BYU-Air Force Preview, 2/9/2011

Air Force Offensively
They have 5 capable scorers and 2 wild cards.  G Michael Lyons, F Tom Fow, F Derek Brooks, C Taylor Broekhuis, and G Evan Washington are all capable of putting up double-digit points.  F Zach Bohannon can be a great scorer as well, but is more inconsistent this season.  Reserve G Mike Fitzgerald hit 3 threes against BYU in Provo, so he cannot be counted out either.

Evan Washington tends to force the action more than any other Falcon, so if he is on, he can score quickly.  If he is off, the offense and team struggles.  He has done a better job this season of pacing and better shot selection.  He is clearly the most athletic Falcon, but has learned to accept the team concept better in his senior year.  The Falcons do not score a lot of points (66/game, 63.2/game in MWC play), so all of their possessions have to count, so he cannot get out of control.

As MWC fans know, Air Force runs a very deliberate, low-risk offense.  There is a lot of spacing, combined with back cuts and back screens.  They are difficult to zone against, because they have 5 perimeter shooters on the court.  They are difficult to man-up against because of all of the back cuts, screens, and rolls.  They also do not take bad shots.  They just work the ball around until they get a good shot or until the shot clock runs down when they create off of the dribble.  They average just over 6 offensive rebounds a game, so they must shoot a high percentage to be effective.  Problem is: they typically shoot a high percentage.

Air Force Defensively
The Falcons employ a matchup zone, for those unfamiliar with the term, it is similar to a 3-2, but not really (I just wanted you to get an idea of the shape of the zone).  It is a low-risk defense to go with their low-risk offense.  They don't apply a lot of ball pressure so you can relax, but they also focus on staying between their man and the basket, so you don't get many open looks.  It is essentially the opposite of UNLV's in-your-face, take chances that sometimes lead to wide-open looks, defense that BYU faced on Saturday.  BYU cannot get lulled into security, just because they do not have to rush and push and drive and skip pass.  The Falcon defense gives up 63.5/game, 65.1/game in MWC play.

I do not envision they will change their identity much to account for The Jimmer.  They will do what they do best: zone.  They may have a wrinkle or two in store for him, but they lack the athleticism to expect to recover from double teams to get out to shooters.  Of course that also means they lack the athleticism to stay in front of The Jimmer.  Not a lot of teams have tried zoning BYU this season, so it will be interesting to see how that matchup zone works out for them at home.

BYU at Clune Arena
Under Dave Rose, BYU has never scored more than 71 points at Air Force.  Last season, Jimmer only played 18 minutes as he was recovering from Mono at the time.  Hartsock and Davies both had foul trouble and saw limited minutes.  It was Jackson Emery that led all scorers with 21 points, including 5 three-pointers.  In the game two seasons ago, Jimmer led all scorers with 20 points, as BYU had 71 in the only game they have played at Clune with a healthy, in the starting lineup, Jimmer Fredette.

BYU's Advantages
The Cougars are a much better rebounding team than the Falcons, on both ends of the floor.  They average twice as many offensive rebounds/game as the Falcons, and 11 more total rebounds/game.  They also record more steals and blocks/game than the Falcons, though on a per possession basis, the teams are essentially equivalent.  Air Force games have fewer possessions, so they record fewer stats.  BYU does a better job of taking care of the ball than the younger, more inexperienced Falcons, even with more possessions/game.  They are expecting a sellout crowd, which is 3,000 more fans than any home game the Falcons have had this season.  Either their fan base recently got enthusiastic for no reason, or there will be a lot of BYU fans there.  Either way, the energy will probably better suit a more experienced BYU.

Air Force's Advantages
The Falcons are a much better shooting team, in terms of percentages.  A higher percentage of their baskets are also "assisted" baskets.  They are playing at home, so even if 25% of the crowd is there to watch Jimmer and BYU, they still hold that advantage.

How BYU Wins
They need to push tempo, guard the rim, and dominate the glass.  The more possessions they have, the better chance they have to win, since some of the Cougars are "volume shooters," i.e. they need more shots to get going/scoring.  The fewer successful back-door cuts the Falcons get, the less likely they are to score.  Solid rebounding will lead to fast breaks, or easy second-chance points.

How Air Force Wins
Put the brakes on, defend the post, and easy buckets.  They must slow the game down and make BYU defend for 30-35 seconds, since that is the weak side of their game.  They must be able to defend Hartsock and Davies without having to abandon outside shooters.  They need to get creative on offense to create situations where they have open shooters on the edge and/or open cuts to the lane.  If shooters hit, BYU will lean outside, which opens up the cutters.  If cutters get through, they cheat inside, freeing up outside shooters.

Prediction
Air Force is much improved from last year's team that lost by 18 points at home to BYU.  BYU is looking every bit as good as last year's NCAA Tournament team, though not as deep.  Can Rogers and Abouo play well for a second straight game if needed?  This is a game where Logan Magnusson could contribute if foul trouble plagues the BYU big men.  I think The Jimmer is also ready for another big performance.  You could say he is due, after 3 straight games under 40 points, in only one of which he scored over 30.  Jimmer saves his best performances for when his team needs him the most.  With depth/health concerns, on the road, in front of a sellout crowd, his team may need him again.  At least one non-starter will probably go for 10 points, The Jimmer will score 35, and BYU wins a good game at Clune Arena.  It didn't work out for me to be there, but Flavordave and Mr. HT Johansen are going to carry the torch for me.  Enjoy.  Cougars 74, Falcons 62