A Few Keys: BYU-SDSU 2/26/2011

Early Start's Impact
This game is being played at 11am Pacific Time.  That is early for SDSU.  With it being Noon Mountain, it isn't as big of a deal for BYU.  However, BYU also had a very physical contest against CSU Wednesday night, so the early start means less time to recuperate.  Which team will be sluggish at the start?  Or will both?  Or will the hype of the game be enough for both teams to overcome?  Whichever team gets off to a fast start may transform how the game is played.  If BYU jumps out early, SDSU may get in catch-up mode too soon and get out of their normal stuff.  If SDSU jumps out early, the crowd will get into it and some of BYU's younger and role players may not have the mental edge to overcome it.  Whoever wins the first 10 minutes may very well win the game.  That may be even more true for BYU, whose best chance is to get out early on the road and silence the crowd, and cling for the next 30, something they were unable to do against New Mexico.

Junking Jimmer
SDSU will most certainly have some junk defenses for Jimmer.  How much will he get doubled?  Who will guard him the lion's share of the minutes?  Will they do what other teams have done with mixed results and put a PF on him and take away the outside shot?  Jimmer has been driving around the lengthy defenders, but he has been making very poor decisions of late, turning the ball over way too much, on his dribble penetration.  Or will they just take it out of his hands completely and force the rest of the squad to beat them consistently for 40 minutes?  That is the tact I would do.  Jackson Emery, Stephen Rogers, and Charles Abouo can make threes, but can they make 10 or 12 over 40 minutes?  Noah Hartsock can hit baseline jumpers, Brandon Davies can score from the post, and Kyle Collinsworth can get to the rim and score, but can they each put up 15-20 points, and make those shots for an entire game?  So what strategy will they employ?

Steve Fisher is very secretive about that kind of thing.  I remember back about 2004 or so, I worked in the Marriott Center as a janitor.  We were doing some kind of cleaning in the student section, it was game day after all, and he had one of the trainers come and kick us out because they were going over their defensive strategy in walk-through form.  Chances are, nobody knows right now except the players and coaches what the Aztecs will do to try to stop Jimmer.  I do know one thing: they are not going to let him go off for 43 and pretty much singlehandedly win the game.  What they do with Jimmer and how Jimmer reacts, will be crucial.  Jimmer must turn it over no more than 3 or 4 times.  The other guys must continue to hit open looks when they get them.  It is the only way to take the pressure off of Jimmer.  Let's be honest, he pretty much did everything the last time these two teams met.  That can't happen again if BYU wants to win.

It's All in the Percentages
In the first meeting, SDSU dominated the glass, nearly as badly as BYU dominated CSU on Wednesday night.  However, they only scored 58 points.  The fact was they had so many offensive rebounds because there were so many missed shots.  SDSU had 13 second chance points on 18 offensive rebounds.  [Make no mistake, BYU can not afford to give SDSU either of those numbers while playing on the road, but it ended up not killing them at home.  Those numbers mirror what BYU did to CSU on Wednesday night, which was a big difference in the outcome, especially when it is the home team that does it.]  But in the end, those boards and points for the Aztecs were not enough to overcome a deficiency in shooting the ball.  BYU, who had 9 offensive rebounds and 2 second chance points, made up for the Aztecs rebounding dominance with 45% shooting to SDSU's 40%.  I anticipate that both of those numbers will probably go down this game, but which one goes down more will have a huge impact.  Jimmer shot 58% in the first meeting, but has been shooting under 40% for four consecutive games.  In a game with both teams below 40%, SDSU has the edge.  If BYU can stay over 40%, they should have a chance, assuming the BYU factor isn't in play tomorrow and SDSU shoots 50%...