Today: the Important Word
Most current bracketologists have BYU as a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Those projections are based on if the season ended today. The thing is: the season doesn't end today. There are a number of questions that are yet to be answered that will determine how BYU gets seeded for the tournament (obviously). Will BYU hold their #2 RPI ranking? Will BYU finish with 2 losses or will that number double? Will they win (or share, or neither) the MWC Title? How will they do in the MWC Tournament? Bracketologists don't project the answer to any of those questions when considering their brackets.
Chances are, if BYU loses another game or two, they will not hold their #2 ranking in the RPI. Chances are, BYU will lose another game (at SDSU, at home against CSU or UNM, or in the conference tournament, or some combination of those). It is looking increasingly likely that BYU will have to win at San Diego State to win the MWC regular season title. Then, they will probably have to beat two of the top 5 in the conference (SDSU, CSU, UNLV, New Mexico) to win the MWC tournament, which is no small feat.
BYU will lose at least one more game and will either not win the MWC regular season title, or will not win the MWC tournament title, or neither. How will that impact their seeding? Well, if they have 30 wins or more, they should still get a 3-seed in my opinion. If they end up with 5 losses, a 4-seed would be as high as they could get. If BYU somehow wins out in the regular season and wins the MWC Tournament, they would certainly finish as a 2-seed (or better??? Dare to dream...), but if they don't, they are probably looking at a 3-seed.
Tournament Locations
Teams that get seeded 1-4 in the NCAA Tournament are "protected" in terms of first weekend locations. If BYU does secure a top 4-seed, which they should given how they have played and how they probably will play down the stretch, they should probably be sent to Denver for the first two rounds. Perhaps they "fall" to Tucson if they end up as a 4 instead of a 2 or 3. Either way, they should be playing in a western location, with a large contingent of BYU fans, the first weekend of the tournament. That is unless they lose 3 (or more) games still, where they could feasibly fall to a 5 or a 6-seed. I wouldn't book my tickets to Denver just yet (though I don't have to because I'm already here and have that day off of work anyway: I always take the first Thursday of March Madness off), but, theoretically, it is as close to a lock as BYU has ever been in my memory...
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