New Year's Day predictions (Happy New Year!)

Auburn played 5 teams with good spread offenses: they gave up 24, 30, 44, 21, and 31 while going 2-3 in those games. Northwestern only played 2 teams similar to Auburn's run and shoot type O, but went 2-0 (though neither of those teams is as good as Auburn). I just like Northwestern, my first D-I game was a Northwestern game back in the mid-90's with Darnell Autry. What can I say? I like my Wildcats. 38-31, Northwestern.

LSU has 3 losses this season: by 10 to Florida, by 9 to Alabama where an official blew a call that allowed a 6-point lead to grow to 9, and by 2 at Ole Miss on Senior Day. Penn State played two ranked teams and lost to both of them. I just can't take Penn State seriously until they play a non-conference road game (or at least a bowl eligible BCS conference team). I look at that schedule and say: BYU and Utah both played tougher schedules. Of BYU's 13 opponents, 4 of them will be in the top 25 at the end of the season. Utah will have 3. LSU is more battle tested and they are better anyway. Both teams sport similarly stingy defenses. It's the multiple athletes on LSU's O that will make the difference, as they can attack from all angles. If Crowton doesn't call too risky of an offensive game, they should be able to move the ball: but Crowton has screwed the pooch before...LSU 24, Penn State 13.

Florida State is not good enough to be playing in the Gator Bowl. I know it's a nice tribute to Bobby Bowden, but they aren't well enough coached to pull this one out. Talent-wise, I give the Seminoles the edge, but when you play a team like West Virginia, it's all about discipline. I don't think they have it. I don't think their D is good enough to contain West Virginia. The 3-3-5 that West Virginia sports is very confusing to read, especially when they have had a month to put in some new looks. I like Bill Stewart to outcoach Bowden in his farewell. I hate to give the Big East props, but they have a few other games to lose still. Mountaineers 45, Bowden 31 (Bobby Bowden, who built a legacy on D, plays a shootout in his final game).

I think Oregon's speed in space (if they can get there) will cause some matchup issues for Ohio State's LBs. If the Buckeyes D-line, which has been great this year, can wreak havoc in the backfield, the Buckeyes might finally get a BCS win. I like Chip Kelly. I think he's a great coach. I think he will find ways to slow down the defensive front. He'll get the matchups he wants: speedy slot receivers against the talented, big, but slower OLBs from Ohio State. Ohio State's offense, to me, has been too schizophrenic this year to be taken seriously. The Buckeyes are a power running, play-action bomb offense without a power back and with a mobile, strong-armed but non-pocket passing QB. Great personnel, just not a great fit, and Tressel hasn't figured out how to master it. Barring a rainy day, I think Ohio State walks away empty-handed again. Oregon 37, Ohio State 28.

Tebow's last game. HE will be motivated. His team might not be. He will find a way to motivate the troops, however, to go out a winner. I hope he goes out a winner. I can say that now, because he isn't playing in the National Championship game! Had that been the case...The Cincinnati players definitely want to show Brian Kelly he was an idiot to leave them, but Florida's struggles have been with big, strong, physical rushing attacks: Tennessee, South Carolina, and Alabama. The spread offense throw it all over the place, run it wide with speedy slot receiver teams they have played: 41-7 at Kentucky, 13-3 at LSU, struggled with Arkansas 23-20, 29-19 at Mississippi State, and 37-10 against Florida State. I think Cincy comes out strong early, surprises Florida a bit with their speed on O, but they don't have enough smoke and mirrors in their depleted coaching staff's scheme to keep it up for 4 quarters. The Tebows 34, the Pikes 21. Tebow rushes and passes for 150 apiece.

MWC has another good day

Air Force laid a beatdown on another respectable opponent, making that 4-0 on the bowl season. The MWC has had its 5th place team beat the 3rd best WAC team with Wyoming over Fresno State in OT, its 4th place team demolish the 2nd place Conference USA team with Air Force dropping 47 on Houston and intercepting Case Keenum SIX TIMES, its 3rd place team wacked Pac 10 6th place finisher Cal with Utah's freshman QB leading the way, and its 2nd place team showed the Pac 10 a thing or two about stopping Jacquizz Rodgers and 2nd place Pac 10 finisher Oregon State as BYU dominated for about 50 of the 60 minutes. 3 of the 4 teams the MWC defeated in bowl games was ranked in the top 15 at some point this season. Not bad.

In the mean time, the Pac 10 dropped yet another game. At least this one was respectable.

How about the Naval Academy? Nice job handling Mizzou: maybe the Tigers ought to join the Big Ten so they can learn what it takes to stop the run. My thoughts on why Air Force and Navy have been so successful these past few years while Army has continued to struggle: every play, 11 guys hit 11 guys. Nobody takes a down off and no defender is left untouched on any given play. They may be smaller, but they are tougher, they keep coming at you, and they hit you EVERY PLAY. Army has lost that toughness as they adopted a pro-style O for a few years there. They are back to the triple option again and had some success this season, maybe next year they'll get over the hump as that attitude comes back.

I was 4-1 on my picks today, with my lone miss being Tennessee. Big oops on that one. The underdogs continue to impress, however, with a 3-2 record today, taking the overall record to 11-9. Tomorrow I'm predicting a 2-3 finish for the underdogs. I think Northwestern upsets Auburn (the Big Ten always wins ONE against the SEC) and LSU beats Penn State (I can't believe LSU is the dog in this game...), but West Virginia handles the Florida State Bobbies, Oregon holds serve against a physical Ohio State team, and Florida does what it was supposed to do all season.

Mike Leach

If you've read or heard much of anything the past two days, you know, Mike Leach, the most successful coach in Texas Tech history, was fired yesterday. I'm not going to debate the merits of the firing. The administration decided to fire him: a few players are happy about it, a few aren't, the administration is happy about it, most fans aren't. I'm here to discuss what's next for Texas Tech football and for Mike Leach.

Texas Tech:
Ruin is in the forecast. They may get off without having to pay Mike Leach much, but their program will be in shambles for the foreseeable future. Mike Leach made this program what it is. There are no coaches out there that would go to Texas Tech who can sustain what Mike Leach has done. I have heard three names: Ruffin McNeil (current defensive coordinator and interim coach), Tommy Tuberville (former Auburn head coach) and Kevin Sumlin (head coach at Houston). McNeil cannot succeed at Tech. The D hasn't been great under him anyway, and how is he going to manage an offense? Sumlin could, but I think he has a better chance of taking Houston to a BCS game than he does at Tech...patience will pay off for him: he will eventually get a shot at a traditional power, and when he does, he'll have success and make the big bucks. Tuberville's SEC mindset might help on defense, but Tech has made it's living on offense, and in the Big 12, they will have to continue that. He could be a breath of fresh air, but coming to the interview, he might smell a little too much "fresh" air in Lubbock...

In reality, there aren't a lot of other quality coaches out there that would consider a move to Texas Tech. Certainly the Big Four from the non-BCS that are often mentioned wouldn't consider it for a second: Patterson at TCU, Petersen at Boise State, Whittingham at Utah, and Mendenhall at BYU. Their programs are all at a level equal to, if not above, Texas Tech right now.

Mike Leach:
I think he'll make a return to the University of Kentucky, assuming Rich Brooks does retire. Leach helped to usher in the most successful era in Kentucky football history. He coached Tim Couch in 1997 and 1998. Leach's offenses broke all kinds of school records in his two years. If he pulls out 7 or 8 wins next year, he may get a shot at a job at one of the bigger schools that will inevitably be hiring new coaches next year. Colorado. Illinois. Maryland. Michigan. Arizona State. Those are 5 BCS schools that may be hiring after next year, if they have another disappointing season. Colorado and Illinois will definitely have disappointing seasons...

The Pac ONE

This has got to be embarrassing for the Pac 10. USC and UCLA are the only two teams that won their bowl games and both of them played vastly inferior teams from vastly "inferior" conferences. Oregon State, who was one play away from the Rose Bowl, got pummeled by a non-BCS school in their bowl game. Cal, who also had Rose Bowl aspirations and was once ranked in the top 10, got manhandled by a non-BCS school. Arizona, who was also one play away from the Rose Bowl, was dominated for 60 minutes by a Big 12 North school that wasn't even ranked with one week left in the season. At one point IN THE FOURTH QUARTER, Nebraska had one fewer point than Arizona had yards (33 points to 34 yards).

They now need both Oregon and Stanford to win to get above .500. Oregon is a favorite but playing a physical Ohio State team. Stanford is an underdog and will be playing the best rush defense they have seen all season in Oklahoma.

It could be worse: they could be the ACC which needs Va Tech to beat Tennessee, Florida State to beat West Virginia, and Georgia Tech to beat Iowa to get over .500 (oh, and they were two teams short of filling their bowl tie-ins...).

Review of the underdog battle: the underdogs are 8-7 to this point.

Final (maybe) Expansion Thoughts

First off, I think the Pac 10 would have expanded to 12 a while ago if they thought there were two teams in the Pacific region that they could add.

First a brief look at previous expansions of the Pac 10:
1959: California, Stanford, UCLA, USC, and Washington formed a 5-team conference
1962: Washington State gets added for a 6-team conference
1964: add the Oregon schools to get the Pac 8
1978: add the Arizona schools to get the Pac 10
Safe to say the next expansion, as with the last two, will be two geographical equivalents, most likely to be rivals: possible combos include CSU, Colorado; BYU, Utah; Utah, Utah State; UNLV, Nevada

Academics: all schools in the Pac 10 receive over $40 million in federal grants for research. However, not all of the schools are highly rated, as the Pac 10 would have us believe. The University of Utah, for example, is in that same $40M club but ranks ahead of Arizona State, Oregon State, Oregon, and Washington State. The only other western Division I-A schools that fall into this $40M club are: Colorado State, Colorado, Idaho, Hawaii, UNLV, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah State. Hawaii, Nevada, and CSU are the only 3 schools in that list that have won a conference championship in the last decade in football. UNLV and Nevada are the only schools that have won a basketball conference championship in the past 5 years. Athletically, the good academic schools in the west fall a little short of Pac 10 standards.

On a side note: most of BYU's research programs are privately-funded, not federally funded, but I imagine they have a budget of well over $40M...either way, they are not a part of this club.

Comparing the post-graduate programs of the two teams involved in the most recent Pac 10 expansion (Arizona State and Arizona) with Utah and BYU, who I deem to be the most likely teams in the case of expansion:
Business: BYU tied with Arizona State, Arizona and Utah both unranked
Education: Arizona State, Utah and Arizona tied, BYU fourth
Engineering: Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, BYU unranked
Law: BYU, Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State
Medical: ASU and BYU do not have medical programs, Utah, Arizona unranked

Facts about the academic rankings:
ASU has the highest average ranking at 38th (does not have medical program), and places 1st of the 4 schools in three out of five categories
Arizona has an average ranking of 55 (but is unranked in 2 of the 5, which would lower their average...), but is not the best of the group in any of the programs
Utah and BYU share a similar average around 57.5 (Utah unranked in Business, BYU unranked in Engineering, and BYU lacks a medical program), BYU places first twice, Utah once.

Utah and BYU are not far behind, if at all, in academics when it comes to the most recently added Pac 10 teams.

Now, the Pac 10 is the conference of champions as well, so how do BYU and Utah compare when it comes to national championships:

BYU has at least 13 NCAA team championships that I could find record of (this does not include the 5 or 6 NCAA titles the dance team has won...). Utah has 21 that I was able to find in their records (this does not include any gymnastics individual national champions, of which they have a fairly hefty amount, only team championships).

Oregon State and Washington State have 3 each. Washington has 8. Oregon has 16. Arizona has 17. Arizona State has 22. California has 28. UCLA, USC, and Stanford are all up around or above 100 total NCAA championships. So BYU has more NCAA championships than 3 of the 10 schools in the conference of champions. Utah is also better than at least half of the Pac 10. They have done all of this WITHOUT BCS money!

Academically, there are better options in the region than BYU, but not [m]any better than Utah. Athletically, there isn't any competition from the schools that qualify academically. The no play on Sunday issue is a major obstacle with BYU. Perhaps that is why the Pac 10 has not expanded: the two most worthy candidates should be taken as a pair, but one of them causes too much of a headache. The Pac 10 will not be the first conference to expand because they will only do so when "forced" to...

Other facts:
Enrollment at Pac 10 schools is between 15,000 and 64,000. BYU has 34,000 and Utah has 28,000.
Football stadiums in the Pac 10 hold between 40,000 and 94,000. BYU's capacity is 64,000 and Utah has a capacity 45,000. USC and UCLA are the only Pac 10 teams that average a higher attendance than BYU. Utah averages a higher attendance than Oregon State, Stanford, and Washington State. So attendance-wise, BYU would be in 3rd place in the Pac 10, and Utah would be 8th.
Basketball stadiums in the Pac 10 hold between 7,000 and 14,500. BYU's holds 22,000 and Utah's holds 15,000. In basketball, only Arizona (13,681) averages a higher attendance than BYU (13,383) or Utah (9,913). I'm going to go out on a limb and say that BYU would make up that 300 person/game difference if their conference schedule included UCLA, Arizona, Washington, etc. instead of TCU, Air Force, Colorado State, so they would likely have the highest attendance in the Pac 10 for basketball.
There are 8 public schools and 2 private, non-sectarian schools in the Pac 10. BYU is private, sectarian and Utah is public.

This week's bowl games

The bowls, to this point, have been higher scoring affairs than one might have anticipated going into it, I will try to adjust my picks accordingly...

A&M-Georgia: A&M is happy to be here. Georgia had a disappointing season. So far, that has spelled disaster in the bowls. A&M 38, Georgia 28.

Temple-UCLA: Temple is bowling for the first time in the BCS era. UCLA is another lackluster 6-6: when will they finally get over the hump? The underdog non-BCS schools have come to play this postseason, particularly against the BCS teams they have had a chance to face, with the exception of UCF. Temple 31, UCLA 17.

Miami-Wisconsin: the Big Ten often struggles in bowl games, but Miami has struggled against good defenses all season (granted Wisconsin doesn't have a GREAT pass defense, they just benefit from playing in a run-heavy conference). Wisconsin can play keep away with their ground game and that will get Jacory Harris trying to rush things, get anxious, and play without patience. Sconsin 38, Miami 20.

Bowling Green-Idaho: Vandals back in a bowl game. Bowling Green in one again. Excitement factor has to go to Idaho. BGSU is obviously the better team, as Idaho struggled/lost against every bowl team that it played: 1-3 against bowl-bound opponents (with the lone win over another MAC team, Northern Illinois). They also lost to Washington and Utah State, two improving, but still not very good, teams. With the game being in their home state and with some time to prepare and regroup after a lackluster finish: Idaho 34, Bowling Green 28.

Arizona-Nebraska: both of these teams' bowl prospects went up in the final 3 weeks of the season, I don't think either of them really belongs in a bowl as prestigious as the Holiday Bowl, but such is life. Nebraska has a great defense with a crummy offense. Arizona has a decent offense with a decent defense. Both teams are motivated. Both conferences appear to be having a down year. Give the edge to the Conference of Champions (and to the team that can occasionally score TDs): Arizona 24, Nebraska 15.

Update on the underdogs

To this point in the bowl season, the underdogs have sported a 6-3 record in bowl games, with 4 double-digit wins. Of the 3 losses, Boston College and UCF did not cover the spread but North Carolina did. Kentucky was down 1 point heading into the 4th quarter (as a 7.5-point underdog). All in all, I'd say the underdogs are faring quite well thus far. The MWC is 3-0 to this point, as the underdog in all 3 of their games to this point. Air Force plays as a 7-point dog on Thursday against Houston. TCU is the only MWC team to be favored in their game, currently listed as a 4-point favorite over Boise State with 2 weeks to go before game-time.

Go Dogs and Frogs. Continue to make this an exciting bowl season!

Congrats to the 2 idiots

Who voted for BYU to win big. I wouldn't say I was totally surprised, but I didn't think it would be that dominating a performance in all aspects of the game: offense, defense, and punting...so maybe the wind helped a little bit with the last one.

Speed was contained. Granted, it was 2 fast players and not a team full of speed. Oregon State's secondary had coverage issues. The second level had tackling issues. The D-line had leverage issues.

I think early on, Oregon State had convinced themselves they wanted to be there, but after the second consecutive 6-yard punt, and BYU capitalizing on it, I think any motivation they had left was gone. It was cold, it was windy: they could have stayed in Corvallis if they wanted that weather. Oregon State played some tough teams and played them tough, but they got manhandled by a superior team tonight. It wasn't a fluke. It wasn't luck. They just got dominated and couldn't fight back DURING play and had to resort to pushing and shoving matches AFTER the play. Bad news: they lost those shoving matches too!

I expect Utah would respond in kind tonight, maybe not quite as dominating a performance, but still a win; if only because they can't let their rival outdo them AGAIN this season: if they were upset by their destination and bowl and loss to finish the season, BYU's big win will provide the necessary motivation for them to step up and play big. Apparently, most of you voters agree that Utah will run away with it. I'm not sleeping on Cal's rushing attack, but I think the teams are pretty even and Utah can play with that "chip on their shoulder" mentality that suits them so well. Unless Cal rushes for 200+, they'll lose by 10-14 points. I think the 8 defensive seniors want to go out on a high note and have the ability to play in a way to make that happen. They are healthy on the DL again with Eliapo, and that should be enough to contain Vereen somewhat and hold Cal to under 200 yards, which means victory for the Utes. Utah 28, Cal 17. If they can't contain Vereen, however, it's going to be a long day for the Ute defense and a very short day for the Ute offense (with a lot of 3 and outs).

Does Speed Kill?

BYU-Oregon State comes up tomorrow night. It should be fun, one way or another. Either Oregon State is going to put up a lot of points and that will be fun to watch, or it will be a close game that comes down to the wire. Sorry, Cougar fans: I don't see a blowout victory going your way.

You hear a lot about BYU struggling against teams with speed. My question is: who doesn't struggle with speed? Texas struggled with Oklahoma, even on a year where Texas is playing for the National Championship and OU is 7-5. Everybody struggled against Florida, Alabama, and TCU. Nobody managed to beat Oregon State by more than 10. Even Florida State, at 6-6, lost only two games (to Florida and Clemson) by more than a touchdown. Speed kills everybody, not just BYU. BYU's speed struggles come down to 2 things: keeping contain on running plays and DBs jumping Max Hall's telegraphed passes. Florida State and TCU consistently got to the edge on running plays: the OLBs need to hold contain. That is easier said than done against Oregon State: they crack block a lot with the WRs, forcing the DEs and OLBs inside and allowing the 'Quizz to get outside and go against a DB in space. As far as Max Hall goes: Oregon State is not a good secondary and their "star" CB is out for the game. So, at worst, this game will look more like the Florida State debacle (54-28) than the TCU massacre (38-7).

Speed is neutralized in the red zone, where the space tightens up. Oregon State has had to settle for a lot of field goals (3 against Cincy and USC, 4 against Oregon which ultimately cost them all 3 of those games): 33% of their red zone scores are field goals. BYU's D has forced a lot of field goals which won them games (2 against Oklahoma and 5 against Utah): 31% of scores in the red zone against them are field goals. If Oregon State has to attempt 3 or more field goals, they are in trouble. On the flip side, Oregon State has one of the worst red zone defenses in the country: 87% of times their opponent enters the red zone, they score (33 out of 38). Even worse than that, 88% of the scores given up are TDs. BYU scores at a clip of 88% in the red zone, with 88% of the scores being TDs. I think it's safe to say with Oregon State's D and BYU's O, if BYU moves the ball into the red zone, they will be scoring touchdowns.

One would think that Big Play potential clearly goes to Oregon State because of the speed of the Rogers brothers. However, BYU has nearly twice as many TDs of 20+ yards than Oregon State (12 to 7). The other factor that helps BYU on the big play side is the fact that they are a passing offense: it is easier for a passing play to break big than a running play. A receiver catches the ball further down field to start with, plus a missed tackle is amplified because there are fewer defenders to make up for it. If a DL or OLB misses the 'Quizz at the point of attack, there are still 10 other players to prevent it from becoming a big play. If Oregon State's backup CB blows a coverage or misses a tackle, he might have one safety to help him recover (it's also possible that he is the last line of defense). However, let's be honest about the situation: BYU is more of a methodical offensive attack and Oregon State is more of an explosive offensive attack. Both are difficult to stop: both teams average more than 32 points/game.

Bowl games so often come down to motivation. Wyoming was obviously motivated on Saturday where Fresno State was not so much so: result was a double OT thriller won by Wyoming. Last year, Arizona was motivated against BYU, but the flip was not true. The better team does not always win. So the question becomes: who is motivated this particular game? Both teams may not be exactly excited to play here because they had bigger aspirations earlier in the season. But both teams also recognize they have a quality opponent, where it could have been much worse! BYU has more seniors in leadership positions wanting to go out on a good note.

Truthfully, if BYU can't win (or at the very least compete in) this game, it's probably a fairly bad sign for the program. I really think it comes down to field goals: who is kicking them and who isn't? I think BYU isn't and Oregon State is. BYU 35, Oregon State 30. My secondary score is Oregon State 42, BYU 21...

I am interested to see what kind of stops BYU pulls out. Will we see some wildcat with Riley Nelson? Reverses? Halfback passes? Intention to deceive penalties? If Bronco's 2009 mantra of having fun holds true, they should have SOME surprises in store for the Beavers. I have been impressed this year with some of the trick plays we've seen. We shall see about this game: I'd hate the Royal Blue Clad Cougars to fall flat again in the Vegas Bowl.

First Weekend of Bowls

You can bet Wyoming watched the film from the Fresno State vs. Boise State game. Boise State was scoring at will against the Fresno State D. Fresno State's O was clicking. They can figure out how they might go about attacking Fresno and also figure out what makes the Bulldogs go. The answer is easy: Ryan Matthews. The guy is an amazing back. Speed, power, agility, burst: you name it, he's got it.
Wyoming's O seemed to figure things out down the stretch. They just needed to get a little healthier and maybe add a little depth with their younger players, particularly at the wide receiver position where things were a little shaky (nothing after David Leonard really on the outside and even he had a tough time breaking big plays and getting into the end zone). I think Fresno State's D is the difference in this game: if they can shut down Wyoming's passing game (which shouldn't be hard), they should win. Wyoming needs to try to stay balanced if they want to win. They should be able to move the ball on the ground, but they need some production out of the passing game to keep the D honest. Fresno State 31, Wyoming 17.

UCF gets a home game against Rutgers. Rutgers should run away with this one, but UCF plays up in games played in Central Florida. They nearly beat South Florida last year and they did take Houston down this year. The one thing UCF does well is stop the run. Really, offensively, they don't have the potential to march down the field: they need the big play. Rutgers has been unspectacular offensively. Defensively, they were so bad on run defense that they ended up with the best pass defense in the Big East: everybody just ran on them all the time. They are undersized up front. Unfortunately for UCF, their O-line isn't exactly full of 300 pounders. I don't expect a whole lot offense, mostly because of bad offense...first one to 20 wins: Rutgers 20, UCF 13.

Congrats to Middle Tennessee State on getting a bid from the Sun Belt. Sorry you have to play a Southern Mississippi team that is upset with how their season went. They have a great offense and a solid coaching staff. Middle Tennesse is a solid team, for a Sun Belt team. But there is a huge difference between C-USA and Sun Belt. Congrats to MTSU, but I think you're overmatched here. Southern Miss sports a very balanced offense combined with a very stout run defense. I watched a little bit of MTSU this year: they looked very methodical, very grind it out and march down the field type of O. You can do that in the Sun Belt against inferior opponents, but can they do it when it counts, on the big stage, against a quality opponent? I think this will be fairly close for a time but USM pulls away: Southern Miss 34, MTSU 20.

As we head into bowl season...

A lot of people are involved in doing Bowl Pick'ems or Bowl Mania or whatever. Just a thought for those of you involved: don't put so much stock into what happened in November when deciding what might happen in late December or early January.

Some teams faltered down the stretch. Doesn't mean their bowl game is lost. They've had a chance to regroup and fix their problems. Sometimes losing 3 or 4 straight to end the season is a result of a few things: wearing down, a mentally crushing defeat, better opponents that are also more familiar with your style, etc.. Teams have had a chance to rest, put the past behind them, and most are playing a team they haven't played in quite some time. The team coming in on a losing streak isn't necessarily any worse off than one coming in on a winning streak. Momentum doesn't carry over a month, especially considering no one is playing in games, plus players have had finals and holidays in the interim. Confidence may carry over, but the more confident team doesn't always win: see BYU-Florida State earlier this season...

A team that was not good at something during the season may prove to be quite good at it in their bowl game, or a team that was good at something may not be good at it during the bowl game. Teams and coaches have a lot of time to correct problems, to game-plan for a specific player or style, and to put in new schemes that are different from what they did during the season. There is a lot of time (15 practices to be precise: that's essentially 3+ weeks of preparation) between the season and the bowl game to implement a variety of different things from schemes to depth to personnel. Also, the things that a team was successful at during the season might get overlooked at this time and they may not be as sharp in their bowl game as a result. Perhaps an unforeseen change in their opponent's scheme causes issues that the coaching staff was not anticipating. It happens.

Anyway, just a couple of tips for those of you gambling on the post-season...

P.S. I also read somewhere fairly recently that the underdog wins over half of the bowl games, something else to keep in mind. I will actually track that this year to see if that is the case.

Quick, final expansion thought

If the BCS was smart (by BCS I mean the big 5 conferences), expansion would occur as follows:

Big Ten takes a Big East team, probably must be either Pitt, Cincy, or West Virginia. The Big East has to replace a team that helps them get a BCS bid with a team that hurts them in their quest (East Carolina or Southern Mississippi are probably the ONLY non-BCS possibilities, unless they can steal Boston College back from the ACC: unlikely).
Pac 10 adds two of the following 4 teams: Boise State, Utah, BYU, and TCU. The MWC consolidates, but having only two of those teams left in the conference severely limits their squawking about being deserving of a BCS bid.

The Big East will not qualify for an auto-bid the next time the BCS gurus get together and discuss automatic qualifying. The MWC will not qualify for an auto-bid either. There are currently 65 BCS teams that share in the BCS pie. If the MWC ends up getting an automatic bid next cycle, that number jumps to 74 (assuming the Big East still qualifies: there is no rule about how many conferences can qualify so there can be 7), or 75 if the MWC adds Boise State. Under the format described above, that number would drop to 60, 12 teams in 5 BCS conferences. Plus, the Big Ten and Pac 10 would have conference championship games which gives them more money. More money and fewer teams to share it with. The ONLY issue is: the two teams from the MWC/WAC that the Pac 10 doesn't take, now have a better chance of going undefeated and spoiling the party...

My favorite part about that scenario: it starts to look like a playoff as the two best teams in each of 5 regions square off for a shot at the BCS. Just take the top 4 teams AFTER the conference championships for a little playoff (it's only ONE extra game). Just imagine the possibilities...

Conference Expansion Thoughts

Hey all, sorry for the absence, I've been busy with a newborn in the house!

So the Big Ten wants to expand. There are a lot of theories out there about whom they should add. My thought is, when the Big Ten says they want to expand they are saying: Notre Dame, are you interested? My short list, if I were in charge of the committee evaluating these options: Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Missouri, and Arkansas.

Notre Dame pros: Huge fan base. Located in the middle of Big Ten country. Already play most of the Big Ten teams. High academic standards. Lots of money. Talented players. Tradition. Half-decent basketball team. Does decent in most sports.
Cons: unwilling to give up Independent status. Currently have a TV contract with NBC (which may not last long with the sale of NBC to Comcast...). Win or lose, they dominate the headlines, which overshadows other teams in the conference. Members of the Big East in every other sport. They haven't really been relevant in a few years.
Thoughts: if Notre Dame would go for it, this is a done deal. What more could you want in a 12th team? Also, I think ND has to realize this is their last chance because once the Big Ten goes to 12, there is no room for Notre Dame. However, the arrogance of the Fighting Irish probably leads them to believe they don't need the Big Ten to get back to the big stage: they just need Brian Kelly. I think they are wrong on both accounts: they need the Big Ten and Brian Kelly is not the answer they were hoping for.

Pittsburgh pros: natural rival for Penn State (who really lacks ANY true rival in the conference). Tradition of success. Big Ten type of town (blue collar). Pretty good basketball team.
Cons: lack of prolonged success. Academics. Success in most other sports.
Thoughts: if Notre Dame doesn't want in, regionally, this is your best and safest bet and the highest quality football/hoops combo.

Arkansas pros: SEC team. Plays in the SEC. Won't win the SEC West in the foreseeable future. SEC speed.
Cons: academics. Lack of interest on their part in joining the Big Ten.
Thoughts: this would be the heist of the century. The Big Ten is always getting beaten up about how the SEC rocks their world, SEC this, SEC that. Get one of their members to come your way? That would be an awesome comeback. "If you are so much better than us, why did one of your consistently bowl eligible teams leave you for us?" For this exact reason, I think taking Kentucky would even be better than grabbing an also-ran out of the Big East like the Cuse or Rutgers.

Missouri pros: Big 12 and respected football team. Pat Forde is an alum and maybe he'd stop trashing the Big Ten so much. Good basketball, decent at other sports too. Academics aren't bad. Add another state to the conference's recruiting bases.
Cons: lack consistent success, i.e. top 25 appearances. Academics aren't great. No world class teams in its programs. Not a big winning tradition.
Thoughts: better to steal a Big 12 team than a Big East one. They are a better program than ANY of the options in the Big East besides Pitt and Cincy (maybe).

The other question then becomes: IF the Big Ten expands, does the Pac 10 do it as well? I think that's a pretty long way off. If there were two OBVIOUS picks, I think the Pac 10 would have announced it as well. BYU and Utah seem obvious, but let's look at it from the Pac 10 perspective:

BYU doesn't have quite the academics you are looking for, particularly the research and graduate programs. The Pac 10 would have to readjust a lot of their other sports' schedules because BYU does not play on Sundays. They do bring the fan base and money. They do bring the stadium size and ability to fill it. They win a lot of championships in a variety of sports.

Utah has a small football stadium and has only truly sold out 8 games in the past 5 years. Basketball alternates between the NCAAs and the CBI. They do bring a bigger TV market but not a large fan base with it, albeit a very enthusiastic small fan base. Academics are definitely there for the medical research side, but other graduate programs are somewhat lacking. They bring an immediately credible women's gymnastics team.

They are a nice rivalry pair, however, which they currently have the best set-up for in the country: Washington schools, Oregon schools, Cal-Stanford, USC-UCLA, and the Arizona schools; that is the PERFECT conference set-up. Certainly there is no other pair like BYU-Utah in the region, but there are certainly issues with taking this pair that may be too big for the Pac 10 to make the jump. Maybe after a few years with BCS money, the obstacles can be overcome: of course, the same could be said for other potential pairs. Other potential pairs: SDSU and Fresno, UNLV and Nevada, Colorado and CSU...OK, I'm reaching a bit with that last one...

A Computer Rankings of the Bowls

There are a lot of people ranking the quality of the bowls. Based on an average of each bowl's pair, using the Sagarin computer ranking, here is what the top 10 bowl games are:
Rank; Bowl; Teams; Sagarin average
1; National Championship; Alabama vs. Texas; 2
2; Sugar Bowl; Florida vs. Cincinnati; 4
3; Fiesta Bowl; TCU vs. Boise State; 6
4; Rose Bowl; Oregon vs. Ohio State; 8.5
5; Orange Bowl; Iowa vs. Georgia Tech; 14
Not surprising that the top 5 games in a computer ranking are the BCS games, it appears they got something right at least (i.e. setting up a computer formula that agrees with them).
6; Capital One Bowl; LSU vs. Penn State; 15
7; Chick-Fil-A Bowl; Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee; 16.5
8; Holiday Bowl; Arizona vs. Nebraska; 19
9; Sun Bowl; Oklahoma vs. Stanford; 20
10; Maaco/Las Vegas; BYU vs. Oregon State; 22

I may not entirely agree with it, but the 10 is pretty solid. My top 10 would be (putting aside my own personal bias and just from a college football perspective):
1 NC, Alabama vs. Texas (I wish this was Bama-TCU, but as it is, it's obviously the biggest/best bowl game of the year)
2 Fiesta, Boise State vs. TCU (this game has the second best team in college football against a team that dominated the Pac 10 champion)
3 Sugar, Florida vs. Cincy (Tebow's last collegiate game has intrigue but Cincy does not belong on the same field with Florida: not saying they can't or won't win, just saying)
4 Rose, Oregon vs. Ohio State (two legitimate top 10 teams, bottom of the top 10 mind you, but better than G Tech and Iowa)
5 Capital One, LSU vs. Penn State (Big Ten tends to struggle in bowl games, Joe Pa has a chance to make a statement for his conference)
6 Orange, Iowa vs. Georgia Tech (the ACC stinks on ice in BCS bowls, they are going against a second place team from the other conference that stinks in BCS games: at least one of them gets to win this one)
7 Las Vegas, BYU vs. Oregon State (only other bowl involving two top 20 teams: winningest QB at BYU, which has produced several Hall of Fame QBs vs. winningest coach in Oregon State history)
8 Sun, Oklahoma vs. Stanford (if for no other reason than watching the unstoppable object Toby Gerhart against the stingy Oklahoma run defense, this game is a must see)
9 Holiday, Arizona vs. Nebraska (two great defenses, one not-so-horrible offense and a team with a very experienced field goal kicker)
With number 10 I'm going out on a limb a bit:
Texas Bowl, Missouri vs. Navy (one of the most dynamic attacks in college football against one of the most one-dimensional attacks, Navy played at Big Ten champion Ohio State and played them to a virtual draw, Missouri went 0-3 against teams better than Navy)

The One That I Can't Figure

So here is the order of picks for the BCS games:

National Championship:
Alabama
Texas

Rose Bowl gets Ohio State and Oregon (Big and Pac 10 champs)
Orange Bowl gets Georgia Tech (ACC champ)

Sugar Bowl gets first replacement pick:
Florida

Fiesta Bowl gets second replacement pick:
TCU

Orange Bowl selects first at-large non-replacement pick:
Iowa

Fiesta Bowl selects second at-large non-replacement pick:
Boise State

The Big East champion, which has an automatic berth, must be selected, so the Sugar Bowl takes Cincinnati with the final selection.

The one pick that I can't figure, the one pick that messes everything up is Iowa being selected by the Orange Bowl. The Big East champion has formerly had ties with the Orange Bowl (from 1998-2005). The Big Ten has never had ties with the Orange Bowl. They had a chance to select the number 3 team in the country, an undefeated Big East conference champion. They picked a second place, 2-loss, lowest-ranked in the BCS standings playing in a BCS game Iowa. In the last 30 years, only 3 Big Ten teams have played in the Orange Bowl a total of 4 times: Penn State (twice), Michigan, and Iowa. I can't figure this one out. Iowa does not a much bigger fan base than the other options (Penn State, Cincy, Boise State, BYU: the only other teams the Orange Bowl could have selected, not saying they were going to select BYU, just saying they were eligible), though it is bigger than all but Penn State and MAYBE BYU. It is a longer distance to travel for local Iowa fans without a large airport to travel from. Plus, this puts the two lowest-ranked teams together that are playing in a BCS game. I could understand a Cincinnati or Penn State pick. But Iowa? This is the only bowl game that I don't think did what was in their best interests, but maybe they thought it was. Either way, this is probably the worst of the BCS games. Though Florida-Cincy might be a bigger blowout, at least it has some intrigue: Tony Pike vs. Tim Tebow in a battle of senior QBs vying for better position in the first round of the draft next year.

MWC bowls

Here is how I view the MWC bowls:

The MWC's 5th place team, Wyoming, has a chance to cement MWC supremacy as they take on Fresno State, the WAC's 3rd place finisher. Wyoming isn't much better than UNLV and SDSU who finished behind them in the standings: so we're looking at a non-elite team in the MWC. Fresno State, who is light years ahead of 4th place Idaho, provides an opportunity for the middle of the pack MWC to assert some superiority over an upper-echelon WAC team. Last year, given the same situation, Colorado State handled Fresno State to give the MWC a notch in their belt. This Fresno State team is a better rushing team, is more resilient, and will be more motivated than last year's team. Wyoming does have a fairly stout defense, not as good as in year's past, but the offense has come a long way from where it was in recent years.

Air Force has a great draw from the standpoint of getting a quality opponent. Houston has made a name for itself with a 3-0 record against BCS opponents, two of which are going to bowl games (Oklahoma State and Texas Tech). However, it is a terrible draw in that Houston's passing attack will probably eat them up. Experts point out how great a pass defense Air Force has. They played one team this year that has anything close to an efficient passing game (like Houston has): BYU. They gave up 38 points and 377 passing yards; and it could have been worse. Regardless, if the 4th place team in the MWC can get a ranked opponent in a bowl game, that is definitely a good thing.

Utah gets a Cal team that had Rose Bowl hopes early in the year. They were in the top 10 and looking unstoppable. They got clobbered by Oregon and then again by USC and Oregon State at home. Then they got snake-bit by Washington in the season finale which dropped them from a 2nd place to 5th place finish in the Pac 10. This is not a motivated opponent. It's also an unranked opponent in a bowl with a smaller payout. It is a good draw in that they should win this game. But I'm sure that any rational thinking person would much rather have played Oregon State in the Vegas Bowl, despite rumblings from the state of Utah that BYU got shafted and Utah got a great deal...

BYU gets a very fast, perimeter-oriented rushing team with Oregon State. They are still ranked in the top 20. They were 5 points away from making the Rose Bowl. Motivation might be a factor here as well. The Vegas Bowl should be pretty routine for BYU now. They won't be distracted by the lights, dancers, gambling, and other not-Honor-Code-approved activities in Vegas. Oregon State might not have their eye on the ball, if you know what I mean. This is definitely a step up as far as the typical Vegas Bowl team from the Pac 10. They have never sent a ranked team to this game. They have only sent a team with less than 5 losses once (Cal in 2005 was 7-4). BYU is 0-2 in the Vegas Bowl when playing as a non-MWC-champion.

I've already let out my disappointment with the pick of TCU playing Boise State. Yes, you have undefeated against undefeated, but still, I'd rather see Cincy-Boise State and TCU-Florida. Even TCU vs. Georgia Tech in the Orange Bowl would have been fine! After the game, we could declare TCU the ACC champion. They beat the conference champ, the other division champ, and another ACC team. All of those games would have been in ACC country too! Boise State playing second place in the Big Ten Iowa would have been better too. Anyway: let the non-BCS prove whether or not they belong! Given their potential opponents, I think they would have had a good shot at 2-0. I certainly don't blame the Fiesta Bowl at all: what they did was definitely the best scenario for their bowl game. Consider this: play a game roughly halfway between the two best non-BCS teams. Or pick Cincy/Iowa who are farther away and probably aren't that much bigger of a draw, if it's bigger at all. They got two undefeated conference champions that will definitely travel well to the game! Being the first matchup of its kind is probably also the best possibility for their ratings as well. Certainly better than having 2-loss Big Ten runner-up Iowa on the field. I do not believe this was some conspiracy by the BCS: the Fiesta Bowl did the right thing for them, I just hoped for something better for the rest of America. Imagine a 6-team playoff: Cincy-Boise State, winner gets Texas, TCU-Florida, winner gets Bama...oh, dare to dream...

I think Air Force was the luckiest one from the MWC as far as drawing a quality opponent where it wasn't necessarily expected. BYU probably couldn't have gotten luckier with their draw of the 5th selection from the Pac 10 unless USC slid down that far: they got the 2nd place team in the Pac 10. TCU and Utah both got shafted, in my opinion, with their draws. Wyoming got a team that will be a challenge for them, but is a nice chance to show they have turned their program around somewhat. I think there is a good chance the MWC goes 3-2, maybe as good as 4-1.

We, the fans, got screwed

Seriously, TCU plays Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl? We've all been duped. We get 4 crummy BCS games. The Orange Bowl matchup has little intrigue, with Georgia Tech hosting Iowa: lame. Cincinnati playing Florida? Give me a break: yeah, we can find out the MAMMOTH difference between the champion of the Big East and second place in the SEC. Oregon and Ohio State? Two of the most overrated programs year in and year out squaring off in the supposed Grand-Daddy of Them All. Boise State, TCU? Are they good enough to play with the big boys? We'll never know, they have to play each other, for the second straight year in a bowl game.

The BCS is a mess. This is a sham. Knowing which 8 teams would be playing, how could they manage to get ZERO exciting matchups with top 10 teams? I'd love to see Cincinnati against Boise State or Florida against TCU. I don't really care about seeing Iowa play in any BCS game, but at least they got the only opponent they could actually beat, well and maybe Boise State.

BYU got a very favorable matchup: they get a ranked opponent in a bowl game for the first time since the 1996 Cotton Bowl. It's also one of very few non-BCS games that involve two ranked teams. LSU vs. Penn State highlights the group, while Miami vs. Wisconsin and Arizona vs. Nebraska round it out.

Utah draws California, a nice matchup for them and a very winnable game to extend their nation leading bowl winning streak. Nevada and SMU play in Hawaii: that will probably be the highest scoring game of all the bowls with Nevada's rushing attack meeting June Jones and SMU's wide-open passing game. I like the Texas A&M/Georgia matchup as well. Two teams that SHOULD be building for fairly powerful teams next season. Air Force/Houston isn't going to be the type of game the "experts" predict: both teams will move the ball, but in very different ways. Missouri/Navy should also be a fun game, similar to the Air Force/Houston game: lots of running on one side, lots of passing on the other. Oklahoma State/Ole Miss should be renamed the Disappointment Bowl. East Carolina tries to hold down SEC offensive juggernaut Arkansas: I think they will. There are very few games that non-BCS teams have where they can make a statement, C-USA and all non-BCS schools need ECU to make that statement. I am very excited for the Central Michigan vs. Troy game as well. I'll probably be more likely to watch that than I will be the Sugar Bowl!

My suggestion: don't take off work to watch any of the games!

Not much mystery now...

What a great day of football! The past two weekends are a great way to go out after a fairly blah season. Congrats to all the conference champions, except for Cincinnati. I hope Brian Kelly leaves for Notre Dame and they fall back into mediocrity. Their "run" this season just bothers me.

National Championship will be:
Alabama vs. Texas

Orange Bowl:
TCU vs. Georgia Tech

Fiesta Bowl:
Penn State vs. Boise State (could be Iowa but I really think the Fiesta Bowl officials go with the national following of the Nittany Lions)

Sugar Bowl:
Florida vs. Cincinnati

Vegas Bowl:
USC vs. BYU

Poinsettia Bowl:
California vs. Utah

Cincinnati gets the call

I am really not a conspiracy theory guy, but the Big East officials continue to give Cincinnati the benefit of the doubt. They have missed four OBVIOUS calls against Cincy in the final two minutes. I'm not saying they wouldn't have won the game anyway, but I'd like to see them earn it for one time this season. That is 3 games by my count this season that they won with a lot of help from the officials and the replay crews. Congrats to them, but this was an absolutely ridiculous season for the Big East! If they jump TCU in the final standings, I cry foul.

Congrats to the Oregon Ducks

No one is happier about the Ducks making a visit to the Rose Bowl than Ohio State. Finally, a Pac 10 opponent they have a chance against! Congratulations to the Ducks: take down the Buckeyes!

Well, another coach gone: Mark Mangino is out as Kansas' head football coach. He is the best coach in their history and has brought the program to life after a century of complete disaster. Whoever takes over for him has a huge rebuilding job next year, but it will be way easier than what Mangino had to deal with his first year.

A lot of conference championship games this weekend, should make for some fun football watching.

MAC: Central Michigan Chippewas over the Ohio Bobcats. Too much offense for CMU. Ohio does have an exciting offense of its own, but this is the year of the Chippewa. 31-20.
C-USA: Houston Cougars over the East Carolina Pirates. Same deal: ECU prides itself on D, Houston on O. But ECU can't hold Houston down ALL DAY two years in a row, and ECU's O is too sporadic to expect enough points to win. Houston's biggest struggles in C-USA has been with explosive offenses, which ECU is not. 35-20.
Big East (de facto championship game): Pitt pulls off the "upset" in this one. If Pitt would have beaten West Virginia last week, it wouldn't be an upset. Cincy has been living on the edge for several games this year. This is the time they finally fall off the cliff. Pitt: stick with the running game! 28-24.
ACC: Clemson over Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech's biggest struggles have come against rushing attacks this season. Enter Clemson with two great running backs. In the first meeting, G-Tech rushed out to a huge 24-0 lead early in the game, but Clemson dominated the rest of play before falling short, 30-27. Payback this time around is sweet for the Tigers: 41-24, 200+ rushing yards for Spiller.
Big 12: Nebraska has a chance, they really do, against the Texas Longhorns. However, Nebraska cannot afford to go 3 and out too often, which has been the signature of their offense this season. Texas has an O that can take 5, 6, 8 minutes off the clock and wear you down. Colt McCoy can make the big play on 3rd and long. I think it'll be close for a short while, but Nebraska's lack of offense ultimately costs them this game before halftime. 34-10.
SEC: Florida. Bama. Rematch of last year's game where Tim Tebow dominated the fourth quarter. First time I've ever seen Urban Meyer outcoached for any period of time: unfortunately for Saban, he only did it for 3 quarters. I think Urban has learned from that experience. Tebow wants it. You can't win two games in a season 12-10, so I'm going with Florida and the two-dimensional offense. Both teams are phenomenal on special teams. Both have exciting blitz packages and D-lines that can get a surge. It should be fun. 17-12, Gators.

Cal edges Washington in a closer-than-expected game.
USC beats Arizona. We now have a 4-way tie for 2nd in the Pac 10: sweet.
Hawaii takes down Wisconsin to get bowl eligible. They play former skipper June Jones in the Hawaii Bowl!
Connecticut beats worn-down South Florida.
Boise State completes its undefeated season with a beatdown of New Mexico State. They dominated the Pac 10 champion and went undefeated. What more can they do to earn a BCS game? Besides join the MWC and repeat the feat.
Rutgers beats West Virginia at home. R-U, rah rah.

Under the radar vs. overrated

Well, a lot rides on this game tonight between the Beavers and the Ducks. I like Oregon here though this is their first weeknight prime time game in quite some time, where the Beavers have had several Thursday night showdowns in recent years. This game usually comes down to the team with the better offense: doesn't sound quite right, especially when a championship is on the line. But typically with this game: fireworks matter more than big hits. Oregon has the better offense right now.

One team wins and goes to the Rose Bowl. Oregon State could fall as far as the Vegas Bowl (for the 5th place Pac 10 team). Oregon would only fall to the Holiday Bowl. So Oregon State certainly has a lot more to lose. Both teams are pretty experienced and have played on big stages before: both teams have flopped in the big game as well as have pulled off the big ones. I like the Ducks, because it makes Boise State's case better! OK, so that's not a real reason to pick one team over another, but how unfair would it be if Boise State goes undefeated, dominating the Pac 10 champ who lost another game in addition to the one they dropped to the Broncos, and doesn't go to a BCS game. They would have a legitimate gripe on the system: two consecutive undefeated seasons and ZERO BCS bowl games. They can't do much more than that.

Ducks win by outscoring you. The Beavers will have to match them score for the score: first one to kick a field goal or punt loses! Oregon State has done plenty of scoring, but Oregon gets to 42 first and takes this version of the Civil War.

I had a feeling

Well, college hoops has started. BYU was a near-unanimous pick to win the MWC. UNLV and New Mexico were picked 3rd and 5th, respectively. I found that a little scary, given the amazing talent both of these schools were bringing in through freshmen AND several transfers from BCS schools. Now, two weeks into the season, it appears I might have been right about those two. Meanwhile, BYU's road woes continued last night with a loss to Utah State. I can count on ONE finger the number of decent-to-pretty-good teams that BYU has beaten on the road in the Dave Rose era. So to lose by 9 at Utah State was not surprising at all.

On the other hand, you have UNLV and New Mexico beating top 25 teams in the past week and UNLV beating Arizona on the road, who may not be a top 25 team, but they will certainly thump BYU when they host them in a few weeks. Utah, who was picked fourth has continued to be a Jekyll and Hyde: beating Illinois and Utah State, but losing to Idaho and Weber State. That's not the recipe to win an MWC championship. To win the MWC you need two things: consistency and road wins. BYU looks consistent, but lacks the ability to win on the road. UNLV, on the other hand, has been playing with greater consistency and beating quality teams at home and on the road. New Mexico hasn't exactly played lights out competition as of yet, and has not played anyone of note on the road, but knocking off a top 25 team is something that few MWC schools have been able to accomplish thus far (UNLV and Utah). The competition gets tougher for them soon, we'll see how they respond. My guess is that first conference road game (at SDSU), it starts to head south.

San Diego State has looked a lot like BYU: win at home against subpar competition, lose on the road to (or need OT to win against) any half-decent team. My predictions on how the MWC goes this year:
UNLV
BYU
New Mexico
San Diego State
Utah
TCU
Air Force
Colorado State
Wyoming

MWC All-Conference Team

What it means:

Expect a lot of scoring in the conference next year! The first-team D is riddled with seniors. The first-team O, however, has more juniors and sophomores than seniors. The second team O has one more senior than juniors and sophomores. Not surprisingly, no freshman made either first or second offensive or defensive all-conference team.

TCU had 15 selections, 6 of which were seniors, as well as the offensive, defensive, and special teams players of the year and coach Gary Patterson was coach of the year. Not all that surprising for a team that was CLEARLY the class of the league this season.
Utah had 12 selections, 9 of which were seniors.
BYU had 7 selections, 5 of which were seniors.
Air Force had 7 selections, only 2 of which were seniors.

Barring huge defections on the coaching staff or too many starry-eyed NFL dreamers, TCU should dominate the league (and the all-conference selections) again next season. Air Force's youth served it pretty well this year. I expect they'll make a serious push to move up at least one spot in the standings as they mature as a team and as a program. BYU is probably the more likely of the two (BYU and Utah) to get supplanted in the top 3.

I hope this is enough reading material for a Tuesday. It's usually the slowest news day for football of the week, so I tried to give you something!

U of U recap

Despite a few well-documented classless actions by fans, players, and coaches over the past several years, I have the utmost respect for the University of Utah. If it weren't for the non-silent minority, they would certainly be one of the classiest institutions in the western United States. Unfortunately, all of the teams that all of us root for have fans we wish would go away. As a Cubs fan, there are many of my ilk that I cringe to associate with in the hope that "next year is here."

Now to football:
While those who had outrageous expectations for this team might be disappointed, I feel that the U of U exceeded what I thought possible this season. I figured this was the year they lost to Air Force, CSU, or UNLV. All 3 games were close, but they came out on top.

The defense was slightly better than I thought. What surprised me the most about the D was that the back 7 turned out to be the strength of the team. You knew the LBs were going to have great production, but I thought the line would be better against the run than the DBs were against the pass. Other than one or two bad games early (and TCU where they looked like a high school team), the pass D was phenomenal. Looking ahead to next year they have some promising players returning, but they are losing 8 significant players on D. The left side of the line stays in tact. 2 of the top 3 corners are back. Beyond that, pretty much everybody is gone. They also didn't get in a lot of blowouts to give backups some game experience.

The offense was very typical of Utah offenses. If the big play is clicking, they can score in a hurry and in bunches. If not, hopefully the D and special teams are scoring because they aren't driving the ball down the field. In 6 or 7 games that I watched them this season, I remember ONE drive that lasted over 10 plays. I would say that inexperience at QB and on the line cost them, but I know better. Other than Alex Smith's 2004 Utes, they have not put an offensive juggernaut on the field, really ever. Even last year's undefeated team was not a top 20 offense. They just aren't great on O: the Utes are a defensive-minded team. The good news is: an experienced unit returns next season. Jordan Wynn is a very promising QB. The line returns 4 of 5 starters. The WRs/TEs are losing 5 major players, but they have such a large rotation (10 guys saw significant action this year) and speed that they won't be hit too bad. Again, this is not the unit that this team is built around, but they should be able to get back to that 30 points/game plateau next year.

Special teams improved throughout the year. It will be interesting to see how kickoffs go next year. Ben Vroman has been money the past two seasons, putting just about every kickoff into the end zone. Return game got better as the year went on, but they didn't have the type of production they are used to. This unit was solid but unspectacular. Other than Vroman, the special teams will stay fairly similar I imagine next year. Usually this is where freshmen get a chance to play, and they have a buttload of speedy recruits from Cali and Texas that can make names for themselves here.

Outlook for next year:
The non-conference schedule has a lot of high-profile but very winnable games.
Pittsburgh and San Jose State travel to Rice-Eccles. Utah travels to Iowa State and Notre Dame. Utah should be able to go 3-1 with that schedule, but it is in the realm of possibilities that they go 4-0, or 2-2 for that matter. SJSU is a win for sure, Iowa State quite possibly is (though they improved dramatically this season and might pose a threat), and they could certainly win against Pitt or at Notre Dame.
In conference they have a good balance of good teams at home and on the road: Colorado State, UNLV, TCU, and BYU at home; Air Force, Wyoming, New Mexico, and SDSU on the road. CSU, UNLV, New Mexico, and SDSU should all definitely be wins. I expect TCU to be a loss. The other 3 are certainly winnable or losable. I think another 9-3 season is about right for the Utes. If they end up having a pretty good team, they could get up to 11 wins, or if things don't gel on O (again), and inexperience on D proves a real issue, that number could drop to 7 wins. I think the outlook would have to be TCU and then BYU, Utah, and Air Force battling for second place. It might be Air Force's year to get to 2nd: who knows...

Good run

Well, the BYU Cougars have finished a season for the record books. Four straight 10-win seasons. Max Hall became the all-time winningest QB in BYU history and became the best in a lot of QB statistics in the MWC record books. Harvey Unga became the all-time leader rusher in BYU history. Dennis Pitta became the all-time receptions leader in BYU history and set a myriad of other records for a BYU TE. Jan Jorgensen set sack records. Brian Logan set pass interference records...

Anyway, it was a record-breaking season, and this in a year where they finished second place in the conference. They spent a brief period of time in the top 10. With a bowl victory, they will finish very close to the top 10 as well (with enough upsets they could even break into the top 10). They are returning 8 starters on an offense that averaged 35 points/game.

So what's the outlook for next season: not good. At least for the standard that Bronco Mendenhall has set. He is going to be a victim of his own success. It will be a rebuilding year, most likely. Bronco's last rebuilding effort led to a 10-2 season, conference championship team. The main difference between next year's team and that one: the conference. Air Force was the biggest challenger for the top of the league. It was a very weak MWC for sure: TCU was around .500 that season. Utah was busy trying to overcome a 27-0 loss at UNLV. It was a year that put a lot of coaches on the hot seat. BYU filled the void. Next year, however, the rebuilding will result in a few extra losses. Replacing: the best TE tandem in the country, Max Hall, 6 of the front 7 on a D that was one of the best run D's in the country, and Scott Johnson, the QB of the defense.

The schedule isn't extremely kind: start with Washington at home, Florida State on the road, Nevada at home, and Utah State on the road. They SHOULD be 2-2 at worst. Washington could be a good team next year, certainly a pretty talented team. The Florida State product may not be much better than this year's team with the coaching regime change, but this year's product blasted BYU in Provo. Nevada should, in all likelihood, be a win. Utah State is improved, and things might get feisty up there. Right now, they look like the classiest program in the state. If Max Hall is right, Utah is classless and BYU, because of Max Hall's (and Jan Jorgensen's) recent comments, is as well. Way to go Aggies.

The conference schedule puts BYU against the top 3 MWC teams on the road. TCU is a loss. Utah has some question marks going in to next year, starting with that D that was good, but not great. It's going to be replacing essentially its top 7 defensive players. Air Force isn't a tough place to play necessarily, so being on the road for that one won't be too bad. They should be able to take CSU on the road. Wyoming, SDSU, UNLV, and New Mexico all go to Provo next year. I figure they have 6 games won already (Nevada, CSU, 4 conference home games) and 2 lost (Florida State and TCU). They are just playing for the middle 4 (Washington, Utah State, Utah, and Air Force). I'd say 8-4/9-3 sounds about right, good enough for a 2nd-3rd place finish in the MWC. I look forward to seeing how the bowl matchup plays out. If they go to the Vegas Bowl, it could be against: Cal, Stanford, USC, or Oregon State. Any of those would be a great draw/test/game. If they go to the Poinsettia: Arizona. Again. I am hoping they go to Vegas (again) so they can get a much higher quality (and new) opponent.

BCS Bowl Previews

These predictions are based on Texas beating Nebraska and Boise State beating New Mexico State. I have bolded the team that I think will be selected based on how I believe the games will go and selections will be made. After my predictions I will give a little information on how the selection takes place:

National Championship:
Florida/Alabama winner
Texas

Rose Bowl:
Oregon/Oregon State winner
Ohio State

Sugar Bowl:
Florida/Alabama loser
Pittsburgh

Orange Bowl:
Georgia Tech/Clemson winner
TCU

Fiesta Bowl:
Iowa/Penn State
Boise State

At-large teams: teams with at least 9 wins that finish in the top 14 of the Final BCS Standings. Only two teams from any conference may qualify, so the SEC can only have Alabama and Florida in BCS games, even with LSU at 9-3 in the top 14. Ohio State and Iowa OR Penn State will go to a BCS game, but all 3 cannot.

National Championship game impact on BCS games:
Number 1 and number 2 in the BCS standings go to the National Championship game. The games that lose their conference champion to the NC game have the choice of selecting either a second team in that conference or an at-large (i.e. not a conference champion from one of the 6 BCS conferences). The game that lost the number 1 team gets first pick (the Sugar) and the game that lost the number 2 team gets second (the Fiesta). The Sugar Bowl certainly takes the Florida/Alabama loser, who I believe will be Alabama. The Fiesta Bowl will not take a second Big 12 team to replace Texas: they will select either Penn State or Iowa from the Big Ten. My guess is, for national interest's sake, they take Penn State. It is possible that they select TCU but I think it is more likely to be Penn State.

Conference champions fall in:
The Rose Bowl takes the Pac 10 and Big Ten champion: Oregon (or Oregon State if they beat Oregon on Thursday night) and Ohio State. The Orange Bowl takes the ACC Champion: Clemson. The Big East champion falls in with the at-large teams as they are not tied to any specific bowl game.

At-large selections begin:
The likely pool of at-large teams available after the Fiesta Bowl selects a second Big Ten team is: TCU, Boise State, Cincinnati, Oregon (if they lose to Oregon State), Virginia Tech, Pitt (if they beat Cincinnati), BYU, and Miami or USC (but not both). These are teams with at least 9 wins that I project to be in the top 14 of the final BCS standings that come out next Sunday.

The Orange Bowl selects first from this list: they take an undefeated Cincinnati, or an undefeated TCU if Cincinnati is not undefeated.
The Fiesta Bowl goes second: TCU if they are still left or Boise State. It is also possible that they select Virginia Tech but unlikely.
The Sugar Bowl makes the final selection: Big East champion (if it is Pittsburgh) OR Virginia Tech. If the Fiesta Bowl does not select Boise State, they will not be selected by the Sugar Bowl.

With my predictions, I am saying that there will be a great National Championship game, pretty even Fiesta and Rose Bowls, and blowouts in the Orange and Sugar Bowls. It's unfortunate, but that is the way the BCS works. If Nebraska beats Texas:

NC:
SEC Champ (Florida) vs. TCU

Rose:
Pac 10 Champ (Oregon) vs. Ohio State

Orange:
ACC Champ (Clemson) vs. Texas

Sugar:
SEC 2nd team (Alabama) vs. Big East Champ (Pittsburgh)

Fiesta:
Nebraska vs. Big Ten 2nd team (Penn State)

BYU-Utah

So, rivalry game is here again. The winner goes to a better bowl game and finishes ranked. Loser drops from the top 25. Fans of both teams are wondering which team they will see. Utah has looked brilliant at times but very stoppable at others. BYU looked like a top 10 team several games this year, and resembled a bottom 10 team on several occasions. Both teams have some Jekyll and Hyde in them. Who shows up tomorrow?

Both teams have experienced defenses with big-hitting safeties, suspect corners, LBs that fly all over the field, and D-linemen that are good against the run and in rushing the passer. Both teams have big, strong, physical offensive lines. One has an experienced QB with inexperienced receivers. One has an inexperienced QB with experienced receivers. One uses the TE very well. The other employs a speedy slot receiver in place of a TE.

The teams are about as even as I have seen them in my brief history of watching this rivalry game. BYU's O is based on precision and timing. Utah's D is based on aggression and disrupting timing. BYU's D is based on stopping the big play. Utah's O is based on big plays. The teams seem to be built to stop each other. Utah has the advantage in adapting their schemes on the fly but goes on the road with a freshman QB. BYU does things one way whether it's working or not, but they are at home with a senior QB. However, Utah does not adjust at halftime as well as BYU.

Early in the year, Utah lacked the ability to spread the field vertically: enter Jordan Wynn, and their speedy receivers all of a sudden start getting the ball down the field. The Utah O has looked like an entirely different animal the past 4 games with Wynn at the helm. On the other hand, BYU's D has taken a turn for the worst. Games 1 and 2, they were an aggressive, blitzing, mix-up-the-coverage type of D. Since then: passive, predictable, and soft on their coverage. This is the key matchup: how does the Ute O, led by a true freshman who is experiencing the madness of this game for the first time, do against a stout-against-the-run but porous-against-the-pass defense?

It's also a matchup of wannabe 1,000-yard rushers. Both Eddie Wide and Harvey Unga need under 100 yards to reach 1,000 for the season. Unga does more of his work up the middle where Eddie Wide likes to get wide. Both offenses are geared towards those strengths and both backs take advantage of their opportunities. Both backs have been nicked up a bit: we'll see if that plays a role tomorrow as well.

Turnovers were huge last year. It was a 7-point game going into the fourth quarter before Max Hall completely imploded. I anticipate BYU taking better care of the ball this year. If they don't, it won't matter how Jordan Wynn and the Ute offense do: BYU will not win turning it over 6 times. The games in Provo tend to be lower-scoring affairs. That favors Utah. BYU definitely wants to see a higher-scoring game as that gives them the edge. 24 points should be enough to win.

I really think the experience factor plays big, particularly if it's close down the stretch, which pretty much all of these games have been recently. It will be close again, but BYU will pull away late: 27-17, thanks to the Max Hall and Dennis Pitta connection.

Weekend Predictions

Texas A&M played extremely well last night. Perhaps they are closer to being a contender in the South than most of us thought. They still need some consistency, both within games and game-to-game. You can't lose to Colorado. You can't lose by 28 points to anybody: the Aggies did it THREE times this season. There is improvement there though, certainly on offense!

The ACC might see a couple of upsets: South Carolina-Clemson could go the way of the Gamecocks, certainly at home, on Senior Day; Florida State-Florida (OK, just kidding with this one); Miami better be careful at South Florida, they have a pretty good front four on D; and Georgia has dominated G-Tech in recent years, though Tech is clearly the better team this year, Georgia is still the more talented team.

The Big 12 slate is pretty uninteresting, particularly for a rivalry week. Kansas-Mizzou means very little (and most KU fans have stopped paying attention to football already anyway). OU fans are too upset with the team to watch the Bedlam matchup this year. CU-Nebraska puts exact opposites against each other: 8-3 vs. 3-8. That sucks.

Big East will be highlighted by West Virginia-Pitt. Pitt is really good. I would be pretty surprised to see West Virginia pull it out: they don't have the D to stop Pitt's O. Plus, Big East officials, particularly in the replay booth, have shown EXTREME bias towards the higher ranked teams in several matchups this year. Can WVU overcome poor officiating?

C-USA has Southern Miss playing at East Carolina. One of the more overrated non-BCS teams against one of the more underrated non-BCS teams: I'm going with the underrated Golden Eagles to pull this one out.

Navy wins at Hawaii.

Ohio-Temple has started as the MAC game of the week: gotta go with Frank Solich and the Ohio Bobcats. Central Michigan beats Northern Illinois.

Besides TCU needing to beat New Mexico as a formality, the only game that matters this weekend in the MWC is BYU-Utah. I guess the Wyoming-CSU game matters for fans of their teams and Wyoming could still get bowl eligible. Cowboys win. BYU-Utah gets a separate post...

The only game I'm considering watching from the Pac 10 is Notre Dame-Stanford. I would like to see how one of the best RBs in the country plays in the final home game of the season against one of the worst run defenses Notre Dame has had in the history of its storied program. I guess UCLA-USC might be exciting, but I'm tired of hearing about USC. And Notre Dame. And Michigan.

The Iron Bowl could be exciting today (Alabama at Auburn), or it could be a blowout. Alabama's D hasn't really been tested by a great offense this season. I'm not saying they aren't a great defense, I'm just saying it's easy to look better than you are when you have only played one offense in the top 30 in scoring O, and only four in the top 50. Auburn will test them. I think this game comes down to a kicker.

Troy faces its final obstacle in the Sun Belt in (bowl eligible but not going bowling) Louisiana-Lafayette. Troy finishes undefeated in the Sun Belt for its 4th consecutive title.

Nevada plays at Boise State in the only intriguing WAC game. Nevada is "on a roll" but it's tough not to be on a roll when your 8 game winning streak includes ZERO ranked teams and only 2 bowl eligible teams, both of whom are WAC teams. I think Boise could win this game by 28 points. Nevada does not win, no way, no how!

I can admit it

My predictions for last weekend sucked. Totally. Across the board. I am entitled to a week like that every now and again. That was my 2nd such weekend this season, but I still maintain around 75% on my picks for the season.
BYU dominated. Ole Miss pulled it out against LSU. I did get the Pac 10 games right, so I'll go ahead and take some credit.

Now, the Big Ten conference season is over. Let's see how I did. I said:
Ohio State
Penn State
Michigan State
Iowa
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan
Minnesota
Purdue
Indiana

It was:
Ohio State
Iowa
Penn State
Northwestern
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Purdue
Minnesota
Illinois
Michigan
Indiana

I was a little off on the two Michigan schools, giving both of them a little too much credit, and I didn't give quite enough credit to Iowa and Purdue: though Purdue still didn't make a bowl game. I challenge you to find an "expert" who more accurately predicted the Big Ten before the season started! I am curious to see what you find...I stand by my performance unless someone shows me a much more accurate prediction.

BYU-Air Force

Two years ago, Air Force was riding high, coming in to LES. A lot of people (not just Utah fans) thought they could take down the Cougars and compete for the conference title. BYU thumped them. They handled the option, forced turnovers, and moved the ball easily for a big win. They got up early and stayed ahead.

This year, Air Force comes in with a better defense, an efficient offense, and without all the fanfare. BYU has a lot of potential records to set this week: Max Hall could become the all-time leader in wins for a BYU QB, Harvey Unga could set the record for rushing yards and attempts by a BYU player, and the home sellout streak could extend as well. BYU essentially got eliminated from a conference championship chance, which is one of their goals. The defensive line seems more concerned with the method Air Force's O-line employs to block (cut blocking which is totally legal) than they are with the scheme they will employ.

BYU has had a great run defense to counter Air Force's great run offense. BYU has been one of the most efficient pass offenses in the country and Air Force counters with the most efficient pass defense in the country. Strength on strength, weakness on weakness. BYU players expect their strengths to win out over the Academy's. The difference is: this year Air Force feels the same way.

Bronco Mendenhall has owned Air Force since his arrival in to the BYU program. Last year they showed a small chink in the armor, but still won by two scores. A lot of things point to BYU winning this game. Air Force lost a tough one to TCU (by 3 which is TCU's closest game this season). They lost to Utah in overtime on the road. Today, in LaVell Edwards Stadium, they finally get that signature win they have been needing this season. Today they prove that you have to take Air Force seriously, or they will knock you in the mouth, over and over again. Air Force 31, BYU 27. Sorry, Cougar fans. From what I have listened to, I just don't hear the BYU players being focused enough this week to beat the Air Force Falcons. To the Poinsettia Bowl go the Cougars.

Thoughts on the weekend

Not a great weekend for college football fans. Florida and Alabama are taking the week off, basically. Texas plays disappointing Kansas. Ohio State-Michigan hasn't been much of a rivalry for about a decade now. Nobody in the top 10 has much of a test this weekend. I'd be stunned if the top 10 lost a single game this weekend. Maybe the top 15, in aggregate, loses 2 games, but they are probably more likely to go 11-0 than they are to go 9-2. It is not a good weekend to try to rise in the polls. Some changes will take place in the BCS standings as computers will do some fairly heavy shifting around with top 25 teams schedule-strength taking big hits.

LSU-Ole Miss highlights the SEC slate. I think in August it looked like it would be a great matchup, when Ole Miss was overrated and LSU was a potential sleeper. Alabama already has the SEC West wrapped up with 2 weeks left to be played, and it's been secure for a few weeks already! LSU wins this road game. In other SEC news, Tennessee gets bowl eligible with a win against Vandy and Georgia beats Kentucky.

In the ACC, there's nothing doing with Georgia Tech off this week and the other 3 ranked teams playing teams eliminated from bowl contention (NC State only has 6 losses, but played 2 I-AA teams so needed to go 7-5 to qualify). North Carolina is coming off a big win over over-hyped, over-ranked Miami. Boston College has quietly put together another solid campaign, but most likely finishes behind Clemson in the division. BC still wins this one though. For a conference with 9 bowls, it is looking like it may only get 7 teams eligible, assuming Florida State can beat Maryland. I'm counting Duke out which needs to win BOTH of its final two with Miami and Wake Forest. That loss to Richmond must be killing the Blue Devils!

The Big 12 should have had some good games: OU-Tech, Kansas-Texas, and even K-State at Nebraska. OU has been a disappointment. As has Kansas. Texas Tech did well for a rebuilding year, but I can guarantee you they are saddened by their record. K-State needs to win their game to get bowl eligible. And if they do win, they also win the division! Pathetic. OU, Texas, Nebraska, Missouri, and A&M come off victorious this weekend.

The Big East schedule isn't even worth mentioning.

The Big Ten provides the best OPPORTUNITY for upsets. Minnesota at Iowa, Ohio State at Michigan (yeah right), Wisconsin at Northwestern, and Penn State at Michigan State. 3 of the 4 ranked teams play on the road and the one that plays at home is Iowa, who eked out home wins over I-AA Northern Iowa, Sun Belt non-contender Arkansas State, and Michigan, and needed oodles of help from the men in stripes to pull off a home win against 4-7 Indiana. Of the 4 ranked teams, Wisconsin is playing the best football right now and is the one not playing a true rival. As far as upsets happening, Michigan State is the most likely. I'd love to Northwestern and Minnesota to pull off theirs, but I don't think so. Rich Rod is almost as big of a disaster in Ann Arbor as Charlie Weis is in South Bend. I wish we could stop hearing about both of them. Seriously.

In the non-BCS conferences, only two games put two games with winning records against each other: Northern Illinois at Ohio and Air Force at BYU. Go Bobcats. I like TCU to win convincingly in somewhat of a letdown game (still by 3 TDs though). Utah wins a struggle against an SDSU team that is fighting for its postseason life. I'm sure the Ute ego took a huge hit with that performance last week. They haven't been dominated like that since a 27-0 loss to currently coachless UNLV back in 2007. I'm curious to see how they respond. CSU edges a somewhat rejuvenated but still extremely poor 0-10 New Mexico team in the battle for last place.

The Pac 10 has two very good games. Cal at red hot, but still beatable Stanford and the Oregon Ducks on the road against the pesky Arizona Wildcats. The old adage: defense wins championships need not apply. Stanford has won games by outscoring people, as has Oregon. Look no further then their head-to-head matchup for proof of that: Stanford won 51-42. I think road teams come away victorious this weekend: Cal upsets Stanford and Oregon pounds Arizona to the tune of 500 yards and 42+ points.

Transition Period

This is always a difficult time of year for me: college hoops is underway but there are still a lot of meaningful football games left. I will occasionally write about hoops the next few weeks, but until the bowl games have been announced, I'll maintain my entire focus on football.

A few tidbits for the weekend:
Pac 10 reigns supreme. The only really meaningful games (from a national perspective) this weekend come from the Pac 10. And USC has a bye. What happened?

The bowl situation mostly settles this weekend for the MWC. SDSU is facing elimination from bowl eligibility, as they face Utah and UNLV, needing to win both games. Wyoming is standing on the precipice of that cliff as well, facing off against TCU followed by Colorado State, needing only one win. Air Force can put itself in contention for a bigger-than-normal bowl game with a win over BYU on the road. Utah and BYU can both earn their titles of being part of "the Big 3" with wins this weekend, essentially making their game on November 28th a Vegas Bowl play-in game. TCU could wrap-up their BCS game appearance by winning at Wyoming (they finish the season at home against winless New Mexico).

On a side note, Colorado State and New Mexico battle it out for last place, as both stand at 0-6 with two games left: the winner, at worst, ties for 8th/last, where the loser, at best, ties for last.

How about that Big 12 North? Kansas State, with a win against Nebraska would clinch the Big 12 North and head off to the Big 12 Championship. With a loss, they are not even eligible for a bowl game. That's jacked up: one win separates them from a chance at a BCS game and not even going to a bowl game. Either way: they will still receive as much money from the BCS as an undefeated TCU or Boise State would. That's jacked up too!

A preview of next week's preview

BYU and Utah look pretty even right now. BYU's struggles have been on D and in the return game. Utah's struggles have been on O and in the kicking game. Both got their butts kicked by the class of the league, TCU. Both lost potentially big games against BCS teams. BYU got killed, by a decent-at-best Florida State, who played a phenomenal game. Utah lost a close one to a potential Pac 10 Champion, who played horribly but still did enough to win. You could argue FSU played such a perfect game against BYU because BYU is bad and that Oregon played such a crappy game because Utah is good. I won't make that argument because I don't think it's true. If both games were played again right now, I'm not sure the ultimate outcome would change, though BYU would probably tighten up their margin of loss and Utah's would probably increase.

Comparing coaching for the two teams: Kyle is a great big game coach, but not a good day-to-day coach. His teams often overperform against superior talent, but definitely underperform against average competition. Bronco does a great job preparing his team week-to-week, day-to-day, for the most part dismantling all of their unranked opponents, while continually struggling against ranked opponents.

It's tough to decide whether this is a big game or not. Certainly you have the rivalry factor, which makes it a big game. It is two ranked teams playing in the last week of the season. But there is nothing all the line EXCEPT bragging rights. I know that is a lot to play for, but is playing for second place enough for BYU to go crawling into its shell as they often do? Will Utah get that big game mentality and play like world-beaters without the motivation of a BCS game or the thought of ruining BYU's season? I think BYU probably avoids playing TOO timid, and Utah will most likely play a less than perfect game. How will it play out then? You'll have to wait until next week to see what I think.

A look at TCU/Boise State

I thought it at the time, but it was confirmed this weekend: this 2009 TCU team is the best team I have ever seen in the MWC. Maybe the 2004 Utah Utes were better, but I'm not sure. TCU ran all over a decent MWC this season. They made a good Utah defense look ridiculously bad. They made a good BYU offense look like a high school team. They won two ACC road games, one against a current division leader. They are just plain good. They have a much better resume than any of the previous BCS busters, but it looks like they have a near zero chance of being able to prove it. My one hope is that if Boise State and TCU both make BCS bowls they get to play BCS teams instead of having to play each other.

Having poured over potential at-large teams, the competition for bids looks like this:
SEC gets 2 teams
Big 12 could get 2
Big 10 could get 2
Big East, ACC, Pac 10 get only 1
TCU gets a spot.

There are a few scenarios that would "steal" a potential BCS bid: Texas losing the Big 12 championship game, Iowa and Penn State both finishing 10-2 and creeping into the top 10, Oklahoma State finishing 10-2 with an impressive national TV audience game Thursday against CU and winning at Oklahoma to close the season to finish in the top 9. There are 8 guaranteed BCS spots at this point: 6 BCS conference champs, SEC 2nd place finisher, and TCU. Texas will go to a BCS game, so a loss in the Big 12 title game means 9 spots are spoken for. A top 10 (or even 12) Penn State or Iowa is very likely to get a BCS bid. A 10-2 Oklahoma State would most likely get a bid as well, if there is still one left to take, unless the ratings for the CU-OK State game are absolutely horrid this Thursday, which they might be. If Georgia Tech, LSU, Ohio State, and Oregon win out, it might maintain enough of a buffer in the standings between Boise State and the Big Ten/12 teams for the Broncos to get to a BCS game. I think this one comes down to the wire. If Boise State gets in the top 5, can they really get left out? It all comes down to dollars in the end, and we'll see how much "respect" the Broncos' fans are getting come December 6th...

Weekend predictions

Well the replay bug struck again with Cincinnati being awarded a phantom touchdown last night. It may or may not have been a touchdown but there was no indisputable video evidence. Either way, it's getting ridiculous with the number of controversial replay decisions going IN FAVOR of top 10 and top 5 teams. There are three people in the replay booth, but only one of them makes the final decision, the other two merely assist. I think in order to overturn a call all three must unanimously decide to overturn. Easy fix, no additional cost to it.

I don't foresee a lot of top 25 upsets this week. The teams that I put on upset alert are:
Miami at North Carolina, Pittsburgh against Notre Dame and Oklahoma St. against Texas Tech. I expect Florida to handle South Carolina with relative ease, but you never know with the Ol' Ball Coach. California is favored over their ranked opponent, Arizona, so that's not an upset, but it is a top 25 team that I think will lose. Miami has struggled mightily against every good defense they have played and North Carolina has a great defense, but if North Carolina can't scored 10 points FOR ONCE, they have no chance. As far as Pittsburgh goes, I still think mentally they are not quite a top 10 team and, therefore, might struggle against a team as talanted as Notre Dame. But Notre Dame's coaching, as has been the case for the last decade, holds them back. As far as the Tech-State game is concerned, both teams have explosive offenses with defenses that typically struggle. However, Tech's defense has shown a lot of improvement the past few weeks. If they can force more turnovers than they give up, they can certainly win this tough road game.

Now to the big games: I don't think either will be close. I think Ohio St. will score on Iowa's "tough" defense and Iowa's offense, which depends on the running game, will struggle to move against the best run defense in the Big Ten. I expect a similar fate for Utah: a great rushing attack going against one of the best run defenses in the country (besides their own). Although, with Jordan Wynn playing QB now, Utah will have the ability to spread the field vertically as well as horizontally. Utah has "big game" potential and definitely has the ability to surprise. Jim Boylen, Utah's basketball coach, gave an interview earlier this week where he said the 17-point line on the game was a joke and that it would definitely tighten up before game time. Wrong: it now sits at 20 points. Maybe people know something the Utes don't. I think TCU certainly has the potential to dominate: but Utah definitely has the potential to upset. I think Utah (and Iowa) will be able to keep the games close for a while. However, I expect both of those games to finish something like 31 to 10 in favor of the home teams: high 20's to low 30's for the home teams against a single digit, maybe teens score for the visitors.

Not much needs to be said about BYU at New Mexico. On paper it is a blowout. BYU has shown the ability to blow out inferior opponents, and New Mexico has shown the ability to get blown out by good teams (or any team, really). If this is closer than 4 touchdowns, then BYU is in trouble in the next two games.

MWC basketball had an OK night. Teams at the bottom of the conference struggled against crappy teams or lost to them. BYU came up big against Bradley, never trailing except for 2-0. CSU handled UC Davis at home. Utah and Wyoming lost their home openers against teams they could/should have beaten. TCU and Air Force both struggled against crummy directional schools, while getting W's.

Another exhibition in the books

Well, BYU won its second and final exhibition game last night, beating Division II Central Washington, 82-46. Here are a few thoughts from the game:

Brandon Davies is the best center on the team. I know he's just a freshman and I wouldn't overwork him and wear him down, but I would start him and play him at least 20 minutes a game. I didn't realize how bad Chris Miles is offensively or how slow defensively, until I could compare the two next to each other.

BYU played a lot of different lineups: some worked, some didn't. At one point in time, Noah Hartsock, Jackson Emery, and Logan Magnusson were on the floor together. Offensively, that was a nightmare. It might be one of the better defensive lineups, but it's not worth it for the total lack of production on the offensive end. There was a ton of speed when Michael Loyd and Lamon Morgan were both in the game at the same time. BYU was really able to push the ball. It is a smaller lineup defensively, but Loyd showed a couple of times that he can sky for the rebound. The one lineup I didn't see that I would like to, particularly against some of the guard-oriented teams in the MWC: Tavernari, Abouo, Haws, Emery, and Fredette. I realize that lineup is tiny, but that would be impossible to stop on the offensive side. All 5 can shoot the 3-ball, penetrate off the dribble, finish at the rim, and make free throws.

The defense was solid last night. The perimeter defense was a step slow on their rotation early but got it solved by halftime. The interior defense was phenomenal early but weren't quite as crisp in the second half. The freshman were particularly impressive, for freshman, on the defensive side of the ball. I do worry about Haws being taken off the dribble and I'm not sure how Davies will respond against a center that can post up.

It appears that Zylstra and Magnusson are the weak links on the team. I believe Magnusson should/will likely redshirt. Since these two are players 12 and 13 (and only 12 can dress for games), it only makes sense to redshirt one of them. Zylstra has already redshirted.

I worry about the interior offense. Hartsock, who played some 5 last night (I hope it doesn't continue), has promise but looks like he's fresh off a mission. So does probable starting center Chris Miles. Problem is: they aren't fresh off missions and should be better by now. Anderson is a solid THIRD center. Davies is going to continue to be a black hole/vacuum, but, like I said earlier, he should definitely start. Hey, at least he puts it in the basket occasionally. Chris Miles should try that from time to time, particularly from inside 4 feet!

Tavernari got hot early, which was exciting. However, he kept shooting all game even after that early hot spell turned cold. I think this will continue to be a trend for him, as is his usual MO.

Two worries still: perimeter defense, interior scoring. Rebounding was a lot better last night. The boxing out was better from the big men and the guards got involved as well, which helped spark the fast break, especially with the Loyd/Morgan combination out there.