SDSU-BYU Prediction, 1/26/2011

SDSU Guarding Jimmer
When playing a superstar, as Fredette has been this season, there are two schools of thought.  1) Guard him one-on-one and do not let anybody else beat you: force Jimmer to score 60 points to beat you.  2) Put the entire focus of your defense on him and make the supporting cast beat you.  In the NBA particularly, both of these philosophies have been well-tested: both have worked beautifully and both have failed miserably.  Sometimes Kobe Bryant went off for 70 and it was enough for the Lakers to win, and sometimes he goes 11 for 36.  Sometimes Lebron ended games in Cleveland with a triple-double, including 10+ assists, and sometimes Lebron's Cavalier teammates shot under 30%.  I am not comparing Jimmer to Kobe and Lebron, just pointing out that both strategies can work and both can fail.

It appears SDSU is planning to employ the second philosophy.  This means that, barring Jimmer still going off for 40 points even with 5 SDSU defenders focused on him, this game will come down to the "other guys" on the team.  Jackson Emery must hit his threes, Kyle Collinsworth must finish around the rim, Noah Hartsock and Brandon Davies must make the open shots they get as the defense can reacts, and Logan Magnusson must get offensive rebounds as the floor opens up with the extra attention on Jimmer.  They don't all need to be successful.  However, they'll need to combine for 40+ points and grab 5 or more offensive rebounds, which would require 3 of them to do quite well.  Of course, if they pay that kind of attention to Jimmer and they still get Jimmered: good night Aztecs.

BYU Protecting the Glass
San Diego State leads the nation in percentage of missed shots rebounded, i.e. they are the best statistical offensive rebounding team in all of college basketball.  BYU must do 2 things: 1) prevent them from getting rebounds and 2) make them pay for crashing the boards so hard.  However, doing both is a difficult proposition.  To prevent them from rebounding takes great team rebounding, i.e. it takes all 5 guys rebounding.  To make them pay for crashing the boards takes having guys ready to run in transition when the defensive rebound is secured, i.e. it takes 1 or 2 guys not rebounding.

Last season in two games against SDSU, BYU limited the Aztecs to 7 offensive rebounds in Provo.  BYU also had 17 fast break opportunities off of securing rebounds.  This netted 20 points, 5 SDSU fouls, and two Aztec timeouts while BYU only committed 3 turnovers directly as a result of trying to run in transition.  [Fast break opportunities are shot attempts or SDSU fouls committed within 10 seconds of a BYU defensive rebound.]  That is preventing SDSU from getting rebounds and punishing them for committing too many guys to the offensive glass.  11 of the 17 opportunities came in the first half.  BYU will probably need a similar performance tonight: hold SDSU to under 10-12 offensive boards and get 15+ points, draw 4+ fouls, and force 2+ timeouts to be taken, all while taking care of the ball in transition.

Prediction
Well, now comes the moment that I have debated back and forth all week.  SDSU had one major advantage and one major disadvantage: they had a bye.  They got rest and they had time to come up with a gameplan.  But they have had a week of being asked about this game by everyone they know, they have had time to soak in the hype of the game, and they have had time to think about it.  Anxiety must be killing them.  But, at the same time, they are well-prepared and well-rested.  Which one will prove more crucial in Provo tonight?

I have misjudged this BYU all season.  I have treated them like a typical BYU team.  A typical BYU team would have lost two or three non-conference games.  A typical BYU team would have folded under the bright lights of Vegas.  A typical BYU team would have let Utah hang in the game long enough to have a chance late.  A typical BYU team would miss wide open shots all night at home against this top 10 SDSU team.  This is no typical BYU team and Jimmer is no typical player.  Jimmer cannot win this game by himself, but he can keep BYU in the game long enough for other players to step up.  If Jimmer starts slow, his teammates can carry the load until he has one of those 16-points-in-5-minutes bursts.  That is the beauty of this BYU team.  The home crowd energizes the role players.  The altitude gets SDSU sucking wind.  22,700 strong will be witnesses tonight of an atypical BYU team.  BYU pulls off the win: BYU 78, SDSU 72.

Those of you aware of my track record on picking BYU games this year, probably cringe and wish I would have picked against them...sorry.  It's "go" time, and Jimmer and this BYU team are "go" players.  Win this game, and I buy into a possible Elite Eight run.  Lose, well, lose and maybe this is a typical BYU team after all...