BYU and the Big East
I was ecstatic to hear that BYU and the Big East have ceased discussions. When they commenced, I mentioned to a buddy at work that BYU would fight for the TV Independence it got when it went Independent, and that is apparently what stalled the talks. I couldn't be happier. I thought it was a bad move from the start.
There are two major positives to joining the Big East: easier BCS access and more meaningful November games. There is no way that BYU could increase access for its fans and exposure to the country by joining the Big East. Well, I suppose the exposure COULD increase in the Big East, since all BYU would have to do would be beat Boise State and they would be all but guaranteed a spot in the conference championship game, and with a win, a BCS game.
I believe that BYU will start to have more meaningful November games. I don't anticipate a steady slate of byes, New Mexico States, and Idahos in future Novembers (though this looks like the case in 2012). Now, I don't anticipate a lot of big-name November matchups, but BYU should be able to get some games against bowl-eligible opponents in November starting in 2013.
Regardless, at the risk of being left out of what may end up being 5 large, major conferences (though I think the Big XII not expanding to 12 will ultimately sink their conference and lead to 4 superconferences), I think BYU needs to pursue Independence, at the very least, through 2013, if not further down the road before even seriously contemplating switching courses.
BYU Basketball Thoughts
BYU is 3-0 against teams that almost certainly won't make the NCAA Tournament. They are 0-2 against teams that probably will make the tournament. With 9 more non-conference games to go, BYU only plays one more certain NCAA Tournament team, with two other fringe teams. BYU Basketball looks very similar to BYU Football right now: they beat the bad teams and lose to the good teams. Right now, they haven't played enough middle teams to find out exactly where they fit in the spectrum. Oregon is their next opportunity to play one: a team that hopes to make the NCAA Tournament but will probably be on the bubble.
In watching several of BYU's games so far this year, one thing is apparent: they miss Jimmer Fredette. Not just because he was Jimmer Fredette either. When teams extend their defense, the Cougars do not have any guard that can put the ball on the floor and create for himself or for others. That is really the one thing the good BYU teams of the 2000's lacked, and what they seriously lack right now in Jimmer's absence. Travis Hansen was pretty good at it, but he wasn't a true guard. Jimmy Balderson occasionally could create for himself (but never for others, and was a complete liability on defense). Against Wisconsin, BYU managed just 1-10 on three pointers. The 10% is obviously problematic, but the lack of confidence is worse. BYU consistently shoots 18 or more 3s in a game. The lack of ability to create open shots completes the trifecta.
Harrison appears to be growing a bit on the guard line. We still are yet to see what Carlino brings to the table, but he's got to be better than Martineau or Cusick. Anson Winder has potential, he certainly is a long body that can move up and down the floor. There is some inexperience there, but I think the fact is that Martineau and Cusick just cannot play the game at the level that BYU needs if they are to take their program to the next level. It will have to be Carlino, Harrison, and Winder that get BYU there.
BYU falt out just needs its guards to play better. But BYU fans are well aware of this. Other than Jimmer, in the years since Danny Ainge they have never had a guard with the toughness and skill to take on aggressive defenses. There is too much church ball in their guard line. Right now, that's what I see from BYU basketball.
I predict a 10-4 or 9-5 finish in the non-conference. I anticipate that Baylor will probably beat BYU in Provo and I'm not sure how good Oregon or Virginia Tech really are right now, but I can't imagine BYU winning both games away from Provo (Oregon is at Energy Solutions in Salt Lake). There shouldn't be any issues dispatching everyone else there.
I would hope for no worse than 12-4 in conference play, though I liked what I saw from Santa Clara in passing a few days (or maybe weeks now?) ago which could revise that down to 11-5 at the worst. BYU should win home games against everyone except perhaps Saint Mary's, and Gonzaga, though I don't believe they lose both of those. They could get nipped in a few conference road games as well, most notably Santa Clara, though I wouldn't count Loyola-Marymount or San Francisco out. At 22-8 prior to the conference tournament, they would be squarely on the bubble, particularly because that would leave them with few quality wins, and none of them away from home.
BYU at Hawaii
I have two big concerns for the Hawaii game. First and foremost, BYU's secondary against athletic, talented players that specialize in the short passing game. Second, Hawaii needs the game to get bowl eligible. Certainly I believe the Warriors motivation to get to a bowl game exceeds BYU's motivation to get to 10 wins.
There are several positives for BYU, however. First, Hawaii is being investigated for point-shaving. Any distraction for Hawaii is a good distraction, as BYU will have plenty to deal with on the islands, i.e. pretty girls in bikinis. Second, Hawaii has been beat twice at home this season. The Islands have not been the fortress of victories that they typically are. Third, this is Hawaii's eighth consecutive week with a game, where BYU has had two byes in the past month. BYU is rested. Hawaii is nicked up. Mobile QB Bryant Moniz is not playing, replaced by statue QB David Graves whose accuracy is questionable at best. Fourth, BYU has proven they can compete and win on the road. They beat Ole Miss and Oregon State, which are similar in talent levels to Hawaii. They competed at Texas and in Arlington against TCU, which are a step-up from Hawaii.
Will the positives outweight the negatives? I don't know. I think the motivation for a bowl game really might be the difference. As a former football player, I can tell you that motivation of that kind only lasts for maybe half the first quarter, and after that, it's just about execution. There may another slight boost immediately after half-time, but again, after that, it's about playing the game. The problem is BYU's recent history of having poor starts and "giving" gifts early in games. If Hawaii gets up 14-0 that first 7.5 minutes with a motivated start, BYU may not recover. I certainly don't anticipate a Jake Heaps-quarterbacked team coming back from that deficit. He isn't the right kind of leader right now to bring a team back from a two-score deficit. Doman isn't the right kind of OC right now to call a game for Heaps that CAN have Heaps bring the team back: he'll call three straight out patterns and if they aren't all complete, BYU has to punt.
Utah's Missed Opportunity
Utah had three missed field goals in a game they lost by 3 points, including two in the fourth quarter, one a chip shot barely longer than an extra point. Had Utah won the game, they would be 8-4 and representing the Pac 12 South in the Conference Championship Game in their first season in the conference, after losses by Arizona State and UCLA over the weekend. However, given that Utah had no experience at RB, little at WR, and a QB coming off shoulder surgery who didn't survive the season, the Utes rebounded well from a sluggish start.
While I wouldn't necessarily call it a successful season for them given what could have been, they did well for themselves. This was clearly a rebuilding year and they competed in most of their Pac 12 games. The three conference losses at home hurt though, considering it was against 7-5 Washington, 6-6 Arizona State, and 3-10 Colorado. However, as with BYU's young team, they have a lot to look forward to next season. The young bucks that cost them games against USC and Colorado, and prevented them from being in games against Washington, Arizona State, and at Cal, will be that much more experienced and familiar with program expectations next season.
But let's face it, they were thoroughly outplayed in all of their losses, even if the scoreboard was close. This was my biggest criticism of them in the MWC, they tend to play to the level of their competition. They should have beaten ASU, won at Cal, and destroyed Colorado. They often gave similar efforts against CSU, Wyoming, or UNLV. The talent disparity was such that they could overcome it more often than not. They have to come more prepared every week in the Pac 12 or it will cost them, as it did this season. Talent-wise, they match up RIGHT NOW with 8 of the other 11 schools in the conference. And it's not the "grind of the season" that they can't handle, as they reeled off four wins in a row in late October through November. It's the same problem they have always had: bringing their A-game every week. Utah cannot win with its B-game in the Pac 12. They match up with, they aren't better than, their competition. This ain't Little Sisters of the Poor anymore.
Monday, November 28, 2011
Saturday, November 19, 2011
New Mexico State-BYU Preview, 11/19/2011
Sorry, the internet has been down at our house the past two weeks, and even now it's only working intermittently. So BYU trounced Idaho, dispatched them with little issue. No surprise. The only thing I was really curious to see from BYU last week was the mindset. After going 0-3 against its bowl-bound opponents, and 6-0 against the rest, I was curious how they would come out of the gates. They stormed out to a big lead and never looked back. With Riley's injury, it also reaffirmed to me that while Riley turned it around, once the ship was righted against Utah State, Heaps or Nelson would have yielded about the same record. Even James Lark looked decent last week in the win. BYU needed Nelson to beat Utah State, that much was obvious, but I think BYU would have lost to TCU and beat everyone else with any of the three QBs. It was just a product of the schedule. There were three teams better than BYU on the schedule, and BYU will have at least 3 losses. Obviously, there is more to add to the story with each passing week, especially with Nelson on the shelf.
BYU's O vs. NMSU's D
There are few teams with worse defenses than New Mexico State. In fact, I would argue of the 120 FBS schools, only Memphis and Troy have worse defenses. They rank 111th in total D, 112th in scoring, 96th in passing, and 107th in rushing. And that was against one of the easiest schedules in college football. I anticipate that BYU will come out with the kind of attack we thought we'd see all season: hit the ground running and taking shots with the play-action passing game. Heaps throws for 200, completing 60% of his passes. Maybe BYU finally has a RB get over 100 yards in a game, though I don't know if that will happen. BYU has four RBs averaging 6 carries or more a game. There just aren't enough carries, it seems, for someone to get 100 without breaking a 40-yarder or longer.
So BYU puts up 7 or 8 scores, putting up somewhere between 42 to 52 points. NMSU hasn't really stopped anybody all season. 5 teams have put up over 40 points on NMSU, and some of those teams don't have offenses as good as BYU's.
BYU's D vs. NMSU's O
My gambling buddies asked me if BYU could cover a 23-point spread. BYU's weakness is the short passing game, NMSU's strength is the short passing game. How many slants and hitches will BYU see today? My guess is A LOT. Can BYU's OLBs get in passing lanes? Can BYU's front three bat down passes and push the pocket early? That will decide it.
Even then, it's tough to come from behind. A "shootout" I expect, but that could amount to 20 points for New Mexico State. They've got some "big play" guys but those are usually run-after-the-catch type of plays. BYU has actually done decently at that this season, comparatively speaking. NMSU doesn't go down the field much, but BYU will have to be ready for the 3 or 4 shots they will take.
Prediction
BYU mauls, 45-17. Heaps looks good. Backups get playing time. And BYU goes into the Hawaii game in two weeks at a completely unsensational 8-3. The real question is: does BYU accept that Big East invitation? For reasons I will lay out later next week (if our internet gets working again): I hope not! I have tried to rationalize it, but all I can come up with is why BYU might WANT to join, I can't get myself to get to "why they SHOULD join."
BYU's O vs. NMSU's D
There are few teams with worse defenses than New Mexico State. In fact, I would argue of the 120 FBS schools, only Memphis and Troy have worse defenses. They rank 111th in total D, 112th in scoring, 96th in passing, and 107th in rushing. And that was against one of the easiest schedules in college football. I anticipate that BYU will come out with the kind of attack we thought we'd see all season: hit the ground running and taking shots with the play-action passing game. Heaps throws for 200, completing 60% of his passes. Maybe BYU finally has a RB get over 100 yards in a game, though I don't know if that will happen. BYU has four RBs averaging 6 carries or more a game. There just aren't enough carries, it seems, for someone to get 100 without breaking a 40-yarder or longer.
So BYU puts up 7 or 8 scores, putting up somewhere between 42 to 52 points. NMSU hasn't really stopped anybody all season. 5 teams have put up over 40 points on NMSU, and some of those teams don't have offenses as good as BYU's.
BYU's D vs. NMSU's O
My gambling buddies asked me if BYU could cover a 23-point spread. BYU's weakness is the short passing game, NMSU's strength is the short passing game. How many slants and hitches will BYU see today? My guess is A LOT. Can BYU's OLBs get in passing lanes? Can BYU's front three bat down passes and push the pocket early? That will decide it.
Even then, it's tough to come from behind. A "shootout" I expect, but that could amount to 20 points for New Mexico State. They've got some "big play" guys but those are usually run-after-the-catch type of plays. BYU has actually done decently at that this season, comparatively speaking. NMSU doesn't go down the field much, but BYU will have to be ready for the 3 or 4 shots they will take.
Prediction
BYU mauls, 45-17. Heaps looks good. Backups get playing time. And BYU goes into the Hawaii game in two weeks at a completely unsensational 8-3. The real question is: does BYU accept that Big East invitation? For reasons I will lay out later next week (if our internet gets working again): I hope not! I have tried to rationalize it, but all I can come up with is why BYU might WANT to join, I can't get myself to get to "why they SHOULD join."
Monday, November 7, 2011
Back Online
I'm sure you have all been anxiously awaiting my next post ever since BYU's loss to TCU. Well, I am sorry to disappoint, but I'm back now. Today at least. I leave for New Hampshire in about 2 hours and won't be able to get anything else out for you guys until at least Wednesday night. So, now some thoughts.
TCU Recap
BYU just can't seem to get out of their own way sometimes. Like Boomer pointed out, Nelson (and BYU as a whole) has been mistake prone, but they have been playing against inferior opponents that couldn't take advantage of it. Texas, Utah, and TCU were all good enough. Ole Miss almost was. As were Central Florida and Utah State. Hence the 6-3 record (with only one more game against a team that MIGHT be good enough in Hawaii). Against Utah and TCU, BYU spotted them big leads. With Heaps, BYU couldn't even come close to making the come back, and it spiraled out of control and got worse. With Nelson, BYU was one bogus personal foul call away from having a legitimate chance to complete the come back.
Regardless, BYU cannot give away big leads to anybody. It only looks worse when BYU does it on the big stage against good opponents. BYU outplayed TCU for most of the game. The first and last five minutes of the first half continue to kill BYU. Right now, BYU is an average team with potential to be a good team. I believe next year, with everything BYU has coming back on both sides of the ball, BYU SHOULD be a good team, with potential to be a great team. But, mentally, there has been something amiss with BYU since Max Hall left. I think they lost so many seniors, that the guys who have played the last two years just don't know what it takes to be good. They don't know how to play within themselves. They don't know how to get out of their own way and just play football. They clearly can compete, having done so against all odds at Texas and against TCU.
Boise State vs. Alabama
Right now, Alabama holds a slight lead against Boise State in the polls and computers, which adds up to a decent lead in the BCS standings. Can they catch Alabama? I know I'm alone in this, but looking at the numbers and remaining schedule, they can be close enough in the computers to put the onus on the voters.
Right now, Alabama's best win is Arkansas at home. Boise State played Georgia on a neutral site. Slight edge to Bama (Boise gets more credit for a non-home win, so the difference in computer rankings nearly evens out). But if Arkansas loses again (say at LSU for example) and Georgia continues to win and gets a shot in the SEC Title Game, that can change. Bama's next best win is against Penn State, which looks good right now. Except that Penn State will lose two more games this season. Tulsa is actually a very strong computer opponent, ranking in the low 20's. Tulsa should win its next two games before a showdown Thanksgiving Weekend against what might be a top 10 Houston team. The win over Tulsa may end up being a stronger computer resume game for Boise than Bama's win at Penn State. Crazy, I know, but true. As far as the rest of the already played schedule goes, it's only a slight edge to Bama, because Bama actually got a reasonably easy road through the SEC this season. If you look at the overall computer rankings, Bama only leads Boise State by 5%, so the schedule advantage goes to Bama, but it's closer than you might think. It helps that Georgia leads the SEC East, Toledo is playing well, and Nevada looks almost equivalent in the computers to Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
Looking ahead to future games, Boise State plays TCU at home and Bama travels to Mississippi State. These are essentially equivalent games. The following week, Bama plays Georgia Southern while Boise travels to San Diego State. This might be the week where Boise State pulls even with, or maybe even ahead of, Bama. Then things really get interesting. Bama goes to Auburn, which is clearly better than either of Boise State's final two games. However, Boise State getting two wins, regardless of how "bad" they are, against Bama only getting one win is an interesting thing to watch.
Again, I don't think Boise State can pass Bama in the computer polls. So the voters will have to decide. Bama's lead will be close enough that it really will be up to voters, and I think Boise State would shoot over Bama the last weekend if it comes down to it. I watched that whole freaking game on Saturday night: I do NOT want to see a rematch of that ugly, mistake-filled game. I can watch a replay of BYU-TCU for that.
Of course, this only matters if two of the LSU, OK State, and Stanford trio lose. LSU's biggest threat is the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. OK State has to play an Oklahoma team that just lost its leading rushing and receiver in the past two weeks. Stanford is dinged up and has to play Oregon this week, but that is really its last test.
The other BCS item of any real debate: what happens if Boise State and Houston are both undefeated? Does a 13-0 Houston team get a shot, when its only win against a ranked opponent will come against Southern Mississippi in the C-USA Title game?
Heaps Going Forward
I think Nelson's mistakes have been overlooked b/c he is at least moving the ball and scoring some points. Heaps biggest problem was the number of three and outs. His completion percentage was around 50%, which won't move the chains when the play calls go pass, run, pass. He can't make up for his 50% in any way. Nelson can. Therefore, as long as he doesn't turn it over, BYU has a good chance to get at least one first down.
I don't see Heaps transfering, though there are "rumors" he might, which were started by random people on the internet. I will not perpetuate that myth. I don't believe Heaps has put ANY thought into that at this point, so for someone to claim to have "inside knowledge" into what Heaps is thinking is ridiculous. Maybe after the season he might consider it, but if he has been thinking about it mid-season, I don't want him QB-ing for BYU anyway, let him go. I don't believe he has been though. In his mind, I think he feels he has a very good chance to get back in this thing. With how much Riley runs, it could be Heaps' team again two plays into the next game!
What I could see happening though is Heaps redshirting next season. I believe James Lark is probably a very decent back-up QB. Why not give him a shot at that next season and not "waste" an entire year for Heaps? Give Heaps a chance at the starting job for two years in 2013 and 2014.
TCU Recap
BYU just can't seem to get out of their own way sometimes. Like Boomer pointed out, Nelson (and BYU as a whole) has been mistake prone, but they have been playing against inferior opponents that couldn't take advantage of it. Texas, Utah, and TCU were all good enough. Ole Miss almost was. As were Central Florida and Utah State. Hence the 6-3 record (with only one more game against a team that MIGHT be good enough in Hawaii). Against Utah and TCU, BYU spotted them big leads. With Heaps, BYU couldn't even come close to making the come back, and it spiraled out of control and got worse. With Nelson, BYU was one bogus personal foul call away from having a legitimate chance to complete the come back.
Regardless, BYU cannot give away big leads to anybody. It only looks worse when BYU does it on the big stage against good opponents. BYU outplayed TCU for most of the game. The first and last five minutes of the first half continue to kill BYU. Right now, BYU is an average team with potential to be a good team. I believe next year, with everything BYU has coming back on both sides of the ball, BYU SHOULD be a good team, with potential to be a great team. But, mentally, there has been something amiss with BYU since Max Hall left. I think they lost so many seniors, that the guys who have played the last two years just don't know what it takes to be good. They don't know how to play within themselves. They don't know how to get out of their own way and just play football. They clearly can compete, having done so against all odds at Texas and against TCU.
Boise State vs. Alabama
Right now, Alabama holds a slight lead against Boise State in the polls and computers, which adds up to a decent lead in the BCS standings. Can they catch Alabama? I know I'm alone in this, but looking at the numbers and remaining schedule, they can be close enough in the computers to put the onus on the voters.
Right now, Alabama's best win is Arkansas at home. Boise State played Georgia on a neutral site. Slight edge to Bama (Boise gets more credit for a non-home win, so the difference in computer rankings nearly evens out). But if Arkansas loses again (say at LSU for example) and Georgia continues to win and gets a shot in the SEC Title Game, that can change. Bama's next best win is against Penn State, which looks good right now. Except that Penn State will lose two more games this season. Tulsa is actually a very strong computer opponent, ranking in the low 20's. Tulsa should win its next two games before a showdown Thanksgiving Weekend against what might be a top 10 Houston team. The win over Tulsa may end up being a stronger computer resume game for Boise than Bama's win at Penn State. Crazy, I know, but true. As far as the rest of the already played schedule goes, it's only a slight edge to Bama, because Bama actually got a reasonably easy road through the SEC this season. If you look at the overall computer rankings, Bama only leads Boise State by 5%, so the schedule advantage goes to Bama, but it's closer than you might think. It helps that Georgia leads the SEC East, Toledo is playing well, and Nevada looks almost equivalent in the computers to Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
Looking ahead to future games, Boise State plays TCU at home and Bama travels to Mississippi State. These are essentially equivalent games. The following week, Bama plays Georgia Southern while Boise travels to San Diego State. This might be the week where Boise State pulls even with, or maybe even ahead of, Bama. Then things really get interesting. Bama goes to Auburn, which is clearly better than either of Boise State's final two games. However, Boise State getting two wins, regardless of how "bad" they are, against Bama only getting one win is an interesting thing to watch.
Again, I don't think Boise State can pass Bama in the computer polls. So the voters will have to decide. Bama's lead will be close enough that it really will be up to voters, and I think Boise State would shoot over Bama the last weekend if it comes down to it. I watched that whole freaking game on Saturday night: I do NOT want to see a rematch of that ugly, mistake-filled game. I can watch a replay of BYU-TCU for that.
Of course, this only matters if two of the LSU, OK State, and Stanford trio lose. LSU's biggest threat is the SEC Championship Game against Georgia. OK State has to play an Oklahoma team that just lost its leading rushing and receiver in the past two weeks. Stanford is dinged up and has to play Oregon this week, but that is really its last test.
The other BCS item of any real debate: what happens if Boise State and Houston are both undefeated? Does a 13-0 Houston team get a shot, when its only win against a ranked opponent will come against Southern Mississippi in the C-USA Title game?
Heaps Going Forward
I think Nelson's mistakes have been overlooked b/c he is at least moving the ball and scoring some points. Heaps biggest problem was the number of three and outs. His completion percentage was around 50%, which won't move the chains when the play calls go pass, run, pass. He can't make up for his 50% in any way. Nelson can. Therefore, as long as he doesn't turn it over, BYU has a good chance to get at least one first down.
I don't see Heaps transfering, though there are "rumors" he might, which were started by random people on the internet. I will not perpetuate that myth. I don't believe Heaps has put ANY thought into that at this point, so for someone to claim to have "inside knowledge" into what Heaps is thinking is ridiculous. Maybe after the season he might consider it, but if he has been thinking about it mid-season, I don't want him QB-ing for BYU anyway, let him go. I don't believe he has been though. In his mind, I think he feels he has a very good chance to get back in this thing. With how much Riley runs, it could be Heaps' team again two plays into the next game!
What I could see happening though is Heaps redshirting next season. I believe James Lark is probably a very decent back-up QB. Why not give him a shot at that next season and not "waste" an entire year for Heaps? Give Heaps a chance at the starting job for two years in 2013 and 2014.
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