Seeing as how we are at the halfway point of the conference season, I thought it was a good opportunity to recap where MWC teams stand as far as the postseason is concerned. I will go in order of CBSSportsline RPI. I will do this 3 teams at a time.
San Diego State, RPI Rank: 2
NCAA Tournament Chances: 100%
Highest Possible Seed: 1
Worst Possible Seed: 5
How They Get a 1: Win out. They simply cannot lose again. They must beat BYU at home, win at UNLV, and win the MWC Tournament. They will still need help from other potential 1-seeds with multiple losses. The MWC is not strong enough for a team to play their way into a 1-seed from the MWC without help.
How They Get a 5: Lose at UNLV, lose to BYU, drop another random game, and bow out in round 2 of the MWC Tournament. None of those are out of the realm of possibilities. But I think it highly unlikely that they do all 4.
Mo's Best Guess on SDSU: I think they will probably lose twice more and finish about 29/30-3, depending on the MWC Tournament result. I think that will put them right smack-dab in the middle of the 2-3 seed discussion. With their program lacking an NCAA Tournament win in their history, I think the Committee probably punishes them with a 3-seed, even though they aren't supposed to!
BYU, RPI Rank: 3
NCAA Tournament Chances: 100%
Best Possible Seed: 2
Worst Possible Seed: 7
How They Get a 2: They could lose one more game (at SDSU) and still get a 2-seed, but they'll need to win the MWC Tournament.
How They Get a 7: Lay more eggs on the road like they did last night at Wyoming. Losing at home to UNLV or New Mexico would also be damaging.
Mo's Best Guess on BYU: Given the funk they have been in the last 50 minutes (even longer for some of the players: Noah, Jackson, Collinsworth, and the entire bench), anything could happen. I still find it difficult to believe they will lose more than 3 games between now and the end of the MWC Tournament. 27-4 or 28-3 going into the MWC Tournament, and with Jimmer in the tourney, they could certainly win it. BYU will probably end up deserving around a 3 or 4-seed, and get the usual treatment from the Committee and end up with a 5-seed playing as far away from Provo as the Tournament can put them. In all seriousness, BYU probably gets a 4-seed, unless they really turn it around (or really don't).
UNLV, RPI Rank: 31
NCAA Tournament Chances: 90%
Highest Possible Seed: 6
Lowest Possible Seed: NIT
How They Get a 6: Win at BYU on Saturday, or beat SDSU at home, or both. They must win the Conference Tournament. It is a blessing and a curse: the Rebels have a better shot to win the tournament, but they are also penalized more heavily if they don't.
How They Go NIT: They have been on the verge of a collapse for a while now. They could easily lose 5 regular season games (@BYU, SDSU, @CSU, @New Mexico, @Utah), and will probably lose at least 2 of them, if not 3 or 4. If they drop 4 of them and don't win the MWC Tourney, it could very well be NIT!
Mo's Best Guess on UNLV: they lose 2 or 3 more regular season games and end up in the 4/5 game in the MWC Tournament. They will lose in the first or second round of the MWC Tournament and will narrowly be added to the NCAA Tournament Field as an 11 or 12-seed.
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