UNLV-BYU Preview, 2/5/2011

UNLV Coming In
The Rebels have won four of their past 5 games.  The four wins came against 4 of the bottom 5 in the conference.  The loss came to the only team in the top half that they played.  At home.  The key has been balance: when they have it, they win, and when they don't, they lose.  In their MWC wins, at least 5 players generally score 8 or more points.  In their losses, two or three guys are carrying the scoring load.  Their biggest weakness, in my opinion, has been on the boards.  Chace Stanback is the team's leading rebounder, and he's only had one double-digit rebounding performance.  Can Davies, Hartsock, Collinsworth, and Abouo exploit that?  My guess is they can do a good job limiting UNLV's second chance opportunities.

BYU Coming In
The Cougars have seen a lot of great performances by Jimmer Fredette over the past month.  They have seen several good ones from Brandon Davies.  Jackson Emery had a couple, but has been absent offensively for about 2 weeks now.  Hartsock and Collinsworth are noticeably poor shooters of late.  Will a little home-cooking help them get it figured out?  It figures to be a great environment.  It will certainly be a game where a third scoring option will need to present itself.  If Emery isn't hitting threes, or Hartsock draining those baseline jumpers, there is nothing to stop UNLV from doubling Jimmer and seeing how BYU responds.  Can UNLV prevent Jimmer from going off?  And can somebody else do it if BYU needs them to?  My guess is UNLV will be motivated and focused on stopping Jimmer.  Whether that is enough or not, I don't know, but I do know that it's time for Jackson or Noah to step up.

I think BYU is definitely showing signs of that difficult non-conference stretch they set up for themselves.  It was a lot of travel and a lot of road games.  While it may have been good preparation for the NCAA Tournament, it has shown who is too mentally weak (Noah) and who is tpo physically weak (Collinsworth) to handle such a difficult schedule.  They better figure out a way for guys to rest up soon.

Prediction
I feel like Jackson Emery showed some signs against Wyoming of being ready to step back in as the third scoring option.  More than likely he will get some good looks in the game, with so much focus sure to be paid to Fredette, who dropped 39 on UNLV last time.  But revenge will certainly be on UNLV's minds.  They will come ready to push BYU up and down the court.  I think it will be a battle for 40 minutes, and I think for BYU it will come down to someone not named Jimmer or Brandon making a big shot or a big play in the last 5 minutes.  If they do it, BYU will pull it out.  If they don't, the Rebels return the favor and beat BYU on their home floor.  My money is on Jackson having a big night and propelling BYU to the win, but I'd be fine with it being Noah, or Stephen Rogers, or ANYBODY, so long as somebody does it.  Cougars 78, Rebels 74