Week 5 Rankings, Week 4 Recap

The model went 46-12 this past weekend and 29-21 against the spread.  The model didn't do as well on upsets this week as Tennessee clutched defeat from the jaws of victory, NIU came up 3 points short against BC, Mizzou couldn't get over the hump against Kentucky, and Arizona State came up just 4 TDs short against USC...

My top 5 locks ended up all being right.  My "next five" showed why I wasn't as confident in them, going a lowly 2-3.

This weeks upsets include:
Tulane over UCF
Illinois over Nebraska
UTEP over UTSA

The 5 locks of the week:
UTEP +3 (UTSA)
Navy -5.5 (Air Force)
NC State -4.5 (Louisville)
TCU -15 (Texas)
Louisiana Lafayette +18 (Louisiana Tech)

The "next" 5:
BYU -17.5 (UConn)
Missouri -2.5 (South Carolina)
Texas Tech +17 (Baylor)
Illinois +6.5 (Nebraska)
Appalachian State -25.5 (Wyoming)

The model has 13 games within 1 point of what the Vegas betting line is.

4 teams dropped out of the top 25 this past weekend; BYU, Georgia Tech, Tennessee, and Arizona State.  They were replaced by West Virginia, Oklahoma State, NC State, and Boise State.  Utah and USC made big jumps.  The margin between TCU, Ohio State, and Michigan State remains razor thin (and fluid).  I found a strength of schedule issue in the model, so there's some potential variance to be had there; I hope to fix it by next week.  Between a full-time job, coaching HS football, and being a dad, I have a tough time keeping up with my hobby from time to time!

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior	Change
TCU	0.7126	1	3	2
Ohio St	0.7053	2	1	-1
Michigan St	0.7000	3	2	-1
LSU	0.6937	4	4	0
Mississippi	0.6893	5	5	0
Utah	0.6889	6	10	4
UCLA	0.6787	7	8	1
USC	0.6693	8	13	5
Baylor	0.6692	9	9	0
Florida St	0.6673	10	6	-4
Georgia	0.6565	11	7	-4
Oklahoma	0.6509	12	16	4
Alabama	0.6493	13	12	-1
Notre Dame	0.6469	14	15	1
Michigan	0.6435	15	18	3
Texas A&M	0.6416	16	17	1
California	0.6393	17	20	3
Stanford	0.6338	18	19	1
Oregon	0.6200	19	11	-8
Missouri	0.6159	20	14	-6
West Virginia	0.6125	21	28	7
Oklahoma St	0.6108	22	26	4
NC State	0.5983	23	31	8
Boise St	0.5976	24	30	6
Texas Tech	0.5972	25	21	-4
Wisconsin	0.5967	26	29	3
BYU	0.5903	27	22	-5
Tennessee	0.5889	28	24	-4
North Carolina	0.5886	29	27	-2
Temple	0.5838	30	38	8
Georgia Tech	0.5829	31	25	-6
Navy	0.5822	32	33	1
Northwestern	0.5792	33	36	3
Arizona St	0.5778	34	23	-11
Minnesota	0.5766	35	39	4
Kentucky	0.5761	36	45	9
Toledo	0.5745	37	42	5
Mississippi St	0.5743	38	48	10
Clemson	0.5743	39	41	2
Kansas St	0.5736	40	35	-5
Memphis	0.5632	41	52	11
Penn St	0.5615	42	44	2
Iowa	0.5586	43	49	6
South Carolina	0.5585	44	43	-1
Nebraska	0.5560	45	46	1
WKU	0.5555	46	47	1
Florida	0.5549	47	54	7
Arizona	0.5525	48	34	-14
Virginia Tech	0.5520	49	32	-17
Miami, FL	0.5487	50	53	3
Arkansas	0.5463	51	40	-11
Bowling Green	0.5440	52	57	5
Auburn	0.5416	53	37	-16
Houston	0.5412	54	60	6
Duke	0.5388	55	63	8
Ohio	0.5345	56	51	-5
Illinois	0.5311	57	61	4
Pittsburgh	0.5250	58	59	1
Appalachian St	0.5243	59	70	11
N Illinois	0.5241	60	50	-10
Washington	0.5193	61	56	-5
Georgia Southern	0.5193	62	64	2
Middle Tenn	0.5172	63	58	-5
Utah St	0.5169	64	55	-9
Indiana	0.5077	65	68	3
Vanderbilt	0.5050	66	66	0
Marshall	0.5009	67	69	2
Texas	0.4974	68	62	-6
Cincinnati	0.4957	69	65	-4
Syracuse	0.4951	70	67	-3
Tulsa	0.4890	71	72	1
Louisiana Tech	0.4885	72	75	3
East Carolina	0.4864	73	80	7
Colorado	0.4800	74	78	4
Ball St	0.4755	75	71	-4
Louisville	0.4736	76	79	3
Iowa St	0.4642	77	77	0
Boston College	0.4622	78	88	10
Maryland	0.4584	79	76	-3
Purdue	0.4583	80	74	-6
Washington St	0.4583	81	81	0
Air Force	0.4571	82	86	4
Colorado St	0.4530	83	85	2
Arkansas St	0.4518	84	82	-2
W Michigan	0.4477	85	84	-1
Louisiana	0.4433	86	73	-13
Akron	0.4431	87	99	12
Oregon St	0.4390	88	83	-5
Rutgers	0.4339	89	94	5
Cent Mich	0.4322	90	91	1
San Diego St	0.4192	91	93	2
Wake Forest	0.4188	92	89	-3
Texas St	0.4178	93	87	-6
Southern Miss	0.4162	94	98	4
Rice	0.4149	95	97	2
Massachusetts	0.4085	96	100	4
New Mexico	0.4064	97	103	6
Buffalo	0.4063	98	92	-6
SMU	0.4056	99	90	-9
Kent St	0.4054	100	112	12
FIU	0.4023	101	102	1
San Jose St	0.3956	102	115	13
Virginia	0.3951	103	101	-2
Old Dominion	0.3938	104	96	-8
Hawaii	0.3926	105	104	-1
USF	0.3908	106	109	3
Charlotte	0.3904	107	95	-12
Georgia St	0.3904	108	106	-2
Troy	0.3895	109	107	-2
UTEP	0.3890	110	110	0
Connecticut	0.3888	111	105	-6
Tulane	0.3736	112	111	-1
Nevada	0.3718	113	117	4
UCF	0.3684	114	113	-1
Fresno St	0.3648	115	108	-7
ULM	0.3648	116	116	0
South Alabama	0.3584	117	114	-3
FAU	0.3362	118	122	4
UNLV	0.3293	119	124	5
New Mexico St	0.3164	120	118	-2
Army	0.3039	121	127	6
Kansas	0.3027	122	119	-3
North Texas	0.3020	123	121	-2
Idaho	0.3015	124	120	-4
UTSA	0.2932	125	123	-2
Miami, OH	0.2800	126	126	0
E Michigan	0.2714	127	125	-2
Wyoming	0.1992	128	128	0

Week 4 Rankings, Week 3 Recap

Another money-making week for the model.  The model correctly identified 80% of all winners and went 63% against the spread.  The 8 upsets the model picked didn't go as well, as most of the upset teams came up just short (but covered in all cases but one).  It went 2-6 in upsets; the 6 losses were by a combined 21 points.  7 of my top 10 covered (4-1 on the 5 "locks" I posted).

BYU covered and lost, which is how I had it going.  But it was still painful to watch.  More painful yet is knowing that BYU would probably be ranked in the top 10-12 at this point, with still a few good opportunities to move up on its own, not even counting losses piling up for some pretenders.  The model projects Michigan winning and covering the current 4.5-point spread.  After the way UCLA ran the ball against BYU, it's tough to see how that will change this weekend; however, the BYU secondary should be up to the task against a bad QB.  With that said, BYU has a way of making average players look phenomenal.

Only 4 upset picks this week (although I haven't been able to find a line on one game this week: Indiana-Wake Forest, which the model gives to Indiana by 2.5 points).
Arizona State over USC
Northern Illinois over Boston College
Tennessee over Florida
Missouri over Kentucky

The 5 "locks" of the week:
Boise State -2.5 (at Virginia)
South Carolina -14.5 (UCF)
Navy -6.5 (at Connecticut)
New Mexico -3 (at Wyoming)
Syracuse +24 (LSU)

Next 5:
Buffalo -2 (Nevada)
Western Kentucky -20.5 (Miami, OH)
Charlotte -7.5 (Florida Atlantic)
Michigan State -27 (Central Michigan)
Toledo -7.5 (Arkansas State)

The model would suggest Utah -14 is a strong play as well (actually in the top 5 locks), but I cannot in good faith recommend that b/c my experiences with many Utah fans the past 10 years means that I hope Utah doesn't cover.  Ever again.

Team	Rating	Rank	Prior
Ohio St	0.7082	1	3
Michigan St	0.7071	2	2
TCU	0.7027	3	1
LSU	0.6889	4	6
Mississippi	0.6842	5	8
Florida St	0.6646	6	9
Georgia	0.6645	7	13
UCLA	0.6608	8	11
Baylor	0.6602	9	7
Utah	0.6595	10	14
Oregon	0.6553	11	10
Alabama	0.6525	12	5
USC	0.6470	13	4
Missouri	0.6438	14	12
Notre Dame	0.6435	15	18
Oklahoma	0.6415	16	16
Texas A&M	0.6303	17	17
Michigan	0.6286	18	15
Stanford	0.6260	19	24
California	0.6257	20	22
Texas Tech	0.6109	21	28
BYU	0.6105	22	21
Arizona St	0.6094	23	20
Tennessee	0.6089	24	23
Georgia Tech	0.6066	25	19
Oklahoma St	0.6001	26	25
North Carolina	0.5967	27	30
West Virginia	0.5955	28	29
Wisconsin	0.5941	29	27
Boise St	0.5837	30	31
NC State	0.5834	31	37
Virginia Tech	0.5767	32	43
Navy	0.5761	33	41
Arizona	0.5760	34	36
Kansas St	0.5735	35	39
Northwestern	0.5707	36	51
Auburn	0.5698	37	32
Temple	0.5697	38	49
Minnesota	0.5687	39	40
Arkansas	0.5648	40	26
Clemson	0.5647	41	50
Toledo	0.5622	42	52
South Carolina	0.5612	43	35
Penn St	0.5594	44	47
Kentucky	0.5576	45	34
Nebraska	0.5562	46	33
WKU	0.5543	47	38
Mississippi St	0.5537	48	48
Iowa	0.5536	49	55
N Illinois	0.5509	50	42
Ohio	0.5508	51	45
Memphis	0.5497	52	58
Miami, FL	0.5399	53	59
Florida	0.5358	54	67
Utah St	0.5350	55	44
Washington	0.5341	56	60
Bowling Green	0.5328	57	46
Middle Tenn	0.5303	58	65
Pittsburgh	0.5291	59	53
Houston	0.5209	60	64
Illinois	0.5186	61	54
Texas	0.5162	62	57
Duke	0.5159	63	56
Georgia Southern	0.5151	64	62
Cincinnati	0.5134	65	61
Vanderbilt	0.5124	66	63
Syracuse	0.5037	67	71
Indiana	0.4960	68	79
Marshall	0.4912	69	77
Appalachian St	0.4910	70	68
Ball St	0.4901	71	76
Tulsa	0.4860	72	75
Louisiana	0.4854	73	69
Purdue	0.4810	74	66
Louisiana Tech	0.4794	75	74
Maryland	0.4771	76	82
Iowa St	0.4755	77	72
Colorado	0.4718	78	85
Louisville	0.4713	79	70
East Carolina	0.4712	80	73
Washington St	0.4709	81	78
Arkansas St	0.4687	82	84
Oregon St	0.4542	83	92
W Michigan	0.4517	84	89
Colorado St	0.4476	85	81
Air Force	0.4444	86	93
Texas St	0.4433	87	80
Boston College	0.4402	88	87
Wake Forest	0.4382	89	96
SMU	0.4369	90	94
Cent Mich	0.4335	91	88
Buffalo	0.4332	92	97
San Diego St	0.4321	93	83
Rutgers	0.4298	94	91
Charlotte	0.4277	95	86
Old Dominion	0.4274	96	90
Rice	0.4253	97	100
Southern Miss	0.4216	98	109
Akron	0.4184	99	102
Massachusetts	0.4182	100	95
Virginia	0.4166	101	99
FIU	0.4163	102	103
New Mexico	0.4018	103	101
Hawaii	0.4003	104	112
Connecticut	0.4002	105	107
Georgia St	0.3954	106	108
Troy	0.3951	107	104
Fresno St	0.3926	108	106
USF	0.3903	109	105
UTEP	0.3903	110	114
Tulane	0.3859	111	113
Kent St	0.3834	112	111
UCF	0.3791	113	98
South Alabama	0.3788	114	117
San Jose St	0.3785	115	110
ULM	0.3676	116	116
Nevada	0.3508	117	118
New Mexico St	0.3413	118	115
Kansas	0.3171	119	119
Idaho	0.3163	120	125
North Texas	0.3153	121	120
FAU	0.3128	122	121
UTSA	0.3075	123	122
UNLV	0.3020	124	127
E Michigan	0.2992	125	123
Miami, OH	0.2898	126	126
Army	0.2847	127	124
Wyoming	0.2139	128	128