The Rub
BYU has as many wins in conference as Wyoming does wins over Division I programs (6). Wyoming went 1-6 in January. BYU went 6-1. BYU was 3-1 on the road in January. Wyoming was 1-2 at home. Wyoming has won once in their last 7 games. BYU has lost once in their past 11 games. BYU averages 84 ponits/game. Wyoming averages 66 points/game. Wyoming is bad at historic levels, even for their average program. BYU is good at historic levels, even for their good program.
Wyoming Coming In
Wyoming is on a bit of a cold streak, having not scored over 70 points since December 20th. They have given up 70 points in 5 of 7 conference games. They have a pretty young team, with only one senior in the rotation. They don't have any depth. They don't have much talent. They don't score much. They don't rebound well. They turn the ball over too much. They can't make shots from anywhere, excluding their free throw line where they shoot a not-horrible 69% as a team. 6'5" Desmar Jackson had 26 points in the home loss to BYU last season. No other returning Cowboy had much to crow about against BYU, except C Adam Waddell who recorded 15 points in the loss in Provo. He has been battling injuries this season and hasn't played very well in conference. So naturally he will go off for 20 points and hit 3 clutch threes down the stretch against BYU...
BYU Coming In
This is definitely the kind of game where BYU can get back to their normal offense, and get out of "how can we help Jimmer score" mode. Jimmer has averaged over 22 shots/game in conference play, compared with just 17.5/game in the non-conference. In fact, coming into conference play, Jimmer had only attempted 22 shots 4 times. All were road or neutral site games. He has been good and has certainly been getting it done, but I believe that BYU is at its best when there are multiple players touching the ball every possession. It also gives them their best opportunity in the NCAA Tournament. Yes, Davies can score in the post. Hartsock can hit 15-foot jumpers. Jackson Emery can hit spot-up threes. Kyle Collinsworth can drive to the basket (and I'm sure he has hit lay-ups this season, I just can't remember the last time he hit one). Those shots need to move from "can" happen to "do" happen. And with regularity too. It was working early in the season. It can work again against Wyoming. I hope to see Jimmer's shot total below 20 in Wednesday night's game. It would be nice to see two other players get at least 10 attempts, which hasn't happened since the Utah game, and that is the only time in conference play it has happened (it happened 6 times in 15 non-conference games).
One note about BYU: as the first shot goes for Noah Hartsock and Jackson Emery, so goes the rest of their game. If they make the first one, they tend to make a few more. If they miss that first one, they tend to miss 3 or 4 before finally dropping one, and if they don't hit two or three in a row at that point, they shoot below 50% for the duration of the game. It must be mental, but it is definitely a trend I have noticed in conference play that could prove crucial at home against UNLV, New Mexico, and CSU, plus the game at SDSU.
Prediction
I feel a bit like Clubber Lang from Rocky III when asked about his prediction for his match with Rocky: pain. This could be painful for Wyoming fans, that is. Collinsworth is the type of player who could go off big in this game. Wyoming traditionally struggles against SF with penetrating ability, especially when a team like BYU (a team with good 3-point shooters to kick out to) has someone at that position that can get to the rim. He just needs to make his free throws because he will get fouled. Hartsock could also have a big game as well. Realistically, any Cougar starter is capable of having a 20-point game in Laramie, though I wouldn't bet on Jackson Emery since reporters have been reminding him all week how well he usually shoots in Laramie. [I think that's an omen for 1-7 with 5 points on a 3-pointer and a random trip to the free throw line, but that's just the cynic in me that returned after blowing a 13-point second half lead at New Mexico.] I think two or three of them need to, if for no other reason than to restore confidence going into UNLV on Saturday. BYU wins big on the road. Cougars 85, Cowboys 67.
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