There is a lot of speculation that BYU may end up in the Big XII. And soon. While I admit, BYU should consider long and hard any invitation by a BCS conference, I hate that it may come at this time in the history of BYU sports. Ideally, I would like to see BYU have a good 2-4 years as an Independent and WCC member before having to make any decisions about conference realignment. As skeptical as I was initially about BYU's move to Independence, now I think it may ultimately be better for them than a BCS conference would be.
BCS Access is a big issue for BYU fans. BYU is guaranteed of nothing in terms of the BCS as it stands right now. However, I think if BYU ever has a season where they are good enough to make a BCS game, they will make it as an Independent anyway and don't need the conference affiliation. BYU has only once had a team that stood a chance in a BCS conference in the BCS era and didn't have a chance at a BCS game (the 2006 team could have snuck a Big XII North Title and had a shot against Oklahoma in the Big XII Title Game, I don't think the 2001 team had a chance to win a BCS conference: they were a "gimmick" team which doesn't last 8 games in a BCS conference). If they deserve it, they'll get it as an Indy.
First, the schedule is easier as an Independent, but not so much so as to put up red flags to the people making those decisions. BYU's future schedules will hold a number of BCS conference opponents and several other "name" programs. However, there are 1-3 more "easy" games than BYU will ever see as a member of a BCS conference. Plus, if the Big XII expanded to 12, BYU would have the additional difficulty of having to win a conference championship game.
Second, BYU has the most powerful partner in the BCS World: ESPN. They have all the national exposure they could possibly want. They will have 7-11 games on ESPN or ESPN2 every single season for the foreseeable future. When they aren't on ESPN, they will be on NBC playing Notre Dame, or have rights to broadcast the game on BYUTV for their own fanbase. Either way, the highlights of those games will be available to ESPN if they want them. If BYU is 11-1 and in the top 10, they should get an invite to a BCS game. If they are 12-0 it is an absolute certainty. Everyone will know who BYU is in those seasons. The only difference in BCS access for BYU is that on a year where they don't belong in a BCS game, they might get lucky and find a way to sneak in if they are in a BCS conference (like Connecticut in the Big East last season).
Third, the money doesn't really matter. Yes, BYU would get an additional $2-3M for membership in a BCS conference. They would get an additional $2-3M in TV revenue. Yes, that is a lot of money. But BYU doesn't NEED that money. Considering they just increased their revenue by a factor of 10 this past off-season, an additional $6M would be nice, but BYU is going to be just fine without it. It's sports are decently funded. The donors are still giving money. The fans are still showing up, and paying for tickets, and buying merchandise, and eating concessions, and looking at advertisements around the stadium, etc.
BYU doesn't really need the Big XII right now, certainly not as much as the reports say the Big XII needs BYU. The access would be nice, the exposure might actually go down, and the money would be nice. But BYU doesn't need any of that right now. I really believe that BYU has a good chance to make Independence work. But if they don't make it work, and they turned down a BCS conference invitation, that would be an unreconcilable error. The problem really is, BYU may have to make that decision before they have a legitimate sample size. They'll have to make the decision on revelation alone! While I really wish BYU had 2 or 3 years before being presented with the decision, if it comes now, I actually hope BYU turns it down, which I recognize would be a very difficult thing to do. BYU is set for at least 5 years in my mind with scheduling and with the ESPN contract. Certainly, the landscape will change significantly enough in the next 5 years that it's not necessarily a now-or-never proposition. But hey, it's a win-win either way: both paths are a giant step up from the MWC.
A lot has to happen before any of this even plays out, but since people are out there talking about it, I thought I'd add my two cents: I hope BYU holds out. [Besides, I doubt the Big XII would make enough concessions to BYU to change their minds. There can only be one uber-demanding school in the conference, and Texas bows to no one, at least off the field. We'll find more out about that on the field in less than two weeks. I'll be there in Austin for that game. Go Cougars!]
What are your thoughts? Fears? What do you want to see happen? How do you see it playing out?
Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Sunday, August 28, 2011
MWC Predictions, 2011
While BYU and Utah are no longer in the MWC, I am sure fans of both schools have SOME interest in how the conference will shake out this season. Remember that the Utes and Cougars competed in the same conference with a lot of these schools for 30, 40, 50 years or more. Even if you aren't taking the time to follow the MWC (or spending the money to get the crappy channels) anymore, I am sure there is interest in how it plays out. With a shortened conference schedule (7 games instead of 8), there are likely to be more "ties" in the standings than in recent memory. This is Boise State's first rodeo in the MWC, so we'll see how they make that adjustment. This is Air Force's best shot to compete for a conference title in some time. TCU has some rebuilding, so there is question as to how quickly that will come. SDSU made strides last year, but lost their Head Coach. CSU looks like they'll have a good enough team and easy enough schedule to get to a bowl. Without further ado, here is how I see the standings (I break ties by head-to-head matchups, though the MWC does not officially make such distinctions):
1. Boise State 7-0
2. Air Force 5-2
3. TCU 5-2
4. CSU 4-3
5. SDSU 4-3
6. Wyoming 2-5
7. New Mexico 1-6
8. UNLV 0-7
Boise State
Boise State is clearly the class of the league. A lot of people are concerned about replacing so much of their production at WR with Titus Young and Austin Pettis graduating. First off, they return 12 receiving TDs and 3 players that averaged 2 catches or more per game last season, which isn't exactly starting from scratch. Secondly, their first conference game is October 15th against Colorado State, so they have 5 games and 6 weeks to find their go-to WRs (they have them on the roster, one or two of them just need to step up). The real question is if they can go undefeated in conference or not (2003 was the last season the MWC Champ didn't go undefeated in conference play).
The MWC game I think they would drop, if they drop one, is the one at SDSU on November 19th. At that point, they will be 4-0 in the MWC, seemingly past the game of the year the previous week against TCU, it is the perfect spot for a letdown, and against a quality, well-coached team. I believe they will likely make a BCS game, though I am not sure they need to be, or will be, 12-0. At 11-1, they would certainly qualify for an automatic BCS bid, being ranked in the top 12 in the final BCS Standings and being the highest ranked non-BCS champion.
[For BYU fans that are curious, IF-big, capital IF-BYU were 12-0 and ranked higher than Boise State, Boise State would still garner the auto-bid because it isn't awarded to the highest non-BCS school in the BCS Standings, it is awarded to the highest non-BCS conference champion. So don't cry foul, IF that scenario plays out. Again, I emphasize the big, emphatic IF.]
Air Force
While I believe that TCU will ultimately be a better team than Air Force by season's end, I have the Falcons "upsetting" the Horned Frogs in week 2 to take 2nd place in the MWC. The lost time Air Force lost a conference opener was back in 1999 (10-7 to Wyoming in the inaugural season for the MWC). The last time they lost a conference home opener was to Utah in 2008, in a game in which they fumbled twice in the fourth quarter to let Utah escape with a 7-point win (and eventual Sugar Bowl win).
Now back to 2011: this is an experienced Falcon team. They start juniors and seniors across the board (the lone sophomore starter was a starter last year as a freshman). They are dangerous on special teams with Jonathan Warzeka and Anthony Wright returnings kickoffs and punts, respectively, and Erik Soderberg handling the kicking duties. The defense is always undersized, but very aggressive. They finished 28th in the country in scoring defense a year ago (a somewhat misleading stat because their offense eats up so much clock, but still, it's impressive for the Academy), and they return 8 starters from last season's Commander-In-Chief Trophy-winning defense. I've got the Falcons around 9-3, maybe dropping to 8-4 if they fall to Navy on October 1st, but with the head-to-head victory over TCU, they are 2nd in the MWC in my book.
However, the bowl game outlook is a bit bleak for the Falcons. Boise State will go to a BCS game and the Vegas and Poinsettia Bowls get the next choice. I think the 2nd place Falcons may fall to the Independence, Armed Forces, or New Mexico Bowl. The selection process is a bit screwy with those three bowls and they are allowed to "trade" with each other, so which one ultimately takes the Falcons is a coin flip. The Vegas Bowl will probably want to pit their Pac 12 team (most predictions have Utah or Washington) up against a soon-to-be BCS conference team in TCU. The Poinsettia Bowl is already committed to taking Navy and I doubt they'll want to put those two together in a rematch.
TCU
TCU has a lot of rebuilding to do. They lost their QB (which I believe is the biggest loss for any team in the entire country excluding Heisman Trophy Winner and National Champion Cam Newton, Dalton was THAT good), 3 of their top 4 WRs/TEs, 4 starters on the OL, and most of the non-LBs from the defense. The experts all say they have recruited well over the past 5 years and they shouldn't miss a beat. The only reason "they" make this argument is because they have zero respect for the MWC (which is true for half the conference).
TCU hasn't had a top 25 recruiting class ever. Last year's class, which most sites rank between 26-30 was the first ever to even break the top 40, but if TCU has to rely on those incoming freshmen to be competitive this year, it's going to be a long season (BYU fans should know that from last year). Up until 3 seasons ago, TCU had never even cracked the top 50 in recruiting rankings. This screams rebuilding year for TCU. Perhaps one of the telltale signs of that is that TCU does not have much representation, at all, in preseason MWC teams. Obviously those teams aren't a great measure of how good a team will be (just like preseason media picks aren't a great measure of actual post-season standings), but given how TCU completely dominated those preseason all conference teams the past two seasons, it should be indicative of just how many question marks there are. The fact that I still think they can probably go 5-2 in the MWC and 9-3/8-4 overall (and won't be worse than 4-3 in the MWC and 7-5 overall), does say something about how they have distinguished themselves from the rest of the conference and where they are right now as a program. That is a rebuilding year most schools would dream of. Besides the MWC losses to Air Force and Boise State, they only have one other tough conference game: at SDSU on October 8th, their 6th game in 6 weeks, where SDSU will be coming off a bye. There isn't anyone else in the conference that should be able to touch them.
Colorado State
The CSU and SDSU 4th/5th place finish is pretty certain. SDSU is the better team, CSU has the better schedule. Ultimately, I think they'll both go 4-3 in conference, but CSU, with the head-to-head match-up in Fort Collins in November, goes in at number 4. However, my prediction is entirely based on the schedule, as SDSU should clearly put a better product on the field. A cold game, at altitude, late in the season: the edge has to go to CSU there.
CSU returns 14 starters, plus a kicker and punter from last year's 3-9 debacle, including the 44-0 blowout to end the season against rival Wyoming. CSU should get to a bowl game this season though, however, because the schedule gets much lighter (honestly, I think their schedule from last year to this year is probably one of the biggest changes for any team in the country, Phil Steele did call it THE biggest easing of schedules in I-A this season). Last season their non-conference schedule included 2 conference champions and a 5-7 BCS conference opponent. This season, their non-conference slate is I-AA, Colorado, Utah State, San Jose State, and UTEP. Two of them might make bowl games, but it would be by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin (I think Utah State goes 6-6, CU goes 6-7 and doesn't make eligibility, and UTEP probably wins 5 games or less). They should be able to manage at least 3 wins in the non-conference, and a minimum of 3 in the MWC (at New Mexico, at UNLV, and Wyoming at home).
San Diego State
SDSU is starting essentially from scratch at WR, but returns everything else on offense. Defensively, they only return 5 starters, but the new starters have a lot of experience. They are a little thin on the defensive line, which is a major reason why I think they drop that November 12th game against CSU. That late in the season, I will give the edge to CSU's OL that averages 6'4" and 300+ pounds, at altitude, with a late afternoon kickoff (and temperatures below freezing). SDSU will ultimately become a very competitive team with Boise State and Hawaii in the MWC. I think Rocky Long is the right guy for the job. He got a lot out of his New Mexico teams with zero talent. Hoke did a get job getting this program set up, but Rocky Long will stick around and build a long-term winner in San Diego.
The Red-Headed Step-Children
6th, 7th, and 8th place are the reason most people don't look at the MWC with any respect. Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV are historically not really good teams. But the past few seasons (and I suspect this season especially), they will be historically bad. I would actually be shocked if UNLV didn't win a single conference game, but I just don't see who it's going to be against right now. Wyoming gets New Mexico and UNLV at home. New Mexico gets UNLV at home. None of them will compete in more than 1 or 2 games against the other 5 teams in the league. So the only wins available for them are against each other. There is not much of any home field advantage for any of these teams, but still, bad teams play poorly on the road regardless of the opponent or the crowd.
Wyoming tops out at 5 wins, no way they get more than that (and they play two I-AA teams so they would need 7 to get to a bowl game anyway). I could see New Mexico getting as many as 4, but there isn't really much hope for a team that schedules their homecoming game as a I-AA opponent. UNLV has a tough schedule and doesn't have the team to back it up. If they can find a way to beat I-AA opponent Southern Utah, they will 1-4 before making a trip to Laramie on October 15th for their first chance at a real win. Their MWC home games are all losses: CSU, Boise State, SDSU. I don't see where they win more than 2 games.
So there you have my thoughts on the new-look MWC. Just by way of information, I am aware of a lot of the preseason predictions that are out there. However, I do all of my own research and do not rely on any of the "experts" and their predictions because they only really do their homework on schools that "matter" on the national landscape. A lot of it is based on perceived quality of team without any regard for difficulty of schedule. Even the MWC Media is a bit of a joke when it comes to preseason prognostications, and all they have to do is research their 8 schools. Preseason polls are obviously worthless, in retrospect, yet we all love them.
One specific example of how ridiculous they can be: TCU is ranked #15 in preseason polls. Perhaps you could argue that TCU has "earned" their preseason ranking with their success the past 3 seasons, but still, if ANY team in a BCS conference lost what TCU did, they would be lucky to be ranked at all (like Auburn who won the NC last year but lost EVERYBODY). That is my biggest beef with this year's preseason top 25. TCU is not the 15th best team in the country right now, nor will they be by season's end. Here is where I think there now exists a bias towards non-BCS teams. "If a non-BCS school had a great year, the next year they'll be great again because they didn't play anybody last season and won't again this season." Yes, they won the Rose Bowl, but their reward was a #2 ranking at the end of last season, they shouldn't get rewarded for that again this year. TCU is not nearly as good this year and they play a more difficult schedule. 9 wins. Tops.
1. Boise State 7-0
2. Air Force 5-2
3. TCU 5-2
4. CSU 4-3
5. SDSU 4-3
6. Wyoming 2-5
7. New Mexico 1-6
8. UNLV 0-7
Boise State
Boise State is clearly the class of the league. A lot of people are concerned about replacing so much of their production at WR with Titus Young and Austin Pettis graduating. First off, they return 12 receiving TDs and 3 players that averaged 2 catches or more per game last season, which isn't exactly starting from scratch. Secondly, their first conference game is October 15th against Colorado State, so they have 5 games and 6 weeks to find their go-to WRs (they have them on the roster, one or two of them just need to step up). The real question is if they can go undefeated in conference or not (2003 was the last season the MWC Champ didn't go undefeated in conference play).
The MWC game I think they would drop, if they drop one, is the one at SDSU on November 19th. At that point, they will be 4-0 in the MWC, seemingly past the game of the year the previous week against TCU, it is the perfect spot for a letdown, and against a quality, well-coached team. I believe they will likely make a BCS game, though I am not sure they need to be, or will be, 12-0. At 11-1, they would certainly qualify for an automatic BCS bid, being ranked in the top 12 in the final BCS Standings and being the highest ranked non-BCS champion.
[For BYU fans that are curious, IF-big, capital IF-BYU were 12-0 and ranked higher than Boise State, Boise State would still garner the auto-bid because it isn't awarded to the highest non-BCS school in the BCS Standings, it is awarded to the highest non-BCS conference champion. So don't cry foul, IF that scenario plays out. Again, I emphasize the big, emphatic IF.]
Air Force
While I believe that TCU will ultimately be a better team than Air Force by season's end, I have the Falcons "upsetting" the Horned Frogs in week 2 to take 2nd place in the MWC. The lost time Air Force lost a conference opener was back in 1999 (10-7 to Wyoming in the inaugural season for the MWC). The last time they lost a conference home opener was to Utah in 2008, in a game in which they fumbled twice in the fourth quarter to let Utah escape with a 7-point win (and eventual Sugar Bowl win).
Now back to 2011: this is an experienced Falcon team. They start juniors and seniors across the board (the lone sophomore starter was a starter last year as a freshman). They are dangerous on special teams with Jonathan Warzeka and Anthony Wright returnings kickoffs and punts, respectively, and Erik Soderberg handling the kicking duties. The defense is always undersized, but very aggressive. They finished 28th in the country in scoring defense a year ago (a somewhat misleading stat because their offense eats up so much clock, but still, it's impressive for the Academy), and they return 8 starters from last season's Commander-In-Chief Trophy-winning defense. I've got the Falcons around 9-3, maybe dropping to 8-4 if they fall to Navy on October 1st, but with the head-to-head victory over TCU, they are 2nd in the MWC in my book.
However, the bowl game outlook is a bit bleak for the Falcons. Boise State will go to a BCS game and the Vegas and Poinsettia Bowls get the next choice. I think the 2nd place Falcons may fall to the Independence, Armed Forces, or New Mexico Bowl. The selection process is a bit screwy with those three bowls and they are allowed to "trade" with each other, so which one ultimately takes the Falcons is a coin flip. The Vegas Bowl will probably want to pit their Pac 12 team (most predictions have Utah or Washington) up against a soon-to-be BCS conference team in TCU. The Poinsettia Bowl is already committed to taking Navy and I doubt they'll want to put those two together in a rematch.
TCU
TCU has a lot of rebuilding to do. They lost their QB (which I believe is the biggest loss for any team in the entire country excluding Heisman Trophy Winner and National Champion Cam Newton, Dalton was THAT good), 3 of their top 4 WRs/TEs, 4 starters on the OL, and most of the non-LBs from the defense. The experts all say they have recruited well over the past 5 years and they shouldn't miss a beat. The only reason "they" make this argument is because they have zero respect for the MWC (which is true for half the conference).
TCU hasn't had a top 25 recruiting class ever. Last year's class, which most sites rank between 26-30 was the first ever to even break the top 40, but if TCU has to rely on those incoming freshmen to be competitive this year, it's going to be a long season (BYU fans should know that from last year). Up until 3 seasons ago, TCU had never even cracked the top 50 in recruiting rankings. This screams rebuilding year for TCU. Perhaps one of the telltale signs of that is that TCU does not have much representation, at all, in preseason MWC teams. Obviously those teams aren't a great measure of how good a team will be (just like preseason media picks aren't a great measure of actual post-season standings), but given how TCU completely dominated those preseason all conference teams the past two seasons, it should be indicative of just how many question marks there are. The fact that I still think they can probably go 5-2 in the MWC and 9-3/8-4 overall (and won't be worse than 4-3 in the MWC and 7-5 overall), does say something about how they have distinguished themselves from the rest of the conference and where they are right now as a program. That is a rebuilding year most schools would dream of. Besides the MWC losses to Air Force and Boise State, they only have one other tough conference game: at SDSU on October 8th, their 6th game in 6 weeks, where SDSU will be coming off a bye. There isn't anyone else in the conference that should be able to touch them.
Colorado State
The CSU and SDSU 4th/5th place finish is pretty certain. SDSU is the better team, CSU has the better schedule. Ultimately, I think they'll both go 4-3 in conference, but CSU, with the head-to-head match-up in Fort Collins in November, goes in at number 4. However, my prediction is entirely based on the schedule, as SDSU should clearly put a better product on the field. A cold game, at altitude, late in the season: the edge has to go to CSU there.
CSU returns 14 starters, plus a kicker and punter from last year's 3-9 debacle, including the 44-0 blowout to end the season against rival Wyoming. CSU should get to a bowl game this season though, however, because the schedule gets much lighter (honestly, I think their schedule from last year to this year is probably one of the biggest changes for any team in the country, Phil Steele did call it THE biggest easing of schedules in I-A this season). Last season their non-conference schedule included 2 conference champions and a 5-7 BCS conference opponent. This season, their non-conference slate is I-AA, Colorado, Utah State, San Jose State, and UTEP. Two of them might make bowl games, but it would be by the hair on their chinny-chin-chin (I think Utah State goes 6-6, CU goes 6-7 and doesn't make eligibility, and UTEP probably wins 5 games or less). They should be able to manage at least 3 wins in the non-conference, and a minimum of 3 in the MWC (at New Mexico, at UNLV, and Wyoming at home).
San Diego State
SDSU is starting essentially from scratch at WR, but returns everything else on offense. Defensively, they only return 5 starters, but the new starters have a lot of experience. They are a little thin on the defensive line, which is a major reason why I think they drop that November 12th game against CSU. That late in the season, I will give the edge to CSU's OL that averages 6'4" and 300+ pounds, at altitude, with a late afternoon kickoff (and temperatures below freezing). SDSU will ultimately become a very competitive team with Boise State and Hawaii in the MWC. I think Rocky Long is the right guy for the job. He got a lot out of his New Mexico teams with zero talent. Hoke did a get job getting this program set up, but Rocky Long will stick around and build a long-term winner in San Diego.
The Red-Headed Step-Children
6th, 7th, and 8th place are the reason most people don't look at the MWC with any respect. Wyoming, New Mexico, and UNLV are historically not really good teams. But the past few seasons (and I suspect this season especially), they will be historically bad. I would actually be shocked if UNLV didn't win a single conference game, but I just don't see who it's going to be against right now. Wyoming gets New Mexico and UNLV at home. New Mexico gets UNLV at home. None of them will compete in more than 1 or 2 games against the other 5 teams in the league. So the only wins available for them are against each other. There is not much of any home field advantage for any of these teams, but still, bad teams play poorly on the road regardless of the opponent or the crowd.
Wyoming tops out at 5 wins, no way they get more than that (and they play two I-AA teams so they would need 7 to get to a bowl game anyway). I could see New Mexico getting as many as 4, but there isn't really much hope for a team that schedules their homecoming game as a I-AA opponent. UNLV has a tough schedule and doesn't have the team to back it up. If they can find a way to beat I-AA opponent Southern Utah, they will 1-4 before making a trip to Laramie on October 15th for their first chance at a real win. Their MWC home games are all losses: CSU, Boise State, SDSU. I don't see where they win more than 2 games.
So there you have my thoughts on the new-look MWC. Just by way of information, I am aware of a lot of the preseason predictions that are out there. However, I do all of my own research and do not rely on any of the "experts" and their predictions because they only really do their homework on schools that "matter" on the national landscape. A lot of it is based on perceived quality of team without any regard for difficulty of schedule. Even the MWC Media is a bit of a joke when it comes to preseason prognostications, and all they have to do is research their 8 schools. Preseason polls are obviously worthless, in retrospect, yet we all love them.
One specific example of how ridiculous they can be: TCU is ranked #15 in preseason polls. Perhaps you could argue that TCU has "earned" their preseason ranking with their success the past 3 seasons, but still, if ANY team in a BCS conference lost what TCU did, they would be lucky to be ranked at all (like Auburn who won the NC last year but lost EVERYBODY). That is my biggest beef with this year's preseason top 25. TCU is not the 15th best team in the country right now, nor will they be by season's end. Here is where I think there now exists a bias towards non-BCS teams. "If a non-BCS school had a great year, the next year they'll be great again because they didn't play anybody last season and won't again this season." Yes, they won the Rose Bowl, but their reward was a #2 ranking at the end of last season, they shouldn't get rewarded for that again this year. TCU is not nearly as good this year and they play a more difficult schedule. 9 wins. Tops.
Friday, August 19, 2011
BYU Schedules-Football and Basketball
BYU had two big scheduling announcements Friday. First, the West Coast Conference announced their conference schedule. Second, BYU football announced that it has scheduled its 11th opponent in 2012. They will play Weber State at home on September 8th (which necessitates moving a previously scheduled home game with Hawaii either to late October or even into November, actual date is TBD).
Hoops' Big Week
With the announcement of the WCC schedule, there is one single week that will go a long way towards deciding how BYU fits into the NCAA Tournament picture. On January 25th, BYU travels to Blacksburg, VA to take on perennial bubble team Virginia Tech. They follow that up with the two biggest home games of the conference schedule back-to-back: Saint Mary's (Jan. 28th) and Gonzaga (Feb. 2nd) Now that the entire schedule has been released, it seems fair to say that BYU should go around 12-3/11-4 in the non-conference schedule. Games at Utah State and at Virginia Tech are the biggest roadblocks, along with a potential/likely showdown with one of the most boring teams in college basketball, Wisconsin, in my former hometown of Hoffman Estates, IL two days after Thanksgiving. Along with that are games at Northern Arizona and Utah that could cause a young backcourt some trouble. The biggest non-road contests will be against Oregon at Energy Solutions Arena in SLC (ESPN continuously touts the Ducks as being a year away....) and Baylor at the Marriott Center. They will likely lose at least 3, but probably not more than 5 of those games. Unless the program doesn't recover from the loss of Jimmer and Jackson as quickly as BYU fans would hope.
Conference play will be a slightly different animal. BYU will assuredly win at least 6 of their 8 home games, probably 7, and winning all 8 wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities either. As far as the road games go: BYU will certainly not be intimidated at any of the WCC venues after traveling to New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU this past season. However, games at Loyola Marymount, Portland, and Santa Clara may prove more difficult than BYU fans realize, and San Francisco seems like they could be slowly building a foundation to return to the prior glory days of the 1960's when they were one of the better teams in the Western US. Add to that the more obvious games at St. Mary's and Gonzaga and there are a half-dozen potential losses in conference, though I would anticipate something akin to 12-4/13-3 for their first go-round in the WCC. Initial feelings are that they'll be right around 25-8/26-7 after the WCC Tournament and probably just on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble around a 10 or 11 seed.
That prediction isn't based on some inside information as to how good some of these BYU young bucks are. It is just my feeling as to where Coach Rose will have his team by the season. The current trip to Greece will help guys like Martineau and Rogers step into the bigger roles they'll need to assume next season. I think it'll give them a shot to upset Utah State on the road (without the trip it would certainly have been a blowout) and some continuity in a discontinuous situation. The last time BYU made an overseas trip, they faded down the stretch of the season. This team may be deep enough to avoid that, but maybe not. It is certainly deeper than that previous team that took its game to Europe.
And Then There Was One
With the addition of Weber State, BYU now has 11 teams on the schedule for 2012, leaving just one more opening. The game will almost certainly be played in Provo, with BYU already having 6 road games on the schedule. My money is on a "name" BCS conference opponent on September 29th, or else possibly a Conference USA opponent somewhere in the first two weekends of November. The schedule already has 6 teams that are either from BCS conferences or that have played in BCS bowl games in the past 5 seasons. Before BYU fans go hoot and holler about the difficulty of the schedule, keep in mind that they may play only 3 ranked opponents (that is a MAXIMUM, not a minimum), and they still have that little issue of the 4 WAC schools that are typically in the bottom 40 FBS schools, plus an FCS school. They do play at Utah, at Boise State, at Georgia Tech, and at Notre Dame, which can atone for a lot of issues at the bottom half of the schedule, but only if those teams turn in good years (Utah and Notre Dame should, though I'm more skeptical about Boise State and Georgia Tech).
Whomever BYU adds as game #12, it's going to be a "better" schedule in 2012 than it is in 2011 from an overall quality and depth standpoint. I wouldn't anticipate the last team to necessarily be a big name, but I would guess, if it's for the September 29th game, it will be a recognizable BCS program, i.e. not a Big East or lesser ACC school. If it ends up that BYU/ESPN cannot make that BCS game happen on September 29th, BYU will end up with a Conference USA school in November. East Carolina, Houston, and Tulsa are the most likely possibilities there.
Of course, I may be dead wrong on that, but if I were in BYU's shoes, that's where I would look to go, and those are teams that have those openings. If they can't get a BCS opponent to come to Provo in September 2012 (nearly impossible to get them to Provo, and to do it in November during conference play is even more impossible), then C-USA is definitely the most "schedule-friendly" conference for a late-season non-conference game. Central Michigan of the MAC might not be a bad team to make a play for, as they don't hurt the computer profile nearly as much as some other teams might, and they still have an opening for a non-conference road game in 2012. We will probably hear more/final news in the next 6 weeks on that front, I would guess. BYU won't/shouldn't try to push the timing on that announcement to within 12 months of the game.
Hoops' Big Week
With the announcement of the WCC schedule, there is one single week that will go a long way towards deciding how BYU fits into the NCAA Tournament picture. On January 25th, BYU travels to Blacksburg, VA to take on perennial bubble team Virginia Tech. They follow that up with the two biggest home games of the conference schedule back-to-back: Saint Mary's (Jan. 28th) and Gonzaga (Feb. 2nd) Now that the entire schedule has been released, it seems fair to say that BYU should go around 12-3/11-4 in the non-conference schedule. Games at Utah State and at Virginia Tech are the biggest roadblocks, along with a potential/likely showdown with one of the most boring teams in college basketball, Wisconsin, in my former hometown of Hoffman Estates, IL two days after Thanksgiving. Along with that are games at Northern Arizona and Utah that could cause a young backcourt some trouble. The biggest non-road contests will be against Oregon at Energy Solutions Arena in SLC (ESPN continuously touts the Ducks as being a year away....) and Baylor at the Marriott Center. They will likely lose at least 3, but probably not more than 5 of those games. Unless the program doesn't recover from the loss of Jimmer and Jackson as quickly as BYU fans would hope.
Conference play will be a slightly different animal. BYU will assuredly win at least 6 of their 8 home games, probably 7, and winning all 8 wouldn't be out of the realm of possibilities either. As far as the road games go: BYU will certainly not be intimidated at any of the WCC venues after traveling to New Mexico, UNLV, and SDSU this past season. However, games at Loyola Marymount, Portland, and Santa Clara may prove more difficult than BYU fans realize, and San Francisco seems like they could be slowly building a foundation to return to the prior glory days of the 1960's when they were one of the better teams in the Western US. Add to that the more obvious games at St. Mary's and Gonzaga and there are a half-dozen potential losses in conference, though I would anticipate something akin to 12-4/13-3 for their first go-round in the WCC. Initial feelings are that they'll be right around 25-8/26-7 after the WCC Tournament and probably just on the right side of the NCAA Tournament bubble around a 10 or 11 seed.
That prediction isn't based on some inside information as to how good some of these BYU young bucks are. It is just my feeling as to where Coach Rose will have his team by the season. The current trip to Greece will help guys like Martineau and Rogers step into the bigger roles they'll need to assume next season. I think it'll give them a shot to upset Utah State on the road (without the trip it would certainly have been a blowout) and some continuity in a discontinuous situation. The last time BYU made an overseas trip, they faded down the stretch of the season. This team may be deep enough to avoid that, but maybe not. It is certainly deeper than that previous team that took its game to Europe.
And Then There Was One
With the addition of Weber State, BYU now has 11 teams on the schedule for 2012, leaving just one more opening. The game will almost certainly be played in Provo, with BYU already having 6 road games on the schedule. My money is on a "name" BCS conference opponent on September 29th, or else possibly a Conference USA opponent somewhere in the first two weekends of November. The schedule already has 6 teams that are either from BCS conferences or that have played in BCS bowl games in the past 5 seasons. Before BYU fans go hoot and holler about the difficulty of the schedule, keep in mind that they may play only 3 ranked opponents (that is a MAXIMUM, not a minimum), and they still have that little issue of the 4 WAC schools that are typically in the bottom 40 FBS schools, plus an FCS school. They do play at Utah, at Boise State, at Georgia Tech, and at Notre Dame, which can atone for a lot of issues at the bottom half of the schedule, but only if those teams turn in good years (Utah and Notre Dame should, though I'm more skeptical about Boise State and Georgia Tech).
Whomever BYU adds as game #12, it's going to be a "better" schedule in 2012 than it is in 2011 from an overall quality and depth standpoint. I wouldn't anticipate the last team to necessarily be a big name, but I would guess, if it's for the September 29th game, it will be a recognizable BCS program, i.e. not a Big East or lesser ACC school. If it ends up that BYU/ESPN cannot make that BCS game happen on September 29th, BYU will end up with a Conference USA school in November. East Carolina, Houston, and Tulsa are the most likely possibilities there.
Of course, I may be dead wrong on that, but if I were in BYU's shoes, that's where I would look to go, and those are teams that have those openings. If they can't get a BCS opponent to come to Provo in September 2012 (nearly impossible to get them to Provo, and to do it in November during conference play is even more impossible), then C-USA is definitely the most "schedule-friendly" conference for a late-season non-conference game. Central Michigan of the MAC might not be a bad team to make a play for, as they don't hurt the computer profile nearly as much as some other teams might, and they still have an opening for a non-conference road game in 2012. We will probably hear more/final news in the next 6 weeks on that front, I would guess. BYU won't/shouldn't try to push the timing on that announcement to within 12 months of the game.
Thursday, August 18, 2011
2011 Would Disappoint Me As A Cougar Fan If...
BYU went 8-4. I will be honest. BYU should destroy 5 teams. They are not playing a single top 10 team this season, and I don't believe they have any true top 20 teams on the schedule, unless Texas surprises us all. TCU is not a top 20 team. If BYU is truly a top 25, or even a top 35 team, there isn't a team on the schedule they shouldn't at least compete with, or even beat. Given that BYU should go 5-0 against the obviously inferior competition, to get to 8-4, BYU would only have to manage a losing record (3-4) against good competition.
I have higher expectations than that for this BYU team. Now I'm certainly not asking for a 12-0 season. However, if BYU is as good and talented and deep and experienced as the coaches say they are, and if the coaching staff Bronco has put together is as good as he says it is, the Cougars should be able to go at least 4-3 against the tougher part of their schedule. They play two fringe top 25 teams in TCU and Texas (both in the state of Texas). They play three teams expected to go bowling but not to win their BCS conference divisions in Ole Miss, Utah, and Oregon State (two of them on the road). They play two conference title contenders from non-BCS leagues in UCF and Hawaii (one of them on the road).
If BYU wants to play with the big boys, they can't have a losing record against those 7 teams, even if 5 of those 7 games are away from home. If they were "good enough" as a program to go Independent, they should be good enough to win the two home games, and good enough to go 2-3 in the road games. Again, that shouldn't be difficult if BYU is a top 25-ish team to beat non-top 25 teams on the road 40% of the time.
BYU has some big name games, but they are not playing anybody completely out of their league. They should be competitive in each of those 7 games, and they should be able to win more than they lose. I will be disappointed with the Cougars if they can't do that, given the expectations they themselves proclaimed this offseason. I know my "realistic expectations" post had BYU at around 9-3. But the Cougar fan in me says they should be at least that good, record-wise. I will be disappointed with anything less than that.
I have higher expectations than that for this BYU team. Now I'm certainly not asking for a 12-0 season. However, if BYU is as good and talented and deep and experienced as the coaches say they are, and if the coaching staff Bronco has put together is as good as he says it is, the Cougars should be able to go at least 4-3 against the tougher part of their schedule. They play two fringe top 25 teams in TCU and Texas (both in the state of Texas). They play three teams expected to go bowling but not to win their BCS conference divisions in Ole Miss, Utah, and Oregon State (two of them on the road). They play two conference title contenders from non-BCS leagues in UCF and Hawaii (one of them on the road).
If BYU wants to play with the big boys, they can't have a losing record against those 7 teams, even if 5 of those 7 games are away from home. If they were "good enough" as a program to go Independent, they should be good enough to win the two home games, and good enough to go 2-3 in the road games. Again, that shouldn't be difficult if BYU is a top 25-ish team to beat non-top 25 teams on the road 40% of the time.
BYU has some big name games, but they are not playing anybody completely out of their league. They should be competitive in each of those 7 games, and they should be able to win more than they lose. I will be disappointed with the Cougars if they can't do that, given the expectations they themselves proclaimed this offseason. I know my "realistic expectations" post had BYU at around 9-3. But the Cougar fan in me says they should be at least that good, record-wise. I will be disappointed with anything less than that.
Sunday, August 14, 2011
My Realistic Expectations for BYU, 2011
There are a lot of question marks on defense personnel this season, though with Bronco coaching the D, there is reason for optimism. There are some questions about just how good the offense will be. They made strides at the end of last season, but most of that was against inferior competition, and it came after the defense had improved and gave them better field position and situations to deal with. The fact is that we just don't know how good this BYU team is going to be. But you don't waste your time reading my blog for that kind of stuff, you want to know how good I think they are going to be!
I've run through position by position with what I expect to see, now it's time to look at the games themselves. When a BYU schedule comes out, I usually group the games into four types: 1) games BYU should lose, 2) games BYU absolutely should win, 3) games BYU should probably win, and 4) 50-50 games. This season, BYU COULD win any game on its schedule. In previous years, I haven't necessarily felt the same way. However, being able to potentially win any game is different than being "favored" in all of them, and even more different than winning all of them.
BYU Should Lose Two
On paper, both Texas and TCU are "better" than the Cougars. This isn't to say that BYU has no chance in these games, but only a kool-aid drinker believes that BYU will absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt go 12-0 this season. BYU should lose because these teams, position by position, appear to be better than BYU nearly across the board. Certainly there are some flaws with these teams that BYU could take advantage of (particularly the QB position for these schools), but going into the season, I expect that BYU will struggle at Texas and, by the time BYU plays TCU, I suspect the Horned Frogs will have pushed through some early season issues.
My theory on the game at Texas is this: if BYU loses to Ole Miss, they might be able to sneak up on Texas and beat them, but if they lost at Ole Miss they aren't good enough to beat Texas at Texas. If BYU beats Ole Miss then they are good enough to compete at Texas, but the Longhorns will be ready for them, and if they are ready for them, and both teams play well, Texas wins. Either way, I see it as a long shot for BYU to take this game on the road, even with new coordinators at Texas, coming off a 5-7 season, and having a bit of a QB controversy.
Though I believe TCU will be down this season compared to the previous three seasons, I still have them as the 2nd best team in the MWC (though I believe they finish third in the standings behind Boise State and Air Force) and winning 8-10 games, including the one at Cowboys Stadium against BYU. I think the preseason top 20 ranking is a bit out of whack. If any BCS conference team lost what TCU did, they wouldn't be in the top 25, see Auburn who won the National Championship last season. The non-BCS darlings have been getting a little more than deserved love in the preseason polls the past few years. I think this year will show just how good Andy Dalton was and how much he will be missed.
BYU Should Absolutely Win Five
Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State are all home games for BYU. These are inferior opponents. These are programs that have a combined two bowl appearances in the last 12 seasons. These are programs that do not win on the road, combining for just 3 wins away from home last season. BYU should win these games by four TDs or more, with the exception of the Utah State game which may be as close as 17 points (though probably closer to 24).
BYU Should Probably Win Three
UCF, at Oregon State, and at Hawaii are three games I believe BYU should win. Putting Oregon State and Hawaii in this group may be a little bit optimistic, and obviously things can change with injuries, or poor play, but I think by the time these games are played BYU should have the edge on these two teams. UCF they should have the edge regardless.
UCF is a game that BYU should win, but so were Nevada and Utah State last season. With a mobile QB, an athletic defense, and a good coach, it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that UCF could win, but it would surprise me.
The game at Oregon State will not be an easy win, by any means. I think at the start of the season, the teams are probably about even. I think the ability for BYU to improve by game 7 is higher though. Oregon State has a lot more upper-classmen in their two-deep, and I think they have a smaller potential to improve than BYU's juniors, sophomores, redshirt freshmen, and RMs. If the game were played week one, I'd call it a 50-50 game, but I look for BYU to be playing better football than Oregon State by October 15th.
At Hawaii is always a tricky affair. The crowd is raucous. The distractions are many. The Warriors are physical in the trenches and wide open on offense. The fan-base hates BYU. It makes it tough. But BYU has a few things going for it. First and foremost, their size upfront. BYU's offensive line are all over 300 pounds, Hawaii only has one 300 lbs. DL. Hawaii's OL sports three 300 lbs-ers. BYU's DL has three of their own to match. Second, the schedule lines up nicely. BYU will have played two games in the prior month and those are against lightweights Idaho and New Mexico State. They will be rested. Hawaii, on the other hand, plays BYU in its 8th consecutive week with a game, including three trips to the mainland and two physical games against Nevada and Fresno State. BYU will be fresh. Hawaii might be wasted.
50-50 Games Times Two
BYU has two toss-up games: at Ole Miss and home vs. Utah. When I first looked at the schedule, I had Oregon State and Hawaii in here as well, but after a closer look, I downgraded them to games BYU should win for the reasons stated above.
The Ole Miss game is a game on the road, in SEC country, against a big, physical group of men. It is a team that is planning on ramming the ball down BYU's throat. If BYU's front seven doesn't prove up to the task in the 90-degree, 90% humidity weather, then BYU won't win this game. But if BYU manages to be stiff upfront and hold Ole Miss to under 5 yards/carry, then it's a game that BYU could run away with. Ole Miss' D isn't much to write home about, so BYU should be able to put up some points, but can BYU's D rise to the occasion? Without knowing that with any certainty, it could go either way. I thought I saw an early betting line that had BYU favored by 3.
Last season, BYU took a young, rebuilding squad to a hostile Rice-Eccles to face an experienced, 9-2 ranked Ute team. BYU controlled the game for 3 quarters, but conservative play-calling in crucial situations cost BYU points and let Utah back in the game. In the fourth quarter, the experience showed, and Utah blocked BYU's attempted game-winning field goal on the last play of the game. Now, BYU returns 10 offensive starters and a lot of guys in the front seven on defense. BYU is the more experienced squad this time around. They get the game at home; their first home game as an Independent program. But this is the BYU-Utah rivalry. The only time BYU fans can be confident about anything in this game in recent years is when Utah has a top 15 team. BYU fans can then be confident that they will lose to the Utes. Big.
Both teams will be coming off of losses (I predict). Both teams will be itching to prove their path will be more fruitful both in the short and long term. Both teams are fighting for some recruits in the 2012 class: Jared Afalava and Adam Ah Ching. They are fighting for a few more in 2013 and, as always, plenty more beyond that too. BYU is probably in slightly better shape going into the season than Utah, but the teams and programs are so even that these games are almost always 50-50. Obviously with the aforementioned exception of when Utah is bound for a BCS Bowl, which I don't think they are this season (though I have gone on record that next year could be that kind of Utah team in a continually weak Pac 12 South, with a potentially rebuilding Oregon and Stanford in the North).
Overall
If BYU is truly a good team, they should win 10 games, taking their two 50-50 games and doing as predicted the rest of the way. If things take a while to come together, they could win 8 games, dropping both of the early 50-50 games. If things fall apart, it could drop to 6 wins, with BYU losing the 50-50 games and even two of the "BYU Should Probably Win" games. If things really come together, there's a good chance they could push for 11 wins, pulling off both 50-50 games and an upset somewhere along the way in the state of Texas. But realistically, I expect BYU to win 8-9 games and be primed for a bowl win against a C-USA opponent. I believe this season, BYU is a fringe top 25 team. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities for them to push for the top 20 by season's end, and I'd definitely be surprised if they fell into the mid-30's or lower by the end of the season. 9-10 wins after the bowl game, and between 20-25 in the rankings is a solid way for BYU to start out its Independence.
This sets them up pretty well for next season. They lose only 3 of the top 10 OL, 4 of the top 8 LBs, 2 of the top 8 DBs, 2 of the top 6 DL, a back-up QB, 2 of the top 5 RBs, and 3 of the top 9 WRs. All of the TEs return. If you do the math, that's a lot of experienced guys coming back on both sides of the ball! If they can get to 9-10 wins this season including the bowl game, I suspect that similar, or perhaps even better, results could await next season with a more manageable schedule (more of the tough games coming at home in 2012 and some really easy road wins, which are completely absent from the schedule this season). 2012 should be a good year for the state of Utah in football. That BYU-Utah game might have a lot on the line for a week 3 game. Both teams could easily start out ranked and follow that up with 2-0 starts. But enough about the future, let's celebrate the 2011 season kicking off in just over two weeks!
I've run through position by position with what I expect to see, now it's time to look at the games themselves. When a BYU schedule comes out, I usually group the games into four types: 1) games BYU should lose, 2) games BYU absolutely should win, 3) games BYU should probably win, and 4) 50-50 games. This season, BYU COULD win any game on its schedule. In previous years, I haven't necessarily felt the same way. However, being able to potentially win any game is different than being "favored" in all of them, and even more different than winning all of them.
BYU Should Lose Two
On paper, both Texas and TCU are "better" than the Cougars. This isn't to say that BYU has no chance in these games, but only a kool-aid drinker believes that BYU will absolutely beyond a shadow of a doubt go 12-0 this season. BYU should lose because these teams, position by position, appear to be better than BYU nearly across the board. Certainly there are some flaws with these teams that BYU could take advantage of (particularly the QB position for these schools), but going into the season, I expect that BYU will struggle at Texas and, by the time BYU plays TCU, I suspect the Horned Frogs will have pushed through some early season issues.
My theory on the game at Texas is this: if BYU loses to Ole Miss, they might be able to sneak up on Texas and beat them, but if they lost at Ole Miss they aren't good enough to beat Texas at Texas. If BYU beats Ole Miss then they are good enough to compete at Texas, but the Longhorns will be ready for them, and if they are ready for them, and both teams play well, Texas wins. Either way, I see it as a long shot for BYU to take this game on the road, even with new coordinators at Texas, coming off a 5-7 season, and having a bit of a QB controversy.
Though I believe TCU will be down this season compared to the previous three seasons, I still have them as the 2nd best team in the MWC (though I believe they finish third in the standings behind Boise State and Air Force) and winning 8-10 games, including the one at Cowboys Stadium against BYU. I think the preseason top 20 ranking is a bit out of whack. If any BCS conference team lost what TCU did, they wouldn't be in the top 25, see Auburn who won the National Championship last season. The non-BCS darlings have been getting a little more than deserved love in the preseason polls the past few years. I think this year will show just how good Andy Dalton was and how much he will be missed.
BYU Should Absolutely Win Five
Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, Idaho, and New Mexico State are all home games for BYU. These are inferior opponents. These are programs that have a combined two bowl appearances in the last 12 seasons. These are programs that do not win on the road, combining for just 3 wins away from home last season. BYU should win these games by four TDs or more, with the exception of the Utah State game which may be as close as 17 points (though probably closer to 24).
BYU Should Probably Win Three
UCF, at Oregon State, and at Hawaii are three games I believe BYU should win. Putting Oregon State and Hawaii in this group may be a little bit optimistic, and obviously things can change with injuries, or poor play, but I think by the time these games are played BYU should have the edge on these two teams. UCF they should have the edge regardless.
UCF is a game that BYU should win, but so were Nevada and Utah State last season. With a mobile QB, an athletic defense, and a good coach, it isn't out of the realm of possibilities that UCF could win, but it would surprise me.
The game at Oregon State will not be an easy win, by any means. I think at the start of the season, the teams are probably about even. I think the ability for BYU to improve by game 7 is higher though. Oregon State has a lot more upper-classmen in their two-deep, and I think they have a smaller potential to improve than BYU's juniors, sophomores, redshirt freshmen, and RMs. If the game were played week one, I'd call it a 50-50 game, but I look for BYU to be playing better football than Oregon State by October 15th.
At Hawaii is always a tricky affair. The crowd is raucous. The distractions are many. The Warriors are physical in the trenches and wide open on offense. The fan-base hates BYU. It makes it tough. But BYU has a few things going for it. First and foremost, their size upfront. BYU's offensive line are all over 300 pounds, Hawaii only has one 300 lbs. DL. Hawaii's OL sports three 300 lbs-ers. BYU's DL has three of their own to match. Second, the schedule lines up nicely. BYU will have played two games in the prior month and those are against lightweights Idaho and New Mexico State. They will be rested. Hawaii, on the other hand, plays BYU in its 8th consecutive week with a game, including three trips to the mainland and two physical games against Nevada and Fresno State. BYU will be fresh. Hawaii might be wasted.
50-50 Games Times Two
BYU has two toss-up games: at Ole Miss and home vs. Utah. When I first looked at the schedule, I had Oregon State and Hawaii in here as well, but after a closer look, I downgraded them to games BYU should win for the reasons stated above.
The Ole Miss game is a game on the road, in SEC country, against a big, physical group of men. It is a team that is planning on ramming the ball down BYU's throat. If BYU's front seven doesn't prove up to the task in the 90-degree, 90% humidity weather, then BYU won't win this game. But if BYU manages to be stiff upfront and hold Ole Miss to under 5 yards/carry, then it's a game that BYU could run away with. Ole Miss' D isn't much to write home about, so BYU should be able to put up some points, but can BYU's D rise to the occasion? Without knowing that with any certainty, it could go either way. I thought I saw an early betting line that had BYU favored by 3.
Last season, BYU took a young, rebuilding squad to a hostile Rice-Eccles to face an experienced, 9-2 ranked Ute team. BYU controlled the game for 3 quarters, but conservative play-calling in crucial situations cost BYU points and let Utah back in the game. In the fourth quarter, the experience showed, and Utah blocked BYU's attempted game-winning field goal on the last play of the game. Now, BYU returns 10 offensive starters and a lot of guys in the front seven on defense. BYU is the more experienced squad this time around. They get the game at home; their first home game as an Independent program. But this is the BYU-Utah rivalry. The only time BYU fans can be confident about anything in this game in recent years is when Utah has a top 15 team. BYU fans can then be confident that they will lose to the Utes. Big.
Both teams will be coming off of losses (I predict). Both teams will be itching to prove their path will be more fruitful both in the short and long term. Both teams are fighting for some recruits in the 2012 class: Jared Afalava and Adam Ah Ching. They are fighting for a few more in 2013 and, as always, plenty more beyond that too. BYU is probably in slightly better shape going into the season than Utah, but the teams and programs are so even that these games are almost always 50-50. Obviously with the aforementioned exception of when Utah is bound for a BCS Bowl, which I don't think they are this season (though I have gone on record that next year could be that kind of Utah team in a continually weak Pac 12 South, with a potentially rebuilding Oregon and Stanford in the North).
Overall
If BYU is truly a good team, they should win 10 games, taking their two 50-50 games and doing as predicted the rest of the way. If things take a while to come together, they could win 8 games, dropping both of the early 50-50 games. If things fall apart, it could drop to 6 wins, with BYU losing the 50-50 games and even two of the "BYU Should Probably Win" games. If things really come together, there's a good chance they could push for 11 wins, pulling off both 50-50 games and an upset somewhere along the way in the state of Texas. But realistically, I expect BYU to win 8-9 games and be primed for a bowl win against a C-USA opponent. I believe this season, BYU is a fringe top 25 team. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities for them to push for the top 20 by season's end, and I'd definitely be surprised if they fell into the mid-30's or lower by the end of the season. 9-10 wins after the bowl game, and between 20-25 in the rankings is a solid way for BYU to start out its Independence.
This sets them up pretty well for next season. They lose only 3 of the top 10 OL, 4 of the top 8 LBs, 2 of the top 8 DBs, 2 of the top 6 DL, a back-up QB, 2 of the top 5 RBs, and 3 of the top 9 WRs. All of the TEs return. If you do the math, that's a lot of experienced guys coming back on both sides of the ball! If they can get to 9-10 wins this season including the bowl game, I suspect that similar, or perhaps even better, results could await next season with a more manageable schedule (more of the tough games coming at home in 2012 and some really easy road wins, which are completely absent from the schedule this season). 2012 should be a good year for the state of Utah in football. That BYU-Utah game might have a lot on the line for a week 3 game. Both teams could easily start out ranked and follow that up with 2-0 starts. But enough about the future, let's celebrate the 2011 season kicking off in just over two weeks!
Saturday, August 13, 2011
What To Expect From BYU Defensively in 2011
There are obviously a lot more question marks and reasons for uncertainty on the defensive side of the ball than there are on the offensive side, but I'll try to shed a little bit of light as to what I think we might see from BYU's Defense in 2011 as the Cougars embark on Independent Schedule #1 (and I sincerely hope it's not the last).
Defensive Line
In BYU's 3-4 system, Bronco has tailored the assignment of the front three to eat up blockers and allow the linebackers to get free and make plays. He usually has one DE that is more of a pass-rusher (So'oto and Putnam filled this role last season combining for 7 sacks), but the other two on the DL are usually run-stuffers. This season, however, Bronco has a behemoth defensive line. With the loss of Putnam to academic reasons, and the beefing up of his back-up, now starter, Graham Rowley, there isn't really a speed rush on the outside. Eathyn Manumaleuna is at the other DE spot and weighs in just shy of 300. So across the starting front three, BYU goes 294, 321, and 280. The "second" line goes 331, 320, and 270 which is even bigger than the starting three, man for man. So I would expect a lot of eating up blockers by the front three. I would also expect them to collapse pockets with more ease than previous DLs. I don't anticipate a lot of sacks, or even tackles, for this group, but that doesn't mean they aren't doing a good job. Just keep in mind, the more tackles Uona Kaveinga, Spencer Hadley, and Brandon Ogletree get, and the more tackles for loss for Kyle Van Noy, Jordan Pendleton, and Jameson Frazier, the better the job these guys are doing.
Linebackers
This is the supposed strength of the defense. While there are some proven players in the mix, there is some uncertainty with the durability of these guys. Kaveinga and Van Noy haven't been hurt at all, but Pendleton's injury list is as long as a typical Florida State receiver's rap sheet. Frazier and Ogletree have missed a lot of fall camp so far too. With the loss of Jordan Atkinson, those three must stay healthy. No matter how "deep" a LB group is, any time a team loses 4 guys from the two-deep it is devastating. Anyway, enough about that. Production-wise, BYU MLBs typically record 150+ tackles between them. The OLBs tend to record 10+ tackles for loss and are good for 2-4 INTs. With this group, I would anticipate a few more tackles out of the MLBs and a few more TFLs out of the OLBs. I am interested to see these guys in pass coverage. Making plays all over the field is different than covering people before the ball is in the air. The secondary is going to need help from these guys in the passing game.
Secondary
The secondary only returns one starter, and he might be losing his job before the season starts. It's a fresh and inexperienced group. There will be some growing pains (though BYU fans may not recognize them as growing pains, it might just look like a BYU secondary). The nice part is that they have been practicing every day against a good group of WRs. The guys in the mix for all of the positions are all either pretty good sized or pretty experienced. At CBs, Corby Eason and Robbie Buckner have the experience, Preston Hadley, DeQuan Everett, Joe Sampson, and Cameron Comer have the size. Jordan Johnson has little of both, but seems to be one of the better football players in the group. At FS and SS, Travis Uale, Mike Hague, Jray Galea'i, and Carter Mees have all been around the program at least three years. SS Daniel Sorensen played OLB before his mission, so he is going to be tough at what is usually the most productive spot on BYU's defense. In years past, one player has seemed to get the bulk of the DBs INTs, but I think it'll be more spread out this season, with most players getting at least 2. Sorensen probably won't equal Andrew Rich's production from a year ago this season, but Uale and Hague at FS should be able to make up for some of that drop. I suspect this will be a typical BYU secondary, maybe slightly better than that. They will be frustrating to watch and awesome all wrapped up in every series.
In spite of a very slow start to the season, last year's D ended up being, statistically speaking, right about on par with a Bronco Mendenhall D. A Bronco D typically gives up about 22 points, about 120 rushing yards, and about 210 passing yards per game. I think this season will see those numbers improve slightly for two main reasons. 1) BYU doesn't face any offensive juggernauts all season, with the potential exceptions of Hawaii and TCU, both of whom are massively rebuilding on O this year. 2) BYU will have a half-dozen offenses on the schedule that just plain will not score. Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho, and New Mexico State are all projected to be in the bottom 40 of I-A football offenses. Idaho State is a bad I-AA offense. Texas, TCU, and Hawaii are the most likely opponents to go over 28 points, but the 6 bad teams are likely to score 14 or less, and BYU should be able to record multiple games of 7 or fewer points allowed. The BYU D probably gives up an average of 20 points/game for the season. It could be better than that, but I don't anticipate it being any worse with BYU's (relatively lighter) schedule.
Defensive Line
In BYU's 3-4 system, Bronco has tailored the assignment of the front three to eat up blockers and allow the linebackers to get free and make plays. He usually has one DE that is more of a pass-rusher (So'oto and Putnam filled this role last season combining for 7 sacks), but the other two on the DL are usually run-stuffers. This season, however, Bronco has a behemoth defensive line. With the loss of Putnam to academic reasons, and the beefing up of his back-up, now starter, Graham Rowley, there isn't really a speed rush on the outside. Eathyn Manumaleuna is at the other DE spot and weighs in just shy of 300. So across the starting front three, BYU goes 294, 321, and 280. The "second" line goes 331, 320, and 270 which is even bigger than the starting three, man for man. So I would expect a lot of eating up blockers by the front three. I would also expect them to collapse pockets with more ease than previous DLs. I don't anticipate a lot of sacks, or even tackles, for this group, but that doesn't mean they aren't doing a good job. Just keep in mind, the more tackles Uona Kaveinga, Spencer Hadley, and Brandon Ogletree get, and the more tackles for loss for Kyle Van Noy, Jordan Pendleton, and Jameson Frazier, the better the job these guys are doing.
Linebackers
This is the supposed strength of the defense. While there are some proven players in the mix, there is some uncertainty with the durability of these guys. Kaveinga and Van Noy haven't been hurt at all, but Pendleton's injury list is as long as a typical Florida State receiver's rap sheet. Frazier and Ogletree have missed a lot of fall camp so far too. With the loss of Jordan Atkinson, those three must stay healthy. No matter how "deep" a LB group is, any time a team loses 4 guys from the two-deep it is devastating. Anyway, enough about that. Production-wise, BYU MLBs typically record 150+ tackles between them. The OLBs tend to record 10+ tackles for loss and are good for 2-4 INTs. With this group, I would anticipate a few more tackles out of the MLBs and a few more TFLs out of the OLBs. I am interested to see these guys in pass coverage. Making plays all over the field is different than covering people before the ball is in the air. The secondary is going to need help from these guys in the passing game.
Secondary
The secondary only returns one starter, and he might be losing his job before the season starts. It's a fresh and inexperienced group. There will be some growing pains (though BYU fans may not recognize them as growing pains, it might just look like a BYU secondary). The nice part is that they have been practicing every day against a good group of WRs. The guys in the mix for all of the positions are all either pretty good sized or pretty experienced. At CBs, Corby Eason and Robbie Buckner have the experience, Preston Hadley, DeQuan Everett, Joe Sampson, and Cameron Comer have the size. Jordan Johnson has little of both, but seems to be one of the better football players in the group. At FS and SS, Travis Uale, Mike Hague, Jray Galea'i, and Carter Mees have all been around the program at least three years. SS Daniel Sorensen played OLB before his mission, so he is going to be tough at what is usually the most productive spot on BYU's defense. In years past, one player has seemed to get the bulk of the DBs INTs, but I think it'll be more spread out this season, with most players getting at least 2. Sorensen probably won't equal Andrew Rich's production from a year ago this season, but Uale and Hague at FS should be able to make up for some of that drop. I suspect this will be a typical BYU secondary, maybe slightly better than that. They will be frustrating to watch and awesome all wrapped up in every series.
In spite of a very slow start to the season, last year's D ended up being, statistically speaking, right about on par with a Bronco Mendenhall D. A Bronco D typically gives up about 22 points, about 120 rushing yards, and about 210 passing yards per game. I think this season will see those numbers improve slightly for two main reasons. 1) BYU doesn't face any offensive juggernauts all season, with the potential exceptions of Hawaii and TCU, both of whom are massively rebuilding on O this year. 2) BYU will have a half-dozen offenses on the schedule that just plain will not score. Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho, and New Mexico State are all projected to be in the bottom 40 of I-A football offenses. Idaho State is a bad I-AA offense. Texas, TCU, and Hawaii are the most likely opponents to go over 28 points, but the 6 bad teams are likely to score 14 or less, and BYU should be able to record multiple games of 7 or fewer points allowed. The BYU D probably gives up an average of 20 points/game for the season. It could be better than that, but I don't anticipate it being any worse with BYU's (relatively lighter) schedule.
Tuesday, August 9, 2011
What To Expect From BYU Offensively in 2011
Quarterback
I would anticipate Jake Heaps to throw for over 3,000 yards and over 20 TDs this season. He will throw more passes than he did a year ago: he didn't throw many passes early in the season and in some of the games he started, BYU committed to running the ball so much. He will complete a higher percentage: I anticipate fewer drops, and he has targets to throw to that should be more open. He will throw for more yards per completion: Doman will take more shots downfield and the WRs and TEs should be better at yards after the catch than all those inexperienced freshmen last season.
The thing with Heaps is that he can do just about everything with his arm. His deep ball is beautiful, with almost unlimited range (some of his throws at the end of the season were in the air 50-60 yards and right on target). He puts deep outs just out of reach of defenders and in perfect position for the receiver. He has confidence gunning the ball over the middle. He hits the backs out of the backfield in stride so they can take off after the catch. The one thing he needs to work on is his touch. He has a cannon, and uses it effectively. But sometimes, it's not about slinging it at top velocity. Once he masters that, he really will be able to make every throw.
I would personally like to see James Lark as the back-up QB. If Heaps goes down with an injury, Lark is the long-term solution. Riley Nelson is a gimmick QB, and he should be used as such. I would like to see Nelson in a lot of situations this season, but I don't want him taking the back-up reps until November 19th (Senior Day). I think Doman is more creative than Anae ever dreamed of being and he will find ways to involve Nelson on 3-6 plays per game.
Running Back
I think the three-headed monster, along with fullback Zed Mendenhall should rush for just about 2,000 yards this season. I think Quezada will take more of the rushes this season. Di Luigi will be the pass-catcher out of the backfield. Kariya will be the pass-protection back. Mendenhall can lead the way blocking when Kariya doesn't. Last season, the four combined for 1,960 yards and 20 TDs. That is probably about right for this season. Since BYU focused so much on the run game last season to ease Heaps into college football, it'd be tough to exceed those numbers. However, given that BYU's total offense should be better and more dynamic this season, the rushing game shouldn't experience a dropoff, even if the total carries drop.
Wide Receiver
There should be 3 WRs approaching or above 500 yards receiving this season. BYU has the ability to sling it around to a variety of different targets. Cody Hoffman was great at the end of last season. He should be even better this season. McKay Jacobson is finally healthy again, and I think Doman will use him better than Anae did: Jacobson should be more of a downfield threat, Anae kept running him on short routes across the middle. Ross Apo should be able to fill in (and then some) for Luke Ashworth. Rhen Brown has had a good start to fall camp so far and could be that fourth WR that BYU is looking for. Di Luigi and JD Falslev (who had the play of last season) will spend some time in the slot as well. Marcus Mathews is a bit of a tweener. He played in the slot last season, rarely was he a "hand-on-the-ground" TE last season.
Tight End
Devin Mahina and Austin Holt are probably the most versatile TEs BYU has and will see the most action. Neither of them were amazing in the pass game last season, but both are superb run-blockers, and both have the body to play TE for BYU. Their bodies are similar to what Andrew George, Dennis Pitta, Daniel Coats, and Doug Jolley were as sophomores. I anticipate them to get a bit more involved in the pass game this season, with more experience and off-season reps. I think that the group can net 600 yards, and I think we'll see more contributions from them in the "blue" zone as well. Richard Wilson had one really nice play last season (in the Washington game before disappearing for the year). If he can double that this season, that should help too.
Offensive Line
This BYU O-Line should be able to do just about anything. They have a ton of experience and a good amount of depth. 4 starters return. The 5th spot is a battle between 3 guys, 2 that were set to be starters in prior years but had season-ending injuries in camp and 1 incoming freshman that was a 4-star recruit, who was there to get experience in the spring. There's a lot of experience. They are big and they are strong. They can lean forward in run-blocking and they can lean backward in pass-protection. They won't be confused by blitzes or defensive formations. They WILL physically dominate at least 8 of the opposing fronts they will see, and COULD dominate as many as 10 or 11 of them.
Overall
BYU went for 366 yards and 26.2 points per game last season. Those were both lows in the Bronco Mendenhall/Robert Anae era. In Bronco's other 5 seasons, BYU averaged roughly 450 yards and 34 points per game. I am optimistic that BYU's offense should be close to the numbers of years gone by. First off, they are more experienced than last season. Secondly, they are playing 4 teams that were in the bottom 20 in scoring defense last season while playing only 2 teams that were in the top 20 (both of which replace more than half of their starters from last season).
I anticipate BYU gaining at least 425 yards/game and scoring close to 33 or 34 points/game. This is going to be much more like the BYU teams that people are used to. If they can keep turnovers down, they should be a dominant offense that puts a lot of pressure on opponents to score points and keep up.
I would anticipate Jake Heaps to throw for over 3,000 yards and over 20 TDs this season. He will throw more passes than he did a year ago: he didn't throw many passes early in the season and in some of the games he started, BYU committed to running the ball so much. He will complete a higher percentage: I anticipate fewer drops, and he has targets to throw to that should be more open. He will throw for more yards per completion: Doman will take more shots downfield and the WRs and TEs should be better at yards after the catch than all those inexperienced freshmen last season.
The thing with Heaps is that he can do just about everything with his arm. His deep ball is beautiful, with almost unlimited range (some of his throws at the end of the season were in the air 50-60 yards and right on target). He puts deep outs just out of reach of defenders and in perfect position for the receiver. He has confidence gunning the ball over the middle. He hits the backs out of the backfield in stride so they can take off after the catch. The one thing he needs to work on is his touch. He has a cannon, and uses it effectively. But sometimes, it's not about slinging it at top velocity. Once he masters that, he really will be able to make every throw.
I would personally like to see James Lark as the back-up QB. If Heaps goes down with an injury, Lark is the long-term solution. Riley Nelson is a gimmick QB, and he should be used as such. I would like to see Nelson in a lot of situations this season, but I don't want him taking the back-up reps until November 19th (Senior Day). I think Doman is more creative than Anae ever dreamed of being and he will find ways to involve Nelson on 3-6 plays per game.
Running Back
I think the three-headed monster, along with fullback Zed Mendenhall should rush for just about 2,000 yards this season. I think Quezada will take more of the rushes this season. Di Luigi will be the pass-catcher out of the backfield. Kariya will be the pass-protection back. Mendenhall can lead the way blocking when Kariya doesn't. Last season, the four combined for 1,960 yards and 20 TDs. That is probably about right for this season. Since BYU focused so much on the run game last season to ease Heaps into college football, it'd be tough to exceed those numbers. However, given that BYU's total offense should be better and more dynamic this season, the rushing game shouldn't experience a dropoff, even if the total carries drop.
Wide Receiver
There should be 3 WRs approaching or above 500 yards receiving this season. BYU has the ability to sling it around to a variety of different targets. Cody Hoffman was great at the end of last season. He should be even better this season. McKay Jacobson is finally healthy again, and I think Doman will use him better than Anae did: Jacobson should be more of a downfield threat, Anae kept running him on short routes across the middle. Ross Apo should be able to fill in (and then some) for Luke Ashworth. Rhen Brown has had a good start to fall camp so far and could be that fourth WR that BYU is looking for. Di Luigi and JD Falslev (who had the play of last season) will spend some time in the slot as well. Marcus Mathews is a bit of a tweener. He played in the slot last season, rarely was he a "hand-on-the-ground" TE last season.
Tight End
Devin Mahina and Austin Holt are probably the most versatile TEs BYU has and will see the most action. Neither of them were amazing in the pass game last season, but both are superb run-blockers, and both have the body to play TE for BYU. Their bodies are similar to what Andrew George, Dennis Pitta, Daniel Coats, and Doug Jolley were as sophomores. I anticipate them to get a bit more involved in the pass game this season, with more experience and off-season reps. I think that the group can net 600 yards, and I think we'll see more contributions from them in the "blue" zone as well. Richard Wilson had one really nice play last season (in the Washington game before disappearing for the year). If he can double that this season, that should help too.
Offensive Line
This BYU O-Line should be able to do just about anything. They have a ton of experience and a good amount of depth. 4 starters return. The 5th spot is a battle between 3 guys, 2 that were set to be starters in prior years but had season-ending injuries in camp and 1 incoming freshman that was a 4-star recruit, who was there to get experience in the spring. There's a lot of experience. They are big and they are strong. They can lean forward in run-blocking and they can lean backward in pass-protection. They won't be confused by blitzes or defensive formations. They WILL physically dominate at least 8 of the opposing fronts they will see, and COULD dominate as many as 10 or 11 of them.
Overall
BYU went for 366 yards and 26.2 points per game last season. Those were both lows in the Bronco Mendenhall/Robert Anae era. In Bronco's other 5 seasons, BYU averaged roughly 450 yards and 34 points per game. I am optimistic that BYU's offense should be close to the numbers of years gone by. First off, they are more experienced than last season. Secondly, they are playing 4 teams that were in the bottom 20 in scoring defense last season while playing only 2 teams that were in the top 20 (both of which replace more than half of their starters from last season).
I anticipate BYU gaining at least 425 yards/game and scoring close to 33 or 34 points/game. This is going to be much more like the BYU teams that people are used to. If they can keep turnovers down, they should be a dominant offense that puts a lot of pressure on opponents to score points and keep up.
Monday, August 8, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: Experience
So, I've gone position by position to give you my thoughts on BYU's opponents. I told you a little about what to expect from each position for each opponent. Besides Special Teams (which I will not attempt to rank because it is so variable, and punt and kick returners are often the last thing listed, injuries are more prevalent to return-men, and punters/kickers don't always improve from year-to-year as much as players at other positions), experience is another very important factor. BYU fans should be well aware of that after last season. It should be noted that not all experience is created equal. Having an experienced QB, C, LT, MLB, or FS can be more important than experience at other positions, simply because those guys make most of the pre-snap adjustments.
Heading into this season, BYU features a lot of sophomores and juniors in the two-deep. Yes, BYU improved towards the end of last season, yes, they return a lot of starters, and, yes, expectations should be higher this season than last. However, BYU is still a young team, and it would be well to remember that when watching the Cougars this season. They aren't completely inexperienced, but they are pretty young, 60 guys from last year's "dress" squad return, but a lot of them were frosh and sophs last year. Alright, without further ado, here is how BYU's opponents look in the experience department.
1) New Mexico State
2) San Jose State
3) Utah State
4) Oregon State
5) Utah
6) Ole Miss
7) Texas
8) UCF
9) Hawaii
10) Idaho
11) TCU
Good news for BYU is that its toughest opponents are among some of the least experienced teams they will face. The better news is that BYU plays most of them early in the season.
New Mexico State returns 16 starters, including their entire Offensive Line and their QB Andrew Manley. Their top 4 tacklers return on defense as well and 5 of the front 7 return.
San Jose State returns 18 starters, but will have to start fresh at QB and replace their C and LT (the most important positions on OL). They return their entire defense, but it was a defense that gave up 464 yards/game.
Utah State returns 14 starters, including all of the skill position players and 4 of 5 OL. Brand new QB this season though, which is big for them as they try to get over the hump. 4 of the front 7 on D return, but all 4 are seniors and multi-year starters.
Oregon State brings back 12 starters, including QB Ryan Katz and 4 of 5 OL. Only 2 of the front 7 return, but all of the projected starters are in (at least) their 3rd year in the program.
Utah returns 12 starters, including QB Jordan Wynn, C Tevita Stevens, RT Tony Bergstrom, and LT John Cullen. 2 starting WRs and TE also return. They have a very experienced front 7 on D, with 5 returning starters and the entire two-deep is loaded with experience. The secondary is entirely fresh, with only one player with significant, non-special teams game experience.
Ole Miss returns 13 starters, including pretty much the entire offense besides QB and a WR. However, the QB is very important to an offense. The OL returns the top 10 from last season. WRs return a bit of experience, but none of them have caught many passes in their careers, so their experience is in run-blocking and decoying. The defense is very light on experience, almost across the board. They have 4 senior starters returning: two on the front-end, two on the back-end, and zero in the middle. They have freshmen and JC transfers listed all over the place in their two-deep defensively.
Texas returns an unknown number of starters! Theoretically it is 11, however, Garrett Gilbert is not necessarily going to be the Longhorn QB this season just because he was last season. WR Malcolm Williams has left the team this week, leaving them with very little depth at WR. They have three new OL. Only 4 of the front 7 on D are returning starters, with a lot of talented but inexperienced players in the two-deep. SS Christian Scott and FS Blake Gideon are supposed to anchor the secondary, but Scott was arrested today on assault charges and his status for the season is in question (glad I cheer for a team where it wouldn't be in question, he would be gone!). They also have a very experienced K/P. Ask the 2008 Utes how important that can be! Sakoda won 3 games for the Utes and gave them the opportunity to make and win a BCS game...
UCF's QB has had legal troubles of his own this offseason. UCF returns 10 starters, including the aforementioned legally-challenged QB Jeff Godfrey. They return a couple of OL and have mostly juniors and seniors at the offensive skill positions. Defensively, they return 2 of their top 3 tacklers. The other 9 would-be starters are inexperienced, with only two returning starters among that group. This was a team that was built to win last season. This season should be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Knights.
Hawaii returns 5,000 yard passer Bryant Moniz among 9 returning starters. They have an almost entirely "new" OL, but the two-deep is mostly juniors and seniors. They have a "new" WR group, but most of them are juniors and seniors as well with plenty of experience with Hawaii's 5 WR sets. The defense returns 4 stellar players, and fill in with mostly juniors and seniors everywhere else. They don't have tons of game reps, but the guys have played some, and have been in the program long enough to know what's up.
Idaho returns 12 starters but will have a new QB. Their biggest problem offensively is that at the positions where they don't have an experienced starter coming back, they have a completely inexperienced two-deep. Their defense is very experienced, and, if it weren't for a 5,000 yard passer coming back, I'd have them ahead of Hawaii. With a new QB, RB, and two very inexperienced OL, they will have a tough time offensively.
TCU's biggest weakness, by far, is their experience. They have 8 returning starters. RBs and WRs are experienced. The OL and QB are not at all. The front 6 on D is fairly experienced, with the two LBs being very experienced (and studs besides). The secondary is fast, as always, but the two-deep they are putting out there has very little game experience.
BYU, comparatively, in spite of some of the youth I mentioned earlier, could very well be the most experienced group of the bunch, though they probably technically fall at #3, just ahead of Utah State. Offensively, they return all of their RBs, their QBs, and 8 of their top 9 WRs/TEs. They return 4 starters on the OL, with the 5th spot open between a myriad of players, most of whom have been in the program 3 years. Defensively, their front 7 two-deep returns 8 players with significant starting experience. The two guys with the least experience are transfers from USC, which I take to mean they are good players (or at least they were highly recruited at one point in time to end up there). The secondary is a bit of a different story. Travis Uale is the lone returning starter, though Corby Eason played a lot last season, and Robbie Buckner saw a lot of action in 2009. They throw in a recently returned missionary and a couple of JC transfers. Who ultimately plays DB for BYU this year is somewhat up in the air, but how many combined starts they have isn't. It's pretty close to 0!
BYU has 13 seniors listed in the two-deep (44 players), so they aren't terribly "experienced" per se. With missions and so many BYU players grayshirting and redshirting, they have a lot of guys who have been around a while.
It is certainly a benefit for BYU to get Ole Miss, Texas, and Utah early in the season. With so much uncertainty and inexperience in their rotations, it will be a huge opportunity for BYU to catch those teams before they hit their stride. Theoretically, a win over Ole Miss, Texas, or Utah in September will look a lot better as those teams start to roll in October and November. I do expect all of those teams to have good second halves of the season. Now if only that TCU game weren't at the end of October. Next up, Mo's outlook for the season...
Heading into this season, BYU features a lot of sophomores and juniors in the two-deep. Yes, BYU improved towards the end of last season, yes, they return a lot of starters, and, yes, expectations should be higher this season than last. However, BYU is still a young team, and it would be well to remember that when watching the Cougars this season. They aren't completely inexperienced, but they are pretty young, 60 guys from last year's "dress" squad return, but a lot of them were frosh and sophs last year. Alright, without further ado, here is how BYU's opponents look in the experience department.
1) New Mexico State
2) San Jose State
3) Utah State
4) Oregon State
5) Utah
6) Ole Miss
7) Texas
8) UCF
9) Hawaii
10) Idaho
11) TCU
Good news for BYU is that its toughest opponents are among some of the least experienced teams they will face. The better news is that BYU plays most of them early in the season.
New Mexico State returns 16 starters, including their entire Offensive Line and their QB Andrew Manley. Their top 4 tacklers return on defense as well and 5 of the front 7 return.
San Jose State returns 18 starters, but will have to start fresh at QB and replace their C and LT (the most important positions on OL). They return their entire defense, but it was a defense that gave up 464 yards/game.
Utah State returns 14 starters, including all of the skill position players and 4 of 5 OL. Brand new QB this season though, which is big for them as they try to get over the hump. 4 of the front 7 on D return, but all 4 are seniors and multi-year starters.
Oregon State brings back 12 starters, including QB Ryan Katz and 4 of 5 OL. Only 2 of the front 7 return, but all of the projected starters are in (at least) their 3rd year in the program.
Utah returns 12 starters, including QB Jordan Wynn, C Tevita Stevens, RT Tony Bergstrom, and LT John Cullen. 2 starting WRs and TE also return. They have a very experienced front 7 on D, with 5 returning starters and the entire two-deep is loaded with experience. The secondary is entirely fresh, with only one player with significant, non-special teams game experience.
Ole Miss returns 13 starters, including pretty much the entire offense besides QB and a WR. However, the QB is very important to an offense. The OL returns the top 10 from last season. WRs return a bit of experience, but none of them have caught many passes in their careers, so their experience is in run-blocking and decoying. The defense is very light on experience, almost across the board. They have 4 senior starters returning: two on the front-end, two on the back-end, and zero in the middle. They have freshmen and JC transfers listed all over the place in their two-deep defensively.
Texas returns an unknown number of starters! Theoretically it is 11, however, Garrett Gilbert is not necessarily going to be the Longhorn QB this season just because he was last season. WR Malcolm Williams has left the team this week, leaving them with very little depth at WR. They have three new OL. Only 4 of the front 7 on D are returning starters, with a lot of talented but inexperienced players in the two-deep. SS Christian Scott and FS Blake Gideon are supposed to anchor the secondary, but Scott was arrested today on assault charges and his status for the season is in question (glad I cheer for a team where it wouldn't be in question, he would be gone!). They also have a very experienced K/P. Ask the 2008 Utes how important that can be! Sakoda won 3 games for the Utes and gave them the opportunity to make and win a BCS game...
UCF's QB has had legal troubles of his own this offseason. UCF returns 10 starters, including the aforementioned legally-challenged QB Jeff Godfrey. They return a couple of OL and have mostly juniors and seniors at the offensive skill positions. Defensively, they return 2 of their top 3 tacklers. The other 9 would-be starters are inexperienced, with only two returning starters among that group. This was a team that was built to win last season. This season should be a bit of a rebuilding year for the Knights.
Hawaii returns 5,000 yard passer Bryant Moniz among 9 returning starters. They have an almost entirely "new" OL, but the two-deep is mostly juniors and seniors. They have a "new" WR group, but most of them are juniors and seniors as well with plenty of experience with Hawaii's 5 WR sets. The defense returns 4 stellar players, and fill in with mostly juniors and seniors everywhere else. They don't have tons of game reps, but the guys have played some, and have been in the program long enough to know what's up.
Idaho returns 12 starters but will have a new QB. Their biggest problem offensively is that at the positions where they don't have an experienced starter coming back, they have a completely inexperienced two-deep. Their defense is very experienced, and, if it weren't for a 5,000 yard passer coming back, I'd have them ahead of Hawaii. With a new QB, RB, and two very inexperienced OL, they will have a tough time offensively.
TCU's biggest weakness, by far, is their experience. They have 8 returning starters. RBs and WRs are experienced. The OL and QB are not at all. The front 6 on D is fairly experienced, with the two LBs being very experienced (and studs besides). The secondary is fast, as always, but the two-deep they are putting out there has very little game experience.
BYU, comparatively, in spite of some of the youth I mentioned earlier, could very well be the most experienced group of the bunch, though they probably technically fall at #3, just ahead of Utah State. Offensively, they return all of their RBs, their QBs, and 8 of their top 9 WRs/TEs. They return 4 starters on the OL, with the 5th spot open between a myriad of players, most of whom have been in the program 3 years. Defensively, their front 7 two-deep returns 8 players with significant starting experience. The two guys with the least experience are transfers from USC, which I take to mean they are good players (or at least they were highly recruited at one point in time to end up there). The secondary is a bit of a different story. Travis Uale is the lone returning starter, though Corby Eason played a lot last season, and Robbie Buckner saw a lot of action in 2009. They throw in a recently returned missionary and a couple of JC transfers. Who ultimately plays DB for BYU this year is somewhat up in the air, but how many combined starts they have isn't. It's pretty close to 0!
BYU has 13 seniors listed in the two-deep (44 players), so they aren't terribly "experienced" per se. With missions and so many BYU players grayshirting and redshirting, they have a lot of guys who have been around a while.
It is certainly a benefit for BYU to get Ole Miss, Texas, and Utah early in the season. With so much uncertainty and inexperience in their rotations, it will be a huge opportunity for BYU to catch those teams before they hit their stride. Theoretically, a win over Ole Miss, Texas, or Utah in September will look a lot better as those teams start to roll in October and November. I do expect all of those teams to have good second halves of the season. Now if only that TCU game weren't at the end of October. Next up, Mo's outlook for the season...
Saturday, August 6, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: Coaching
BYU had a lot of changes to the staff this past off-season, but BYU fans have got to like what Bronco has done with the program. It is a clean program. The expectations for the players, both on and off the field, have been raised. For the most part, what he has done has worked, with the exception of the dual-QB system last season (which I think was more of a philosophical difference between Bronco, Doman, and Anae more than anything). Also, they underperformed in Max Hall's senior season, I think. The team looked unprepared offensively in several games, and the defense never showed up a couple of times as well. That should have been a team that competed with TCU for a BCS game.
All in all, the program is in much better shape than it has been at any time since the mid-90's (the BYU dynasty pretty much ended after the 1996 season). Crowton had a great season in year one, but the program was not in good shape. Under Bronco, BYU consistently recruits in the top 50 (and they were in the top 30-40 every year but two under Bronco), the players are not making noise off the field, and the depth gets better from year to year (with the exception of the rebuilding year of 2010). He has done well. But BYU is going to see some other pretty good coaching staffs this season.
1) TCU
2) Texas
3) Utah
4) Oregon State
5) Ole Miss
6) UCF
7) Hawaii
8) Idaho
9) Utah State
10) New Mexico State
11) San Jose State
Gary Patterson has built a great program from an average starting place. His teams have been pretty consistently ranked over the past 6 years. Last season was the highest they have been, finishing at #2 with a Rose Bowl win. While I believe that is the highest ranking they will ever achieve (with a senior-dominated squad playing a very easy schedule), he has done a great job keeping assistants and getting things done.
Texas has had a bit of an overhaul in their staff, and is coming off a down year, but Mack Brown is one of the best head coaches in the game. Texas has been one of the dominant program of the past decade. They had a down year in 2010, and probably will still be rebuilding a bit in 2011, but Mack Brown consistently puts one of the best products in the country out on the field.
Tough to argue with a BCS win as a non-BCS school. Kyle Whittingham has the Utah program in the best position it has EVER been in. Urban Meyer laid the ground work. It took K-Whit a bit of time to get it figured out, but he has finally been able to build on that foundation. 4 years ago, Utah would have had no chance to enter the Pac 10 and be competitive week in and week out. But now they can and will. They have a good chance to play in the Pac 12 Title game each of their first two seasons. With USC getting off its sanctions, and Utah entering the post-Wynn era, I can't really project beyond that.
Oregon State's Mike Riley has built something pretty good at Oregon State. Twice. Oregon State is traditionally not a good program, but in his two stints as HC, Oregon State has competed for Pac 10 Titles on many occasions. But he just can't get over the hump. My opinion is that he schedules too tough in the non-conference, personally, but I like his guts to go out and play people every year.
Houston Nutt wins every where he goes. From Boise State to Arkansas to Ole Miss, his teams have competed both during his time there, and following his departure. The sign of a good coach is how good of a program he leaves behind, and Nutt's Boise and Arkansas teams were left in great shape when he left. Just look at the BCS games Boise State and Arkansas made with his players.
George O'Leary's Central Florida team is coming off the Knights best season ever. O'Leary has taken UCF to their first 4 bowl games ever, getting their first ever bowl win last season against the Georgia Bulldogs of the SEC. After going 0-11 in his first season, they have had 2 seasons of 10 wins or more, two season of 8 wins, and two 4-8 rebuilding years.
Greg McMackin took a little while to get going at Hawaii, but last season he guided them to a 10-4 record. With this team (and a 14-game schedule including a bowl game), 10 wins isn't out of the question again. There isn't a team on the schedule that they couldn't beat, which is the sign of a good non-BCS program, especially for a team with two BCS teams on the schedule.
Idaho's Robb Akey is entering his 5th season as the head man at Idaho. They have only made one bowl game. He's really only here by default. He wins one out of every three games he coaches.
Utah State's Gary Andersen is entering his 3rd season in Logan. They have gone 4-8 both seasons. This is probably the best team he's had so far and he has the easiest schedule he's had so far as well. But 6 or 7 wins and a bowl game in that environment doesn't make you a great coach. Similar to Robb Akey, he wins one out of three games he coaches, but without a bowl game to show for it, which is why I rate him below Idaho's Akey.
NMSU has 5 wins in two seasons under DeWayne Walker. Mike MacIntyre only won one game last season at SJSU. Neither are projected to win much more this season either...
As far as where to place Bronco's BYU coaching staff, I'm a bit unsure. They are either right ahead of Utah or right behind. I could have a great argument for either. Kyle won a conference title and BCS game. Bronco won two conference titles and never finished below third in the conference. The Utes have had better defenses most seasons. The Cougars have had better offenses most seasons. The Utes won 10 or more games 3 times in 6 years. BYU did it 4 times over the same span against the same level of competition.
There are two main differences. One, Bronco just revamped his coaching staff, so comparing the staffs is difficult because half of BYU's staff is new to their assignments this season. Two, Bronco took over a fledgling program coming off of three straight losing seasons and made a contender out of them in his second season. Kyle took over a team that finished ranked the two previous seasons with two conference titles and was fresh off a BCS bowl win. It took him four years to win the conference, and he only did it the one time. Kyle has no real limitations in recruiting and has landed some great prospects over the years. Bronco can only get the guys that want BYU, and it has rarely been the blue-chippers. Bronco does the same with less, Kyle does the same with more. Kyle is 57-20 and Bronco is 56-21. They are 3-3 head-to-head.
I guess the way to say it is: the Utes love that they have Kyle. The Cougars are glad that they didn't get Kyle. The two programs are essentially even right now. I expect Utah to win 6-8 games this season against a more difficult schedule. I expect BYU to win 8-9 games against an easier schedule. The two programs are about as even as can be. That's what makes the rivalry so great these days. That's also what makes them tied for third on my list of coaching staffs.
All in all, the program is in much better shape than it has been at any time since the mid-90's (the BYU dynasty pretty much ended after the 1996 season). Crowton had a great season in year one, but the program was not in good shape. Under Bronco, BYU consistently recruits in the top 50 (and they were in the top 30-40 every year but two under Bronco), the players are not making noise off the field, and the depth gets better from year to year (with the exception of the rebuilding year of 2010). He has done well. But BYU is going to see some other pretty good coaching staffs this season.
1) TCU
2) Texas
3) Utah
4) Oregon State
5) Ole Miss
6) UCF
7) Hawaii
8) Idaho
9) Utah State
10) New Mexico State
11) San Jose State
Gary Patterson has built a great program from an average starting place. His teams have been pretty consistently ranked over the past 6 years. Last season was the highest they have been, finishing at #2 with a Rose Bowl win. While I believe that is the highest ranking they will ever achieve (with a senior-dominated squad playing a very easy schedule), he has done a great job keeping assistants and getting things done.
Texas has had a bit of an overhaul in their staff, and is coming off a down year, but Mack Brown is one of the best head coaches in the game. Texas has been one of the dominant program of the past decade. They had a down year in 2010, and probably will still be rebuilding a bit in 2011, but Mack Brown consistently puts one of the best products in the country out on the field.
Tough to argue with a BCS win as a non-BCS school. Kyle Whittingham has the Utah program in the best position it has EVER been in. Urban Meyer laid the ground work. It took K-Whit a bit of time to get it figured out, but he has finally been able to build on that foundation. 4 years ago, Utah would have had no chance to enter the Pac 10 and be competitive week in and week out. But now they can and will. They have a good chance to play in the Pac 12 Title game each of their first two seasons. With USC getting off its sanctions, and Utah entering the post-Wynn era, I can't really project beyond that.
Oregon State's Mike Riley has built something pretty good at Oregon State. Twice. Oregon State is traditionally not a good program, but in his two stints as HC, Oregon State has competed for Pac 10 Titles on many occasions. But he just can't get over the hump. My opinion is that he schedules too tough in the non-conference, personally, but I like his guts to go out and play people every year.
Houston Nutt wins every where he goes. From Boise State to Arkansas to Ole Miss, his teams have competed both during his time there, and following his departure. The sign of a good coach is how good of a program he leaves behind, and Nutt's Boise and Arkansas teams were left in great shape when he left. Just look at the BCS games Boise State and Arkansas made with his players.
George O'Leary's Central Florida team is coming off the Knights best season ever. O'Leary has taken UCF to their first 4 bowl games ever, getting their first ever bowl win last season against the Georgia Bulldogs of the SEC. After going 0-11 in his first season, they have had 2 seasons of 10 wins or more, two season of 8 wins, and two 4-8 rebuilding years.
Greg McMackin took a little while to get going at Hawaii, but last season he guided them to a 10-4 record. With this team (and a 14-game schedule including a bowl game), 10 wins isn't out of the question again. There isn't a team on the schedule that they couldn't beat, which is the sign of a good non-BCS program, especially for a team with two BCS teams on the schedule.
Idaho's Robb Akey is entering his 5th season as the head man at Idaho. They have only made one bowl game. He's really only here by default. He wins one out of every three games he coaches.
Utah State's Gary Andersen is entering his 3rd season in Logan. They have gone 4-8 both seasons. This is probably the best team he's had so far and he has the easiest schedule he's had so far as well. But 6 or 7 wins and a bowl game in that environment doesn't make you a great coach. Similar to Robb Akey, he wins one out of three games he coaches, but without a bowl game to show for it, which is why I rate him below Idaho's Akey.
NMSU has 5 wins in two seasons under DeWayne Walker. Mike MacIntyre only won one game last season at SJSU. Neither are projected to win much more this season either...
As far as where to place Bronco's BYU coaching staff, I'm a bit unsure. They are either right ahead of Utah or right behind. I could have a great argument for either. Kyle won a conference title and BCS game. Bronco won two conference titles and never finished below third in the conference. The Utes have had better defenses most seasons. The Cougars have had better offenses most seasons. The Utes won 10 or more games 3 times in 6 years. BYU did it 4 times over the same span against the same level of competition.
There are two main differences. One, Bronco just revamped his coaching staff, so comparing the staffs is difficult because half of BYU's staff is new to their assignments this season. Two, Bronco took over a fledgling program coming off of three straight losing seasons and made a contender out of them in his second season. Kyle took over a team that finished ranked the two previous seasons with two conference titles and was fresh off a BCS bowl win. It took him four years to win the conference, and he only did it the one time. Kyle has no real limitations in recruiting and has landed some great prospects over the years. Bronco can only get the guys that want BYU, and it has rarely been the blue-chippers. Bronco does the same with less, Kyle does the same with more. Kyle is 57-20 and Bronco is 56-21. They are 3-3 head-to-head.
I guess the way to say it is: the Utes love that they have Kyle. The Cougars are glad that they didn't get Kyle. The two programs are essentially even right now. I expect Utah to win 6-8 games this season against a more difficult schedule. I expect BYU to win 8-9 games against an easier schedule. The two programs are about as even as can be. That's what makes the rivalry so great these days. That's also what makes them tied for third on my list of coaching staffs.
Friday, August 5, 2011
BYU's 2011 Football Opponents: DB
Over the years, BYU has put together some interesting defensive backfields. A few years back they had four "less than athletic" guys that walked on to the team as the starting back four. They always have at least one guy that is under 5'10" and under 170 pounds. They are pretty much always the biggest weakness or question mark for BYU (besides maybe the special teams which has been equally adventurous in the not-so-distant past). I do not believe that this season will be much different for DBs. I read an article a little while back talking about the wealth and depth of options and talent at DB for BYU this season. Then I remembered, that's pretty much the same article BYU fans have read for the past few years: BYU has more options at DB than ever before. Yet every year, there is a tight battle and someone wins the job, and they are OK, but the back-up rarely ever plays. And the starter is rarely ever good. And when the back-up finally gets his chance, he proves why he lost the job to the not-so-good starter. Before I start buying into a solid group of BYU DBs, I want to see 6 guys play back there (and play well) that return the following season.
BYU is starting a lot of new faces, one of them potentially being a recently returned missionary who "looks really good" (but so did Pendleton and Jacobson, and they have been injured more often than not after their missions). RMs may be mature in spirit, but their bodies usually take a while longer to "grow up." Alright, enough with my diatribe, now for my rankings of the DBs that BYU will see, which is actually the best position group in terms of quality that BYU will see this season.
1) Texas
2) TCU
3) Oregon State
4) Ole Miss
5) San Jose State
6) Utah
7) UCF
8) New Mexico State
9) Hawaii
10) Idaho
11) Utah State
Texas may have one of the better groups of DBs in the country. They have a couple of young, though not inexperienced CBs, one a little thicker, one a little faster. Blake Gideon is entering his fourth year as a starter at Free Safety. Christian Scott started most of last season at Strong Safety, he is athletic, though a little undersized for a Texas SS (Texas usually has great SS's).
TCU only returns two of five starters in the secondary (remember they employ a 4-2-5), but they start three seniors. The other two are very inexperienced. They will be up to speed by game time, but chemistry and assignment-sound football is vital in Gary Patterson's D. It's not all about team speed. These guys have the speed, but how will they learn and how will they mesh, especially where I anticipate a couple of pre-BYU game losses for them.
Oregon State returns two starters, both seniors. The other two are juniors that have seen a lot of playing time over their first two years, even if most of it was on special teams. Combined the four projected starters had nearly 200 tackles last season, 4 INTs, and 11 pass breakups.
Ole Miss also returns two starters, both seniors. The other two starters will likely be JC Transfers that were there for spring ball. It is a pretty small secondary, and perhaps I am a bit too optimistic about them, but it is going to be a group of guys good enough to play in the SEC, and that's good enough for fourth on my list, regardless of experience, or lack of it.
San Jose State actually has a not-bad secondary, which is the only position I will rank them this high on! They return 4 senior starters, all of whom started at least a few games as sophomores, and a lot more as juniors. Free Safety Alex Germany is the weakest link in the group, but this should be a very solid group. It is certainly the most experienced group BYU will see all season.
Utah always seems to put together a good secondary. If this unit ends up being a top-flight unit though, then major kudos to the coaching staff, because this group is not the most physically gifted, it isn't full of the most highly recruited guys, and it isn't the most experienced group. They have 1 senior and 1 total start combined for the entire group. With that said, while they aren't exactly big, they aren't small either. Also, two of the projected starters have been in the program for 3 years. This group cries potential. It is a decently athletic bunch. Kyle will groom them into a tough bunch. It'll probably be a good unit by the end of the season. BYU gets to see them in week three, however, and potential rarely ever meshes perfectly by week three.
UCF is a fairly experienced bunch. Two of the three juniors that are projected to start made First Team C-USA last season. If it weren't for the strong safety position which looks very weak, I'd probably put them ahead of the U Crew.
Of the bottom four, Idaho is probably the most experienced but the least talented. Again, I am probably making unfair assessments of them b/c I only saw them play against Boise State last season. New Mexico State has the biggest group, with nearly as much experience as Idaho. Hawaii doesn't have much experience or size, but Richard Torres is a monster at SS. Utah State doesn't have much experience, much size, and, frankly, I don't think they are very good players. I know recruiting sites are overrated and all of that. Blah blah blah. However, none of the projected top 8 for Utah State had two stars next to their names on any recruiting site. Good coaching can make great players All-Americans, good players great, average players good, and bad players average. If Gary Anderson is a great coach, Utah State will have an average secondary.
I would put BYU's DBs between UCF and New Mexico State. Maybe by the end of the season, I will be proved wrong about this secondary. Maybe it really is loaded with talent and depth and ability. But going into the season, it's just words and a few analysts' opinions that it is so. If they have a great year, it's as likely to be because they aren't facing any good QBs, no premier WRs, and BYU's front 7 dominates as it is to be because they are good. I will always doubt the BYU secondary, it is just a matter of history. Don't tell me it's different until I can see that it is on the field. This group hasn't made a game-breaking/winning play since the 1996 Cotton Bowl. That's 15 years of never making the play. That's 180 games of everyone else saving their butt. We all have a right to be pessimistic about BYU's secondary.
BYU is starting a lot of new faces, one of them potentially being a recently returned missionary who "looks really good" (but so did Pendleton and Jacobson, and they have been injured more often than not after their missions). RMs may be mature in spirit, but their bodies usually take a while longer to "grow up." Alright, enough with my diatribe, now for my rankings of the DBs that BYU will see, which is actually the best position group in terms of quality that BYU will see this season.
1) Texas
2) TCU
3) Oregon State
4) Ole Miss
5) San Jose State
6) Utah
7) UCF
8) New Mexico State
9) Hawaii
10) Idaho
11) Utah State
Texas may have one of the better groups of DBs in the country. They have a couple of young, though not inexperienced CBs, one a little thicker, one a little faster. Blake Gideon is entering his fourth year as a starter at Free Safety. Christian Scott started most of last season at Strong Safety, he is athletic, though a little undersized for a Texas SS (Texas usually has great SS's).
TCU only returns two of five starters in the secondary (remember they employ a 4-2-5), but they start three seniors. The other two are very inexperienced. They will be up to speed by game time, but chemistry and assignment-sound football is vital in Gary Patterson's D. It's not all about team speed. These guys have the speed, but how will they learn and how will they mesh, especially where I anticipate a couple of pre-BYU game losses for them.
Oregon State returns two starters, both seniors. The other two are juniors that have seen a lot of playing time over their first two years, even if most of it was on special teams. Combined the four projected starters had nearly 200 tackles last season, 4 INTs, and 11 pass breakups.
Ole Miss also returns two starters, both seniors. The other two starters will likely be JC Transfers that were there for spring ball. It is a pretty small secondary, and perhaps I am a bit too optimistic about them, but it is going to be a group of guys good enough to play in the SEC, and that's good enough for fourth on my list, regardless of experience, or lack of it.
San Jose State actually has a not-bad secondary, which is the only position I will rank them this high on! They return 4 senior starters, all of whom started at least a few games as sophomores, and a lot more as juniors. Free Safety Alex Germany is the weakest link in the group, but this should be a very solid group. It is certainly the most experienced group BYU will see all season.
Utah always seems to put together a good secondary. If this unit ends up being a top-flight unit though, then major kudos to the coaching staff, because this group is not the most physically gifted, it isn't full of the most highly recruited guys, and it isn't the most experienced group. They have 1 senior and 1 total start combined for the entire group. With that said, while they aren't exactly big, they aren't small either. Also, two of the projected starters have been in the program for 3 years. This group cries potential. It is a decently athletic bunch. Kyle will groom them into a tough bunch. It'll probably be a good unit by the end of the season. BYU gets to see them in week three, however, and potential rarely ever meshes perfectly by week three.
UCF is a fairly experienced bunch. Two of the three juniors that are projected to start made First Team C-USA last season. If it weren't for the strong safety position which looks very weak, I'd probably put them ahead of the U Crew.
Of the bottom four, Idaho is probably the most experienced but the least talented. Again, I am probably making unfair assessments of them b/c I only saw them play against Boise State last season. New Mexico State has the biggest group, with nearly as much experience as Idaho. Hawaii doesn't have much experience or size, but Richard Torres is a monster at SS. Utah State doesn't have much experience, much size, and, frankly, I don't think they are very good players. I know recruiting sites are overrated and all of that. Blah blah blah. However, none of the projected top 8 for Utah State had two stars next to their names on any recruiting site. Good coaching can make great players All-Americans, good players great, average players good, and bad players average. If Gary Anderson is a great coach, Utah State will have an average secondary.
I would put BYU's DBs between UCF and New Mexico State. Maybe by the end of the season, I will be proved wrong about this secondary. Maybe it really is loaded with talent and depth and ability. But going into the season, it's just words and a few analysts' opinions that it is so. If they have a great year, it's as likely to be because they aren't facing any good QBs, no premier WRs, and BYU's front 7 dominates as it is to be because they are good. I will always doubt the BYU secondary, it is just a matter of history. Don't tell me it's different until I can see that it is on the field. This group hasn't made a game-breaking/winning play since the 1996 Cotton Bowl. That's 15 years of never making the play. That's 180 games of everyone else saving their butt. We all have a right to be pessimistic about BYU's secondary.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)