What To Expect From BYU Sports in 2011

Basketball
Jimmer Fredette and Company are in the midst of a very special year.  They head into 2011 at 13-1.  They have one more game that does not count against a Division II school before starting 16 conference games, before the Conference Tournament.  I would anticipate a lot of animosity hurled at them in all of their road games, this being their last time through the MWC.  However, Dave Rose is always good for at least 12 conference wins, but never more than 14.  SDSU and UNLV will be tough for all four of those games.  New Mexico and Colorado State could all be tough road games, especially with both of those games being played in January.  That could not have set up any worse for BYU, for reasons I will explain in my MWC Conference Preview next week.

Expectations
Expect BYU to finish in the top 3 of the MWC, probably in the top 2.  Expect them to win at least one game in the MWC Tournament, and possibly two.  Expect them to make the NCAA Tournament as a single-digit seed and advance to the Round of 32.  Beyond that, they could win the MWC Regular Season Championship, if they survive January with a 6-1 conference record or better.  They could win the MWC Tournament, if they do not have to play both SDSU and UNLV.  They could get to the Sweet 16, if their second round opponent is a 4-seed or worse, and the Elite Eight given the same scenario in the third round.

Football
Jake Heaps and his Cougars look very promising heading into the 2011 season.  One way to gauge their season: opponents and bowl results.  They beat Washington and SDSU, who won bowl games convincingly (and in the same stadium).  They lost to bowl-game winners Air Force and Florida State.  They also lost to Utah, who had the misfortune of playing one of the best teams in the country without their starting QB in a bowl game.  They also lost to Rose Bowl-bound TCU and Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl-bound Nevada, both of whom are favorites against BCS conference opponents.  Utah State is the only head-scratcher, but that also changed the course of the season.

They bring back everybody on offense, minus one (or two) OL and Luke Ashworth.  More details on this later.  We only have 7 months to hash this all out...

They lose 3 guys in the secondary, which has always been the weakness of BYU anyway.  They bring back 7 experienced DL, including a USC transfer.  They bring back 8 experienced LBs, also including a USC transfer.  They bring back 3 somewhat-experienced guys in the secondary, as well as a few other guys who have been in the program a while.  Again, more details on this later.

The schedule sets up pretty nicely.  Ole Miss breaking in a new QB, not having played in a bowl.  Texas breaking in new coordinators, and perhaps a new QB.  Utah which loses all but one playmaker on offense and will be coming off a game at USC.  UCF and Utah State at home.  A tough one at Oregon State mixed with a bunch of easy WAC games, minus the game at Hawaii which is more difficult.

Expectations
A bowl game.  Somewhere.  They have no contracts in place, but will probably be high enough in the food chain to warrant an at-large for a conference that does not fill its bowl allotments.

I do not anticipate any All-Americans, except perhaps Matt Reynolds and maybe more of a stretch Eathyn Manumaleuna.  It is still too early to tell how realistic an expectation it would be to put them as a ranked team, given their 4.5 tough games in September.  If they go 4-1, they are a ranked team.  If they are 3-2, they could get there.  If they are worse than that, I would be a bit surprised.

I would put 8 wins as a minimum expectation.  Frankly, there are 6 games they will win (Utah State, San Jose State, Idaho State, at Louisiana Tech, Idaho, and New Mexico State).  They will go at least 2-4 in the other 6.  There is not a game among the 6 that they absolutely could not win.  That is where Bronco has brought the BYU program (aided by Ole Miss, Texas, and Oregon State each going 5-7 this season, Utah looking so pedestrian the last 5 games of the season, and UCF/Hawaii struggling in their bowl games, though UCF did hang on to beat an SEC team 10-6, albeit a 6-7 Georgia team, that had two realistic shots at the game-winning TD in the last 10 seconds...).