Looking to MWC Tourney, 2/11/2011

8/9 Seeds
This looks like a lock for a TCU-Wyoming play-in game, unless Wyoming beats TCU and wins at Utah, then they could feasibly move up to 7th (not gonna happen).  Both teams are 1-9.  They do play each other though, so the winner has a leg-up to wear the home uniforms in the MWC tournament.  From the #1 seed's perspective, they would rather see TCU win the play-in game, as they are 100 spots higher in the RPI, so it won't damage their Strength of Schedule as much.

6/7 Seeds
Utah has all but locked the 7th seed up.  Air Force holds the tie-breaker, and is one game ahead in the standings, so the Utes would have to win two more games than Air Force does the rest of the season to take over 6th place.  Utah has, at most, two wins left on the schedule, so if Air Force can win even one more game, they would wrap up 6th place.  Air Force still has games against Wyoming and TCU.

3 through 5 Seeds
CSU has the leg up for the 3-seed right now, as they host both UNM and UNLV.  All three teams have at least two tough road games the rest of the season: CSU at BYU and at SDSU, UNLV at CSU and at UNM, UNM at CSU, at SDSU, and at BYU.  So CSU has the advantage right now, but any of the three could get the top spot.  CSU is 6-3, UNLV 6-4, and UNM 5-4.  There could be a lot of clarity after this weekend with New Mexico at CSU and UNLV hosting SDSU.  If CSU and SDSU win, 3-seed in all likelihood belongs to the Rams.  If New Mexico and UNLV win, it is even more jumbled than before with all having 4 conference losses.

1/2 Seeds
These two belong to BYU and SDSU.  The only question will be which order is it going to be?  If SDSU wins at UNLV this Saturday, they would have a serious leg-up.  BYU would have to beat SDSU to have any chance to tie or beat them in the standings.  SDSU should not lose any other game on their schedule besides the potential losses at UNLV and against BYU.  So, 15-1, 14-2, or 13-3.

If UNLV beats SDSU, BYU has a slight leg-up, seeing as how they should be able to win every other conference game but the one at SDSU.  Both would then finish at 14-2, even if SDSU wins the game against BYU.  If both teams end up in a tie for first, the tie-breakers are as follows: 1) head-to-head (I assume they split), 2) compare record against 3rd-place team, if their records are identical against the 3rd place team, they go to 4th, 5th, etc.  One note, if two teams tie for 4th, they skip down to 6th place as all tie-breakers are decided from the top down (i.e. can't break the 4th place tie until the 1st place tie is broken).  After exhausting those options, RPI is used to determine the seeding.  BYU would hold the advantage in record against UNLV, SDSU would hold it against New Mexico.  BYU should hold the advantage in RPI at season's end as well.  So their hope would be that UNLV finishes tied with, or ahead of, New Mexico in the standings, to guarantee them the 1-seed.  If they are tied, RPI would break the tie.  If they are ahead, BYU's 2-0 record against UNLV would break the tie.  If New Mexico is ahead, SDSU's 2-0 record against the Lobos would break the tie.  That is, of course, assuming BYU wants the 1-seed...UNLV is likely playing in the 4/5 matchup (or at least I believe they will), so they would play the 1-seed in Round 2.  BYU would probably just as soon let two other teams have the chance to knock them off than have to try to do it themselves on Friday.  I believe a 4/5 New Mexico vs. UNLV game would eliminate UNLV, so BYU wouldn't have to face UNLV anyway...