New Rankings

Well, here they are. The MWC and the Big 10 are done, so they won't be moving very much, only upward.

Rank	Team	Record	Result
1	Florida	10-1	1
2	Texas	10-1	2
3	USC	9-1	3
4	Oklahoma	10-1	4
5	Alabama	11-0	5
6	Penn State	11-1	20
7	Ohio State	10-2	7
8	OK State	9-2	9
9	Georgia	9-2	10
10	Texas Tech	10-1	6
11	Boise State	11-0	11
12	Missouri	9-2	12
13	Cincinnati	9-2	13
14	Utah	12-0	14
15	Ball State	11-0	22
16	Georgia Tech	8-3	35
17	Nebraska	7-4	17
18	Florida State	8-3	34
19	Oregon State	8-3	21
20	Rice	8-3	24
21	W Michigan	9-2	25
22	TCU	10-2	29
23	South Carolina	7-4	30
24	Tulsa	9-2	31
25	BYU	10-2	23
26	Oregon	8-3	32
27	Northwestern	9-3	33
28	Michigan State	9-3	8
29	Pittsburgh	7-3	15
30	Boston College	8-3	36
31	Ole Miss	7-4	38
32	Virginia Tech	7-4	39
33	Buffalo	7-4	40
34	Iowa	8-4	42
35	West Virginia	7-3	43
36	Central Michigan	8-3	18
37	California	7-4	44
38	Houston	7-4	45
39	Navy	6-4	48
40	Louisiana Tech	7-4	51
41	Fresno State	7-4	53
42	Troy	7-4	54
43	Kansas	6-5	55
44	Kentucky	6-5	56
45	East Carolina	7-4	57
46	South Florida	7-4	60
47	Air Force	8-4	41
48	Maryland	7-4	19
49	Wisconsin	7-5	49
50	Miami	7-4	16
51	LSU	7-4	26
52	Connecticut	7-4	28
53	North Carolina	7-4	27
54	NIU	6-5	N/A
55	Rutgers	6-5	N/A
56	Clemson	6-5	N/A
57	Hawaii	6-5	N/A
58	Nevada	6-5	50
59	Arizona	6-5	58
60	Wake Forest	6-5	47
61	Minnesota	7-5	52
62	Vanderbilt	6-5	37
63	Notre Dame	6-5	46

Any challengers? Also, I am working on my answer to the BCS mess, i.e. my solution to the problem, starting next year, but it will take some work.

I have got to leave soon so these will be quick.

Ohio State over Michigan 38-17.
Wyoming over CSU 28-27.
Washington over Washington State in the most meaningful game of the day 38-35, I heard Rafe is going to be watching this one intently.
Cal over Stanford 27-17.
LSU over Ole Miss 35-27.
Boston College over Wake Forest 34-14.
TCU over Air Force 34-27.
Northwestern over Illinois 45-31.
Boise State over Nevada 45-28.
Iowa over Minnesota 27-21.

Big games:
Penn State over Michigan State 38-13
Arizona over Oregon State (USC breathes a sigh of relief) 28-27.
Pittsburgh over Cincinnati 35-28.
Florida State over Maryland 20-16.
Oklahoma over Texas Tech 49-44.
BYU vs. Utah:
One more piece of analysis, then my pick: after watching Utah all year and watching last season's game last night on the Mtn (thanks Mtn for providing me with all-access to all-things Mountain West, sorry you can't help Rafe out, but I'm good with you), I've determined why I think their offense struggles at times. As soon as they cross the 50, or get their 3rd first down of a drive, they run a trick play: if it works, they score, if it doesn't, they punt.
Utah always plays this rivalry game with more passion, which leads to mistakes early in the game. BYU plays even-keeled (as always) and they kind of get knocked back by Utah's passion and intensity. By the second half they usually both settle in: Utah cuts down on mistakes, and BYU gets a little more excited. BYU did show some passion last week in the second half, maybe that will carry over...
I am making my pick based on Whit vs. Bronco head-to-head b/c there is no way to predict which Utah offense shows up, or which BYU defense shows up, or if Utah's D will suffocate BYU's O like TCU, or if BYU's O will move the ball like they have in 10 games this year and as Utah has allowed a couple of times this season.
When BYU is a better team, they win CLOSE (or "on a miracle at the end" as my wife says). When the teams are even, Utah wins in OT. When Utah is better, well, this is the first year they have had the better team under these coaches, so there isn't history there. But you can imagine where this is headed. When the game is at Utah, there will be points scored, that seems to be the trend.
I want to say BYU brings their A game, but I think they bring their B+ game. I'd like to say Utah brings their C game, but I think they bring their A- team for half the game, and their B- for the other half. Unfortunately, that will probably be enough to win this one. I still hold out hope for BYU, and I still think they could easily win by 21, but they could also just as easily lose by 21. I don't think they can win another close game though. I'm predicting a 34-31 win for:

The University of Utah. As much as it pains me to say it, and I really hope I am wrong. Go Cougars. And Cougar fans: nothing good FOR BYU comes from Utah going to a BCS game. In 2006, did you have more respect for Hawaii and San Jose State b/c Boise State manned up on Oklahoma? No, but those were your 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the WAC. BYU doesn't get more respect because Utah goes BCS-ing. Did BYU outrecruit Utah after the 2004 season? No, Utah was able to get better recruits, i.e. this year's senior class, which is better than BYU's for the first time in several years. It doesn't help. Do not believe that the team that hates you more than they love their team going to a BCS game helps you. It helps Utah.

BYU-Utah Teaser

Well, I thought I'd give you a glimpse at the matchups for Saturday's big game. First off, I'd like to thank Pat Forde for the great research he did on the "holy war" (I will never call it that again, there is nothing holy about this rivalry). And thanks for the advice to Max Hall, I sure hope he doesn't throw it to Deshawn Richard, considering the two will likely never be on the field at the same time, unless Max Hall comes out for kickoff return. The mop-up duty safety/special teams gunner and the conference player of the year QB don't face-off against each other too often. Maybe due more research than looking at the stat sheet next time...
Secondly, the vitriol of this rivalry is a bit ridiculous. Both sides think the other side is jealous of their success. Utah, how many 10-win seasons have you had in the last 30 years? Congrats on having two this decade, what an accomplishment. Did you know that until a few weeks ago you hadn't been ranked in 3 full seasons and part of a 4th where BYU has been ranked this entire season and half of the previous two seasons (you know, those seasons you spent hoping to show up in others receiving votes)? BYU, you haven't finished ranked in the top 10 in 12 years, and haven't played in a meaningful (big money) bowl since then, and that streak could extend to 13 if you don't win this weekend. Utah may finish ranked there for the third time since 1994 and play in a second big money bowl in 4 years. Both of you are pretty good non-BCS schools. Neither one of you knocks the socks off the other, and don't bring religion into it. Over half of the U's student population is LDS, so if you hate BYU for being Mormon, you kind of have to hate yourselves. And there are a lot of active church-goers who attend the U, so BYU, don't be hating on the U for being apostate or not good enough to get in to BYU.
Thirdly, I think the similarities of these two teams are a bit uncanny. So here's a look into Mo's mind as the big one approaches.
BYU's D vs. Utah's O: both sides have shown brilliance, and total ineptitude at times during the season. First let's look at coaches: Jaime Hill/Bronco Mendenhall vs. Andy Ludwig. It's a good thing Utah has a lot of talent on offense because if it came down to coaching, I wouldn't like their chances (on a side note, maybe Utah will get lucky and Ludwig will be smart and take a job offer somewhere, that's the only chance they have of building a decent O next year). BYU's D is designed to force teams to drive down the field, and is supposed to prevent big plays. Utah's O is designed to make big plays, but rarely shows the patience to nickel and dime their way down the field. BYU's D hasn't been good at stopping trick plays. Utah's trick play success rate has been so-so, granted every third or fourth play could be considered a "trick play" so let's just call it a "trick offense." BYU has stepped up and made big plays in the red zone in the last two minutes of the game. Utah has choked in the red zone consistently in the first 58 minutes of the game. Utah's O has a little more potential than BYU's D, but has a little less consistency. Against good offenses, BYU has given up yards, and in some cases, points, though they are holding opponents to less than 20 per game. Against good defenses, Utah seems to like scoring 13 points. I'm not going to call BYU's D good, but I'm also not willing to call Utah's O good. Both are "good at times." Which one shows up for each team on Saturday?
BYU's O vs. Utah's D: again, both sides have looked great at times but not stellar at others. The coaches: Gary Anderson vs. Robert Anae, wow, those are some good coaches on both sides, but I'd rather have Gary Anderson, or better yet, I don't need him on my side, let's just hope he takes a coaching job in another conference after the season (or before Saturday...). BYU has gained yards and put up points in bunches, but has had some struggles in the red zone with turnovers. Utah's D has given up yards in bunches, but has been stout in the red zone in forcing field goal attempts (and misses, thankfully). Max Hall makes some sensational throws, and forces some stuff into tight/double coverage. Utah's defense isn't great at defending the pass, but is great at getting pressure on the quarterback. Utah's run defense has been fairly stout (though the stats are somewhat skewed because of all of the sacks, which count against rush yards in college-which is dumb). BYU's rush offense hasn't really been up to par throughout the season. They have had some good games, and they've had some bad games. They seem to live up to challenges because the good games are against good run defenses and the bad games are against bad run defenses. Go figure. Utah has played fundamentally sound during the season. BYU is a pretty basic offense, so being fundamentally sound isn't as crucial, but BYU has shown the ability to mix in a unique set every now and again (usually resulting in a holding penalty on Michael Reed negating the play). Utah's biggest weakness on D (besides 4th and 18 defense): shotgun rushes off-tackle with a lead blocker where those rush ends USED to be. BYU's favorite/only running play: shotgun off-tackle with Fui leading the way. BYU's biggest weakness on O: using the play-action pass before establishing the running game. Utah's biggest strength on D: not falling for the play-action pass when the running game isn't a threat.
The way I see it: strength on strength, weakness on weakness, consistency on consisency, inconsistency on inconsistency. If Utah's offense comes out with a bang, they could blow it open early. If Utah's defense pressures Hall, they could shut him down, like TCU did. If BYU's defense plays fundamentally sound and forces Utah to patiently march downfield, they could hold Utah to a lot of field goals/punts inside the 10-yard line. If BYU's offense can handle the pressure and stick with the running game, they could be unstoppable.
Either team could win big. Or it could come down to Mitch Payne/Louie Sakoda winning or losing it in the closing minutes. Which will it be?
This is a "teaser," i.e. you aren't getting my answer yet.
Rafe, was that good enough unbiased analysis for you?

Mo Knows Rankings, Strength of Schedule added

Sorry it's taken so long for me to get this up this week, but adding the strength of schedule element takes time. There was some shake-up in the top 10. Florida jumped OU and Texas Tech, who both dropped (Tech a little more significantly). Utah's and Boise State's weak schedules pulled them out of the top 10.

Rank	Team
1	Florida
2	Texas
3	USC
4	Oklahoma
5	Alabama
6	Texas Tech
7	Ohio State
8	Michigan State
9	OK State
10	Georgia
11	Boise State
12	Missouri
13	Cincinnati
14	Utah
15	Pittsburgh
16	Miami
17	Nebraska
18	Central Michigan
19	Maryland
20	Penn State
21	Oregon State
22	Ball State
23	BYU
24	Rice
25	Western Michigan
26	LSU
27	North Carolina
28	Connecticut
29	TCU
30	South Carolina
31	Tulsa
32	Oregon
33	Northwestern
34	Florida State
35	Georgia Tech
36	Boston College
37	Vanderbilt
38	Ole Miss
39	Va Tech
40	Buffalo
41	Air Force
42	Iowa
43	West Virginia
44	Cal
45	Houston
46	Notre Dame
47	Wake Forest
48	Navy
49	Wisconsin
50	Nevada
51	La Tech
52	Minnesota
53	Fresno State
54	Troy
55	Kansas
56	Kentucky
57	ECU
58	Arizona
59	SJSU
60	South Florida

Well, Michigan State, Nebraska, and Rice look a little high, but besides that I'd say it looks pretty good. Miami was high as well, but they took care of that themselves...

Keeping Mo Honest

Michigan beats Northwestern 35-20, actual: Northwestern wins 21-14. Man Michigan sucks.
Clemson beats Duke 38-17, actual: Clemson wins 31-7. Too bad Clemson didn't play like this earlier in the year.
Ohio State beats Illinois 45-17, actual: OSU wins 30-20. Beanie Wells had 143 yards rushing.
Purdue beats Iowa 24-20, actual: Iowa wins 22-17. Hey, no one else thought Purdue had a chance, give me some credit.
Maryland beats UNC 31-24, actual: Maryland wins 17-15. How do you even score 15 points?
Oregon State beats California 34-28, actual: 34-21.
Wisconsin over Minnesota 27-13, actual: 35-32.
Boise State over Idaho 49-13, actual: 45-10.
Oregon over Arizona 35-17, actual: 55-45.
Alabama over Mississippi State 13-6, actual: 32-7.
LSU over Troy 28-21, actual: 40-31. The spread was 18, I was closer than the experts...
Tulsa over Houston, no need to go over this one...
Utah over SDSU 37-10, actual: 63-14.
Navy beats Notre Dame 28-21, actual: Notre Dame wins 27-21.
Auburn upsets Georgia 28-24, actual: Georgia 17-13.
Florida over South Carolina 28-14, actual: 56-6.
Boston College over Florida State 20-17, actual: 27-17.
BYU over Air Force 38-20, actual: 38-24.

Well, that's it. I think I did alright again...

Weekend picks

Well, maybe I ought to give up on this blog. No one commented on my tribute to King Louie...
Oh well, I'll keep writing, even if it's only for my sake...

So far I've only missed on one game this week. I thought Louisville would pull it out at home, but I overestimated them, or underestimated Cincinnati.
Michigan beats Northwestern 35-20. Maize and Blue trumps Purple every time. It's amazing Northwestern can even get enough college age men to put on purple unis each week.
Clemson beats Duke 38-17. Duke was a nice story. Clemson was a bad story. The cosmos realigns this week.
Ohio State destroys Illinois 45-17. The Juice may get lose a little bit, but nobody stops the Beanie, baby.
Purdue beats Iowa 24-20. Oops. Letdown City.
Maryland beats North Carolina 31-24. Everything about this game cries North Carolina big. These are the games Maryland wins (of course they lose all the ones that cry Maryland big...).
Oregon State over California 34-28. Oregon State may just run the table. How funny would that be, USC?
Sconsin drops Minnesota 27-13. Can you hear that? It's Herbie and Corso trying to sneak off the Minnesota bandwagon they jumped on before they lost to Northwestern and Michigan.
Boise State dumps Idaho 49-13. The battle for top spud. You can bet on the Broncos for the next 20 years.
Oregon beat Zona 35-17. Oregon mixes in a little defense on senior day at Autzen. See if that confuses them.
Bama over Sly Croom's boys 13-6. I still don't like Bama's offense, especially against the Gators on December 6th.
LSU over Troy 28-21. Closer than the experts think, oh wait, I'm supposed to be one of those experts. I love Lee Corso.
Tulsa over Houston 49-35. Who doesn't love a shootout? SEC fans need not answer.
Utah over San Diego State 37-10. Nice tune-up for BYU next week. I'd pick them to score more but they will save the whole bag of tricks for the Cougars.
Bigger games:
Navy beats Notre Dame! 28-21. Force a couple of turnovers (isn't too hard against the Irish) and hang on to the ball for 40 minutes and this one is yours, Middies.
Auburn upsets Georgia! 28-24. Auburn has no offense? No problem, it's only Georgia's defense. You can score 4 times against them, everybody's doing it.
Florida over South Carolina 28-14. No upset pick here. Urban Meyer lose twice at home? Not with the National Championship on the line. South Carolina will hold Florida down, but you can only do it for so long.
Boston College upsets Florida State! 20-17. Are there really any upsets in the ACC this year? Florida State's offense wasn't that good before they suspended FIVE wide receivers for this game, I can't imagine it will improve. Then again, the Seminoles are used to having the kind of athletes you have to suspend once or twice a season...
Air Force does not upset BYU, 38-20. BYU may be "the most overrated 17th-ranked team in the history of college football" but they are still much better than Air Force, the most overachieving team in college football. Air Force is the one team on BYU's schedule that they have more speed than. If BYU does not turn the ball over, it should roll. I will be at this game, so BYU better not let me down. Since I have been married I have been to 13 BYU wins, and no BYU losses. Since Bronco Mendenhall has been at BYU as DC and HC, BYU hasn't had a problem with the option. Almost everybody in the front seven has seen the option at least one or two times in their careers and done well, it's the back 4 I worry about. While Air Force doesn't run the option as much as it has in years past, I don't see them "exploding" on offense, which is what they will need to knock off the two-time reigning conference champions.

A Tribute to King Louie

There have been a lot of good kickers through the years in college football. In my years of following the sport, however, I have never seen any kicker receive the pub and notoriety of Louie Sakoda. Time and time again you hear, in reference to King Louie, that he is the MVP of the Utah team. I have often asked myself: what makes a kicker/punter the MVP of a team?
Certainly, he is one of the best kickers in the country. He's perfect inside 40 yards, and near perfect over 40 yards (80%). However, he's only 8th in field goal percentage in the country, and he's tied for 4th in field goal makes.
He is a pretty awesome punter. He does have a knack for preventing returns (less than 20% of his punts are returned). He can also down it inside the 20 with the best of them: 43% of his punts end up inside the 20. In "pooch" attempts, he only puts a cool 28% into the end zone, and only one of those has been downed outside the 20. But his average punt and his net average rank him in the 30's in the country. On a side note, his net average is nearly identical to what mine was as a sophomore in high school (about 35 for me compared to 36.8 for him).
So, perhaps it is the fact that he does both pretty stinking well. I'm not sure that's it either, because there have been guys before him to do both well, as All-Americans and Groza/Guy Award winners. But none of them have been MVP's of top-10 teams.
So what is it that separates Sakoda from the rest? I believe the thing that makes Louie Sakoda the MVP of the undefeated Utes is: Utah's offense. If they didn't struggle so much between the 40's, he wouldn't have the opportunity to drop it inside the 20 2.9 times per game. If they didn't have so many problems scoring touchdowns in the red zone, he wouldn't be kicking 1.1 red zone field goals a game, and 2.1 field goals per game.
In short, Louie Sakoda is the MVP of the 7th-ranked and undefeated Utah Utes because Brian Johnson and Matt Asiata are not. Louie Sakoda is the big man on campus because Andy Ludwig is the little man in the press box.
So hats off to you, King Louie: you should take your extremely helpful supporting cast out to dinner. If it weren't for them, you'd be just another All-American candidate and Lou Groza/Ray Guy semi-finalist, but you couldn't possibly be the MVP of a top-10 team.

Keeping Mo Honest

Here's a little schpiel on last week's picks:

My pick: Texas over Baylor 45-24, actual: 45-21
Western Michigan over Illinois 27-24, actual: 23-17
Boise State over Utah State 45-13, actual: 49-14
At this point we should just quit while we're ahead.
Penn State over Iowa 20-10, actual: Iowa over Penn State 24-23
Oklahoma over Texas A&M 56-27, actual: 66-28
Oregon over Stanford 31-17, actual: 35-28
UCLA over Oregon State 27-24, actual: Oregon State over UCLA 34-6
Air Force over Colorado State 27-24 (I really liked that score this week), actual: 38-17
West Virginia over Cincinnati 38-35, actual: Cincinnati over WVU 26-23 in OT
Boston College over ND 34-24, actual: 17-0
Ohio State over Northwestern 35-27, actual: 45-10
Georgia Tech over North Carolina, 24-13, actual: North Carolina over Georgia Tech 28-7
BYU over San Diego State 56-24, actual: 41-12
LSU over Alabama 24-21, actual: Bama 27, LSU 21 (I felt good when this went to OT 21-all)
Texas Tech over OK State 34-27, actual: 56-20

Not too bad.

The Mo Knows Rankings

Well, here are this week's batch of rankings. I plan on having a couple of articles up later this week. Without further ado:

Rank	Team	Previous	Record
1	Texas Tech	1	10-0
2	Oklahoma	2	9-1
3	Florida	4	8-1
4	OK State	3	8-2
5	Alabama	5	10-0
6	USC	6	8-1
7	Boise State	7	9-0
8	Utah	16	10-0
9	North Carolina	9	7-2
10	Missouri	10	8-2
11	Texas	11	9-1
12	Ohio State	12	8-2
13	Michigan State	14	9-2
14	Georgia	15	8-2
15	Ball State	17	9-0
16	Air Force	19	8-2
17	Central Michigan	20	7-2
18	BYU	21	9-1
19	Tulsa	22	8-1
20	Penn State	8	9-1
21	Western Michigan	28	8-2
22	Florida State	29	7-2
23	Cincinnati	33	7-2
24	California	18	6-3
25	Miami	34	6-3
26	Pittsburgh	35	7-2
27	TCU	13	9-2
28	Navy	37	6-3
29	Arizona	38	6-3
30	ECU	39	6-3
31	Oregon State	40	6-3
32	LSU	27	6-3
33	South Carolina	41	7-3
34	Nebraska	42	6-4
35	Wake Forest	43	6-3
36	Northwestern	24	7-3
37	Virginia Tech	44	6-3
38	Rice	45	7-3
39	Oregon	49	7-3
40	Connecticut	50	6-3
41	Georgia Tech	32	7-3
42	South Florida	51	6-3
43	Troy	54	6-3
44	Boston College	56	6-3
45	West Virginia	23	6-3
46	Maryland	25	6-3
47	Minnesota	30	7-3
48	Iowa	61	6-4
49	Ole Miss	58	5-4
50	Vanderbilt	46	5-4
51	Kentucky	36	6-4
52	La Tech	NR	5-4
53	Nevada	NR	5-4
54	Houston	NR	5-4
55	Buffalo	NR	5-4
56	Akron	NR	5-4
57	Northern Illinois	48	5-4
58	Louisville	53	5-4
59	Kansas	26	6-4
60	Notre Dame	52	5-4
61	SJSU	31	6-4
62	La-Lafayette	47	5-4
63	Fresno State	55	5-4

Any thoughts?

Weekend games

Let's see if I do any good this week (I'm 4 for 6 so far-TCU and Fresno State missed):

Texas over Baylor, 45-24. Baylor is much improved, but not THAT improved. Colt McCoy for 400+ and 5 TDs. After struggling two weeks in a row, Robert Griffin had a stellar performance against Missouri last week, the kid's only 18 years old! He'll move the ball and put some points on the board, but they'll fall well short today.
Western Michigan over Illinois, 27-24. Illinois should win this game but I have no confidence in their defense. Besides, they always disappoint me, so if I pick them to lose, they'll win and I'm OK with that.
Boise State over Utah State, 45-13. Utah State is moving in the right direction, unfortunately, Boise State had a huge head start down that path. I hope Utah State keeps Brent Guy! I hope Boise State can hang on to Chris Peterson with all of the high profile jobs opening up. Then again, he is so loved in Boise, it'd be tough to draw him away (i.e. it'd take a LOT of money).
Penn State over Iowa, 20-10. Iowa plays tough, but they don't have the horses to pull off the upset, even at home. This will be a defensive battle.
Oklahoma over Texas A&M, 56-27. Another replay game: they score in the 50's and give up in the 20's. This is getting old.
Clemson over Florida State, 23-20. A typical ACC game: two not very good teams, playing in a low scoring game decided by missed field goal late.
Oregon over Stanford (this one's for you Anna), 31-17. Oregon has a pretty good team. The defense is better than usual. The offense has more dogs, but they lack continuity at the quarterback position due to injuries (of course, if you have a spread option attack, you put the QB at risk). Stanford has a decent D, but look for Oregon to move the ball on them.
UCLA over Oregon State, 27-24. This is for Cougar fans who are lamenting their team's performance. The team you killed beats the team that Utah came from behind to beat.
Air Force over Colorado State, 27-24. Colorado State is improved, but they'll have to wait until next year for a bowl game.
West Virginia over Cincinnati, 38-35. I expect this one to be a close game, but I think the Mountaineers pull it out.
Boston College over Notre Dame, 34-24. In the battle of the Catholics, the snobs of the northeast beat the hard-working farm boys from the midwest. The Irish make a field goal, for the fourth game in a row. If that's not a moral victory for them, I don't know what is.
Big games:
Ohio State over Northwestern, 35-27. The difference in this game, Ohio State's "defense." They will slow down the Wildcats just enough to win this one. This is a different Buckeye team with Prior and Beanie. Prior still makes freshman mistakes, but, then again, he is still a freshman. He'll be OK in a wide open game. This is the Big Ten's best impression of the old-school WAC.
Georgia Tech over North Carolina, 24-13. North Carolina's offense hasn't been all that great this season to begin with, but combine that with a bye week and a great Bumblebee defense, and they may struggle to score. Georgia Tech's offense is starting to take better care of the ball and they can wear you down pretty quick. I see an "upset" in Chapel Hill.
BYU over SDSU, 56-24. I think the defense really has been getting better. They were only responsible for 21 of CSU's 42 points last week. On senior day at LaVell Edwards Stadium, the offense rolls. The defense gives up some big plays, but that's because SDSU isn't afraid to throw it 50 times and you're bound to give up big plays (especially if you are BYU's secondary).
LSU over Alabama, 24-21. I am not sold on Alabama's offense. Conventional wisdom says. Alabama wins, I'm sure Herbie and Corso will pick Bama, as well as all the experts. That's why I'm picking LSU. The defense shows up for once in a big game this season.
Texas Tech over OK State, 34-27. Can we really get a THIRD instant classic from the Big 12 this season? Well, maybe it won't be a classic, but I expect it to actually be a pretty good game. Tech may pull away and score in the 40's, but I don't see the Cowboys taking this one, no way, no how. Next year they've got a shot at the Big 12 South, but not this year. They'll lose to Tech and OU this season still.

Big loser (besides TCU): Boise State

Well, TCU lost the game tonight, and, as a default result, Utah ended up with a win. 95% of the game played out like I thought. TCU moved the ball up and down the field, getting nearly 450 yards against Utah's "dominant" defense. Utah's offense struggled almost the entire game, having to punt 8 times, and going 4 for 15 on 3rd down. Utah tried to turn it over, with two fumbles that they recovered and two passes that should have been intercepted, but managed to put a goose egg up there in the turnover column. BUT...when a TD drive was needed, Brian Johnson answered the call, and Andy Dalton could only get two field goal attempts, both of which missed wide right (technically, the first one bounced off the left upright and skidded over to the right of the right upright). You definitely have to give Utah credit for making the game-winning drive. But, you definitely have to give TCU credit for making it possible.
They had the ball inside field goal range 4 times without scoring a single point. The two missed field goals were already mentioned, and then there were the TWO times TCU's QB ran backwards to avoid pressure and ran right out of field goal range while still getting sacked. 12 points missed out on, at least, in a game where even 6 would have put the game out of reach. Instead, they got 0, and lost by 3. (On a side note according to their season averages they should have scored two TDs and a field goal and come away empty only once in those four possessions: 27-13, very close to my prediction. I have to say something to save face after hitting Utah's points scored on the nose but missing TCU's by 24)
The biggest play was: the ill-advised pass thrown by Andy Dalton with 26 seconds left in the first half. Utah returned the interception 37 yards and ended up with a field goal out of it. He eats the ball: no field goal, 10-10.
What I [re-]learned about Utah's defense: they make plays at critical times, on third down, in the red zone, at the close of halves and quarters, etc. However, they aren't as good when it isn't crunch time and they can't handle big, fast receivers (nobody left on the schedule has those, in fact, no one on the schedule until now has had those except TCU-and Michigan but they didn't have anyone to get them the ball).
What I have been saying about Utah's offense all season that is still true: they make plays at critical times, in the fourth quarter, mainly. They aren't good when it isn't crunch time.
What can you say about Louie Sakoda: he is AWESOME at all times during the game, except crunch time. He is the anti-Utah in that regard. His two fourth quarter punts gave TCU field position (net on those two punts: 30 yards) so that they could miss two chip-shot field goals and not put the game away and end up losing.
How I feel about Utah after moving to 10-0: I still believe that Boise State is a better team than the Utes are. They play four quarters, regardless of the opponent. Their defense has played one bad quarter the entire season, where Utah seems to have a bad quarter per game. Their offense took a little time to gel early with the frosh at QB, but they have been putting the hurt down early in games recently. People argue that they haven't played anybody. I don't care. Just watch the team play: they may be playing horrible teams, but they make it look like they are playing air. Utah has struggled against some teams that are as good as teams that Boise State has dominated.
What I think about the BCS: Utah is as close to a sure thing as there is. They have San Diego State. No need to say anything about that game. Then they have BYU, whose offense plays right into the hands of Utah's defense (precision and timing-pressing the receivers and having ends that bat balls down), and whose defense plays right into the hands of Utah's offense (no contain upfront to keep the game between the tackles, DBs that play 15 yards off the ball, and, of course, no speed except at one outside linebacker position). I hate to spoil my prediction about that game (except for that little shoe-in comment earlier), so I'll just give you a little taste. The only shot BYU has in that game is to get ahead early (score in the 20's in the first half) and keep the pressure on in the second half. TCU got ahead early but, again, had 4 scoring opportunities after the quick 10 and didn't keep the pressure on by actually adding any points. BYU will not be able to come from behind against Utah. As far as BYU's offense is concerned: Utah will take away the receivers on the outside so it will be up to Pitta and Andrew George to have big games, and Unga coming out of the backfield. They also need to run off-tackle, to where the speed-rushing D-ends used to be as they fly around the edge towards the QB.
Best part about the TCU loss: this offseason, the tackling dummies will have U's on them instead of Y's.

The Big One (at least in the non-BCS)

There are so many dynamics to the TCU-Utah game it's tough to figure out how it'll play out, but you are here because you want to read what I think.

Utah's "big-game" ability has been uncanny over the past 5 years. They have won 3 straight week day games in the regular season, dating back to last year. They have won the last two over TCU, both on Thursday nights. Advantage Utah.

TCU has made as many (or more) "statements" than any other team in the conference since joining the Mountain West, tallying 3 wins against ranked opponents (2 of them teams ranked in the top 10 at the time). Utah is 1-3 against ranked teams over the same span. As a side note, BYU is 0-5. Advantage TCU.

We'll call the defenses a wash (I don't think they are, but we'll call it that). TCU has the advantage on offense (consistency and turnovers). Utah has the advantage in special teams (pinning people deep, blocking punts, kicking through the end zone, field goals automatic inside 60 yards, punt return is a liability though). TCU wants to prove that the real Horned Frogs are the team that dominated BYU and not the one that lost to Oklahoma before the second quarter started. Utah wants to prove it is...well, they haven't had any games against competition like Oklahoma or BYU to measure against (I am not saying BYU is great competition, I am saying they are better than anyone on Utah's schedule to this point).

So what is the difference? TCU has taken it away 26 times (2.6 per game). Utah has given it up 16 times (1.8 per game). Utah has been better at RES turning it over only 5 times in 4 home games but two of those have been returned for TDs. TCU has had 12 takeaways in 5 road games thus far. Huge advantage TCU, in a game where momentum is key.

Throw in a little home field advantage for Utah, who will set a school record for most sellouts in a season this year, with 3 (Oregon State, TCU, and BYU).

Utah has been inconsistent on offense for 7 of their 9 games this season. They seem to lack an identity, a direction, or anything resembling like a team that knows what they're doing, i.e. a senior laden bunch. Also, they are averaging 4.3 punts per game. Compare that to other top 10 teams: Oklahoma and Alabama are the only other ones averaging even over 3.5 punts/game. Of course, TCU hasn't been any better, punting 4.8 times per game. Granted they played two games in atrocious weather conditions that account for 16 of their 48 punts (33% of punts coming in 20% of games): the weather forecast calls for cold, but not rain. But TCU punting may be their best offense: have you watched Utah's punt returners? They are lucky to keep the ball at all, and they certainly count their lucky stars if they IMPROVE field position with a return.

As most gutless politicians do, I will go with the polls: you said that TCU wins big, I'll agree with you. I think if TCU can absolutely shut down a consistent offense in BYU (and Oklahoma for 3 of 4 quarters-100 yards less than OU's season average), they shouldn't have too many problems keeping a turnover-prone, penalty-getting, pass-dropping, big-play reliant, inconsistent Utah squad from scoring but 2 or 3 times. I said last week, Utah couldn't settle for field goals in the red zone: they got a field goal, a touchdown, and a turnover in three trips inside the 20. This week, they have to take advantage of EVERY chance in the red zone (3.3 points per trip won't cut it), because they may not get very many opportunities. TCU's offense shouldn't have too much trouble scoring either, even against Utah's D: Utah gave up 23 to a bad Michigan offense, 23 to an Air Force team that only dropped 16 on Army, 21 to Weber State of the FCS, 28 to a 5-3 Oregon State squad, and 7 to Wyoming who is averaging only 4 points per game against teams with winning records (take out the Utah game and it drops to 3). Prediction: TCU 34, Utah 13. It won't be as ugly as the BYU game, thanks to King Louie, but it won't be fun for Utah fans, players, and coaches. TCU jumps Boise State in the BCS rankings for the top non-BCS spot after this weekend. That's bad pub for the WAC.

The Mo Knows Rankings

Well, here is the latest batch of rankings.

Rnk	Team	Pvs	Record
1	Texas Tech	15	9-0
2	Oklahoma	2	8-1
3	OK State	3	8-1
4	Florida	4	7-1
5	Alabama	5	9-0
6	USC	6	7-1
7	Boise State	7	8-0
8	Penn State	8	9-0
9	UNC	9	6-2
10	Missouri	10	7-2
11	Texas	1	8-1
12	Ohio State	12	7-2
13	TCU	13	9-1
14	Michigan State	14	8-2
15	Georgia	11	7-2
16	Utah	16	9-0
17	Ball State	19	8-0
18	California	24	6-2
19	Air Force	25	7-2
20	Central Michigan	26	7-2
21	BYU	28	8-1
22	Tulsa	17	8-1
23	West Virginia	33	6-2
24	Northwestern	51	7-2
25	Maryland	29	6-2
26	Kansas	30	6-3
27	LSU	32	6-2
28	WMU	35	7-2
29	Florida State	21	6-2
30	Minnesota	20	7-2
31	San Jose State	37	6-3
32	Georgia Tech	38	7-2
33	Cincinnati	39	6-2
34	Miami	41	6-3
35	Pittsburgh	45	6-2
36	Kentucky	46	6-3
37	Navy	47	6-3
38	Arizona	48	5-3
39	ECU	50	5-3
40	Oregon State	52	5-3
41	South Carolina	53	6-3
42	Nebraska	40	5-4
43	Wake Forest	54	5-3
44	Virginia Tech	55	5-3
45	Rice	56	6-3
46	Vanderbilt	57	5-3
47	La-Lafayette	58	5-3
48	Northern Illinois	60	5-3
49	Oregon	27	6-3
50	Connecticut	18	6-3
51	South Florida	43	6-3
52	Notre Dame	31	5-3
53	Louisville	23	5-3
54	Troy	34	5-3
55	Fresno State	36	5-3
56	Boston College	42	5-3
57	Illinois	N/A	5-4
58	Ole Miss	N/A	5-4
59	Stanford	N/A	5-4
60	Virginia	22	5-4
61	Iowa	44	5-4

Let me know what you think. Yes I realize North Carolina is still ranked too high, but there is nothing I can do about it until they lose (they actually got there through a loophole in the rules that I will not be spending the large amount of time it would take to fix retroactively). Also, Alabama, Penn State, and Utah are probably too low, but their schedule strength brought them down last week and they have to keep winning with teams ahead of them losing to move up.

Keeping Mo Honest

I stand by my performance on picks this weekend. Let's look at how the games went:

Northwestern over Minnesota 24-17 (Mo's pick 28-17, accuracy rating, very high): while Minnesota's top receiver was hurt for most of the second half, they still didn't look like a very good squad, especially when you consider that Northwestern's starting tailback AND quarterback didn't play AT ALL.
West Virginia over Connecticut 35-13 (Mo's pick 35-20, accuracy rating, ridiculously close): West Virginia's offense didn't overly impress from a yardage standpoint, but they did punch it in when the defense got turnovers (which happened VERY often). Oh, and there is a ranked Big East team or two, so I did miss in that regard.
CMU over Indiana 37-34 (Mo's pick 31-17, accuracy rating, close enough for government work, especially in Nancy Pelosi's government): didn't see this game or highlights, no comments.
Purdue over Michigan 48-42 (Mo's pick Michigan 28, Purdue 6, accuracy rating, unmeasurable, like my cholesterol level): I am glad Purdue finally benched four-year starter waste of space (and all-time leading passer in Purdue history) Curtis Painter for a QB that can actually score points. Of course, it made my pick look idiotic but it's always nice to see Rafe's Boilermakers do something right. Michigan eliminated from bowl eligibility.
Arkansas over Tulsa 30-23 (Mo's pick Tulsa 42, Ark 21, accuracy rating, poor, like Tulsa's fourth down conversion rate when the game is on the line): I hate that Tulsa lost this game from a respect standpoint. Herbie and Corso said they couldn't handle SEC speed, even if it was "only" Arkansas. It just validates the belief that the non-BCS is full of Hawaii's and that the Boise States are just flukes.
Wyoming over SDSU 35-10 (Mo's pick 38-35, accuracy rating, who cares about this game): props to the Wyoming defense and running game.
Texas A&M over CU 24-17 (Mo's pick 28-12, accuracy rating, pretty darn good considering the inconsistency of the two teams involved): will Colorado ever be good again?
Pittsburgh over Notre Dame 36-33 (Mo's pick ND 34, Pitt 28, accuracy rating, overrated, like ND's home-field advantage): when this game went in to overtime knotted at 24 I was feeling good about my pick. When it went in to the 4th OT at 33's, I thought, man I wasted a lot of time watching this horrible, horrible game. 4 OT's, NO TDs! I gained no respect for either coach as a result of this pillow fight and stand firm in my position: they both stink.
Utah State over Hawaii 30-14 (Mo's pick 28-24, accuracy rating, better than I thought it would be): Hawaii failed to score in the red zone TWICE in the 4th quarter that would have made my pick look better. Utah State is moving in the right direction (finally), I hope they have the sense to keep their coach (not likely) and let him complete the turnaround (just another two years away). They may only be 2-7, but their last 3 or 4 games have been somewhat competitive, which is better than previous years and better than when Brent Guy arrived.
Cal over Oregon 26-16 (Mo's pick Oregon 35, Cal 27, accuracy rating, at least I haven't been living in a tree for a year to protect it from being torn down so they could build a parking lot): who would win in a wrestling match, Biden or Obama? Who cares? Exactly, they are both ultra-liberal good-for-nothings. Sounds like an Oregon-Cal game to me.
Georgia Tech over Florida State 31-28 (Mo's pick 17-14, accuracy rating, nailed the point spread): I didn't expect this offensive "explosion" from either team but was glad to see the triple option team beat the we've-had-no-offensive-identity-since-the-Reagan-administration team.
Illinois over Iowa 27-24 (Mo's pick Iowa 31, Illinois 23, accuracy rating, Drew, can I get my Illini sweatshirt back from your car?): I had the wrong winner, but I get tired of putting any faith in Illinois. Once you let them get your hopes up, they bring them crashing down. I guess Iowa fans have been dealing with that each season under Ferentz though. I'm a Cubs fan, I should just deal with crushed dreams like I've been doing the last 100 years, go Illini! Let the dream-crushing begin.
Boise State over New Mexico State 49-0 (Mo's pick 38-10, accuracy rating, who lays down like that at home against a top-10 team? Wazu fans need not answer): didn't see any highlights but I would like to say: wow! I think the AP poll got it right this week putting the Broncos over the Utes.
USC over Washington 56-0 (Mo's pick 49-7, accuracy rating, better than Mark Sanchez' completion %): I hate that games like this take up one of my channels on Saturday. There were some games decided by less than 8 TDs I would rather have seen that got no coverage at all.
South Carolina over Tennessee 27-6 (Mo's pick 20-14, accuracy rating, Tennessee stinks): Commentary: see accuracy rating.
Oklahoma over Nebraska 62-28 (Mo's pick 58-27, accuracy rating, fantabulous): 28 points before the 1st quarter was half over? 49 points at halftime? I thought Nebraska hired Bo Pelini so there wouldn't be more embarrassing losses like this? The best part about this game: nobody left early. They all stayed after the game to watch the Texas-Texas Tech ending on the jumbo-tron.
TCU over UNLV 44-14 (Mo's pick 38-27, accuracy rating, I'll hold off on hitting the slots, but maybe a little blackjack): a well-oiled machine moves in to Salt Lake this Thursday. For the Utes' sake, I hope they have been holding back. If they play like they did against Michigan, Air Force, Oregon State, and New Mexico, they are going to get "Cougar-ed" by TCU. To be cougared means to be decimated in every aspect of the game on national television on a Thursday night by a superior opponent whose mascot is a horny toad.
Florida over Georgia 49-10 (Mo's pick 38-21, accuracy rating, did anybody besides blue-and-orange-goggled Gator fans predict a 39-point victory?): I thought Georgia would get blown out, but I thought 17 points was generous. We learned something about pretenders in this game. Georgia has played 3 good teams this season and hasn't held a single one of them to less than 38 points. Isn't this supposed to be one of the vaunted SEC defenses? Sounds like it's only an awesome defense when it plays a horrible offense/most of the SEC.
BYU over CSU 45-42 (Mo's pick 35-24, accuracy rating, awesome if BYU's offense would stick to scoring for their own team): well BYU sure decided to make this game interesting. The defense played great, especially considering what happened to their secondary this week: the second string CB left the program and during the game a starter and the back-up got hurt forcing last week's scout team MVP into action, and a starting safety and his back-up didn't even make the trip, so 2 guys not even on the depth chart a week or two ago saw SIGNIFICANT minutes this game. They only gave up 3 scoring DRIVES and one big play TD. Now the offense gift-wrapping 2 TDs was a little unexpected, but at least they dropped 45 to make up for it. CSU did exactly what I said they should: pick on Brandon Howard. He had a few pass break-ups during the game, which he celebrated like he made a game-sealing interception in the Super Bowl, but in the end I would pin a fair portion of the 270 passing yards on his area of the zone (or his area under the umbrella in BYU's case).
Utah over New Mexico 13-10 (Mo's pick New Mexico 28, Utah 23, accuracy rating, a lot higher than a pass to Freddie Brown in the corner of the end zone): well I stand corrected: Louie Sakoda can carry Utah a little further still. Utah was 2 for 4 in the red zone with a TD and a field goal, which I thought would finally catch up to them this week. Fortunately for them, New Mexico stinks on offense, and their QB has never run a two-minute drill, as was readily apparent by the fact that they simply ran out of time just 15-20 yards short of game-tying field goal range. One thing is for sure: the Utes will need more than 13 points against TCU, whose defense is bigger, better, faster than New Mexico's, if they want to win. But they have a tendency to get up for the big games so it should be interesting. TCU will have to play like they did against BYU: hungry, fast, and disciplined. Utah will have to play like they did against...Utah State? That's the only game that they played well in all facets of the game for four complete quarters.

If you can find some way to average out my highly precise accuracy ratings, let me know. I would say if you can do that it should end up somewhere in the very good to "I won't ever have to worry about putting gas in my car or paying my mortgage again if Obama wins this election" area. Did anybody else catch that interview? Promise everything to everyone=win an election. He's got the Armenian vote since he pledged to be the first president to recognize the Turkish genocide of Armenians since World War II (consequently, Clinton made this same pledge/lie). So, who is going to put gas in your car or pay your mortgage? The millionaire whose own extended family either lives in the slums or just got evicted from the slums who donates less than 1% of his income to "help the poor"/help ACORN make sure your dead grandmother has a right to vote...twice? No, he'll take money from those other "corrupt" and "evil" quarter-millionaires who donate 10-20% of their income to charitable institutions that actually help the poor (and whose wives have always been proud to be an American), even the poor who cling to guns and religion.