, too bad Oregon is at Autzen Stadium, otherwise...

Why Fresno State WON'T WIN: because they play at Boise State. For most non-BCS schools, there isn't much of a home field advantage (20-30K per game isn't all that intimidating), but BSU happens to be one of them. In the past when non-BCS teams receive BCS hype in the preseason, an early season loss has carried over to the next game. They would lose to Wisconsin anyway, but it will sting even more after the loss at Rutgers, can they recover from 0-2?

Why Nevada WON'T WIN: the administration backed out of a contract to play BYU at the last minute so they could schedule Grambling and "ensure bowl eligibility." To me, talented and confident teams, teams that are good enough to compete, don't worry about bowl eligibility: this isn't the sign of a potential conference champion. At Hawaii is tough, at Fresno is tougher, and Boise State at home is no picnic either. A new defensive coordinator might help out the defense, but Texas Tech will show everyone early in the season that the secondary is a weakness, and they'll prove how big (or small) of a weakness it is.

Why New Mexico State WON'T WIN: they aren't good enough. They could sneak a 7th win this season but that might be too much to ask for a team coming off of a 9-loss season. They will throw for about 400 a game though, so that's exciting! They'll also give up a ton of yards. They don't have the firepower to outslug the heavyweights of the conference.

Why Hawaii WON'T WIN: because everyone is gone. It's a bad sign when the coach of an undefeated WAC team jumps ship for a 1-11 Conference-USA team, even if it is SMU. He must have known what was coming. With that said, strong line play keeps them afloat, but with a 13th game, they need 7-6 for bowl eligibility. That will be a struggle with Florida, Oregon State, Washington State, and Cincinnati on the schedule (best case scenario is probably 1-3 there).

Why LA Tech WON'T WIN: pass defense. You can't be as bad at it as LA Tech is in this conference. Lack of defense will cost them winnable games against Hawaii, San Jose State, New Mexico State, and Nevada. The New Mexico State game should be a tribute to the Old WAC: first one to 50 wins.

Why SJSU WON'T WIN: you have to score to win games. They were last in the WAC in scoring last year, 103rd in the country, and this year figures to be a struggle as well as they lost their QB and leading rusher, not that they could run the ball anyway. I think week 7 is rock bottom as I think Utah State will beat them.

Why USU WON'T WIN: because they don't have an offense, or a defense. They figure to be better on defense than they were last year as they return 9 starters from a team that showed improvement throughout the season, though several of those returners will be at new positions this year. They don't have good receivers to throw to and they don't know who is going to be throwing to them anyway. That is a bad sign with the season so close.

Why Idaho WON'T WIN: because the only conference game they could win is on the road, Utah State. They can't pass the ball, which is bad for a team that will need to mount huge comebacks starting early in the second quarter. They can't hold on to the ball, they can't punt, they can't keep other teams out of the end zone, etc. This season won't look as bad as last season but they have a LONG way to go. They'll be lucky to win 2 games and there is NO CHANCE they win 3.

Answer

BYU: Bronco Mendenhall, Junior College National Champion at Snow before playing for the Oregon State Beavers, don't tell Anna.
Utah: Kyle Whittingham, played LB and was a graduate assistant at BYU before switching to the other side of the rivalry.
Navy: Ken Niumatalolo, the only one of the four to serve a mission, played QB at Hawaii.

and...

Texas Tech: Mike Leach, who, by the bye, received his undergraduate in 1983 from BYU. He never played college football. However, the guy is an offensive genius.

Correction

In my previous post in "Week 6," I asked the question whether the Air Force Falcons could lose to two Mormon coaches. The real question should be whether they can lose to three Mormon coaches. On a side note, they are the only team in the country playing 3 games against LDS head coaches. There are only 4 LDS HC in the country, that I am aware of. Can you name them?

Mountain West Games of the Week

Week 1: Utah @ Michigan, (ABC) 1:30pm MT: with a win, the Utes would be ranked for first time since 2004.
Alternate: TCU @ New Mexico: tough game to start the season with.

Week 2: Texas A&M @ New Mexico 3pm MT: big statement game for New Mexico, we'll know how good they are after this game (2-0 or 0-2?)
Alternates: BYU @ Washington (FSN): if they can't mash the Huskies, bye-bye to their quest.
SDSU @ ND, (NBC): the Aztecs have played well against teams from the midwest this decade, and the whole country can see the MWC bottom-feeder's stuff. Watch this to see how announcer's ought to prepare for and call a game, those Notre Dame guys do it right!

Week 3: UCLA @ BYU: this will be the rubber match of a 3-game series played over the last 12 months.
Alternates: Stanford @ TCU: another MWC-Pac 10 game, we've seen a bi-gillion of these over the past few years.

Week 4: New Mexico @ Tulsa: a victory for the Lobos here could stop all of the Tulsa talk and put all of the BCS-buster focus on the MWC.
Alternate: Iowa State @ UNLV: last year's Utah team was better than this year's Iowa State team, can the Tank rush for over 200 against a Big 12 foe?

Week 5: TCU @ Oklahoma: people are starting to talk about TCU and they'll probably be 4-0 heading in to this game, perhaps even ranked...

Week 6: Navy @ Air Force: will Calhoun and his Falcons get beat by two Mormon coaches in one season?
Alternate: Oregon State @ Utah: the Utes WILL win this game, possibly by more than they whalloped UCLA by last year.

Week 7: Utah @ Wyoming: this will be bloody, but not close.
Alternate: New Mexico @ BYU: read comment for Utah @ Wyoming game above.

Week 8: BYU @ TCU: Thursday night game, lots of BYU fans in Texas, could feel more like a home game for the Cougars, unless TCU beat Oklahoma in week 5...

Week 9: New Mexico @ Air Force: the Academy has payback on its mind after a spectacular game in Albuquerque last year.

Week 10: Utah @ New Mexico: this trip won't be kind to Utah. Don't look ahead to TCU!
Alternate: Air Force @ Army: I love the service academy games!

Week 11: TCU @ Utah: the battle for second place.
Alternate: Wyoming @ Tennessee: a chance for a late season MWC statement. All we'll learn is that Wyoming can't make a positive late-season statement.

Week 12: BYU @ Air Force: BYU will be making a push for 11-0 and the top 5. Will Max Hall prove to be the real air force?
Alternate: New Mexico @ CSU: if CSU does turn it around as I predicted, this could be a game.

Week 13: BYU @ Utah: this is the game of the year for this conference. Not since the late 90's will this game mean so much on the national stage for BOTH teams. I think '98 was the last time both teams were ranked heading in to the game.
Alternate: the replay of the BYU-Utah game.

Bowl games: If BYU makes a BCS bowl, that's the ONE to watch, otherwise, another year of bad bowl games as the conference champ takes on a 4th-place Pac 10 team in Vegas that inevitably suffered a major late-season collapse, the second place team (Utah) beats the 50th best team in the country to extend its bowl winning streak to 10 and they brashly brag about it forever (as they forget how many years it took them to make it to 10 bowl games), the third place team takes on a 6-6 with-a-losing-in-conference record WAC team, etc. We'll still enjoy the games anyway...

And now...

#1: BYU 11-1 (7-1)
BYU returns 9 guys from the 25th-rated total yardage offense, averaging just under 443 yds/game. Among the returners are Max Hall who threw for nearly 4,000 yards in his first collegiate season (5th in the country), Harvey Unga, who rushed for 1,200 yards in his first full season (15th in the country), Austin Collie, who had nearly 1,000 yards receiving while averaging 16.9 yards/catch, Dennis Pitta, who emerged as a reliable target at TE with 813 yards (4th in the country for tight ends), and 4 starters on the offensive line, with the only non-starter a former SEC all-freshman team member. Even the backup linemen have a experience: four of the non-starters played in at least 5 games last year and 2 of them started at least 2 games. They are a little thin at WR at this point, but with Austin Collie sidelined for a few weeks a lot of the fresher faces are seeing time with the first team. The best pro-prospect at TE isn't even Pitta, who will likely be the leading pass catcher from that position, it's Andrew George who has the size, speed, catching and blocking ability to succeed at the next level. As far as the backs are concerned, the loss of fullback Manase Tonga could be big. However, BYU runs a lot of single back formations, so the fullback isn't as vital as he is in a Big-10, three-yard-and-a-cloud-of-dust type offense. His blocking and pass catching ability will be missed. Fui Vakapuna will get Tonga's reps and this year he is healthy, and his ability to run exceeded Tonga's, though he'll need to block better against some of the bigger defenses (Washington, UCLA, and Utah). The offense averaged over 30 points/game last year, add the 10 returning starters and the ability to actually kick field goals this year (they added a high school All-American kicker with a state record 65-yard field goal-and several other plus 60 yarders-as a senior), they should be able to push 40 pts/game.
Defensively, they lost a lot of starters but do have a lot of experience coming back. The D-line only lost one player from the rotation of 7-8 they played last year. They replace that one lost with Russell Tialavea, who sat out last year with an injury, but led the team two years ago in blocked kicks and centers eaten alive, though I hear he dropped 30 pounds and is only 310 this season. All-America candidate Jan Jorgensen had a dominant season as a sophomore last year, following up a successful freshman All-American campaign prior to that. At linebacker, only David Nixon returns as a starter, but Shaun Doman and Matt Bauman both played in double-digit games last year and recorded over 30 tackles a piece. Doman also played in 12 games during the 2006 campaign. Matt Ah You is in the mix at MLB as well, having played in 13 games over two seasons prior to a mission. Weakside LB is the only place they don't have experience in the front 7, though they have a talented, big fast, strong guy with a mean streak in So'oto to man up out there. As far as the secondary is concerned, they are a little more green, but not completely inexperienced. The safeties (Kellen Fowler and David Tafuna) both have starts logged in their careers: Fowler filled in for an injury and started 4 games last year, and Tafuna has played in 34 games over his career. At the corners, the jobs are still not quite decided. Brandon Howard comes in as the most experienced CB, having played in every game last year, mostly on special teams, but he did rotate in at corner early in the season. The defense may not be quite as good individually, but I don't think they'll finish much worse than last year's 10th-rated defense. They gave up 18 points/game, and that average goes up due to a 55-point shoot out against Tulsa. They won't have any shootouts this year. Only one team on the schedule was in the top 50 in the country in passing yards last year (SDSU) and they had an NFL-caliber QB who won't be there this season.
Outlook: can a 1-loss team break into the BCS? I think we might find out this year. BYU has come out of the gates slowly each season under Bronco Mendenhall: will these be the year that changes? Perhaps. The coach has put it on the players to start just like they finish. Besides that, I think this is the first year that the team believes in themselves early in the year. If they can escape the early visit to Washington and take care of business at home against UCLA, then they really could run the table. There will certainly be hype after two "BCS" wins and, at 3-0, they could be making a push for the top 10 at that point. They are capable of beating Utah, but they have had to mount comeback drives each of the last two games to win. If they have to rely on a last-minute touchdown for the third straight season, they may fall one game short on their "Quest for Perfection." I think 11-1 is very reasonable, even with the HUGE target they'll have on their backs, 12-0 is certainly not out of the question.
Loss: Utah, last game of the year, on the road at your rival's place, College Gameday in the vicinity, BCS on the line, too bad it's available ONLY on the Mtn Network, contact your local television provider for details on subscribing.
Good wins: @TCU, @Washington, vs. UCLA, vs. New Mexico: I think all of these teams will be bowl eligible, except maybe UW, but a win on the road against the Pac 10 is a good win for any non-BCS school.
What it all means: If BYU is 11-0, playing Utah, they would likely be in the top 5. A loss and they still could be in the top 12 (the automatic qualifying ranking for a non-BCS team), but even if they are in the top 20 they could still be invited...it would be better to just win the game.
Future: assuming no one jets early for the NFL, next year could be even better for BYU. It will be the first year the offense and defense will enter on somewhat even footing. Max Hall could enter the season as a legitimate Heisman candidate (not a "darkhorse" candidate like he is this year). They will graduate 4 of 5 starters on the O-Line but they have experienced backups already, and they haven't even played this season yet. Only one WR graduates: Michael Reid. We'll have to see how return missionaries and freshmen play this year to see how big of a loss that is. Defensively, they will likely only be starting only 3 seniors. The 2009 season could be the best team BYU will have fielded in about 25 years (their national championship season for those counting)...They have a fairly challenging schedule, however. In their first 3 games of the season they play @Arizona State and play host to Florida State. So it's also possible that they'll have a better team but end up with a worse record. But if they go to a BCS game this year and start off beating those two teams next year out of conference... They also have Utah State on the non-conference schedule and they'll get TCU, Air Force, and Utah at home, in conference. Considering they haven't lost at home since November of 2005 in an overtime game against rival Utah, that should be a big help. Next year looks really good for BYU. 2009 could be another BYU-Utah classic too!