BYU-SDSU Recap, 2/26/2011

Mo's Keys
1) I said BYU needed to get out to a fast start.  They did, leading by 8 points 10 minutes into the game.
2) I said the team (not counting Jimmer) would need to hit 10 to 12 three-pointers, as Jimmer would have to deal with constant double and triple teams.  They did, going 10-16, an astonishing 62.5%.  On the road.  Against a team in the top 5 in one of the polls.
3) I said that SDSU was going to need to make more shots, and that they wouldn't win the game on offensive rebounds and second-chance points.  They made 3 more shots this game.  And had 3 less offensive rebounds.  That's not good enough.
4) I said that BYU was better prepared to deal with the hype than SDSU.  That was certainly true.  It probably wasn't nerves (it's probably just that SDSU can't shoot), but James Rahon was the only guy the Aztecs could count on to hit from the outside.  But he only ended up with 10 points.  Malcolm Thomas and DJ Gay were non-factors, perhaps a credit to Jackson Emery, Brandon Davies, Noah Hartsock, and the 2-3 zone, but perhaps it was the fact that this was the biggest game any of them had ever played in.

Thoughts
If Jimmer scored 40+ points again, BYU was going to be in trouble.  It needed to be a team effort, and it was.  In the final 10 minutes, Jimmer was doubled as soon as he crossed half-court and forced to give up the ball: boy, did that plan backfire.  BYU's "other guys" hit 3 threes in the final 10 minutes.  Frankly, it was the type of game I expected BYU to play at home, with role players stepping up and feeling the crowd.  I suppose it is more encouraging that this happened in such a big game on the road.  The "other guys" can handle anything too.

I feel a lot more vindicated in my explanation earlier this week that BYU has a better chance of tournament success than SDSU.  If 40% shooting is what the Aztecs could do today, against a less athletic team, at home, in the biggest game in their program's history, how will they win several consecutive neutral site games against more athletic teams?  If they struggled so hard against BYU's 2-3 zone, imagine how bad it would be if they saw Syracuse early in the tournament.

Looking Ahead
BYU should be the number 1 RPI team tomorrow, though maybe they are still #2, barely behind Kansas.  They should jump into the top 5 in the polls on Monday, with Texas' come-from-ahead loss at CU.  They have officially emerged as a legitimate 1-seed candidate, but that will require 5 more wins and an MWC Tournament Championship, at the minimum.  Even then, it may take help from others losing ahead of them.

They should absolutely win their final two regular season games.  They will get the 1-seed in the MWC Tournament and be conference champions with the best ever MWC record.  They should advance to the MWC Tournament Final, though I am a little bit leary of a semifinal matchup with Colorado State.  I am buying them as at least a 2-seed in the NCAA Tournament now, assuming they win at least 3 more games.  They are ahead of Texas now, in my opinion, and will be unless/until Texas beats Kansas in the Big XII Championship game.  As I was typing this, Duke lost at Virginia Tech, so BYU should be ahead of them too: BYU sports a better record with a tougher strength of schedule (according to the computers).

Jimmer for NPOY
Jimmer's performance today should solidify his lead in the National Player of the Year debate.  He "only" had 25 points, but had 9 assists and 2 steals.  He led his team to a conference championship on the road with most of the college basketball-watching nation eyeing the game.  He already had a huge lead.  I don't see how it could get any smaller with his performance tonight.  Especially with Nolan Smith having a terrible last 5 minutes in Duke's loss tonight.  Jimmer went on the road and got it done.  His competition failed to get it done.  Jared Sullinger cannot do enough against woeful Indiana tomorrow to catch up either.