The day has finally arrived. The teams are all set up in their hotels, nervously waiting for that first hit, catch, kick. The media in charge of presenting a good game are gnawing at their breakfast, nervously waiting for that first tackle by Eathyn Manumaleuna. My brother is sitting in a van with his sons and a few good friends, driving up the east coast bound for Charlottesville. I'm sitting here, decked out in Notre Dame stuff watching College Gameday.
The day is here. After years of griping about Riley Nelson, after months of off-season analysis about the "go fast, go hard" mantra, and after weeks of worrying about BYU's CBs, now we get to see if it was Riley holding BYU back, if the hurry-up offense can really work for BYU, and if the mish-mash of DBs can actually cover people.
Sure, Virginia isn't the deepest or most talented team in the country. But they have some solid starters and some potential NFL-ers on the roster, particularly on their offense. In the first game of the season, just about anything can happen, particularly with so many new coaches for both teams.
Virginia has a guy that can cover Cody Hoffman pretty well in DeMetrious Nicholson. But do they have enough guys to cover Ridley, Apo, Falslev, and company? Can Hill actually find those guys down the field?
Virginia's front seven can be vulnerable, they are playing a lot of young players, learning a new system. However, BYU offensive lines have typically struggled opening holes against any BCS conference front sevens. Can a new coach, a new attitude, and a new system change years of historical performance and take advantage of a lack of depth and experience?
A new QB will take the field for Virginia, mobile, and much improved. 2 years ago, he was a mediocre QB, but now another season on campus, soaking up knowledge, working on his reads and throws. Don't be comforted by the fact that Watford, as a true freshmen, didn't throw the ball particularly well on a bad team. BYU can expect him to complete 55-65% of his passes on this day. In his first game of the year, Fairchild will find some easy throws for him early on to get his confidence up. I would expect a lot of early screens, taking advantage of big cushions by new and inexperienced CBs for BYU. Who will play with confidence in the 3rd Quarter: Watford or BYU's secondary? That might decide it.
Virginia will bring a lot of smaller, shiftier RBs. They will be difficult to find behind the Virginia OL and even more difficult to get to the ground once they are found. Can the DL eat up the Virginia OL and give the LBs a better shot to find those guys? Will the LBs bring them down on first contact after a camp with not a lot of hitting?
I think BYU has enough to get it done but I don't expect a big blowout like many BYU fans do. BYU doesn't typically do that in season openers, against BCS opponents, on the road. I'm not sold on Hill restoring a massive scoring machine in his first game as a sophomore. I don't believe BYU's front 7 will be as strong as last year's and they will not shut down the run like last season, and BYU fans across the board expect a secondary not quite as good. As result, I expect a few more points this game than Greg Wrubell. I'll go with BYU beating Virginia by 6 points, 26-20.
Saturday, August 31, 2013
Friday, August 30, 2013
Why I Love College Football (And Now Notre Dame)
I took my usual walk home from campus on Friday afternoon. On a typical Friday, there may be a few unlucky students with Friday afternoon classes roaming around. Today, however, there was an almost audible buzz that I could hear in the bustle of thousands of additional visitors. It wasn't just any Friday: it was Football Friday. They were surrounding the stadium, walking towards Touchdown Jesus, and taking pictures at every stop. Many of them were reconnecting with the campus they once called home, the place they once called "Our Lady" in French, that they now refer to as "Nourishing Mother" in Latin.
As I took my usual pathway home in a state of peace, I saw that silent crowds had gathered around statues of Jesus and Notre Dame Founder Father Edward Sorin, lining the many walkways between them and the Golden Dome. I heard a whistle from the drum major, immediately followed by the sound of 100 individual voices, in unison as one voice, yell: IRISH. This was the first group cheer I had heard this season. It got my heart pumping.
I had cleared through the crowd and was continuing on my walk, staring up at the Golden Dome glistening in the soft summer sun. A few more whistles were immediately followed by the intro to the Notre Dame Victory March.
It was at that moment that it happened. First a slight chill up my spine, and then goose bumps consumed my entire being as the familiar tune was played in a way that only this marching band can make it sound. In this moment, college football, in all its purity, tradition, and spirit flooded me. The game is forever a part of me and I felt elated to be so close to it.
But it wasn't the tranquility of a walk through just any beautiful campus, or the observing of the comings and goings of thousands of fans inaudibly cheering any team through their attire, or the sound of any university band that made this moment special. I was walking toward the Golden Dome, clad in my own green shamrock-covered ND shirt, and hearing the University of Notre Dame marching band play my song.
This was not just a moment of clarity about college football, but it was the moment I knew for certain that the Fighting Irish had etched their logo on my very soul. I grew up a non-believer in the 'Burbs of Chicago in the 1990's, rooting on my Northwestern Wildcats, looking for any reason to head to Ryan Field to watch a team that always outperformed based on its talent, a team that occasionally ended up in the top 25 without ever having top 25 talent. Notre Dame was the exact opposite in my mind.
But today I felt what I never thought I could, what I never did even last season as I fell in love with the 2012 Irish Football team and its players. I understood in a deeper way than ever before that Notre Dame cares more about what really matters than it does about the business of football. Yes, they have participated in the business and had a lucrative go at it.
As I walked past the Basilica of the Sacred Heart, I realized that just 20 hours later, a group of young men would assemble there to hold communion with our Lord. These men are the latest in a long line of greats to play to this game for this university. But the game is greater than any single one of them. And what they will do in that sacred edifice on Saturday is bigger than the game. On the walls below the entry it reads: God. Country. Notre Dame.
That is the essence of what Notre Dame teaches them: there is more. These young men are not only held to the same standard as other students, but, in many regards, they are held to a higher standard. They are not hidden in the easiest majors, poor judgment is met with a just punishment, and there are no free passes. A few hundred miles south of here, schools preach (or at least practice) exactly the opposite. While this may make it difficult for the Irish to win on football's biggest stage again, the university understands and protects what matters: God. Country. Notre Dame.
As I walked further, I approached the Grotto and saw scores of people lining up to light a candle for their Irish. In the distance, I heard the sweet, soft tones of a man, wearing a plaid skirt, playing the bagpipes. I again gushed with affection for the great game of college football. No other reason or venue exists for such a spectacle: people asking God to intervene in a game while a man wears a dress and yet attracts people's attention for an entirely different reason.
What I failed to understand in my youth is that Notre Dame does many things right in college football. Their stadium has been renovated and expanded, but it has never changed what it is. It is uncluttered and unadorned with advertisements. The grass is the same natural green that Rockne coached on, the Four Horsemen galloped on, and the ball was first thrown the "other direction" on. Generations of players won championships, Heisman trophies, and accolades over the course of decades in front of the same bleachers, absent of the luxury that NFL or newer college stadiums enjoy. Its scoreboard is traditional, familiar, and without the burdens of a jumbotron. Notre Dame Stadium stands as a true memorial to the legends who built a sport through generations of success and class.
As thousands descend on South Bend this weekend, coming to cheer for their Irish, and not against their opponent (unless it's Michigan or USC), I realize why they came, and why they keep coming back. It is the same reason I will keep coming back. Notre Dame represents the greatness of the past and the path of hope for the future. The Irish aren't building a football program, they are building men, and teaching them hard lessons at times. They want to graduate men that understand their years at Notre Dame were about more than football; they were about more than NBC, Touchdown Jesus, and NFL prospects; they were about life and an understanding that the world needs them to truly be men. God. Country. Notre Dame.
As I took my usual pathway home in a state of peace, I saw that silent crowds had gathered around statues of Jesus and Notre Dame Founder Father Edward Sorin, lining the many walkways between them and the Golden Dome. I heard a whistle from the drum major, immediately followed by the sound of 100 individual voices, in unison as one voice, yell: IRISH. This was the first group cheer I had heard this season. It got my heart pumping.
I had cleared through the crowd and was continuing on my walk, staring up at the Golden Dome glistening in the soft summer sun. A few more whistles were immediately followed by the intro to the Notre Dame Victory March.
It was at that moment that it happened. First a slight chill up my spine, and then goose bumps consumed my entire being as the familiar tune was played in a way that only this marching band can make it sound. In this moment, college football, in all its purity, tradition, and spirit flooded me. The game is forever a part of me and I felt elated to be so close to it.
But it wasn't the tranquility of a walk through just any beautiful campus, or the observing of the comings and goings of thousands of fans inaudibly cheering any team through their attire, or the sound of any university band that made this moment special. I was walking toward the Golden Dome, clad in my own green shamrock-covered ND shirt, and hearing the University of Notre Dame marching band play my song.
This was not just a moment of clarity about college football, but it was the moment I knew for certain that the Fighting Irish had etched their logo on my very soul. I grew up a non-believer in the 'Burbs of Chicago in the 1990's, rooting on my Northwestern Wildcats, looking for any reason to head to Ryan Field to watch a team that always outperformed based on its talent, a team that occasionally ended up in the top 25 without ever having top 25 talent. Notre Dame was the exact opposite in my mind.
But today I felt what I never thought I could, what I never did even last season as I fell in love with the 2012 Irish Football team and its players. I understood in a deeper way than ever before that Notre Dame cares more about what really matters than it does about the business of football. Yes, they have participated in the business and had a lucrative go at it.
As I walked past the Basilica of the Sacred Heart, I realized that just 20 hours later, a group of young men would assemble there to hold communion with our Lord. These men are the latest in a long line of greats to play to this game for this university. But the game is greater than any single one of them. And what they will do in that sacred edifice on Saturday is bigger than the game. On the walls below the entry it reads: God. Country. Notre Dame.
That is the essence of what Notre Dame teaches them: there is more. These young men are not only held to the same standard as other students, but, in many regards, they are held to a higher standard. They are not hidden in the easiest majors, poor judgment is met with a just punishment, and there are no free passes. A few hundred miles south of here, schools preach (or at least practice) exactly the opposite. While this may make it difficult for the Irish to win on football's biggest stage again, the university understands and protects what matters: God. Country. Notre Dame.
As I walked further, I approached the Grotto and saw scores of people lining up to light a candle for their Irish. In the distance, I heard the sweet, soft tones of a man, wearing a plaid skirt, playing the bagpipes. I again gushed with affection for the great game of college football. No other reason or venue exists for such a spectacle: people asking God to intervene in a game while a man wears a dress and yet attracts people's attention for an entirely different reason.
What I failed to understand in my youth is that Notre Dame does many things right in college football. Their stadium has been renovated and expanded, but it has never changed what it is. It is uncluttered and unadorned with advertisements. The grass is the same natural green that Rockne coached on, the Four Horsemen galloped on, and the ball was first thrown the "other direction" on. Generations of players won championships, Heisman trophies, and accolades over the course of decades in front of the same bleachers, absent of the luxury that NFL or newer college stadiums enjoy. Its scoreboard is traditional, familiar, and without the burdens of a jumbotron. Notre Dame Stadium stands as a true memorial to the legends who built a sport through generations of success and class.
As thousands descend on South Bend this weekend, coming to cheer for their Irish, and not against their opponent (unless it's Michigan or USC), I realize why they came, and why they keep coming back. It is the same reason I will keep coming back. Notre Dame represents the greatness of the past and the path of hope for the future. The Irish aren't building a football program, they are building men, and teaching them hard lessons at times. They want to graduate men that understand their years at Notre Dame were about more than football; they were about more than NBC, Touchdown Jesus, and NFL prospects; they were about life and an understanding that the world needs them to truly be men. God. Country. Notre Dame.
BYU 2013 Prediction
The Offense
As tempting as it is to say that Taysom Hill is "the real deal" and will resurrect BYU's chances at a special season, let's remember a few things. 1) He is just a sophomore with limited experience. 2) He is coming off a major injury. 3) He just learned a totally new offense. 4) He has a revamped offensive line, several guys of whom went to their first practice just 3 weeks ago. 5) He will face some tough defenses this season. Now I believe Taysom will have a good season and can pull BYU out of some difficult spots. But let's not call him the savior of BYU football. He is an upgrade from Riley Nelson, but there's a lot of moving parts to his personnel, his offense, and his coaching staff.
I suspect BYU fans will be invigorated by the restoration of the big play to the BYU offense. I think BYU will have a lot more plays of over 20 yards than there have been the past few years. In Anae's first stint as OC at BYU, 3rd and 9 was not a terrifying down b/c seemingly most of BYU's successful pass plays weren't for more yards than that anyway. The hurry-up scheme that Anae is bring has potential, particularly in the run game, to allow for bigger plays than usual.
However, the flip side is that BYU will probably see a lot fewer methodical drives. Where BYU consistently gained 3-5 yards on running plays, I suspect we'll see a lot more going for 0-2 yards, and then some corresponding 5-7 yard rushes to keep the average about the same. It can be a frustrating brand of football to watch at times. It also puts a lot more pressure on Taysom Hill in constant longer distance situations.
Still, if the offense can stay healthy, and the OL can figure it out, the offense will be significantly better than last year's version, which clearly held BYU back. After averaging 28 points/game last season, I actually suspect a better offense will probably hold pat on points per game. The 28 ppg came because of 5 games with over 40 points. I don't see a lot of potential for BYU to score 40 points on this season's schedule.
The Defense
There are issues at defensive line. I've had concerns all along about that. Yes, the starters are probably quite good, but they can't play all 65-75 plays each game. They can play 50, maybe, and even that is probably pushing limits of health and fatigue. Ideally, Bronco would probably rather see that number about 40 for his starters, maximum. But Bronco clearly doesn't trust the guys behind them. If Texas or Utah roll into town committed to running the football, are there enough bodies with enough stamina to stop them cold for 4 quarters? I think the answer is no. So let's hope they don't do that.
The LBs are only as good as the DL in BYU's scheme. If the DL don't eat up 4 or 5 blockers, the backers won't have the same ability to make plays. So, when the starters are in and fresh, I suspect that the LBs will be just fine. I'll be curious to monitor BYU's scoring by quarters, if the D gives up more points after halftime than before.
The DBs should be serviceable. The safeties are good. There are capable backups there too. The corners certainly aren't worse than what BYU had in 2008, where BYU won 10 games. They probably won't see a lot to test them in isolation, but in zone coverage down the field, they will have some opportunities to get burned.
As a whole, the defense shouldn't be bad, but I wouldn't look at this D on paper and say it will be a great defense. It can be good, but it might only be above average. It's a possibility. I think the defensive points/game will move up from that 14 ppg from last season. It could approach 21, but my guess is it will hover between 17-20.
Outlook
Taysom Hill will be a good, but let's keep it real about him. The fast-break offense will cause some frustration for him and will put him in some difficult situations. In some of those situations, he will be great, in others, he will be a sophomore. It's the nature of the beast. All of his coaching and improving didn't take place in vacuum: other teams were practicing and receiving coaching too. While Taysom Hill might be good, he will see some good defenses that may have him running for his life.
BYU figures to play in a lot of close games this season. My guess is they'll have between 6-8 games decided by a single score, a single play, or a single kick and how Taysom, the D, and Justin Sorensen perform in those situations will determine whether BYU wins 6 or 11 or anywhere in between. Vegas had the O/U on BYU wins at 8.5 last I checked and right now, I'm LEANING to the Under as I give them 8 wins.
A strong showing against Virginia might move me up to 9, but I don't expect that strong of a showing. I really do believe in baby steps for this offense and for the secondary and DL. Additionally, BYU doesn't tend to blow anyone out on the road early in the season. The last time BYU scored more than 21 points in a road game in September was in 2009 against Tulane. So for those looking for a lot of fireworks, I fear you'll be disappointed until probably October. I don't see BYU dropping 35+ points until the Middle Tennessee game at the absolute earliest, but it's entirely possible it might not be until Georgia Tech, or even Idaho State...and I'm not sure BYU does that in a road game until Nevada.
BYU 8-4. I hope I'm wrong.
As tempting as it is to say that Taysom Hill is "the real deal" and will resurrect BYU's chances at a special season, let's remember a few things. 1) He is just a sophomore with limited experience. 2) He is coming off a major injury. 3) He just learned a totally new offense. 4) He has a revamped offensive line, several guys of whom went to their first practice just 3 weeks ago. 5) He will face some tough defenses this season. Now I believe Taysom will have a good season and can pull BYU out of some difficult spots. But let's not call him the savior of BYU football. He is an upgrade from Riley Nelson, but there's a lot of moving parts to his personnel, his offense, and his coaching staff.
I suspect BYU fans will be invigorated by the restoration of the big play to the BYU offense. I think BYU will have a lot more plays of over 20 yards than there have been the past few years. In Anae's first stint as OC at BYU, 3rd and 9 was not a terrifying down b/c seemingly most of BYU's successful pass plays weren't for more yards than that anyway. The hurry-up scheme that Anae is bring has potential, particularly in the run game, to allow for bigger plays than usual.
However, the flip side is that BYU will probably see a lot fewer methodical drives. Where BYU consistently gained 3-5 yards on running plays, I suspect we'll see a lot more going for 0-2 yards, and then some corresponding 5-7 yard rushes to keep the average about the same. It can be a frustrating brand of football to watch at times. It also puts a lot more pressure on Taysom Hill in constant longer distance situations.
Still, if the offense can stay healthy, and the OL can figure it out, the offense will be significantly better than last year's version, which clearly held BYU back. After averaging 28 points/game last season, I actually suspect a better offense will probably hold pat on points per game. The 28 ppg came because of 5 games with over 40 points. I don't see a lot of potential for BYU to score 40 points on this season's schedule.
The Defense
There are issues at defensive line. I've had concerns all along about that. Yes, the starters are probably quite good, but they can't play all 65-75 plays each game. They can play 50, maybe, and even that is probably pushing limits of health and fatigue. Ideally, Bronco would probably rather see that number about 40 for his starters, maximum. But Bronco clearly doesn't trust the guys behind them. If Texas or Utah roll into town committed to running the football, are there enough bodies with enough stamina to stop them cold for 4 quarters? I think the answer is no. So let's hope they don't do that.
The LBs are only as good as the DL in BYU's scheme. If the DL don't eat up 4 or 5 blockers, the backers won't have the same ability to make plays. So, when the starters are in and fresh, I suspect that the LBs will be just fine. I'll be curious to monitor BYU's scoring by quarters, if the D gives up more points after halftime than before.
The DBs should be serviceable. The safeties are good. There are capable backups there too. The corners certainly aren't worse than what BYU had in 2008, where BYU won 10 games. They probably won't see a lot to test them in isolation, but in zone coverage down the field, they will have some opportunities to get burned.
As a whole, the defense shouldn't be bad, but I wouldn't look at this D on paper and say it will be a great defense. It can be good, but it might only be above average. It's a possibility. I think the defensive points/game will move up from that 14 ppg from last season. It could approach 21, but my guess is it will hover between 17-20.
Outlook
Taysom Hill will be a good, but let's keep it real about him. The fast-break offense will cause some frustration for him and will put him in some difficult situations. In some of those situations, he will be great, in others, he will be a sophomore. It's the nature of the beast. All of his coaching and improving didn't take place in vacuum: other teams were practicing and receiving coaching too. While Taysom Hill might be good, he will see some good defenses that may have him running for his life.
BYU figures to play in a lot of close games this season. My guess is they'll have between 6-8 games decided by a single score, a single play, or a single kick and how Taysom, the D, and Justin Sorensen perform in those situations will determine whether BYU wins 6 or 11 or anywhere in between. Vegas had the O/U on BYU wins at 8.5 last I checked and right now, I'm LEANING to the Under as I give them 8 wins.
A strong showing against Virginia might move me up to 9, but I don't expect that strong of a showing. I really do believe in baby steps for this offense and for the secondary and DL. Additionally, BYU doesn't tend to blow anyone out on the road early in the season. The last time BYU scored more than 21 points in a road game in September was in 2009 against Tulane. So for those looking for a lot of fireworks, I fear you'll be disappointed until probably October. I don't see BYU dropping 35+ points until the Middle Tennessee game at the absolute earliest, but it's entirely possible it might not be until Georgia Tech, or even Idaho State...and I'm not sure BYU does that in a road game until Nevada.
BYU 8-4. I hope I'm wrong.
Thursday, August 29, 2013
Utah State at Utah Reaction
Just a couple of quick thoughts before I head to bed (I hate the Eastern Time Zone!). Also, I should have stuck with my 4-point Utah win prediction...I threw a pre-game jinx on Utah State and I apologize to Aggies fans everywhere. Both of you.
Vintage Utah
That game reminded me a lot about the 2008 Utes (without an elite defense). They won a few games that season they had no business winning. But they used the following formula to do it: capitalize on opponent mistakes, have a kicker that's not a head case and can make positive plays, have a punter that can flip field position, and take a risk when there's a sense of momentum change. They won. That was what Utah did in 2008 time and time again.
There was life in the stadium. There was excitement in the air. As my wife always says: the Utes are a much more fun team to watch than BYU. They have big plays, there's a lot of emotion, and they always have a trick up their sleeve.
Trouble Ahead?
Yes, they had to rely on big plays. Yes, they only had two possessions longer than 4 minutes (the last two of the game when they were TRYING to run clock). That's not abnormal for hurry-up offenses, but Utah is not one of those. Two of their scoring drives came after defensive penalties extended drives that would have been punts. Those are issues. Not to take anything away from Utah State, but that was not anything like the offensive lines the Utes will see down the road. That was the smallest DL Utah will see as well, and the Utes averaged less than 4/carry. Utah had three 3 and outs in the first half in 7 possessions (and would have had one more but for a penalty). And this wasn't a game where Utah State just wanted it more, and so was able to hang with the Utes. By all accounts, the Utes wanted this every bit as much as the Aggies after last season's loss that derailed the Utes' season. Utah will get better. These issues may not hold week after week. But, again, no offense to Utah State, but there are 7 games that theoretically provide a bigger challenge on the schedule. They host Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State and play road games at BYU, Arizona, USC, and Oregon.
Utah State not buried
Yes, if Utah has the long season that might be possible (but would have been definite with a loss tonight), then losing to a 5-7 team could hurt them. However, they still have chances to prove their mettle against USC (on the road), San Jose State (road) BYU, Boise State, and potentially an MWC title game. If they can successfully survive the grind and churn out 9-11 wins, I think any observer would have to say this new coach ain't half bad...and Chuckie Keeton is amazing. On the flip side, these first 7 games are unlike any stretch of 7 games they've ever had in the history of their program.
I saw good things. They did get a little outcoached late in the third quarter with the hurry up drive, onside kick, and another hurry-up drive. But I think the highlight of the night for me was watching this firs-time head coach explain the rules to the Pac 12 officiating crew, who made a couple of Pac 12 officiating calls. Still, Gary Anderson would have won that game.
Vintage Utah
That game reminded me a lot about the 2008 Utes (without an elite defense). They won a few games that season they had no business winning. But they used the following formula to do it: capitalize on opponent mistakes, have a kicker that's not a head case and can make positive plays, have a punter that can flip field position, and take a risk when there's a sense of momentum change. They won. That was what Utah did in 2008 time and time again.
There was life in the stadium. There was excitement in the air. As my wife always says: the Utes are a much more fun team to watch than BYU. They have big plays, there's a lot of emotion, and they always have a trick up their sleeve.
Trouble Ahead?
Yes, they had to rely on big plays. Yes, they only had two possessions longer than 4 minutes (the last two of the game when they were TRYING to run clock). That's not abnormal for hurry-up offenses, but Utah is not one of those. Two of their scoring drives came after defensive penalties extended drives that would have been punts. Those are issues. Not to take anything away from Utah State, but that was not anything like the offensive lines the Utes will see down the road. That was the smallest DL Utah will see as well, and the Utes averaged less than 4/carry. Utah had three 3 and outs in the first half in 7 possessions (and would have had one more but for a penalty). And this wasn't a game where Utah State just wanted it more, and so was able to hang with the Utes. By all accounts, the Utes wanted this every bit as much as the Aggies after last season's loss that derailed the Utes' season. Utah will get better. These issues may not hold week after week. But, again, no offense to Utah State, but there are 7 games that theoretically provide a bigger challenge on the schedule. They host Oregon State, UCLA, Stanford, Arizona State and play road games at BYU, Arizona, USC, and Oregon.
Utah State not buried
Yes, if Utah has the long season that might be possible (but would have been definite with a loss tonight), then losing to a 5-7 team could hurt them. However, they still have chances to prove their mettle against USC (on the road), San Jose State (road) BYU, Boise State, and potentially an MWC title game. If they can successfully survive the grind and churn out 9-11 wins, I think any observer would have to say this new coach ain't half bad...and Chuckie Keeton is amazing. On the flip side, these first 7 games are unlike any stretch of 7 games they've ever had in the history of their program.
I saw good things. They did get a little outcoached late in the third quarter with the hurry up drive, onside kick, and another hurry-up drive. But I think the highlight of the night for me was watching this firs-time head coach explain the rules to the Pac 12 officiating crew, who made a couple of Pac 12 officiating calls. Still, Gary Anderson would have won that game.
Utah State at Utah
My dad thinks Utah blows out the Aggies, two TDs or more. I think it'll be a close game. I think it'll be tough for Utah to prevent Utah State under 20 points. Initially, I thought Utah would muster enough big plays and the defense would play well enough to pull it out. Utah should be a much better team simply as a result of where they've been, BCS wins, Pac 12 affiliation, and the recruiting bump that comes from those events.
Utah State has a lot of experience on O. Having a new coach worries me a bit, especially b/c this will be one of the biggest crowds they'll see this season. The Utes are amped for revenge after last year's loss basically led to a train wreck of a season.
Given my dad's confidence in Utah, I'll change my pick from 24-20 Utah and give Utah State a late game-winning TD. Utah State 27, Utah 24.
Utah State has a lot of experience on O. Having a new coach worries me a bit, especially b/c this will be one of the biggest crowds they'll see this season. The Utes are amped for revenge after last year's loss basically led to a train wreck of a season.
Given my dad's confidence in Utah, I'll change my pick from 24-20 Utah and give Utah State a late game-winning TD. Utah State 27, Utah 24.
Wednesday, August 28, 2013
Notre Dame 2013 Prediction
After spring ball, even with Everett Golson still as the starting QB, I looked at Notre Dame as a 9-3 type of team in 2013. The schedule wasn't overwhelming, but I thought the team would take a step back this season before launching ahead in 2014. They lost a lot of leadership and almost all of the offensive firepower (minus Golson). After Golson was removed from the university, I actually didn't think it would change the outcome of the season that much. To be honest, for a lot of the season, Golson made as many big mistakes as he did big plays. So, in my opinion, it is probably close enough to a wash to replace the young but agile Golson with the seasoned but statue-like Rees.
After working through a statistical model to rate the teams and after looking at the schedule a little more closely, it seemed a lot more manageable for Notre Dame to return to a BCS game in 2013 with 10 or 11 wins.
The Schedule
There are a few natural groupings in ND's schedule. There should be blowouts (Temple, Air Force, and Navy), games that will challenge but end in a comfortable ND victory (Purdue, Pittsburgh, BYU), games that will be a challenge and I give a slight edge to ND (Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, USC), and a game that ND will lose (Stanford). It's definitely a manageable schedule for what should be a good team.
The O
My biggest concern for ND in the offseason was RB and WR. Occasionally, RBs have stellar freshmen seasons, but typically, because of the brutality of the position, freshmen can't carry large loads at RB. ND has one or two frosh that will have to HELP shoulder the load. There is certainly some talent at RB, but it's young, it's unproven, and they won't have a mobile QB to take some of the burden off of them. Freshmen tend to fare better at WR. There are fewer hits and significantly less contact. Weight isn't as important for durability. Speed, height, jumping ability probably won't change significantly over 4 years, so why couldn't freshmen be effective? Notre Dame has some big, fast WRs with good hands. I was very impressed with what I saw out of Corey Robinson and DaVaris Daniels (sophomore) this fall. TJ Jones was a solid contributor last season (when Golson was in the game, not so much when Rees was), even if he is a bit small. Rees will probably target Daniels, Robinson, and Daniel Smith.
The OL will certainly be up to snuff in most of the games. I worry a little bit about Michigan State's, Oklahoma's, and Stanford's front 7 and the challenge they will present to the Irish OL. They have time to experience growing pains before those games though.
The D
3 key defenders graduated from last season's team: Manti, Zeke Motta, and Kapron Lewis-Moore. Since then, Danny Spond's career ended and back-up DL Tony Springmann injured his knee. After KLM left, I think a lot of ND folks wondered if Sheldon Day could fill the void, and it appears it will have to be a committee effort. Sheldon isn't as big, strong, or agile as KLM, and with some inexperience in the LBs behind them, ND can't afford a big dropoff. I still see this as the big issue facing the Irish, especially against Michigan State and Stanford.
LB is also a potentially thin position group too. True frosh Jaylon Smith was announced as the starting OLB after the retirement of Danny Spond. He was the #1 recruit at his position, but it's very rare for freshmen to be standouts at LB. Prince Shembo and Dan Fox bring back a lot of experience and can help the young guy grow up. He gets one game under his belt before Michigan will test him in every way they can.
The Corners were a surprising bright spot for ND last season. They had a lot of injuries preseason, so now they have a lot of experience and competition. From what I saw of the DBs this fall, they are physical, cover well, and play the ball extremely well. The Irish will need them to be very good in pass coverage so LBs can focus more on run defense. Oklahoma is really the only pass heavy O they will be tested by. BYU throws the ball around and could present a challenge there, but a bend-but-don't-break defense with physical corners should be able to neutralize their WRs in the red zone.
Outlook
Irish haters will be out in full force again this season, but I believe the Irish will win 10 or 11 games and receive/earn an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game in January. With Golson, I would have leaned on the high side and given ND 11 wins. I think there are one or two games THIS season where the Irish could have benefited from his big plays. With Rees, whom I never booed last year (though maybe that's just a sign that I'm not a true Notre Dame fan), I'd say his inability to move around/extend plays with his feet might hurt ND's chances against OU, ASU, and USC, and they'll drop one of those games on their way to a 10-2 season and a BCS berth.
After working through a statistical model to rate the teams and after looking at the schedule a little more closely, it seemed a lot more manageable for Notre Dame to return to a BCS game in 2013 with 10 or 11 wins.
The Schedule
There are a few natural groupings in ND's schedule. There should be blowouts (Temple, Air Force, and Navy), games that will challenge but end in a comfortable ND victory (Purdue, Pittsburgh, BYU), games that will be a challenge and I give a slight edge to ND (Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Arizona State, USC), and a game that ND will lose (Stanford). It's definitely a manageable schedule for what should be a good team.
The O
My biggest concern for ND in the offseason was RB and WR. Occasionally, RBs have stellar freshmen seasons, but typically, because of the brutality of the position, freshmen can't carry large loads at RB. ND has one or two frosh that will have to HELP shoulder the load. There is certainly some talent at RB, but it's young, it's unproven, and they won't have a mobile QB to take some of the burden off of them. Freshmen tend to fare better at WR. There are fewer hits and significantly less contact. Weight isn't as important for durability. Speed, height, jumping ability probably won't change significantly over 4 years, so why couldn't freshmen be effective? Notre Dame has some big, fast WRs with good hands. I was very impressed with what I saw out of Corey Robinson and DaVaris Daniels (sophomore) this fall. TJ Jones was a solid contributor last season (when Golson was in the game, not so much when Rees was), even if he is a bit small. Rees will probably target Daniels, Robinson, and Daniel Smith.
The OL will certainly be up to snuff in most of the games. I worry a little bit about Michigan State's, Oklahoma's, and Stanford's front 7 and the challenge they will present to the Irish OL. They have time to experience growing pains before those games though.
The D
3 key defenders graduated from last season's team: Manti, Zeke Motta, and Kapron Lewis-Moore. Since then, Danny Spond's career ended and back-up DL Tony Springmann injured his knee. After KLM left, I think a lot of ND folks wondered if Sheldon Day could fill the void, and it appears it will have to be a committee effort. Sheldon isn't as big, strong, or agile as KLM, and with some inexperience in the LBs behind them, ND can't afford a big dropoff. I still see this as the big issue facing the Irish, especially against Michigan State and Stanford.
LB is also a potentially thin position group too. True frosh Jaylon Smith was announced as the starting OLB after the retirement of Danny Spond. He was the #1 recruit at his position, but it's very rare for freshmen to be standouts at LB. Prince Shembo and Dan Fox bring back a lot of experience and can help the young guy grow up. He gets one game under his belt before Michigan will test him in every way they can.
The Corners were a surprising bright spot for ND last season. They had a lot of injuries preseason, so now they have a lot of experience and competition. From what I saw of the DBs this fall, they are physical, cover well, and play the ball extremely well. The Irish will need them to be very good in pass coverage so LBs can focus more on run defense. Oklahoma is really the only pass heavy O they will be tested by. BYU throws the ball around and could present a challenge there, but a bend-but-don't-break defense with physical corners should be able to neutralize their WRs in the red zone.
Outlook
Irish haters will be out in full force again this season, but I believe the Irish will win 10 or 11 games and receive/earn an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game in January. With Golson, I would have leaned on the high side and given ND 11 wins. I think there are one or two games THIS season where the Irish could have benefited from his big plays. With Rees, whom I never booed last year (though maybe that's just a sign that I'm not a true Notre Dame fan), I'd say his inability to move around/extend plays with his feet might hurt ND's chances against OU, ASU, and USC, and they'll drop one of those games on their way to a 10-2 season and a BCS berth.
University of Utah 2013 Prediction
My prediction for Utah's upcoming season, to quote Clubber Lang in Rocky III: pain!
2014 Might Be Good
I think there is reason for optimism for 2014 for the Utes. Their young offensive line will be a year older. Their young QB will have a full season under his belt. The defense isn't as deep as it has been in years' past, but a lot of young players should see action. If somehow they can keep Coach Erickson to hang around more than one year. But they haven't done that with very many OCs in recent years.
Consistent Consistency Problems on O
2013, however, I don't foresee going very well for them. They bring in yet another new offensive coordinator. They have no proven RBs on the roster and are relying almost exclusively on JC transfers to establish the running game. Those generally aren't the kind of guys that can get you 4 yards on 3rd and 3 or consistently get 5 yards on 1st and 10. The WRs, while explosive, are not the kind of guys that can lead a long, time-consuming drive down the field. With the exception of Jake Murphy, there is not a pass-catcher that can convert consistently on 3rd down. In addition, the offensive line is one of the more inexperienced ones in the country, which means it is unlikely they can consistently open big holes for the unproven RBs or give the QBs time to make big plays down the field to the WRs.
Lack of Big Plays
They are relying on the same offense that they relied on in the MWC: hit a couple of big plays a game and that's enough to win. Under Whittingham, Utah has never really had an offense that can consistently (my buzz-word to describe what's missing from Utah's offense) drive the ball down the field. In the MWC, that generally worked, but at the same time, it explains why nearly every year, they lost to one of the bottom tier teams in the conference: the big play wasn't there that particular game.
Now, in the Pac 12, the big play is there even less frequently, so the need for a consistent drive every now and again is increased significantly. In addition, the other thing the Utes had going for them in the MWC is that their defense kept them in it until the O could hit that big play. In the Pac, the opposing offenses are putting up too many points too quickly for the big play to matter. By the time Utah can hit a big play, if it comes at all, they are down 2 or 3 scores (and when a team is ahead 2 or 3 scores, they play more conservative defense making a big play less likely).
Losses by Double Digits
With more 3 and outs than usual, the D gets less rest. And it spirals downward from there. In 2 seasons in the Pac 12, Utah has lost 8 conference games BY DOUBLE DIGITS. Of 11 conference losses, 8 games sent fans to their cars long before the time expired. That's a whopping 73%. In 6 years in the MWC under K-Whit, Utah lost 4 conference games by double digits (twice to TCU, once to UNLV, and once to Wyoming) in 14 conference losses (29%).
Outlook for 2013
I don't see any reason to think this year will be any different than the last two in the Pac. If K-Whit can lose by double digits to UNLV or Wyoming, then they could get blown out by anybody in the Pac 12. I think they'll lose by double digits to (at least) Stanford, USC, and Oregon. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities to add either Oregon State, Arizona, or Arizona State to that list as well.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Utah State or BYU beat Utah. This is a team (and a fanbase) that have prided themselves on belonging in "the Pac" now, basically believing they have left MWC and in-state foes behind. Yet they are 2.5-point favorites AT HOME against former WAC member Utah State. Vegas adds 3 points to the home team, so Vegas thinks Utah State is BETTER. BYU was listed a week ago as a 7-point favorite in the game against Utah. They probably need to win both of those games to get bowl eligible. I think they'll lose at least one, if not both.
5-7, 3-6 in Pac 12
I'll call it 5 wins and 7 losses, with two of those wins coming in close contests against teams below them in the conference standings. If Utah can't actually win those 2 games, there won't be many teams below them in the conference standings!
2014 Might Be Good
I think there is reason for optimism for 2014 for the Utes. Their young offensive line will be a year older. Their young QB will have a full season under his belt. The defense isn't as deep as it has been in years' past, but a lot of young players should see action. If somehow they can keep Coach Erickson to hang around more than one year. But they haven't done that with very many OCs in recent years.
Consistent Consistency Problems on O
2013, however, I don't foresee going very well for them. They bring in yet another new offensive coordinator. They have no proven RBs on the roster and are relying almost exclusively on JC transfers to establish the running game. Those generally aren't the kind of guys that can get you 4 yards on 3rd and 3 or consistently get 5 yards on 1st and 10. The WRs, while explosive, are not the kind of guys that can lead a long, time-consuming drive down the field. With the exception of Jake Murphy, there is not a pass-catcher that can convert consistently on 3rd down. In addition, the offensive line is one of the more inexperienced ones in the country, which means it is unlikely they can consistently open big holes for the unproven RBs or give the QBs time to make big plays down the field to the WRs.
Lack of Big Plays
They are relying on the same offense that they relied on in the MWC: hit a couple of big plays a game and that's enough to win. Under Whittingham, Utah has never really had an offense that can consistently (my buzz-word to describe what's missing from Utah's offense) drive the ball down the field. In the MWC, that generally worked, but at the same time, it explains why nearly every year, they lost to one of the bottom tier teams in the conference: the big play wasn't there that particular game.
Now, in the Pac 12, the big play is there even less frequently, so the need for a consistent drive every now and again is increased significantly. In addition, the other thing the Utes had going for them in the MWC is that their defense kept them in it until the O could hit that big play. In the Pac, the opposing offenses are putting up too many points too quickly for the big play to matter. By the time Utah can hit a big play, if it comes at all, they are down 2 or 3 scores (and when a team is ahead 2 or 3 scores, they play more conservative defense making a big play less likely).
Losses by Double Digits
With more 3 and outs than usual, the D gets less rest. And it spirals downward from there. In 2 seasons in the Pac 12, Utah has lost 8 conference games BY DOUBLE DIGITS. Of 11 conference losses, 8 games sent fans to their cars long before the time expired. That's a whopping 73%. In 6 years in the MWC under K-Whit, Utah lost 4 conference games by double digits (twice to TCU, once to UNLV, and once to Wyoming) in 14 conference losses (29%).
Outlook for 2013
I don't see any reason to think this year will be any different than the last two in the Pac. If K-Whit can lose by double digits to UNLV or Wyoming, then they could get blown out by anybody in the Pac 12. I think they'll lose by double digits to (at least) Stanford, USC, and Oregon. It isn't out of the realm of possibilities to add either Oregon State, Arizona, or Arizona State to that list as well.
It wouldn't surprise me to see Utah State or BYU beat Utah. This is a team (and a fanbase) that have prided themselves on belonging in "the Pac" now, basically believing they have left MWC and in-state foes behind. Yet they are 2.5-point favorites AT HOME against former WAC member Utah State. Vegas adds 3 points to the home team, so Vegas thinks Utah State is BETTER. BYU was listed a week ago as a 7-point favorite in the game against Utah. They probably need to win both of those games to get bowl eligible. I think they'll lose at least one, if not both.
5-7, 3-6 in Pac 12
I'll call it 5 wins and 7 losses, with two of those wins coming in close contests against teams below them in the conference standings. If Utah can't actually win those 2 games, there won't be many teams below them in the conference standings!
2013 CFB Week One Predictions (Weekend)
Purdue at Cincinnati: 21-31
I don't expect either team to have a stellar season, but hey, props to a Big Ten team that will travel out of its home state before October (especially in a non-conference game against a BCS opponent)!
Rice at Texas A&M: 34-41
So Manziel has to sit a half...if the NCAA had at least given him a WHOLE game, I think Rice would actually win this one. Don't sleep on the Owls. Oh, and full disclosure, I think A&M loses 4 or 5 games this season...
Mississippi State vs. OK State: 29-35
Big XII needs every win against a BCS foe it can get this year, as perception for them has really dropped this season. I guess that's the problem with having a LOT of good teams instead of just two or three...
Syracuse vs. Penn State: 20-28
I think Penn State has another nice 8-4 season ahead of them. Props to the players for battling through a tough situation that had nothing to do with them.
NIU at Iowa: 34-24
I think NIU starts off the season with a bang, after ending last season with a dud...
UL-Lafayette at Arkansas: 20-23
I'm not quite willing to pull the trigger on the upset here, however, I will say this one would be worth watching if you happen to have ESPN3 handy at 4pm ET on Saturday.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech: 28-14
Every year Bama has a "marquee" game within the first two weeks against a beatable opponent. Va Tech fits that bill this season after a couple of overrated Big Ten patsies. When this game was scheduled, it looked like a good fit...in my opinion, though Virginia Tech has had decent records for the past 6-7 years, they have been a slow downward trend. Again, not necessarily record-wise, but they just don't seem like the same dominant team they were in the middle of last decade.
Georgia at Clemson: 21-27
I've got Georgia winning the BCS Title, so I can't pick them to lose week one! Although, if you are going to lose, week 1 is better than week 14...
LSU vs. TCU: 17-19
I'm going for the mild upset here. I anticipate LSU having a down season, by LSU standards, so why not start them off on the wrong foot...
Boise State at Washington: 20-26
This one should be fun, but I think the stadium opening affair goes the way of the home team. Mush Huskies.
Northwestern at California: 34-28
TWO Big Ten teams playing non-conference road games against BCS opponents in the SAME week? Unheard of...
Colorado vs. Colorado State: 27-31
CU just has so far to go after last year. They were downright awful. This would be a good message to send, but I think one round of spring ball and one fall camp isn't enough to push past what I expect to be a half-decent CSU squad.
Florida State at Pittsburgh: 20-10
This is the closest the Seminoles will have to a challenge until October...
I don't expect either team to have a stellar season, but hey, props to a Big Ten team that will travel out of its home state before October (especially in a non-conference game against a BCS opponent)!
Rice at Texas A&M: 34-41
So Manziel has to sit a half...if the NCAA had at least given him a WHOLE game, I think Rice would actually win this one. Don't sleep on the Owls. Oh, and full disclosure, I think A&M loses 4 or 5 games this season...
Mississippi State vs. OK State: 29-35
Big XII needs every win against a BCS foe it can get this year, as perception for them has really dropped this season. I guess that's the problem with having a LOT of good teams instead of just two or three...
Syracuse vs. Penn State: 20-28
I think Penn State has another nice 8-4 season ahead of them. Props to the players for battling through a tough situation that had nothing to do with them.
NIU at Iowa: 34-24
I think NIU starts off the season with a bang, after ending last season with a dud...
UL-Lafayette at Arkansas: 20-23
I'm not quite willing to pull the trigger on the upset here, however, I will say this one would be worth watching if you happen to have ESPN3 handy at 4pm ET on Saturday.
Alabama vs. Virginia Tech: 28-14
Every year Bama has a "marquee" game within the first two weeks against a beatable opponent. Va Tech fits that bill this season after a couple of overrated Big Ten patsies. When this game was scheduled, it looked like a good fit...in my opinion, though Virginia Tech has had decent records for the past 6-7 years, they have been a slow downward trend. Again, not necessarily record-wise, but they just don't seem like the same dominant team they were in the middle of last decade.
Georgia at Clemson: 21-27
I've got Georgia winning the BCS Title, so I can't pick them to lose week one! Although, if you are going to lose, week 1 is better than week 14...
LSU vs. TCU: 17-19
I'm going for the mild upset here. I anticipate LSU having a down season, by LSU standards, so why not start them off on the wrong foot...
Boise State at Washington: 20-26
This one should be fun, but I think the stadium opening affair goes the way of the home team. Mush Huskies.
Northwestern at California: 34-28
TWO Big Ten teams playing non-conference road games against BCS opponents in the SAME week? Unheard of...
Colorado vs. Colorado State: 27-31
CU just has so far to go after last year. They were downright awful. This would be a good message to send, but I think one round of spring ball and one fall camp isn't enough to push past what I expect to be a half-decent CSU squad.
Florida State at Pittsburgh: 20-10
This is the closest the Seminoles will have to a challenge until October...
2013 CFB Week One Predictions (Thursday/Friday)
North Carolina at South Carolina: 13-24
Spurrier always seems a little slow out of the gate, but they should be able to control UNC.
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt: 28-21
I believe this game starts the march of the Ole Miss bandwagon. I'm already on it.
Rutgers at Fresno State: 24-31
I like Fresno's ability to move the ball. Not sold on their D yet, even with Rutgers slow-pace, chip-away offense, I expect the Scarlet Knights to score often.
USC at Hawaii: 34-24
Year 2 of Norm Chow vs. Year Last of Lane Kiffin. Wish I had a better outcome for the Warriors but it's still USC. And it's still Hawaii.
Texas Tech at SMU: 38-34
Shootout, old WAC style. Glad Texas Tech manned up and played a half-decent opponent from a non-BCS league on the road in week one.
Spurrier always seems a little slow out of the gate, but they should be able to control UNC.
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt: 28-21
I believe this game starts the march of the Ole Miss bandwagon. I'm already on it.
Rutgers at Fresno State: 24-31
I like Fresno's ability to move the ball. Not sold on their D yet, even with Rutgers slow-pace, chip-away offense, I expect the Scarlet Knights to score often.
USC at Hawaii: 34-24
Year 2 of Norm Chow vs. Year Last of Lane Kiffin. Wish I had a better outcome for the Warriors but it's still USC. And it's still Hawaii.
Texas Tech at SMU: 38-34
Shootout, old WAC style. Glad Texas Tech manned up and played a half-decent opponent from a non-BCS league on the road in week one.
Tuesday, August 27, 2013
It's Game Week: Mo Predicts Stuff
So, let's sum up what I think happens in 2013:
SEC West
Manziel doesn't win the Heisman. A&M doesn't win 10 games. LSU doesn't either. Bama's biggest test in the SEC West will be Ole Miss, which plays most of its toughest SEC games at home (A&M and LSU). Everybody points to Bama at A&M as the game that decides the SEC West, but I say it's Ole Miss at Alabama. Bama will beat Texas A&M on Kyle Field by 2 TDs or more. Ole Miss might lose 2 SEC games, but that's my cap for them.
SEC East
This is NOT the year that South Carolina finally gets there. This is the year that the Georgia Bulldogs actually have a chance to dethrone Alabama in the SEC Title game.
SEC Title
I'll go out on a limb and pick Georgia to pull off a mild upset. If you are going to beat Saban in a Title Game, it better be the SEC Title game where he is "only" 4-2. In my mind, this is the only way Bama does NOT 3-peat. No team has EVER won 3 national titles in a row, so I'll go with history.
Pac 12 North
Stanford figured out how to beat an amazing Oregon offense last season. I see no reason to believe, at home this season, they won't do it again. For me, Stanford is the easy pick to win it, the question in my mind is: can they go undefeated/play in the national championship game. The game at Oregon State is, in my mind, going to be their biggest challenge of the season. Outside of Oregon State, the only Pac 12 teams on their schedule that could challenge them play at Stanford: Arizona State, Washington, Oregon.
Pac 12 South
I think, unfortunately, it is Arizona State's year. I guess it's not that unfortunate b/c it will bring an end to the failed Kiffin experiment at USC (after the failed Kiffin experiments everywhere else), but still, as classy as a guy as Todd Graham is off-the-field, he's totally classless on it He's a small-school (or bush-league) coach in a big-school league. It'll catch up to him eventually, but not this season.
Pac 12 Title
Stanford, hosting ASU for the 2nd time in 2013, wins again.
MWC West
Fresno State has 2 tricky intra-division games on the road at San Diego State and at San Jose State. If they win one, they win the West. If they win both, they could put themselves in position to get to a BCS game if they can beat the East's champion. They host Boise State on a Friday night in September. I think Fresno has what it takes to go 11-1.
MWC East
The Utah State Aggies may struggle joining a new league with a new coach. But the MWC gave them a great schedule as they host both Boise State and Colorado State, which should be the two toughest intra-division games. They do, however, have a difficult non-conference schedule to navigate and still have to play at San Jose State in cross-division action. I think the home win over Boise State gives them just enough juice to eke out a division title and chance to lose at Fresno State in the inaugural MWC Title game.
MWC Title
Well, already spilled the beans: Fresno over Utah State, a game that might get Fresno State into the BCS if they can manage a 12-1 record. With that said, I think Fresno State is probably the 3rd best team in the MWC (Boise #1, Utah State #2)...
MAC East
Bowling Green edges Ohio after beating them head-to-head.
MAC West
Northern Illinois wins the division by 2 games.
MAC Title
I'll go with an upset here (since it's probably an upset to even have them IN this game) and take Bowling Green. The MAC champ is likely 12-1, probably ranked in the top 20, but has no shot at a BCS game this season. NIU's BCS debacle last year, combined with perhaps some of the easiest schedules in the country (that includes all 3 probable champs Ohio, BG, and NIU) precludes that possibility, unless that team is 13-0 and earns an AUTOMATIC bid b/c MWC champ is only 11-2.
CUSA East
East Carolina beats Middle Tennessee at home and holds off a late-season surge (6 straight wins) from them to win the division.
CUSA West
Rice or Tulsa here is a pretty easy "last two standing" pick. I won't disagree with my model, which predicts a narrow Rice win at Tulsa in week 6.
CUSA Title
It wouldn't be out of the question to see the winner of this game ranked in the top 25, pushing for a BCS bid. I don't think they quite get there, but I'll go with East Carolina, hosting the Title Game (probably), eking out a win.
Big Ten Legends
Two-horse between Nebraska and Michigan State. I sure would love to see Sparty take it home, especially beating Nebraska in Lincoln in November, so I'll go ahead and predict that. Michigan State takes it. I would like to take this opportunity to point out that NOBODY is picking this, everyone loves Michigan (who I maintain is vastly overrated this year, talk to me about the Wolverines NEXT season) or Nebraska.
Big Ten Leaders
Only an idiot would pick someone besides Ohio State here. Wisconsin has a shot, but I think the road game in the Horseshoe undoes any chance for them. I hate to see Urban do it, but I'd have to wonder what's going on in Columbus if he didn't go 12-0 in the regular season. The toughest contest for them will be at Northwestern? No offense, I love NW, but really? (Again, this is because I think Michigan is very overrated)
Big Ten Title
I suppose anything can happen, but Urban Meyer coaching this Ohio State team is a legitimate top 5 team. Given the ease with which they should manage a not intimidating schedule, I think 13-0 is very possible and might be enough to put them in the National Championship game, which is a travesty. There are at least 10 teams that could go undefeated with this schedule.
American
I see no reason to go against my predictive model which says Louisville goes through conference play undefeated. They could lose at Cincinnati the last game of the season, but they'll have the conference title and a BCS appearance locked up two weeks prior to that anyway.
ACC Atlantic
Clemson gets Florida State at home. That win seals the deal.
ACC Coastal
I don't trust Miami or Georgia Tech to get it done. But Virginia Tech plays road games at both of those teams. By default, and under protest, I'll take Miami but I sure hope that Beamer Ball beats them down in South Beach on November 9th.
ACC Title
Clemson. No doubt about it. I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid, the writing is just on the wall.
BCS Games
This will come in a later post, as the scenarios get pretty complicated and I'd like to explain them before making my picks.
National Championship Game
Urban Meyer and Ohio State probably make it, with Stanford tripping up somewhere against a deep Pac 12 and the Buckeyes skating through a worthless Big Ten. The SEC champion definitely makes it, who I have as Georgia. Urban has a long time to prepare and he's pretty good at that. But I'll go with the underdog playing the senior QB and take Aaron Murray and Georgia over Braxton Miller and the (undisciplined by and unaccountable to their coach) Thugs of Columbus.
SEC West
Manziel doesn't win the Heisman. A&M doesn't win 10 games. LSU doesn't either. Bama's biggest test in the SEC West will be Ole Miss, which plays most of its toughest SEC games at home (A&M and LSU). Everybody points to Bama at A&M as the game that decides the SEC West, but I say it's Ole Miss at Alabama. Bama will beat Texas A&M on Kyle Field by 2 TDs or more. Ole Miss might lose 2 SEC games, but that's my cap for them.
SEC East
This is NOT the year that South Carolina finally gets there. This is the year that the Georgia Bulldogs actually have a chance to dethrone Alabama in the SEC Title game.
SEC Title
I'll go out on a limb and pick Georgia to pull off a mild upset. If you are going to beat Saban in a Title Game, it better be the SEC Title game where he is "only" 4-2. In my mind, this is the only way Bama does NOT 3-peat. No team has EVER won 3 national titles in a row, so I'll go with history.
Pac 12 North
Stanford figured out how to beat an amazing Oregon offense last season. I see no reason to believe, at home this season, they won't do it again. For me, Stanford is the easy pick to win it, the question in my mind is: can they go undefeated/play in the national championship game. The game at Oregon State is, in my mind, going to be their biggest challenge of the season. Outside of Oregon State, the only Pac 12 teams on their schedule that could challenge them play at Stanford: Arizona State, Washington, Oregon.
Pac 12 South
I think, unfortunately, it is Arizona State's year. I guess it's not that unfortunate b/c it will bring an end to the failed Kiffin experiment at USC (after the failed Kiffin experiments everywhere else), but still, as classy as a guy as Todd Graham is off-the-field, he's totally classless on it He's a small-school (or bush-league) coach in a big-school league. It'll catch up to him eventually, but not this season.
Pac 12 Title
Stanford, hosting ASU for the 2nd time in 2013, wins again.
MWC West
Fresno State has 2 tricky intra-division games on the road at San Diego State and at San Jose State. If they win one, they win the West. If they win both, they could put themselves in position to get to a BCS game if they can beat the East's champion. They host Boise State on a Friday night in September. I think Fresno has what it takes to go 11-1.
MWC East
The Utah State Aggies may struggle joining a new league with a new coach. But the MWC gave them a great schedule as they host both Boise State and Colorado State, which should be the two toughest intra-division games. They do, however, have a difficult non-conference schedule to navigate and still have to play at San Jose State in cross-division action. I think the home win over Boise State gives them just enough juice to eke out a division title and chance to lose at Fresno State in the inaugural MWC Title game.
MWC Title
Well, already spilled the beans: Fresno over Utah State, a game that might get Fresno State into the BCS if they can manage a 12-1 record. With that said, I think Fresno State is probably the 3rd best team in the MWC (Boise #1, Utah State #2)...
MAC East
Bowling Green edges Ohio after beating them head-to-head.
MAC West
Northern Illinois wins the division by 2 games.
MAC Title
I'll go with an upset here (since it's probably an upset to even have them IN this game) and take Bowling Green. The MAC champ is likely 12-1, probably ranked in the top 20, but has no shot at a BCS game this season. NIU's BCS debacle last year, combined with perhaps some of the easiest schedules in the country (that includes all 3 probable champs Ohio, BG, and NIU) precludes that possibility, unless that team is 13-0 and earns an AUTOMATIC bid b/c MWC champ is only 11-2.
CUSA East
East Carolina beats Middle Tennessee at home and holds off a late-season surge (6 straight wins) from them to win the division.
CUSA West
Rice or Tulsa here is a pretty easy "last two standing" pick. I won't disagree with my model, which predicts a narrow Rice win at Tulsa in week 6.
CUSA Title
It wouldn't be out of the question to see the winner of this game ranked in the top 25, pushing for a BCS bid. I don't think they quite get there, but I'll go with East Carolina, hosting the Title Game (probably), eking out a win.
Big Ten Legends
Two-horse between Nebraska and Michigan State. I sure would love to see Sparty take it home, especially beating Nebraska in Lincoln in November, so I'll go ahead and predict that. Michigan State takes it. I would like to take this opportunity to point out that NOBODY is picking this, everyone loves Michigan (who I maintain is vastly overrated this year, talk to me about the Wolverines NEXT season) or Nebraska.
Big Ten Leaders
Only an idiot would pick someone besides Ohio State here. Wisconsin has a shot, but I think the road game in the Horseshoe undoes any chance for them. I hate to see Urban do it, but I'd have to wonder what's going on in Columbus if he didn't go 12-0 in the regular season. The toughest contest for them will be at Northwestern? No offense, I love NW, but really? (Again, this is because I think Michigan is very overrated)
Big Ten Title
I suppose anything can happen, but Urban Meyer coaching this Ohio State team is a legitimate top 5 team. Given the ease with which they should manage a not intimidating schedule, I think 13-0 is very possible and might be enough to put them in the National Championship game, which is a travesty. There are at least 10 teams that could go undefeated with this schedule.
American
I see no reason to go against my predictive model which says Louisville goes through conference play undefeated. They could lose at Cincinnati the last game of the season, but they'll have the conference title and a BCS appearance locked up two weeks prior to that anyway.
ACC Atlantic
Clemson gets Florida State at home. That win seals the deal.
ACC Coastal
I don't trust Miami or Georgia Tech to get it done. But Virginia Tech plays road games at both of those teams. By default, and under protest, I'll take Miami but I sure hope that Beamer Ball beats them down in South Beach on November 9th.
ACC Title
Clemson. No doubt about it. I'm not drinking the Kool-Aid, the writing is just on the wall.
BCS Games
This will come in a later post, as the scenarios get pretty complicated and I'd like to explain them before making my picks.
National Championship Game
Urban Meyer and Ohio State probably make it, with Stanford tripping up somewhere against a deep Pac 12 and the Buckeyes skating through a worthless Big Ten. The SEC champion definitely makes it, who I have as Georgia. Urban has a long time to prepare and he's pretty good at that. But I'll go with the underdog playing the senior QB and take Aaron Murray and Georgia over Braxton Miller and the (undisciplined by and unaccountable to their coach) Thugs of Columbus.
Chris Badger News is True
For those that follow Utah High School football, about 3 years ago there was a pretty solid Safety recruit out of Timpview in 2009 named Chris Badger. He had offers from LSU and Notre Dame (among many others, but those were his last two choices, as he tells it), and ended up at ND. He graduated early and did spring ball with ND in 2010 before going on a mission to Ecuador.
After the coaching changes and his mission, he returned to a situation where he was not welcome. He was recruited by Charlie Weis, played Spring Ball with Brian Kelly, and came home to an entirely different type of team. Badger isn't a slow guy, particularly for a D-I safety, but ND has gone into the deep south, Texas, Florida, and everywhere in between, to get fast defensive backs at all positions.
He continued to work hard, but he made no traction with the new coaches. He wasn't even 4th string basically at this point. His mother had some recent (undisclosed) health problems, I had heard. I actually was planning to ask him if he had ever thought about transferring to BYU just this past Sunday at church, but the only time I saw him was on his way into the bishop's office. He was apparently there to get an ecclesiastical endorsement!
Anyway, he is actually on his way to Provo today. He will attempt to get an immediate waiver to play at BYU, due to his mother's health issues. I will try to find precedent for a guy transferring schools post-training camp and getting immediate clearance (particularly if the two schools play in the same season), but my guess is he will have to sit out a year and will lose a year of eligibility (since he already redshirted). There is precedent for an immediate waiver, but that transfer typically takes place in the off-season. Perhaps the timing of the transfer might make the NCAA see it as a more urgent situation and sign on to the immediate waiver. As a safety, my guess is he wouldn't see the field this year anyway, except on special teams.
So, yes, the rumors are true. Chris Badger is leaving my ward to join a ward near you!
After the coaching changes and his mission, he returned to a situation where he was not welcome. He was recruited by Charlie Weis, played Spring Ball with Brian Kelly, and came home to an entirely different type of team. Badger isn't a slow guy, particularly for a D-I safety, but ND has gone into the deep south, Texas, Florida, and everywhere in between, to get fast defensive backs at all positions.
He continued to work hard, but he made no traction with the new coaches. He wasn't even 4th string basically at this point. His mother had some recent (undisclosed) health problems, I had heard. I actually was planning to ask him if he had ever thought about transferring to BYU just this past Sunday at church, but the only time I saw him was on his way into the bishop's office. He was apparently there to get an ecclesiastical endorsement!
Anyway, he is actually on his way to Provo today. He will attempt to get an immediate waiver to play at BYU, due to his mother's health issues. I will try to find precedent for a guy transferring schools post-training camp and getting immediate clearance (particularly if the two schools play in the same season), but my guess is he will have to sit out a year and will lose a year of eligibility (since he already redshirted). There is precedent for an immediate waiver, but that transfer typically takes place in the off-season. Perhaps the timing of the transfer might make the NCAA see it as a more urgent situation and sign on to the immediate waiver. As a safety, my guess is he wouldn't see the field this year anyway, except on special teams.
So, yes, the rumors are true. Chris Badger is leaving my ward to join a ward near you!
Thursday, August 22, 2013
Moving On to Virginia
As BYU turns its practice focus from fall camp to Virginia today, I will do the same. After keeping up with Virginia's progress during camp, knowing what we know about their new coordinators (Steve Fairchild on O and Jon Tenuta on D), here is what I think I know about the 2013 Virginia squad:
Defense
The front 7 for Virginia will be aggressive and physical, albeit not very deep. It will be a good test for BYU's OL, to see if they can "go fast, go hard" against a group of active linebackers. On the flip side, the aggressive nature of a defense can lead to over-pursuit which can lead to big holes (or tackles for loss, I suspect we'll see a fair share of both in week one). Even if UVa controls the line of scrimmage early, it is unlikely that this group will be able to maintain dominance for 4 quarters. They severely lack depth however, which is always a factor early in the season. Being in game shape takes a few games.
While Jon Tenuta spent many years as a defensive backs coach at 7 different schools, this does not appear to be a very talented secondary for him to work with. They will miss tackles, particularly against physical running backs, and there are definitely plays to be made down the field in the passing game against this bunch. If Tenuta decides to play aggressive in the front 7, that leaves a lot of islands for the back 4, with Taysom's agility, quickness, and arm strength, there could be opportunities for QB scrambles and big plays down the field to the WRs.
I would be shocked if BYU, even with a new offense, didn't have at least 6-8 plays over 20 yards. I would anticipate some early struggles for the O (so be patient), as they adjust to Virginia's personnel and blitz packages. The 2nd half, however, if not the 2nd quarter, should showcase a lot of yards and, hopefully, a fair amount of points.
Offense
The Cavs feature smaller, shifty backs and WRs, and only one or two "big" receivers. I expect Fairchild to do a lot of read option with his mobile QB as well. There will be misdirection, gadget plays, and a lot of screens. He will test the discipline of the BYU DEs. Ziggy was supremely athletic but also gifted at reading plays. He could read screens, stay home on trick plays, and make plays on the zone-read, regardless of whether the ball was handed off or kept by the QB.
The Wahoos will run a lot of Pro Set, with a FB, TE, and split WRs. Fairchild loves getting the ball out to FBs in the flat and TEs across the middle. He stretches the D horizontally in the running and short passing game. When he gets the D leaning outside, he goes mid-range over the middle to TEs when safeties have bailed. I think he will put a ton of pressure on BYU's front 7 to defend every part of the field. When he is done with that, he'll take shots at the inexperienced cornerbacks on the outside and deep.
With that being said, I don't believe Virginia has a very good offensive line. There is a lot of youth and if one BYU guy (say Kaufusi or Van Noy) start making plays early, there may be occasions of missed assignments as the game wears on. With that said, I'm not sure they can block BYU's front 7 consistently for 4 quarters even if they are "on assignment," unless fatigue or injury plays a major role.
Overall
Head Coach Mike London remade his staff after last season. He brought in 2 former head coaches to help with an offense that has struggled mightily in 3 of his 4 seasons at Virginia. New OC Steve Fairchild dropped 42 on BYU his first year at CSU, but scored 23 and 10 in the last two contests against them. Defensively, Jon Tenuta is the right guy to help fix a bad defense. But he's not a miracle worker. Give him some time and it will happen, but he has minimal size and football IQ to work with. In addition, he doesn't have much depth. BYU may struggle early in this game, they may have to dig deep, but if they don't emerge victorious then I have doubts about their mental (and physical) fortitude for the season.
Defense
The front 7 for Virginia will be aggressive and physical, albeit not very deep. It will be a good test for BYU's OL, to see if they can "go fast, go hard" against a group of active linebackers. On the flip side, the aggressive nature of a defense can lead to over-pursuit which can lead to big holes (or tackles for loss, I suspect we'll see a fair share of both in week one). Even if UVa controls the line of scrimmage early, it is unlikely that this group will be able to maintain dominance for 4 quarters. They severely lack depth however, which is always a factor early in the season. Being in game shape takes a few games.
While Jon Tenuta spent many years as a defensive backs coach at 7 different schools, this does not appear to be a very talented secondary for him to work with. They will miss tackles, particularly against physical running backs, and there are definitely plays to be made down the field in the passing game against this bunch. If Tenuta decides to play aggressive in the front 7, that leaves a lot of islands for the back 4, with Taysom's agility, quickness, and arm strength, there could be opportunities for QB scrambles and big plays down the field to the WRs.
I would be shocked if BYU, even with a new offense, didn't have at least 6-8 plays over 20 yards. I would anticipate some early struggles for the O (so be patient), as they adjust to Virginia's personnel and blitz packages. The 2nd half, however, if not the 2nd quarter, should showcase a lot of yards and, hopefully, a fair amount of points.
Offense
The Cavs feature smaller, shifty backs and WRs, and only one or two "big" receivers. I expect Fairchild to do a lot of read option with his mobile QB as well. There will be misdirection, gadget plays, and a lot of screens. He will test the discipline of the BYU DEs. Ziggy was supremely athletic but also gifted at reading plays. He could read screens, stay home on trick plays, and make plays on the zone-read, regardless of whether the ball was handed off or kept by the QB.
The Wahoos will run a lot of Pro Set, with a FB, TE, and split WRs. Fairchild loves getting the ball out to FBs in the flat and TEs across the middle. He stretches the D horizontally in the running and short passing game. When he gets the D leaning outside, he goes mid-range over the middle to TEs when safeties have bailed. I think he will put a ton of pressure on BYU's front 7 to defend every part of the field. When he is done with that, he'll take shots at the inexperienced cornerbacks on the outside and deep.
With that being said, I don't believe Virginia has a very good offensive line. There is a lot of youth and if one BYU guy (say Kaufusi or Van Noy) start making plays early, there may be occasions of missed assignments as the game wears on. With that said, I'm not sure they can block BYU's front 7 consistently for 4 quarters even if they are "on assignment," unless fatigue or injury plays a major role.
Overall
Head Coach Mike London remade his staff after last season. He brought in 2 former head coaches to help with an offense that has struggled mightily in 3 of his 4 seasons at Virginia. New OC Steve Fairchild dropped 42 on BYU his first year at CSU, but scored 23 and 10 in the last two contests against them. Defensively, Jon Tenuta is the right guy to help fix a bad defense. But he's not a miracle worker. Give him some time and it will happen, but he has minimal size and football IQ to work with. In addition, he doesn't have much depth. BYU may struggle early in this game, they may have to dig deep, but if they don't emerge victorious then I have doubts about their mental (and physical) fortitude for the season.
Wednesday, August 21, 2013
BYU's Opponents as Defined by Mo's Model
So, over the summer, I took an analytical approach to preseason rankings and set up a system to rate all of the teams, one that most closely resembled my "gut" feeling. A link to the results can be found at: http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2013/06/preseason-rankings.html if you missed it.
Today, I just wanted to look at how BYU's opponents look in aggregate, with a more specific look to follow (though a more in-depth, albeit pre-camp look at UVa is available at http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2013/06/statistical-model-and-byu-opponents.html and Texas at http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2013/06/statistical-model-and-byu-opponents_24.html).
BYU was #40, with an overall rating of .563 (Alabama is an NCAA high of .727).
Virginia weighs in at #84, with a rating of .469 (basically meaning they are 10 "points" worse than BYU). My model gives them the 29th most difficult schedule, with 6 games against teams rated 40th or higher. Their only conference wins are against Maryland and Duke. Their non-conference wins are VMI and Ball State.
Texas comes in as the #4-ranked team with a rating of .717. Texas always has superior athletes (so always look good on paper) but what sets them apart this season is their experience. BYU fans probably remember some of the cast from the team that eked out a victory in Austin against Jake Heaps and the Cougars. Pretty much all of those players are still there, playing as seniors this year. The model tips towards Texas winning all of its games, though there are some one-score, one-play type of games that could go either way. The toughest game for Texas, according to the model, is at TCU (b/c OU is neutral site and Ole Miss is at home). Though BYU fans hope that BYU is the toughest game for them! The model definitely has Texas winning the Big XII.
Utah is #48 and has a .547 rating. Utah's rating is almost entirely held up by their performances in the MWC, since I used historical win totals for the last 5 years as one of the data points. The schedule is brutal, including 9 teams rated higher than them, and so the model has them falling jut short of a bowl game again. However, of note, the model has Utah playing 7 games decided by one score or less (i.e. one play) with a 2-5 record in those games. Anything can happen, so it is entirely within the realm of possibilities to see Utah bowling, if they get a few lucky breaks. As a BYU fan, I think they've had enough lucky breaks (2008 had enough of them to last a lifetime) so maybe 2-5 is about right in those games...
Middle Tennessee is better than a lot of BYU fans expect, though they (rightfully) expect BYU to win that game handily. They are #59, with a .525 rating. The model actually calls for a 9-3 record for MT, with the losses coming at North Carolina and at BYU, with a 3-point home loss (i.e. a potential win) to ECU. I personally expect more like 8-4, but the model didn't perfectly reflect my thoughts on this one. I expect a decent game between the two blue squads on a Friday night in September.
The model, in spite of Utah State's long history of anemic performance, has the 2013 Aggies rated higher than BYU at #32 with a .573 rating. The model, based on Utah State's home schedule in the MWC has them ousting Boise State (based on Aggies hosting Boise State) on their way to playing in the MWC Championship Game against Fresno State. Now, I am not sure that the model appropriately manages expectations for a first-time head coach or a conference shift very well, so perhaps it is a little optimistic for the Aggies.
Georgia Tech is also rated higher than BYU at #34 and a .569 rating. Georgia Tech, according to the model, will find themselves in a lot of close contests, including the October jaunt to Provo. After an FCS game to open the year, Georgia Tech should have 3 close games. The outcomes there may determine the collective psyche of the Bumble Bee team that shows up at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Houston is #63 at .520. Houston plays at Rice, which is its most difficult game prior to BYU. With Houston hosting the game against BYU, the model has it as a statistically even matchup, with a slight advantage to the visiting BYU Cougars.
Boise State is #24 and a .595 rating. BYU hosts the game, which makes it a statistical toss-up, slight edge to BYU. On a neutral site, Boise State would win, and a game at Boise would go towards the Broncos easier than last year's game. However, BYU gets to host and it should make for an exciting event. My model, in spite of having Boise at #24, has them playing their 5 toughest games on the road with a 1-4 record. I don't buy that, necessarily, but it doesn't bode well for anyone to play their 5 toughest games on the road (BYU fans can relate to that in 2012!).
Wisconsin is #19 with a .613 rating. They host BYU and that should play into their hands. My model has a road loss at Ohio State as the only thing keeping them out of the Big Ten Championship game. It will be interesting to see if Gary can pull off the same magic in Madison as he did in Logan.
BYU then hosts Idaho State, an FCS school that was not put into the model, but it wouldn't have been pretty for them if I had.
Notre Dame is #9 with a .650 rating. Notre Dame has a difficult, but not overly brutal schedule. They play 7 teams in my model's top 50, but one of those is overrated Michigan (I have the Wolverines at #44, though both preseason polls have them at #17: I like my placement for them better and think they will be much closer to .500 than to a Big Ten Title). Only two of those 7 are road games. The schedule lined up nicely for the Irish this season as they appear to be BCS Bowl bound, per the model (I personally saw them at 9-3 or 10-2, but after attending their practice last week, I was thoroughly impressed with the WRs, one of the 2 positions I was worried about for them, so maybe 10-2 is more likely than I initially thought...).
Nevada is #96 with a .442 rating. The model doesn't like how the year starts for Nevada, with road games at UCLA and Florida State (losses). They also play on the road against 4 of the best teams in the MWC. It doesn't look like a banner year for the Wolfpack this year.
So there you have it: a summary of what a statistical model has to say about BYU's opponents this season. There is a distinct possibility of 10 wins or 6 wins for BYU. My model takes the middle road and says 8-4. 10 days from now, we'll have a much better idea of where things are looking.
Today, I just wanted to look at how BYU's opponents look in aggregate, with a more specific look to follow (though a more in-depth, albeit pre-camp look at UVa is available at http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2013/06/statistical-model-and-byu-opponents.html and Texas at http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2013/06/statistical-model-and-byu-opponents_24.html).
BYU was #40, with an overall rating of .563 (Alabama is an NCAA high of .727).
Virginia weighs in at #84, with a rating of .469 (basically meaning they are 10 "points" worse than BYU). My model gives them the 29th most difficult schedule, with 6 games against teams rated 40th or higher. Their only conference wins are against Maryland and Duke. Their non-conference wins are VMI and Ball State.
Texas comes in as the #4-ranked team with a rating of .717. Texas always has superior athletes (so always look good on paper) but what sets them apart this season is their experience. BYU fans probably remember some of the cast from the team that eked out a victory in Austin against Jake Heaps and the Cougars. Pretty much all of those players are still there, playing as seniors this year. The model tips towards Texas winning all of its games, though there are some one-score, one-play type of games that could go either way. The toughest game for Texas, according to the model, is at TCU (b/c OU is neutral site and Ole Miss is at home). Though BYU fans hope that BYU is the toughest game for them! The model definitely has Texas winning the Big XII.
Utah is #48 and has a .547 rating. Utah's rating is almost entirely held up by their performances in the MWC, since I used historical win totals for the last 5 years as one of the data points. The schedule is brutal, including 9 teams rated higher than them, and so the model has them falling jut short of a bowl game again. However, of note, the model has Utah playing 7 games decided by one score or less (i.e. one play) with a 2-5 record in those games. Anything can happen, so it is entirely within the realm of possibilities to see Utah bowling, if they get a few lucky breaks. As a BYU fan, I think they've had enough lucky breaks (2008 had enough of them to last a lifetime) so maybe 2-5 is about right in those games...
Middle Tennessee is better than a lot of BYU fans expect, though they (rightfully) expect BYU to win that game handily. They are #59, with a .525 rating. The model actually calls for a 9-3 record for MT, with the losses coming at North Carolina and at BYU, with a 3-point home loss (i.e. a potential win) to ECU. I personally expect more like 8-4, but the model didn't perfectly reflect my thoughts on this one. I expect a decent game between the two blue squads on a Friday night in September.
The model, in spite of Utah State's long history of anemic performance, has the 2013 Aggies rated higher than BYU at #32 with a .573 rating. The model, based on Utah State's home schedule in the MWC has them ousting Boise State (based on Aggies hosting Boise State) on their way to playing in the MWC Championship Game against Fresno State. Now, I am not sure that the model appropriately manages expectations for a first-time head coach or a conference shift very well, so perhaps it is a little optimistic for the Aggies.
Georgia Tech is also rated higher than BYU at #34 and a .569 rating. Georgia Tech, according to the model, will find themselves in a lot of close contests, including the October jaunt to Provo. After an FCS game to open the year, Georgia Tech should have 3 close games. The outcomes there may determine the collective psyche of the Bumble Bee team that shows up at LaVell Edwards Stadium.
Houston is #63 at .520. Houston plays at Rice, which is its most difficult game prior to BYU. With Houston hosting the game against BYU, the model has it as a statistically even matchup, with a slight advantage to the visiting BYU Cougars.
Boise State is #24 and a .595 rating. BYU hosts the game, which makes it a statistical toss-up, slight edge to BYU. On a neutral site, Boise State would win, and a game at Boise would go towards the Broncos easier than last year's game. However, BYU gets to host and it should make for an exciting event. My model, in spite of having Boise at #24, has them playing their 5 toughest games on the road with a 1-4 record. I don't buy that, necessarily, but it doesn't bode well for anyone to play their 5 toughest games on the road (BYU fans can relate to that in 2012!).
Wisconsin is #19 with a .613 rating. They host BYU and that should play into their hands. My model has a road loss at Ohio State as the only thing keeping them out of the Big Ten Championship game. It will be interesting to see if Gary can pull off the same magic in Madison as he did in Logan.
BYU then hosts Idaho State, an FCS school that was not put into the model, but it wouldn't have been pretty for them if I had.
Notre Dame is #9 with a .650 rating. Notre Dame has a difficult, but not overly brutal schedule. They play 7 teams in my model's top 50, but one of those is overrated Michigan (I have the Wolverines at #44, though both preseason polls have them at #17: I like my placement for them better and think they will be much closer to .500 than to a Big Ten Title). Only two of those 7 are road games. The schedule lined up nicely for the Irish this season as they appear to be BCS Bowl bound, per the model (I personally saw them at 9-3 or 10-2, but after attending their practice last week, I was thoroughly impressed with the WRs, one of the 2 positions I was worried about for them, so maybe 10-2 is more likely than I initially thought...).
Nevada is #96 with a .442 rating. The model doesn't like how the year starts for Nevada, with road games at UCLA and Florida State (losses). They also play on the road against 4 of the best teams in the MWC. It doesn't look like a banner year for the Wolfpack this year.
So there you have it: a summary of what a statistical model has to say about BYU's opponents this season. There is a distinct possibility of 10 wins or 6 wins for BYU. My model takes the middle road and says 8-4. 10 days from now, we'll have a much better idea of where things are looking.
Tempering Expectations
A good friend of mine, Shane, has discovered the secret formula to approaching a BYU football season: no expectations. Fortunately for him, he discovered this prior to last season. While those who didn't do such a good job managing expectations watched the offense implode as Bronco touted his hard-working, blue-collar, "guy who just competes" QB go 5-4 as a starter. With 3 of those games decided by the fact that BYU needed a kicker who was only slightly healthier/better than its QB (and didn't have one).
Now, BYU approaches the 2013 season, with new hopes, a more difficult schedule than usual, and some concerns on both sides of the ball. Many, especially in Provo, have become enamored with the coaching changes, the "go fast, go hard" mentality, and the return of potential All Americans in Kyle Van Noy and Cody Hoffman. But there is one thing to remember: other teams had players working hard and coaches coaching hard in the offseason as well.
BYU's offense, by all accounts, should be better at getting yards than last year. Taysom Hill has a better arm than Riley Nelson. His receivers all have an additional season of experience under their belt. Jamaal Williams is bigger and stronger. The offense is designed to move faster and get more plays called each game. The yards will come, about that I have no doubt. There should be big plays too, something that was generally absent in the Riley Nelson era.
However, will the points follow?
That is where minding your expectations matters. BYU opens on the road against a lightweight of an ACC team. But it's still a road game. And it's still an ACC team. Next up is a team that has plenty of NFL-potential on D in Texas. Then, after a bye, they face the Jedi Mind Tricks of the Utah Utes. [Two years ago, you could almost hear Star Lotulelei telling Jake Heaps "you don't want that football" followed by a fumble, and then again as Heaps reached down to pick it up Star says "you don't want that football" and then again in the end zone "you want me to have that football" and, sure enough, Utah 7, BYU 0. Last year was not too different.]
None of those games are going to be easy. BYU might win 2 or 3 of them, they might even win a couple by multiple TDs, but they won't be easy. And that probably isn't the most difficult 3-game stretch of the season. Can BYU produce in the red (er, blue) zone this year? Last year, turnovers, miscues, and poor kicking cost BYU a lot of points. This season, I still worry about turnovers and miscues, particularly with so many moving parts. The O is planning to play 3-4 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 TEs, and 8-10 OL. It only takes one of them to make a mistake to cost BYU points.
My point is: manage your expectations going into the difficult schedule BYU is facing this season. It will make for a happier season. Regardless of the outcomes of the games, you will be happier and surprised at potentially positive outcomes, instead of frustrated with potentially negative ones.
I love Taysom Hill. You could tell last season that, mentally, he had it. If his knee injury didn't impact the mental edge he possessed, BYU might have a great season (assuming they at least have two bodies to play at cornerback). Heading into the season, however, expect wins against Middle Tennessee and Idaho State. Beyond that, just enjoy the ride.
Now, BYU approaches the 2013 season, with new hopes, a more difficult schedule than usual, and some concerns on both sides of the ball. Many, especially in Provo, have become enamored with the coaching changes, the "go fast, go hard" mentality, and the return of potential All Americans in Kyle Van Noy and Cody Hoffman. But there is one thing to remember: other teams had players working hard and coaches coaching hard in the offseason as well.
BYU's offense, by all accounts, should be better at getting yards than last year. Taysom Hill has a better arm than Riley Nelson. His receivers all have an additional season of experience under their belt. Jamaal Williams is bigger and stronger. The offense is designed to move faster and get more plays called each game. The yards will come, about that I have no doubt. There should be big plays too, something that was generally absent in the Riley Nelson era.
However, will the points follow?
That is where minding your expectations matters. BYU opens on the road against a lightweight of an ACC team. But it's still a road game. And it's still an ACC team. Next up is a team that has plenty of NFL-potential on D in Texas. Then, after a bye, they face the Jedi Mind Tricks of the Utah Utes. [Two years ago, you could almost hear Star Lotulelei telling Jake Heaps "you don't want that football" followed by a fumble, and then again as Heaps reached down to pick it up Star says "you don't want that football" and then again in the end zone "you want me to have that football" and, sure enough, Utah 7, BYU 0. Last year was not too different.]
None of those games are going to be easy. BYU might win 2 or 3 of them, they might even win a couple by multiple TDs, but they won't be easy. And that probably isn't the most difficult 3-game stretch of the season. Can BYU produce in the red (er, blue) zone this year? Last year, turnovers, miscues, and poor kicking cost BYU a lot of points. This season, I still worry about turnovers and miscues, particularly with so many moving parts. The O is planning to play 3-4 RBs, 6 WRs, 3 TEs, and 8-10 OL. It only takes one of them to make a mistake to cost BYU points.
My point is: manage your expectations going into the difficult schedule BYU is facing this season. It will make for a happier season. Regardless of the outcomes of the games, you will be happier and surprised at potentially positive outcomes, instead of frustrated with potentially negative ones.
I love Taysom Hill. You could tell last season that, mentally, he had it. If his knee injury didn't impact the mental edge he possessed, BYU might have a great season (assuming they at least have two bodies to play at cornerback). Heading into the season, however, expect wins against Middle Tennessee and Idaho State. Beyond that, just enjoy the ride.
Sunday, August 18, 2013
BYU's Cornerback Situation: Does It Matter?
The 1996 BYU Team
As a BYU follower since my childhood, I loved watching some of the great names for BYU in the late 80's and early 90's. The 1996 team led by Steve Sarkisian was a great team to watch with so many talented players on both sides of the ball, some of which went on to become NFL-ers, CFL-ers, coaches, etc. There was Ben Cahoon, Steve Sarkisian, James Dye, Byron Frisch, Chad Lewis, Kaipo Maguire, Itula Mili, bruiser Brian Mackenzie, Omarr Morgan (who I believe made the game-clinching pick in the Cotton Bowl), Rob Morris, Shay Muirbrook, Ethan Pochman, John Tait, among others. Even some of the young players from that team went on to have successful careers.
Since Then
Most of my adult life following BYU, however, it has been plug in the next guy and he'll be nearly as solid as the last guy. Realistically, if a 3-star recruit with no NFL future goes down, there isn't much drop off when you put in a 2-star who is hungry. There is a huge difference, however, between that and having NFL-type talent go down and replacing it with a 2-star who is hungry. Even LaVell going with "the next QB" in Kevin Feterik in 1997 didn't have nearly the same success he had with Sarkisian. Talent does make a difference when it comes to the big stage.
Plug-And-Play
BYU, for most of the years from 1996-2010, did well in the WAC and MWC with the plug-and-play method. They made their living with experienced guys who came to BYU, redshirted and started the last two years of their career after taking 3 years to learn the game and get bigger, faster, and stronger. The last 3 or 4 years for LaVell, let's not talk about Crowton, and the first few years with Bronco, that is what BYU fans got. BYU fans forgot what it meant to have great players.
Again, this was good enough to be successful in the MWC. As soon as Utah got better, as soon as TCU joined the conference, and any time BYU played a big-time opponent, BYU wasn't successful. To beat talent you need talent. To win on the road you need talent. After going 14-1 and finishing ranked #5 in 1996, Kevin Feterik lost to Washington in addition to losing road games to Rice, UTEP, and New Mexico. From 14-1 to losing to Rice, UTEP, and New Mexico in the same season.
2001 BYU
Fast-forward to Crowton's first season where he had an NFL-type QB and RB in Doman and Staley, a couple of Denney's on the DL to go with Brett Keisel. BYU won 6 road games and beat 2 BCS conference opponents. Crowton caught a lot of people by surprise, but he had a relatively easy schedule, all he needed was a little talent to hang on in games he was favored in.
Bronco's Two Most Talented Teams
Then in 2006, with John Beck, Curtis Brown, Fui Vakapuna, and 5 LBs that played professionally, they had a year where they finished in the top 15, and but for a Pac 12 official calling a bogus offensive pass interference against Arizona, would have played in a BCS game. They won at TCU, which no other BYU came close to doing in the MWC. They absolutely demolished Oregon in the Vegas Bowl. In 2009, Dennis Pitta, Max Hall, Harvey Unga, Manase Tonga, a solid OL, and a defense with more studs at LB, BYU knocks off Oklahoma and Oregon State and wins 7 games away from home. BYU went 11-2 in both of those seasons.
Talent Is Back?
Having talent matters. After watching Ziggy, Cody Hoffman, Kyle Van Noy last year, and remembering back to the "talented" seasons BYU has had from time-to-time, it becomes clear that the average BYU team is greater than the sum of its parts, but it's still only above average. The good teams, the ones with talent, become great teams. BYU fans looking at the team can clearly see that there is a difference between BYU 2012/3 and BYU 2004/5. Last year, BYU was a QB away from perhaps having a special season.
The CB Situation
BYU had, as near as we can tell, some talented and smart corners when spring ball started 6 months ago. The talented ones got hurt so the smart ones got on the field. Now, those guys are hurt too. BYU is now relying on the perennially injured Skye PoVey and Mike Hague to survive the season, because after that, they are looking at a guy who was a WR just last week. Sure, against Virginia, Middle Tennessee, Idaho State, and maybe Nevada, it isn't going to make much difference who is covering their average WRs with their average QB throwing the ball as directed by their average coaching. But BYU is putting some oft-injured 25-year old whose greatest BYU memory was an 88-yard TD run in garbage time when he was 18 against 4-star recruits with 4.4 speed and legitimate NFL prospects in a lot of those other games.
Why It Matters in 2013
The plug-and-play method that got BYU through mediocre-to-average schedules in the past won't last against this season's experienced QBs, NFL-caliber WRs, and seasoned coaching staffs. Some have said "Bronco is a defensive genius and will adjust the scheme to cover those weaknesses." I absolutely believe that statement: Bronco can do that with no trouble. He's had to do it in the past with the lack of talent in the secondary. However, at what cost does that happen? The only way to do it is to weaken the run defense. Quite simply, this season, BYU, with its current make up of corners, can't have the same D it had last season. There has to be talent. Last year, BYU had 3 potential NFL players in the secondary (Hadley got a look but didn't make it, but getting a look for a BYU CB means he's one of the best they've had in 10 years). It had 6 potential NFL-ers in the front 7. Yet, with limited talent at QB, only mustered 8 wins.
How big of a deal will the injuries be? I believe they will cost BYU at least one game. To win on the big stage, it takes talent at every position. Looking at the 1996 team, they had a great QB that could throw to quality WRs and TEs, or hand off to solid RBs to run behind a great OL. The D was bolstered by a solid DL, with LBs that could play in space or behind the line of scrimmage, and DBs that could force turnovers. It took an A effort from talented players at every single position to beat a top-15 opponent. BYU now has one position on the field that it won't get that from.
Why It Doesn't Matter in 2013
The 2013 BYU team has talent at almost every other position to compensate, talent to a level BYU fans are not accustomed to (they THINK the Cougars have had it b/c they know the names of the players, but this year it is there). The D doesn't have to be the same as last season b/c the O should be significantly better than last season. Not all hope is lost for the season. Most of the teams on BYU's schedule only throw the ball to open up the run. There are few elite QBs on the schedule that can literally pick apart the D. There are few coaches BYU will face that are willing to put the ball up 35 times, even if that is clearly BYU's weakness. It hurts, but if the offense is good, it won't destroy.
As a BYU follower since my childhood, I loved watching some of the great names for BYU in the late 80's and early 90's. The 1996 team led by Steve Sarkisian was a great team to watch with so many talented players on both sides of the ball, some of which went on to become NFL-ers, CFL-ers, coaches, etc. There was Ben Cahoon, Steve Sarkisian, James Dye, Byron Frisch, Chad Lewis, Kaipo Maguire, Itula Mili, bruiser Brian Mackenzie, Omarr Morgan (who I believe made the game-clinching pick in the Cotton Bowl), Rob Morris, Shay Muirbrook, Ethan Pochman, John Tait, among others. Even some of the young players from that team went on to have successful careers.
Since Then
Most of my adult life following BYU, however, it has been plug in the next guy and he'll be nearly as solid as the last guy. Realistically, if a 3-star recruit with no NFL future goes down, there isn't much drop off when you put in a 2-star who is hungry. There is a huge difference, however, between that and having NFL-type talent go down and replacing it with a 2-star who is hungry. Even LaVell going with "the next QB" in Kevin Feterik in 1997 didn't have nearly the same success he had with Sarkisian. Talent does make a difference when it comes to the big stage.
Plug-And-Play
BYU, for most of the years from 1996-2010, did well in the WAC and MWC with the plug-and-play method. They made their living with experienced guys who came to BYU, redshirted and started the last two years of their career after taking 3 years to learn the game and get bigger, faster, and stronger. The last 3 or 4 years for LaVell, let's not talk about Crowton, and the first few years with Bronco, that is what BYU fans got. BYU fans forgot what it meant to have great players.
Again, this was good enough to be successful in the MWC. As soon as Utah got better, as soon as TCU joined the conference, and any time BYU played a big-time opponent, BYU wasn't successful. To beat talent you need talent. To win on the road you need talent. After going 14-1 and finishing ranked #5 in 1996, Kevin Feterik lost to Washington in addition to losing road games to Rice, UTEP, and New Mexico. From 14-1 to losing to Rice, UTEP, and New Mexico in the same season.
2001 BYU
Fast-forward to Crowton's first season where he had an NFL-type QB and RB in Doman and Staley, a couple of Denney's on the DL to go with Brett Keisel. BYU won 6 road games and beat 2 BCS conference opponents. Crowton caught a lot of people by surprise, but he had a relatively easy schedule, all he needed was a little talent to hang on in games he was favored in.
Bronco's Two Most Talented Teams
Then in 2006, with John Beck, Curtis Brown, Fui Vakapuna, and 5 LBs that played professionally, they had a year where they finished in the top 15, and but for a Pac 12 official calling a bogus offensive pass interference against Arizona, would have played in a BCS game. They won at TCU, which no other BYU came close to doing in the MWC. They absolutely demolished Oregon in the Vegas Bowl. In 2009, Dennis Pitta, Max Hall, Harvey Unga, Manase Tonga, a solid OL, and a defense with more studs at LB, BYU knocks off Oklahoma and Oregon State and wins 7 games away from home. BYU went 11-2 in both of those seasons.
Talent Is Back?
Having talent matters. After watching Ziggy, Cody Hoffman, Kyle Van Noy last year, and remembering back to the "talented" seasons BYU has had from time-to-time, it becomes clear that the average BYU team is greater than the sum of its parts, but it's still only above average. The good teams, the ones with talent, become great teams. BYU fans looking at the team can clearly see that there is a difference between BYU 2012/3 and BYU 2004/5. Last year, BYU was a QB away from perhaps having a special season.
The CB Situation
BYU had, as near as we can tell, some talented and smart corners when spring ball started 6 months ago. The talented ones got hurt so the smart ones got on the field. Now, those guys are hurt too. BYU is now relying on the perennially injured Skye PoVey and Mike Hague to survive the season, because after that, they are looking at a guy who was a WR just last week. Sure, against Virginia, Middle Tennessee, Idaho State, and maybe Nevada, it isn't going to make much difference who is covering their average WRs with their average QB throwing the ball as directed by their average coaching. But BYU is putting some oft-injured 25-year old whose greatest BYU memory was an 88-yard TD run in garbage time when he was 18 against 4-star recruits with 4.4 speed and legitimate NFL prospects in a lot of those other games.
Why It Matters in 2013
The plug-and-play method that got BYU through mediocre-to-average schedules in the past won't last against this season's experienced QBs, NFL-caliber WRs, and seasoned coaching staffs. Some have said "Bronco is a defensive genius and will adjust the scheme to cover those weaknesses." I absolutely believe that statement: Bronco can do that with no trouble. He's had to do it in the past with the lack of talent in the secondary. However, at what cost does that happen? The only way to do it is to weaken the run defense. Quite simply, this season, BYU, with its current make up of corners, can't have the same D it had last season. There has to be talent. Last year, BYU had 3 potential NFL players in the secondary (Hadley got a look but didn't make it, but getting a look for a BYU CB means he's one of the best they've had in 10 years). It had 6 potential NFL-ers in the front 7. Yet, with limited talent at QB, only mustered 8 wins.
How big of a deal will the injuries be? I believe they will cost BYU at least one game. To win on the big stage, it takes talent at every position. Looking at the 1996 team, they had a great QB that could throw to quality WRs and TEs, or hand off to solid RBs to run behind a great OL. The D was bolstered by a solid DL, with LBs that could play in space or behind the line of scrimmage, and DBs that could force turnovers. It took an A effort from talented players at every single position to beat a top-15 opponent. BYU now has one position on the field that it won't get that from.
Why It Doesn't Matter in 2013
The 2013 BYU team has talent at almost every other position to compensate, talent to a level BYU fans are not accustomed to (they THINK the Cougars have had it b/c they know the names of the players, but this year it is there). The D doesn't have to be the same as last season b/c the O should be significantly better than last season. Not all hope is lost for the season. Most of the teams on BYU's schedule only throw the ball to open up the run. There are few elite QBs on the schedule that can literally pick apart the D. There are few coaches BYU will face that are willing to put the ball up 35 times, even if that is clearly BYU's weakness. It hurts, but if the offense is good, it won't destroy.
Monday, August 12, 2013
Mo's Model vs. Coach's Poll
There are a few major differences between my model of rating teams and the Coaches Poll. There are 53 teams that received at least one vote in the preseason poll. There are 18 teams rated at least 5 spots higher in the polls than my model does. There are 11 teams rated at least 5 spots lower by the coaches than I do. I agree with the coaches about Bama #1 and Ohio State #2. After that, there are no two teams that are ranked exactly the same.
My top 10 (Coaches Poll):
Alabama (1)
Ohio State (2)
Georgia (5)
Texas (15)
Stanford (4)
Oregon (3)
Ole Miss (33)
Nebraska (18)
Notre Dame (11)
Florida State (12)
The teams that I believe will have better seasons than coaches Texas, Ole Miss, Nebraska. The coaches ranked the following teams in the top 10 that I did not (where I have them ranked in parentheses): #6 A&M (29), #7 South Carolina (30), #8 Clemson (17), #9 Louisville (22), #10 Florida (18).
Other teams that the coaches rank significantly higher than I do: Michigan (17 vs. 44), UCLA (21 vs. 42), Northwestern (22 vs. 54, though I admit my model has a tough time with service academies, NW, BYU, Boise State, and Vanderbilt), Baylor (29 vs. 57), Vanderbilt (34 vs. 51), North Carolina (37 vs. 52), Tulsa (39 vs. 65), San Jose State (40 vs. 70), Kent State (46 vs. 55), and Arkansas State (53 vs. 76).
Teams that I rank significantly higher than the coaches: Miami (27 vs. 12), Northern Illinois (38 vs. 26), East Carolina (44 vs. 25), and Tennessee (49 vs. 35).
So, it appears, that the major differences revolve around ACC, SEC, and non-BCS. I think that means that my model did what I wanted it to do: quantify my gut. My gut says SEC defenses are very good, but aided by the fact that they never play good QBs, and when they do, the QBs dominate the league (see Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, and Johnny Manziel). So naturally, I would think the coaches tend to overrate the SEC. The ACC always seems to get lots of preseason publicity, but with just 2 BCS wins in 12 years...yeah, they don't seem to have what it takes. Non-BCS teams have to win 11 games to get any chance of a top 25 appearance, regardless of schedule and have to win 1 games to have any chance of a BCS game.
Anyway, it should be interesting to see who is closer. I know one thing: the coaches are always wrong in the preseason...I have yet to be proven wrong with this model...haha. Let year one begin.
My top 10 (Coaches Poll):
Alabama (1)
Ohio State (2)
Georgia (5)
Texas (15)
Stanford (4)
Oregon (3)
Ole Miss (33)
Nebraska (18)
Notre Dame (11)
Florida State (12)
The teams that I believe will have better seasons than coaches Texas, Ole Miss, Nebraska. The coaches ranked the following teams in the top 10 that I did not (where I have them ranked in parentheses): #6 A&M (29), #7 South Carolina (30), #8 Clemson (17), #9 Louisville (22), #10 Florida (18).
Other teams that the coaches rank significantly higher than I do: Michigan (17 vs. 44), UCLA (21 vs. 42), Northwestern (22 vs. 54, though I admit my model has a tough time with service academies, NW, BYU, Boise State, and Vanderbilt), Baylor (29 vs. 57), Vanderbilt (34 vs. 51), North Carolina (37 vs. 52), Tulsa (39 vs. 65), San Jose State (40 vs. 70), Kent State (46 vs. 55), and Arkansas State (53 vs. 76).
Teams that I rank significantly higher than the coaches: Miami (27 vs. 12), Northern Illinois (38 vs. 26), East Carolina (44 vs. 25), and Tennessee (49 vs. 35).
So, it appears, that the major differences revolve around ACC, SEC, and non-BCS. I think that means that my model did what I wanted it to do: quantify my gut. My gut says SEC defenses are very good, but aided by the fact that they never play good QBs, and when they do, the QBs dominate the league (see Tim Tebow, Cam Newton, and Johnny Manziel). So naturally, I would think the coaches tend to overrate the SEC. The ACC always seems to get lots of preseason publicity, but with just 2 BCS wins in 12 years...yeah, they don't seem to have what it takes. Non-BCS teams have to win 11 games to get any chance of a top 25 appearance, regardless of schedule and have to win 1 games to have any chance of a BCS game.
Anyway, it should be interesting to see who is closer. I know one thing: the coaches are always wrong in the preseason...I have yet to be proven wrong with this model...haha. Let year one begin.
Saturday, August 3, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: SEC
West
1. Alabama
2. Ole Miss
3. LSU
4. Texas A&M
5. Arkansas
6. Auburn
7. Mississippi State
East
1. Georgia
2. South Carolina
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Tennessee
6. Vanderbilt
7. Kentucky
Bama is the clear cut favorite to win the SEC West, the SEC, and the National Championship. Their only real regular season challenge is at Ole Miss. My model predicts a double-digit win at Texas A&M (and I whole-heartedly agree, I think A&M is in for a rude awakening this season). Georgia COULD give Bama a challenge in the SEC Title game, since Bama only has one week to prepare for the game. The only other team in the country that my model thinks can challenge Bama in the National Championship game is Stanford (and Ohio State, but I refuse to believe that Ohio State could challenge any REAL football team they play...which is ZERO in Big Ten play).
Ole Miss is the surprise team in my model, which is something I can get on board with. I think Mississippi State is a little low, as on paper they aren't as good as they have been on the field the past few years.
Vanderbilt never looks great on paper, and my model shows the same. But I would be shocked to actually see them finish below both Missouri and Tennessee.
Otherwise, I like the model and what it predicts. I don't predict a whole lot of drama in the SEC, as I do in some other conferences, but watch out for Ole Miss. My model has them pushing for a BCS bowl game at 10-2, with losses to Texas and Alabama. They play 6 straight home games, including a projected win over Texas A&M.
1. Alabama
2. Ole Miss
3. LSU
4. Texas A&M
5. Arkansas
6. Auburn
7. Mississippi State
East
1. Georgia
2. South Carolina
3. Florida
4. Missouri
5. Tennessee
6. Vanderbilt
7. Kentucky
Bama is the clear cut favorite to win the SEC West, the SEC, and the National Championship. Their only real regular season challenge is at Ole Miss. My model predicts a double-digit win at Texas A&M (and I whole-heartedly agree, I think A&M is in for a rude awakening this season). Georgia COULD give Bama a challenge in the SEC Title game, since Bama only has one week to prepare for the game. The only other team in the country that my model thinks can challenge Bama in the National Championship game is Stanford (and Ohio State, but I refuse to believe that Ohio State could challenge any REAL football team they play...which is ZERO in Big Ten play).
Ole Miss is the surprise team in my model, which is something I can get on board with. I think Mississippi State is a little low, as on paper they aren't as good as they have been on the field the past few years.
Vanderbilt never looks great on paper, and my model shows the same. But I would be shocked to actually see them finish below both Missouri and Tennessee.
Otherwise, I like the model and what it predicts. I don't predict a whole lot of drama in the SEC, as I do in some other conferences, but watch out for Ole Miss. My model has them pushing for a BCS bowl game at 10-2, with losses to Texas and Alabama. They play 6 straight home games, including a projected win over Texas A&M.
Friday, August 2, 2013
Mo's Predicted Conference Standings: Big XII
1. Texas
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. TCU
5. Kansas State
6. Baylor
7. Texas Tech
8. West Virginia
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas
In my opinion, and I know I'm probably alone in this, the Big XII is the best/deepest conference in NCAA this season. Kansas State played in a BCS game last year and returns a lot on offense, yet most prognosticators, and even my own model, predict a 6th place finish for them. This is by far the deepest conference. Last year, 9 out of 10 teams made bowl games. This year, my model has 7, and possibly 8, headed to bowls. The top 4 teams are all basically separated by home-field advantage, and Kansas State, sitting at number 5, has the ability to upset any of those teams too, although they play at Texas and OK State.
I think the Big 12 has the potential to be the most wild of any conference. Any upset in conference play could completely turn the standings upside down. If Baylor or K-State take down any of the top 4, they move into their place. If Kansas or Iowa State manages to upset anyone, they move out of the cellar. Iowa State could even get bowl eligible with an upset here or there.
2. Oklahoma State
3. Oklahoma
4. TCU
5. Kansas State
6. Baylor
7. Texas Tech
8. West Virginia
9. Iowa State
10. Kansas
In my opinion, and I know I'm probably alone in this, the Big XII is the best/deepest conference in NCAA this season. Kansas State played in a BCS game last year and returns a lot on offense, yet most prognosticators, and even my own model, predict a 6th place finish for them. This is by far the deepest conference. Last year, 9 out of 10 teams made bowl games. This year, my model has 7, and possibly 8, headed to bowls. The top 4 teams are all basically separated by home-field advantage, and Kansas State, sitting at number 5, has the ability to upset any of those teams too, although they play at Texas and OK State.
I think the Big 12 has the potential to be the most wild of any conference. Any upset in conference play could completely turn the standings upside down. If Baylor or K-State take down any of the top 4, they move into their place. If Kansas or Iowa State manages to upset anyone, they move out of the cellar. Iowa State could even get bowl eligible with an upset here or there.
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