The Curse of Independence
Going independent, BYU has lost the "easy" access to the BCS that they helped to create for non-AQ schools. Currently, the highest rated non-BCS conference champion gets an automatic BCS bid if they are ranked in the top 12, or in the top 16 if they are ranked higher than a conference champion from one of the 6 BCS conferences. BYU, as an independent, has foregone any possibility to be a conference champion and get any kind of automatic entrance to a BCS game. This means they must be selected as an at-large team. Notre Dame has a special deal with the BCS that allows them an "automatic" bid if they finish in the top 8 and have at least 9 wins. BYU does not have, nor do they deserve, any such special treatment. I am not sure that Notre Dame deserves their special treatment anymore, but they are still Notre Dame: if they play in a BCS game, 50 million (or more) Catholics worldwide will tune in. As I have stated since the beginning of their Road to Independence, BYU is no Notre Dame. On the field, maybe. Off the field, no way.
A Numbers Game
Getting into the BCS, at-large style, is simply a numbers game. There are 10 bids available. 6 of them are automatically taken by 6 BCS conference champions. A 7th is taken by an SEC team. Guaranteed. This leaves 3 other spots in the BCS. A 12-0, or 11-1 if it is Boise State or TCU, MWC Champion would also obtain the automatic bid described earlier. However, there is no guarantee that a 10-2 Boise State/TCU, or an 11-1 Air Force/SDSU would be in the top 16. If the MWC Champion is outside the top 16, BYU would be competing for 3 spots with a second team from the Pac 12, Big XII, or Big Ten. If the MWC Champion is in the top 16, they would be competing for 2 spots with teams from those conferences.
How Does BYU Get There
Going 12-0 would be a huge start. Going 11-1 would leave the door open, if the loss was on the road to an undefeated BCS conference champion (Texas is the best/only possibility on BYU's schedule). I believe a 12-0 BYU team would be difficult, but not impossible, to pass over by the BCS. An 11-1 team would also be worthy of consideration. Based on how BYU finished the year, what players they bring back, and what the coaching staff looks like for next season, there is not a game on the schedule that BYU couldn't win. Prior to the 2010 season, there were two games they could not win: at Florida State and at TCU. As it turned out, there were others too, but looking ahead to the 2011 season there are no unwinnable games. In the coming weeks, I will walk through the 2011 schedule game by game, but for now, it is enough to say: BYU could win any of them. There are also 6 losable games on the schedule too.
What to Expect in Part II
I will evaluate the competition for those 2 or 3 remaining BCS bids, both from non-AQ challengers and from the Pac 12, Big XII, and Big Ten (I see no reason to assume that the ACC or Big East will provide a SECOND challenger for a BCS bid in 2011, given how far away they were from that in 2010. The Big East didn't even have ONE worthy team in the conference this season).
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