BYU-SDSU Prediction, 2/26/2011

A Few Final Thoughts
I think this game will go one of two ways: BYU will rise to the moment and win a tightly contested game or BYU will choke and get blown out.  All BYU fans are familiar with the team that chokes and loses the big game, more so than they are with the one that rises to these kinds of occasions.  Some of them may not admit it, but they all know it to be true.  But I have gone on record on many occasions this year stating that this is not the typical BYU team.  They seem to be mentally tougher.  They seem to find ways to get wins, even when things aren't going their way.  But then there is the loss at New Mexico, in which they blow a double-digit lead during the final 10 minutes of the contest and lost by 9.  And then there's the UCLA game in Anaheim, where BYU led for the first 9 minutes before trailing for the final 31 minutes in a loss.

On the flip side, BYU also dominated against the 10th-ranked Arizona Wildcats in Salt Lake City in a 22-point win.  They controlled the second half at home against the Aztecs exactly one month prior to the rematch.  They went to UNLV and responded to a 10-point deficit with 5 minutes left in the first half with some phenomenal play the final 5 of the first half, and just as dominating of a performance in the second half in a 12-point road win against a conference rival that is surely a single-digit seed NCAA Tournament team.

So will it be more like the team that played the second half against New Mexico or the one that played the second half at UNLV?  Honestly, if BYU played well, I would not be disappointed with a loss.  What would disappoint me would be for the Cougars to wilt under the pressure and be exposed for the unathletic, below-the-rim type of guys that they look like.  I would be disappointed if nobody hit their shots and Jimmer looked like a one-man team.

The Edge
Both teams have distinct advantages.  The Aztecs are a better defensive team and a better rebounding team.  But BYU is a better offensive team and a better free throw shooting team.  SDSU is at home.  But Jimmer is on the road, where he has had some of his best performances of the season.  SDSU is better in the half-court.  But BYU is better in transition.

Both teams have great coaches.  Both teams bring in solid players off the bench, but not many of them.  Both teams have won games they probably should have lost.  Both teams have a chance to perform so well that it won't matter what the other team does.  Both teams are very good.  Both definitely have advantages they can exploit.  The game will go to the team that best utilizes their advantages.

Prediction
Can SDSU prevent Jimmer from going off while also keeping the role players in check?  Jackson Emery and Noah Hartsock will tell you a lot.  If they each hit their first few shots, then Jimmer will have a luxury he didn't have in the first meeting: dependable teammates.  I think there are too many Cougars that have played well lately for the Cougars to play poorly/choke and get blown out.  Since I said it could go one of two ways and I'm ruling one out, I'm obviously going the other way.  I think this game will actually live up to the hype.  BYU is more use to the hype, which may play to their advantage.  I think BYU rises to the occasion and Jimmer leads BYU to what he returned his senior season for: a conference championship.  Even if they lose, there should still be a great rematch in the MWC Tournament (unless UNLV is able to use its homecourt advantage to oust one of them in the semifinals).  The winner of this game loses that rematch.  I guess that means SDSU will be MWC Tournament Champions.  BYU 74, SDSU 67.  Jimmer Fredette, 29.