As mentioned in my previous post (http://mo-knows-sports.blogspot.com/2011/01/byu-and-bcs-in-2011-part-i.html), an 11-1 or 12-0 BYU team would have to fight for one of 3 at-large bids to a BCS game. A big obstacle to obtaining an at-large bid is that the highest-ranked non-BCS conference champion, should it finish in the top 12 (or top 16 if the ACC and Big East Champ is ranked lower), gets an automatic bid and reduces the at-large pool from 3 to 2. I have assumed that the SEC will place two teams in the BCS, as it has down every year that I can recall.
The MWC Champion is definitely a contender to take one of the three coveted spots. The MWC Champion has played in a BCS game for 3 consecutive years. The 2 years prior to that, BYU was the MWC Champion and was not in consideration for the BCS because the WAC Champion was ranked higher both years (Hawaii and Boise State). Conference USA could potentially pose a threat in 2011, with the emergence of UCF and the return of QB Case Keenum at Houston for a rare 6th year.
The MWC Champion Contenders
Boise State
They have always been a quality team, but this year they will join the MWC and face a stiffer schedule than in years past. They lost a ton from this year's 12-1, top 10 finisher. On offense, Austin Pettis, Titus Young, and Jeremy Avery are the big names that they lost. They return a good number of major contributors, however: QB Kellen Moore, RBs Doug Martin and D.J. Harper (who had a season-ending injury in game 3), WR Tyler Shoemaker, and TE Kyle Efaw. They also return 4 of 5 OL. They lost their Offensive Coordinator to the University of Texas.
Defensively, they lost all the big names (except LB Byron Hout, who is more of a big name for the punch he took to start 2009, not for his actual play on the field), but still have good players returning. The losses include DE Ryan Winterswyk, LB Derrell Acrey, and DBs Winston Venable and Jeron Johnson. The big names they bring back are NT Billy Winn, LB JC Percy, and DB George Iloka.
They lose K/P Kyle Brotzman. They lose KR Titus Young. PR Chris Potter returns.
Their schedule is substantially more difficult in 2011: home games against Georgia, Nevada, Air Force, SDSU and road games at Fresno State and TCU. However, at 11-1, they would qualify for an automatic bid to the BCS, assuming they were the MWC Champion. And 11-1 is not out of the realm of possibilities by any means, even with a tougher schedule and the personnel losses mentioned above. They are moving to a new conference, which can be an advantage: no one is familiar with what they do.
TCU
The names that carried TCU the past 3 seasons are gone. QB Andy Dalton, WRs Antoine Hicks, Jeremy Kerley, and Jimmy Young, TE Evan Frosch, and 4 of the top 6 OL graduate. They return all of the RBs, WR Josh Boyce, and FB Luke Shivers. Casey Paschall appears to be the heir apparent at QB for the Horned Frogs. He is 6-9 in his career with a TD. He also has 15 rushing attempts for 94 yards and 2 TDs. His running ability will be as important as his passing ability: Dalton was the 3rd or 4th best rusher on TCU each of the past 3 seasons.
Defensively, they also lose a lot from the Rose Bowl winning team. They lose 3 of the top 6 on the DL and 4 of the top 6 in the Secondary. But they return both of their LBs.
Special teams loses PR/KR Kerley, but brings back both their K and P.
The schedule is easier for them than the 2010 one was, at least as it now stands. They still have two games left to fill on the schedule. They lose BYU and Utah in conference play, but gain Boise State. The non-conference schedule currently includes games at Baylor and at home against Texas Tech and SMU. They have to travel to Air Force and San Diego State. As with Boise State, at 11-1 with an MWC Championship, they are a shoe-in for the automatic BCS bid. I don't believe they can go 11-1 in 2011 though.
Air Force/SDSU
Both of these programs seem to be building momentum. Both return most of their key players from teams that played well all season and finished with bowl wins against quality competition. SDSU pushed TCU to the wire in Fort Worth, but loses their Head Coach. Air Force always pushes TCU at home, where they get them in 2011. Both teams would likely have to be 12-0 to finish in the top 12/16. This is not likely. They have to play each other, Boise State, and TCU in conference, plus have difficult non-conference games too. Air Force plays at Navy and at Notre Dame. SDSU plays at Michigan and against an improving Washington State and Fresno State at home. However, I think either of these teams could win the MWC, so they deserve to be mentioned here.
Conference USA Champion
Conventional wisdom says the C-USA Champ has no chance to get the automatic BCS bid. However, UCF, Tulsa, and Houston have all pushed the envelope the past few seasons. UCF plays at BYU. If they win that game, BYU is out of the picture. If they lose that game, UCF is out of the picture. Tulsa is replacing its head coach, two seasons after replacing its O-Coordinator who just led Auburn to a National Championship. Houston gets Case Keenum back, but is he enough to help a 5-7 team become a 13-0 team? That would have to be the standard for C-USA: 13-0. The blessing and curse of their conference championship game: it is one more game to survive but one more game that can build your ranking while the MWC Champion is idle. I don't see C-USA being a big threat to jump into the BCS in 2011.
As a side note: there has been a lot of talk about the MWC and C-USA champions meeting for an automatic BCS bid. That is a completely ridiculous notion, and one that the BCS would NEVER, EVER agree to. If the MWC or C-USA champion is deserving, they will get an automatic bid anyway, but that is not every season, and the BCS will never offer that every season. Besides, what has C-USA done to prove that they deserve to be in the discussion anyway?
The Non-AQs in Summation
Boise State going 11-1 and winning the MWC is BYU's biggest threat from the non-AQs for a spot in the BCS. TCU will not likely go 11-1 or 12-0. SDSU or Air Force will not go 12-0. The future C-USA champion will be out of the discussion by October, since all of the contenders will have at least one loss by then, as they always do in C-USA. Of course, BYU could be well out of the discussion by then as well.
What to Expect in Part III
A look at the BCS conferences capable of sending a second team to the BCS and how BYU would stack up against the potential teams from those conferences.
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