Well, the bubble actually had a lot of movement this week without any change. I thought certain teams would be eliminated by certain losses, until every other team seemed to lose or the team that lost picked up a big win later in the week. My previous "locks" haven't changed, with two exceptions (addition of Bama and removal of slumping West Virginia). I do not believe these teams are infallible and not capable of losing their way out of this, however, I suspect that their past results and my expectations for their future will give the Committee enough of a reason to get them in, even if they don't necessarily "deserve" it (looking at you Seton Hall and Cincinnati!). In case you missed it, here they are:
21 bids from the 20 worst conferences (I assume that either Long Beach State or Murray State will probably fail to win their conference tournament but get an at-large bid. I hope the same for Iona and Oral Roberts but do not believe the Committee will seriously consider them as at-large candidates)
A10 (2 bids): Temple and Saint Louis (in spite of a bad loss by St. Louis over the weekend)
ACC (4 bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia
Big XII (5 bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State, and Kansas State
Big East (7 bids): Syracuse, Marquette, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati, and Seton Hall
Big Ten (6 bids): Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan, Indiana, and Purdue
Conference USA (2 bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis
Missouri Valley (2 bids): Wichita State and Creighton
Mountain West (3 bids): San Diego State, UNLV, and New Mexico
Pac 12 (1 bid): California
SEC (5 bids): Kentucky, Florida, Vanderbilt, Mississippi State and Alabama*
West Coast (3 bids): Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, and BYU
*New team to join the "locks"
-West Virginia's 0-2 week, with a blowout loss to ND, puts them back on the bubble. In locking teams in, I have to make some assumptions about future performance and I thought, for sure, WVU would win at least one of those games.
61 bids taken, leaving 7 more to take. The teams on my list of potential at-large candidates are: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, and Colorado.
Xavier lost at UMass and beat Richmond: HOLDING
St. Joe's lost to Richmond and beat Temple: BACKPEDDLING
UMass beat Xavier and lost at Dayton: OUT
Miami lost at Maryland and beat FSU: HOLDING
NC State lost to UNC and at Clemson: FALLING
West Virginia lost at ND and to Marquette: BACK ON BUBBLE
South Florida lost at Syracuse and beat Cincinnati: RISING
Connecticut won at Villanova and lost to Syracuse: HOLDING
Northwestern lost to Michigan and won at Penn State: BACKPEDDLING
Minnesota lost to Michigan State and to Indiana: FALLING
Illinois lost at Ohio State and beat Iowa: FALLING
Texas lost to Baylor and won at Texas Tech: FALLING
UCF lost at Rice and beat UTEP: FALLING
Colorado State beat New Mexico and lost at SDSU: HOLDING
Oregon won at Oregon State: CALL IT HOLDING
Arizona beat USC and UCLA: RISING
Washington won at Washington State: CALL IT NOT FALLING
Colorado lost to Stanford and beat California: FALLING, THEN RISING
As you can see, the teams aren't doing a nice job of separating themselves. Connecticut was an OT win at Nova away from falling towards the bottom, South Florida eked out a one-point win over Cincy at home to join the discussion, Texas needed OT to beat Texas Tech. Arizona was the only team from this bunch that won twice last week.
My last 7 teams in right now are: Arizona, Xavier, South Florida, West Virginia, Washington, Texas, and Miami. However, I think ultimately one of the Big East teams, Texas, and Miami will NOT make the tournament. Maybe we'll get "lucky" and see a few upsets in conference tournaments and just get rid of some at-large bids. I don't feel confident moving any of the other bubble teams into the tournament right now. I am guessing that Connecticut probably gets in eventually since they will win their final two games and end up opposite Seton Hall or a tired/thin West Virginia team in their first game of the Big East tourney (i.e. three wins from now UConn makes the field). The Pac 12 Tourney could easily be won by Oregon, Colorado, or UCLA which would take that final bid.
Important Bubble Games this week (chronological order):
Xavier at St. Louis
UCF at Memphis
Ohio State at Northwestern
UNLV at Colorado State
South Florida at Louisville
St. Joe's at St. Bonaventure
Miami at NC State
Michigan at Illinois
Colorado at Oregon
West Virginia at South Florida
Washington at UCLA
Yale at Penn (I personally don't think Harvard gets an at-large for similar reasons that I don't think CSU gets theirs, i.e. lack of quality wins, but bubble teams want to see Yale knock off Penn to give Harvard the auto-bid, just in case)
Monday, February 27, 2012
BYU 2011-2012 Regular Season In Review
BYU went 24-7 overall, 12-4 in conference play, with 2 of those wins coming against Division II competition (so for RPI purposes, BYU is 22-7). This was destined to be a rebuilding year with so many newcomers to the roster. When put in that context, 24-7 and 12-4 are not bad marks. However, after back-to-back 30 win seasons, there is a bit of a damper on a 24-win season (for BYU to win 30 before the season ends they would need to win the WCC Tourney and advance to the Elite 8). Here is what I saw from this team.
THE PLAYERS
Seniors
Hartsock was the biggest revelation this season, scoring an additional 7 points per game this season compared to last. Abouo improved his statistics across the board, though his impact seemed to have lessened, if that's possible. It seems like last season, he was the difference in a couple of games with his athleticism and his ability to finish around the rim. This year, the times he was the difference in a game it was a "bad" difference.
As far as senior leadership, this was a mixed bag. BYU would not be 24-7 without Hartsock's emergence and dependibility. No where was that more evident than at Gonzaga. Game in Provo, Noah had 24 points and 14 rebounds, while holding Elias Harris to 7 points and 6 rebounds. Game at the Kennel, without Noah, Elias Harris goes for 19 points and 16 rebounds. In Provo with Hartsock, BYU shot 49%. In Spokane without Hartsock, BYU shot 31%.
Imagine how much more depth this BYU team would have if James Anderson had returned for his redshirt senior season. He certainly wasn't going to wow anyone, but he was a solid defender and this team could use another body in the post. The loss at Gonzaga was really b/c BYU had no BODY in the middle with Hartsock out and Davies and Austin in a bit of foul trouble.
Juniors
The juniors this season were Davies, Cusick, Zylstra, Rogers, and Martineau. Davies, when he has the eye of the tiger, has been virtually unstoppable. It took him a little while to acclimate to the team. He needed a couple of big environments to get going, but when he did, he couldn't really be contained. He scored in double figures 18 of the last 19 games, going for 20+ in 7 of those 18, including each of the last three games, when BYU needed wins to have a chance for the conference title. He had 7 double-digit rebounding games. He led the team in charges taken. He had 3 or more combined blocks and steals in 16 games. His four worst offensive games of the year were all BYU blowout wins. Davies was a man. BYU will need his production this postseason and next season as well.
Cusick has been a bit hit and miss. He valued the ball, never turning the ball over more than twice in a game. He went 9-10 from three over a 6-game stretch of conference play and, for the season, was BYU's best 3-point shooter. He didn't turn it over and he didn't take bad shots, but never made great plays: so he was the anti-Carlino. He played good defense, particularly as the "off-guard" on top of the 2-3 zone. I don't anticipate much change in his role next season. He'll quietly give BYU a solid effort.
Zylstra is BYU's ultimate church ball player. He scored in double figures 8 times. In 8 blowout wins. In BYU's 7 losses, he scored a combined 22 points on 23% shooting and 9% from three. One could argue both sides: when he plays well, BYU dominates, when he plays poorly, BYU loses; or in games where BYU needed Zylstra, he sucked. I would argue the latter: when the bright lights are on, he has oversensitive eyes. BYU can't count on Zylstra another game this season, because they are all big games from here on out. If he scores 10 points again, I'd be shocked. They need someone else to step up or else BYU will lose and lose quickly.
Stephen Rogers has been out so much of this year, it's just unfortunate. When he was healthy, early in the year, he was a big contributor to the team, going for 15 or more points in 4 out of 10 games, coming off the bench! I truly believe his absence was the difference in the Baylor game. If he had been healthy, this rebuilding year would have looked more like a reloading year. Baylor, Loyola Marymount, or at Gonzaga easily could have flipped results, and if BYU were 27-4, they'd be looking at around a 5-seed in the tourney, instead of possibly playing against a 5-seed. Hopefully he can get healthy in the offseason and have a chance to be a leader on next year's team, otherwise, BYU fans will be stuck with Zylstra.
Martineau has played sparingly his entire career, and this year was no different. I don't suspect much will be different next year either.
Sophomores
Well, this list consists of Chris Collinsworth. He played 12 minutes in two games before a second consecutive season-ending injury. Too bad for him.
Freshmen
Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, Nate Austin, Damarcus Harrison, and Josh Sharp are the active freshmen on the roster. Carlino and Winder were obviously starters, which shows just how much of a rebuilding year this was to have two freshmen in the starting lineup playing such significant roles. Carlino makes the big plays, he has the drive to be a champion, but sometimes makes mistakes. When he gets that killer instinct, he can make plays. He reminds me a lot of Jimmer when he was a freshman. If Carlino hangs around four years, he very well could be the next Jimmer in some form. He has a long way to go, but so did Jimmer as a frosh. One thing they have in common from their freshman campaigns: they look like they belong.
Winder is a typically inconsistent freshman, who is occasionally plagued by foul trouble and who only gets rolling offensively when he hits his first shot. He is a great defender however, and BYU will need defense more than offense going forward in the WCC and, hopefully, NCAA Tournaments.
Nate Austin gave BYU a much-needed big man after Collinsworth went down. Coach Rose had to be concerned, but Austin has played solid defensively, I would say by far BYU's most physical presence on defense, though he also has fouled out of way too many games, way too early (he has fouled out of 5 games without reaching the 20-minute mark). He's also shown some range, though he had a few occasional issues in shot selection. But hey, for an unheralded freshman backup C straight off a mission to shoot 56% isn't bad, even if that's 5-9! I don't anticipate he'll fill in for Hartsock fully next year, but between Austin, Sharp, Rogers, and Harward there's potential to match the points and rebounds of a Hartsock.
Harrison never saw a shot he didn't like, but his 33% shooting indicates the rim doesn't return the affection. He clearly has athleticism and plays good defense for a true frosh right out of high school. His minutes have actually INCREASED in big games because of that. If he could withstand the urge to shoot, he could have been a real asset for the team this year. But he couldn't really be trusted to just focus on the defensive end without taking shots on the offensive side. I think if he had a pass-first mentality this year, his minutes, and usefulness, would have increased dramatically. There's definitely the potential there for a WCC Defensive Player of the Year by his junior year.
Sharp just needed some more time between the mission and guarding Elias Harris. Well, and about 30 pounds. If he hits the weights and figures out how to get coordinated, he could see significantly more playing time next season. Honestly though, I don't expect much from him in the future. I see him as the Nick Martineau of this freshman class: not quite good enough to see the floor but not quite so bad that fans get too stressed if he has to play in a pinch.
THE TEAM
I don't recall if I actually posted on this blog or not, but at work we do predictions for out teams and I had that BYU would finish at 25-6. Really, the only losses I didn't anticipate in some fashion were losing to Baylor, Saint Mary's, and Loyola Marymount at home. I figured BYU would win two of those and drop a road game, either at Loyola or San Francisco. I thought BYU would finish 13-3 in conference play and finish second. Again with the Loyola Marymount and Saint Mary's games.
I realize my expectations were probably a little high for a rebuilding year. However, the fact that they nearly met them is a testament to the good work of Coach Rose. He had to battle offseason changes in the coaching staff for the first time in his tenure (and clearly Dave Rice was a great coach, seeing what he has done with UNLV this year), significant injuries to significant players, a mid-season transfer, and a new conference schedule (and refs). He went 6-1 in February, including 3 road wins. He won 11 games away from the Marriott Center including BYU's first ever win at an ACC opponent. He took on 5 teams from "Big Six" conferences, 4 away from home, and went 3-2. He destroyed the likely WAC and Big Sky regular season champs. It wasn't a great schedule, by any means, but in a rebuilding year, he took on a decent schedule and came out with a team that by most accounts will make the NCAA Tournament and could potentially threaten certain 5/6 seeds.
THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
The three losses at home have got to be first on the list. The Marriott Center has been a nearly impregnable fortress, so to lose three has got to be a major disappointment. Finishing third in the WCC is also right up there (though that is tied in with the three home losses). Finally, the loss at Utah State, who ended up being a mediocre team from a mediocre conference. Granted, at the time, the Aggies appeared to be formidable. It was on the road in the first game of the season against an in-state rival. BUT...those are the games BYU needs to win to move to that next level. And, in fact, it is probably the biggest obstacle BYU has to making the NCAA Tournament.
THE HIGHS
To me, there were only a few games that showed me how good this particular BYU team can be. The first was actually the loss to Gonzaga. I do not believe in moral victories by any means, however, BYU played in one of the most difficult venues in the country, against a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team with a shot at a conference title on the line. They did so without the services of their leading scorer Noah Hartsock (which came as a bit of a surprise to the team as he attempted to give it a go). They were already down once-upon-a-November's 6th man Stephen Rogers. They shot 31% overall and 21% from three. Yet, they were a Brock Zylstra WIDE OPEN missed three with about 3 minutes left from cutting the lead to 4 and having a legitimate shot at pulling it off with all the momentum on their side. That was a high for me, actually. It means that this team can compete with solid competition, even when not playing its best ball.
Obviously, the home win against Gonzaga was big too. A first-ever win at an ACC school, albeit a somewhat weak Virginia Tech team, was important for program credibility (a loss there and BYU is wondering if they'll get a 1 or a 2 seed in the NIT and not an 11/12 seed in the NCAA Tournament). Really though, that was about it. Who knew that the wins against Nevada and Oregon would end up being the 2nd and 3rd best wins BYU would have all season long.
Good year. I expect even bigger things next season though!
THE PLAYERS
Seniors
Hartsock was the biggest revelation this season, scoring an additional 7 points per game this season compared to last. Abouo improved his statistics across the board, though his impact seemed to have lessened, if that's possible. It seems like last season, he was the difference in a couple of games with his athleticism and his ability to finish around the rim. This year, the times he was the difference in a game it was a "bad" difference.
As far as senior leadership, this was a mixed bag. BYU would not be 24-7 without Hartsock's emergence and dependibility. No where was that more evident than at Gonzaga. Game in Provo, Noah had 24 points and 14 rebounds, while holding Elias Harris to 7 points and 6 rebounds. Game at the Kennel, without Noah, Elias Harris goes for 19 points and 16 rebounds. In Provo with Hartsock, BYU shot 49%. In Spokane without Hartsock, BYU shot 31%.
Imagine how much more depth this BYU team would have if James Anderson had returned for his redshirt senior season. He certainly wasn't going to wow anyone, but he was a solid defender and this team could use another body in the post. The loss at Gonzaga was really b/c BYU had no BODY in the middle with Hartsock out and Davies and Austin in a bit of foul trouble.
Juniors
The juniors this season were Davies, Cusick, Zylstra, Rogers, and Martineau. Davies, when he has the eye of the tiger, has been virtually unstoppable. It took him a little while to acclimate to the team. He needed a couple of big environments to get going, but when he did, he couldn't really be contained. He scored in double figures 18 of the last 19 games, going for 20+ in 7 of those 18, including each of the last three games, when BYU needed wins to have a chance for the conference title. He had 7 double-digit rebounding games. He led the team in charges taken. He had 3 or more combined blocks and steals in 16 games. His four worst offensive games of the year were all BYU blowout wins. Davies was a man. BYU will need his production this postseason and next season as well.
Cusick has been a bit hit and miss. He valued the ball, never turning the ball over more than twice in a game. He went 9-10 from three over a 6-game stretch of conference play and, for the season, was BYU's best 3-point shooter. He didn't turn it over and he didn't take bad shots, but never made great plays: so he was the anti-Carlino. He played good defense, particularly as the "off-guard" on top of the 2-3 zone. I don't anticipate much change in his role next season. He'll quietly give BYU a solid effort.
Zylstra is BYU's ultimate church ball player. He scored in double figures 8 times. In 8 blowout wins. In BYU's 7 losses, he scored a combined 22 points on 23% shooting and 9% from three. One could argue both sides: when he plays well, BYU dominates, when he plays poorly, BYU loses; or in games where BYU needed Zylstra, he sucked. I would argue the latter: when the bright lights are on, he has oversensitive eyes. BYU can't count on Zylstra another game this season, because they are all big games from here on out. If he scores 10 points again, I'd be shocked. They need someone else to step up or else BYU will lose and lose quickly.
Stephen Rogers has been out so much of this year, it's just unfortunate. When he was healthy, early in the year, he was a big contributor to the team, going for 15 or more points in 4 out of 10 games, coming off the bench! I truly believe his absence was the difference in the Baylor game. If he had been healthy, this rebuilding year would have looked more like a reloading year. Baylor, Loyola Marymount, or at Gonzaga easily could have flipped results, and if BYU were 27-4, they'd be looking at around a 5-seed in the tourney, instead of possibly playing against a 5-seed. Hopefully he can get healthy in the offseason and have a chance to be a leader on next year's team, otherwise, BYU fans will be stuck with Zylstra.
Martineau has played sparingly his entire career, and this year was no different. I don't suspect much will be different next year either.
Sophomores
Well, this list consists of Chris Collinsworth. He played 12 minutes in two games before a second consecutive season-ending injury. Too bad for him.
Freshmen
Matt Carlino, Anson Winder, Nate Austin, Damarcus Harrison, and Josh Sharp are the active freshmen on the roster. Carlino and Winder were obviously starters, which shows just how much of a rebuilding year this was to have two freshmen in the starting lineup playing such significant roles. Carlino makes the big plays, he has the drive to be a champion, but sometimes makes mistakes. When he gets that killer instinct, he can make plays. He reminds me a lot of Jimmer when he was a freshman. If Carlino hangs around four years, he very well could be the next Jimmer in some form. He has a long way to go, but so did Jimmer as a frosh. One thing they have in common from their freshman campaigns: they look like they belong.
Winder is a typically inconsistent freshman, who is occasionally plagued by foul trouble and who only gets rolling offensively when he hits his first shot. He is a great defender however, and BYU will need defense more than offense going forward in the WCC and, hopefully, NCAA Tournaments.
Nate Austin gave BYU a much-needed big man after Collinsworth went down. Coach Rose had to be concerned, but Austin has played solid defensively, I would say by far BYU's most physical presence on defense, though he also has fouled out of way too many games, way too early (he has fouled out of 5 games without reaching the 20-minute mark). He's also shown some range, though he had a few occasional issues in shot selection. But hey, for an unheralded freshman backup C straight off a mission to shoot 56% isn't bad, even if that's 5-9! I don't anticipate he'll fill in for Hartsock fully next year, but between Austin, Sharp, Rogers, and Harward there's potential to match the points and rebounds of a Hartsock.
Harrison never saw a shot he didn't like, but his 33% shooting indicates the rim doesn't return the affection. He clearly has athleticism and plays good defense for a true frosh right out of high school. His minutes have actually INCREASED in big games because of that. If he could withstand the urge to shoot, he could have been a real asset for the team this year. But he couldn't really be trusted to just focus on the defensive end without taking shots on the offensive side. I think if he had a pass-first mentality this year, his minutes, and usefulness, would have increased dramatically. There's definitely the potential there for a WCC Defensive Player of the Year by his junior year.
Sharp just needed some more time between the mission and guarding Elias Harris. Well, and about 30 pounds. If he hits the weights and figures out how to get coordinated, he could see significantly more playing time next season. Honestly though, I don't expect much from him in the future. I see him as the Nick Martineau of this freshman class: not quite good enough to see the floor but not quite so bad that fans get too stressed if he has to play in a pinch.
THE TEAM
I don't recall if I actually posted on this blog or not, but at work we do predictions for out teams and I had that BYU would finish at 25-6. Really, the only losses I didn't anticipate in some fashion were losing to Baylor, Saint Mary's, and Loyola Marymount at home. I figured BYU would win two of those and drop a road game, either at Loyola or San Francisco. I thought BYU would finish 13-3 in conference play and finish second. Again with the Loyola Marymount and Saint Mary's games.
I realize my expectations were probably a little high for a rebuilding year. However, the fact that they nearly met them is a testament to the good work of Coach Rose. He had to battle offseason changes in the coaching staff for the first time in his tenure (and clearly Dave Rice was a great coach, seeing what he has done with UNLV this year), significant injuries to significant players, a mid-season transfer, and a new conference schedule (and refs). He went 6-1 in February, including 3 road wins. He won 11 games away from the Marriott Center including BYU's first ever win at an ACC opponent. He took on 5 teams from "Big Six" conferences, 4 away from home, and went 3-2. He destroyed the likely WAC and Big Sky regular season champs. It wasn't a great schedule, by any means, but in a rebuilding year, he took on a decent schedule and came out with a team that by most accounts will make the NCAA Tournament and could potentially threaten certain 5/6 seeds.
THE DISAPPOINTMENTS
The three losses at home have got to be first on the list. The Marriott Center has been a nearly impregnable fortress, so to lose three has got to be a major disappointment. Finishing third in the WCC is also right up there (though that is tied in with the three home losses). Finally, the loss at Utah State, who ended up being a mediocre team from a mediocre conference. Granted, at the time, the Aggies appeared to be formidable. It was on the road in the first game of the season against an in-state rival. BUT...those are the games BYU needs to win to move to that next level. And, in fact, it is probably the biggest obstacle BYU has to making the NCAA Tournament.
THE HIGHS
To me, there were only a few games that showed me how good this particular BYU team can be. The first was actually the loss to Gonzaga. I do not believe in moral victories by any means, however, BYU played in one of the most difficult venues in the country, against a sure-fire NCAA Tournament team with a shot at a conference title on the line. They did so without the services of their leading scorer Noah Hartsock (which came as a bit of a surprise to the team as he attempted to give it a go). They were already down once-upon-a-November's 6th man Stephen Rogers. They shot 31% overall and 21% from three. Yet, they were a Brock Zylstra WIDE OPEN missed three with about 3 minutes left from cutting the lead to 4 and having a legitimate shot at pulling it off with all the momentum on their side. That was a high for me, actually. It means that this team can compete with solid competition, even when not playing its best ball.
Obviously, the home win against Gonzaga was big too. A first-ever win at an ACC school, albeit a somewhat weak Virginia Tech team, was important for program credibility (a loss there and BYU is wondering if they'll get a 1 or a 2 seed in the NIT and not an 11/12 seed in the NCAA Tournament). Really though, that was about it. Who knew that the wins against Nevada and Oregon would end up being the 2nd and 3rd best wins BYU would have all season long.
Good year. I expect even bigger things next season though!
Wednesday, February 22, 2012
Oh, Lunardi...
Last year was the MWC's strongest season ever, with three teams in the dance, all single digit seeds, with two of them advancing to the Sweet 16. This year, the league is pretty good with three NCAA Tournament caliber teams. BYU and Utah have obviously left the league, which kind of hurt the MWC. Other teams have emerged this year and Utah is awful, so the league is in good shape, but it's not like last season. CSU, which currently sits in a tie for 4th place in the standings, is considered an NCAA Tournament bubble team. After a big win at home against New Mexico on Tuesday night, Lunardi threw them as the last team into his field of 68.
That's a nice story. Now, let's look at a few facts about CSU and then some MWC history. One, CSU has only 2 wins over the RPI top 50. Two, CSU has only 2 road wins, and both are outside the RPI top 100. Three, CSU has 3 losses outside the RPI top 100. That doesn't scream NCAA Tournament team to anyone.
Now the MWC history: no MWC team has ever got into the tournament via at-large bid with 9 losses. CSU is currently 17-9. The worst MWC team to ever get an at-large bid was the 2011 UNLV Rebels at 24-8, which had made the tournament 3 of the prior 4 seasons and advanced to the Sweet 16 once in that span. They had a coach that had been to a Final Four and had led four different teams to the NCAA Tournament. In 2009, legendary coach Steve Fischer and the SDSU Aztecs were 23-9: no bid. In 2008, Big Ten legend Steve Alford and the New Mexico Lobos were 24-8: no bid. They actually set a record that year for being the team with the highest RPI to ever miss the NCAA Tournament. CSU hasn't been to the tournament since 2003. Their coach hasn't ever coached in the NCAA Tournament. What are the odds that THIS team breaks a long-standing trend?
If CSU needs an at-large bid, it means they didn't win the MWC Tourney, which means the best record they could possibly have is 22-10, and that assumes wins at SDSU, home against UNLV, and two in the conference tournament, likely against TCU and New Mexico. It's a nice story. I love Tim Miles, he's a great guy. But an MWC team with double digit losses is going to the NIT. CSU will have a chance to make some serious noise there, however. And with 6 significant contributors returning next season, 2012-2013 might be the year for the Rams to make the NCAA Tournament. If they can rattle off 5 straight wins, I'll be willing to put them back in the discussion, but for now, they are a fringe team at best. RPI is only one criteria and it's the only one even close to putting CSU in the discussion here. Look at everything the Committee looks at. Look at the history. Sorry, Rams...
That's a nice story. Now, let's look at a few facts about CSU and then some MWC history. One, CSU has only 2 wins over the RPI top 50. Two, CSU has only 2 road wins, and both are outside the RPI top 100. Three, CSU has 3 losses outside the RPI top 100. That doesn't scream NCAA Tournament team to anyone.
Now the MWC history: no MWC team has ever got into the tournament via at-large bid with 9 losses. CSU is currently 17-9. The worst MWC team to ever get an at-large bid was the 2011 UNLV Rebels at 24-8, which had made the tournament 3 of the prior 4 seasons and advanced to the Sweet 16 once in that span. They had a coach that had been to a Final Four and had led four different teams to the NCAA Tournament. In 2009, legendary coach Steve Fischer and the SDSU Aztecs were 23-9: no bid. In 2008, Big Ten legend Steve Alford and the New Mexico Lobos were 24-8: no bid. They actually set a record that year for being the team with the highest RPI to ever miss the NCAA Tournament. CSU hasn't been to the tournament since 2003. Their coach hasn't ever coached in the NCAA Tournament. What are the odds that THIS team breaks a long-standing trend?
If CSU needs an at-large bid, it means they didn't win the MWC Tourney, which means the best record they could possibly have is 22-10, and that assumes wins at SDSU, home against UNLV, and two in the conference tournament, likely against TCU and New Mexico. It's a nice story. I love Tim Miles, he's a great guy. But an MWC team with double digit losses is going to the NIT. CSU will have a chance to make some serious noise there, however. And with 6 significant contributors returning next season, 2012-2013 might be the year for the Rams to make the NCAA Tournament. If they can rattle off 5 straight wins, I'll be willing to put them back in the discussion, but for now, they are a fringe team at best. RPI is only one criteria and it's the only one even close to putting CSU in the discussion here. Look at everything the Committee looks at. Look at the history. Sorry, Rams...
Monday, February 20, 2012
The Week That Was For BYU
BYU brought home two more road victories this week, giving them 11 wins away from the Marriott Center, by winning at 5th place San Francisco and at last place Santa Clara. More importantly, they kept pace in the WCC race, which got a lot tighter with two upsets this week (Loyola Marymount beating St. Mary's and Gonzaga losing at San Francisco). They are now tied in second with Gonzaga, just one game behind suddenly struggling St. Mary's. The impressive part about this team is that it truly has been a team effort.
This week demonstrated that as much as any other. Carlino went off for 30 points, including hitting the game-winner with 18 seconds left at San Francisco. Davies and Hartsock follow that up with both going for 20 the next game at Santa Clara. Abouo pitched in double-digit scoring in both games. Zylstra added 12 at Santa Clara. Nate Austin scored a combined 12 off the bench while providing 35 minutes of much-needed rest to Davies and Hartsock.
While I don't necessarily enjoy Zylstra, this team has 8 guys that I would not have a problem seeing on the floor in a tight game. That doesn't appear to be particularly deep, but if you consider that Collinsworth and Rogers are both out with injuries, it means that the team started with 10 guys the fans could (mostly) trust. At point guard, Carlino is backed up by Cusick, who takes care of the ball and plays very good defense. At off-guard, Anson Winder is backed up by both Zylstra and Cusick. At the 3, Charles Abouo is backed up by Zylstra (and potentially Winder if BYU goes with a small lineup). At the 4/5 spots, Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are backed up by Nate Austin.
If Stephen Rogers returns to the fold, that is a pretty solid 9. If BYU wants to make any kind of serious run in March, it will certainly need Rogers' ability to stretch the floor on O, and be another potential body on D to the foul-prone Abouo, Davies, and Austin. Josh Sharp doesn't give BYU much on either side of the floor right now. Damarcus Harrison is a lot better on D right now than he is on O, but BYU doesn't need another guy off the bench to play D. In February, those guys can give you a half-dozen minutes in a pinch. In March, however, they can't give you anything. Maybe Harrison can help slow down a dangerous SG/SF if Winder or Abouo gets in foul trouble (provided he agrees not to shoot the ball on O), but that's it.
Anyway, BYU should make the tournament, regardless of the result against Gonzaga, so they are just playing for seeding at this point. With so many guys banged up, I wonder if that will result in some tentative play on Thursday. Hartsock took a nasty fall and was "scared" about his knee. How will that impact his aggressiveness against the Zags? A win would lock up the 2-seed and double-bye in the conference tournament, and it could give them a share of the conference title should St. Mary's trip up at San Francisco. A loss could potentially drop them down to 4th place and a quarterfinal rematch against surging San Francisco. However, with back-to-back road games scoring in the 80's, BYU should have the confidence to match up against anyone in the conference on a neutral floor.
This is an exciting time of year. BYU continues the same kind of dominance in February that it had in the MWC: they win all the games they should win. Next up comes their first real challenge of February. Given how the last two games against Gonzaga have played out (2011 NCAA Tourney and 2012 WCC Game), it will be interesting to see how BYU handles the road environment. Clearly, the Cougars are the type of team that Gonzaga struggles against. Will the home crowd help push the Zags over the hump or will the make-up of the BYU roster and their style of play continue to be too much for them?
Like I said, it's a fun time of year. I expect a good game on Thursday. I expect a tight, back-and-forth game and I anticipate BYU will be within striking distance in the final 4 minutes. Being that The Kennel is such a hostile environment, I anticipate the young guards to buckle under the pressure for a significant stretch at some point over the 40 minutes. That will prove to be too much to overcome and the Zags win about 74-68. The thing BYU has going for it: it plays much more efficient O than Gonzaga. If it comes down to a high-scoring shootout, BYU would seem to be the favorite. Zags keep it at about 145 points or less, Zags should get it. Zags get this one. (As if I would jinx the Cougars by picking them to win: that's a sure-fire sign of a blowout loss!)
This week demonstrated that as much as any other. Carlino went off for 30 points, including hitting the game-winner with 18 seconds left at San Francisco. Davies and Hartsock follow that up with both going for 20 the next game at Santa Clara. Abouo pitched in double-digit scoring in both games. Zylstra added 12 at Santa Clara. Nate Austin scored a combined 12 off the bench while providing 35 minutes of much-needed rest to Davies and Hartsock.
While I don't necessarily enjoy Zylstra, this team has 8 guys that I would not have a problem seeing on the floor in a tight game. That doesn't appear to be particularly deep, but if you consider that Collinsworth and Rogers are both out with injuries, it means that the team started with 10 guys the fans could (mostly) trust. At point guard, Carlino is backed up by Cusick, who takes care of the ball and plays very good defense. At off-guard, Anson Winder is backed up by both Zylstra and Cusick. At the 3, Charles Abouo is backed up by Zylstra (and potentially Winder if BYU goes with a small lineup). At the 4/5 spots, Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are backed up by Nate Austin.
If Stephen Rogers returns to the fold, that is a pretty solid 9. If BYU wants to make any kind of serious run in March, it will certainly need Rogers' ability to stretch the floor on O, and be another potential body on D to the foul-prone Abouo, Davies, and Austin. Josh Sharp doesn't give BYU much on either side of the floor right now. Damarcus Harrison is a lot better on D right now than he is on O, but BYU doesn't need another guy off the bench to play D. In February, those guys can give you a half-dozen minutes in a pinch. In March, however, they can't give you anything. Maybe Harrison can help slow down a dangerous SG/SF if Winder or Abouo gets in foul trouble (provided he agrees not to shoot the ball on O), but that's it.
Anyway, BYU should make the tournament, regardless of the result against Gonzaga, so they are just playing for seeding at this point. With so many guys banged up, I wonder if that will result in some tentative play on Thursday. Hartsock took a nasty fall and was "scared" about his knee. How will that impact his aggressiveness against the Zags? A win would lock up the 2-seed and double-bye in the conference tournament, and it could give them a share of the conference title should St. Mary's trip up at San Francisco. A loss could potentially drop them down to 4th place and a quarterfinal rematch against surging San Francisco. However, with back-to-back road games scoring in the 80's, BYU should have the confidence to match up against anyone in the conference on a neutral floor.
This is an exciting time of year. BYU continues the same kind of dominance in February that it had in the MWC: they win all the games they should win. Next up comes their first real challenge of February. Given how the last two games against Gonzaga have played out (2011 NCAA Tourney and 2012 WCC Game), it will be interesting to see how BYU handles the road environment. Clearly, the Cougars are the type of team that Gonzaga struggles against. Will the home crowd help push the Zags over the hump or will the make-up of the BYU roster and their style of play continue to be too much for them?
Like I said, it's a fun time of year. I expect a good game on Thursday. I expect a tight, back-and-forth game and I anticipate BYU will be within striking distance in the final 4 minutes. Being that The Kennel is such a hostile environment, I anticipate the young guards to buckle under the pressure for a significant stretch at some point over the 40 minutes. That will prove to be too much to overcome and the Zags win about 74-68. The thing BYU has going for it: it plays much more efficient O than Gonzaga. If it comes down to a high-scoring shootout, BYU would seem to be the favorite. Zags keep it at about 145 points or less, Zags should get it. Zags get this one. (As if I would jinx the Cougars by picking them to win: that's a sure-fire sign of a blowout loss!)
Significant Movement in Mo's Field
I listed 10 guaranteed 1-Bid Leagues last week, however, this week, I'm ready to go ahead and stomp my foot down on a few others. So there are 16 conferences that will only send one team to the NCAA Tournament. Period. Last week, I had these 10: America East, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, and SWAC. This week, I'm willing to concede that Atlantic Sun, Horizon, Ivy, MAC, Sun Belt, and WAC will be one-bid leagues.
Belmont (Atlantic Sun) has an RPI in the 70's and they are without a top 100 game on the remainder of their schedule, so that won't improve. Cleveland State got drubbed at home by Drexel in Bracketbusters and that eliminated any chance for an at-large. Harvard beat Yale Saturday night, so the only way they would need an at-large is if they lose at least two more regular season games, and if they lose two more, they don't have the resume to make the tournament. Akron lost at Oral Roberts which ended any hope they had of making it as an at-large. Middle Tennessee is also negatively impacted by Akron's loss, since their "best" win was at home against Akron. Their only chance at another top 100 win (to get them to 5) would be in the conference tourney against Denver (if Denver can stay in the top 100). Nevada lost at Iona in their Bracketbuster matchup, which strengthens the Gaels position but kills any slim chance the Wolfpack had. I think Bracketbusters, even though there was only one headliner, ended up busting a few brackets after all. (16 Bids)
That leaves these four conferences as POTENTIAL two-bid leagues if regular season champs don't win the conference tourney: Big West, MAAC, Ohio Valley, and Summit. Long Beach State lost at Creighton, which may have eliminated them. However, given that so many "bubble" teams have been sliding down or off the board, I won't eliminate the possibility of a top 40 RPI team getting in, even from a smaller conference. And they've been so dominant in league play, it's tough to imagine they don't just take care of business in the conference tournament. I already mentioned Iona's win over Nevada. I think Iona deserves to be in just because their coaches all wear bow-ties. Murray State whipped up on St. Mary's, which has to all but seal up a bid for them. Oral Roberts probably won't get an at-large, but with an RPI in the top 50, a winning record against the RPI top 100, and 10 wins away from home, they have to get a long look by the Committee. I think up to one of these teams will earn an at-large because they won't win their conference tournament. (5 Bids)
My multi-bid leagues' locks are as follows (for additional info here is a link to my previous post http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-field-of-68.html):
ACC: No changes. 4 Bids.
Atlantic 10: Only change is St. Joe's playing their way into consideration with 5 wins in their last 6 contests, including 3 road games. 2 Bids.
Big XII: K-State moves up into a "lock" with a win at Baylor on Saturday. Big XII now guaranteed 5 bids. Texas is in a more precarious position after their loss to Oklahoma State, but they immediately have a chance to remedy the situation with a game today against limping Baylor.
Big East: UConn is in a more fragile position after a blowout home-loss to Marquette, West Virginia is in a more solid one after a convincing win at Pitt, and Seton Hall lost at Cincy over the weekend which hurts Seton's position and helps Cincy. Unfortunately, I think the 3 teams listed not named UConn get in for sure at this point (it's unfortunate because I don't think Cincy's resume is any better than most of the mid-major bubble teams, but at this point, it's safe to assume they're a lock), giving the Big East 8 Bids.
Big Ten: Purdue won its way to the right side of the bubble at Illinois, plus they have 5 top 50 wins. With a lot of the mucky-mucks pushing for as many as 9 Big Ten teams, a finish at around .500 would seem to be enough to get the Boilermakers in. Illinois may be on their way completely off the bubble, having lost 8 of their last 9 games and watched their RPI slide over 20 spots to the high 60's. Minnesota lost their 4th game in their last 6 at Northwestern over the weekend, their RPI is dropping as well, and they still have games (read: potential losses) against Michigan State, Indiana, and at Wisconsin, plus the Big Ten tournament. They could easily be 19-14 and 6-12 in Big Ten play. Northwestern got a much needed win and still has chances to prove themselves at home against Michigan and Ohio State. They'll need wins at both Penn State and feisty Iowa to stay in the hunt, especially if they drop both games to Michigan and the Buckeyes, but I think they can/will get enough done to get a bid, though I won't lock them in right now. I think the fantasy of 75% representation from the Big Ten is quickly coming to an end thanks to Illinois and Minnesota's late collapses. 6 Bids.
CUSA: No change. 2 Bids.
Missouri Valley: No change. 2 Bids.
Mountain West: New Mexico, with their wins this week at San Diego State and at home against UNLV is in. 3 Bids, and only 3 Bids for the MWC. Colorado State (loss at Boise State) and Wyoming (loss to interim-coach-coached Air Force) are done. Although, Colorado State's win against Wyoming does keep them on the peripheral of the discussion. The very peripheral.
Pac 12: Oregon would normally be out of the picture after blowing a late lead at Cal Thursday night, even with a win at Stanford over the weekend, but with so many other teams losing, there's still a chance for them. I am going to go ahead and lock Cal in. I think the Golden Bears are esentially on the cusp of clinching an at-large bid having won 5 straight Pac 12 games: they're 22-6 with an RPI in the top 30. Arizona had a chance to make some noise with a win at Washington but fell short, leaving both of those two teams in that 64-72 range, and with a legitimate chance to get in. Colorado continues to hang around the discussion, just one rung lower than Colorado State though. But they a legitimate shot if they can win out (which would give them wins over Cal and at Oregon). Anything short of that and they are out. I still think the Pac is looking at Cal the only team to lock up 1 Bid.
SEC: No positive change: Ole Miss and Arkansas are probably completely out of the picture now. Mississippi State is trying to pull an Illinois and go from sure-fire 7/8 seed to the bubble. 4 Bids.
West Coast: BYU's win at Santa Clara locks them into the tournament picture. If they managed to lose at home to Portland AND in their first game of the WCC Tourney, they could mess it up, but I find that highly unlikely. With so many other teams around them falling by the wayside, BYU winning 7 of 8, including 4 road contests, should be good enough to lock them in. 3 Bids.
By my count, that's 61 bids taken and a lot of competition for those last 7 bids, but not a lot of teams that seem to "want" it. The list I'm still considering is: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, Alabama. 17 teams for 6 bids, unless there is a major upset in a multi-bid league's tournament, which would only reduce that number.
As of the time of this writing, my 7 picks would be (in a particular order!): Xavier, Alabama, Arizona, Texas, Northwestern, Connecticut, Miami. That would put Texas, NW, UConn, and Miami in the play-in games. I'm sure it will all look different next week, but I feel safe with my 61 called bids and 17 teams on the bubble fighting for the last 7 spots.
Big games this week to help clear up the picture:
Baylor at Texas (a chance to hook a bid for the Horns?)
Xavier at UMass (loser comes off the board)
Michigan at Northwestern (NW wins and I'll lock them in)
UNC at NC State (win and they could jump Miami)
New Mexico at Colorado State (CSU has a tough schedule, but lost ALL their tough games)
Michigan State at Minnesota (last chance for Minny)
Alabama at Arkansas (win and Bama is in)
Mississippi State at Alabama (Bama can help their seeding here too)
Illinois at Ohio State and Iowa at Illinois (one more loss, and I'll officially yank the Illini)
California at Colorado (Cal could move up to a single digit seed or Colorado could get a seat back at the table)
Belmont (Atlantic Sun) has an RPI in the 70's and they are without a top 100 game on the remainder of their schedule, so that won't improve. Cleveland State got drubbed at home by Drexel in Bracketbusters and that eliminated any chance for an at-large. Harvard beat Yale Saturday night, so the only way they would need an at-large is if they lose at least two more regular season games, and if they lose two more, they don't have the resume to make the tournament. Akron lost at Oral Roberts which ended any hope they had of making it as an at-large. Middle Tennessee is also negatively impacted by Akron's loss, since their "best" win was at home against Akron. Their only chance at another top 100 win (to get them to 5) would be in the conference tourney against Denver (if Denver can stay in the top 100). Nevada lost at Iona in their Bracketbuster matchup, which strengthens the Gaels position but kills any slim chance the Wolfpack had. I think Bracketbusters, even though there was only one headliner, ended up busting a few brackets after all. (16 Bids)
That leaves these four conferences as POTENTIAL two-bid leagues if regular season champs don't win the conference tourney: Big West, MAAC, Ohio Valley, and Summit. Long Beach State lost at Creighton, which may have eliminated them. However, given that so many "bubble" teams have been sliding down or off the board, I won't eliminate the possibility of a top 40 RPI team getting in, even from a smaller conference. And they've been so dominant in league play, it's tough to imagine they don't just take care of business in the conference tournament. I already mentioned Iona's win over Nevada. I think Iona deserves to be in just because their coaches all wear bow-ties. Murray State whipped up on St. Mary's, which has to all but seal up a bid for them. Oral Roberts probably won't get an at-large, but with an RPI in the top 50, a winning record against the RPI top 100, and 10 wins away from home, they have to get a long look by the Committee. I think up to one of these teams will earn an at-large because they won't win their conference tournament. (5 Bids)
My multi-bid leagues' locks are as follows (for additional info here is a link to my previous post http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2012/02/mos-field-of-68.html):
ACC: No changes. 4 Bids.
Atlantic 10: Only change is St. Joe's playing their way into consideration with 5 wins in their last 6 contests, including 3 road games. 2 Bids.
Big XII: K-State moves up into a "lock" with a win at Baylor on Saturday. Big XII now guaranteed 5 bids. Texas is in a more precarious position after their loss to Oklahoma State, but they immediately have a chance to remedy the situation with a game today against limping Baylor.
Big East: UConn is in a more fragile position after a blowout home-loss to Marquette, West Virginia is in a more solid one after a convincing win at Pitt, and Seton Hall lost at Cincy over the weekend which hurts Seton's position and helps Cincy. Unfortunately, I think the 3 teams listed not named UConn get in for sure at this point (it's unfortunate because I don't think Cincy's resume is any better than most of the mid-major bubble teams, but at this point, it's safe to assume they're a lock), giving the Big East 8 Bids.
Big Ten: Purdue won its way to the right side of the bubble at Illinois, plus they have 5 top 50 wins. With a lot of the mucky-mucks pushing for as many as 9 Big Ten teams, a finish at around .500 would seem to be enough to get the Boilermakers in. Illinois may be on their way completely off the bubble, having lost 8 of their last 9 games and watched their RPI slide over 20 spots to the high 60's. Minnesota lost their 4th game in their last 6 at Northwestern over the weekend, their RPI is dropping as well, and they still have games (read: potential losses) against Michigan State, Indiana, and at Wisconsin, plus the Big Ten tournament. They could easily be 19-14 and 6-12 in Big Ten play. Northwestern got a much needed win and still has chances to prove themselves at home against Michigan and Ohio State. They'll need wins at both Penn State and feisty Iowa to stay in the hunt, especially if they drop both games to Michigan and the Buckeyes, but I think they can/will get enough done to get a bid, though I won't lock them in right now. I think the fantasy of 75% representation from the Big Ten is quickly coming to an end thanks to Illinois and Minnesota's late collapses. 6 Bids.
CUSA: No change. 2 Bids.
Missouri Valley: No change. 2 Bids.
Mountain West: New Mexico, with their wins this week at San Diego State and at home against UNLV is in. 3 Bids, and only 3 Bids for the MWC. Colorado State (loss at Boise State) and Wyoming (loss to interim-coach-coached Air Force) are done. Although, Colorado State's win against Wyoming does keep them on the peripheral of the discussion. The very peripheral.
Pac 12: Oregon would normally be out of the picture after blowing a late lead at Cal Thursday night, even with a win at Stanford over the weekend, but with so many other teams losing, there's still a chance for them. I am going to go ahead and lock Cal in. I think the Golden Bears are esentially on the cusp of clinching an at-large bid having won 5 straight Pac 12 games: they're 22-6 with an RPI in the top 30. Arizona had a chance to make some noise with a win at Washington but fell short, leaving both of those two teams in that 64-72 range, and with a legitimate chance to get in. Colorado continues to hang around the discussion, just one rung lower than Colorado State though. But they a legitimate shot if they can win out (which would give them wins over Cal and at Oregon). Anything short of that and they are out. I still think the Pac is looking at Cal the only team to lock up 1 Bid.
SEC: No positive change: Ole Miss and Arkansas are probably completely out of the picture now. Mississippi State is trying to pull an Illinois and go from sure-fire 7/8 seed to the bubble. 4 Bids.
West Coast: BYU's win at Santa Clara locks them into the tournament picture. If they managed to lose at home to Portland AND in their first game of the WCC Tourney, they could mess it up, but I find that highly unlikely. With so many other teams around them falling by the wayside, BYU winning 7 of 8, including 4 road contests, should be good enough to lock them in. 3 Bids.
By my count, that's 61 bids taken and a lot of competition for those last 7 bids, but not a lot of teams that seem to "want" it. The list I'm still considering is: Xavier, St. Joe's, UMass, Miami, NC State, Connecticut, Northwestern, Minnesota, Illinois, Texas, UCF, Colorado State, Oregon, Arizona, Washington, Colorado, Alabama. 17 teams for 6 bids, unless there is a major upset in a multi-bid league's tournament, which would only reduce that number.
As of the time of this writing, my 7 picks would be (in a particular order!): Xavier, Alabama, Arizona, Texas, Northwestern, Connecticut, Miami. That would put Texas, NW, UConn, and Miami in the play-in games. I'm sure it will all look different next week, but I feel safe with my 61 called bids and 17 teams on the bubble fighting for the last 7 spots.
Big games this week to help clear up the picture:
Baylor at Texas (a chance to hook a bid for the Horns?)
Xavier at UMass (loser comes off the board)
Michigan at Northwestern (NW wins and I'll lock them in)
UNC at NC State (win and they could jump Miami)
New Mexico at Colorado State (CSU has a tough schedule, but lost ALL their tough games)
Michigan State at Minnesota (last chance for Minny)
Alabama at Arkansas (win and Bama is in)
Mississippi State at Alabama (Bama can help their seeding here too)
Illinois at Ohio State and Iowa at Illinois (one more loss, and I'll officially yank the Illini)
California at Colorado (Cal could move up to a single digit seed or Colorado could get a seat back at the table)
Sunday, February 12, 2012
Mo's Field of 68
The following conferences are all guaranteed one-bid leagues (10 Bids): America East, Big Sky, Big South, Colonial, MEAC, Northeast, Patriot, Southern, Southland, and SWAC. Whoever wins the conference tournament makes the NCAA Tournament, no one else has a chance.
The following conferences could see a regular season conference champion in contention for an at-large bid to the tournament if they don't win the conference tournament (10 Bids): Atlantic Sun, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Ohio Valley, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC.
Here is a list of the teams from the conferences listed above: Belmont, Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Murray State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee State, and Nevada. Realistically, Murray State is the only near-certainty from this list, though a loss to St. Mary's next week could hurt their chances. The other teams would probably need to win out and play in the conference tournament championship game to be real consideration for an at-large bid. Harvard would have to lose two more games to not win the Ivy League (no conference tournament), which I think would probably necessarily eliminate them from at-large contention, so I think the Ivy League is a one-bid maximum league. Long Beach State, Harvard, Middle Tennessee State, and Oral Roberts all have top 50 RPIs at the moment and, along with Murray State, are the likely candidates to get at-larges if they don't win their conference tournaments: bubble teams should pray they all win their conference tourneys to eliminate any doubt. Belmont, Cleveland State, Iona, Akron, and Nevada don't really have any shots at any at-large consideration, but a lot of the "experts" leave them on their "boards" so I will too. (2 Bids)
Here are my multi-bid leagues and my "locks" for the tourney.
Atlantic 10 (2 Bids): Temple and Saint Louis. Xavier and UMass are in contention for an at-large.
ACC (4 Bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia. Miami and NC State in contention, ultimately, one of them probably makes the tournament.
Big XII (4 Bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State. Kansas State and Texas in contention (K-State might have locked in but for an epic second half collapse on Saturday at Texas), one of those two should make the tourney.
Big East (5 Bids, don't freak out, plenty of Bubble Candidates here, I'm only doing locks): Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut are all in contention, at least two of them WILL make the tourney, and probably three. Pitt and South Florida aren't out totally of it yet (unfortunately).
Big Ten (5 Bids, see Big East explanation): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana. Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota are in the mix. While no one outside of the committee wants to see a 12-loss Big Ten team in the NCAA tournament, I think we'll see at least two.
CUSA (2 Bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis. UCF in contention.
Missouri Valley (2 Bids): Wichita State and Creighton.
Mountain West (2 Bids): UNLV and San Diego State. New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State in contention.
Pac 12 (2 Bids, but 0 Locks): California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado, plus whichever of 8 possible teams that win the conference tournament, in contention. League probably gets two bids, with a maximum of three. Arizona, Cal, and Washington are my best guesses at the possibilities for the NCAA Tournament, in that order. I think we'll see regular season and conference tournament champs get in.
SEC (4 Bids): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Alabama probably gets in. Ole Miss and Arkansas in contention.
WCC (2 Bids): Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. BYU, like Alabama, probably gets in.
So that's 56 bids spoken for. That leaves 12 left, to be fought for by the following 22 teams:
Xavier, UMass, NC State, Miami, Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, UCF, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and BYU.
When you boil it down to this, it's really not that complicated. It's not a weak bubble or a deep bubble, it's a bubble. It's a bunch of teams that, with a good win, a bad loss, or a great showing in their conference tournament, will probably ultimately determine their own fate in the next four weeks.
I think Xavier and UMass play their way out of this, though Xavier is more likely to stay in the mix.
NC State or Miami take one.
Kansas State or Texas take one.
The Big East accounts for three bids. I know most "experts" have West Virginia and UConn as locks but West Virginia has lost 5 of their last 6 and UConn 6 of their last 7, so I can't assume their losing trends won't continue and eliminate them. Cincinnati seems a safe bet since their toughest games are behind them and most people assume they are in the field. I think Seton Hall plays its way off of here, maybe at the benefit of a Pitt jumping in the discussion?
There are two bids available for Big Ten teams, and it wouldn't shock me to see three. I just think this is gross. I think all four of the Big Ten bubble teams will have at least 11 losses, probably even see three of them with 12 losses, but they'll still get a few bids.
Sorry, UCF, they must win the CUSA Tournament.
New Mexico probably gets one bid and, short of winning the conference tournament, Wyoming and Colorado State are not going to make it.
Alabama takes one bid. I don't really believe Ole Miss and Arkansas make it.
BYU takes one bid pretty easily at this point, barring some issues on the road or an early conference tournament loss.
This leaves two bids left. Both bids will go to BCS conference schools. I assume there will be one or two conference tournament upsets in the BCS leagues, and some fringe BCS bubble team (like Arkansas as a perfect example) will make an amazing run and get themselves into the play-in game, or win their conference tournament and get a 13-seed. The Pac 12 situation is a total mess so there's always a possibility of three teams coming from there. The Committee likes to award 8 or 9 Big Ten/East teams, which I cannot in my right mind account for or predict. So I have no idea which 12-loss, 4-games under .500 in conference play, BCS conference team will be rewarded. Seton Hall and pick-your-lousy Big Ten team? I also wouldn't count the NC State-Miami or Kansas State-Texas loser out. Maybe next weekend I'll get around to seeding them.
Honestly, my least favorite part about the Selection Committee, if you couldn't tell, is the last four/eight teams they put in the tournament. I'd rather see a team from a smaller conference that's 2-3 against the RPI top 50 have a shot than the BCS conference team that's 5-9, and I don't think I'm alone. All those BCS conference teams have done is lost their big games. Don't blame the small conference teams for not having the chance to play in big games. Just look at Butler, VCU, George Mason for recent examples of teams that didn't play the toughest schedules but, when they got a chance in the tournament, made special things happen. When was the last time we saw a low-seeded Big Ten team significantly overachieve in the NCAA Tournament? How many Big East 5/6 seeds are the ones that get upset by those 11/12 seeds in the first round? Come on, Committee, let pretzel boy play!
The following conferences could see a regular season conference champion in contention for an at-large bid to the tournament if they don't win the conference tournament (10 Bids): Atlantic Sun, Big West, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, Ohio Valley, Summit, Sun Belt, and WAC.
Here is a list of the teams from the conferences listed above: Belmont, Long Beach State, Cleveland State, Harvard, Iona, Akron, Murray State, Oral Roberts, Middle Tennessee State, and Nevada. Realistically, Murray State is the only near-certainty from this list, though a loss to St. Mary's next week could hurt their chances. The other teams would probably need to win out and play in the conference tournament championship game to be real consideration for an at-large bid. Harvard would have to lose two more games to not win the Ivy League (no conference tournament), which I think would probably necessarily eliminate them from at-large contention, so I think the Ivy League is a one-bid maximum league. Long Beach State, Harvard, Middle Tennessee State, and Oral Roberts all have top 50 RPIs at the moment and, along with Murray State, are the likely candidates to get at-larges if they don't win their conference tournaments: bubble teams should pray they all win their conference tourneys to eliminate any doubt. Belmont, Cleveland State, Iona, Akron, and Nevada don't really have any shots at any at-large consideration, but a lot of the "experts" leave them on their "boards" so I will too. (2 Bids)
Here are my multi-bid leagues and my "locks" for the tourney.
Atlantic 10 (2 Bids): Temple and Saint Louis. Xavier and UMass are in contention for an at-large.
ACC (4 Bids): Duke, North Carolina, Florida State, and Virginia. Miami and NC State in contention, ultimately, one of them probably makes the tournament.
Big XII (4 Bids): Kansas, Missouri, Baylor, Iowa State. Kansas State and Texas in contention (K-State might have locked in but for an epic second half collapse on Saturday at Texas), one of those two should make the tourney.
Big East (5 Bids, don't freak out, plenty of Bubble Candidates here, I'm only doing locks): Syracuse, Marquette, Notre Dame, Louisville, Georgetown. Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut are all in contention, at least two of them WILL make the tourney, and probably three. Pitt and South Florida aren't out totally of it yet (unfortunately).
Big Ten (5 Bids, see Big East explanation): Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Indiana. Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota are in the mix. While no one outside of the committee wants to see a 12-loss Big Ten team in the NCAA tournament, I think we'll see at least two.
CUSA (2 Bids): Southern Mississippi and Memphis. UCF in contention.
Missouri Valley (2 Bids): Wichita State and Creighton.
Mountain West (2 Bids): UNLV and San Diego State. New Mexico, Wyoming, and Colorado State in contention.
Pac 12 (2 Bids, but 0 Locks): California, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, and Colorado, plus whichever of 8 possible teams that win the conference tournament, in contention. League probably gets two bids, with a maximum of three. Arizona, Cal, and Washington are my best guesses at the possibilities for the NCAA Tournament, in that order. I think we'll see regular season and conference tournament champs get in.
SEC (4 Bids): Kentucky, Florida, Mississippi State, and Vanderbilt. Alabama probably gets in. Ole Miss and Arkansas in contention.
WCC (2 Bids): Saint Mary's and Gonzaga. BYU, like Alabama, probably gets in.
So that's 56 bids spoken for. That leaves 12 left, to be fought for by the following 22 teams:
Xavier, UMass, NC State, Miami, Kansas State, Texas, Cincinnati, West Virginia, Seton Hall, Connecticut, Illinois, Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, UCF, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado State, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, and BYU.
When you boil it down to this, it's really not that complicated. It's not a weak bubble or a deep bubble, it's a bubble. It's a bunch of teams that, with a good win, a bad loss, or a great showing in their conference tournament, will probably ultimately determine their own fate in the next four weeks.
I think Xavier and UMass play their way out of this, though Xavier is more likely to stay in the mix.
NC State or Miami take one.
Kansas State or Texas take one.
The Big East accounts for three bids. I know most "experts" have West Virginia and UConn as locks but West Virginia has lost 5 of their last 6 and UConn 6 of their last 7, so I can't assume their losing trends won't continue and eliminate them. Cincinnati seems a safe bet since their toughest games are behind them and most people assume they are in the field. I think Seton Hall plays its way off of here, maybe at the benefit of a Pitt jumping in the discussion?
There are two bids available for Big Ten teams, and it wouldn't shock me to see three. I just think this is gross. I think all four of the Big Ten bubble teams will have at least 11 losses, probably even see three of them with 12 losses, but they'll still get a few bids.
Sorry, UCF, they must win the CUSA Tournament.
New Mexico probably gets one bid and, short of winning the conference tournament, Wyoming and Colorado State are not going to make it.
Alabama takes one bid. I don't really believe Ole Miss and Arkansas make it.
BYU takes one bid pretty easily at this point, barring some issues on the road or an early conference tournament loss.
This leaves two bids left. Both bids will go to BCS conference schools. I assume there will be one or two conference tournament upsets in the BCS leagues, and some fringe BCS bubble team (like Arkansas as a perfect example) will make an amazing run and get themselves into the play-in game, or win their conference tournament and get a 13-seed. The Pac 12 situation is a total mess so there's always a possibility of three teams coming from there. The Committee likes to award 8 or 9 Big Ten/East teams, which I cannot in my right mind account for or predict. So I have no idea which 12-loss, 4-games under .500 in conference play, BCS conference team will be rewarded. Seton Hall and pick-your-lousy Big Ten team? I also wouldn't count the NC State-Miami or Kansas State-Texas loser out. Maybe next weekend I'll get around to seeding them.
Honestly, my least favorite part about the Selection Committee, if you couldn't tell, is the last four/eight teams they put in the tournament. I'd rather see a team from a smaller conference that's 2-3 against the RPI top 50 have a shot than the BCS conference team that's 5-9, and I don't think I'm alone. All those BCS conference teams have done is lost their big games. Don't blame the small conference teams for not having the chance to play in big games. Just look at Butler, VCU, George Mason for recent examples of teams that didn't play the toughest schedules but, when they got a chance in the tournament, made special things happen. When was the last time we saw a low-seeded Big Ten team significantly overachieve in the NCAA Tournament? How many Big East 5/6 seeds are the ones that get upset by those 11/12 seeds in the first round? Come on, Committee, let pretzel boy play!
Sunday, February 5, 2012
A Knack For the Dramatic
BYU pulled out a victory over another not great team last night. They did so in interesting fashion. The game was definitely chippy. Even the fans seemed to be going after each other with their cheers and jeers. There were a lot of fouls called, obviously a lot more on Portland (though, in the refs defense, Portland fouled BYU a lot more). BYU shot more free throws for a road team than anyone else this season, by five.
But still, both teams could easily leave the game feeling like the refs tried to hose them. Adjusting to the officiating of the WCC has definitely been challenging for Coach Rose and his staff. I think that has been as big of an adjustment as anything: venues, opponents, coaching, etc. The officiating is different. BYU's youth (and tempers) don't handle it very well at times, particularly on the road.
The Gonzaga win was big for BYU. It was the first time since Baylor, really, that BYU looked somewhat cohesive on both ends of the floor. They played at a fast pace, but weren't frantic about it. They played solid defense, particularly inside. At Portland, they had a similar game, but at times, the guards went too fast/too frantic. I wonder how this will play out in games at Gonzaga, but first at improved San Francisco. They can't let the crowd or refs or both get to them like they have in two games against St. Mary's, or they will lose that game.
Obviously the three-point shooting has been a concern for BYU. I think the biggest thing missing from BYU's three-point arsenal is the transition three. Stephen Rogers' injury hurts that certainly. But guys aren't even running to the corners in transition like they used to. Most of the threes are coming from the half-court offense, which isn't really BYU's specialty. The other issue I see with it, is guys are trying to shoot their way out of it by continuing to shoot threes in the half-court. Zylstra, Cusick, and Carlino all started going to the hoop last night. Finally. Drive, get fouled, get free throws, get in a rhythm. Let's see if this helps BYU going forward. It certainly helped Cusick last night as he went 2-4 from three, which seems like the best individual performance from three BYU has seen in quite some time.
The other thing that might contribute to BYU's shooting woes of late was the trip to Greece in August. It essentially extended the season about 2 months so guys are playing like it's late March instead of early February (none of the guys on this team have been playing in late March before!). BYU took just a handful of guys on the trip, and they logged a lot of minutes. It seemed like Harrison hit the freshman wall before most freshman do. Zylstra's clearly not playing as well as the season goes along. I think that may be impacting performance at this point in time.
BYU has a well-timed week off. BYU needs to ramp up for a big end of February with road games at surging San Francisco, a Santa Clara team that played BYU reasonably tough in the Marriott Center, and at NCAA Tournament-bound Gonzaga. Those three roadies are sandwiched by home games against the 7th and 8th place teams in the conference that BYU beat by double-digits on the road. 4-1 leaves them in decent position to make the field of 68, 3-2 and it's done, 5-0 and they're in, probably avoiding a play-in game as well. 5-0 and the Cougars would clinch a double-bye in the WCC Tourney. 4-1 and they get a single-bye. 3-2 and who cares...
I went through last night and identified 64 likely teams to make the field. That leaves 4 spots for the Cougars to squeeze in. If the season ended today, I think they would probably be in, but the margin for error is tiny. At this point, they could overcome a loss to Gonzaga, but they'll probably need to advance to the WCC Final to feel comfortable if they do.
But still, both teams could easily leave the game feeling like the refs tried to hose them. Adjusting to the officiating of the WCC has definitely been challenging for Coach Rose and his staff. I think that has been as big of an adjustment as anything: venues, opponents, coaching, etc. The officiating is different. BYU's youth (and tempers) don't handle it very well at times, particularly on the road.
The Gonzaga win was big for BYU. It was the first time since Baylor, really, that BYU looked somewhat cohesive on both ends of the floor. They played at a fast pace, but weren't frantic about it. They played solid defense, particularly inside. At Portland, they had a similar game, but at times, the guards went too fast/too frantic. I wonder how this will play out in games at Gonzaga, but first at improved San Francisco. They can't let the crowd or refs or both get to them like they have in two games against St. Mary's, or they will lose that game.
Obviously the three-point shooting has been a concern for BYU. I think the biggest thing missing from BYU's three-point arsenal is the transition three. Stephen Rogers' injury hurts that certainly. But guys aren't even running to the corners in transition like they used to. Most of the threes are coming from the half-court offense, which isn't really BYU's specialty. The other issue I see with it, is guys are trying to shoot their way out of it by continuing to shoot threes in the half-court. Zylstra, Cusick, and Carlino all started going to the hoop last night. Finally. Drive, get fouled, get free throws, get in a rhythm. Let's see if this helps BYU going forward. It certainly helped Cusick last night as he went 2-4 from three, which seems like the best individual performance from three BYU has seen in quite some time.
The other thing that might contribute to BYU's shooting woes of late was the trip to Greece in August. It essentially extended the season about 2 months so guys are playing like it's late March instead of early February (none of the guys on this team have been playing in late March before!). BYU took just a handful of guys on the trip, and they logged a lot of minutes. It seemed like Harrison hit the freshman wall before most freshman do. Zylstra's clearly not playing as well as the season goes along. I think that may be impacting performance at this point in time.
BYU has a well-timed week off. BYU needs to ramp up for a big end of February with road games at surging San Francisco, a Santa Clara team that played BYU reasonably tough in the Marriott Center, and at NCAA Tournament-bound Gonzaga. Those three roadies are sandwiched by home games against the 7th and 8th place teams in the conference that BYU beat by double-digits on the road. 4-1 leaves them in decent position to make the field of 68, 3-2 and it's done, 5-0 and they're in, probably avoiding a play-in game as well. 5-0 and the Cougars would clinch a double-bye in the WCC Tourney. 4-1 and they get a single-bye. 3-2 and who cares...
I went through last night and identified 64 likely teams to make the field. That leaves 4 spots for the Cougars to squeeze in. If the season ended today, I think they would probably be in, but the margin for error is tiny. At this point, they could overcome a loss to Gonzaga, but they'll probably need to advance to the WCC Final to feel comfortable if they do.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012
BYU in February
I had planned on writing a piece about Dave Rose and his success in February, but Greg Wrubell beat me to it. So, instead of in-depth analysis, I'll just point out a fun fact or two about February in the Dave Rose era.
February is Coach Rose's best month by winning percentage.
November: 84.6%
December: 80.0%
January: 75.0%
February: 85.4%
March: 62.9%
In 6 prior seasons as BYU's head coach, Dave Rose has had a better record in February than January in 5 of those seasons. I don't believe that historical trends have any real impact on the future in sports, but it is important to note that BYU tends to do better in February. Coach Rose seems to be able to get things rolling through February and conference play. Will the change in conference have an impact on that?
Of course, with that said, BYU absolutely better have an improved record in February this season. BYU has 5 games against the bottom half of the league and only 2 games against the top half (both against Gonzaga). So, at worst, BYU should be 5-2, which would still be worse than a 6-2 January, but I think that should be worst case scenario at this point. BYU better be at least 6-1 if it has aspirations for the NCAA Tournament.
Ever since I said this team could give just about anyone a run for their money in the NCAA Tournament, they have lost to Loyola Marymount and been smoked at home by St. Mary's, who is a legitimately good team, but so was Baylor. Given the make-up of this year's squad, the team is better suited for the NIT anyway. It's a young team. There are only 2 seniors. There are no players on the team that will leave to serve missions. Perhaps a run to Madison Square Garden is just the experience that this team will need to prepare for an NCAA Tourney run next year. Regardless, given that BYU is looking at a 10-seed, at best, even if it wins out, is an inevitable first round (or worse, a play-in game) loss better than 2-4 wins in the NIT? BYU does not have what it takes to beat a top 25 team at a neutral site this season, and playing a 5, 6, or 7-seed, that's essentially what BYU would be getting. That is just my opinion. Most of the teams in the NIT are pretty good teams, or at least provide quality competition, but BYU has a chance to advance while still getting a feel for the tournament environment.
What do you guys say? Would you rather see BYU lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament or go to the Final Four of the NIT?
February is Coach Rose's best month by winning percentage.
November: 84.6%
December: 80.0%
January: 75.0%
February: 85.4%
March: 62.9%
In 6 prior seasons as BYU's head coach, Dave Rose has had a better record in February than January in 5 of those seasons. I don't believe that historical trends have any real impact on the future in sports, but it is important to note that BYU tends to do better in February. Coach Rose seems to be able to get things rolling through February and conference play. Will the change in conference have an impact on that?
Of course, with that said, BYU absolutely better have an improved record in February this season. BYU has 5 games against the bottom half of the league and only 2 games against the top half (both against Gonzaga). So, at worst, BYU should be 5-2, which would still be worse than a 6-2 January, but I think that should be worst case scenario at this point. BYU better be at least 6-1 if it has aspirations for the NCAA Tournament.
Ever since I said this team could give just about anyone a run for their money in the NCAA Tournament, they have lost to Loyola Marymount and been smoked at home by St. Mary's, who is a legitimately good team, but so was Baylor. Given the make-up of this year's squad, the team is better suited for the NIT anyway. It's a young team. There are only 2 seniors. There are no players on the team that will leave to serve missions. Perhaps a run to Madison Square Garden is just the experience that this team will need to prepare for an NCAA Tourney run next year. Regardless, given that BYU is looking at a 10-seed, at best, even if it wins out, is an inevitable first round (or worse, a play-in game) loss better than 2-4 wins in the NIT? BYU does not have what it takes to beat a top 25 team at a neutral site this season, and playing a 5, 6, or 7-seed, that's essentially what BYU would be getting. That is just my opinion. Most of the teams in the NIT are pretty good teams, or at least provide quality competition, but BYU has a chance to advance while still getting a feel for the tournament environment.
What do you guys say? Would you rather see BYU lose in the first round of the NCAA Tournament or go to the Final Four of the NIT?
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)