San Diego State at Air Force
There is a bit of a perfect storm brewing here. I do not anticipate it will lead to a Falcon win, but they do have a lot of things going for them. 1) The altitude. 2) SDSU's next game is against BYU. 3) This is an early 11am Pacific tip-off. 4) This follows a late Wednesday game for SDSU that wasn't decided until the final 10 seconds. 5) It comes just before a bye for SDSU, and some Aztecs may be "vacationing" early. 6) Billy White is coming off of a bruised hand against New Mexico. I think those factors could keep Air Force in the game, or at least prevent SDSU from running completely away with it. But SDSU is too dominant on the boards. In the first match-up, SDSU outrebounded Air Force by 15 and nearly had as many offensive rebounds as Air Force had total rebounds. I expect those numbers to be closer, particularly at altitude: SDSU will wear themselves out if they crash the boards too hard. It could be a much better game than it should be, because SDSU is clearly a much better team. Aztecs 60, Falcons 54.
UNLV at Colorado State
This is a huge game for both teams. UNLV needs a big road win to secure a single-digit seed. CSU needs any win against an NCAA Tournament team and a sweep over UNLV could go a long way on Selection Sunday (including put UNLV in jeopardy). In the first matchup, the Rebel big men got worked by the Rams. UNLV was atrocious shooting the ball and trailed from start to finish. The past two games the Rebels are 3-29 on threes. And the Ram big men have been playing extremely well the past few games. It sets up for a perfect chance for CSU to prove the win in Vegas wasn't a fluke. While UNLV has posted 3 road wins in conference, they have all come against the bottom half of the league, and in most of them they won because of the competition, not because of their performance. Shooting woes continue for UNLV, though you never, UNLV is one of those schizophrenic teams. Rams 69, Rebels 54.
Utah at New Mexico
Utah could take a commanding lead into 6th place with a win, and could even end up moving to 5th place with a win. However, I stand by my prediction that they get a 7-seed. New Mexico needs this win really badly, as they are coming off two straight hard-fought road losses. Nothing like a little home cooking to get things back on track. This win doesn't get them back in the discussion for the NCAA Tournament, but it does give them some separation from the bottom half of the league. Really not much to say: New Mexico is a great home team, Utah is a bad road team. New Mexico is a decent team. Decent left Utah two years ago. Lobos 76, Utes 61.
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