BYU Number 1 in the RPI Today. Again.

BYU woke up this morning with a number 1 ranking in the RPI for the second straight day.  While that streak will likely come to an end tomorrow morning, with #2 RPI Kansas currently leading #30 RPI Mizzou as I type, I thought I'd take a quick look at how they have done it.  BYU, after all, does not play in one of the Big 6 Conferences.  BYU did not play a single team in the non-conference that was ranked at the time they played them.  They have only played one team in the current top 10.  And they have 2 losses.  So how is their SOS in the top 10?  How are they able to be rated ahead of teams with better records that play in substantially tougher conferences?

Away From Home
BYU has only played 9 true home games to this point in the season.  In 14 Division I non-conference games, they played 5 home games, 3 road games, and 6 neutral site games.  At this point they have also "benefited" from having an unbalanced conference schedule, playing only 3 home games in their first 8 with 5 road games.  Road wins count more than neutral site wins.  Neutral site wins count more than home wins.  They have done a great job racking up road and neutral site wins: 7 road wins, 5 neutral site wins, compared to 9 home wins (in 9 tries).

Avoid the Riff-Raff
BYU has played 23 Division I games.  Only 4 of the opponents are outside of the top 200 of the RPI.  One of them was a conference game (Wyoming), so they had no choice.  Two of them were part of their Thanksgiving Weekend tournament (Mississippi Valley State and Chicago State).  And prior to the season, no one anticipated Fresno State being outside of the top 200 in the RPI.  BYU has benefited from an improved MWC as well.  CSU is currently in the top 50.  Air Force is currently in the top 100.  BYU also played only 7 games against teams ranked 101-200 in the RPI.  That means more than half of their games to this point in the season were against teams in the RPI top 100 (12 of 23).

Ahead of Them Still
BYU has already played 12 of 23 games against top 100 teams in the RPI.  They have 7 regular season games left: 4 home games and 3 road games.  The road games are at #88 Air Force, #154 TCU, and #4 SDSU.  The home games are against #144 Utah, #46 CSU, #60 New Mexico, and #270 Wyoming.  In other words: 4 of 7 games will be against top-100 teams, for 16 out of 30 games in the regular season.  In the MWC Tournament, BYU will likely get #144 Utah or #154 TCU in their first game (or possibly even a #88 Air Force team), then face a top 50 opponent in the second round with either #28 UNLV, #46 CSU, or possibly dropping as low as #60 New Mexico (who would probably be higher than 60 if they survive to that point).  If BYU wins that game, they will certainly be facing a top 50 opponent in the MWC Championship.

The Aggregate
BYU should finish the season with more than half of their games against top 100 teams (17/18 of 32/33).  10/11 of the 17/18 would be away from home.  They are currently 10-2 against the top 100 (5-0 at home, 5-2 away from home).  They could also possibly play as many as 12/13 games against the top 50, 8/9 of which would be away from home.  They are currently 7-1 against the top 50 (3-0 at home, 4-1 away from home).  That is impressive for a non-BCS conference team.  It is also the secret to BYU's success in the RPI this season: you don't have to play a lot of top 10 teams, as long as you play a lot of non-home games against non-bottom 10 teams.

The Seed
If BYU continues to win and gets a good/lucky draw in the MWC Tournament with two games against top 50 RPI teams, the Cougars should find themselves with a top-5 RPI ranking to end the season and a great chance for a 2 or 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament.  At 29-4 or better, with the potential National Player of the Year, a top-5 RPI ranking, and a top 20 strength of schedule, it would be tough for the NCAA Tournament Committee to pass up the Cougars this year.  Right now, most people project them as a 2-seed in Denver/Tucson.  It's still as precarious a seed as a 14-point second-half lead is in Albuquerque, but I'd rather be there than where BYU typically is at this juncture, sitting in the high single-digits somewhere out East.