Colorado State, RPI Rank: 47
NCAA Tournament Chances: 25%
Highest Possible Seed: 10
Lowest Possible Seed: NIT
How They Get a 10: They missed a golden opportunity against SDSU on Wednesday. Now their only chances for big wins come on the road at BYU and at SDSU, and then in the MWC Tournament. They also get UNLV at home, however, that win would not be enough to catapult them into the NCAAs. They need to get at least two wins against SDSU/BYU (including the MWC Tournament), they need to beat UNLV, and they need to win the rest of their games against hte rest of the MWC. Period.
How They Go NIT: Well, they are already there, so they don't have to do anything. They do probably need to win at least 4 more games to ensure an NIT bid. That would put them at least 19-12.
New Mexico, RPI Rank: 53
NCAA Tournament Chances: 10%
Highest Possible Seed: 12
Lowest Possible Seed: CIT (tourney below NIT)
How They Get a 12: Win the MWC Tournament. They have a long way to go for at-large consideration. They would need to go 7-1 at worst in the second half of conference play, with at least two wins in games at SDSU, BYU, and CSU, plus two wins in the MWC Tournament. They already have 7 losses, so if they don't win the MWC Tourney they would have at least 8. With a bad non-conference schedule, that is too many, maybe even if they go 8-0 in the second half in MWC play.
How They Miss the NIT: Continue to lose on the road. They are solidly in the NIT right now, so it would take a home loss to UNLV, road losses at the Big Three, one other inexplicable MWC loss, and an early exit from the MWC Tournament to miss the NIT completely. I know I'll be cheering for that to happen every game, but that's nothing new. Alford is a punk. His teams play like him too...
Air Force, RPI Rank: 106
NCAA Tournament Chances: Must win MWC Tournament
Highest Possible Seed: 14
Lowest Possible Seed: No post-season
How They Get a 14: Automatic bid by winning MWC.
How They Stay Home: Play as they have been. They currently have very little chance of securing any postseason appearance, including the CIT.
Utah, RPI Rank: 132
TCU, RPI Rank: 164
Wyoming, RPI Rank: 265
See summary for Air Force. Replace 14 with 15/16 for Wyoming. It would take something truly special down the stretch for any of these teams to make any postseason.
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