CSU-BYU Preview, 2/23/2011

Tournament-Like Game
This game against Colorado State is pretty similar to BYU's first round NCAA Tournament game.  It is an opponent they should beat, but is still probably good enough to be in the tournament.  It is a "desperate" team fighting for its postseason life, just like the tournament will be.  It's a balanced team, with a solid starting five at every position.  There are some matchups that even favor CSU.  The biggest difference between this game and the first round of the NCAA Tournament?  This one is at home instead of a neutral site.  As my father so aptly pointed out in a comment on the last post: if BYU can't win this one, they don't deserve a high seed in the tournament.  I go one step further, if BYU can't win this one (and easily), you may want to think twice about how far you put them in your tournament bracket.

Last Time
BYU outscored this CSU team on the road last time, 94-85.  Since scoring 85 against BYU in Fort Collins, CSU has scored 69, 74, 54, 59, 68, 69, and 61, with a 5-2 record in that span.  BYU has scored 71, 77, 69, 78, 90, 72, and 79, going 6-1 since that game.  While both teams offense has dipped since that shootout, BYU has maintained a higher level of scoring (with 4 of the 7 games on the road, compared to 3 of 7 for the Rams).  And Jimmer scored under 30 points in 5 of the 7 games.  So they are scoring more, from more places.  CSU has become very big-man oriented the past few games.  That leads to high-percentage shooting, but if Davies and Hartsock avoid foul trouble, CSU doesn't have other scoring options.  The other factor is that BYU's 2-3 defense has been better of late, which will make it more difficult to score inside as well.

Jimmermania
This is the part of the first half of the conference schedule where Jimmer really got going.  Part of that was the need, with so many other guys struggling the first round.  Part of it was the competitive level of Jimmer, knowing that these are the three teams (CSU, SDSU, and New Mexico) that BYU needs to beat.  Other guys aren't struggling right now, most of the team is playing well.  However, BYU still needs this win, so I would expect Jimmer to still do some Jimmerific things.  For a stretch he was overdribbling, overshooting, and trying to do too much.  He can still perform at an insanely high level within the framework of the offense.  I think he lost sight of that a little bit for those few games he wasn't getting the calls.  I would expect a game where he shoots a higher percentage, turns the ball over less, and gets more assists.  If not, it is probably a bad omen going into Saturday's game at SDSU.

Keys and Prediction
BYU should win this game running away.  It is a team that they beat on the road by 9, with two starters in foul trouble, in the most electric atmosphere CSU has had at home in a long time.  BYU fans should worry somewhat about Ogide who had a double-double against BYU the first time.  Wes Eikmeier also torched BYU for 25 points, including 5 three pointers.  However, Eikmeier's best scoring output on the road in MWC play was 14 points and 2 threes.  I think Collinsworth, Abouo, and Emery will have a little more pride and hold him to a handful of contested baskets this time around.  Ogide and Franklin are the keys for BYU: hold those two to under 35 points combined and BYU should hold CSU to under 70.  If they do that, they'll win easily and move their record against the RPI top 50 to 8-1, with a 4-0 at home.  Cougars 84, Rams 66.