Wednesday, February 23, 2011

State of BYU after CSU, 2/23/2011

Two Teams
In terms of wins and losses at this point in the season, this is the best BYU team ever.  Through 28 games, no BYU team has ever won 26 games.  One could also argue that through 28 games, this is probably one of the most difficult schedules (in the aggregate) that BYU has played.  So an argument could be made that this is BYU's best team ever.  It is certainly Coach Rose's best team ever.  However, this is the most inconsistent BYU team I can recall, and that's just within a single game, not talking about from game to game.

Every BYU team has games where they don't play nearly as well as they did the game before.  I am not talking about that kind of inconsistent.  I am talking about how this team, within a minute's time, can look every bit the top ten team their ranking indicates and then resemble a pick-up game in a suburban LDS Cultural Hall.  One minute, BYU is getting contributions from Abouo, Hartsock, Emery, and Davies, with Jimmer playing completely under control.  The next minute, Jimmer is dribbling all over the place (like that punk feaux-streetballer that always shows up for the aforementioned pick-up game who thinks it's his duty to take 50% of his shots and 75% of the dribbles, while simultaneously playing point guard and center, as a one-man full-court press.  You all know the type of guy I'm talking about), while every Cougar goes to sleep on the defensive end.  Now, one could make the case that BYU is only playing as inconsistent as the refs have been the past month.  I would certainly be remiss if I didn't say that the game tonight was one of the worst ref-ing jobs I have seen in a long time.  Not biased, just bad.  This is becoming a disturbing trend the past few weeks though...I am amazed they called 53 fouls in the game tonight, I think they missed at least that many, while also calling several questionable travel calls while missing a 4-step travel that resulted in a wide-open layup.

The game tonight was certainly not the first time BYU has been so inconsistent in the past month.  But then this fact remains: they are still finding ways to win games.  Tonight, they dominated about 12 minutes of the game, CSU dominated about 8 minutes, and the other 20 were pretty sloppy.  Yet BYU scored 84 points on only 40% shooting against an NCAA Tournament Bubble Team (i.e. a team better than their first round opponent will probably be).  Maybe the ability to play through such wild inconsistency and still win (with the game never really in doubt the final 10 minutes) is what makes this the best BYU team of the last 30 years.

Five Key Players
First off, four players finished in double figures, which was important.  1) Brandon Davies finished with more free throws than rebounds.  And he had 15 rebounds.  2) Jackson Emery had 4 steals, including one at the most crucial point in the game, and a block to go with his 11 points.  3) Abouo hit a three, had two very important rebounds (and one other board too...), two blocks, a steal, 9 points, and an assist, with zero turnovers.  4) Collinsworth had 8 rebounds, all defensive, to go with his 3 assists and a block.  5) Jimmer, despite overdribbling, overshooting, taking triple teams head on (and losing time after time), finished with 34 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 2 steals.  He forced everything.  He looked bad doing it.  He got blocked 3-5 times (I lost count).  When he beat the double-team he held on to the ball a step too long, which is where most of his 8 turnovers happened.  He wasn't getting calls, but he kept playing like he was.  He acted like a true ballhog, especially for someone shooting only 36% for the game.  Jimmer did almost everything wrong.  And finished with 34 points.  And still got several fouls called on CSU's big men which is probably ultimately what cost CSU the game.

Comparing Tourney Chances
A lot of people have stated that SDSU is better built for an NCAA Tournament run than is BYU.  They have size and athleticism.  They rebound extremely well.  They defend even better.  However, I would make the argument that both are very good teams.  But BYU has more just as good a chance, or better.  They have more NCAA Tournament experience.  BYU also has the one piece that SDSU does not: a player that can completely control everything about the game.  SDSU has no Jimmer.  Kawhi Leonard, DJ Gay, or Malcolm Thomas COULD take over a game for the Aztecs and carry the team.  But with the game on the line, would you rather have Chris Bosh or Kobe Bryant?  I am not saying Jimmer is Kobe by any means, nor that Chris Bosh couldn't carry his team in the fourth quarter.  I am saying I would rather have the guy I know CAN carry the team than the guy I know COULD carry the team.

In the Gold Medal game at the last Olympics, who did Team USA turn to down the stretch when things were looking dire?  It wasn't Lebron, D-Wade, or Cry-Melo.  They didn't feed the post.  No, not even close.  Kobe took over the team.  Kobe won the Gold Medal for USA.  Everyone knew he was going to try to do it, and he did it anyway, and there was no stopping him.  SDSU has some great players and any one of them could carry the team through a game, but they don't have a go-to guy that you know can get it done in crunchtime with everything on the line.  They are an amazingly talented team.  But another knock on them is that they haven't been there before.  For the Aztecs, their NCAA Tournament First Round game will be pretty much everyone's second NCAA Tournament game.  For their outside scoring threat James Rahon, it's his first-ever NCAA Tournament game.  That's the guy you are trusting to keep the defense honest.

For Jimmer it's NCAA Tournament game #5 (averaged 22 points/game in the first 4).  For Jackson, Noah, and Abouo it's #4 (James Anderson also dressed for 4 NCAA Tournament games).  For Davies and Magnusson it's #3 (Zylstra dressed for 3).  That is big.  BYU has THE guy and they have the experience.  When non-BCS schools make a deep run in the tournament (Butler, George Mason, Davidson, Gonzaga) it takes those two things more than athleticism and rebounding.  In the tournament, everyone has that (well, except for BYU and some of the 14-16 seeds).  I think that's what gives BYU a better chance at a long tournament life.  However, especially after BYU's up-and-down performance tonight, I'm not putting either of them in my Final Four.  I would like to see SDSU win ONE NCAA Tournament game before I pick them to win four (they are 0-6 in their program's history).  I'd also like to see a BYU player dunk in traffic before I'd pick them to win more than two...

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