I have had a lot of people ask me where I think Jimmer is going in the NBA Draft. Honestly, I have no idea where he will end up being drafted because so many things can happen. I know where he could get drafted and I know where I would prefer that he go. The main players are the Kings at #7, the Bucks at #10, the Jazz at #12, the Suns at #13, the Pacers at #15, and the Knicks #17. Jimmer worked out for all of those teams except Milwaukee at #10.
The Kings
If Sacramento wants Jimmer at #7, then he gets drafted at #7. Done deal. No one will trade up to get him higher than that. At #7, Sacramento, and its fans, are looking for a savior to rescue a franchise that was once a perennial playoff contender. He would have the prestige of being a top 10 pick. But I believe in Jimmer's case, his "making it" in the NBA will be determined a lot on his situation, and I don't believe that the Kings present that situation. The Kings are not a good basketball team. He would have to play well and play a lot for the team to have a successful season. And if he doesn't play like an All-Star out of the chute, he takes the brunt of the blame. He helps them be not as bad as they were offensively, but he doesn't have any help on that side of the ball. I believe he would wear down in an 82-game season in Sacramento (though I truly believe it'll be more like a 54-game season anyway).
The Bucks
I don't see this happening. The Bucks may have wanted him, but he clearly didn't want the Bucks, and the refusal to go workout for them is a sign: do not draft me.
The Jazz
Certainly, Jazz ownership is feeling pressure from local fans, some saying "pick him" and others saying "absolutely do not pick him." I do not think the Jazz should pick Jimmer, but Jimmer would fit in OK there in a pick-and-roll type offense. There will be no drama as to whether or not the Jazz are picking him though: if they take Brandon Knight at #3, they aren't taking Jimmer at #12. If they take one of the international big men, they are positioning to take Jimmer at #12 or shop that pick for a veteran PG. I personally think they should take Knight. Of the 3 highest projected big men that will be on the board at 3 (Enes Kanter, Jan Vesely, and Jonas Valanciunas), at least two of them will be flops. Guaranteed. Brandon Knight is, therefore, the "safe" pick and the one that helps the team IMMEDIATELY. They can pick him and shop the #12 pick for a veteran PF/C instead.
The Suns
Steve Nash Jr? Jimmer isn't as squirmy and assisty as Nash is, but he's every bit the scorer Nash is already. Under Steve's tutelage the next two years, Jimmer could become vastly improved in other areas of his game, i.e. passing, creating for others, and moving without the ball. Jimmer can pass, but not like Nash (few can), Jimmer can create, but mostly for himself, and he's good at coming off screens but there is a lot more to moving without the ball than that. Great situation for Jimmer, great situation for Phoenix. Especially in the long-term. In the short-term, he'll have to wait his turn and take his lumps. He'll have the ball in his hands a lot, but he'll be expected to be as proficient as Nash is with it, and he's not there yet.
The Pacers
As much as I don't want Jimmer to play for a stupid Indiana team that the Bulls own (Go Bulls!), I think in the short-term and long-term, this is the absolute best place for Jimmer. First, they made the playoffs last year. Second, they are thin enough that he could easily break the rotation. Third, all the Pacers need is a little bump in offense and they go from the 7-8 seed range into the 5-6 range, and if Jimmer ends up being sensational, perhaps even as high as 4 in 2012 as I believe Boston, Orlando and Atlanta begin to wane. I think it gives Jimmer the best chance to be successful now, and create a niche for himself long-term. If he is the guy that pushes them over the top, he'll get a great second contract!
The Knicks
Jimmer wants to be a Knick. The system is perfect for him. They run up and down the floor. Amar'e is about the only one on the team that cares about defense, including the coaching staff. I do believe Jimmer will ultimately be an adequate defender in the NBA, though he'll never be great at it. But I think they are a flashy team and that suits Jimmer's offensive abilities. It's New York so his popularity could skyrocket if he plays well and with Melo and Stoudamire, he'll have open looks every time he touches the ball. But I don't see a lot of guys on the roster that are interested in team basketball, and that's what Jimmer wants/needs. While Melo is dribbling around trying to find his 30 shots a game, there won't be much opportunity for Jimmer. The Knicks would probably have to move up to get Jimmer, probably trading with the Jazz at #12.
Whether the Knicks trade up or not will probably decide Jimmer's fate, as I don't believe the Kings will take him at #7. Nor will the Jazz at #12. So it's either New York trading up to get him at #12, or Phoenix taking him at #13. For Jimmer's sake, I hope he falls to #15 and the Indiana Pacers (and they have shown no willingness to try to move up to get him, which is a smart play by them: if he falls to them, great, if not, don't trade one of the pieces you already have). I think that's the town, team, and situation that will give Jimmer the best chance at a long, sustained career. The others are iffy. It's all about the situation: look at Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta in the NFL. They were equally prepared for life in the NFL, both very skilled at what they did. Austin Collie ended up as a slot receiver on a team with a phenomenal QB that loves the slot receiver. Pitta ended up on a run-first team that valued a "hand-on-the-ground" TE and had two of them that were better at that than he was. Collie immediately made an impact (and got fantasy owners buzzing). Pitta is still biding his time and hoping for the best at #3 on the depth chart. Had Pitta gone to KC or San Diego, more people than just BYU fans would know who he is!
Talent-wise, Jimmer is clearly in the top 12. I think, of the top 12, he'll have a better career than at least 6 of those guys. But, all the same, I believe that he will get drafted at #12 or #13. Between Phoenix and New York, I say, be a Knick. Score some points and make the playoffs. It will not make me a Knick fan, but he sure has a better chance for Rookie of the Year in New York! Maybe he only scores 12-18 points a game, but he does it in THE spotlight. Irving in Cleveland, Williams in Minnesota (clearly the two BEST players in the draft) will have to create their own spotlight!
Monday, June 20, 2011
Monday, June 13, 2011
The Heat Problem
Everyone is willing to throw the Miami Heat under the bus now that they did NOT deliver on their promised NBA Championship in Year One. Let's be honest, did anybody really think a team starting Joel Anthony at Center was going to win an NBA Title? And really, he was the only C on the roster that played much in the Finals. Excepting D-Wade and Chris Bosh, Lebron had about as good of a supporting cast in Cleveland, if not better than the one he currently has. It's a pretty garbage roster outside the Big Three.
Alright, so let's take a look at Year Two. I believe that the Heat have as good of a roster as they are going to be able to get. They won't go out and make any big moves in free agency; they don't have the cap space. They convinced Mike Bibby to come play for the league minimum when he could have earned 10-15 times that somewhere else. Mario Chalmers is as good a point guard as there is for under $1M a year. Eddie House's D is just bad enough to make his shooting ability irrelevant (see highlight video of Mav's wide open shots in game 6: House is "guarding" the guy almost every time), though somebody might find his stroke and $1.35M contract worth something. Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and James Jones are about as good as anybody at their respective salary levels ($3.5M, $5M, and $1.15M, respectively), though Mike Miller was overpaid relative to his postseason performance. Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, and Jamaal Magloire weren't using up much cap space as they tried to free-ride their way to NBA Championship Rings (a shade under $3.1M combined). They do not currently have a first round draft pick, and with the aforementioned players on the roster, they aren't going to be able to trade for one this year unless they deal one of the Big Three.
No, if the Heat are going to improve, they are going to have to do it internally. Chalmers and Anthony can certainly improve (though I'm not sure Anthony can improve very much) and both gained valuable experience in this year's playoffs. Maybe Dexter Pittman can earn more than 11 minutes next season. Everybody else on the roster is over 30. Most of them are seeing the back end of their careers. They likely won't improve much, and some of them weren't very good to begin with anyways.
So it really comes down to Wade, Bosh, and James playing better together. What more can Wade do to improve as an individual player? He is one of the greats in the game and his biggest thing will be to avoid injury with all the contract he plays through. Bosh can add more post-up to his game and beef up a little bit to help his rebounding: he got knocked around by a perennially soft Dallas team. James can become a more proficient and consistent outside shooter. No question, in Game 6, the Heat were a better offensive team with him on the bench. It's tough to say the chemistry wasn't good between them: they all really like each other. I think it hurt more to not have anybody else on the team that could consistently play on both ends of the floor than whatever chemistry problems they might have had.
Can the Heat get better? Yes, but so can everybody else in the Eastern Conference (most of whom aren't that far behind them to begin with). The difference is: those teams can actually go out and get two or three better players. It's easier to improve your team in free agency and the draft than it is internally. Unless they deal (Bosh is the only realistic possibility to deal and get something of value in return), the Heat can realistically only dump a few veteran salaries and hope to get one more guy that can actually help in the rotation. They can talk a few guys into accepting smaller contracts to play for a contender, but they won't be able to get any Bibby's next year that leave millions on the table. Their biggest problem is: they can only create about $5-6M next season in cap space, which is enough to add one impact role player, or two guys that probably aren't any better than the guys they currently have. It really isn't enough to get a better starting PG or C than what they currently have.
Without a huge deal going down, I don't expect Year Two to end any differently than Year One, only I anticipate it to end one series earlier in 2012. Is it too early for predictions, because I am making one: the Heat may do better in the regular season, but in the playoffs they are going to see tougher teams than they did this season and will not make the NBA Finals. I expect Chicago, New York, Philly, and Indiana to all improve significantly and be tougher "outs" in 2012 Playoffs and, ultimately, one of those four will knock Miami out in or before the Conference Finals, assuming the NBA actually plays next season...
Alright, so let's take a look at Year Two. I believe that the Heat have as good of a roster as they are going to be able to get. They won't go out and make any big moves in free agency; they don't have the cap space. They convinced Mike Bibby to come play for the league minimum when he could have earned 10-15 times that somewhere else. Mario Chalmers is as good a point guard as there is for under $1M a year. Eddie House's D is just bad enough to make his shooting ability irrelevant (see highlight video of Mav's wide open shots in game 6: House is "guarding" the guy almost every time), though somebody might find his stroke and $1.35M contract worth something. Udonis Haslem, Mike Miller, and James Jones are about as good as anybody at their respective salary levels ($3.5M, $5M, and $1.15M, respectively), though Mike Miller was overpaid relative to his postseason performance. Ilgauskas, Juwan Howard, and Jamaal Magloire weren't using up much cap space as they tried to free-ride their way to NBA Championship Rings (a shade under $3.1M combined). They do not currently have a first round draft pick, and with the aforementioned players on the roster, they aren't going to be able to trade for one this year unless they deal one of the Big Three.
No, if the Heat are going to improve, they are going to have to do it internally. Chalmers and Anthony can certainly improve (though I'm not sure Anthony can improve very much) and both gained valuable experience in this year's playoffs. Maybe Dexter Pittman can earn more than 11 minutes next season. Everybody else on the roster is over 30. Most of them are seeing the back end of their careers. They likely won't improve much, and some of them weren't very good to begin with anyways.
So it really comes down to Wade, Bosh, and James playing better together. What more can Wade do to improve as an individual player? He is one of the greats in the game and his biggest thing will be to avoid injury with all the contract he plays through. Bosh can add more post-up to his game and beef up a little bit to help his rebounding: he got knocked around by a perennially soft Dallas team. James can become a more proficient and consistent outside shooter. No question, in Game 6, the Heat were a better offensive team with him on the bench. It's tough to say the chemistry wasn't good between them: they all really like each other. I think it hurt more to not have anybody else on the team that could consistently play on both ends of the floor than whatever chemistry problems they might have had.
Can the Heat get better? Yes, but so can everybody else in the Eastern Conference (most of whom aren't that far behind them to begin with). The difference is: those teams can actually go out and get two or three better players. It's easier to improve your team in free agency and the draft than it is internally. Unless they deal (Bosh is the only realistic possibility to deal and get something of value in return), the Heat can realistically only dump a few veteran salaries and hope to get one more guy that can actually help in the rotation. They can talk a few guys into accepting smaller contracts to play for a contender, but they won't be able to get any Bibby's next year that leave millions on the table. Their biggest problem is: they can only create about $5-6M next season in cap space, which is enough to add one impact role player, or two guys that probably aren't any better than the guys they currently have. It really isn't enough to get a better starting PG or C than what they currently have.
Without a huge deal going down, I don't expect Year Two to end any differently than Year One, only I anticipate it to end one series earlier in 2012. Is it too early for predictions, because I am making one: the Heat may do better in the regular season, but in the playoffs they are going to see tougher teams than they did this season and will not make the NBA Finals. I expect Chicago, New York, Philly, and Indiana to all improve significantly and be tougher "outs" in 2012 Playoffs and, ultimately, one of those four will knock Miami out in or before the Conference Finals, assuming the NBA actually plays next season...
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Dallas' Big 3...
Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Terry, and Jason Kidd. I must admit watching those three celebrate an NBA championship together brought a few tears to my eyes. Over the course of the past several years, those three have shown what a team sport is all about.
Dirk Nowitzki had a chance to leave the Mavs last summer as an unrestricted free agent, at a time when everyone else was jumping ship, setting up dream teams, and demanding trades. Instead, he re-signed with Dallas. There was no guarantee they would go get another star to play with him. He just re-signed for less than the maximum, and Dallas didn't even land a second superstar. But Dirk went forward after first round exits in 3 of 4 years, believing that he could get it done in Dallas. How much bigger is his legacy because he stayed loyal, and he did it "alone?" Dirk and a bunch of role players just won an NBA Title with commitment to tough team defense and dynamic team offense.
Jason Terry got relegated to 6th man after the 2006-2007 season. He had been a starter his whole career (and somewhat of a star dating all the way back to his 1997 NCAA Basketball title with the Arizona Wildcats). He could start for at least 26 teams in the league right now. He didn't demand a trade or whine or complain and run his career into the ground in the process. Instead, he became an even more effective team leader. He found ways to unite when most others in the game today would divide. It takes a special talent to make the clutch plays that Terry did in the NBA Finals. It takes a special character to accept a secondary role and inspire his team to greatness still.
Jason Kidd has been trade bait many times during his 17-year career. He has never complained, he has just gone about his business. He plays with class, works hard, and understands the game of basketball. Everywhere he has gone, he made those teams better. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jason Kidd (and Chauncey Billups who has a similar impact on his teams everywhere he goes). I wish he could have more titles, but I'm afraid he and the other 2 have experienced their one and only NBA Championship: it's just so tough to repeat relying on a bunch of aging veterans coming out of the West (see the 2011 San Antonio Spurs).
I felt like the Big 3 for Dallas exemplify team basketball and I couldn't be happier for all of them in getting their first NBA Titles. Shawn Marion on the other hand...I still can't forget his "I'd rather go be a star on a bad team than be a role player for a Title contender" comment he made while in Phoenix. Oh well, at least he's not Lebron James.
Dirk Nowitzki had a chance to leave the Mavs last summer as an unrestricted free agent, at a time when everyone else was jumping ship, setting up dream teams, and demanding trades. Instead, he re-signed with Dallas. There was no guarantee they would go get another star to play with him. He just re-signed for less than the maximum, and Dallas didn't even land a second superstar. But Dirk went forward after first round exits in 3 of 4 years, believing that he could get it done in Dallas. How much bigger is his legacy because he stayed loyal, and he did it "alone?" Dirk and a bunch of role players just won an NBA Title with commitment to tough team defense and dynamic team offense.
Jason Terry got relegated to 6th man after the 2006-2007 season. He had been a starter his whole career (and somewhat of a star dating all the way back to his 1997 NCAA Basketball title with the Arizona Wildcats). He could start for at least 26 teams in the league right now. He didn't demand a trade or whine or complain and run his career into the ground in the process. Instead, he became an even more effective team leader. He found ways to unite when most others in the game today would divide. It takes a special talent to make the clutch plays that Terry did in the NBA Finals. It takes a special character to accept a secondary role and inspire his team to greatness still.
Jason Kidd has been trade bait many times during his 17-year career. He has never complained, he has just gone about his business. He plays with class, works hard, and understands the game of basketball. Everywhere he has gone, he made those teams better. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Jason Kidd (and Chauncey Billups who has a similar impact on his teams everywhere he goes). I wish he could have more titles, but I'm afraid he and the other 2 have experienced their one and only NBA Championship: it's just so tough to repeat relying on a bunch of aging veterans coming out of the West (see the 2011 San Antonio Spurs).
I felt like the Big 3 for Dallas exemplify team basketball and I couldn't be happier for all of them in getting their first NBA Titles. Shawn Marion on the other hand...I still can't forget his "I'd rather go be a star on a bad team than be a role player for a Title contender" comment he made while in Phoenix. Oh well, at least he's not Lebron James.
Saturday, June 11, 2011
Week 1: Ole Miss Summary
The University of Mississippi:
2010 Record: 4-8, 1-7 in SEC West
Returning Starters: 15 (9 on offense, 4 on defense, K and P)
Significant Coaching Changes: David Lee Offensive Coordinator (previously with Miami Dolphins as QB Coach)
Preseason Projections: Most people have them about 5th place in a strong SEC West and making it to a bowl game.
Key Returners: The Offensive Line (average 6'5" 331 lbs, 66 starts, with a ton of size and experience on the second string too), RB Brandon Bolden (976 yards, 14 TDs), WRs Melvin Harris and Ja-Mes Logan (795 yards, 5 TDs), FS Damien Jackson (68 Tackles, 4.5 Tackles For Loss, 4 Pass Breakups)
Key Losses: The rest of the defense, the top two QBs, and their KR/PR
There will be a more in-depth analysis on Ole Miss coming to Mo Knows soon, but these are the important facts that most people want to know. Clearly the strength of the team is the O-Line and Running Game as they return the entire 2-deep on the O-Line and the top 3 RBs. The defense is green, but that doesn't mean it will not be good. Last year it was poor, but under Tyrone Nix it has typically been a top 20 defense nationally.
I fully anticipate BYU to be favored in the game, but that doesn't mean much, especially in June!
2010 Record: 4-8, 1-7 in SEC West
Returning Starters: 15 (9 on offense, 4 on defense, K and P)
Significant Coaching Changes: David Lee Offensive Coordinator (previously with Miami Dolphins as QB Coach)
Preseason Projections: Most people have them about 5th place in a strong SEC West and making it to a bowl game.
Key Returners: The Offensive Line (average 6'5" 331 lbs, 66 starts, with a ton of size and experience on the second string too), RB Brandon Bolden (976 yards, 14 TDs), WRs Melvin Harris and Ja-Mes Logan (795 yards, 5 TDs), FS Damien Jackson (68 Tackles, 4.5 Tackles For Loss, 4 Pass Breakups)
Key Losses: The rest of the defense, the top two QBs, and their KR/PR
There will be a more in-depth analysis on Ole Miss coming to Mo Knows soon, but these are the important facts that most people want to know. Clearly the strength of the team is the O-Line and Running Game as they return the entire 2-deep on the O-Line and the top 3 RBs. The defense is green, but that doesn't mean it will not be good. Last year it was poor, but under Tyrone Nix it has typically been a top 20 defense nationally.
I fully anticipate BYU to be favored in the game, but that doesn't mean much, especially in June!
Wednesday, June 1, 2011
Utah Will Be Right at Home
Utah's first Pac 12 game is a visit to USC, which dominated the first decade of this millennium. It is sure to be a new experience for most of these Utes. However, the Pac 12 just made an announcement that will help Utah feel right at home: the game will be broadcast on Versus. Of course, they will be making about 12 times more money for this one than any of the previous games they have had on Versus. Still though, I found it rather entertaining.
Utah caught enough breaks the past 12 months, I guess it was bound to catch up with them eventually. They got invited to join a BCS school. Robert Anae gifted them a game against rival BYU. They got to play a top 10 team in a non-BCS bowl game. The Pac 12 decided to give them more money earlier than they were supposed to. Boylen did bad enough to get fired so the Ute basketball program can finally rebuild. And they don't have to play Oregon or Stanford (likely to be the only ranked teams in the Pac12). In fact, for their first season in the Pac 12, they may not play a single ranked team. BYU is probably their best hope to play a ranked team, but they have to win games on the road against an SEC school AND Texas to get there. Lucky...except that their first Pac 12 game, their first trip to the legendary Coliseum in a conference game, is on one of the networks they despised as Mountain West members.
Utah caught enough breaks the past 12 months, I guess it was bound to catch up with them eventually. They got invited to join a BCS school. Robert Anae gifted them a game against rival BYU. They got to play a top 10 team in a non-BCS bowl game. The Pac 12 decided to give them more money earlier than they were supposed to. Boylen did bad enough to get fired so the Ute basketball program can finally rebuild. And they don't have to play Oregon or Stanford (likely to be the only ranked teams in the Pac12). In fact, for their first season in the Pac 12, they may not play a single ranked team. BYU is probably their best hope to play a ranked team, but they have to win games on the road against an SEC school AND Texas to get there. Lucky...except that their first Pac 12 game, their first trip to the legendary Coliseum in a conference game, is on one of the networks they despised as Mountain West members.
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