Tuesday Tidbits, 2010 Week Ten (BCS version)

The Boise State-TCU Saga
Boise State's lead over TCU in the BCS standings shrunk last week.  This week, they fell behind TCU.  After this week, TCU's lead will grow, assuming they win at Utah.  But what happens beyond that?  The experts say it is a foregone conclusion that TCU will never yield its lead over Boise State.

However, TCU's computer numbers will peak after their game against Utah (or perhaps even get worse over time), where Boise State's can continue to improve over the final month.  TCU plays San Diego State, has a bye week, plays at New Mexico (the second-lowest rated FBS team and 198th overall division I program, according to Jeff Sagarin), and finishes the season with another bye.  Boise State plays at Idaho, Fresno State, at Nevada, and Utah State.  That is 4 opponents to TCU's 2, which is a factor that favors Boise State.  Boise State improves their computer ranking more by winning a game, even against a bad team (which Utah State is the only team to qualify, the other 3 are "quality" opponents), than TCU does by being idle.  Boise State also has 2 road games to TCU's 1, which is also a factor in several of the computer formulas that favors Boise State.  Their "average" remaining opponent is 70th ranked to TCU's 119th ranked, which is yet another factor in the computer formulas.  Another thing that Boise State has going for it is that Virginia Tech is likely to be a better non-conference win than Baylor, by the end of the season.  Virginia Tech has the inside track of winning their division and playing in the ACC Championship game, and getting a 13th game against a "quality" opponent, with a good chance to win that game.  Baylor has to play at Oklahoma State and against Oklahoma.  If they lose either (or both), they are out of the rankings and out of the Big XII title hunt.

Computers Say
Here is how the computer formula works: there are 6 computer rankings, the best and worst get dropped, and the other 4 scores are averaged.  That average becomes a percentage, which becomes 1/3 of the BCS formula, along with two human polls as the other 2/3.  Currently, Boise State leads TCU in 2/3 of the formula, i.e. both human polls, by just under 4% in one poll and just under 5% in the other.  TCU's lead over Boise State in the computer 1/3 is 11%.  Predicting the Boise State lead in the human polls drops to 3% in each poll, Boise State needs to make up 5% in the computers over the next 5 weeks.

Boise State is ranked 4, 5, 5, 7, 13, and 7.  Do the fancy math and it ends up as 80%.  TCU is ranked 6, 2, 2, 3, 5, 3.  Fancy math again, 91%.  Realistically, TCU's cap is probably 95% (currently where Oregon is at).  Boise State would need to get to 89% to keep pace.  In the two computer polls where Boise State is #7, they need to make up ground.  The teams ahead of them are in the Kenneth Massey ratings: Auburn, Oregon, TCU, Missouri, Nebraska, and Oklahoma.  After the Big XII war of attrition, at most, only one of those last 3 on the list will be ahead of them.  The three teams behind them are LSU, Arizona, and Utah.  In the Peter Wolfe ratings it is Auburn, Oregon, TCU, LSU, Missouri, and Nebraska ahead of Boise State.  Michigan State, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma trail them.

TCU's computer numbers are about as good as they can get, so they cannot really gain any more separation from Boise State: Boise State can get higher,  TCU is less likely to move up.  The only way to go up for TCU is for teams ahead of them to lose, but if those teams lose, Boise State moves up as well.  TCU is more likely to lose ground than they are to gain any more.

Add all of that up and I believe that Boise State will eventually overtake TCU again.  The lead in the computer polls that TCU has over Boise State will shrink enough by the end of the season for the Broncos to pass the Horned Frogs in the overall standings.  If Boise State's lead in the human polls holds (which it will in the end for the following reason: out of sight, out of mind, and TCU is out of sight 2 of the next 5 weeks where Boise State will be front and center), they will be the top-rated non-AQ and play in either the Rose Bowl or the National Championship.  TCU has one big test this weekend.  Boise State has several smaller tests over the coming weeks.  The "several" is the ace in the hole for Boise State.

How Utah Fits In
The short answer is: they don't.  If they beat TCU, Boise State moves into TCU's position and Utah moves into Boise State's (if Bama doesn't jump Utah with a win at LSU: wouldn't that infuriate Ute fans everywhere!).  Utah will have zero chance to pass Boise State.  Honestly, 30 teams in the country would be undefeated with Utah's schedule.  It doesn't mean they aren't a good team, it just means that they won't pass Boise State: funny how the Strength of Schedule argument can be made for the WAC team.  According to several computer rankings that I looked at, the MWC is stronger than the WAC, but it isn't by a large margin.  Boise State's non-conference slate is certainly better than Utah's by a greater margin than the MWC's superiority to the WAC is (Jeff Sagarin ranking in parentheses): Pitt (37th), San Jose State (155th), at Iowa State (45th), and at Notre Dame (58th) for an average in the 70's; vs. Virginia Tech (29th), at Wyoming (94th), Oregon State (15th), Toledo (69th) for an average in the 50's.  Boise State played two teams better than any team that Utah played and Utah's worst non-conference opponent is 60 spots lower than Boise State's.

Oregon has a clear path to the title game.  There are no more major obstacles: they killed Tennessee at Tennessee, they beat Stanford, they won at USC, and all they have left is a good Arizona team and a rivalry game in Corvallis against Oregon State (a team that lost to both Boise State and TCU).  Auburn's biggest obstacle is Alabama: if both teams win out until the Iron Bowl and the winner of that game beats South Carolina/Florida in the SEC Title game, 'Bama-'Burn takes the other spot in the NC game.  If the SEC doesn't play out perfectly like that: Boise State gets in the NC game over Utah.  The Big Ten champion will not play in the NC game.  The Big XII champion could, but they have a lot of ground to make up: they would need style points, not just victories.  Big East and ACC have been out for a while now.  Utah was elminated when the preseason polls came out.