Saturday, February 12, 2011

Post Utah-BYU Thoughts, 2/12/2011

Toying With Them
I said BYU would either be focused and win by 30 or toy with the Utes and win by 15.  They definitely toyed with them.  How many shots did BYU miss within 5 feet of the basket tonight?  It had to have been 10 or more.  If BYU hit even half of those shots, they would have shot 50% and won by 20 or more.  Brandon Davies was playing scared of the 7-foot twin towers, even though the pair ended up with only 2 blocks between them (maybe it was because of Davies' akward, ugly-looking fade-away hook shots).  They got solid contributions from a lot of guys: Abouo's 22 carried the Cougars in the first half, Jackson's 6 steals allowed BYU to get in transition all game long (18 points), and the 30 rebounds from the BYU 3's, 4's, and 5's kept Utah from getting too many second chance points (9 for the game).

I Hate the Spurs
Jimmer managed to get 23 points despite being harassed all game long.  But Jimmer has got to stop whingeing about calls.  The past two games, he hasn't been getting some of the calls that he usually gets and he has let officials know about it.  In some cases, he has very valid points, but he needs to adjust to how the game is being called.  If he drives into the lane twice and gets mauled without a foul called, get a little more creative.  He is a tough guy to officiate because he is involved in so much contact.  But come on, just play Tim Duncan/Manu Ginobili/Tony Parker and quit your yapping at the refs.  When the ref tells your coach you are getting out of control, it's time to look inside yourself and find a more Jimmer-ific way...

Big Game Got Bigger
With SDSU winning in Vegas tonight, both teams should enter the game (broadcast by CBS network TV on February 26th at noon MST) on big winning streaks.  SDSU has New Mexico, at Air Force, and a bye prior to the game.  They should enter at 27-1 and may possibly be in the top 5.  BYU has a bye, plays at TCU, and hosts Colorado State.  They should enter at 26-2, though they may not be any higher than they currently are (and may even drop a spot with continued high profile wins by Notre Dame and Georgetown).  The winner of the game should win the conference title outright and probably finish 15-1 in the MWC.  It is certainly unlikely that either of the two drops any other games at this point.  [Though if I had to pick: New Mexico could win at SDSU if they can defend in transition better than they did in Albuquerque, and CSU could win at BYU if Davies and Hartsock get in foul trouble.]

MWC Tourney Update
Winner of the BYU-SDSU game should be the 1-seed at this point, barring any major upsets.  If CSU beats UNLV in Fort Collins, they should lock-up the 3-seed.  I've already said I think UNLV-New Mexico are 4/5 (and New Mexico knocks UNLV off in the first round), and that the bottom stays the same: Air Force, Utah, Wyoming, and TCU are 6-9, probably in that order, unless Wyoming wins at Utah on Wednesday.

Scouting Potential Second Round Competition
I watched the second half of the Kentucky-Vanderbilt game today.  If BYU does get a 2-4 seed, they will likely get someone like those two teams as their second round opponent.  My first thought was: BYU would have a very difficult time stopping a team like Vanderbilt.  They move the ball around from side-to-side and attack any vulnerable areas.  If any BYU defender is weak, or even if a great defender just slightly out of position, they would exploit that in a heartbeat, and BYU would have difficulty recovering in time.  They have a couple of great three-point shooters, one or two phenomenal penetrators, and some highly skilled big men.  No way BYU could stop all three without foul trouble.  James Anderson and Logan Magnusson would get eaten alive.
My second thought was: BYU would find the going tough against a defense like Kentucky's.  They combine extreme high-pressure with athleticism and recovery ability.  They get in your face and if you beat them they can still get in front of you.  BYU would have to force a lot of turnovers and get out in transition.  Even then, the Wildcats have leapers at all five positions so an easy lay-up could turn into a block and get the ball going the other way for a lay-up.
My third thought was: BYU better hope to get those teams in Denver, at altitude, playing 2 games in three days.  On a neutral court below 2,000 feet, BYU would have to hope to outscore Vanderbilt and hope their 2-3 zone was baffling enough to prevent UK from getting to 60 points.  But Kentucky has a tight rotation, and, as a 5-7 seed, is going to have a more difficult first round game as it is anyway.

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