The BYU Number One Seed Argument

What Will It Take?
A lot of discussion has been made as to whether or not BYU can get a number 1 seed.  If the season ended today, I don't see why they wouldn't.  But the season doesn't end today.  First off, at a bare minimum BYU needs to win their last two regular season games and the MWC Tournament.  That should be enough to keep them in the top 3 of the RPI, which isn't a perfect measure of tournament seeding, but it's pretty good.

They may need to have the matchups line up correctly as well.  That would mean playing CSU in the Semifinals and SDSU in the Finals of the tournament.  That would be the biggest help to their Strength of Schedule, given the other opponents that they could get (New Mexico and UNLV).  Getting TCU would also be better in the first round, from a Strength of Schedule perspective as well, though whether BYU plays the 200th or 258th team isn't a big difference.  BYU currently has 4 top-25 wins, 9 top-50 RPI wins, and 11 top-100 wins.  If UNLV could pop into the top 25 (currently at 26), it would give BYU 2 more top-25 wins.  If Air Force could pop into the top 100 (currently at 103), that would help as well.  Beating New Mexico, CSU, and SDSU would give them 1 more top-25 win, 2 more top-50 wins, and 3 more top-100 wins.

Sizing Up the Competition
Pittsburgh and Duke are their biggest competitors for the 3rd and 4th 1-seeds (I am assuming that Ohio State and Kansas are locks at this point).  Texas also has an outside chance too, but I consider that very outside at the moment.  If BYU wins out, Duke would probably have to win the ACC Tournament to be ahead of BYU.  BYU has a better record and Strength of Schedule.  Duke still has to play at resurgent North Carolina.  Pitt's margin for error is probably a bit higher, given that they should win the Big East regular season title, a conference with a realistic shot at getting 11 teams into the NCAA Tournament.  They should win their final two regular season games (at South Florida and home against collapsing Villanova).  I think they only need to win 3 more games to get their #1 seed.

Texas has 3 losses (at Colorado, at USC, at Nebraska) as bad as BYU's worst loss (at New Mexico).  But if they are co-conference champions with KU and win the Big XII Tournament, it'd be tough somewhat to argue that they shouldn't be a 1-seed as well.  Especially with that win at Kansas in hand...

The Knock Against BYU
Complain all BYU fans want, but the question remains (and always will): who has BYU beat?  They beat an SDSU team that the country is not sold on.  I really haven't been sold on them either all season (as I have mentioned on several occasions: way too many close games against way too many not good teams), and the game on Saturday didn't do anything to change that.  BYU beat Arizona, who may very well win the Pac 10, but that isn't anything to brag about right now.  Plus the Wildcats just lost two road games in a row.  They beat Utah State, at home, at the beginning of the season.  This is another team that the country is not sold on either.  They have wins against good computer opponents, but no one considers these top flight teams.

The numbers may tell a great story, but the eyeball test doesn't necessarily.  By the bye, the eyeball test isn't a completely arbitrary way of keeping non-majors down.  It isn't the end-all, be-all, but it is important.  Like it or not, the Committee looks at it.  I think the eyeball test is favorable for BYU, but not for BYU's "quality" wins.  BYU has 4 wins against the top 25, but none of them are Final Four (or maybe even Elite Eight) caliber teams.  They may all go advance to the Sweet 16, but the three teams and four wins are not absolutely infallible.

In Summary
If BYU wins out, including the conference tournament, they have a great chance of being a 1-seed.  Their RPI is high (should be top 3).  Their ranking is high (should be top 3).  Their record is amazing (would be 32-2).  They have Jimmer Fredette (should be National Player of the Year).  It's no guarantee.  But no matter what seed BYU gets, they should be playing in Denver the first weekend and in Anaheim the second weekend.  They would probably be matched up against Kansas or Texas in their bracket as the opposite 1/2, which only matters if BYU makes an Elite Eight run.

If BYU loses another game, they are a 2-seed.  They should still finish in the top 5.  Jimmer should still be NPOY.  They should still have 30 or 31 wins.  They should still play in Denver/Anaheim.  I like it either way.